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04-07-2016, 05:59 PM
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#851 | ||
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Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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The 76ers had a deal set with Atlanta to land Dennis Schroder at the deadline that the Hawks backed out of at the last minute. It's not like Hinkie was sitting around doing nothing but lose and stockpiling picks. Quote:
They can also look to the Suns and Bucks as cautionary tales of why you don't try to take shortcuts when rebuilding. |
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04-07-2016, 06:06 PM
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#852 | |||
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2003
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And the Sixers had the worst outlook of all those teams at the time because they'd traded their best player, their previous two first round picks, and two conditional future firsts for ANDREW BYNUM. The only comparably bad situation from the recent past or the foreseeable future will be the Nets, and at least free agents would be more likely to want to play in Brooklyn. How many times does that idea need to be repeated, or that you are arbitrarily setting 20 wins as the cut-off for 'unwatchable' basketball. If you think a team that wins 25, 28, 32 games is more watchable because it loses just the same to the actually good opponents while being able to handle the Philadelphias of the world thanks to some average veteran who makes more money than Philly's starting five combined (without realizing where that veteran's salary is ultimately coming from), well, a fool and his money are easily parted. Quote:
Pretty much every shitty team can say it is 'on the upswing' until it isn't. You can play out the string, take your lottery season or first-round playoff stomping, talk yourself into the rookie you drafted, etc. until your team performs under expectations, the sky is falling, and you make a stupid panic trade. It takes guts to say "yeah, our guy got Rookie of the Year, but is he really that great?" and make a move. The easy, mediocre path in the NBA would have been for Philadelphia let inertia take them forward, win 20-25 games the following season and probably stagnate the season after that. Then, Michael Carter-Williams is an easy scapegoat because he had so much promise his rookie season, you were told he was the centerpiece of the team going forward because he won ROY and maybe got some lucrative extension, but he just never put the work in to develop a jump shot or whatever. Now he's the one the fans will say set the team back a few years because he had the nerve to be a basketball player with limitations who accepted the contract offered to him. Quote:
Yes, if there's one type of blueprint NBA fans need, it's for more Prokhorovs and Buss children who will guarantee them the team will be contenders in X amount of years. Sure, they'll end up being wrong and will likely do something stupid and dig themselves into an even bigger hole the second it seems like they're not making constant progress towards that arbitrary goal, but it sure feels nice and comforting to hear someone tell you that it's gonna be all right  Thank God the Wolves didn't trade away Garnett for a bag of balls. Even better! They traded Thad Young (who they traded a first-rounder and a couple other players for) so KG could be a glorified assistant coach who costs $8 million/year while taking up a roster spot and cap space. If you want KG's leadership, you could have waited a few months for Brooklyn to buy him out and then brought him in for cheap, but that wouldn't have gotten the good fans of Minnesota to buy tickets to meaningless games last February that KG didn't even suit up for. Last edited by nol : 04-07-2016 at 06:16 PM. |
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04-07-2016, 06:17 PM
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#853 | |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Las Vegas
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You mean a team who traded to acquire picks and had four 1st rounders in 2009 and draft guards (two b2b) and turned around by trading the most productive of the four for a future first round draft pick? Well I'm glad Heinke was so deep in the process that he couldn't back out of drafting the same position (oh wait...) or couldn't help from trading talent to develop for a future first round pi (oh wait...). So he really has followed the Wolves process. I'm sure the fans will be excited when the 76ers finally break 26 wins with those 13? 2nd round picks that teams owe them. This hasn't even begun to look at the part of the process that no one talks about. He really like Porzingus and wanted to draft him. The problem is that hte player and the agent didn't want to sign up for the process. --Miller didn't make it easy for Philadelphia to draft Porzingis at No. 3. The Sixers wouldn't be afforded Porzingis' physical, nor get a private workout, nor even a face-to-face meeting. After most of the pro day executives cleared out of the gym in Vegas in mid-June, 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie lingered to meet with Miller. Hinkie stopped him in the lobby area and asked Miller about a chance to sit down and visit with Porzingis. "You said that I would get a meeting with him here," Hinkie told Miller. "I said, 'I'd try,' and it's not going to work out, Sam," Miller responded. An awkward silence lingered, the GM and agent, standing and staring. The Porzingis camp wanted no part of the Sixers' situation at No 3. Miller couldn't stop Philadelphia from drafting Porzingis, but he could limit the information they had to make a decision. And did. No physical. No meeting. No workout. The Sixers passed on Porzingis on draft night, clearing the way for the Knicks to select him. -- Miller is also Nerlens Noel's agent. Guess who would not staying in Philly when he gets the chance during the process? Hollis Thompson is also his client. He's also the agent of some guy in Minnesota named KG. When KG takes his front office job he might have the inside track on some of Miller's new free agents to come to Minnesota instead of where Heinke starts Process 2.0. (and I've come full circle) In his 13 page letter, he never reflected on what went wrong with the process with regards to having players lose and lose often. |
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04-07-2016, 07:14 PM
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#854 | |||
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2003
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Yeah, the team had plenty of extra picks because they had so mismanaged Garnett's prime that they had to completely tear apart the roster; that gives a rebuild a much better starting point than having to figure what to do with the Sixers' in 2012-13. Even though watching any basketball in the past 3 years would tell you the players on that roster didn't have much of a future together, let's say you know something everyone else doesn't and they could have managed to be to competitive. Congrats! Then they'd owe their first round pick to Orlando for a trade that (for the 1000th time) was made before Hinkie (who you seem pretty obsessed with for not being able to spell his name. It's 6 letters long) was hired. Quote:
Oh man, a player's agent wanted his client to get drafted one spot later and play in New York? I need to find my fainting couch. Quote:
"You hired me to execute a strategy that everyone knew going in could take a long time, but now you don't like where it is three years in and I don't agree with the changes you're trying to make." |
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04-08-2016, 09:32 AM
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#855 | |
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Wolverine Studios
Join Date: Oct 2003
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First I'm not a Hinkie defender - I don't disagree with the concept but I think he both a) made bad decisions like drafting MCW (which in fairness he did dump him) and drafting Okafor when you already have Noel and Embiid and b) played a too-long version of this game by drafting Embiid and Saric. Yeah he didn't know Embiid would miss two years but first it was Noel who would miss a year and then Embiid for sure would miss one and everyone knew Saric wasn't coming right away - once, sure. Twice, eh? Three guys that you used very high picks on? It was just terrible execution of a decent idea. How different would this team look if you had Randle and Rodney Hood (those would have been my picks at their spots) along with Noel and then assuming Randle still would have gotten hurt they would have been in the 3-5 range in 2015 and could have traded down to 6th or something for Darren Collison, the pick (which could have been Justise Winslow) and another future pick - Collison, Hood, Winslow, Randle and Noel is a competent lineup with four guys who have very high upside, probably would have ended up the lottery one more time plus you would still have all those future 1sts coming. You would have had "the process" without essentially putting a d-league squad on the floor and that was the real issue that was so distasteful about this. It's one thing to lose with guys people perceive to have some talent and promise and future - its another to lose with guys who more than likely would not play for any other team in the league and have zero future with an even sort-of good team. That said - I don't think that's a fair comparison nor a banner to be waiving. First Portland both had a legitimate all-star in Aldridge and nailed a draft pick with Lillard who immediately was a stud. With three years of those guys playing at an extremely high level they went 148-96, finished worse each season and didn't even make the playoffs last year. They nailed the McCollum pick too and now have an excellent backcourt surrounded by guys who are good role players but will never be anything more than that. Houston totally imploded, New Orleans was a complete disaster - Portland proved that what matters is consistency from the top and solid leadership/coaching. I think that if you apply that to HOU, NO, SAC, PHX and even MIN those teams would be better than Portland. In the end this Portland team isn't going anywhere without landing a big time free agent but they're no comparison to Philly either. Philly hasn't drafted a Lillard yet. Without him to not only produce what he does but also make it easier on guys like McCollum they would be rivaling anyone in the league for the top lottery