WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[st.cronin]

Geez, if the Teacher's pet doesn't know their role, than I think we have been making a mistake being so forthcoming with our scans.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I'm tired of Lathum getting all the attention

welcome to day 2!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Geez, if the Teacher's pet doesn't know their role, than I think we have been making a mistake being so forthcoming with our scans.

maybe I am being thick, but what good would it possibly do us to hold back the info from our scans?

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by RendeR

is there anyone who has not been scanned at all? I can certainly help get a duplicate scan in on them with you if there are any. I'm tired of Lathum getting all the attention

I don't think anyone has scanned me yet, but I'm a student so there really isn't any reason to

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I really don't get the no-lynch phenomenon. If we're playing using normal werewolf strategy, we need lynches as data points. If we're playing using scan data, we need lynches to tell us which scanners are more accurate.

Well with Path clarifying that neither the Teacher's Pet nor the Class Clown know their true roles I'm more inclined to vote no lynch so we don't eliminate a very useful role at this point. I think we should try and at least get one more day of data points either as a group or as individuals IMO

[path12]

Current vote total as of post #747:

nfg22 2 -- Pumpy Tudors(598), Bsak16(628)
No Lynch 2 -- mauboy1(733), The Jackal(736)
Lathum 1 -- Dodgerchick(601)
Chief Rum 1 -- Passacaglia(636)
RendeR 1 -- st.cronin(707)
Dodgerchick 1 -- Lathum(725)
Passacaglia 1 -- ntndeacon(738)

No vote: claphamsa, Barkeep49, RendeR, Chief Rum, saldana, SnDvls, nfg22, MikeVic, oliegirl, Mr. Wednesday, jeheinz72

[MikeVic]

I don't know if I'll be on here much before the first deadline, but I'll try to check in to see if I should change my vote. Right now I'll be voting for NFG because he tickles me incorrectly. I will also send in a scan for Lathum for my curiosity. I will be back before the second deadline, so that can change.

VOTE NFG

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

maybe I am being thick, but what good would it possibly do us to hold back the info from our scans?

If everybody has been honest with their scans, then we've been drawing a road map to the teacher's pet for the wolves (since they know which scans are accurate, and which aren't).

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

If you have sex with a wolf, does that make you a wolf too?

I think it just makes you a wolf fu(ker

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

If everybody has been honest with their scans, then we've been drawing a road map to the teacher's pet for the wolves (since they know which scans are accurate, and which aren't).

but without that information out there we are in the dark

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

but without that information out there we are in the dark

Only if we keep no-lynching.

[SnDvls]

Vote No Lynch

Unless a very compelling argument beyond what has been discussed today comes up there is where my vote will stay.

IMO, we can get away with one more day of scans and data points and still be okay in this game.

[Barkeep49]

See this is why I hate no lynching on Day 1. Because then on Day 2, people STILL think it's a good idea. And if you follow the D1 argument's they're right. But sooner, rather than later, we need to break out of passive mode and start lynching people.

[jeheinz72]

I'm against no lynching. We need data points, IMO, like someone (olie? BK?) said. She's acted strange in a lot of instance, don't know if it was frustration or what, but I'm willing to take that chance.

Vote Dodgerchick

With that said, I'm going to make my own scan-sheet (since I can't follow other peoples' very well).

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

See this is why I hate no lynching on Day 1. Because then on Day 2, people STILL think it's a good idea. And if you follow the D1 argument's they're right. But sooner, rather than later, we need to break out of passive mode and start lynching people.

So, ya gonna vote then?

[The Jackal]

I still see some merit to the no lynch in this particular game, but I think if the majority of people think it's better to vote then someone is going to get lynched today. There are three of us on no lynch right now, and I don't think anyone else has expressed a strong desire to do so.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

So, ya gonna vote then?

Yes I am. Just trying were best to place my vote.

At the moment I'm leaning towards Lathum. A whole bunch of people learn about the accuracy, or inaccuracy of their scan (including me, as I'm quite curious about that). Further, his willingness to think that I'm good based on the scans on me is troubling to me. It isn't any more natural for the scans to all be correct (as they are) or in correct (which they're not). Yet he thinks they're correct. A wolf would know this. Generally speaking when I'm a wolf I like to say nice things about others since it engenders some goodwill towards me. So since Lathum said something nice about me, seemingly without good cause, I'm now more suspicious of him.

