11-18-2005, 07:38 PM | #751 |
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With everyone else being human on your scorecard?
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11-18-2005, 07:39 PM | #752 |
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So I say RPI is a human and now you want to tell me that if we kill him and he's a human that makes me even guiltier? It looks like you're not going to be killed today dubb, so you can stop trying to make your outragous claims.
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11-18-2005, 07:41 PM | #753 | |
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I could see that. Maybe. Implicating me, well, I don't know what to say. I'm a villager. I understand you're just 1. trying to save your neck and 2. making suggestions, but I'm clean. Like I said, I'd stake hattrick supporter on it. In essence, I'd be offering 20 bucks on my safe knowledge of me being a villager. As I've explained in other games, I'm not willing to lose 20 bucks over this game. I'm telling the truth.
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11-18-2005, 07:42 PM | #754 |
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The whole cunning wolf thing throws me off. I can't understand why the wolves didn't go cunning the first night, when they were most likely to be witnessed.
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11-18-2005, 07:44 PM | #755 | |
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They cant afford to lose the cunning wolf just to get the witness...if i were them, save it until a later vote when the seer has to come out to get you, you show up as a villager and the other wolf eats the seer....after that the villagers are doomed....but if your a wolf, dont do that...tell me know
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11-18-2005, 07:44 PM | #756 |
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I don't understand why they didn't go cunning every night, I see a bunch of upside and little downside. Maybe trying to save it for later in the game, so we would doubt the seer?
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11-18-2005, 07:45 PM | #757 |
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The guys I trust the most are split across three different people - perfect
I'm curious, I've seen the self-preservation play invoked a couple of different times now by people who claim to be villagers. What do people think is the right play if you know that you are an ordinary villager and you are not convinced that the person you are hanging with your switch is a wolf? Is there some point where it might make sense to say "yes, we lose a villager and I'm out of the game, but the seer and the lovers are still alive". I haven't been in this position, but I've been wondering about this as I tried to work through McSweeny scenarios earlier today. It doesn't seem like there is much value having the vote on McSweeny at this point as he is lagging behind on the votes. I'm going to make the move that I feel is the most likely to grab a wolf which is to UNVOTE MCSWEENY VOTE DUBB93 There is some suspicion that Dubb has been spotted, and he finds himself in a toe-to-toe with King. Lots of heat being generated around him at this point, enough that I think this is our best option with the given information. Dubb, I can meet you halfway on your last post, but at some point if you are weighing between two theories that appear to have equal merit then go with the simplest. Barkeep and RPI slow-rolling you would be pretty damn subtle - not impossible, but less likely than you are a wolf that has had the heat turned up on him in a manner similar to SnDvls yesterday (minus the monster bandwagon). |
11-18-2005, 07:47 PM | #758 | ||||
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The cunning wolf was most likely designated by Neon before the game started. And when he is lynched he will show up as a regular villager, not a wolf. Quote:
If that were true, that would make everyone else clean by my scorecard. I wouldn't mind some discussion on it real quick if possible. Quote:
I didn't really have a chance to analyze it at the time as the bandwagon was on. But you said: 1. After RPI implied you were the seer. 2. In a way to imply you were the seer. 3. You never out right denied being the seer. Just said you wanted to be clear your not implying you are, but like #2, you went on to imply you were. 4. You influenced St. Cronin, on the belief you were the seer. Something I know isn't true. I'm not the seer, but if you were, you would have already scanned and cleared me.
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11-18-2005, 07:48 PM | #759 |
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Hoops,
Can you explain why you think dubb is a wolf over kingfc? I'd like to know you're thoughts on both of them if we have time. I'm willing to change my vote, though I'd need solid convincing.
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11-18-2005, 07:49 PM | #760 |
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I want to reiterate a few points.
