2009 NCAA Tournament Thread

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Chubby

If there were more midmajors we would have had all #1 seeds lose in the first round around with 15 other upsets...

Shut up, it's still up upset when a 12 beats a 5 regardless of what conference they come from.

This goes back to the post I was talking about earlier where I posted the lines from a bunch of the games. The lines were really close this year, be it because of a lack of mid majors or, more likely, a bit more parity than the last couple of years (2 years ago had the last upsets ever, last year had all 4 #1 seeds). Most of the upsets were 2 or less points on the point spread so they didn't seem as dramatic as in the past. This, again, goes back to my contention that it wasn't until the last set of games from last night that things got interesting (and apparently ESPN agrees with their headline overnight but I'm not sure I want to use them to help defend my theory).

SI

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

This goes back to the post I was talking about earlier where I posted the lines from a bunch of the games. The lines were really close this year, be it because of a lack of mid majors or, more likely, a bit more parity than the last couple of years (2 years ago had the last upsets ever, last year had all 4 #1 seeds). Most of the upsets were 2 or less points on the point spread so they didn't seem as dramatic as in the past. This, again, goes back to my contention that it wasn't until the last set of games from last night that things got interesting (and apparently ESPN agrees with their headline overnight but I'm not sure I want to use them to help defend my theory).

SI

As we all know, the lines have nothing to do with how the game expects to play out but where the money is going to go. With more midmajors, the money is going to fall harder on the power conference teams nescesiatting the need for bigger spreads. The number of upsets has nothing to do with the number of midmajors in the tournament. Rainmaker's song and dance gets a little tiring when he has nothing to back up his "More midmajors" routine.

[hoopsguy]

OK, three games and it is very much looking like three blowouts so far. Not exactly must-see-TV at the moment.

[sterlingice]

Nope- Texas A&M is keeping it kindof close but they look outclassed

SI

[LoneStarGirl]

After Thursday's game I Was really nervous about Memphis' chances of beating Maryland, but this type of game is what we have come to expect of our Tigers this year. I hate that CBS switched over to UConn vs A&M as soon as it started and hasn't switched back to the Memphis game.... even with UConn winning by 20+

[larrymcg421]

At least Vasquez is getting some Top Gun points for me.

[Thomkal]

boy these games today are real snoozers

[sterlingice]

It's been quality time to do other stuff while having the games on as background noise

SI

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

It's been quality time to do other stuff while having the games on as background noise

SI

Same here. I've gotten a few tasks done and am now just playing computer games while keeping the games on in the background. Hopefully, the late games will be more entertaining.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

It's been quality time to do other stuff while having the games on as background noise

SI

Agreed. I've actually just gone on to the DVR for now.

[sterlingice]

Aw man. UNC-LSU. I wanted to stay with that Washington-Purdue game

Time to get out the second laptop for MMOD

SI

[kingfc22]

Not good news for UNC fans. Looks like Lawson might be done for the day and who knows for next week

[Radii]

Lawson wasn't playing well at all anyway but damn that is a bad sign.

UNC has good depth inside(although I can't stand Tyler Zeller, he is technically depth), but thompson has 2 fouls, david and hansbrough 1 already.

Also, Thornton might score 40 today(see good guards against UNC all season long)

[Logan]

Nantz is slobbering all over Lawson.

[Radii]

I'm not sure why LSU decided that the contested 15-18 foot jump shot was superior to driving to the basket into the Carolina big men who all have some fouls already, but I do thank them for it.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Chubby

If there were more midmajors we would have had all #1 seeds lose in the first round around with 15 other upsets...

Shut up, it's still up upset when a 12 beats a 5 regardless of what conference they come from.

I wasn't saying that it wasn't an upset. I'm saying the average guy who looks at the scores is going to consider Siena a bigger upset than Arizona regardless of seeds.

Plus I said there is a ton of parity in college basketball. The difference between a 12 seed and 5 seed is much smaller than in the past.

[MizzouRah]

What a time for Channel 4 HD to go down..

