Werewolf CXL - The Dark Knight Returns - GAME OVER

[Narcizo]

Ok we're in trouble here then, because I'm none the wiser about who a baddie might be. I think that if the bodyguard didn't block a kill then they should protect mau to get at least one more scan in. I think he scans for Supervillain so he probably has double the chance of hitting someone.

I think we have two avenues to look at
a) Random hit on yop wolfie dudes
b) Signal to two-face.

In terms of corruptibles I'm still looking at Crimson voters as I believe that was the vote most likely to hit a villager, and who knows, that's where Two-Face looked as well.

[MrBug708]

This would be a decent time for Mau to say something

Also having two non-voters kinda sucks too

[Narcizo]

So the first thing that occurs to me is that mau is a deranged citizen and either Lathum or Zinto is Two-Face. I'd love that to be true but it would be a shockingly bad move by mau to do that and I don't really see that being the case. Something worth bearing in mind though.

[Narcizo]

Ok so Commo, Lathum and Chief have the first three votes on Crimson. I'm going to be shocked if one of those isn't, at least, a deranged citizen and, very possibly, a supervillain.

[Zinto]

So I am fairly certain I am going to vote for Commo. I am thinking that whoever is Two Face took Danny's advice on Hoops today and then followed it again and picked Commo for his target.

[Zinto]

And I could be totally wrong but I am not sure why else you kill Hoops night one unless you believe that he is a deranged citizen. He definitely could be on the block the next few days since Danny is looking at him.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So the first thing that occurs to me is that mau is a deranged citizen and either Lathum or Zinto is Two-Face. I'd love that to be true but it would be a shockingly bad move by mau to do that and I don't really see that being the case. Something worth bearing in mind though.

It would be a pretty poor play by Mau at this point in the game. I know he is the king of fake reveals though but as he said the last game they never work for him.

[Zinto]

But I could see him trying to cash in the fact no one believed him last game and use that this game. I know that I am not Two Face so there is less of a chance of that theory being right in my mind.(Something everyone else doesn't benefit in knowing.)

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Danny

Mau, what say you?

Was Mau here when you asked this because that would make me a little more suspicious of him.

[Zinto]

I am going to put my money where my mouth is and....

Vote Commo

[Narcizo]

Meh! Just realised that if Mau is Rachel then there's a chance that a deranged citizen played a part in starting a run on him against Crimson and Commo - as it's possible that they had scanned him as a seer on night one. Still I think the smart money is on Crimson voters at the moment.

[Narcizo]

I think it's likely to be a middle voter for mau if there was a deranged on him who had scanned him - makes me interested in Tyrith and ntn. But it seems like a long shot to me.

[Narcizo]

Vote Chief Rum

I'm torn between Lathum and him at this stage - both are strong wolves but Lathum voting for Crimson is more in keeping with what I expect from him as a villager than a villager Chief voting there. I think Chief's idea about people unvoting could be a warning to other deranged citizens not to follow the plan he's outlining - otherwise it seems a bit premature for him to have mentioned it. Probably safe for him to mention it if there were no unvotes on Two-Face by that stage. Win-win as it acts as a partial signal to Two-Face.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

It's possible I could be disturbed, but since you are two face, I can't also be two face. I could be no face!

no-face (144x250).jpg <----NO-FACE

[Narcizo]

I'm having borderline paranoid thoughts about a Commo-Danny pairing here but I'll strive to keep that under control. I'm certainly interested in seeing Commo on the block today and will move my vote there if need be.

Let's look at all unvotes from day one. Unless DT, Commo or I are Two-Face (I'm not) then it's a safe option for him to pull out this theory as a possible warning to other nutters and to create a bunch more heat on Crimson, who I, at least, had a read as villager by that stage. Presuming that mau's scan of Zinto is legit then.

