The Official NBA 2016 Offseason Thread

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by nol

Kevin Durant was the most efficient post-up player in the entire NBA last season.

According to what?

stats.nba.com has him listed as 6th in FG%, 48th in FT frequency, 33rd in TO frequency, outside the top 50 in both drawing shooting fouls and And One situations, and 2nd in scoring frequency.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

According to what?

stats.nba.com has him listed as 6th in FG%, 48th in FT frequency, 33rd in TO frequency, outside the top 50 in both drawing shooting fouls and And One situations, and 2nd in scoring frequency.

Per Synergy he was #1 points per possession posting up. He was only 47th in total attempts however.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#...rcentile&dir=1

[nol]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

According to what?

stats.nba.com has him listed as 6th in FG%, 48th in FT frequency, 33rd in TO frequency, outside the top 50 in both drawing shooting fouls and And One situations, and 2nd in scoring frequency.

So if he has the 6th highest field goal percentage, doesn't turn it over a ton, and shoots 90 percent on free throws that easily adds up to being the most efficient player.

He posts up more than the vast majority of wings and will have even more opportunities to do so considering he can't be automatically double teamed every time like he was in OKC.

[Zinto]

Reggie Jackson is out 4-6 weeks with knee tendonitis. And my heart is broken before the season even starts.

[Sublime 2]

Jaylen Brown looked competent and aggressive (anti-Jeff Green) last night. I liked it, I like it a lot.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Obviously they're clear favourites, but even with Durant I feel like last year's Warriors team was more balanced than this year's - Bogut's passing and defensive grit, Barnes' versatility, and Speights' freakish scoring ability. They'll drop 130 on teams, but let's see what happens come playoffs.

Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but pre-season last year I felt 2015-16 was an inevitable Warriors title, and coming into this season I don't feel nearly as strong about it. I think there is a real possibility of chemistry issues with Klay, too.

They won 73 games last year with an enormous point differential and added one of the best players in the game. They have 3 elite shooters on the perimeter and a stretch-4 who can defend every position. No one stands a chance against them. It's a 1-team league for the next few seasons.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

They won 73 games last year with an enormous point differential and added one of the best players in the game. They have 3 elite shooters on the perimeter and a stretch-4 who can defend every position. No one stands a chance against them. It's a 1-team league for the next few seasons.

They won't win this year and KD will exercise his option next offseason and leave for a different team. I said this is in July when he signed, and I still believe it to be true. Or if he stays, someone else will leave.

[Chief Rum]

Dola, if somehow the stars are all still there next season, though, I do think they are an ironclad lock to win in 2017-2018 and probably going forward for a bit there, too.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

They won't win this year and KD will exercise his option next offseason and leave for a different team. I said this is in July when he signed, and I still believe it to be true. Or if he stays, someone else will leave.

If they don't win this year it'll be one of the greatest chokes in professional sports history.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

If they don't win this year it'll be one of the greatest chokes in professional sports history.

They upgraded SF/PF, but downgraded C and their bench. They've got very little in the post. There's nothing about it that would be a choke.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

They won 73 games last year with an enormous point differential and added one of the best players in the game. They have 3 elite shooters on the perimeter and a stretch-4 who can defend every position. No one stands a chance against them. It's a 1-team league for the next few seasons.

Durant has an option next year. Curry, Iggy, Livingston, and Zaza are all FA next year. They're taking one shot at it before GS has to retool, likely without Durant. The only way around that is if Curry takes a discount deal.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

They upgraded SF/PF, but downgraded C and their bench. They've got very little in the post. There's nothing about it that would be a choke.

Upgraded? They went from Harrison Barnes to a top-3 player. One of the best shooting wings in the league. To pair with the greatest shooting backcourt in the history of the game. They perhaps have the best PG, SG, SF, and PF in the Western Conference.

They also don't need a strong post game. It's an inefficient offense that slows the pace of the game down (something the Warriors do not want).

The Warriors are unstoppable if healthy. They can stack the 3-point line with elite shooters at the 1-4. These shooters will get wide open looks.

[nol]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

They upgraded SF/PF, but downgraded C and their bench. They've got very little in the post. There's nothing about it that would be a choke.

How much of a downgrade do you think it is that would cancel out upgrading from Barnes to Durant?

[Zinto]

Did the Warriors really downgrade their bench and at center that much? Is Pachulia really much worse than Bogut? Is David West worse than a not 100% Ezeli and Speights? Are Rush and Barbosa significantly better than whatever guards the Warriors end up keeping?

I really don't think so. And even if the bench has worse players always having one of Durant or Curry and one of Green or Thompson on the court will mask those issues.

As long as there are no major injuries and Draymond doesn't start getting kicky again they should win the championship. And if they win the championship there is almost no way that Durant or Curry leave. Why would they?