I'm also weary of cronin, who seems to think we should hiding our info.

I don't like SnDvls, who has played in enough games on FOFC to know better, voting No Lynch Day 2.

I think NFG's whole game has been to draw attention to himself, though to what ends I'm not sure and he seems to have toned this down today.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Yes I am. Just trying were best to place my vote.

At the moment I'm leaning towards Lathum. A whole bunch of people learn about the accuracy, or inaccuracy of their scan (including me, as I'm quite curious about that). Further, his willingness to think that I'm good based on the scans on me is troubling to me. It isn't any more natural for the scans to all be correct (as they are) or in correct (which they're not). Yet he thinks they're correct. A wolf would know this. Generally speaking when I'm a wolf I like to say nice things about others since it engenders some goodwill towards me. So since Lathum said something nice about me, seemingly without good cause, I'm now more suspicious of him.

I'm also weary of cronin, who seems to think we should hiding our info.

I don't like SnDvls, who has played in enough games on FOFC to know better, voting No Lynch Day 2.

I think NFG's whole game has been to draw attention to himself, though to what ends I'm not sure and he seems to have toned this down today.

What are the scans on you BK? 4 "students"?

[claphamsa]

I think we shuld all keep scanning and posting our scanns. and eventually we wil be able to tell somethign from it!

vote nfg33

i might change it later...

[st.cronin]

3-2 nfg over DC now, with no lynch also at 3. Still plenty of time to deadline. Thinking about this, I'd rather vote for somebody like Lathum or BK or Pass than either of those two, as it will help neutralize the wolves advantage in finding the teacher's pet. I'll go with Pass, since he was pinging my radar yesterday. This will give Pass 2 votes, making it nfg and no lynch 3 apiece, and DC and Pass 2 each.

UNVOTE RENDER
VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

What are the scans on you BK? 4 "students"?

The Jackal, saldana, DC, and SnDvls are scanned me as a villager.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I think we shuld all keep scanning and posting our scanns. and eventually we wil be able to tell somethign from it!

vote nfg33

i might change it later...

I have to ask: Why do you vote in navy rather than blue?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Geez, if the Teacher's pet doesn't know their role, than I think we have been making a mistake being so forthcoming with our scans.

The more I think about it, the more this rankles me.

Cronin are you REALLY suggesting we should just keep our info to ourselves and if we die take it down with us? You really don't think that through multiple scans we can gather an accurate aggregate picture of not only how accurate individuals are, but also which sides players are on?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The Jackal, saldana, DC, and SnDvls are scanned me as a villager.

While I'd say your right, I guess the way I'd look at that is that you're much much LESS likely to be a wolf than our other people. I mean let's say we're all, on average, a 1/3rd correct Seer. So 2/3rds of the time we're wrong. With 4 scans of a 1/3rd seer, it's less than 20% chance you're a bad guy.

Sure, if I was voting for good-guys maybe that isn't enough, but I look at it right now as you'd be in the pile of "People I don't need to worry a ton about"

KnowwhatI'msayin'?

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I have to ask: Why do you vote in navy rather than blue?

color blind.....

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The more I think about it, the more this rankles me.

Cronin are you REALLY suggesting we should just keep our info to ourselves and if we die take it down with us? You really don't think that through multiple scans we can gather an accurate aggregate picture of not only how accurate individuals are, but also which sides players are on?

The problem is that the wolves already have the correct information - so they will simply target the more accurate scanners each night, before we know who they are. Am I wrong about that? And if I'm not wrong, how do we counter that?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

While I'd say your right, I guess the way I'd look at that is that you're much much LESS likely to be a wolf than our other people. I mean let's say we're all, on average, a 1/3rd correct Seer. So 2/3rds of the time we're wrong. With 4 scans of a 1/3rd seer, it's less than 20% chance you're a bad guy.

Sure, if I was voting for good-guys maybe that isn't enough, but I look at it right now as you'd be in the pile of "People I don't need to worry a ton about"

KnowwhatI'msayin'?

