The Biden Presidency - 2020

[GrantDawg]

I would absolutely consider a viable Democratic alternative to Biden. RFK, Jr. nor Bernie are, because they are not Democrats.

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[cuervo72]

Nor is Williamson viable.

[PilotMan]

Where is our Zelenskyy?


Where is the outsider, who can articulate his words clearly, has a sense of humor, and understands the true gravity of the situation and what will happen if Rs take control of the government for another 4 years (or 8)?

[RainMaker]

Mark Kelly is the strongest candidate they could run but they never would.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Where is our Zelenskyy?


Where is the outsider, who can articulate his words clearly, has a sense of humor, and understands the true gravity of the situation and what will happen if Rs take control of the government for another 4 years (or 8)?

Jon Stewart.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Jon Stewart.

I agree, but I don't see him ever running.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Mark Kelly is the strongest candidate they could run but they never would.

I would run to the polls to vote for Mark Kelly. But I don't how much of it is "they" and how much of it is he isn't willing to go against an incumbent. That makes anybodies run an uphill battle. As good as a candidate as he seems. I don't know if he has the stomach for it.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I would run to the polls to vote for Mark Kelly. But I don't how much of it is "they" and how much of it is he isn't willing to go against an incumbent. That makes anybodies run an uphill battle. As good as a candidate as he seems. I don't know if he has the stomach for it.

True. The abuse his wife would take is unfathomable.

But I still don't think the Democratic establihsment would be fond of him. Even if you don't want him as President, he should be a guy at the front of the party. But that's still the job of lifelong pols who do nothing like Durbin, Schumer, Pelosi, etc.

[JPhillips]

JB Pritzker

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Where is our Zelenskyy?


Where is the outsider, who can articulate his words clearly, has a sense of humor, and understands the true gravity of the situation and what will happen if Rs take control of the government for another 4 years (or 8)?

The closest was Al Franken and well, he had to resign because he didn't actually rape someone like Trump.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

True. The abuse his wife would take is unfathomable.

But I still don't think the Democratic establihsment would be fond of him. Even if you don't want him as President, he should be a guy at the front of the party. But that's still the job of lifelong pols who do nothing like Durbin, Schumer, Pelosi, etc.

You are absolutely not wrong about how badly Democratic leadership needs new faces. Unfortunately it is all about connections and egos. At least Pelosi finally stepped down, but there are probably 10 senators that would be a better face of the party than Schumer, and Kelly is one of them.

[Lathum]

I would also vote kelly. And for sure Stewart.

[JPhillips]

Make America Florida? Are you fucking kidding me?

[Lathum]

Worst slogan ever.

[albionmoonlight]

On the one hand, the markets aren't freaking out about the debt limit, and you think that Wall St. has ears on the Hill and would be freaking out if things looked that dire.

On the other hand, this feels kind of January 6th-like. All the signs are there that something horrible is going to happen, including the people in charge saying openly what they intend to do (prevent the peaceful transition of power, refuse to raise the debt ceiling), and our complacent sense of "Well, they'd never really do that" is blinding us to the reality of what is going to happen.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Worst slogan ever.

True dat. It makes sound like Florida is superior to every other state. And anyone with any bit of state pride is likely to offended. And you know Americans love being offended these days.

[albionmoonlight]

Yeah, and the "Florida man" thing is a thing even outside of politics.

[molson]

I'm definitely curious what conservative Idahoans and Texans think of that slogan. From what I've seen (at least being around the former), they mock Florida just like everyone else.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

On the one hand, the markets aren't freaking out about the debt limit, and you think that Wall St. has ears on the Hill and would be freaking out if things looked that dire.

On the other hand, this feels kind of January 6th-like. All the signs are there that something horrible is going to happen, including the people in charge saying openly what they intend to do (prevent the peaceful transition of power, refuse to raise the debt ceiling), and our complacent sense of "Well, they'd never really do that" is blinding us to the reality of what is going to happen.