Danny unvotes Narcizo (1) 305
Danny unvotes Hoops (1) 319
CrimsonFox unvotes ChiefRum (0) 359
Jackal unvotes CrimsonFox (1) 389
McKerney unvotes DaddyTorgo (0) 403
MrBug unvotes CrimsonFox (2) 423
Tyrith unvotes AbeSargent (2) 429
Tyrith unvotes CrimsonFox (2) 430
CrimsonFox unvotes Hoops (3) 453
Tyrith unvotes Hoops (2) 458
Hoops unvotes Zinto (5) 465
Danny unvotes Mauboy (2) 468
Danny unvotes CommoSoldier (0) 475
Saldana unvotes Narcizo (1) 477
Danny unvotes Hoops (2) 481
Hoops unvotes AbeSargent (6) 496
Saldana unvotes AbeSargent (5) 498
Danny unvotes Zinto (5) 499


Admittedly interesting that Hoops had a vote on and off Zinto, but we'll leave that for the time being. If Zinto is Two-Face then mau is lying and Rachel should just come out and we can polish off the two supervillains.

Anyway, my point that an ostentatiously helpful theory that happens to lead up a blind alley is pretty much what I'd expect to see from Chief in the position of him being a possible convertee.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Danny

Mau isn't two face. No way the four corrupted citizens let him get in there as the lead candidate.

Well, unless most of them are already on the other lead candidate so have their hands tied. Mauboy came out of nowhere there. There's not going to be the same level of co-ordination for the wolves as in a normal game. All the more reason for Rachel to come forward if mau's lying in my mind.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

That seems pie in the sky thinking That 2 face would attempt to hit someone who he cant kill. It coulda been a block..but that isnt all that likely either, (if a block was laid don't tell us. I dont want two faces' choices reduced by another one.)

This is what I was getting at on day one. If the bodyguard did block and doesn't come out we're going to be working under the assumption that there are two killers now and base our votes off of that assumption. But what then happens if there's only one kill tomorrow? Do we assume that both killers have hit the same person? That there's been another conversion? One was blocked then.

I suggest strongly that we need to know if there's been a block and I think the bodyguard should come out with that information. If there has been then the bodyguard isn't going to be a target for Two-Face anyway - and if he is then that's another day without a conversion, and the BG has really done all you could ask of him in the game. And I'll need to re-evaluate my vote today. Barring a BG reveal I'm going to assume that there has been a conversion.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Was Mau here when you asked this because that would make me a little more suspicious of him.

Yes, he was here after the night deadline and left without posting his scan

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

crimsonfox - commo_soldier, lathum, chief rum, mrbug708, saldana, danny, mauboy, the jackal,

I think we find more than 50% of the baddies here. Maybe three, maybe four. I got no signals that mau was a villager so I'd be loathe to vote him as a wolf - it's a possibility if a wolf got lucky with a scan on him but generally I look favourably on someone who is pushing any uncertain candidate against Crimson. And I'm really not doing the happy little jig about Danny's switch onto Crimson.

Chief suspects: Chief (hahahahaha - see what I did there?), Commo, Lathum, Danny

Not chief suspects: everyone else really. I think we're better off leaving the overtly UTR guys be, unless one of them happens to be Two-Face. Doesn't seem likely a killer is going to target them.

[dzilla77]

Commo is pinging me as well, particularly for his early vote on CF and his interactions with Danny.

Vote Commo

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by saldana

Yes, he was here after the night deadline and left without posting his scan

Don't like this meta stuff. I know I do it as much as the next person but I can't get on my high horse when I do it. Further there could be a million reasonable reasons why that could happen.

As far as I'm concerned if mau is lying then there's very few scenarios I can envision that justify it from his point of view and it's definitely worth Rachel revealing. This is like a virus with there probably being two kills out there, we need to try and nip it in the bud.

[Autumn]

Gotham Early Morning News

The search for the Two Faced Killer goes on, as more information comes to light acquitting Bock and Burton on all charges. Increased police presence on the streets has prevented more killings. But how long can it last?