Not really. Why assume 66% accuracy? Seems to me we should be assuming 50% accuracy (well actually 52.5%%). With those odds, it's only 1/16 that 4 people scanning me would all get the same result. But it's just as likely to be 1/16 getting it right, as it is getting it wrong.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Not really. Why assume 66% accuracy? Seems to me we should be assuming 50% accuracy (well actually 52.5%%). With those odds, it's only 1/16 that 4 people scanning me would all get the same result. But it's just as likely to be 1/16 getting it right, as it is getting it wrong.

Actually I was assuming even less than that, 33% accuracy (to play it safe with the numbers)

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The problem is that the wolves already have the correct information - so they will simply target the more accurate scanners each night, before we know who they are. Am I wrong about that? And if I'm not wrong, how do we counter that?

So what if the wolves figure out who is more accurate. The wolves would have to take out the people who are both incredibly accurate AND inaccurate. And later on in the game that itself could give us info about who else might be accurate or not.

You've stated the advantage that the wolves gain. I get it. What's the advantage to the villagers by staying quiet? I think going public has its clear advantages and we shouldn't not do something just because it helps the other side. We should do what makes the most sense for the villagers. And in this game, like nearly all others, that means sharing info.

I hate to have to get on that high horse again, and was quite thankful when it seemed like people had finally seen the common sense of that in this game at least.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Actually I was assuming even less than that, 33% accuracy (to play it safe with the numbers)

Why assume 1/3 accuracy? It's a bad assumption. But rolling with that 1/3 accuracy rate, assumption they're all going to get me wrong 1/5, if I were a wolf. That's not an insignificant error rate.

[st.cronin]

The advantage the village has to staying quiet: potentially the teacher's pet and class clown live an extra day or more. Hypothetically, if we lose one tonight and one tomorrow night, we are pretty much fucked. Am I wrong?

[The Jackal]

Ok, I'm out, if I'm back befofre the deadline I'll certainly re-join the conversation.

And by the way, I noticed someone asked who hadn't been scanned earlier, and I don't think anyone has scanned me yet - so feel free.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Why assume 1/3 accuracy? It's a bad assumption. But rolling with that 1/3 accuracy rate, assumption they're all going to get me wrong 1/5, if I were a wolf. That's not an insignificant error rate.

I'm just saying it's not to be scoffed at. 80% chance of a villager looks pretty good when I'm a big "?" on a LOT of people.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The advantage the village has to staying quiet: potentially the teacher's pet and class clown live an extra day or more. Hypothetically, if we lose one tonight and one tomorrow night, we are pretty much fucked. Am I wrong?

Yes you are. So we lose one today and one tomorrow. I don't see how we lose them both so quickly, as that would have to be some really bad luck, but alright I'll go with it. The average scan accuracy is 52.2%. CR did the distribution chart yesterday and the odds are that we have at least 1 or 2 other well above average players for both accuracy and inaccuracy. Sure it's not perfect, but don't let perfection stand in the way of good enough.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I'm just saying it's not to be scoffed at. 80% chance of a villager looks pretty good when I'm a big "?" on a LOT of people.

Hmm. You're right. The math is in my favor. I just wished I had heard that form Lathum first. I'm still suspicious of his trust in me.

[Lorena]

You guys are hysterical! I was really upset earlier but now it's laughable, it truly is. So the reason why I'm suspicious is because I was "defending" nfg? Puhleez. THINK ABOUT IT: 1 person says I'm a wolf.. 1 person! This same person came out as a wolf scan by 3 people. Lynching me will give you shit for information other than I'm a student. Lynching Lathum will at least give us a little information on how this scan thing works.

I guess since no one is following me on Lathum, I'm going with nfg.. self perservation, obviously.

unvote lathum
vote nfg

[nfg22]

Since I am most likely going dow at this point, I have one request kill Lathum tommorow when I come up clean. As of now I know I am clean. Lathum is getting the masses behind me over two words I said. Whatever, tommorow you will see.

Vote Lathum

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Hmm. You're right. The math is in my favor. I just wished I had heard that form Lathum first. I'm still suspicious of his trust in me.

Lathum is very sneaky like that.