spot. Detroit? Maybe but Detroit is much later in "the process". Again, Detroit has an elite player to build around in Drummond and thank goodness SVG finally realized that the Drummond/Monroe combo was never going to work but remember this team hasn't been to the playoffs since 08-09 and if it weren't for the complete meltdown of the Bulls and Wizards that streak would still be alive. I actually like the makeup of the team with Jackson, Drummond and Harris (and wished we would have taken Winslow but Johnson has shown some good stuff). Harris only came about because they undid two previous mistakes (Jennings/Ilyasova). This could be the route Philly is destined to be on by undoing MCW and possibly one of Okafor/Embiid. Detroit was never going to be a FA destination for any of the top players so the best they could hope for was take advantage of solid players that other teams wanted to unload for whatever reason and they've done that giving up virtually nothing for the chance to resign Jackson and trading broken down parts for Harris. Boston I think is a good comparison for the opposite of what Philly did but is that something to aspire to? The East blows and they have a really good coach who's able to push the right buttons most nights and get a team of hard working, blue collar guys to play over their heads. Thomas, Bradley, Smart, Crowder, Amir - I love what these guys bring to the table but where's the next level? I still think you would rather be Indiana, Chicago (assuming they keep Butler) or Washington than Boston. Hell I'd rather be Milwaukee than Boston because Giannis is such a freak. The bottom line is that Hinkie had no control over the most important part of the whole thing - the lottery. If Philly won the lottery and grabbed KAT people would be fawning over "the process" and Hinkie would be lauded as a genious for having KAT with Noel and Saric on the way and the ability to trade Embiid for something else good plus a ton of picks in the bank and plenty of salary to bring someone amazing to Philly. Even if he won the lottery the year before and took Wiggins he wouldn't have the Embiid mess on his hands and the team would look better than it does now. At the end of the day winning the lottery was essential to the plan and it never happened - he then compounded it by drafting guys who wouldn't play for a year (or ever so far) - what could have been a great plan ended up blowing up in his face due to poor luck and poor execution of the hands he was dealt. |
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04-08-2016, 11:44 AM
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#856 |
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Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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Here are the players who have been taken after Philly's pick since Hinkie came in:
2015 - Porzingis, Hezonja, Mudiay, Winslow, Myles Turner, Trey Lyles and Devin Booker. I'd rather have any of the above players for Philly over Okafor given their other guys. They fill a bigger need and look to have a higher upside. 2014 - Aaron Gordon, Marcus Smart, Julius Randle and even Exum are guys I'd rather have than Embiid. Throw in LaVine, TJ Warren, Nurkic, Gary Harris, Rodney Hood and Clint Capela as guys I'd rather have than Saric. And these are just first round comps - not even mentioning the Jordan Clarkson types in the 2nd. Once again, the Sixers could have had Gordon or Smart and LaVine/Harris/Nurkic instead of Embiid and Saric. 2013 - CJ McCollum was right after Noel. Throw in Giannis, Schroeder and Gobert as guys right after MCW. It's not like Hinkie "barely missed" on a couple guys in bad drafts - he pretty much blew every pick in a 3 year stretch where he had 5 picks in the top 12. Normally, that's no big deal. I mean Boston missed on a bunch of James Youngs and Feb Melos in prior drafts. But, Boston wasn't putting all their eggs in the draft basket. They traded for Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder, signed FAs like Evan Turner, Amir Johnson and kept vets like Avery Bradley and Sullinger. Had Philly done other transactions to improve the team - the draft misses could be covered up. But Hinkie completely blew the Embiid and Saric picks and left a bunch of better options on the table with Okafor and Noel. If you are going to stake the entire rebuilding process on the draft and draft only, you need to hit paydirt on atleast 3 of those 5 picks (a la OKC). Now, if you want to take a smarter route and trade for a Reggie Jackson, Tobias Harris, Isaiah Thomas or Jae Crowder and find some nice FAs like Aminu, Ed Davis, Kyle Korver or Paul Milsap - you can afford to miss on a few picks. But Hinkie gambled everything on nailing his 5 lottery picks and he just didn't do that. So, I think it is extremely fair to call an audible 3+ years in when this team is light years away from fielding a competitive team and created a terrible reputation that is preventing them from signing/trading for players even if they wanted to. The morale here is that it is short-sighted to only allow yourself one way to improve in the NBA (high draft picks). If you look at all the up and coming teams (Boston, Utah, Portland, Detroit, Milwaukee and even the T-Wolves) - every one of them used a trade or FA to capture a key building block. Now, that doesn't guarantee success, but it gives you a higher probability than just praying for good lottery balls and nailing those picks. Which, to come full circle, wasn't that the point of this "process" to begin with? Last edited by Arles : 04-08-2016 at 04:03 PM. |
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04-08-2016, 01:56 PM
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#857 |
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Wolverine Studios
Join Date: Oct 2003
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I'm not going to kill him on Noel - he's looked very good at times especially when not playing with Okafor. As for MCW absolutely - I never thought he was a NBA player and Giannis would have made so much more sense for a team who was all about playing for a few years out. At least he got a valuable asset for MCW though but it won't amount to what Giannis is going to be worth.
I don't even hate the Embiid pick in of itself because if healthy he's the #1 pick in the draft and if he comes close to what his projected ceiling was he's a franchise changing talent. You can wait a year for that guy. The problem is he just taken a guy who sat out a year hurt and punted the pick a few picks later down the road with Saric and it turns out Noel really needs to play the 5 to be effective so on the basis of those items it was totally the wrong pick as was Saric. Porzingis was a guy he wanted and Porzingis and his agent wanted nothing to do with Philly. They did everything possible to prevent Hinkie from taking him so I understand why he didn't pull the trigger there. Had he been Darko 2.0 that was the end of his job. What I don't understand is why he took Okafor. It's like Matt Millen selecting WRs. I very much agree a guy like Winslow or Booker would have been great for the team but you couldn't take that guy at 3. He needed to either trade some of those assets he collected to move up to 2 (hell he should have offered everything he had to Minny for 1) but at least he could have gotten Russell or moved down, picked up one of those guys plus a capable NBA player/more picks. Hinkie absolutely blew the drafts - like I said I'm no defender of him and I think it's the right move to show him the door. I only defended bottoming out and building through the draft but yes you have to hit the picks to do that. Portland and Detroit wouldn't be even as far as they are (which isn't very far really) without both completely nailing a draft pick four years ago. If you take Lillard and Drummond away Portland is a dumpster fire and Detroit probably has a ton of money tied up in Greg Monroe and continues to be a perpetual lottery team. Boston is just quirky in that its almost like Stevens coaching at Butler - he's got a bunch of scrappy guys that nobody really wanted and he pushes the right buttons to make it work but I can't see them ever being any better than what they are unless they somehow bring in a big talent. It's almost feels like they have all the pieces of the Mavs title team...except Dirk. Why do you want to be that team? I'd rather be a team like Phoenix that has two potential superstar guards (and Brandon Knight who needs to go) along with Len who looked very good at times this year. You need stars to win - the Pistons team that won in 04 was such an outlier (and 12 years ago now). Look at every champion since. Spurs x3, Wade/Shaq Heat, Kobe/Pau/Bynum Lakers x2, Boston's big 3, Dirk Mavs, Heat big 3 x2 and Golden State. If you aspire to be Boston (or Portland or Detroit) you'll be a probable playoff team that could squeak out one series if you don't end up as a 7/8 seed. Why try to be that team? Last edited by Gary Gorski : 04-08-2016 at 01:57 PM. |
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04-08-2016, 03:03 PM
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#858 | ||
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2003
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Quote:
Uhh, MCW was the lowest-drafted ROY since 1988 and they got a higher future pick for him. That's much better than what you normally end up with for the 11th pick, especially in a draft as weak as 2013. Any team drafting before Philadelphia that year except Orlando (who picked 2nd) and maybe Portland would currently be overjoyed to have the Lakers' pick rather than the player they drafted. Quote:
Right, any of those teams is one unlucky break like that from being back to square one (to say nothing of where teams like Minnesota or the Lakers or the Pelicans would be without being fortunate in the lottery). That's already happened multiple times to Philadelphia between injuries and overall lottery luck (not only their own picks not yet moving up but the Lakers/Heat picks never moving down and transferring to them), and they're still set up for the majority of their talented players to be arriving this year. These past two seasons were 100 percent lost for Philadelphia - they had no first rounder had they made the playoffs so it was a choice between being bottom-three bad or basically the Kings with no DeMarcus Cousins. Everyone just makes the same tired arguments about Philadelphia 'shutting off' their options to improve - no, if they'd gotten someone like Corey Joseph or Jeremy Lin they'd just be the 2nd or 3rd-worst rather than the worst team this season. One of those guys on his own is not doing anything, and then when you say 'well that's why you sign other good players to fit around them' you're now spending just as much money as any other mediocre team for a roster that still isn't close to playoff caliber. You and Arles use a very strange definition of 'blowing the draft.' If any team at all drafts a better player with a later pick, that's blowing it? The whole freaking point of Philadelphia's strategy is that they don't need to be much better than average when it comes to making selections once you actually get to make those selections. They could have drafted Booker, Turner, Lyles, Cam Payne or Winslow not by moving down, but by trading an average veteran for them. That's what they did 2 years ago by trading Thad Young, but Chris Bosh ended up with blood clots and as a result Miami was in position to tank the last few weeks of the regular season and keep the pick. The CJ McCollum part is particularly funny. First, he also was injured at the time of the draft and was to miss most of his rookie season as well, and if there's one thing that's clear (when using selective 20-20 hindsight) it's that drafting any player who will be injured is automatically a bad move! Also, McCollum is not good at defense and therefore not much better than Noel on balance despite being 3 years older than Noel; I guarantee you the majority of teams in the league would prefer Noel going forward. Last edited by nol : 04-08-2016 at 03:47 PM. |
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04-08-2016, 03:50 PM
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#859 | |||
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Wolverine Studios
Join Date: Oct 2003
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I don't care that he was ROY - he had free reign on an awful team to put up numbers. He shot 70% from the line, 44% from 2P and 26% from 3P in that ROY campaign. He was replaced as PG in Philly and now has been replaced as PG in Milwaukee by Giannis. He's not a good NBA player. Yes the pick they will get will undoubtedly be a better asset but still not better than Giannis will be and for a team playing for 5 years down the road why wouldn't they have been the ones to take a flier on him. It's not like drafting Caboclo or something - there was hype around Giannis. Quote:
What exactly was their drafting strategy? They drafted a PG who was neither a good playmaker or shooter, they drafted 3 centers in consecutive seasons and drafted a 6'10 Euro who is an all around skilled player and excellent overseas but is too slow to defend wings and probably not strong enough to defend true PFs and hasn't shown up yet. Sure you don't need to end up with the best guy if you're picking capable players and surrounding them with other capable NBA vets but 2 of the 5 picks have never played in the NBA and the other 3 were surrounded with d-league talent. Again if you never draft the superstar of the bunch (and he's 0/5 unless Embiid ever gets healthy and turns into Hakeem-lite) you're not going to be great and if you don't surround non-superstars with NBA level talent you're going to be impossibly bad. Quote:
I would prefer Noel myself - never said I wouldn't. In fact I think if you let Noel play the 5 and essentially do what Drummond is good at he's going to be kind of similar (although obviously not as good of a rebounder). As for McCollum who knows what he would be if he was on Philly and Noel was on Portland. I doubt he would be nearly as effective without Lillard next to him. I also never said that drafting an injured player is a bad move - I said it was a bad move in drafting Embiid BECAUSE his last pick not only just sat out a year injured and happened to not project realistically as anything but a center but he followed Embiid 9 picks later with another guy who wasn't going to be on the roster. Embiid was totally worth a flier for some team and I would have taken him over anyone not named Wiggins, Parker or Randle. Realistically how would Noel and Embiid have worked? Clearly much like how Noel and Okafor worked which was awful. But now he ended up with all 3 of them and two of them have to go because none of them can play together (if Embiid is ever healthy). That's not good drafting - its one thing if you're talking about late picks and you're picking whoever might be the BPA but he spent a 6th and two 3rds on the same position. As I said before the strategy and idea behind it was totally logical but the execution was anything but. Maybe if he had surrounded these guys with some Jae Crowder types it might have looked at least somewhat like they were going somewhere but at the end of the day you've got Noel and Okafor (one of which you have to trade), who knows if you have anything in Embiid or Saric and a bunch of picks - basically you're still in the starting blocks after 3 years. That wasn't supposed to be part of "the process". Last edited by Gary Gorski : 04-08-2016 at 03:51 PM. |
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04-08-2016, 04:19 PM
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#860 |
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Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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I think Gary makes some good points and there is a strategy to where you bottom out for 2-3 years, reload and then take a shot. But, that strategy has to be more than selling any player with a pulse for future picks (including your own draft picks), passing on any FA with NBA talent, never trading for a solid player and putting all your eggs into 4-5 lottery picks. Unless you hit home runs with atleast 2 of those 5 picks, you are still going to be in bad shape after the 3-year process.
Draft picks and young players are assets, but you can't just keep punting on them and asking for more time. Part of the reason he failed is that he took high risk guys like Noel, Saric and Embiid with the idea that they would still be terrible the next season and get another pick. That's not the best way to draft. You don't want to be "upset" if 2-3 of your draft picks end up having years like Porzingis or Booker and you suddenly have a competent team. I feel like that's how Hinkie would have reacted and he may have sold a guy like Booker for future picks to keep tanking and have a shot at that superstar. Your odds are better if you bottom out for a season or two, take your best shot at a star in the draft and then collect assets you can move for a young talent. There's no reason Hinkie shouldn't have been kicking the tires on trades for Isaiah Thomas, Tobias Harris, Reggie Jackson, Jae Crowder, Eric Bledsoe and similar guys who have been available the past three seasons. Had he done this during his first two seasons, he might have had an environment that people were interested in joining and more FAs/final year guys would you have been open to Philly. He probably wouldn't have had the issue with getting Porzingis had he taken a more balanced approach. Even if "the process" worked this year and Hinkie got the first pick - you don't think Ben Simmons and his agent would have been campaigning for Philly to not take him? How about when Noel (his best pick) is a free agent in 2017 - do you think he would even consider anything other than a 1-year QO with Philly? If you are constantly trying to suck, no one is going to want to play there. You get 1-2 seasons of tanking before improvement needs to be there. That's the way it works and it was naive for Hinkie to think he could bottom out for 3-4 seasons and not face repercussions with ownership, have agents politic against his team in the draft and potential FAs (that might fit his long term strategy) to completely shun him. The only people on Philly right now are draft picks and young players with no other suitors. That's not the way to make a winning environment even if you get lucky and land a star. Okafor and Noel may be better than we think, but when they play with D-league guards it is hard to tell. You don't think after 2-3 years of that frustration they will be trying to do everything in their power to get out? You need atleast a few good pros on your team to help the young guys and ensure they develop. Last edited by Arles : 04-08-2016 at 04:23 PM. |
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04-08-2016, 06:04 PM
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#861 | |||
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2003
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It. was. the. 11th. pick. Most of the time the 11th pick doesn't even stick around in the league and is a total sunk cost. As everyone in this thread likes to say, shooting is the easiest skill to learn. Philly took a player who could have been very intriguing had he developed a jump shot and then used the information at their disposal to quickly conclude that wasn't likely to happen and traded him while other teams still thought enough of the possibility to give up a lot of value for him. Look what Milwaukee got for waiting an extra year to decide that a young player (Knight) wasn't going to be in their future plans - MCW! Quote:
I don't think I could name a player drafted in 2014 who has done anything to look more likely to become a good player than he was going into the season. Exum tore his ACL, Randle has been bad (43% shooting from the field, bad defense, no three-point shot), Nurkic has been hurt and bad while playing, Smart's jumper has gotten even worse. Aaron Gordon did some cool dunks in the dunk contest, I guess. It's easy to talk about any of those players in dismissive language, too! Some of them will get better, some of them won't and will end up wasted picks. When a non-Sixers young player is injured, it's automatically assumed that the player will return at full strength, if not better than before whereas a Sixers player is written off. Quote:
Because they're both good. You're probably one of those people who was hand-wringing about how Westbrook and Durant were gonna fit together because they were both 'scorers.' If you think Okafor and Embiid were ever even close to the same level as far as defensive ability or potential would be concerned, I don't know what sport you've been watching. Karl-Anthony Towns is playing alongside Dieng right now in Minnesota - why would you say that particular combination of two centers doesn't happen to be a disaster? |
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04-08-2016, 09:24 PM
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#862 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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I believe this has been mentioned in the thread previously but ... it really is interesting that the Sixers are a more compelling discussion than virtually everything else in the league this year.