Tyrith - The Jackal
Commo_soldier - zinto, dzilla77
Chief Rum - Narcizo

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So the first thing that occurs to me is that mau is a deranged citizen and either Lathum or Zinto is Two-Face. I'd love that to be true but it would be a shockingly bad move by mau to do that and I don't really see that being the case. Something worth bearing in mind though.

It would only be shockingly bad if we would ever actually think he would do it. It's possible that he could do it, just out-leveling us. But that would be a total hero play, and I would agree that isn't particularly likely here - I am taking mau at face value for now.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Vote Chief Rum

I'm torn between Lathum and him at this stage - both are strong wolves but Lathum voting for Crimson is more in keeping with what I expect from him as a villager than a villager Chief voting there. I think Chief's idea about people unvoting could be a warning to other deranged citizens not to follow the plan he's outlining - otherwise it seems a bit premature for him to have mentioned it. Probably safe for him to mention it if there were no unvotes on Two-Face by that stage. Win-win as it acts as a partial signal to Two-Face.

While this is fairly thin, I like the logic here, and I don't think we're going to be able to come up with anything today that isn't pretty thin.

As an FYI to all, I am going to be out for the day around 11 CST. My inclination is to follow Narc and vote for CR, but I'm loathe to try to run over someone with a dump truck this early in the day.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So the first thing that occurs to me is that mau is a deranged citizen and either Lathum or Zinto is Two-Face. I'd love that to be true but it would be a shockingly bad move by mau to do that and I don't really see that being the case. Something worth bearing in mind though.

I agree, If Mau is corrupted, there is no way Two Face is included in his list of scans.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Was Mau here when you asked this because that would make me a little more suspicious of him.

His name was listed at the bottom of the page, but he didn't post. I would of thought he would have stayed on to post his scan result right away.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Well, unless most of them are already on the other lead candidate so have their hands tied. Mauboy came out of nowhere there. There's not going to be the same level of co-ordination for the wolves as in a normal game. All the more reason for Rachel to come forward if mau's lying in my mind.

I doubt Mau is lying, that would be quite foolish to stay alive another day or so when his participation is as limited as it has been? He strikes me as someone who, when has a baddie role, tries to stay as much UTR as he can. If he was bad, I think we'd see him making more of an effort in the game

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Danny

I agree, If Mau is corrupted, there is no way Two Face is included in his list of scans.

Are you saying there is a corrupted role? Or are you saying that if Mau is lying, those two first two names wouldn't ever be two-faced? If it's the former, that would be a hidden role, which I'm not sure is in the game. If it's the latter, that would make sense, but that is kind of like unvoting two-face to get notice and what better way to hide it.

[Danny]

I said corrupted, but I mean disturbed citizen.

[Tyrith]

If mauboy decided to level us ten minutes from the deadline, more power to him - he's going to get me, at least. But haste tends to breed simplicity and honesty.

[Danny]

Vote Chief Rum

I like both Commo and Chief Rum as candidates today.

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE COMMO

I suck guys...that is me getting a vote out after my really quick catch up...I will do more to look into everything and make sure its a good vote

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I'm having borderline paranoid thoughts about a Commo-Danny pairing here but I'll strive to keep that under control. I'm certainly interested in seeing Commo on the block today and will move my vote there if need be.

Let's look at all unvotes from day one. Unless DT, Commo or I are Two-Face (I'm not) then it's a safe option for him to pull out this theory as a possible warning to other nutters and to create a bunch more heat on Crimson, who I, at least, had a read as villager by that stage. Presuming that mau's scan of Zinto is legit then.

