2007-2008 NBA Regular Season Thread

[Brian Swartz]

Very true. But there's little in the way of stats that tell you much convincingly one way or the other, and he's got a reputation from what I can tell of being a good defender. Whether or not it's justified -- really that's just speculation from anybody who's just a fan.

[Chief Rum]

Haven't there been some decent stats developed in sabermetric style for basketball that do the job of better defining defensive ability? I don't generally follow the stats-heavy side of it, but I'm sure there is. I would think we should go to that far more than steals, which for every time you get a steal, there is probably three or four times that you played it too aggressive, got out of position and got burned by the guy you were on.

[ThunderingHERD]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

which for every time you get a steal, there is probably three or four times that you played it too aggressive, got out of position and got burned by the guy you were on.

Yeh, I guess that's why the list of all-time steal leaders could double as a list of all-time biggest defensive liabilities. You know: John Stockton, Michael Jordan, Gary Payton, Scottie Pippen, Hakeem...

[stevew]

http://www.82games.com/

Site does a good job of breaking down a variety of stats/situations.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ThunderingHERD

Yeh, I guess that's why the list of all-time steal leaders could double as a list of all-time biggest defensive liabilities. You know: John Stockton, Michael Jordan, Gary Payton, Scottie Pippen, Hakeem...

You do know that defense is preventing people from scoring, right? Even the best guys stealing the ball stop the play on that possession just three or four times per game. A very good defender affects shots every single time his guy shoots--and if he is any good, he will be on the opponent's best offensive player.

And those guys aren't always great thieves.

Steals and good defense aren't exclusive, and there is, as you point out, a strong corollary between the two. That said, if you think that's the end of the argument, you must also think batting average is the best indicator for a great hitter or that interceptions makes a cornerback an all-time great.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

This is a bizarre post. I didn't think people still compared Kobe to Jordan? In thirty years, people will probably be comparing players to Kobe, Jordan, and Lebron.

Jordan, almost certainly. Lebron, definitely. Kobe? I think he's too similar to Jordan. He might be as good as MJ, but he breaks no new ground.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You do know that defense is preventing people from scoring, right? Even the best guys stealing the ball stop the play on that possession just three or four times per game. A very good defender affects shots every single time his guy shoots--and if he is any good, he will be on the opponent's best offensive player.

And those guys aren't always great thieves.

Steals are far from perfect, but if you look at blocks, I think most would accept that the leaders in blocks also alter the most shots in the league. Beyond that, I haven't seen a defensive stat that tells us how good an individual is. If there was one widely available, I don't think Ben Gordon, Michael Redd, Kevin Martin, Jason Kidd (yes he was great, but now he's slow) or Yao would be getting 12 million a year.

[MrBug708]

Bruce Bowen is the biggest a-hole in the league

[JeeberD]

Life is good...

[JeeberD]

Dola-

I can NOT believe that in the three-ish weeks since I've last been on the board that there's been ZERO (well, maybe one if you count TA's "Who needs Yao?" post) mention of the Rockets streak.

Y'all suck...

[MrBug708]

Would have been nice if the Lakers could have been at semi fulls trength

[JeeberD]

Don't EVEN go there...

Yao + Landry > Gasol + Bynum

[stevew]

maybe we'll get to see tmac win a playoff round this year.

[cartman]

I saw them win game #2 of this streak in person.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Dola-

I can NOT believe that in the three-ish weeks since I've last been on the board that there's been ZERO (well, maybe one if you count TA's "Who needs Yao?" post) mention of the Rockets streak.

Y'all suck...

I would have never believed that a Western conference team could win 21 straight games and take the conference lead and get less credit for it than the Rockets have gotten so far nationally. Yes, they have not won a first round series in forever. However, to hear most people talk, you would have thought the Rockets have only played the Heat for 21 straight games.

[cartman]

scratch that. I saw them 3 games before they started the streak.

[JeeberD]

So you've seen a part of the 26 out of 27 stretch. Still not too shabby...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Don't EVEN go there...

Yao + Landry > Gasol + Bynum

You're smoking something if you believe that.

