08-22-2006, 03:35 AM | #801 | |
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08-22-2006, 05:35 AM | #802 | |
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ex. When I mentioned historical, you added "within past 50 yrs" When I mentioned civil wars, you mentioned "foreign intervention" I just though it would be worthwhile to clearly define the parameters before proceeding and not give each other "easy outs/wiggle room" in our future discussions. Under the assumption that A,B,C,D is not excluded by your interpretation of GLT, I would again state that GLT is true. Without a clear response from you on my above question of A,B,C,D I will assume this discussion of GLT with you is complete. Mojo. Thanks for your analysis on GLT and your understanding of my wish to establish a baseline of understanding. I agree, without A,B,C,D the GLT is hard to "prove with contemporary historical evidence" due to (1) lack of clear examples due to lack of overwhelming foreign military force/conflicts and (2) existence of UN and East/West polarization of major powers that have made such GLT conflicts untenable. Regardless, I think you agree with me that with suppositions A,B,C,D that GLT is true? Last edited by Edward64 : 08-22-2006 at 05:36 AM. |
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08-22-2006, 06:11 AM | #803 |
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It looks as if Italy will take the lead.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,209724,00.html Good for them. Disappointed the French did not step up. I can understand the risks (ex. it can go sour quickly) to them but it would seem they would want to play the leadership role and establish their eminence in Europe. Using the Foreign Legion would minimize the negative domesitc impact if it became a shooting conflict with Hezbollah. Also disappointed with the Chinese. At least with India they have a large Muslim population that could complicate their internal politics. With China this would seem to be a perfect opportunity to present themselves as the emerging world leader. (It would be a sight to see a bunch of Orientals in the Holy Land). |
08-22-2006, 09:05 AM | #804 | |||
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Yes, my reply wasn't directed at you specifically, though it is tangential. To be completely honest, I checked out of your discussion with MrB about GLT (mostly because I don't have the time to read it all, not necessarily because of its merits). Quote:
First of all, I don't want to seem nitpicky, but in any conversation like this, one's choice of words can often be very important. Subjugate means one thing, but your subsequent description of a generalized military occupation is something else entirely. Secondly, I must go back to MrB's requirement that you choose examples from the last 50 years. There's a reason for this. On one topic alone, technology, we can say that the playing field for guerilla warfare has changed immensely in the past 50 years. Today, a people under military occupation have a large number of tools at their disposal which make it easier for them to keep in touch and/or wage war against an enemy which has superior technology. Iraq is a very good example of this. Quote:
But it's not the same difference at all. Compare these two scenarios: 1. Iraq's security situation as it exists now. 2. Iraq's security situation with a "secret police" of native Iraqis, loyal to the U.S. military, who have the ability to infiltrate any sector of Iraqi society and "correct" people at will. Which, do you think, would result in a more subjugated Iraq? Imagine Nazi Germany without the Gestapo & SS. Imagine the Soviet Union without the KGB. Which brings me back to my original point. Under realistic conditions, I don't think you can have a miltary force alone that will effectively subjugate a people in this day and age. Case in point: Iraq. Under hypothetical conditions (such as putting 5 million U.S. troops into Iraq), you might, but the problems inherent with realizing such a hypothetical scenario suggest deeper flaws with such a plan. |
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08-22-2006, 05:41 PM | #805 | ||||
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Question, under the assumption that GLT also applies to "civil wars", do you still believe the GLT is not true? My example is the Khmer Rouge, they effectively overthrew the Cambodian royalty/government and controlled the country (and would probably still be in power without Vietnamese intervention). Quote:
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I state again that the GLT link did not specifically say 50+ years or not include civil wars. It seemed pretty general in its stated theory. Last edited by Edward64 : 08-22-2006 at 05:45 PM. |
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08-27-2006, 05:40 PM | #806 | |
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In other words, they would have been deterred to capture Israeli soldiers knowing the response. Or perhaps, if the IDF did not do what it did, Hezbollah would not have had second thoughts now? |
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08-28-2006, 07:59 PM | #807 |
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Or perhaps Nasrallah's acting contrite now, knowing full well that Hezbollah now has the opportunity to earn the respect of the radical islamic world by rebuilding most, if not all, of southern Lebanon before the international community can get itself in gear?
Just because he's a radical doesn't mean he can't have good PR. |
08-28-2006, 08:08 PM | #808 |
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There is no way this can be spun into a victory for Israel. Both sides are worse off, that's what usually happens in war. Knowing what they know now, Israel wouldn't have escalated the conflict either. This is not the end of the greater conflict.