Danny unvotes Narcizo (1) 305
Danny unvotes Hoops (1) 319
CrimsonFox unvotes ChiefRum (0) 359
Jackal unvotes CrimsonFox (1) 389
McKerney unvotes DaddyTorgo (0) 403
MrBug unvotes CrimsonFox (2) 423
Tyrith unvotes AbeSargent (2) 429
Tyrith unvotes CrimsonFox (2) 430
CrimsonFox unvotes Hoops (3) 453
Tyrith unvotes Hoops (2) 458
Hoops unvotes Zinto (5) 465
Danny unvotes Mauboy (2) 468
Danny unvotes CommoSoldier (0) 475
Saldana unvotes Narcizo (1) 477
Danny unvotes Hoops (2) 481
Hoops unvotes AbeSargent (6) 496
Saldana unvotes AbeSargent (5) 498
Danny unvotes Zinto (5) 499


Admittedly interesting that Hoops had a vote on and off Zinto, but we'll leave that for the time being. If Zinto is Two-Face then mau is lying and Rachel should just come out and we can polish off the two supervillains.

Anyway, my point that an ostentatiously helpful theory that happens to lead up a blind alley is pretty much what I'd expect to see from Chief in the position of him being a possible convertee.

Or, Occam's Razor, I could be a villager with a helpful theory that didn't end up working out. The far more likely result.

[Tyrith]

The problem is that the nature of this game means that whatever we do today is going to continue to be very marginal...do we just off another UTR on a math play today?

[Tyrith]

Commo, CR, and Lathum are the only CF voters from yesterday that did not vote for a known good on D1. But...the math vote is just dealing with the smallest of probabilities - there's a good chance that Two-Face hasn't taken any significant heat so far in this game.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

This is what I was getting at on day one. If the bodyguard did block and doesn't come out we're going to be working under the assumption that there are two killers now and base our votes off of that assumption. But what then happens if there's only one kill tomorrow? Do we assume that both killers have hit the same person? That there's been another conversion? One was blocked then.

I suggest strongly that we need to know if there's been a block and I think the bodyguard should come out with that information. If there has been then the bodyguard isn't going to be a target for Two-Face anyway - and if he is then that's another day without a conversion, and the BG has really done all you could ask of him in the game. And I'll need to re-evaluate my vote today. Barring a BG reveal I'm going to assume that there has been a conversion.

IMO, we have to assume the worst possible scenario. If we don't have a reveal from the BG on a supposed block, then we must assume we have a conversion and go forward with that thinking.

It's my assumption we have two supervillains now.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

The problem is that the nature of this game means that whatever we do today is going to continue to be very marginal...do we just off another UTR on a math play today?

That suggests we have been offing UTR players this game, but we haven't.

Not that I am suggesting that right. I am merely pointing out that making me a candidate is not going to help the village.

[mckerney]

Vote Commo

Not sure about Chief as someone who would give off anything that he was deranged, I think he'd be fine playing it safe and waiting for Two Face to target him. Not really sold on Commo, though mau overtaking him as a candidate could have had deranged behind it. I really don't feel like I've got even a decent read on anything though.

[mckerney]

Vote Commo

Not sure about Chief as someone who would give off anything that he was deranged, I think he'd be fine playing it safe and waiting for Two Face to target him. Not really sold on Commo, though mau overtaking him as a candidate could have had deranged behind it. I really don't feel like I've got even a decent read on anything though.

[Danny]

I currently have about the same number of posts as the total of 10 currently alive players.

[Danny]

IE, we really need some more activity from a lot of people.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Ok so Commo, Lathum and Chief have the first three votes on Crimson. I'm going to be shocked if one of those isn't, at least, a deranged citizen and, very possibly, a supervillain.

We were the first non-Crimson votes on Crimson. If this tells us anything it would only tell us Two-Face was possibly in trouble day 1 and there would be deranged or two face on Crimson to take heat off of two face. However I highly doubt that to be the situation as we are now down to one person left that was in that runoff, Zinto. If that is not the case I'm not sure how you link voters to anyone yet when up to this point in the voting we have only seen citizens and at this point wolves only know up to one other wolf.

