The Trump Presidency – 2016

[Arles]

The current fund runs out in 2035. After that, payroll taxes will only be able to cover 75% - and that's if we get 2.6+% GDP growth each year, the number of retirees doesn't go crazy and future administrations don't start taking too many IOUs out on the fund.

So, we are going to get to a point where the age will probably be raised to 70, the benefit amount will be significantly reduced and the younger population will be taxed even higher to get those "worse" benefits. At some point, the system needs to change.

[JPhillips]

Why do benefits have to be significantly reduced if the worst case scenario ends with 75% payout?

With the coming retirement crisis from unfunded pensions, we should be talking about increasing SS, not reducing it.

[Arles]

75% is the best case. After 2035, there basically is no "fund", it's just what the payroll tax can cover. So, if the economy hits a slide or more retirees pop in, that amount could go down. Essentially, we will be basically borrowing money every year to cover retirees. That's the problem without some type of reform.

[JPhillips]

The latest trustees report has that at 83%. There is no need to make drastic changes to Social Security. As the trustees report says, just raising the current FICA tax two+ points solves the problem. There are also other small fixes that could be combined to make SS solvent for 75 years.

The problem isn't SS, it's politicians that want to destroy it.

[PilotMan]

I think the fact that people are living so much longer than before makes it a no-brainer to push the age when benefits start to pay out. Rest assured though, the Boomers will see that they are fully taken care of and that no harm will be done to them, just like every other time.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The latest trustees report has that at 83%. There is no need to make drastic changes to Social Security. As the trustees report says, just raising the current FICA tax two+ points solves the problem. There are also other small fixes that could be combined to make SS solvent for 75 years.

The problem isn't SS, it's politicians that want to destroy it.

I think a system that will continually need tax increases to stay solvent, combined with the tax being extremely regressive to lower income and younger workers is a problem. At what point is the tax too much? 16%, 20%? We just burned through the social security fund we created over the past 30 years and will be at $0 in 17-18 years. People are living longer and insurance is getting more and more expensive. Do you really think that a 12% (or even 14%) payroll tax will cover it all by 2040? Unless we agree to completely gut benefits and payouts, a higher tax bill will be due to cover it. The only reasonable long term solution is to partially privatize SS. Heck, those of us under 50 will be relying on our own privatized investments for 80+% of our retirement even in a best case. What's the big deal if a portion of the government's side is also private? Otherwise, our grandkids will be paying a massive tax so that our kids can retire.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Hope she had a big piece of paper

I'm sure she can fit all 128 names on a postcard, and still have room for Ivanka's tax return... vote was 128-9 with 30+ abstains.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think a system that will continually need tax increases to stay solvent, combined with the tax being extremely regressive to lower income and younger workers is a problem. At what point is the tax too much? 16%, 20%? We just burned through the social security fund we created over the past 30 years and will be at $0 in 17-18 years. People are living longer and insurance is getting more and more expensive. Do you really think that a 12% (or even 14%) payroll tax will cover it all by 2040? Unless we agree to completely gut benefits and payouts, a higher tax bill will be due to cover it. The only reasonable long term solution is to partially privatize SS. Heck, those of us under 50 will be relying on our own privatized investments for 80+% of our retirement even in a best case. What's the big deal if a portion of the government's side is also private? Otherwise, our grandkids will be paying a massive tax so that our kids can retire.

That's not what the Trustees for SS say at all. SS will only die if Congress chooses to kill it. Fairly modest changes can stabilize it for the 75 year window.

As for raising the retirement age, that seriously punishes manual laborers, so it shifts benefits from the poor and working classes to the middle and upper classes. Manual laborers have a life expectancy several years less than white collar workers. If the goal of reform is to help those that most need it, raising the retirement age does the opposite.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The problem is ...

That it's a pyramid scheme & those eventually fall.

Politicians have, however, exacerbated an ultimately untenable situation.
The "borrowing" from SS is one of the most inexcusable acts the U.S. government has ever made afaic.

[JPhillips]

Today Trump commuted the sentence of Iowa's largest employer of illegal immigrants.

Everything's a con.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by whomario

No offense, but you really need to read up ob the historical background. Short version not even taking that into account: UN as a body agreed on a strategy, now Trump comes and does what he wants despite being a member. It's akin to Germany suddenly saying that North Korea is just wonderful and start sending goods and weapons their way despite the agreed upon sanctions.

Also: The UN Resolution in question does NOT request the US not move their embassy. All it does is basically say "We regret that one of our members has decided unilaterally go against UN policy" and thus merely telling everybody involved that they disagree with the US's assessment and stick with the agreed-upon policy.

I'm going to take a little offense to that, because I know the historical background and I think it's the majority of Europeans who have a weird view on the events (to not even mention the general Arab viewpoint on them). Israel and the Arab states fought several wars, and even when the Arabs started them with surprise attacks Israel ultimately dominated them on the battlefield and controlled more territory at the end of each. So now they cry to the UN that they should reset the borders, despite 31 UN countries refusing to even recognize Israel as a country. Most artificially drawn borders in the Middle East and Africa by colonial powers were dumb anyways and have created conflict ever since those countries achieved independence, but why stop at 1967 borders instead of going back to 1948? Why not go back further and give it to the Ottomans? What if Germany wanted to go back to pre-1918 borders and get Alsace-Lorraine back?

