WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So just doing a little brainstorming on the results the other day ... it looks like there were only two teams who grasped the travel patterns for Rio to Falklands. When I was crafting the telegram to Chief Rum that discussed this, I was at least a little concerned with the idea that the wolves might be benefit from me doing a little research. The fact that only one other team had this order, rather than 2-4 other teams, makes me feel a little better about my teammate.

Right now I feel pretty good about you, CR and Autumn.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Right now I feel pretty good about you, CR and Autumn.

cough cough

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

cough cough

I feel really good about you

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I feel really good about you

Thanks!

The only think that makes me wonder about Mau is I did guard him last night, so he may be seeing someting somewhat accurate if he is truthful about his reveal.

The problem with that is the way he worded it doesn't really make much sense when you match it up with my roles description. Plus, it wouldn't be a stretch for the wolves to assume I guarded Mau last night after guarding myself N1.

[GoldenEagle]

VOTE MAUBOY1

I think I have ran the I am seer do don't lynch me play before. The time to confess to such plan was Friday, not spew us with more BS. Since he is now admitting that he was never the seer, it does us virtually no harm to lynch him.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

Right now I feel pretty good about you, CR and Autumn.

Danny's trying to get on my good side. I'm curious why me though.

[Danny]

All three names I mentioned are very experienced/strong players. I believe that if any of you three were wolves, Lathum would likely be dead now.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

All three names I mentioned are very experienced/strong players. I believe that if any of you three were wolves, Lathum would likely be dead now.

Yeah, there really is no good reason I am alive.

[Autumn]

Ah, well, yeah that's probably true.

[cougarfreak]

I thought it was fishy yesterday, first time I've really checked in today. I don't see anything to change my mind.


vote mauboy

[CrimsonFox]

VOTE FRACQUCHFRESCA

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

VOTE FRACQUCHFRESCA

I'M A FORMAL SPECIAL AGENT!! I LOVE MY COUNTRY!!!

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

As to the speculation on Danny, [*SNIP*] It's unlikely but certainly possible that random.org put two wolves together...

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I'm going to go with the premise that if we know one of the partners is a villager, the other one has a high probability of being a mole.

Okay, let's talk statistics.

There are 20 players. Let's assume 5 wolves.

If I am a wolf, there is a 4 in 19 chance I will be paired with a wolf.
4/19 = a 21% Chance of two wolves being together. This is neither a high probability nor would I call it unlikely.

If 4 wolves, then 16%. But I think there are 5 wolves. If not then unlikely is the closer word. Certainly not HIGH probability.

[Danny]

I think the whole it's unlikely two wolves would be teammates argument is weak. If Mauboy turns up wolf, it does not make me any more or less likely to be a wolf.

[Danny]

In regards to random % that is.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

I think the whole it's unlikely two wolves would be teammates argument is weak. If Mauboy turns up wolf, it does not make me any more or less likely to be a wolf.

Exactly.

[hoopsguy]

Well, at some point I expect this game to get interesting again ... the last couple of days have just been a little bit odd.

I also feel a little bad about the "death of the fake reveal", based on results of the last couple of days. It is obvious that no one is buying something out of the ordinary in games, even when a person is telling the truth like Jackal was yesterday. It makes me sad to know I will have so little latitude the next time I'm a wolf caught with my hand in the cookie jar

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well, at some point I expect this game to get interesting again ... the last couple of days have just been a little bit odd.

I also feel a little bad about the "death of the fake reveal", based on results of the last couple of days. It is obvious that no one is buying something out of the ordinary in games, even when a person is telling the truth like Jackal was yesterday. It makes me sad to know I will have so little latitude the next time I'm a wolf caught with my hand in the cookie jar

Had EF put in the rules "additional roles may exist in the game" it would be a different ballgame.

And I will add if there are hidden roles then it sucks for Mau that EF didn't include it and hung him out to dry.

[Darth Vilus]

Vote Mauboy1

Sorry that I don't have more to contribute at the moment, I'm soooo tired. Went to bed at 2, woke up at 6 and had school. Today isn't super important though, we're all lynching Mau. I'll be better tomorrow

[Darth Vilus]

Vote Mauboy1

[EagleFan]

Quiet today. I guess the weekend hangover is still in effect.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Okay, let's talk statistics.

There are 20 players. Let's assume 5 wolves.

If I am a wolf, there is a 4 in 19 chance I will be paired with a wolf.
4/19 = a 21% Chance of two wolves being together. This is neither a high probability nor would I call it unlikely.

If 4 wolves, then 16%. But I think there are 5 wolves. If not then unlikely is the closer word. Certainly not HIGH probability.

there are not 5 wolves, at least if EF is maintaining the normal balance in FOFC games, which has been proven to be 4:1...5 wolves would make it 15:5...i dont think i have ever been a 3:1 game...there are 4 wolves and one is already dead

sorry all that i have not been around for the past few days...i know i missed the vote friday (not that it mattered), but there was much drinking to be done and several cute girls to hang out with.

i dont like the fact that mau is claiming a role that doesnt show on the the list, and no mention of hidden roles has been made by EF, so i have no problem with today...it would be different if he actually tried to give us a wolf so we could prove him, but this just doesnt make sense to me.

vote mau

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well, at some point I expect this game to get interesting again ... the last couple of days have just been a little bit odd.