1. I am not the seer and thus have only the insight of my gut and what I've collected in evidence 2. Dubb's actions fit that of an effective werewolf type: A. He's not hiding in the shadows B. He's trying to "help" the team by doing grunt research the net result of which is nothing C. He was willing to protect a werewolf well past the point most others had realized the truth 3. Time and time again he has made contradictory statements. Several people consider him a top notch player, but he's surely floundered around this game If you vote for Dubb do it because of his posts and actions not because of me. |
11-18-2005, 07:49 PM | #761 |
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Potential dola,
Who do you trust?
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11-18-2005, 07:49 PM | #762 |
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Well this might throw a wrench into things, but
UNVOTE MCSWEENY VOTE RPI-FAN
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11-18-2005, 07:50 PM | #763 |
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Good lord, what's the tally now?
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11-18-2005, 07:50 PM | #764 |
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Dubb I hope my latest post is explict enough for you.
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11-18-2005, 07:51 PM | #765 |
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I've got much less info to work with on Kingfc - he has been quiet for spurts in this game, but vocal when called out by Dubb.
Honestly, King would be about 4th on my list right now behind Dubb, RPI, and McSweeny. Obviously subject to change ... was really expecting some late-day revelations (real or invented) that would make this a little easier on all of us. If Dubb is in fact a villager then we have a growing list of suspects emerging for tomorrow. But I think that is going to be true no matter which person ends up lynched. |
11-18-2005, 07:51 PM | #766 | |
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11-18-2005, 07:51 PM | #767 |
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as odd as this sounds, the birthday check dubb did on flounders makes me thinks hes legit...who else would care that much whos viewing the thread if they werent a villager
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Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
11-18-2005, 07:52 PM | #768 |
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And we have a guest viewing - hmmm, what are chances that is a wolf on another computer?
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11-18-2005, 07:52 PM | #769 | |
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Anyone got the vote tally?
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11-18-2005, 07:53 PM | #770 |
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Estimated current count
kingfc22 - dubb93, Mr. Wednesday, ardent enthusiast, RPI-Fan dubb93 - Barkeep, st. cronin, hoopsguy RPI-Fan - kingfc22, Raiders Army, McSweeny, Blade6119
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Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you) |
11-18-2005, 07:54 PM | #771 | ||
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My interpreation, was it isn't used on an attack. Just when lynched. Thus, even if the cunning wolf was the one witness, he would still be witness. Only when he was lynched we would show up as a villager. That was how I took it.
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11-18-2005, 07:55 PM | #772 | |
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Who do we know wasn't around the first night? The fact that the wolves didn't have this person carry out the attacks despite the advantages of doing so suggests that perhaps the wolf was unavailable to send in the vote. I don't remember offhand and would have to look, but perhaps people with sharper memories might recall. |
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11-18-2005, 07:56 PM | #773 | |
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That last post wasn't good. I've never seen so many typos in a single post.
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11-18-2005, 07:56 PM | #774 |
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Yes, but bear with me here -- if the cunning wolf carries out the attack and is witnessed, he can attempt to cast doubt on the witness by accusing someone else, then we either lynch the witness (good for the wolves), or upon lynching the cunning wolf, we now doubt the veracity of the cunning wolf and possibly another player as well. The witness will recognize the cunning wolf as a wolf, but we will not be sure the witness was correct after the lynching.
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11-18-2005, 07:57 PM | #775 | |
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11-18-2005, 07:57 PM | #776 |
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The witness aspect of the cunning wolf is out the window, but the "cast doubt on the seer" bit that I mentioned above is still in play.
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11-18-2005, 07:57 PM | #777 | |
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Why are we debating the witness...that ship has sailed
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Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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11-18-2005, 07:57 PM | #778 |
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AE, you asked about trust. Not much today has altered what I had earlier although I suspect that we'll see some results post-deadline that will make this obsolete pretty quickly.