[Radii]

Well, a rare nice defensive half for UNC, and a very nice showing in the post by Hansbrough, Thompson and Davis all. For all the slurping Lawson got for that one transition basket, he has been a hinderance, not doing anything with the ball that Frasor or Drew couldn't do, and he is obviously incredibly uncomfortable out there and his shot is way off.

Of course, if UNC continues to lead and this helps Lawson be more ready next week then that's all fine.

LSU's defensive stopper that we were chatting about Thursday is on Ellington, which makes sense instead of putting him on the PG, and he has done a good job making sure Ellington cannot get open for 3's in the half court set, but Ellington has still managed to have a solid 11 point half.

[Tigercat]

Originally Posted by Radii

I'm not sure why LSU decided that the contested 15-18 foot jump shot was superior to driving to the basket into the Carolina big men who all have some fouls already, but I do thank them for it.

Only Marcus Thornton is good at the drive to the basket, everyone else is below average for their position.

I think we are playing hard and well in general, UNC is just making all of their short range hooks and jumpers, even while well defended. (Which is most of the time) I am impressed that we have kept the UNC post men as far from the basket as we have.

If we have a little more shooting luck in the 1st half and Carolina a little less, its a very close game. But that's basketball.

[Radii]

haha well that was a nice start.

[hoopsguy]

Well, looks like this batch of games is an awful lot more competitive. Looks like UNC is going to need to squeeze everything they can get out of Lawson in the 2nd half of this game.

[sterlingice]

I'm surprised Purdue-Washington isn't closer

SI

[Dr. Sak]

I saw the Boilers up close 3 times last week and they were really clicking. Hummel is 100% and they were shooting lights out.

[Radii]

North Carolina might want to consider boxing someone, anyone, out.

[JonInMiddleGA]

[quote]#6 seed Arizona State is playing #11 seed Georgia at the Gwinnett Arena in Duluth, GA. That's 45 minutes or so from Athens but it's considerably closer than playing in Atlanta would be. I know the thought is to help attendance but they're playing in a nearly empty building, as UGA doesn't even draw well at home (unless Tennessee comes to town) and this particular mediocre squad inspired pretty much zero interest.[/i]

I think I just figured out where some of those fans were. Attendance for the basketball tournament game listed as 2,200 and change in the local writeup. Attendance for today's UGA-Miss St baseball game on campus? 4,461 which is a new record at Foley Field. I've seen the fans at both and there's a reasonable amount of non-student carryover between the two with older fans. I have to think that baseball game, for whatever reason, was the choice of at least 500 people who would have otherwise gone to the basketball tournament to follow the local team.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I hate it when some random comment makes me curious about the actual numbers. In this case the "shooting under 40%" comment from Rainmaker that MBBF quoted. I'm not looking to bust on Rainmaker here, I'm just curious figured I'd share and let people make of the numbers what they will.

Here's yesterday's teams in action (if you want to do Thursday have at it, it was tedious clicking through the box scores)

The numbers are their FG% & 3P%, the parenthetical is number of 3PA of Total FGA not made of attempted. After watching Tennessee crank up 3's all day I was curious about other teamsand decided to note while I was doing this.