[Tyrith]

The problem is that there is nothing to be active about. We know nothing and don't have the ability to learn anything, with the exception of 2-3 players. And except for mauboy we need those players to stay quiet for now. There's nothing to be said except for sheer speculation. Honestly, and this is no slight against Autumn, I don't think this ruleset promotes a very active game - there's no catalyst to keep people engaged when we're so in the dark.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Zinto

It would be a pretty poor play by Mau at this point in the game. I know he is the king of fake reveals though but as he said the last game they never work for him.

Plus right now a fake reveal would never work. We know exactly what roles started in the game and which roles are left in the game.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

That suggests we have been offing UTR players this game, but we haven't.

Not that I am suggesting that right. I am merely pointing out that making me a candidate is not going to help the village.

Well, I was trying to yesterday, at least, and we would have if not for the reveal.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Plus right now a fake reveal would never work. We know exactly what roles started in the game and which roles are left in the game.

It could certainly work on a short term basis.

[Tyrith]

I'm stuck in a bad spot at this point. There's a chance I'll be back before the deadline, but I'm not counting on it.

Narc's thought on CR is the only thing that has really struck me today. However, I don't really want to just kill someone for one incident like that, even in this game. At the same time, I'm just not seeing the case for Commo.

I hate to do it, but I would rather my vote be a suspicious looking potential throw-away than encourage a two-horse race where I don't like either horse. I'm going with my logic from yesterday again - voting for someone with two votes on a known good who is a UTR type player. I don't really expect this to get any traction.

VOTE MRBUG708

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Danny

It could certainly work on a short term basis.

As with Crimson, taking one for the team might not be a bad avenue. For all anyone knows, Mauboy won't even be around next week. A little clarity from him would be helpful.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

This is what I was getting at on day one. If the bodyguard did block and doesn't come out we're going to be working under the assumption that there are two killers now and base our votes off of that assumption. But what then happens if there's only one kill tomorrow? Do we assume that both killers have hit the same person? That there's been another conversion? One was blocked then.

I suggest strongly that we need to know if there's been a block and I think the bodyguard should come out with that information. If there has been then the bodyguard isn't going to be a target for Two-Face anyway - and if he is then that's another day without a conversion, and the BG has really done all you could ask of him in the game. And I'll need to re-evaluate my vote today. Barring a BG reveal I'm going to assume that there has been a conversion.

Here is why I think it is important they don't reveal. We know there are a possible 5 bad guys and I think we go off the assumption there is always 1 supervillian until we see multiple kills. Once we see a night of multiple kills we start focusing in on two supervillians, sure we may be a day off because of them trying to kill the same person, but really we are just a day off on 1/2 the equation as the deranged already know Two-Face. Really though ideally we hit two face, but we should be focusing our efforts on getting deranged up in the running as well and not just supervillians.

As for blocks, there are important blocks still remaining for our one BG left in Dawes and the two forensic officers. We need to ensure we get the most out of these blocks and have them be martyred protecting one of them, not killed because they came out.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

I'm stuck in a bad spot at this point. There's a chance I'll be back before the deadline, but I'm not counting on it.

Narc's thought on CR is the only thing that has really struck me today. However, I don't really want to just kill someone for one incident like that, even in this game. At the same time, I'm just not seeing the case for Commo.

I hate to do it, but I would rather my vote be a suspicious looking potential throw-away than encourage a two-horse race where I don't like either horse. I'm going with my logic from yesterday again - voting for someone with two votes on a known good who is a UTR type player. I don't really expect this to get any traction.

VOTE MRBUG708

What did I ever do to you?

You really can't blame me for voting CF. His antics screamed over the top, but if anyone was over the top in trying to lure two-face, it would have been CF and had I voted for Mauboy, I couldn't have switched as I wasn't at my computer, so that would have also looked bad. As for day 1 votes, that's just bad guessing on my part (and others)