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by Zinto

As long as there are no major injuries and Draymond doesn't start getting kicky again they should win the championship. And if they win the championship there is almost no way that Durant or Curry leave. Why would they?

Durant would almost certainly. He took the reputation hit to get a ring. Once he's got it, he can opt out and go somewhere else and try to rebuild that a bit. Curry might if he decides he doesn't want to take a discount and opts for a max deal.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

Durant would almost certainly. He took the reputation hit to get a ring. Once he's got it, he can opt out and go somewhere else and try to rebuild that a bit. Curry might if he decides he doesn't want to take a discount and opts for a max deal.

Exactly. There were about a thousand rumors out there about the one year option KD signed, or was looking to do. And another thousand articles on the GS's situation with Curry and KD and the cap next season. Anyone who thinks this is more than a one year thing doesn't want to look at the truth of it.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

They won 73 games last year with an enormous point differential and added one of the best players in the game. They have 3 elite shooters on the perimeter and a stretch-4 who can defend every position. No one stands a chance against them. It's a 1-team league for the next few seasons.

Yep, they were the best scoring team in the NBA, and they added another scorer (albeit one of the best in the league). It wasn't their lack of scorers that cost them the title last year...

They will probably win the title next year, but I just don't think they will be as good a team as last season's (...which was the greatest of all time not to win a title, I guess).

[nol]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Yep, they were the best scoring team in the NBA, and they added another scorer (albeit one of the best in the league). It wasn't their lack of scorers that cost them the title last year...

They were tied in the last minute of Game 7 and only gave up 93 points, so it surely couldn't be a lack of defense you're referring to. Harrison Barnes was 3-10 with nobody guarding him. Andrew Bogut didn't even play so it's not like the team is incapable of playing good defense without him.

[murrayyyyy]

The Warriors also got the biggest favor in scheduling this year with the following.

The Warriors host twelve back-to-back road games this season; tops in the league while the Orlando Magic have only TWO such opponents.

The Warriors get nineteen opponents playing in at least their third straight road game this season. This is not only tops in the league, it is nearly half their home games.

On the other end, we find the Thunder, who only have five games this season in which their opponent is playing in at least their third straight road game.

The Warriors also lead in number of opponents playing in at least their fourth road game with fourteen. This must seem unfair to the Raptors, which only get one opponent all season that is playing in at least their fourth straight road game.

I'm really giving over 67 wins a hard look this season.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

The Warriors also got the biggest favor in scheduling this year with the following.

The Warriors host twelve back-to-back road games this season; tops in the league while the Orlando Magic have only TWO such opponents.

The Warriors get nineteen opponents playing in at least their third straight road game this season. This is not only tops in the league, it is nearly half their home games.

On the other end, we find the Thunder, who only have five games this season in which their opponent is playing in at least their third straight road game.

The Warriors also lead in number of opponents playing in at least their fourth road game with fourteen. This must seem unfair to the Raptors, which only get one opponent all season that is playing in at least their fourth straight road game.

I'm really giving over 67 wins a hard look this season.

That's great for the regular season.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

Durant would almost certainly. He took the reputation hit to get a ring. Once he's got it, he can opt out and go somewhere else and try to rebuild that a bit. Curry might if he decides he doesn't want to take a discount and opts for a max deal.

But Curry doesn't have to take a discount to keep the team together. He can sign a max contract, Durant can sign using the non-bird exception (LeBron did that in Cleveland last year), and they don't have to renounce either Livingston or Iggy. And if the cap is at the projected 102 million Durant will only be giving up 1.7 million dollars to bring back the Warrior's top six players. Plus he will still be on track to sign a giant five year contract with the 7.5% raises after the Warriors gain his bird rights. (Thanks Danny Leroux!)

(This is all subject to change based on the new CBA.)

[Zinto]

I am not sure I understand the argument on why the Warrior's are going to be worse on defense. Bogut only played 17 minutes a game in the playoffs. And I don't know who else they lost that was important to their defense.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by Zinto

But Curry doesn't have to take a discount to keep the team together. He can sign a max contract, Durant can sign using the non-bird exception (LeBron did that in Cleveland last year), and they don't have to renounce either Livingston or Iggy. And if the cap is at the projected 102 million Durant will only be giving up 1.7 million dollars to bring back the Warrior's top six players. Plus he will still be on track to sign a giant five year contract with the 7.5% raises after the Warriors gain his bird rights. (Thanks Danny Leroux!)

(This is all subject to change based on the new CBA.)

Interesting, I hadn't seen that take on it. It still leaves them without a single post player if they do that and guys like West and Zaza walk, unless Damian Jones works out. That's a pretty big gamble, but probably worth it if they win it all this year.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

That's great for the regular season.