SFA 24.7 & 09.5 (21 of 73)
Syracuse - 45.5 & 12.5 (16 of 55)
Tenn - 42.9 & 33.3 (33 of 56)
OkState - 56.6 & 33.3 (21 of 53)
Utah St - 41.5 & 30.4 (23 of 53)
Marquette - 36.2 & 26.3 (19 of 47)
ND State - 41.9 & 41.7 (24 of 62)
Kansas - 50.0 & 33.3 (12 of 64)
Temple - 37.3 & 35.3 (17 of 51)
Arizona St - 51.3 & 57.1 (14 of 39)
ETSU - 30.7 & 18.2 (22 of 75)
Pitt - 43.6 & 36.8 (19 of 55)
Dayton - 46.3 & 40.0 (10 of 54)
WVU - 36.7 & 25.0 (20 of 49)
Cornell - 35.9 & 28.6 (21 of 64)
Mizzou - 47.5 & 25.0 (20 of 59)
Morehead St - 38.5 & 36.4 (11 of 52)
Louisville - 58.0 & 41.7 (24 of 50)
Arizona - 54.5 & 33.3 (12 of 55)
Utah - 42.2 & 25.0 (32 of 64)
USC - 52.9 & 44.4 (9 of 51)
BC - 32.7 & 26.1 (23 of 55)
Portland St - 47.8 & 38.1 (21 of 46)
Xavier - 53.7 & 42.1 (19 of 54)
Siena - 33.3 & 25.0 (24 of 72)
Ohio St - 40.0 & 28.0 (25 of 60)
Cleveland St - 47.7 & 40.0 (15 of 65)
Wake - 52.0 & 38.5 (13 of 50)
Robert Morris - 41.0 & 29.4 (17 of 61)
Michigan St - 45.9 & 30.8 (13 of 61)
Wisconsin - 40.7 & 33.3 (27 of 54)
FSU - 43.5 & 30.8 (13 of 46)

By my count 8 of 32 teams playing yesterday shot under 40%. That looks to be the same number that shot over 50%.

Teams that shot under 40 went 2-6 yesterday, teams that shot over 50 went 7-1 (not surprising).

edit to add: And just because of MBBF's Big 10 note, their Thursday FG% were
Illinois 49.2, Minnesota 40.7, Michigan 39.2, and Purdue 41.2. Only 1 of 7 B10 teams were under 40% shooting although most were right at it, and the one that shot below that mark won their game.

NCAA® Weekly Rankings
The median FG% for all teams this season looks to be 43.8%, just to put some sort of baseline in there somewhere.

That's a nice breakdown. Might have seemed worse when I made the comment as they were switching back and forth between Siena-Ohio State and Wisconsin-FSU. I mean Siena won an NCAA tournament game shooting 33%. That is amazing to me.

Do you know if there is a way to find statistics like that for the 80's or 90's? I'd be interested to see if FG% has remained the same.

College basketball is odd to me for the simple reason that it's probably the only sport where a team from 25 years ago could beat up on a team from this era. I can't think of another sport that has that element to it. I think there are a lot of reasons for it, but I think the one and done rule the NBA implemented has actually hurt college hoops. We just don't see many great teams that have great juniors and seniors anymore. The one year players kill the continuity of teams and don't allow them to gel over years.

[LoneStarGirl]

I am SO impressed with LSU right now and their ability to respond to whatever UNC dishes out. After hearing all year about how the SEC was having a terrible year and how amazing the ACC teams were, it would be awesome for another ACC team to go down, especially at the hands of the SEC.

[Lathum]

Just got to Houston Bush Airport where I have a layover for an hour, signed in just in time to see an 8-0 UW run. Go Huskies!!

[Radii]

LAWSON. Damn what a change from the first half.

[hoopsguy]

Griffen with a tough make for "and 1" checks out his guns, then proceeds to clang a foul shot off the backboard. Nice.

Hey CBS, please change us over to the UNC game or the Purdue game if you insist on sticking with semi-local coverage.

[Karlifornia]

Let's go Huskies.

[Radii]

LAWSON. That's the 5th time he's gotten to the basket this half(scoring on 4 of them), this is why UNC has to have him playing. Total game changer.

[sterlingice]

LSU-UNC is getting out of hand now, it was tied at 63 and is now 74-63 North Carolina.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Radii

LAWSON. That's the 5th time he's gotten to the basket this half(scoring on 4 of them), this is why UNC has to have him playing. Total game changer.

Can't agree more- he makes a huge difference. That was why I was picking against them in some of my brackets- if he's out, they're definitely beatable. With him, they're the favorite.

SI

[Radii]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Can't agree more- he can make a difference. That was why I was picking against them in some of my brackets- if he's out, they're definitely beatable. With him, they're the favorite.