I'm fairly certain there's a sizeable portion of the House GOP that wants to see a default.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

True dat. It makes sound like Florida is superior to every other state. And anyone with any bit of state pride is likely to offended. And you know Americans love being offended these days.

especially conservatives.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I'm fairly certain there's a sizeable portion of the House GOP that wants to see a default.

Been saying it almost daily. I am 100% of the opinion they will default to make Biden look bad in hopes of winning next year.

Just like Trump said if he loses the election was stolen, and when he lost that idea was deeply implanted already. The GOP is saying a default is Bidens fault. The seed is already planted.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Make America Florida? Are you fucking kidding me?

A big part of this - as we've seen with the KY GOP governor race - is going to be a retelling of the Covid period as one big conservative success/liberal failure. They are going to synthesize 3+ years' worth of ups and downs into a simple "we kept the state open and were right all along" despite the data showing otherwise (especially early on) and despite the open hostility toward vaccines, which have a lot to do with where we are now. Bank on it.

[JPhillips]

Yeah, I just don't think any persuadable voter is going to be swayed by anything covid related in 2024. The people that care about that are already locked into their party.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Been saying it almost daily. I am 100% of the opinion they will default to make Biden look bad in hopes of winning next year.

Just like Trump said if he loses the election was stolen, and when he lost that idea was deeply implanted already. The GOP is saying a default is Bidens fault. The seed is already planted.

Matt Gaetz openly said he wants no deal.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Matt Gaetz openly said he wants no deal.

This guy has the most punchable face in congress, got to where he is on Daddy's money and privilege, shady character, morally bankrupt and all in on blowing up anything he can to own the libs, screw the fact that one of the hardest hit states will be Florida.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Yeah, I just don't think any persuadable voter is going to be swayed by anything covid related in 2024. The people that care about that are already locked into their party.

NBC is reporting from Miami this week; one of their stories was the population increase in FL and the reasons for it. Some said taxes, some weather. At least one ex-New Yorker cited Florida's opening things up post-COVID. (Young, professional A-A mom with a toddler.)

[JPhillips]

I think some, although a small, number will see that as a reason to vote R, I just don't think they are at this point persuadable. Maybe it matters to get them to turn out, but I just don't think 2024 is going to be decided by persuading voters regarding covid.

[Ksyrup]

Maybe they are counting on it helping with turnout. But I can guarantee you that between Covid restrictions and vaccine mandates, they are looking forward to holding Biden "accountable" for everything Covid-related that they couldn't blame him for pre-2021.

Covid and woke are at the heart of Make America Florida, if that is really where he's going with his campaign theme.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Maybe they are counting on it helping with turnout. But I can guarantee you that between Covid restrictions and vaccine mandates, they are looking forward to holding Biden "accountable" for everything Covid-related that they couldn't blame him for pre-2021.

Covid and woke are at the heart of Make America Florida, if that is really where he's going with his campaign theme.

It's going to rally the far right, but I don't think plays well outside the GOP base. This really seems like something to court Trump voters more than an attempt to win a general election.

None of it matters if he doesn't start going directly at Trump though. Trump serves shit up on a platter to attack him with and no one on the GOP side seems to have the ball to go at him directly.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Atocep

It's going to rally the far right, but I don't think plays well outside the GOP base. This really seems like something to court Trump voters more than an attempt to win a general election.

None of it matters if he doesn't start going directly at Trump though. Trump serves shit up on a platter to attack him with and no one on the GOP side seems to have the ball to go at him directly.

The only plan any of these bozo's have on dealing with Trump that I can see is that they are betting seeing him in court and/or him getting convicted of a felony might allow them to overtake him. I wouldn't put money on it working, but they refuse to go after him knowing that his base will never forgive them if they do.

[Lathum]

You aren’t winning trumps base regardless. They will either stay home out of spite or still vote for him.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Lathum

You aren’t winning trumps base regardless. They will either stay home out of spite or still vote for him.

Exactly what I think, but that is obviously not their thoughts. If they didn't think there was at least a chance he will falter, then why bother?

[Ksyrup]

Well, someone's got to replace Carlson. That's one reason to jump in the fray.

