2008-09 College Bowls/Postseason thread

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Haven't we already decided that the transitive property isn't very good, particularly in college football with such a limited sample size? Is Chattanooga better than Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Mizzou because OU scored less against them?

Or do we just go back to My Team Is Better Than Your Team - The Transitive Property of College Football and point out:


Therefore, Florida is better than Oklahoma
as shown in 1 rounds by a combined score of 24 - 14.


Therefore, Oklahoma is better than Florida
as shown in 5 rounds by a combined score of 181 - 117.

(and there's always...)


Therefore, Utah is better than Florida
as shown in 3 rounds by a combined score of 86 - 67.


Sorry, I can't show that Florida is better than Utah.

SI

Florida > Utah... and much shorter than your post.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Florida > Utah... and much shorter than your post.

I think so too, but how do you KNOW that? Utah never met its match this season.

Any system where a team goes undefeated but doesn't get a chance to play for a championship is stupid and broken.

[Eaglesfan27]

Then you have teams like Ole Miss that put up their 2nd highest point total of the entire season when they played Texas Tech. The only team they scored more on was ULM.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Then you have teams like Ole Miss that put up their 2nd highest point total of the entire season when they played Texas Tech. The only team they scored more on was ULM.

Which is why you can only use a single game to compare the two teams that played. For everything else, you have to look at the entire season, and then it is still an opinion. Otherwise, if it was that cut and dried, the Vegas bookies would go broke.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Then you have teams like Ole Miss that put up their 2nd highest point total of the entire season when they played Texas Tech. The only team they scored more on was ULM.

That might be an indication that TT simply has the second worst defense Ole Miss saw all season.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

That might be an indication that TT simply has the second worst defense Ole Miss saw all season.

Which is my point. Yet they were 1 of the higher rated defenses in the Big South 12 whose best team was rated 49th in overall defense. I'm thinking that the conference was overrated, particuarly with their collective lack of success in the post season and the soft OOC schedule that almost all of the teams played.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by MylesKnight

Come on Jon, Utah handled 'Bama just as soundly as Florida did, which is the only common thread we really have to look at.

Florida without a key player beat 'Bama. 'Bama without a key player got beat by Utah. Give each of the respective teams their key guy and then see how close those games are. I am in no way saying 'Bama would have by default beaten Utah. It sure as hell would have been closer and the SEC title game would have only been worse.

Oh, and I think Tebow has reached Chuck Norris levels last night after that announcing team couldn't stop fellatioing Tebow enough.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Fun Fact...Oklahoma and Texas were held by Florida and Ohio State to their lowest point totals of the year. Kinda supports the fact that the defenses in the Big 12 were lacking eh?

Something that seems to have been lost in the shuffle is that Florida was held to their lowest point total of the season by that flag football OU defense.

Congratulations to Florida. They made the big plays when they needed to.

OU played their hearts out, and they have no reason to hang their heads. The offense didn't execute as well as they should have (especially in the red zone), but offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson deserves a lion's share of the blame for his horrible play calling.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I think so too, but how do you KNOW that? Utah never met its match this season.

I watched six of Utah's games this year, so I feel like I have a good handle on them. First, they have a damned good team, there's no question about that. However, I think that TCU was the best team in the Mountain West this year. They went into Salt Lake City on Nov. 6th, and absolutely dominated the game against Utah, outgaining the Utes 416-275. Utah won the game 13-10, due to TCU missing three chip shot field goals and dropping a wide open TD pass. It was as much as a gift win as you'll ever see.

Then, Utah caught the perfect storm against an unmotivated Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl, and to their credit, they took full advantage of it.

However, if you put this team up against a motivated USC, Florida or Texas in a championship scenerio, they wouldn't come close to winning the game.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Something that seems to have been lost in the shuffle is that Florida was held to their lowest point total of the season by that flag football OU defense.

Let's also add to the debate that all three schools haven't played a live game in some time.

[sterlingice]

Let's substitute a few names just to show how silly some of the previous things said are.

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Something that seems to have been lost in the shuffle is that Florida was held to their lowest point total of the season by that flag football OU defense.