That said, I agree that arguments about missing players is silly when each team is missing a major player.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You're smoking something if you believe that.

Have you seen Landry play? He's much better than his modest numbers indicate. In fact, I might dare say he's the best rookie on the team...

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

That said, I agree that arguments about missing players is silly when each team is missing a major player.

Agreed.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You're smoking something if you believe that.

When all 4 are healthy its much closer than you'd think. Landry has been the most productive rookie in the NBA by far this year on a per minute basis. Yao is Yao.

If I'm thinking long term I'd take Gasol and Bynum, but as far as production at this stage I'd probably go with Yao and Landry.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Have you seen Landry play? He's much better than his modest numbers indicate. In fact, I might dare say he's the best rookie on the team...



Agreed.

I have seen Landry play, and he's a solid player who is only going to get better. That said, Bynum is much better than he is, and has shown it over much more minutes per game, and with no help whatsoever in the post when he was on the floor. He's also a much stronger shotblocker and makes a difference to how teams play the Lakers on the interior.

I think in two years, this discussion could be more interesting, as Landry figures to make his own leaps. That said, most scouts believe Bynum is a good deal of the way to being a star-level player.

Yao is the best of the four, because of his immense size and impact in the middle, but Gasol is an All Star himself who certainly matches Yao's scoring and nearly his rebounding (surprisingly). I think the difference between Landry and Bynum right now is significantly further than between Yao and Gasol (although that latter is a tough judge, since they are really such different types of players).

One other factor to be considered--the lack of Yao removes one of the Rockets' top two options, but what was Landry--seventh option? Maybe? Him not being in the lineup just means more minutes for Scola or Battier stays out there a bit longer. The loss of Gasol (the clear #2) and Bynum (established himself as the only serious inside option pre-Gasol) means Odom jumps to #2. And anyone watching the Lakers the past few years knows there is no player less suited to a necessary team-carrying role than Odom. Odom is a terrific complementary player with all his skills. But Charmin advertises "tougher" products than Odom. He is just not a #2 guy. He wilts under that pressure. So the return of Gasol and Bynum doesn't only bring them back, it also brings Odom "back."

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

When all 4 are healthy its much closer than you'd think. Landry has been the most productive rookie in the NBA by far this year on a per minute basis. Yao is Yao.

If I'm thinking long term I'd take Gasol and Bynum, but as far as production at this stage I'd probably go with Yao and Landry.

Landry was averaging 16 mpg on the year. Sorry, I need to see him do it much longer than that more consistently. There are tons of scrubs in this league who produce strong 48-min numbers. If they all produced like that over longer minutes, they would be playing those minutes.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Landry was averaging 16 mpg on the year. Sorry, I need to see him do it much longer than that more consistently. There are tons of scrubs in this league who produce strong 48-min numbers. If they all produced like that over longer minutes, they would be playing those minutes.

If Landry didn't have to split time with possible ROY Luis Scola, he would easily be getting more minutes. And he was seriously coming into his own before his knee injury.

I would have to say that he was far from the Rockets seventh option when he was out on the floor...probably second or third, depending in you're counting Yao or not. Without Yao out there he's easily our best low-post scorer, he makes a huge difference for us. If he was playing today the Lakers probably wouldn't have made that big third quarter run because they would have pounded the ball down to him instead of settling for jumpers...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

If Landry didn't have to split time with possible ROY Luis Scola, he would easily be getting more minutes. And he was seriously coming into his own before his knee injury.

I would have to say that he was far from the Rockets seventh option when he was out on the floor...probably second or third, depending in you're counting Yao or not. Without Yao out there he's easily our best low-post scorer, he makes a huge difference for us. If he was playing today the Lakers probably wouldn't have made that big third quarter run because they would have pounded the ball down to him instead of settling for jumpers...

It doesn't matter why he wasn't getting the minutes, though, Jeeber. It's the fact he wasn't. He hasn't proven anything playing so few minutes. And I'm talking full team option, so he is at best third (Yao counts). And Scola, a ROY candidate, would rank ahead of him and so would Alston, because no way third or fourth inside scorer in limited minutes is a higher option than the second perimeter scoring option and a starter. And Battier is also starting.