[Edward64]

A nice article that sums up the debt ceiling positions.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/25/debt...re-making.html

Relatively easy ones

Energy and mining permitting reform ... The talks could get dicey over the question of what kinds of permits to prioritize: Republicans want fossil fuels, while many Democrats believe renewable energy should top the list.

If fossil fuel means primarily oil & gas, I'm onboard. Still need to buy more time as we transition. If it means coal, probably not unless we need to get Manchin's vote to pass the compromise.

Rescind unused COVID-19 funds ... estimates that about $30 billion of that money has not been earmarked and could be clawed back

Same thing that happens to budgets in commercial companies. Use it or lose it.

Trickier ones

New work requirements for Medicaid ... require able bodied adults with no children to work or train for work in order to stay on Medicaid

Article says this is a Biden sticking point. I don't get it. Able bodied, no children seems like a good filter.

Changes to current work requirements for food stamps: Unlike the Medicaid demands, it appears there could be some room for compromise on GOP proposals to raise the work retirement age window for people enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), from 50 to 55 years old.

This, not above, is what I'd think Joe would have most heartburn on (article says he has less). Unlike above, no filter on able bodied, no children.

The biggest one

A federal budget baseline number in 2024 that is lower than it was in 2023: This is the biggest sticking point in the whole process, and the issue over which the talks have broken down temporarily a few times.

McCarthy wants 2024 baseline spending to be rolled back to its 2022 level. Yet he also insists that defense spending — which makes up more than 30% of the total — be insulated from any cuts. This means everything else would need to be slashed even further to get the overall number back to 2022 levels.

According to the conservative-leaning CATO Institute, exempting the military from a spending rollback would require cutting the rest of government — everything from homeland security to public health to air traffic control — by around 20%.

Other than defense, a 20% across the table cut seems unreasonable. Yeah, this is be THE main sticking point.


Other GOP wants but have "not brought to the table"

Repeal the electric vehicle tax credits at the center of Biden’s renewable energy agenda, which were passed last year in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Against this

Repeal $80 billion in additional funding for the Internal Revenue Service, also part of the IRA.

Transformation is needed but $80B transformation is excessive. There should be room to trim some. I would like to see the detailed plan, and assumptions. My guess is this is not what the numerous transformation/consulting companies came up with under a RFP bid. More like an internal, let's ask for the world knowing we'll only get a part of it.

Overturn Biden’s executive action to forgive approximately $315 billion worth of student loan debt. (The Supreme Court will decide the plan’s fate in the coming weeks).

I'm in favor for repealing unless some additional conditions are put in. But where it stands right now, I agree let SCOTUS decide.

Enact the REINS Act, which would require regulatory agencies like the Federal Trade Commission and the Environmental Protection Agency to get congressional approval before they could issue major rules.

Unsure about this one.

[Ksyrup]

What a bunch of clowns. I'm surprised they didn't just say, "Whatever Trump wants to cut!" That's about the extent of the non-performative roleplaying that passes for a GOP lawmaker these days.

Little-noted this wk: While McCarthy was all budget-cutting bravado in debt-limit talks with Biden, the House Appropriations panel canceled votes on 4 bills that must fill in gory details of the cuts the GOP is demanding. Divided Rs didn't have the votes.https://t.co/Wzdkn9lGUt

— Jackie Calmes (@jackiekcalmes) May 25, 2023

[miked]

Also, a group of "hardliners" just issued more demands for them to bring to the table that include border policy changes and funding, having Yellen send them all of her computation work to "prove" there will be a default, and block FBI hq funding or they would vote no. We just can't keep living with this kind of crazy.

[Lathum]

Time for the 14th amendment

[BYU 14]

You know since 1960 the debt ceiling has been raised 78 times, 49 of those under a GOP admin, but now it's time to fiscally responsible huh?

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Time for the 14th amendment

Mike Lee wants to slow walk the vote in the Senate, too, so probably.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by miked

Also, a group of "hardliners" just issued more demands for them to bring to the table that include border policy changes and funding, having Yellen send them all of her computation work to "prove" there will be a default, and block FBI hq funding or they would vote no. We just can't keep living with this kind of crazy.