Exactly. It's as I said earlier:

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Or it could be that Ohio State and Florida were the two highest ranked teams they played (aside from each Texas playing OU)? And maybe better teams play better defense?

Great, so you've proven that putting up 60 on Texas A&M is a lot easier than putting it on Florida... which we already knew.

SI

Well, there may be more of an emphasis on defense in the SEC. Or it could also be that there isn't as much offense in the conference as other conferences. The better players get picked up for D more.

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Which is my point. They were the only highly rated offense in the SEC who only had 1 team in the top 25 in the country. I'm thinking that the conference was overrated, particuarly with their collective lack of success in the post season and the soft OOC schedule that almost all of the teams played.

We all know they like to schedule a soft OOC because they can always fall back on national talking heads to say "The SEC conference is the toughest in the country so they will get tested later". Florida, for once, played a good non-confence schedule so they deserve credit for that and deserved to be in the national title game. But for many of the other teams, that just wasn't true. Remember that post from a couple of weeks ago with records of non-con opponents and, yeah, the SEC does fall pretty short.

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Fun Fact...Florida was held by Oklahoma to their lowest point totals of the year. Kinda supports the fact that the defenses in the SEC were lacking eh?

Sure, but it could also be the product of Oklahoma being the best team Florida played all year, too, as I stated before.

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Florida's next lowest point total was 26 against Miami...a whole 2 points more than what they scored today. Miami not Miami (OH)

Miami's low points (allowed) came against Florida State & Georgia Tech, one of which LSU dropped 38 points on.

That seems like a real stretch to prove a point. Picking a select stat of an opponent and then finding another opponent and then saying what they did- what is this, six degrees of Kevin Bacon? Or, more simply, one or a select couple of games could be a giant blanket endictment on an entire conference but that negates looking at the whole body of work.

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

The entire year all we heard was how great the SEC was, and when the notion was brought up that maybe no one in the conference had depth, all the SEC people quickly dismissed that.

All I am point out is that maybe it is true, and I believe it is true. Not only looking at the scores of those games but also don't you think teams that play against each other every year would have a better gameplan to stop an opponent rather than a random Big XII or Pac 10 team?

You can dismiss the transitive property but you can't dismiss that the SEC, did go 1-1 in the BCS. And when you look at the wins for the SEC, only Florida looks any good. And when you consider the fact that Alabama was suppose to blow Utah out by all accounts...maybe the SEC wasn't all it was built up to be.

That seems like you're being awfully hard on the SEC- they had a good year. Florida did win the mythical national title and the conference did pretty well in bowls. But I know you guys love to think you always have the best football teams ever down there, so maybe anything less is disappointing. I guess it's like I was talking about before- you can't just look at a couple of games and extrapolate it when there's a whole other body of work to look at.

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

^

What he said.

Good, we're all in agreement now

SI

[Noop]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Something that seems to have been lost in the shuffle is that Florida was held to their lowest point total of the season by that flag football OU defense.

I would hope so given they had about a month to prepare for Florida. I still think OU if they had any kind of short yardage success would have pulled off a major upset.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

I watched six of Utah's games this year, so I feel like I have a good handle on them. First, they have a damned good team, there's no question about that. However, I think that TCU was the best team in the Mountain West this year. They went into Salt Lake City on Nov. 6th, and absolutely dominated the game against Utah, outgaining the Utes 416-275. Utah won the game 13-10, due to TCU missing three chip shot field goals and dropping a wide open TD pass. It was as much as a gift win as you'll ever see.

Then, Utah caught the perfect storm against an unmotivated Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl, and to their credit, they took full advantage of it.

However, if you put this team up against a motivated USC, Florida or Texas in a championship scenerio, they wouldn't come close to winning the game.

Winner.

TCU was probably the most underrated team in FCS Division I-A (or whatever they call it) this year.

EDIT: And they still got hammered by Oklahoma.

[Poli]

Agreed.