And then what's great for the playoffs is that they took the best player off of one of two teams that has played them close over the past two years.

Originally Posted by Zinto

But Curry doesn't have to take a discount to keep the team together. He can sign a max contract, Durant can sign using the non-bird exception (LeBron did that in Cleveland last year), and they don't have to renounce either Livingston or Iggy. And if the cap is at the projected 102 million Durant will only be giving up 1.7 million dollars to bring back the Warrior's top six players. Plus he will still be on track to sign a giant five year contract with the 7.5% raises after the Warriors gain his bird rights. (Thanks Danny Leroux!)

(This is all subject to change based on the new CBA.)

Yeah, it's not like the Warriors did all that maneuvering for just one year of Durant when everyone else is in prime age.

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

Interesting, I hadn't seen that take on it. It still leaves them without a single post player if they do that and guys like West and Zaza walk, unless Damian Jones works out. That's a pretty big gamble, but probably worth it if they win it all this year.

How many post players did the Miami Heat have when they won championships? If anyone walks, they are easily replaced by a bunch of other players who will sign for the minimum to win championships. Dwyane Wade from 2012 would be the 4th- or 5th-best player on this year's Warriors.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I am not sure I understand the argument on why the Warrior's are going to be worse on defense. Bogut only played 17 minutes a game in the playoffs. And I don't know who else they lost that was important to their defense.

Ezeli, while playing less, was also a good defender. Bogut's post passing is going to be a loss as well. Zaza is probably a slight downgrade from Ezeli on defense and a big downgrade from Bogut.

Both of their draft picks this year have strong defensive reputations. If Jones gets healthy, and can contribute as the year goes on, that could make future plans a bit easier.

However it works out, GS is again going to be a fascinating team to watch this year.

[nol]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

Ezeli, while playing less, was also a good defender. Bogut's post passing is going to be a loss as well. Zaza is probably a slight downgrade from Ezeli on defense and a big downgrade from Bogut.

Yet for all intents and purposes, all those guys are just there to eat up minutes so the Warriors only have to play their best lineup when absolutely necessary. That would make a difference if the Warriors were trying to win 74+ games in the regular season, but that won't be happening.

[korme]

Saw a great what-if question.

If the NBA decided this season that the Warriors had to play in jeans, how many wins do they get?

I think they miss the playoffs

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by korme

Saw a great what-if question.

If the NBA decided this season that the Warriors had to play in jeans, how many wins do they get?

I think they miss the playoffs

Depends. We talking skinny jeans here? Or baggy low hangers?

[nol]

So the guy who was 7 feet tall, athletic, and coordinated might actually be pretty good at basketball: Joel Embiid throws down the hammer and hits a three/

[wustin]

With Ben Simmons out, Brown, Dunn, and Ingram coming off the bench, my 2 cents for ROY will either be Embiid or Buddy.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by wustin

With Ben Simmons out, Brown, Dunn, and Ingram coming off the bench, my 2 cents for ROY will either be Embiid or Buddy.

I'd add Saric to that group.

[nol]

Embiid had 13 and 5 rebounds in his stint while being guarded by Gasol and Randolph. He's definitely trying to make up for lost time by how often he shoots it but he's reasonably efficient thanks to drawing a ton of fouls and making 80+ percent of his free throws. At the rate he's going, the Sixers may finally be able to get a rising star like Julius Randle or Alex Len for him in a trade.

Per 36 minutes: 25.9 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.6 blocks

[wustin]

How many personal fouls does he average per 36 minutes?

[wustin]

dola

if my math is correct he's averaging 7.01 fouls per 36. Total fouls divided by total minutes then multiplied by 36.

Edit: Shaq and DeAndre weren't close to being that foul prone during their rookie years. Embiid may not average more than 20 minutes a night.

[nol]

I would guarantee you they (or just about any other rookie big man) were that foul-prone in the very first NBA action they saw; the summer league gives players 10 fouls before disqualification for a reason. I watched Towns get 9 in his first summer league game (after fouling at the same rate Embiid did in college) and wasn't worried either.

Embiid could commit zero fouls over the next 6 months and he's still only playing 20 or so minutes a night this year. At that point you might as well be fouling to stop easy baskets considering you won't be playing enough to be in any real danger of fouling out.

[korme]

Originally Posted by nol

Embiid had 13 and 5 rebounds in his stint while being guarded by Gasol and Randolph. He's definitely trying to make up for lost time by how often he shoots it but he's reasonably efficient thanks to drawing a ton of fouls and making 80+ percent of his free throws. At the rate he's going, the Sixers may finally be able to get a rising star like Julius Randle or Alex Len for him in a trade.