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09-02-2006, 07:08 AM | #809 | |
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Although too early to tell, the current situation seems to have stabilized. With UNIFIL (and EU participation), Syria's pledge to back the embargo (wonder if the UN will be monitoring this?), Olmert's domestic disenchantment/distractions ... the odds are probably much lower that another conflict will flare up.
Charles Krauthammer had an interesting article but hard to gauge the accuracy of his text. It would be nice if this was true but hard not to think Krauthammer is looking through rose-colored glasses. http://www.townhall.com/columnists/C...hollow_victory Quote:
I do think its good that other non-Middle Eastern muslim countries are participating in UNIFIL (ex. Indonesians). |
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09-02-2006, 01:39 PM | #810 | |
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I would love to know what Krauthammer bases his thinking on, because the facts say something different:
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09-02-2006, 02:54 PM | #811 | |
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I found this line of thinking worth noting here.
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As for the "Lebanese", it's a bit ambiguous. Does it mean the Lebanese Government, prominent Lebanese, or Lebanese citizens in general. Who knows. |
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09-02-2006, 03:14 PM | #812 | |
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I think it means Ralph Nader. |
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09-02-2006, 03:16 PM | #813 | |
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09-03-2006, 01:27 AM | #814 |
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09-21-2006, 08:58 PM | #815 | ||
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14946254/ How did I missed this brewing? Abbas seems willing to take chances for peace, hopefully he will turn out to be a Palestinian George Washington instead of a politician that sold out a people. I don't understand why he would do this without first exacting some concessions/understanding with Israel. Or maybe they already have a secret agreement negotiated? |
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09-21-2006, 09:31 PM | #816 | |
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Abbas and Fatah already recognized Israel. They've been holding out on forming a unity government with Hamas until Hamas also recognized Israel. Apparently Hamas has now agreed to that... |
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09-22-2006, 05:29 AM | #817 | |
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Sorry, forget it. Back to the same old grind. |
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09-22-2006, 05:09 PM | #818 |
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and today Hezbollah thumbed their nose at the UN agreement they agreed to to stop the conflict and will not disarm. Imagine that. Biggles? Should we trust them again, next time?
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09-22-2006, 06:01 PM | #819 |
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Israel completed their pullout and ended the blockades. How come they haven't gotten the two prisoners back and how come Hezzbollah have/will not disarm?
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09-22-2006, 07:25 PM | #820 | |
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I don't know why you can't see that this is Israel's fault. |
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09-22-2006, 09:35 PM | #821 |
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09-22-2006, 10:23 PM | #822 |
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...yet they'll site UN doctrine and law when accusing Israel of warcrimes like using the cluster bombs in civilian areas, which, should be investigated by the UN and followed up on just like anything else should be. Neither side is immune from the laws that we all agree to. What I have noticed about this is what is good for the goose is NOT good for the gander in the eyes of Nasrallah.
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09-22-2006, 10:56 PM | #823 |
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Time for a post mortem analysis on the latest conflict?
Hezbollah = 1, Israel = 0 Hamas = 0, Israel = 1 Hamas = ?, Fatah = ? Hezbollah vs Israel. Not militarily, but hard to argue that Hezbollah did not emerge stronger it this most recent conflict. The pro-West government has not been too vocal/public, not a good sign. Hamas vs Israel. I don't see any significant shifts in advantage, more or less the same status quo. Hamas vs Fatah. I don't know. |
09-23-2006, 12:29 AM | #824 | ||
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I agree the fighting didn't make much difference, but Hamas may be starting to feel the impact of having foreign aid cut off (it's been half a year now). As I noted earlier in this discussion, they were ready to deal on recognition of Israel at the beginning of this round of fighting, and might be again. I know they just bailed on Abbas, but Abbas must have had some reason to believe what he did. Most likely there is some internal conflict... I don't think they can hold out forever, recognition is not a popular enough political issue for them (i.e. most Palestinians appear to be willing to recognize Israel). Quote:
Advantage Hamas. Before this fighting Abbas and Fatah were waiting for Hamas to come to them, and Hamas were the ones leading the charge for a unity government. Now, the reverse is true. Abbas and Fatah have to make nice with Hamas to show their street cred. At least in the short term, fighting always helps the hawks, no matter how stupid or pointless it is. |
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02-03-2007, 07:08 PM | #825 | |
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A 6+ month update just to see how things are shaping up. Hezbollah = 1, Israel = 0 Hamas = 0, Israel = 1 Hamas = ?, Fatah = ? Still no basic change to my Sept evaluation but some interesting things have happened. Hezbollah was able to flex its power and have popular demonstrations in Lebanon against the pro-west government. The general in charge of the Israeli war resigned/fired, a tacit acknowledgement that Israel did not achieve its military goals. But Israel did get its international buffer zone and relative peace (haven't heard of any incidents). However, Hezbollah's influence seems to be as good as ever, if not increased. Hamas and Fatah continue their fraticide even after 2 cease-fire agreements between the top leadership and Egyptian mediation (read the Egyptian colonel said Hamas broke the initial cease-fire). http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16940679/ Even if the leadership wants peace, it seems the lower minions find a way to break the cease fire, one way or another. Unfortunately, even with new elections, I doubt the loser would respect the people's vote and the power struggle will continue. I know there would be alot of bloodshed, but it seems that one side or the other just needs to militarily overwhelm the other and impose its will on the loser ... then the Israelis will know who to negotiate with. |
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02-03-2007, 08:52 PM | #826 |
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17 pages. Wowza.