The Ws (hip, trendy guy that I am) are damned impressive but at some point they basically feels like watching a video game on medium difficulty. The Spurs are pretty darned good team but does anyone outside of San Antonio really think that even they could win a best of 7 against GS? That leaves the Cavs and their dysfunction, and even that wouldn't be interesting if it didn't involve you know who. Maybe it's like this every year though, I mean basically it was the angst generated by the Miami super roster that revived my (still limited) interest in the NBA, I could actually root for them just for the hater hilarity that followed every time they won a game. This year, heck, I don't have anything against Golden State particularly so no fun in rooting against, but watching them do their thing right now is about as much fun as watching the UConn women run over people. {shrug}
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"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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04-08-2016, 09:35 PM
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#863 | |||
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Wolverine Studios
Join Date: Oct 2003
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Last 3 years picked at 11 or later 2015 : Turner, Lyles, Booker, Justin Anderson, Portis, RHJ 2014 : McDermott, LaVine, Warren, Gary Harris, Hood, Capela 2013 : Giannis, Schroeder, Dieng, Gobert Don't pretend 11 is a total crap shoot that really has little chance of having value. I don't know who thinks shooting is the easiest skill to learn but its not me. MCW couldn't shoot in college, hasn't been able to shoot yet and won't be able to shoot. And I said that it was a good move getting rid of him and getting what they did for him. The only bad move was picking him in the first place but at least he did something positive with it in the end. Quote:
Embiid hasn't.played.one.second. He's also had issues over that time with gaining weight and other assorted things that may or may not have screwed up his recovery from the initial surgery. He also came in with a giant question mark given his particular injury and the impact it has had on the careers of other big men. It has nothing to do with being on the Sixers. I think its fair to legitimately question what kind of career he will have given that he's missed two years already with his particular injury. Maybe you're holding out hope for Greg Oden still? Now maybe Embiid fully recovers and becomes a stud all-star center (I sure hope so since I own him in a dynasty fantasy league) but I think its at least fair to question that at this point. Quote:
No, I certainly never had an issue with Westbrook and Durant - in fact that's pretty much what Philly (or anyone) would love to replicate with the multiple early lottery picks. It has nothing to do with Okafor and Embiid skill wise - If Embiid ever plays to his potential he will be WAAAAY better than Okafor. The issue as a matter of fact is exactly what I spent such a focus on in the latest version of DDS: Pro Basketball. The problem is Noel can't operate offensively anywhere outside of the paint. He's shooting 28/111 - 25.2% outside the paint. He's not a good passer or good with the ball and if you look at his stats when Okafor plays as opposed to the games he didn't you would see a huge difference. Noel is most effective running the pick and roll where he can dive to the basket - hard to do that with Okafor, Embiid or any other big clogging up the paint. It has nothing to do with height or centers as you're trying to point out with KAT and Dieng - both of those players can step out and be a threat from midrange (KAT even from 3). Either one of those guys could work with Noel but Noel/Okafor doesn't work. Drummond/Monroe didn't work. Noel/Embiid won't work. Last edited by Gary Gorski : 04-08-2016 at 09:36 PM. |
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04-09-2016, 11:15 AM
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#864 | |||||
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2003
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Quote:
Yet you list 16 players out of 57 who were drafted between 11 and 30 those years. That's the definition of a crapshoot, especially when half of these guys definitely would not have returned a lottery pick if traded and aren't even guaranteed to be as productive as Carter-Williams (pretend you hadn't heard someone else say that Bobby Portis, Justin Anderson, and TJ Warren were 'draft steals' at some point and just look at what they have actually done so far). Even someone like Devin Booker has been putting up numbers alongside D-league players (again, which is only an issue when a Philadelphia rookie has produced well); Phoenix is 9-39 since he started getting heavy minutes. That's the exact same record Philadelphia has over that span. He's not a good defender at all (and may never be) and has shot under 30% from three since the All-Star break. The very structure of the list shows that you erroneously assume all rookies will automatically progress; you probably would have listed Tony Snell as an example of late first round value in 2013 (he got more minutes than Justin Anderson did and played for a better team) but two years of limited growth have made him an afterthought. There are a handful of 2014-2015 players you listed you'd do the same to if they don't significantly improve next season - they'll be the same players they are now, but you just don't have the benefit of hindsight to identify them. Quote:
Just do a quick search for Ben Simmons in this thread and hold onto your hat! Quote:
Most of these guys you so confidently list as better picks than Embiid have been injured and not played too many seconds either (or worse, have played significant minutes and shown themselves to not be that good), and these are guys who would have needed to have everything go right to even approximate what Embiid was capable of doing immediately out of Kansas. Nobody cared that Julius Randle put on a bunch of weight when he was injured because 1) a basketball player putting on weight while not being able to practice and getting back into shape once he resumes physical activity is a non-story and 2) Randle just isn't that good and he wasn't on the 76ers. Quote:
If Dieng qualifies as a threat from midrange Embiid certainly does. In addition, Embiid and Noel would be a better defensive tandem, but even that is ignoring the simplest explanation that you can trade whomever you want when you're concerned with getting a better 'fit.' Quote:
Because it's a good litmus test for who's actually thinking of things and who's just running in circles based on whatever happened 15 minutes ago: "They should have done what Phoenix did! I mean, what Atlanta did! I mean, what Milwaukee did! No, actually Portland!" Last edited by nol : 04-09-2016 at 12:09 PM. |
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04-09-2016, 11:30 AM
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#865 | ||
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Yes. Would I favor them? No, but I think they have a decent chance of pulling the upset, mostly like I'd take Warriors in 6 as the most likely outcome at this point. They aren't the only team that has a chance at Golden State -- the Thunder could do it as well although it's much less likely. Stranger things have happened, 1 seeds have lost in the first round, the best Spurs regular-season team ever(prior to this year) got beat by Memphis that way. That's why all the 'stat heads' have Golden State as a coin-flip possibility to win the title. Too many things, some of them like injuries out of their control, could go wrong at this point. It really comes down to who is playing well/healthy/etc. The Spurs in 2014 are a great example. They almost lost to Dallas in the first round ... and then started playing better at the end of that series, and completely reached their peak by the time they needed to against OKC/Miami. But that doesn't always happen, there's a lot of variance in possible, and even in fairly likely, outcomes. Quote:
As a basketball guy, I think it's very entertaining. I don't get sick of watching Curry do things that nobody else has ever been able to do at the same level. I guess the differences between us at this point are that I think there are other interesting things(in particular, how teams like Boston and Toronto do in the East playoffs), I don't view the Warriors' repeating without breaking a sweat as totally inevitable(even the 72-win Bulls were pushed to 6 by Seattle) though of course they are the clear favorites and should be, and so on. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 04-09-2016 at 11:32 AM. |
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04-09-2016, 02:32 PM
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#866 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
Yeah, that's definitely a difference. I'm not even able to work up any genuine interest in how the Hawks fare as a playoff afterthought this year, much less the teams you mention. It's a two team league this year, three simply because LBJ is LBJ and he's interesting even if his team really isn't.
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"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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04-10-2016, 08:22 PM
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#867 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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In San Antonio on the back end of a back-to-back, again, and the W's get it done.
Hit 72 wins, ends the streak of losing in SA since 96/97 and also ensures their own home winning streak record can't be matched.
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Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal Last edited by kingfc22 : 04-10-2016 at 08:58 PM. |
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04-10-2016, 08:24 PM
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#868 |
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Dark Cloud
Join Date: Apr 2001
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Glad they tied it at least. I think they'll beat Memphis for the record, but either way, at least we have to always reference this team future-wise. Just a great effort all year.
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FBCB / FPB3 Mods Last edited by Young Drachma : 04-10-2016 at 08:25 PM. |
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04-10-2016, 08:29 PM
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#869 |
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College Prospect
Join Date: Nov 2014
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Curry needs 8 more 3-pointers to hit 400, I think 41 points to average 30PPG for the season.
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04-10-2016, 09:03 PM
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#870 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Sydney, Australia
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Quote:
Re: shooting being the easiest skill to learn, I stand by that comment 100%. It doesn't mean it's easy and most guys will not put in the time needed to become great shooters, but that's really all the separates the freakishly good shooters and the not-so-freakishly good shooters - a ton of time in a gym with a ball putting up hundreds (or more - I've heard some guys taking up to 1,000) of shots a day. It's easy in theory for any professional basketballer to do that with their free time, but the reality is that most players don't. The guys out there hitting close to or over .500 do, though. As someone who played a high level of basketball through my youth, I can probably count on one hand the amount of hours we spent focused solely on shooting - and nearly all of that before we turned 16. You are expected to do this on your own time and not during team practice time, and that's the reason most professionals don't become great shooters.