Per 36 minutes: 25.9 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.6 blocks

This feels so backhanded. Even with all of the injuries I believe his ceiling is higher than Randle or Len.

[nol]

Originally Posted by korme

This feels so backhanded. Even with all of the injuries I believe his ceiling is higher than Randle or Len.

Hey, just gotta give all the people who last year would have traded Embiid for a player like that (or Jordan Clarkson, or the 16th pick in the draft) some time to ease into things

[nol]

The new CBA looks like it's going to be wrapped up relatively soon without a lockout. From what I can gather, the revenue split is going to stay the same with the most likely changes being more league-funded education and medical expenses for retired players and a larger rookie scale similar to the NHL's in terms of prorating the salary based on time spent in the D-League.

Embiid watch: 11 points and 12 rebounds in 14 minutes tonight. He made Marcin Gortat look not very big and John Wall look not very fast

John Wall vs. Joel Embiid pic.twitter.com/bNH55mMYzU

— Wesley Share (@wesley_share) October 14, 2016

then a bonus from him leading a fast break

[Groundhog]

I don't think anyone doubts Embiid's ceiling. It's his ground floor most people are worried about. He looks good in 13 mins of pre-season time, but I'd like to see him make it through 70 or so games in the regular season before I get too excited about his future. I'm rooting for him though.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I don't think anyone doubts Embiid's ceiling.

I don't know, his ceiling is basically a blend between that of fully healthy Greg Oden and Karl-Anthony Towns, which would at least be higher than anyone's since LeBron's, and yet he was available with the 3rd pick in the draft. I don't think too many people had been saying his ceiling is high enough that it's more or less immaterial whether the Sixers get anything in return for Okafor or if Ben Simmons ends up being any good. I was thinking I was a little too biased towards Wiggins for preferring him over an injured Embiid for the first pick in 2014, and yet here we are with none of the other top picks in that draft looking particularly close to being All-Stars and Embiid looking like a monster immediately after a 2.5 year layoff.

Even if he somehow can only play 20 minutes per game for the rest of his career, it's likely going to be better than what Marcus Smart or Julius Randle or Aaron Gordon could contribute while playing heavy minutes, and obviously none of those guys have done too much in the past two years to make up for the first two years of Embiid doing nothing.

[wustin]

I'm looking on Reddit and people actually believe Harden will be the MVP. The Rockets will be lucky to get the 5th seed.

[nol]

Not too ludicrous once you consider that LeBron will be conserving his energy during the regular season and the Warriors players will take votes from each other.

I don't know what the odds say, but I'd bet on Kawhi and then Harden assuming those other guys and Westbrook are considered heavier favorites. Harden could plausibly average 30 and 12 this year.

edit: he's averaging 25, 13, and 6 rebounds per 36 minutes so far in the preseason, and the Rockets have been winning by enough that he hasn't had to be particularly aggressive in looking for his shot so far

[stevew]

JR Smith got 57 Million.

[wustin]

Originally Posted by nol

Not too ludicrous once you consider that LeBron will be conserving his energy during the regular season and the Warriors players will take votes from each other.

I don't know what the odds say, but I'd bet on Kawhi and then Harden assuming those other guys and Westbrook are considered heavier favorites. Harden could plausibly average 30 and 12 this year.

edit: he's averaging 25, 13, and 6 rebounds per 36 minutes so far in the preseason, and the Rockets have been winning by enough that he hasn't had to be particularly aggressive in looking for his shot so far

I personally think it will either be Kawhi or CP3.

[Atocep]

MCW's value is so low he's on verge of being traded for Tony Snell.

But the Sixers were dumb for trading him.

[wustin]

He couldn't shoot, he turned over the ball a lot, and he can't defend. Sixers still have the Lakers' pick from that deal. The Sixers may end up having 2 lottery picks in this year's stacked draft class.

[nol]

Originally Posted by wustin

He couldn't shoot, he turned over the ball a lot, and he can't defend. Sixers still have the Lakers' pick from that deal. The Sixers may end up having 2 lottery picks in this year's stacked draft class.

Yeah but, if they kept Carter-Williams and surrounded him with the right free agents they might have been more competitive and won 25 games last year!

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Atocep

MCW's value is so low he's on verge of being traded for Tony Snell.

But the Sixers were dumb for trading him.

Don't they get the Lakers 1st (protected this year 1-3) or next season from the Suns when they traded him away? I'll take the pick.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Don't they get the Lakers 1st (protected this year 1-3) or next season from the Suns when they traded him away? I'll take the pick.

Yes, protected this year and no protections next year. If they land the pick in this draft it's enormous value from that trade.

They still have Sacramento's 2019 pick as well.

[wustin]

Derrick Rose found innocent by the jury. Turns out Jane Doe was caught being a gold digger.