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11-24-2007, 07:51 PM | #827 | |
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And there you have it. |
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11-25-2007, 05:51 PM | #828 |
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Call me an optimist ... but I see the planets lining up ... this is the best chance in recent memory for some sort of peace between the 2 (Hamas excluded of course).
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11-28-2007, 06:58 PM | #829 | |
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From Time.com, of all places
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Winners were also Olmert and Abbas, and Rice. |
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04-07-2008, 09:27 PM | #830 |
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12-28-2008, 06:21 AM | #831 | |
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Sheesh. What a fu*king waste. Air strikes on Gaza continue as deaths rise - CNN.com
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12-28-2008, 09:27 AM | #832 |
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De facto government in Gaza, not the West Bank.
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12-28-2008, 10:22 AM | #833 |
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What would be the appropriate level of response from Israel? Lob Russian-made mortars back at them?
Where was Rice? Where was anyone the past 1300 years? You think Clinton will do anything more than a few photo ops and the promise of a future agreement without violating Obama's pro-Israeli stance? |
12-28-2008, 10:30 AM | #834 |
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They've exercised too much restraint for too long, which is why this mild response was necessary. They live next to a den of rattlesnakes & from time to time you have to at least kill a few of them. Pity they haven't wiped out the entire nest.
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12-28-2008, 10:46 AM | #835 | |
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How about surgical strikes, targeted assasinations? Bill got us close, did Bush try to close the deal? Nope, not willing to (this was before 9/11). So what did Rice do in the past 4 years in ME? Last edited by Edward64 : 12-28-2008 at 10:46 AM. |
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12-28-2008, 10:49 AM | #836 |
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I don't disagree with your analogy about rattlesnakes and wiping out the nest. To kill/maim children is uncalled for. Sure they weren't specifically targeted but there was bound to be collateral damage with those strikes. Send in your animal control and wipe them out.
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12-28-2008, 11:13 AM | #837 | |
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Occasionally there's a less harmful critter caught in the vicinity when you take out snakes. Shit happens. And let's be realistic, it's not as though there's never been the use of children as weapons in the region either.
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12-28-2008, 11:38 AM | #838 |
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Reverse Terrorism.
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12-28-2008, 11:39 AM | #839 |
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Israel's already tried that.
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12-28-2008, 12:52 PM | #840 |
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You poke the lion with a stick enough times and the lion is going to rip an arm off. That is what happened here. The collateral damage of children is a shame but Hamas should have thought of that before they started poking the lion again.