Its going to be real interesting to see how badly this messes him up for next week(assuming Carolina hangs on to win, not a sure thing at all yet). I'm going to be rooting big time for Western Kentucky tomorrow, that's for sure.


As for the 11-0 run since it was tied at 63, UNC has stopped giving LSU offensive rebounds at will, and Thornton has gone cold again, I think he missed 3 3 pointers during that stretch, when earlier in the half he wasn't missing anything at all.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

That's a nice breakdown. Might have seemed worse when I made the comment as they were switching back and forth between Siena-Ohio State and Wisconsin-FSU. I mean Siena won an NCAA tournament game shooting 33%. That is amazing to me.

I was legit curious when I started looking them up & was surprised to see that myself really.

Do you know if there is a way to find statistics like that for the 80's or 90's? I'd be interested to see if FG% has remained the same.

I imagine you could find some odd reference somewhere by Googling through random articles about shooting or the tournament but probably your best would be to find the box scores from older tournaments. Heck, going one by one through the box scores on ESPN is how I pulled that together this morning (and it was every bit as tedious as it sounds).

I think there are a lot of reasons for it, but I think the one and done rule the NBA implemented has actually hurt college hoops.

As you might suspect from me noting it here, I think the complete dependence that many teams have developed on the three has to be part of it. There's always exceptions and even moreso in limited samples like this one but typically teams don't shoot the three as well as they shoot the two. But there's quite a few teams that are shooting close to half of their total shots from out there, it has to drive total FG% down. Granted, watching Tennessee persist at it all season is influencing my perception of the problem (and they're pretty much the poster children for it) but it has to be a pretty decent impact for a lot of teams. I understand why teams do it, you can't just shoot twos when the other guy keeps hitting threes and "4 of 10 from 3 is the same number of points as 6 of 10 from 2" and all that but it does make for more missed shots.

[RainMaker]

Good effort by LSU but it's tough to beat UNC at home.

[Radii]

great defense by purdue in this final 90 seconds

[Noop]

Bracket...officially busted. Washington was a final four team in most of my money brackets.

[Karlifornia]

Washington had a chance....Purdue buckled down there. Now U-Dub has to hope for a missed free throw.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

As you might suspect from me noting it here, I think the complete dependence that many teams have developed on the three has to be part of it. There's always exceptions and even moreso in limited samples like this one but typically teams don't shoot the three as well as they shoot the two. But there's quite a few teams that are shooting close to half of their total shots from out there, it has to drive total FG% down. Granted, watching Tennessee persist at it all season is influencing my perception of the problem (and they're pretty much the poster children for it) but it has to be a pretty decent impact for a lot of teams. I understand why teams do it, you can't just shoot twos when the other guy keeps hitting threes and "4 of 10 from 3 is the same number of points as 6 of 10 from 2" and all that but it does make for more missed shots.

I think the same could be said for all of basketball. The NBA has a lot of teams/players that shoot way too many 3's. Even stars like Lebron are chucking up 4-5 3's a game when they are not good 3-point shooters.

[Karlifornia]

Washington put themselves in a hole, and just couldn't get over the hump. Now Purdue has the extremely daunting task of facing Connecticut.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think the same could be said for all of basketball. The NBA has a lot of teams/players that shoot way too many 3's. Even stars like Lebron are chucking up 4-5 3's a game when they are not good 3-point shooters.

For many college teams, they aren't taking too many 3's at all. 33% from 3 = 50% from 2 as Jon pointed out, and the top 50 3 point shooting teams in the country this year are all over 37%(looking for a list of all 330+ teams but top 50 is all I've found in a quick search so far). So these teams are lowering their FG % but they are likely far more effective as a result of the 3 point shot.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Radii

and the top 50 3 point shooting teams in the country this year are all over 37%(looking for a list of all 330+ teams but top 50 is all I've found in a quick search so far). So these teams are lowering their FG % but they are likely far more effective as a result of the 3 point shot.