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Politics, n. Strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles. --Ambrose Bierce |
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04-10-2016, 09:21 PM
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#871 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2007
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Was also the Spurs first go home loss of the season, could have been the first to go unbeaten at home. Curry was terrific and the fact he could still hit 400 3s is so insane. I mean, he will beat his own mark by at least 37%. Do that math with other records and think about it for a Minute... And doing it on 45% ...
__________________
“The only people for me are the mad ones, the ones who are mad to live, mad to talk, mad to be saved, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing, but burn, burn, burn, like fabulous yellow roman candles exploding like spiders across the stars and in the middle you see the blue centerlight pop and everybody goes "Awww!” |
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04-10-2016, 10:39 PM
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#872 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Sydney, Australia
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I'm a bit bummed the Spurs didn't win today, to be honest. I'm trying to delude myself that this season is a two-horse race, but it's just not the case. As good as the Spurs are, it will take a massive Curry shooting slump for 2-3 games to give them even half a chance.
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Politics, n. Strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles. --Ambrose Bierce |
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04-11-2016, 07:16 AM
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#873 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Eh, I don't think that game told us anything we didn't already know. The Spurs need to make a lot more shots than that to beat Golden State. You aren't going to shut down Curry, so you need to score consistently. Only Aldridge really held up his end. If Diaw is healthy that will have some effect, but I don't think anything there changed the basic outlook(San Antonio has a chance, but only if they play well on both ends. The better team usually wins and there's little doubt that's the Warriors).
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04-11-2016, 09:14 AM
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#874 | ||||
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Wolverine Studios
Join Date: Oct 2003
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Quote:
You said most of the time the 11th pick doesn't even stick around in the league so I pointed out guys who not only have stuck around but are either already good players or at least have the probability of being rotation players. Out of the last 10 years of #11 picks (Turner, McDermott, MCW, Myers Leonard, Klay Thompson, Cole Aldrich, Terrence Williams, Jerryd Bayless, Acie Law, JJ Redick) only 2 are no longer in the league (2009, 2007). That's not exactly "most" of #11 picks flaming out. Quote:
What are you talking about playing alongside d-league players? Alex Len, PJ Tucker, Tyson Chandler (certainly not what he once was), Mirza Teletovic - these guys are not D-league players. Yes Booker is not a great defender although compare his Def Rtg (109.4) and Def WS (.01) to Okafor (108.7 / .013), Russell (110.3 / .006) and even Towns (108.0 / .017) - nobody is in Kawhi/Draymond territory (96.1 / .068 averaged). The only really, really good defender IMO from this draft was Winslow and the numbers back that up (99.0 / .048) but a big factor in defense too is the team you play on. Miami is a top 5 defensive team, Phoenix, Philly and LA are all bottom 5. Also on the subject of Booker he's averaging nearly 20 a game in that time (yes its poor/bulk shooting except from the FT line where's he's figuring out how to get to 5-6 times a game) and oh yeah, he's 19 years old . Quote:
I think all rookies will automatically progress? Where do you get such an idea? Because I listed 6 guys from the past two drafts and only 4 from the prior one? Could it be the last two drafts had more talent? I did not think that of Tony Snell despite him having a couple of very nice games here and there. I don't think he's very good but I guess he could be listed as being capable of being a rotation player. You don't seem to like Justin Anderson much - he needs to improve his 3 point shooting but the last two weeks have proven he's capable of doing everything on the floor - he rebounds, he accumulates stocks, he doesn't turn the ball over much and he can score. He's probably not ever going to be an all-star but he can't be a better Jae Crowder? Quote:
I'm not sure what you read when I post but I didn't confidently list anyone as better picks than Embiid (other than KAT). In fact if everybody was 100% healthy going into a draft from the past two seasons and we threw out anything that has happened since college I would probably take Embiid for the #1 pick. I said Embiid was the wrong pick in hindsight for Philly because of the surrounding circumstances. Hinkie's plan hinged only on drafting players - he didn't trade for guys who could have been had cheap like Jackson or Thomas and he didn't bring in free agents (not even talking big free agents). The whole plan was build only from the draft which I'm not even faulting him for but in order for that plan to work you need to a) hit the picks and b) start making some progress from day one. Year one he trades his star point guard (who I love but his injury history makes me not slam Hinkie on this deal) and starts "the process" with a guy who is going to miss the entire year and another who really doesn't have what it takes to be a NBA point guard. Trades Hawes and Evan Turner for 2nd round picks. So essentially year one is an attempt to bottom out totally. Year two he drafts an injured guy and a euro and trades Thad Young for a nothing first to complete bottom out. Noel debuts and looks to have promise, plucks Covington from the NBDL who plays well, MCW shoots worse from 2, 3 and FT, with more TOs and less PPG and is shipped out for a good future first. Great deal for the future but after two full seasons Philly has possibly TWO future NBA player on the floor. Year three drafts another big man, previous year's selections still are hurt and overseas, trades for Stauskas who maybe can develop down the line, has to trade two second round picks to get Ish back after they let him walk, Noel/Okafor pairing totally unworkable. Three years in, best asset still hasn't seen the floor due to injury so has virtually no trade value, two other best assets are centers so at least one if not both have to be traded depending on Embiid, possibly three other future rosterable players (Smith, Stauskas, Covington) all who are probably best served in bench roles. The Sixers have been through 75% of Noel's rookie contract and 50% of Embiid's and what do they have? Even if all the stars align and Embiid plays next year and Saric comes over and they nail the pick this year (in a draft nobody is crazy about) they're only in the starting stage. Then they have to pay Noel or he will take a QO and walk after that. Then the next year repeat for Embiid and if he's anything as promised they will have to break the bank for him. This year the cap is set to explode - had the Sixers spent three years putting together a proven young core maybe with all the cap room someone good would take their money knowing they could a) get paid and b) play with good young players. Those are the reasons this was such a failure - you said #11 was basically worthless most of the time - what good was it to acquire a million second round picks then? Why give away Thad Young? He chose to completely strip it down to nothing but three years in and nobody really knows what they have other than some similar parts and a bunch of hopes that the other stuff that hasn't been on the floor or drafted yet will work out. Be honest - out of the ten worst teams (Denver, Sacramento, New Orleans, Minnesota, Phoenix, LA, Milwaukee, New York, Brooklyn and Philly) where would you put Philly in the list of teams you want to take over given everyone's situation at this very minute? I don't think anyone wants to be Brooklyn but who else can you put them over? |
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04-11-2016, 10:21 AM
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#875 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
Hmm ... an empty cupboard -- which seems to be what you're suggesting Philly is -- might be preferable to several of those situations IMO. Specifically? I'd personally at least look at the Philly job before taking Minnesota or Sacramento, as well as the aforementioned Brooklyn gig. And due to things like fan tolerance/expectations, maybe both LA & New York too.
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"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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04-11-2016, 10:39 AM
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#876 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Other than Bulls/Jordan fans, is anyone rooting against the Warriors getting to 73?
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04-11-2016, 10:57 AM
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#877 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
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Quote:
Its good for them as a team and it shows their dominance especially early in the season. I just wished it could have been done in a time when teams werent tanking, benching their starters, purposely losing to get higher odds in the lottery. Not a fault of Golden State at all just a flaw in the NBA right now. Teams didnt tank at this level back when the Bulls did this. |
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04-11-2016, 11:11 AM
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#878 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
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Quote:
Interesting conversation in regards to the Philadelphia rebuilding techniques. I agree that the strategy itself isnt such a terrible idea and also agree that the pieces just arent fitting the puzzle at all. I would probably consider Noel a strong piece of a puzzle down the road but what else have they drafted that they can bank on right now? These players also are missing out on learning from vets(possible reason Okafor had so many issues this past year) and learning how to win games. Sure, KG is an overpaid assistant but KAT is learning from a Hall of Famer and one of the most competitive players to ever play the game. 1. Minnesota - KAT/Wiggins appear to both be future All-Stars. Lavine has loads of upside. 2. New Orleans - Should be easy to build around Anthony Davis 3. Sacramento - Cousins has the talent to be the best big in the NBA. Bring in a respected coach and they are a top 5 team in the West. 4. LA Lakers - Will attract marquee free agents 5. New York Knicks - See above 6. Phoenix - Loaded young backcourt. Bledsoe could lead a team 7. Milwaukee - Giannis is a potential All Star to build around. They just dont have much else going and appear to have made a mistake with Monroe 8. Philadelphia - They have accumulated some talent but nothing that really makes sense. Perhaps they can trade out of the mess they are in or get lucky in the draft 9. Denver - Building some young talent but they dont have a future star to build around. In need of a go to guy 10. Brooklyn- Hard to know what is going on with this team. A bunch of placeholders without much in place for the future. Would eventually be a nice location for free agents to sign if they can show signs of progress. Last edited by jbergey22 : 04-11-2016 at 11:49 AM. |
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04-11-2016, 11:16 AM
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#879 |
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Torchbearer
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: On Lake Harriet
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I might rank Philly only behind Minnesota as most attractive opportunities (climate and culture ignored, of course).