I'm not saying Landry didn't have his impact, nor am I saying he won't produce just as highly per minute given more minutes, but you're asking me to accept that on faith when, frankly, those numbers far often don't increase in direct propertion to minutes increased.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Landry was averaging 16 mpg on the year. Sorry, I need to see him do it much longer than that more consistently. There are tons of scrubs in this league who produce strong 48-min numbers. If they all produced like that over longer minutes, they would be playing those minutes.

There aren't tons of scrubs in the top 50 for PER and Landry ranks 11th. The only other bench player in the top 50 is Leon Powe in Boston. His usage rate (which will give you a good idea of where he is as a team's option) is a little higher than Bynum's as well.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

There aren't tons of scrubs in the top 50 for PER and Landry ranks 11th. The only other bench player in the top 50 is Leon Powe in Boston. His usage rate (which will give you a good idea of where he is as a team's option) is a little higher than Bynum's as well.

Sorry, Atocep, 28 mpg trumps 16 mpg. Until I see the figure on the right rise and make them more comparable, I have a very hard time figuring Landry is somehow so much greater or even equal. Since around the time Yao got hurt, Landry was averaging over 21 mpg and his points went up appreciably as one of the interior post scoring replacements (from 8 to 12 ppg), but his rebounding numbers only went up from 5 to 5.7, and he only had two blocks in that entire stretch of games. Even if you doubled everything from his current season stats (16 mpg to 32mpg), you're looking at 17 ppg and 10 rpg--the latter of which is less than Bynum in four more mpg, and his blocks are nowhere near Bynum's numbers. The scoring is better for Landry, but then my guess is Bynum would score more on a younger team--he isn't needed to score as much on the Lakers--just enough to keep teams honest. And once again, Bynum has shown this with actual minutes--Landry's projected production isn't real until he does it and consistently on a long term basis (and the only stretch I have found of increased time actually shows a decline in his rpm rating and a lack of increase in bpm).

And Landry isn't scaring anyone coming into the paint or affecting shots. And he's 4 years older than Bynum with two years less experience. Like Thornton with the Clips, I suspect Landry is going to get a little better--but not much better, certainly not the jump in production you would expect from a player coming out of high school (and which we have already seen starting to blossom with Bynum).

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Dola-

I can NOT believe that in the three-ish weeks since I've last been on the board that there's been ZERO (well, maybe one if you count TA's "Who needs Yao?" post) mention of the Rockets streak.

Y'all suck...

Dammit, Jeeber. You're not supposed to jynx stuff. Geez. Now the next loss is all your fault

SI

[Sublime 2]

Great game between the C's and Spurs!! C's win by 2 after being down 22 w/o Ray Allen.

[Brian Swartz]

San Antonio is dead in the water and will be lucky to get out of the first round. Their age has finally caught up to them, a year before I hoped it would(age of the role players, that is).

[molson]

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

Great game between the C's and Spurs!! C's win by 2 after being down 22 w/o Ray Allen.

The Celtics won 24 games last year, and have won at various times this year without Garnett and Allen. 53-13 is ridiculous. By far their best season since the '85-'86 monster. I know I'm stating the obvious here, but damn.

[JeeberD]

Tomorrow's game should be pretty freakin' awesome...

[Groundhog]

What's Houston's record this year without Yao? When is he expected back?

[JeeberD]

10-0 the last ten games.

He'll be back for the Olympics...

[molson]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Tomorrow's game should be pretty freakin' awesome...

This has been the most exciting/interesting NBA regular season I can remember, ever. Part of that is my Celtics bias, but yes, can you possibly have a better matchup than tomorrow night? The NBA is on fire.

[JeeberD]

Apparently Ray Allen won't play tomorrow night...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...n/5627365.html

Conversely, Carl Landry has said that he may play tomorrow night. I'm not holding my breath, though.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Tomorrow's game should be pretty freakin' awesome...