Try that NCAA stats link I had in my original post about this. It'll give you about 200 & someodd of the D1 teams, basically all of those who average more than 5 three point shots a game. There were some who didn't show up because of that criteria apparently but it covered most of them. IIRC from a quick glance, the range of difference for 3 point shooting from one team to the next was smaller than I would have expected.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I am not sure where you are going with this. I am just talking about D-1 basketball. What do football national titles have to do with how D-1 basketball teams should be evaluated? Butler, Georgetown and Villanova all field football teams at the FCS level. Butler is considered mid major in basketball while Georgetown and Villanova are definitely majors. Conversely, I don't think of Memphis football as a major college football program despite the great success of the basketball program. My point is that many of the "mid-major" conferences have teams that have moved beyond "mid-major" status and should no longer be looked upon as such. In turn, many "major" conference teams are more fitting of "mid-major" status based on the current state of their basketball programs. The Miami Hurricane basketball program is MUCH more worthy of mid major status than any of the programs that I mentioned before IMO.

It's about the conference you're in, coupled with who you play and how small your school is. Davidson will always be a mid-major unless they win a national title and then get invited to play as a basketball only member of a major conference.

Gonzaga is the same.

It's not a moniker that's being misapplied, at all. Being a "solid program" and being "a few seasons away from being obscure" is a pretty thin line for most of the mid-majors. Even Gonzaga could fall on hard times if Mark Few were to leave, a new coach who didn't have his magic at recruiting or having a team gel, and unlike Carolina or Duke (a team that was a bottom feeder in a major conference pre-Coach K) who have years of pedigree to fall back on if times get hard on the court.

It's also about revenues.

Those mid-major programs still probably aren't revenue generating programs, because of all of the work those schools have to do to keep them in the national conversation or to fly them from Hell to Thermopolis to get them to play teams that might get them some recognition.

George Mason made the Final Four. But they're still a mid-major and nothing is going to change that, save for a decade or more at the top level..at which time, they'll surely change conferences as a result.

I do think there is a difference between mid-major programs like Butler, Gonzaga or state university teams like Utah, Memphis or some school from the Missouri Valley Conference who have basketball pedigree and can roll out good years where they get multiple bids to the tournament, versus say, micro-majors from one-bid leagues like the MAAC, Atlantic Sun, Sun Belt or the HBCU conferences (MEAC, SWAC) who are D1INO (Division 1 in Name Only) and who recruit kids based on that fact and whose ONLY reason for being up is the shot at getting into the tournament.

So the real distinction is between the mid-majors and those teams, not the major conference schools and the mid-majors, because by and large..while the teams change, the conferences basically remain the same and they're at the behest of a system that renders them pretty expendable.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Try that NCAA stats link I had in my original post about this. It'll give you about 200 & someodd of the D1 teams, basically all of those who average more than 5 three point shots a game. There were some who didn't show up because of that criteria apparently but it covered most of them. IIRC from a quick glance, the range of difference for 3 point shooting from one team to the next was smaller than I would have expected.

Yeah there you go. 210 teams in division I shoot 33% or better from 3. That'll lower your overall FG % but is more effective than most teams are capable of inside the 3 point line.

[duckman]

Griffin is just a monster! 32 points and 15 boards today!

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

BOOM MOTHERFUCKERS!!! WISCONSIN ADVANCES!

Booyah

The finish to those two games last night were just awesome.

[Karlifornia]

LOL...WKU has a player named....get ready for this: Steffphon Pettigrew

[Tigercat]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Good effort by LSU but it's tough to beat UNC at home.

Agreed. Even with the double digit loss, I am very proud as a LSU fan. Its hard to describe how well they improved the post defense and rebounding to hang with UNC through most of the second half. UNC was playing in front of a home crowd, and they hit a lot of tough shots. I don't think anyone in the nation would have beaten them tonight.

Will have to appreciate this LSU season for a while though, we are going to SUCK next year, even if Tazmin Mitchell comes back.