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04-11-2016, 11:35 AM
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#880 | |
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Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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Quote:
Long story short, I'd put Philly over Sacramento and Brooklyn - but that's it (and Sac is tough because they have Cousins - but their culture/leadership is so lousy). Which is really a shame because the Suns, Bucks and Pelicans have all been in playoff races over the past 3 seasons, while Denver and Minnesota have been exciting teams to watch with a bunch of nice young players. The fact that Philly has been so bad and yet is still behind these five teams in terms of developing players has to be a hard pill to stomach for their fans. It was really a crime what Hinkie did. To put your fans through 3 years of unwatchable basketball and end up only with a poo poo platter of Noel, Okafor and a broken down Embiid is a major disappointment. But, hey, he might get 6 2nd round picks next year - that makes all the sucking worthwhile!  Last edited by Arles : 04-11-2016 at 11:41 AM. |
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04-11-2016, 11:46 AM
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#881 | |
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Wolverine Studios
Join Date: Oct 2003
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Quote:
Wait a second - I can at least reason not wanting Sacramento because Cousins is such a handful (but yet sooooooo talented) but why on earth would you look at taking Philly over KAT/Wiggins/Rubio/Dieng/LaVine in Minnesota? You give them a real coach and that's a very dangerous team in the coming years. |
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04-11-2016, 11:54 AM
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#882 | |
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Wolverine Studios
Join Date: Oct 2003
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Quote:
Bolded for emphasis - that's why this was such a disaster. |
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04-11-2016, 12:05 PM
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#883 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
Feels like a largely poisoned franchise to me {shrug}. Something will happen there, feels almost bankable to me. I like the majority of the parts you mentioned, fwiw, it's just not a job I'd take willingly over some other options (including Philly). As for Sacto, Cousins was not a negative to me honestly. If anything, he's more of a reason that I hesitated over whether they were before/after Philly. Just another franchise I don't think I'd want any part of.
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"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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04-11-2016, 12:44 PM
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2003
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Michael Carter-Williams is a rotation player. If you trade a rotation player for a lottery pick that's a really good deal. I don't even have to look to know that Klay Thompson is likely to end up as the best #11 pick in NBA history, and he and Turner are the only players who'd have even close to the trade value MCW had 1 1/2 years in. JJ Redick got traded for the #19 pick because the Bucks were desperate to make the playoffs, and even at the time that was considered a massive overpay for Redick. So again, very good outcome for the 11th pick in what will end up being the weakest or 2nd-weakest draft of the 10 previous seasons. Quote:
Their W/L since Bledsoe got hurt is the same as Philadelphia's since getting Ish Smith, and they actually were swept by Philly. Either both teams or neither are composed of players playing at a D-league level. The only difference is the uniform, which is the same reason someone like Julius Randle gets to be considered an 'intriguing young player' while Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor are part of a 'poo poo platter.' It's much more comfortable for fans to have a GM who will just go and declare that the team will be competitive (and if not, there are players to trade and coaches to fire!). It's much more comfortable to be a bad team that limits its future options by overpaying 'name' players with no upside. Look around the league and see how many other times a head coach outlasted the GM who hired him. Quote:
Exactly. You listed rookies who are not doing very well this season and would have to improve significantly to be good NBA players. If Nerlens Noel (who is younger than Justin Anderson) improved as much offensively as Anderson would have to to be considered a valuable rotation player, Noel would be on an All-NBA team for the next 10+ years. By the way, Jae Crowder was one of the first 2-3 guys left off the All-Star team, so a better Jae Crowder is an all-star. Crowder (who as a rookie looked like Dirk compared to how Justin Anderson is shooting the ball) could have the exact same year next year and he'd receive heavy all-star consideration just because he'd have more name recognition. Quote:
Wow, getting 2 lottery picks for an injury-prone player who was maybe the 10th-best point guard in the league when healthy (and who was just an All-Star by virtue of playing in the JV conference the year Derrick Rose was injured) is a deal you won't slam? How generous! Of course it was an attempt to bottom out totally - they had no draft pick unless it was in the lottery. Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes were both upcoming free agents who were not going to sign with Philadelphia, so getting anything for them was a bonus. I'm sure Indiana and Cleveland both wish they hadn't given up a draft pick for 20-odd games of a guy who didn't help them (or was actively detrimental, as Turner was for Indy) and then signed with another team in the summer. Quote:
Everybody thought it was a nothing first at the time because the Heat were still gonna be good when LeBron left - popular perception of his supporting cast was closer to 'Big Three' than '2009 Cleveland.' Except then Miami wasn't good, and then Chris Bosh got blood clots, which allowed Miami to tank more egregiously than Philadelphia down the stretch and be in position to keep the pick. What are the odds of that happening? Otherwise they traded Thad Young for Winslow (or all the picks teams were allegedly offering for Winslow), Booker, or anyone else who was on the board in that 11-15 range. The Nets were trying to trade Thad Young for matching salary and a first round pick this season and couldn't get anyone to bite; Philadelphia is ending up a higher pick for Young after making a deal that had 99 percent chance of yielding an even more valuable pick. Quote:
Well that's a disingenuous paragraph. The point of a rookie contract is that it turns into a second contract and you get 9 years before the player becomes an unrestricted free agent. Nobody has ever taken the qualifying offer and walked. Quote:
Oh, like what Phoenix did to get a meeting with LaMarcus Aldridge this year? Or how Milwaukee got the privilege of signing Greg Monroe to a max deal? Because Philadelphia was realistic about its prospects of signing a big free agent even if everything went right for them. Quote:
Because the odds of any one pick outside the top 5 or so being valuable are low enough that it's generally better to have more picks rather than believing that your organization is the unicorn that gets to play the magical 'any player we draft will be better than every player selected after him' card. Denver traded the 11th pick for the 16th and 19th in 2014, and if you were to list the value you could find from both of those draft slots (especially if you set the bar low enough to consider someone like Bobby Portis to be a surefire valuable player) it would look much better than just the 11th pick. Quote:
That's mostly academic because the lottery changes things so much (Cleveland had a 1.8% chance of winning the lottery in 2014 and they were the only lottery team that would have even considered trading the pick for Kevin Love). If you're looking to win a playoff series or two going forward, Philadelphia is in a better situation than Sacramento, New Orleans, Phoenix, New York, and Brooklyn. I'd only consider the Lakers to be ahead if the 55 percent chance of keeping the pick holds and even then, that's based on being located in Los Angeles rather than Philadelphia. This is all assuming that Embiid is just whatever going forward and will at his peak be the kind of player he would have been his rookie season in 2014; a good shot blocker who gets a few double doubles. If he's better than that, it vaults Philadelphia ahead of every team but Minnesota. Why limit it to the bottom 10 though? There are going to be 8 teams in the league that lose in the first round this year, and almost all of them will be on the downswing. If a team like Toronto loses in the first or second round, the Raptors go from being the "see this is how you rebuild, Philadelphia" flavor of the month to "uh, do we REALLY want to give Demar Derozan a max contract?" Last edited by nol : 04-11-2016 at 03:19 PM. |
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04-11-2016, 01:01 PM
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#885 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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Quote:
Seriously? Nobody? Ever? I mean, I don't know that I'd ever really thought about that a whole lot but I guess I'm kind of surprised that it hasn't happened at least once or twice.
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"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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04-11-2016, 01:08 PM
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#886 | ||
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2003
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Greg Monroe would be the closest example, but that was obviously more of a mutual decision with Detroit wanting to build around Drummond and using the cap savings to bring in a player like Tobias Harris. Quote:
Such a concern troll. Philadelphia has long had an apathetic fan base that cared for maybe 2-3 years at the peak of Iverson's career. You could look at any number, from local TV ratings to attendance to what the franchise sold for, and see that this was the case long before Hinkie was hired. Again, if you consider Philadelphia to be the one unwatchable team in the league, that's more evidence in favor of the notion that fans are not very discerning consumers and teams should go ahead and do whatever they feel is right. The dumbest thing about all of this is that people now act like Hinkie invented the idea of a long-term rebuild when a) he played a large part in constructing the Rockets' "this is how you rebuild without tanking" roster and b) if there was ever a time and place that called for burning everything to the ground and starting over, it was Philadelphia in 2013. Last edited by nol : 04-11-2016 at 02:32 PM. |
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04-11-2016, 02:18 PM
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#887 | |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Las Vegas
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Reggie Miller *cough *cough |
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04-11-2016, 03:10 PM
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#888 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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Nobody has ever turned down the Max and taken the QO. There's been several mid level guys who have taken it.