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12-29-2008, 09:20 AM | #841 | |||
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You may be interested to learn that you agree with Alan Dershowitz, writing in March. Quote:
Who knows? Generally, there's two levels of diplomacy, the overt & public kind, and the backchannel kind. Since the Bush Administration has generally been disinclined to put serious effort into backchannel efforts, one must assume that the bulk of their efforts have been in the form of Rice's overt & public diplomacy. However, the problem with this approach is that ever since 2003 U.S. diplomacy in the region has been seriously hampered by the baggage saddled onto it by our Iraq misadventure. So, while I'm sure Rice has been putting an honest effort in, it's like the meek 5'0" teacher telling two 17-year-old boys not to fight when you know, as soon as her back is turned, that they're going to try and knock each other out. Contrary to popular opinion, I think the U.S. actually exercises a lot of control over Israel from the standpoint of getting them to exercise restraint. I think if the U.S. let them do their own thing, they'd be a lot more brutal in their responses than they are. On the flipside, the U.S. obviously exercises very little control over Hamas because, well, the reason should be obvious. So, no matter which administration is in power, you're not going to get Israel to back down (the best you can do is to convince them not to engage in wanton bloodshed on a regular basis) and you're not going to get Hamas to the negotiating table. In fact, it's in Hamas' best interest to provoke Israel even more, because it lends legitimacy (at least among their supporters) to their own actions). I think the only avenue to "peace" would be to, in a very, very covert & backchannel manner, maneuver someone to the top of Hamas eventually who might be inclined to some sort of settlement. This would probably take forever and is pretty unlikely, but there you go. Otherwise, I think you're left to hope that eventually the Palestinian population en masse would reject Hamas and promote leaders inclined to a settlement, which also seems unlikely. The other avenue everyone talks about is letting Israel engage in a "scorched-earth" policy which, although cathartic for the bloodthirsty, has still never been a successful strategy against terrorists/guerrillas/insurgents/etc.... Quote:
I honestly don't think Hamas cares who dies, even among Palestinians. In fact, to them the death of Palestinian children is a good thing, as it lends support to their cause against Israel. |
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12-29-2008, 09:27 AM | #842 | |
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I feel Ezra Klein puts it well:
EzraKlein Archive | The American Prospect Quote:
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams Last edited by ISiddiqui : 12-29-2008 at 09:28 AM. |
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12-29-2008, 09:32 AM | #843 |
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Yep.
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12-29-2008, 10:03 AM | #844 |
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The thought of the U.S or European powers negotiating peace in that region is on the same level as the financial institution bailout hoopla. At some point, shit happens. Stop trying to make short term gains by creating peace that is bound to fail. Let 'em fight it out, regardless of who is right. If there's any hint of intentional killing of civilians with the purpose of exterminating the other side, then you step in.
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12-29-2008, 10:15 AM | #845 |
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12-29-2008, 10:19 AM | #846 |
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12-29-2008, 11:04 AM | #847 | |
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Yep I agree with ISiddiqui's post. Edit: Both sides are going to fight and there's precious little anyone else can do about it. To think otherwise is to ignore what, 1300 years of history now? More? Additionally, although I'm sure majorities on both sides would actually prefer peace, there's a heavy disincentive to actually stand up and say so, since those who do tend to get killed. Honestly, we'll have cold fusion before this conflict gets resolved. Come to think of it, we'll probably also have magical flying unicorns as well before these people stop fighting. Last edited by flere-imsaho : 12-29-2008 at 11:10 AM. |
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12-29-2008, 11:15 AM | #848 | |
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Isreal should have done what the Brits did in Northern Ireland when they allowed Sinn Fein to rule. As soon as Hamas got elected, Isreal decided to throw up a blockade and what do you think is going to be the result of that? If even humanitarian aid can't get through, they are going to lash out. Should have at least allowed them to govern to see if they'd moderate as Sinn Fein did when they got into power. This way solved nothing. And around and around it goes.
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12-29-2008, 11:29 AM | #849 |
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Well, bear in mind that Sinn Fein ruled (rules) in a power-sharing agreement with the Unionists, and only did so after Gerry Adams did everything in his power to disassociate Sinn Fein from the Provisional IRA.
But I agree. It would have been interesting, at least, to, once Hamas got elected, suddenly have the Israeli government do a 180 and treat them as an actual state. Worst case scenario Hamas starts bombing Israel again and now Israel can say "Look, we sent an ambassador and everything! WTF?! This is no different from Egypt invading us!" and they've got a ton more legitimacy on their side. |
12-29-2008, 12:50 PM | #850 | |
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Ligitimacy? Do you honestly think that is there for the taking if and only if Isreal makes all the right moves? In whose eyes? The western world? They already give Israel legitimacy. The Middle Eastern world? No way. Jews attacking Muslims because they are sovereign would make it even worse, not better. Keep in mind that the ultimate goal for the majority of the Middle East is to destroy Isreal. Not figure out ways to get along with them in a beat down of another Muslim state. Give the Muslims an inch and they will take a mile. Isreal simply hasn't the real estate to deal like you think they should. Israel has a responsability to provide Palestinians a voice (either by giving them Isreali citizenship or by giving them their own state) but I'd caution you not to confuse the Palestinians terroristic ways as legitimate diplomacy that demands and deserves Isreal immediate attention. And if getting Palestinians humanitarian aid is truly the issue of their rocket attacks, how is it possible that the Palestinians can get a hold of rockets and weapons so easily but not food and medicine? I wouldn't put too much stock in the Palestinian grief that they can't get anything in or out of their territory. I'd say they are pulling a fast one on the sympathetic international community. |
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