1.) St Cronin - very close to complete trust due to villager role 2.) Mr W - replacement player, very little in posts that has set off 'spider sense' 3.) Blade - feel like he is playing a good pro-villager game Following St. Cronin's vote felt like a decent compass in the event that I didn't have a decent sense of where to go. But ultimately I went with Dubb and felt, at least a little bit, reassured when I saw that I was on the same person as StC. |
11-18-2005, 07:58 PM | #779 | |
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That is an excellent thought. I assume that the cunning wolf KNOWS he is the cunning wolf - I believe the rules are silent on the issue, but it's possible only Neo knows which wolf is cunning. Otherwise, yeah, it makes no sense for the wolves not to use the cunning wolf each and every night. |
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11-18-2005, 07:58 PM | #780 | |
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11-18-2005, 07:59 PM | #781 |
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kingfc22 vs. dubb, and I just don't have a good read on whether I should switch up or not.
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11-18-2005, 07:59 PM | #782 | |
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11-18-2005, 08:00 PM | #783 |
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Very much so. I take a certain amount of solace in knowing that I instigated a bit of vote trading, even if my vote for kingfc22 turns out to be wrong.
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11-18-2005, 08:01 PM | #784 |
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If there is a cunning werewolf in the game he knows it. For both blessed and cursed it makes it clear that they do not know their role until attacked. The lack of a similar statement for the cunning role leads me to believe the wolf will know it is him.
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11-18-2005, 08:03 PM | #785 | |
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11-18-2005, 08:03 PM | #786 |
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With as close as today's vote was (speaking without knowing the results, so please don't take this the wrong way) it is too bad that Sack Attack was unable to participate. Every person had a huge impact in today's results, which is pretty rare in this game.
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11-18-2005, 08:06 PM | #787 | |
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11-18-2005, 08:08 PM | #788 | |
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I am still at least a little bit suspicious of him. I suspect that if he is a wolf, he is the cunning wolf ... |
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11-18-2005, 08:08 PM | #789 |
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And now we wait for Neon to get back... I'll try to check in later.
I'd like for tomorrow to be an off day, as ND has a home football game so I'll be out of commission for basically all morning and all afternoon, possibly not getting home until 8 pm or later. If there is action, I'll try to get in a vote, but I will not be around until late to explain it and/or defend myself.
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11-18-2005, 08:09 PM | #790 |
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I would love to get in 1 day over the weekend. Will Tuesday 8 PM or Wedneday 8 PM be our last vote until after Thanksgiving?
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11-18-2005, 08:10 PM | #791 |
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We are sooo not having a day off becuase Notre Dame is playing...sweet jesus no...especially not for them
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11-18-2005, 08:12 PM | #792 |
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Voting is over, right?
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11-18-2005, 08:12 PM | #793 | |
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yes...im still lost on the tie thing but someone is dead
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Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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11-18-2005, 08:13 PM | #794 |
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I suspect it is, so which of the two will actually be hung?
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11-18-2005, 08:13 PM | #795 |
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I think the most likely scenario is that RPI-Fan is clear. My reason for thinking so:
* Railroading Passacaglia is too bold of a play for a wolf. I especially don't like it for the cunning wolf, as the cunning attribute gives the wolves a shot at discrediting either the witness or the seer. * He's not a great night 1 target for the wolves. Having just railroaded Passacaglia, he may work out to be a valuable player to leave alive -- one sowing confusion and misguided attacks. A safer target is someone like hoopsguy or Raiders Army, someone respected as an analyst and potentially dangerous as an opponent. I think my second reason is weaker than the first (leaving cursed as a more viable possibility), mainly because the wolves have a tendency to not kill off the guy that I would choose to kill off if I were a wolf.
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11-18-2005, 08:15 PM | #796 | |
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11-18-2005, 08:15 PM | #797 |
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Double dola, if I counted right, kingfc22 was the lynchee outright.
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11-18-2005, 08:16 PM | #798 |
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It is always comforting to know that my fellow players would kill me on night 1 if given the chance.
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11-18-2005, 08:19 PM | #799 |
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It's a compliment.
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11-18-2005, 08:22 PM | #800 |
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Did anyone find the voting activity stuff I posted last night mildly interesting or a factor in their thought process today? It takes quite awhile to collect that stuff and I'm not necessarily inclined to continue using it if people don't consider it useful.
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