It will be hard for the C's to have a full tank tonite. Mentally they will be fine, physically that was all out against the spurs.

[SirFozzie]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200....ap/index.html

I think Garnett will be up a bit more about this. What a fucking twit.

"Oh, we didn't tank last year. KG tanked it."

After what he's done for the franchise. Just plain wow.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200....ap/index.html

I think Garnett will be up a bit more about this. What a fucking twit.

"Oh, we didn't tank last year. KG tanked it."

After what he's done for the franchise. Just plain wow.

That's basically the type of thing that Taylor has been saying the last couple years. According to him almost nothing is the fault of the front office guys who are there, but Flip Saunders takes a lot of the blame for some of the players they've lost. Absolutely no blame will go to the guys who are Taylor and McHale's guys, which has earned the front office the nickname of The Country Club in Minnesota. This is why Dwayne Casey was fired for being inconsistent when he had the team at 20-20 and in position to compete for the 8th playoff spot, but then when Randy Wittman was consitantly bad finishing 12-30 he was given a 3 year extension, he's one of the country club guys. Nearly everyone who isn't a part of the country club has face blame from McHale and Taylor for the failures of the team.

This team is an absolute mess and impossible to root for. The guys who screwed this team up are still in charge and the team is mostly full of unlikable players with little upside.



Some previous quotes from Taylor:

I have never said this before, but I will be very blunt about that—Rasho only left because of [former coach] Flip [Saunders].

I can tell you that Chauncey [Billups] left not because of Kevin but because of Flip.

[mckerney]

And as far as KG being responsible for tanking, it was McHale who told Garnett he wouldn't be playing the last several games last season. And I doubt it was Garnett's idea that Mark Madsen shoot 7 3's in the Wolves' final game of the 2005-2006. To make matters even worse, the Wolves didn't get players of real value as a result of those two years of tanking.

[stevew]

Garnett sat out all those games last year at the end, and it was pretty suspicious looking. It could have easily have been the difference between them getting their first rounder, and having to transfer it to the Clippers to complete the Jaric trade(it was top 10 protected).

[larrymcg421]

Rockets streak is coming to an end. Boston up 77-56 with 8:45 left and the Rockets have nothing left in the tank.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Rockets streak is coming to an end. Boston up 77-56 with 8:45 left and the Rockets have nothing left in the tank.

I would make more of this, except the Rockets are playing without Yao and Landry.

(And if the streak does end, wow, way to go Rockets...)

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I would make more of this, except the Rockets are playing without Yao and Landry.

(And if the streak does end, wow, way to go Rockets...)

And the Celtics are playing the 2nd half of a back to back, without Ray Allen

At least this will shut up the "Celtics would be a poor team in the west" talk.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

And the Celtics are playing the 2nd half of a back to back, without Ray Allen

At least this will shut up the "Celtics would be a poor team in the west" talk.

They would!

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

They would!

Sure, let's not let facts get in the way or anything

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Sure, let's not let facts get in the way or anything

fact: Something that actually exists; reality; truth.

The Boston Celtics play in the Western Conference. i.e. Not a fact.

Thus, your sentence is not true.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Dammit, Jeeber. You're not supposed to jynx stuff. Geez. Now the next loss is all your fault

SI

See? See??

SI

[JeeberD]

Well, that sucked. It had to end sooner or later, but I just wish it hadn't been so...ugly.

[Groundhog]

Miami Heat's starting 5 tonight:

Chris Quinn
Daequan Cook
Ricky Davis
Earl Barron
Mark Blount

Not surprisingly, 26 points at half time.

[larrymcg421]

Is there a bigger pussy in basketball than Mark Blount? The guy is 7'0" but is one of the worst rebounders I've ever seen. I was so glad to see this guy leave the Celtics.

[Groundhog]

Harris out as Bucks GM.

On paper, I thought these last two years he did a good job. Just didn't translate on the court. Lots of pieces, but the puzzle still ended up looking like crap.

Great opportunity for the next GM though, because this is a team that can make some moves in the offseason.