I also feel a little bad about the "death of the fake reveal", based on results of the last couple of days. It is obvious that no one is buying something out of the ordinary in games, even when a person is telling the truth like Jackal was yesterday. It makes me sad to know I will have so little latitude the next time I'm a wolf caught with my hand in the cookie jar

Not true though, Tyketime got a ton of mileage out of a fake reveal last game, which people bought hook, line and sinker. Some games are open to it, that's all.

[Autumn]

I know I've been quiet mostly because all the thoughts i have are based on Mauboy being a wolf, and some voting analysis and hunches. I don't want to go ahead and put those all out there until the lynch, in case it's all wrong, and because I'd rather keep an eye on those I suspect and see if I'm right.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Obviously I'm the only person forced on a Friday night to sit at my computer working on a rush project all night.

hahahahahaha....i was so drunk when you posted this it wasnt even fair

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by saldana

hahahahahaha....i was so drunk when you posted this it wasnt even fair

Is it too late to get a run on Saldana going? ;-)

[CrimsonFox]

As I might be out of this whole thing in the next couple days (as toward the back of the pack), I want to reveal something minor to think about. It may be nothing. It may be something. Just keep this in mind down the road.

My partner GoldenEagle hasn't said a word privately about the race all game. I've asked him questions, made race suggestions, and kept him informed and I've received back no replies. Only reply I got was one message telling me what he put his stat bonus towards, but as far as leg to leg stuff he's been totally silent.

This could be nothing. It could be three things.
1) He may just be busy with work, busy with kids, busy with other things...but he did send that one email and hasn't made any excuse saying "Sorry, I've been busy with so and so. You keep sending in the orders". He's also kept voting.
2) He's not into this game. That's possible. Some people just become inactive when they realize they don't like it. He already said he knows nothing about the amazing race so maybe he just doesn't want to play. BUT he did send me that message of the other stuff. He also has voted so he's not entirely inactive.
3) He's too busy with the wolf stuff and cares more about that than the race. This would explain why he's fed me just enough that I know he's there. If he's a wolf, he probably doesn't want to say anything and I mean anything that might tip me off that he's a wolf, thus staying quiet. He might also have been cool with the voting for me plan. His statement at the beginning of the game about "he'd sell out his partner to find a wolf" seemed rather strident for the beginning of the game. LIke a wolf saying "I'm a villager and will do villager things".

So all 3 things make me suspicious. To counter all this of course is the fact that Mauboy is voting for him now. I don't think mau would try to throw suspicion on another wolf. That's what blows this whole thought up.

I don't want this thought to affect today's vote at all. Just something to think about in the future, especially if I'm last today.

[EagleFan]

Doing some of the prep work for the race...

Teaser alert............

Spoiler

Race Changing Event Roll

[Autumn]

It's interesting that you post that, CF. I'll go ahead and say that GoldenEagle is my top suspect, I have been planning on voting for him for a couple days. I'd have to go back and put together a list of the reasons why. But basically they include a vote Day 1 that could be construed as trying to help save Mauboy, and his reactions in thread to the whole Mauboy/Lathum/Jackal stuff.

I also found it interesting that Mauboy voted him - the wolves clearly knew he was going down at that point so it would have been wise of them to offer up a wolf and throw us off that trail, but I'm not sure they're thinking that many levels deep this game.

[Passacaglia]

Okay, everyone should reveal their race now before deadline, then we can see what race we are after deadline, just to cover our tracks.

Spoiler

I am white.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

As I might be out of this whole thing in the next couple days (as toward the back of the pack), I want to reveal something minor to think about. It may be nothing. It may be something. Just keep this in mind down the road.

My partner GoldenEagle hasn't said a word privately about the race all game. I've asked him questions, made race suggestions, and kept him informed and I've received back no replies. Only reply I got was one message telling me what he put his stat bonus towards, but as far as leg to leg stuff he's been totally silent.

This could be nothing. It could be three things.
1) He may just be busy with work, busy with kids, busy with other things...but he did send that one email and hasn't made any excuse saying "Sorry, I've been busy with so and so. You keep sending in the orders". He's also kept voting.
2) He's not into this game. That's possible. Some people just become inactive when they realize they don't like it. He already said he knows nothing about the amazing race so maybe he just doesn't want to play. BUT he did send me that message of the other stuff. He also has voted so he's not entirely inactive.
3) He's too busy with the wolf stuff and cares more about that than the race. This would explain why he's fed me just enough that I know he's there. If he's a wolf, he probably doesn't want to say anything and I mean anything that might tip me off that he's a wolf, thus staying quiet. He might also have been cool with the voting for me plan. His statement at the beginning of the game about "he'd sell out his partner to find a wolf" seemed rather strident for the beginning of the game. LIke a wolf saying "I'm a villager and will do villager things".