[Buccaneer]

Even after a couple of days, I still don't see Utah anywhere close to being a top 3, let alone a close 2. I would bet that any of the other teams in the top 10 would have a great chance of going undefeated playing Utah's schedule, adding in being motivated to play an unmotivated Alabama. Texas' one loss >>>> Utah's very lucky win against TCU.

[Young Drachma]

College basketball >>>>>>> College football

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

College basketball >>>>>>> College football

Yes yes, we all can't wait until the season starts in late February.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Yes yes, we all can't wait until the season starts in late February.

Beats having 95% of the teams seasons over in mid-September.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Yes yes, we all can't wait until the season starts in late February.

And what a month it is.

[MylesKnight]

Interesting, this site shows Utah at the #1 spot in the Combined Computer Polls to end the season. This is the first time the team ranked #1 in the Computer Poll did not agree with the final Human Poll in the history of the BCS.

http://www.utah2008champs.com/press-release

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Beats having 95% of the teams seasons over in mid-September.

Tell me how the regular season is important in college basketball when you can win every game the whole season...then lose a game in your conference tourney and not get an invite to the big dance? For many of those smaller conferences this could be the case...so why play any regular season games, just play the tournament and be done with it.

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by MylesKnight

Interesting, this site shows Utah at the #1 spot in the Combined Computer Polls to end the season. This is the first time the team ranked #1 in the Computer Poll did not agree with the final Human Poll in the history of the BCS.

http://www.utah2008champs.com/press-release

The computers are too emotional and not objective enough... we should just let people vote who have no bias, like coaches and ex-players

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Tell me how the regular season is important in college basketball when you can win every game the whole season...then lose a game in your conference tourney and not get an invite to the big dance? For many of those smaller conferences this could be the case...so why play any regular season games, just play the tournament and be done with it.

Those teams get automatic bids to the NIT. Still post-season play. And it doesn't happen that often that a team runs the table, loses 1 game and doesn't make the Big Dance.

If St. Joseph's from a few years ago was a football team, people would've derided them as a team that didn't play in a strong enough conference and how much they sucked?

Instead? They made it to the Elite 8.

NCAA tournament still favors the big conferences, but lets conferences like the Missouri Valley prove themselves against the big boys when it counts.

I'll take a George Mason in the Final Four over Boise State's meaningless Fiesta Bowl victory anyday. Or Utah going undefeated and not having it matter at all, other than fans of that school

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Those teams get automatic bids to the NIT. Still post-season play. And it doesn't happen that often that a team runs the table, loses 1 game and doesn't make the Big Dance.

You mean like a meaning-less bowl game?

My argument about running the table is a bit absurd, I know. But there are quite a few times where teams with a .500 record win their conference tourney and knock out a deserving team. I love the NCAA tournament for its excitement but I think it really de-values the regular season.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Some interesting numbers in the just-released TV ratings. Alamo Bowl ends up 2nd in TV ratings, while the Orange Bowl is way down the list along with the Cotton Bowl.

1. BCS Title Game, 22.1
2. Alamo Bowl, 16.0
3. Fiesta Bowl, 15.9
4. Rose Bowl, 12.0
5. Gator Bowl, 10.6
6. Sugar Bowl, 9.9
7. Orange Bowl, 8.6
8. Holiday Bowl, 7.4
9. Insight Bowl, 6.8
10. Cotton Bowl, 6.0
11. Capital 1 Bowl, 4.2
12. Emerald Bowl, 3.8
13. Poinsettia Bowl, 3.2
13. Sun Bowl, 3.2
15. Champ Sports Bowl, 3.0

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Some interesting numbers in the just-released TV ratings. Alamo Bowl ends up 2nd in TV ratings, while the Orange Bowl is way down the list along with the Cotton Bowl.

The BCS title game's ratings were up considerably, though. People can bitch about the BCS as much as they want, but as long as it pulls in ratings its not going anywhere.

EDIT: Actually, ratings for the Fiesta, Orange, Rose, and Sugar bowls were up from last year if those numbers are correct.

[MylesKnight]

Deseret News: MTN. Sports Network comes back to bite MWC.

[MylesKnight]

Dola.