Ronna McDaniel was on Fox News and said a default would be good for the republican party.

[Edward64]

Good news, looks like they are getting close. Markets are optimistic about a deal.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/26/debt...elopments.html

Under the deal currently on the table, House Republicans would achieve at least two of their highest priorities in exchange for voting to raise the debt ceiling. Firstly, to roll back baseline federal spending in 2024 on most discretionary programs. And second, to rescind some of the $80 billion allocated for the Internal Revenue Service as part of 2022′s Inflation Reduction Act, two sources with knowledge of the talks told CNBC.

That rescinded IRS money would then be used by to cover much of the shortfall in domestic funding created by the GOP spending cuts, essentially preserving the programs while technically cutting the overall topline figure. The Pentagon and veterans health benefits would be spared from any cuts, and see their funding actually increase next year.

Details were still fluid on Friday morning, with two officials calling the IRS funding trade off “a live issue.”

But on its face, the bargain could offer both parties a win. Republicans could claim, correctly, that they had secured a cut in baseline government spending for fiscal year 2024. Democrats, likewise, could say they preserved the vast majority of domestic programs at funding levels either equal to or just below their current ones.

[albionmoonlight]

As a federal government worker, I really hope that the rumors that they got rid of the possibility of a November shutdown by creating a default CR if not budget is reached are true.

Getting paid is one of my favorite things about working.

[Kodos]

Not me. I work for the glory and joy of not relaxing at home.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

As a federal government worker, I really hope that the rumors that they got rid of the possibility of a November shutdown by creating a default CR if not budget is reached are true.

Getting paid is one of my favorite things about working.

I'm so tired of political games being played with my paycheck.

[molson]

I actually wouldn't mind a small furlough. We had one in the late 00's recession, in state government, and had to take every other Friday off with the resulting paycut. But the best part was our supervisors making it clear that we were not to work a second longer than 72 hours over the 2 week period (when normally we were working way more, especially during busy times), and that we were expected to flood the courts with extension requests.

That comes from a place of entitlement and I do not hope for any kind of debt limit catastrophe or for anyone to be hurt by the economic conditions that create that kind of thing, but, I would definitely take a paycut for a little bit of a mandatory break. I'll be working all through Memorial Day weekend just on my normal stuff because we're so shorthanded.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by molson

I actually wouldn't mind a small furlough. We had one in the late 00's recession, in state government, and had to take every other Friday off with the resulting paycut. But the best part was our supervisors making it clear that we were not to work a second longer than 72 hours over the 2 week period (when normally we were working way more, especially during busy times), and that we were expected to flood the courts with extension requests.

That comes from a place of entitlement and I do not hope for any kind of debt limit catastrophe or for anyone to be hurt by the economic conditions that create that kind of thing, but, I would definitely take a paycut for a little bit of a mandatory break.

Since I work in a hospital I don't get a furlough. They make us exempt but we're still not getting paid until a budget passes or whatever holdup is resolved.

I have no idea how it's legal, but historically that's what's happened here.

[molson]

Sometimes I morbidly fantasize about what it would take for me to just - not be able to go into work anymore, or have to work unpaid. Like how far would government and society have to fall for nobody to care about the work of my particular agency. If the Trumpers succeeded and killed Pence and Pelosi and took over the government, would we just - continue on at the state level like nothing happened? When we have state constitutional mandated duties that impact peoples' lives?

Maybe we'll find out soon!

[cuervo72]

We contractors don't get furloughed, we just don't get paid. That's been fun in past shutdowns, when feds get back furloughed pay and they realize that hey, we don't!

We're also the first on the chopping block any time budgets get cut, or even frozen. (There of course there is no way for levels of service to stay the same on the same budget from year to year. Some costs inevitably go up. When they do, that money has to come from somewhere.)

[RainMaker]

How does a US default affect money market funds and such that are heavily invested in government securities? Like I genuinely don't know.

[flere-imsaho]

Depends which debts the Treasury decides to default on first. Then it'll be a race to see which causes those money markets to be worth nothing first - the insolvency of the bank or the default on the Treasury securities in it. Should be exciting!