So all 3 things make me suspicious. To counter all this of course is the fact that Mauboy is voting for him now. I don't think mau would try to throw suspicion on another wolf. That's what blows this whole thought up.

I don't want this thought to affect today's vote at all. Just something to think about in the future, especially if I'm last today.

OMG THS IZ Y I VTD FOR GE!!! LETS TURN IT AROUND QUICK!

On a serious note... I'm thinking it's not too late to turn this thing around. Who's with me? I want to take another role. I want to see what funny thing EF sends me with my roll of film. For Lathum, it went into more detail about how he was looking into a peep hole at the Girl Power team with his pants down. Not relevant but funny nonetheless.

[mauchow]

take another roll. Although maybe role is more fitting, but, roll..

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

OMG THS IZ Y I VTD FOR GE!!! LETS TURN IT AROUND QUICK!

On a serious note... I'm thinking it's not too late to turn this thing around. Who's with me? I want to take another role. I want to see what funny thing EF sends me with my roll of film. For Lathum, it went into more detail about how he was looking into a peep hole at the Girl Power team with his pants down. Not relevant but funny nonetheless.

Yeah, I'd say it's too late to turn it around. I'm still thing that BS stuff was nothing more than a lame ass attempt to save your furry hide. Looks like we'll find out in a few.

[Passacaglia]

Yeah, seriously. Turn things around in just two minutes? Yer insane, dood!

[Autumn]

Well, it's an hour until lynch time guys.

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, it's an hour until lynch time guys.

Well, shoot, there I go again, showing how much I know!

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Okay, everyone should reveal their race now before deadline, then we can see what race we are after deadline, just to cover our tracks.

Spoiler

I am white.

[Zinto]

I am open to the discusion of switching from Mau to GoldenEagle but I am not sure if the pros outweigh the cons of doing so. I feel as though a lynch of Mau will tell us more about day one then anyone else right now. Plus if Mau comes up clean then we can always check out Golden tomorrow.

[Autumn]

But you guys will be too busy thrilling to my exploits in the race to even think about changing your vote.

[EagleFan]

JAG and mckerney start their race for Leg 3. They find their way back to Argentina and book a flight which will eventually take them to Hong King. The race is back underway.

[mauchow]

Well, I only need like 8 votes on GE to flip this thing around. What else can I do to help? Should I go back to being a seer? I will be a plain villager after tonight if I use my last roll.. or at least until leg 5 if I make it that far.

[saldana]

i literally just spent 45 minutes trying to figure out the fastest way to get from the falklands to macau..are the spots in the actual show this difficult to get to and from?

[cougarfreak]

Pair of Amazing Nuts are coming for the lead!

[Autumn]

I think you'd have a tough sell switching people to GE, a relative unknown, other than maybe to me. Why did you pick him, Mauboy, for your vote?

[EagleFan]

Team Ten "Team Fembot Terminator Squad" are the next to start the leg. They check the local flights and see nothing soon so they are on a boat heading towards Argentina. From there they have a flight booked to Hong Kong.

Lathum and The Jackal are next off and on their way. Lathum calls into some of his contacts in Vegas and they set him up with a flight which will connect into Macau. They first must head to Argentina and hop on the boat and are underway.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think you'd have a tough sell switching people to GE, a relative unknown, other than maybe to me. Why did you pick him, Mauboy, for your vote?

As I explained, I was playing the odds in that his partner was a villager so there is a slightly better chance of him being a wolf(but apparently that's not necessarily accurate...?).. and that he's been extremely quiet. There have been a few quiet players though, but him probably the most.

[EagleFan]

The remaining teams filter their way back into the race.

Team Nine, cougarfreak and PackerFanatic "The Pair of Amazing Nuts" finds a flight which will take them to Hong Kong.

Team Eight, Autumn an ntndeacon "The Reebok Ultra Team" poses for photo ops and signs autographs to enlist locals to help them. They book a flight which will take them into Macau.

Team Two, MartinD and saldana find themselves a flight which will take them eventually into Macau.

Team Five, CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle boat to Argentina and are on a flight taking them into Macau.

Team One, Darth Vilus and bhlloy find themselves booked into Hong Kong after getting back to Argentina.

Team Six, mauboy1 and Danny end up on a flight which will take them into Macau.

[Autumn]

Mauboy, remind me who you "photographed" on the previous nights?

[EagleFan]

As all teams are in the air the teams break down as follows (though not all on the same planes)...

Into Hong Kong:
JAG and mckerney
Chief Rum and hoopsguy
cougarfreak and PackerFanatic
Darth Vilus and bhlloy

Into Macau:
Lathum and The Jackal
Autumn and ntndeacon
MartinD and saldana
CrmsonFox and GoldenEagle
mauboy1 and Danny

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Mauboy, remind me who you "photographed" on the previous nights?

I only have two rolls of film in which I can use whenever I want. If I make it to the final 5 contestants in the Race where I would be awarded another roll. I used it on lathum last 'night' and found him hunkered down by himself in a defensive position apparently protecting me since I was actually already there snapping photos.