The Alamo Bowl was played on a Monday (December 29th) Evening, between Missouri and Northwestern. What's the deal with the high rating? Folks having Monday Night Football withdrawl?

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by MylesKnight

Interesting, this site shows Utah at the #1 spot in the Combined Computer Polls to end the season. This is the first time the team ranked #1 in the Computer Poll did not agree with the final Human Poll in the history of the BCS.

http://www.utah2008champs.com/press-release

The computer polls as they're utilized now are pretty worthless, according to Jeff Sagarin. When they took out margin of victory, they neutered the algorithm's ability to assess the actual strength of the teams, and hence that's why you'll sometimes see the absurdity of a I-AA team ranked in the top 10.

In the Sagarin Predictor Ratings (that used to be used by the BCS), Utah is 10th.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Some interesting numbers in the just-released TV ratings. Alamo Bowl ends up 2nd in TV ratings, while the Orange Bowl is way down the list along with the Cotton Bowl.

That Alamo Bowl rating looks like either a misprint or a local Missouri market number.

The national overnights had the game doing quite well, well above it's usual (and was notable because of that) with a 4.6 household rating.
Here's one linked story of several that are out there.
Alamo Bowl continues to draw in national audiences - San Antonio Business Journal:

[Butter]

I was thinking that too... no way the Missouri/Northwestern Alamo Bowl outdrew Ohio State-Texas nationally.

[Grammaticus]

No surprise on the cotton bowl. It was played on a Friday at 2pm. It was a work day after new years day. The ratings were low because a lot of people were at work. It was a stupid time to play the game.

[Dr. Sak]

You forgot to add in the fudge factor that MBBF uses when talking about Missouri related games.

[CU Tiger]

I'm shocked that a Clemson Nebaska Gator Bowl was #5...

And a New Years Eve LSU GT battle not in the top 15?
Must not count bars and restaraunts

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

I'm shocked that a Clemson Nebaska Gator Bowl was #5...

And a New Years Eve LSU GT battle not in the top 15?
Must not count bars and restaraunts

NCAA College Football Rose, Cotton, Sugar, Fiesta, BCS Championship Bowl Nielsen TV Ratings, 2008-9

Very bad year for most of the BCS bowls (could be the beginning of the end for the extra fifth game model, it's really hurt their numbers) better numbers for some of the secondary bowls.

GT vs LSU was 14th in total viewers by my count, a little better than the Poinsettia & a little worse than the Meineke Car Care.

But anything had to be better than the Texas Bowl. I think the live attendance was about 50k, the TV audience was only 186,000, less than 1/4 what even the Insight Bowl managed to draw on the same NFL Network. To put how bad having a deal with NFLN is into some perspective, the 730,000 who watched Minnesota & Northwestern was the second lowest figure, next in line from the bottom was 1.11 million for the Southern Miss-Troy New Orleans Bowl

[cartman]

So, are we going to hear from MBBF where he got his numbers?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

But anything had to be better than the Texas Bowl. I think the live attendance was about 50k, the TV audience was only 186,000, less than 1/4 what even the Insight Bowl managed to draw on the same NFL Network. To put how bad having a deal with NFLN is into some perspective, the 730,000 who watched Minnesota & Northwestern was the second lowest figure, next in line from the bottom was 1.11 million for the Southern Miss-Troy New Orleans Bowl

That's Kansas-Minnesota- thank you very much

SI

[Eaglesfan27]

Graham Harrell has looked bad tonight in the Senior Bowl. Pat White has had some nice moments, I hope he manages to convince a team to give him a real shot at QB.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Pat White has had some nice moments, I hope he manages to convince a team to give him a real shot at QB.

Based on his practices this week:

One of the analysts for NFL.com (can't remember the name) said he should be a 2nd round pick as a QB/Athlete. Basically said he doesn't see him as a starter at QB in the NFL, but would definitely be a solid backup and provide a lot of versatility for a creative OC.

Mel Kiper has moved him up to his 5th rated qb in this draft class and has him as a late 2nd-3rd round pick. Said he's been impressive.

Todd McShay must be blind because he's been ripping him most of the week at the senior bowl while everything else I've seen has been positive.