[Barkeep49]

DC, would you rather vote for Lathum? I know I'd rather vote for Lathum than any of the others out there and so I would join you in voting for him if it made you feel better.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Since I am most likely going dow at this point, I have one request kill Lathum tommorow when I come up clean. As of now I know I am clean. Lathum is getting the masses behind me over two words I said. Whatever, tommorow you will see.

Vote Lathum

yes, see post 788

[Barkeep49]

With nfg's vote (and hopefully DC going back) I'm ready to go onto Lathum for reasons previously stated (gain lots of info, suspicious of his trust in me).

Vote Lathum

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Yes you are. So we lose one today and one tomorrow. I don't see how we lose them both so quickly, as that would have to be some really bad luck, but alright I'll go with it. The average scan accuracy is 52.2%. CR did the distribution chart yesterday and the odds are that we have at least 1 or 2 other well above average players for both accuracy and inaccuracy. Sure it's not perfect, but don't let perfection stand in the way of good enough.

My point is if we lose the Teacher's pet four days from now, we get four days of posts and information to go over - even if he hasn't published his scans.

I agree its a difficult spot for the village to be in, but I think the "release all information" is a wolf-helping strategy, not a village-helping strategy. Which has me looking at you quizzically.

[nfg22]

OK. Seriously. I have one scan on me, and from an unreliable source none the less. Lathum has 3 scans saying wolf, which looks good to me. He then convinces all of you, somehow that I am a wolf, so we all jump on that bandwagon. Can someone please layout why I am a wolf?

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

DC, would you rather vote for Lathum? I know I'd rather vote for Lathum than any of the others out there and so I would join you in voting for him if it made you feel better.

If you wanna vote for Lathum, by all means, go ahead. The only reason why I moved off of him and onto nfg was to save my ass.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by nfg22

OK. Seriously. I have one scan on me, and from an unreliable source none the less. Lathum has 3 scans saying wolf, which looks good to me. He then convinces all of you, somehow that I am a wolf, so we all jump on that bandwagon. Can someone please layout why I am a wolf?

cuz you said, "even though".. how's that for proof!!

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

My point is if we lose the Teacher's pet four days from now, we get four days of posts and information to go over - even if he hasn't published his scans.

I agree its a difficult spot for the village to be in, but I think the "release all information" is a wolf-helping strategy, not a village-helping strategy. Which has me looking at you quizzically.

Would you rather have 4 days of posts or 4 days of scans? The wolves would have to get damn lucky to nail the class clown or teacher's pet tonight. Not impossible, but certainly lucky. And when/if the those two roles go down we gain information not only about who they scanned, but also about the accuracy of others who have scanned those players. So they're staying around longer is good. But lots of information is revealed whenever they die and I'd rather not have to play did the did he leave us hints game, when they'd have no idea that they SHOULD be leaving us hints. Let's remove the ambiguity and get good, solid, bankable info. Info that we can use to build a COT.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

If you wanna vote for Lathum, by all means, go ahead. The only reason why I moved off of him and onto nfg was to save my ass.

If you vote Lathum, he'll have 3 votes on him. NFG has 4. You have 1. Hell no lynch has 3 votes at the moment, which is ahead of you. I don't think you're in danger. Instead you should join us in putting the man who slandered you in danger

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Lathum

You can disagree all you want about a day 1 lynch in this game but to say you think day 2 would be a crapshoot with this ruleset is just plain wrong IMO

We barely have any more data today than we had yesterday about who is a wolf. We have started to accumulate data that will help us determine who's accurate and who isn't, and down the road we may want to come back to N1 scan results, but we're barely ahead of where we were yesterday.

That having been said, one way to address that deficiency is to start lynching people. Otherwise, we're relying on the wolves, and they're going to have a 100% villager hit rate.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The wolves would have to get damn lucky to nail the class clown or teacher's pet tonight.

I'd like to hear from one of the statisticians on board. What are the odds, given that the wolves know who the wolves are, that they could get to the teacher's pet tonight? My instinct says its quite high ... but I guess I don't know, and I don't know how to do the math.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

If you vote Lathum, he'll have 3 votes on him. NFG has 4. You have 1. Hell no lynch has 3 votes at the moment, which is ahead of you. I don't think you're in danger. Instead you should join us in putting the man who slandered you in danger

yeah sure

unvote nfg
vote lathum