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04-11-2016, 03:18 PM
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#889 | |||||||
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Wolverine Studios
Join Date: Oct 2003
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First off I want to say I appreciate the conversation and debate - I think its a good one.
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I said multiple times this was a very good deal - for the future. The MCW pick did absolutely zero to help the franchise in the 3 year timeline Hinkie was in charge. One "punt" of the present day for the future is certainly fine but the problem became that just about every move was punt today for the future and the future still hasn't gotten here - that's all. The whole process just turned into an empty shell game. Quote:
First off I've said it already that I like Noel and think he can be a very good player when used correctly which made the Okafor pick incredibly stupid. When Noel is put in place as the pick and roll, look for a dunk, attack the glass, rack up stocks type player he's very good and very promising. I absolutely think Noel is a solid building piece going forward - the ONE they have right now. As for "D-league" level players there is a difference between capable NBA players who are not playing well and guys who have no business on a NBA roster and you're smart enough to know that. You really think TJ McConnell, Hollis Thompson and Richaun Holmes are getting a look from anyone else? Do you really think Carl Landry can go anywhere else and put up those stats (or even play)? Phoenix not only has Bledsoe hurt (who is a major impact player) but BK and Warren have been hurt for significant amounts of time too. So ok, scrap all those guys and you've got a team who is playing NBA bench players as starters and losing as opposed to Philly who over the past three years has done nothing of the sort and they have done it by choice - not because normal starters have been injured. Quote:
I listed Turner, Lyles, Booker, Justin Anderson, Portis and RHJ as #11 picks or later who look promising from this class. Every one of those guys either starts or is a rotation player already and could be seen as a future starter really with the exception of Lyles because Favors and Gobert are young still. I don't see players who are "not doing very well" on that list considering they were picked past the threshold you set for essentially being worthless most of the time. Quote:
Anderson is already a valuable rotation player - he doesn't have to be a star or an offensive juggernaut. He's starting now since Parsons is done and is averaging .85 steals and 1.28 blocks and 7 rebounds per game to go with 8.3 points as a starter and that's after he didn't even get a chance to play and develop for most of the year. Quote:
Jae Crowder as a rookie shot 38.4% from the field and 32.8% from 3 on 2.5 3PA per game averaging only 5.0 PPG, 2.4 RPG and 0.8 SPG in 17.3 MPG in Dallas with 78 GP and 16 GS. In fact four years in Crowder is still only shooting 44.3% with 33.8% from 3 (a whole 1% increase) but is taking twice as many 3s per game now. As a rookie Anderson is shooting 40.4% from the floor and yes a paltry 26.9% for 3 but only 1.5 3PAPG. Hardly "Dirk-like" when compared to Anderson especially considering he was actually worse in FG%. Quote:
So in the MCW talk it was a good move to trade him for a pick which will probably be a better player (which I agree with) but still a good move to trade Young (a career 14/6/1.5 steals) player for what will probably be a worse player? I understand why a team would do it but you can't say that move made them better or would have made Brooklyn better. When Philly traded the pick there was no expectation it would turn out to be a player with a higher ceiling than Young. The only point being maybe had they built with Young and Noel they could have been a little further ahead then once again having nothing to show for Young. Quote:
Well as you already pointed out that isn't true but it's not disingenuous at all. If you're going to go all-in on picks then isn't the ideal situation to get to year four of the first guy (which is where they are now) with having three high picks that have produced at least one star and two starters so you go into year 4 with those three, a lottery pick and a crap load of cap space? The Sixers had 5 cracks at getting those three players. If that's not the point of ignoring all other roster building options but the draft then what is? Once you hit year 5 of this plan the 1st guy starts getting paid. Is Noel a franchise player? Are you going to pay him like one to keep him? Let's assume Embiid comes back next year and after two years away from basketball even if he's eventually going to be one of the great big men (and that's a BIG if given his particular injury - he's not sidelined with something meaningless) nobody is going to expect a big year next year. Fair? So you're going to get one season of kind-of a look at Noel/Embiid together and then you have to decide do you want to pay Noel or not because if you don't I think someone else will. This is a bigger deal than you're willing to admit. Lets say Embiid's career is essentially over - he either never recovers or comes back as a very average, injury riddled player. Is Noel a) worth paying top dollar for and b) worth paying top dollar for on a lottery team for the next few seasons? If Embiid is worthless do you trade Noel while you can and just essentially start with Okafor? We already know they can't play together so you have to trade one. The thing is you have no idea what you have in Embiid. Maybe he comes back and turns into the second coming of Hakeem and you throw everything into the future into building around him. That's a pretty good outcome. Maybe he's good and he and Noel can play together and you build around those two - also a nice outcome. The problem is if one of those two scenarios don't play out then you've not only completely wasted three seasons for nothing but you're also faced with decisions on Noel and Okafor that could end up hamstringing the team far into the future as well. All this talk about trading and value - you think you're going to get a top 3 pick for Okafor? Literally everything hinges on a guy halfway through his rookie contract who hasn't played at all and is a 7 footer with foot problems - problems which have been career ending for other 7 footers. If Embiid doesn't work out its not "oh well, too bad" - it's a total, unmitigated waste of a few seasons and the potential to screw up the franchise going forward based on the decisions you have to make with Noel and Okafor. |
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04-11-2016, 03:28 PM
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#890 | ||
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Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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I still think it's funny that people are trying to argue that setting up process only concerned with drafting players ends up being a failure when you botch a bunch of draft picks. Had Hinkie drafted KD, Westbrook, Ibaka and Harden, it would be lauded as a success. But, his drafts were terrible and therefore it is a pretty clear failure. Had the 76ers just played it out with Holiday, Thad Young, Evan Turner, MCW and two lottery picks (ie, no Saric or Noel picks) - they would be in similar shape right now and atleast have been watchable for 2-3 seasons. There's also the chance they could have made Boston or Detroit type deals and landed a guy like Crowder, Thomas, Reggie Jackson or Tobias Harris. Hinkie clearly made the 76er team, reputation and fan outlook much worse in his three seasons. If this were a video game, you could just burn the save game and start over with no harm/no foul. But in the real world, the Colangelos now have to deal with a pissed off fan base who is realizing they've been witnessing an unwatchable product and are no closer to a title (or even being competitive). Last edited by Arles : 04-11-2016 at 03:35 PM. |
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04-11-2016, 03:30 PM
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#891 | |||||||
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2003
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Yeah, I know who Reggie Miller is. If you're arguing one player who *may* have been better (Thompson has more all-star appearances 5 seasons in than Miller did, and that even gives Miller the benefit of starting his career at an older age), that does a lot to strengthen the case that you're not going to find too many franchise-altering players at that draft slot. Quote:
2 years in you were probably saying James Harden was a terribly botched pick when the Thunder could've had Tyreke Evans or Brandon Jennings, so this insistence on using the past tense when discussing a bunch of players who are 20-22 years old is silly. Quote:
If they're pissed, they have a funny way of showing it because attendance is just as bad as it was in 2007 or 2011 or any other random year. Pissed or not, people in Philadelphia would rather watch the Eagles go 4-12 than a playoff 76ers team. Quote:
Awful strawman. They had the latter 3 players (and might as well have had Holiday in addition for how much he's played) for the majority of 2012-13 and 2013-14 and sucked; 15-39 and the 2nd-worst record in the league at the time they traded Turner. 'Playing it out' would then involve re-signing those players and being in salary cap purgatory to boot. Having 3 fewer first round picks is not even close to being 'in similar shape' going forward; otherwise, Brooklyn is in similar shape going forward to where the Nets would've been without having traded for Pierce and KG. Quote:
That's a hell of a lot of ifs that would have to break the Lakers' way for it to merely be 'not great' value. Player-wise, Clarkson is a free agent who will take a chunk of their cap space, Randle might not be that great, and 45% is not an insignificant risk when talking about the difference between having a top-3 pick and having nothing. Again, why are Larry Nance Jr. and Lou Williams rotational players and Robert Covington and Jerami Grant not other than the uniform they wear? The Lakers were injury-free and apparently have 7-8 intriguing rotation players to the Sixers' one or two, yet have only managed to win 6 more games. Quote:
Yeah, the difference is that the former are getting paid 5-10 times more and are never going to get any better; the difference between getting just what you paid for and being massively ripped off. The 76ers waived their 15th guy at the trade deadline (oops, I need to say "a player they didn't value very much going forward who had fallen out of the rotation" so I don't get someone coming in again and saying "well he played the 10th-most total minutes for them so your entire premise is wrong") and he got picked up immediately, so I guarantee you the other players would get a look. Quote:
Young was about to be a free agent! It's also fair to note that he played in the exact same 76ers system that inflated MCW's numbers and has not come close to the 17.8 ppg he scored in 2013. For all this talk about punting and giving away good players, every one but Carter-Williams was in the last season of their deal. So then it comes down to either letting them walk for nothing or re-signing them when, to a man, all of these players have managed to look even worse since leaving Philadelphia. New Orleans couldn't find a first-round pick for Ryan Anderson this season, which tells you how the league values first-round picks compared to half-season rentals of decent free agents to-be. So then, that leaves "well use the cap space to sign veteran free agents and maybe you'd be where Detroit is now if you nailed every one of the signings, just without having a top young player like Drummond to build around." Last edited by nol : 04-11-2016 at 07:20 PM. |
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04-11-2016, 05:31 PM
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#892 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
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That's a pretty fair point as it turns out. by year, percentage of arena capacity, record 2016 - 73.2 - 10-70 2015 - 68.6 - 18-64 2014 - 68.2 - 19-63 2013 - 82.2 - 34-48 2012 - 86.1 - 8th place, conference semis 2011 - 72.6 - 7th place, 1st round 2010 - 70.0 - 27-55 2009 - 79.7 - 41-41 2008 - 72.7 - 40-42 2007 - 72.6 - 35-47 So in the last decade, this year's attendance was actually higher than 4 years, including a year when they made the playoffs (and two others at/virtually .500)
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
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04-11-2016, 05:44 PM
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#893 | |
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General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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A few days late on this, but of course, the Celtics do have the Nets' first round picks for the next three years - all unprotected (next year they Celtics just have the right to swap picks with the nets, so its practically unprotected). They also have the Maverick's 1st-round pick this year, in addition to their own. So they basically get to draft as if they were the 76ers for the immediate future, they just don't have to also suck. I'm not a super-close NBA follower anymore, but as a fan, I definitely prefer that approach. Playoff basketball and winning seasons have some value, even if they don't necessarily lead to a championship (and it's not like the 76ers approach guarantees a championship either). |
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04-11-2016, 06:39 PM
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#894 | |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Sydney, Australia
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Agree with this 100%.
__________________
Politics, n. Strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles. --Ambrose Bierce |
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04-11-2016, 07:06 PM
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#895 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2003
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Me three. I just knew the point Hinkie was starting from made being a winning (or even playoff) team next to impossible over the next few years no matter which path was chosen. |
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04-11-2016, 07:14 PM
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#896 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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I think much of this stems from so much focus on championships at the cost of everything else, as in either win a championship or don't even bother. It seems to get more ridiculous every year.
Someone, I forgot who, once posted they'd rather have their team go for 19 losing seasons and 1 championship than have 20 good season but no championship. We had a thread that argued Billy Beane's strategy was useless because it didn't produce a championship. Some athletes' careers are defined by the fact that they never won the championship or haven't won it yet. I just don't get this sentiment at all. It's such a joyless, reductive way of looking at sports. I say get rid of the current lottery and just make it completely random with every team in the league eligible. Or even reward the mid-level teams by giving the 8th seeded playoff teams the first picks or best odds. But any system where a team going 17-65 can be considered to have a good strategy while the teams going 42-40 are just wasting everyone's time should be scrapped immediately.
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Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner |
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04-11-2016, 07:21 PM
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#897 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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I still keep coming back to the Wizards - a team which keeps trying to make the playoffs (and is a generally good comparison for Philly). I'd rather have the Sixers do what they were doing than what the Wizards have been doing.
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null Last edited by cuervo72 : 04-11-2016 at 07:25 PM. |
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04-11-2016, 07:34 PM
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#898 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Sydney, Australia
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Wiz are an odd collection of poorly-fitting parts, but I'd tune in for a Wizards game on TV any day of the week rather than Okafor/Noel and the Travelling DLeague All-Stars. If I were a Sixers fan living in Philly I couldn't imagine paying money to attend a game unless it was the Warriors or Spurs. Maybe.
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Politics, n. Strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles. --Ambrose Bierce |
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04-11-2016, 07:59 PM
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#899 | ||
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Banned
Join Date: Oct 2003
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I think it gets oversimplified to that and overlooks that Philadelphia in 2013 was quantitatively in a bigger hole than just about any NBA team's ever been in, in terms of coaching, the market, the cap situation, young talent, and future talent. It's not "if you won't win the championship why other trying," it's "if you won't make the playoffs why bother trying." Seriously, you could point at any other team in 2012-13 and it would not be difficult to show how Philadelphia's overall outlook for the immediate future was significantly worse. It cannot be overstated that no matter what goal you set for Philadelphia from 2013-2016, whether it be 25 wins, 30 wins, the playoffs, the championship, whatever, the odds of having the lottery balls bounce slightly differently dwarf the odds of getting a slew of veteran free agent bargains who were willing to play in Philadelphia with that nucleus. When you nitpick at the draft selections 2 years in when it's still not even remotely settled, consider that you could make a dream team of the absolute best players selected at Philadelphia's picks or later from 2013-15, and that team would obviously look like a formidable future power (something like Hood, Porzingis, Gobert, Giannis, Smart), but I wouldn't even guarantee that it would make it out of the first round of the playoffs this season. Same with free agents; it's a matter of knowing that your Bazemore or Jeremy Lin types have the impact they do because they fit in alongside better veteran players, most of whom are in place because of moves that took place longer than three years ago. If you did the same thing for rookies and threw out all of the Aldridge/Love types who would never have signed with the Sixers in a million years, you'd realize that signing the absolute best of all players who ultimately did change teams would also result in a borderline playoff contender, without even accounting for how much they would cost (Thomas, Monroe, Parsons, Gasol, Carroll?). Quote:
Every team that loses is by definition going to have poorly-fitting parts. There are enough talented athletes in the NBA that you can easily imagine a lot of guys flourishing if they ended up in the perfect situation. The Wizards are more watchable because they have no. 1 and no. 3 draft picks John Wall and Bradley Beal, and those guys were much less watchable in their first and second seasons (aka how long Hinkie's draft picks have been in the league) than they are now. If you are a Sixers fan in Philly you generally realize that the team's in a much, much better position for the future and the present was going to be a wash regardless (attendance holding constant despite the team being worse would be a very good indicator). If you're a sports fan in Philly in general you're more likely to be obsessing over who the Eagles are gonna draft or how the Phillies are looking, and there are only so many things to care about at once. Last edited by nol : 04-11-2016 at 08:25 PM. |
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04-11-2016, 08:02 PM
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#900 | |
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General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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The Wizards had high draft picks from 2009-2013. At what point does a fan want to see their team start to try to win? 5 years isn't long enough to suck? It's pretty unlikely a team can go from 20 wins right to 65 and a championship. At some point you have to make the jump up to playoff contender and see if you can add the final pieces to make a title run. But still, there's no guarantee that 5 years of sucking even leads to a decent run of 45-win playoff teams. I don't follow the Wizards, but I imagine there's some sentiment now to "blow everything up" and suck for 5 more years for some vague hope that in 2021 they can have lots of highly drafted players and suddenly be a championship team. I just don't think it's that easy. There's 30 teams, many are trying to do the same thing, and some are already there. The odds are against you no matter what. I'd rather my team be competitive more often than not, make smart moves, and maybe overcome the odds and catch lighting in a bottle with the right mix of luck and good team building. But for being a sports fan to be enjoyable I think you do have to understand the odds and adjust your expectations. All things being equal, your team is going to win a championship once every 30 years. If you get 2 in that time, you're way ahead of the curve. Many teams, maybe most, will have zero. If that's the only thing that counts as success anymore, ya, the vast majority of fans are going to miserable most of the time. Last edited by molson : 04-11-2016 at 08:03 PM. |
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