Btw if you think this is Trump unilaterally deciding something you should do a little research as well. I'm sorry that Jimmy Carter let something slip through 37 years ago when he was being run out of office, but the decision to move the embassy to Jerusalem was actually passed by Congress 22 years ago, and every 6 months since the various Presidents have had to unilaterally delay it (which was easy enough to do by citing security as a rationale.) Plus, yes, this specific resolution merely recommends countries don't do it, but the one earlier this week would've actually tried to ban it and the US is never giving up sovereignty to the UN (or ICC, etc), which imo is really what really pisses most foreigners off.

The US without international help has been the driving force behind the two biggest concrete advances in Arab/Israeli peace accords, Egypt-Israel (and establishing a peacekeeping force outside the UN because of a threatened veto) and Israel-Jordan in 1994, and has tried restarting the peace process between Israel & the PA seemingly every couple years. But that last one will never be solved because neither side negotiates in good faith or will ever agree to give in on the main issues (right of return, Golan Heights), because an Israel that gives citizenship and voting rights to even 5 million+ Arabs would cease to be a Jewish state, and on the other side Syria, Lebanon, the PA & Hezbollah refuse to admit that when you start a war & lose it you don't get to cry about losing territory. Meanwhile the UN passes worthless resolutions and has 25 countries who don't recognize Israel's existence voting on a resolution that claims the US embassy being located in West Jerusalem - which is recognized by the UN as part of any future Israeli state - would be the bigger impediment to the peace process.

[bbgunn]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Today Trump commuted the sentence of Iowa's largest employer of illegal immigrants.

Everything's a con.

Yep, I was wondering why people who employ illegal immigrants seemed to be on Trump's side when he's screaming "WE'RE GOING TO BUILD THE BIGGEST WALL EVER" and "MEXICO DOESN'T SEND THEIR BEST," because it would seem to deplete their source of workers that they can pay below minimum wage and otherwise skirt labor laws.

[JPhillips]

Our Dutch ambassador is asked about his statements on no-go zones in the Netherlands and he says he never said it, and that it's fake news. The reporter shows him the clip of him saying those things and asks about calling it fake news. Our ambassador says, he never said fake news.

http://thehill.com/policy/internatio...-talking-no-go

[JPhillips]

Wharton School estimates that the effective corporate rate will drop from 23% to 9%.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Our Dutch ambassador is asked about his statements on no-go zones in the Netherlands and he says he never said it, and that it's fake news. The reporter shows him the clip of him saying those things and asks about calling it fake news. Our ambassador says, he never said fake news.

http://thehill.com/policy/internatio...-talking-no-go

Only the best people, indeed

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by cartman

Only the best people, indeed

He never said that

[JPhillips]

Trump's challenge coin has to be seen to be believed.

What an asshole. (That's Pence, Biden and Obama, from left to right.)



https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.22af52446293

[BBT]

"You all just got a lot richer,” Trump tells friends, referencing tax overhaul

The president himself on Sept. 13 — long before the bill was finalized — said the wealthy would not benefit from the GOP tax overhaul.

"The rich will not be gaining at all with this plan. We are looking for the middle class and we are looking for jobs -- jobs being the economy," Mr. Trump said.

[Edward64]

Good to see we have a friend (bribed or not). I really don't know how this will play out. There are going to be unintended consequences from us formally recognizing Jerusalem (but there always is with any decision of significance).

I do know that status quo was not working so I'm willing to give it a shot in hopes it changes the dynamics and gets things going somehow.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/24/middle...lem/index.html

Guatemala plans to move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales said on his official Facebook account on Sunday.

Morales said he had spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and instructed Guatemala's foreign ministry to "initiate the process to make it possible."

Guatemala, the United States, Israel and six smaller nations voted against a United Nations resolution to condemn US President Donald Trump's decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. The vote on Thursday was overwhelming, with 128 in support and 35 abstentions. Another 21 countries did not participate in the vote.

[Thomkal]

US secures $285M cut in UN budget

[Edward64]

If I was China, I would pickup the difference and continue my ascent in the world stage vs US.

Chump change to them but great payback in goodwill and spite to US.

[Thomkal]

Not even on Christmas...

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump









People are proud to be saying Merry Christmas again. I am proud to have led the charge against the assault of our cherished and beautiful phrase. MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!


I love in the replies people posts tweets and videos of not only Obama saying Merry Christmas, but the number of times Trump said Happy Holidays

[molson]

The last few years when I haven't been allowed to say Merry Christmas have been really difficult. Thanks for making Christmas great again Donald!

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by molson

The last few years when I haven't been allowed to say Merry Christmas have been really difficult. Thanks for making Christmas great again Donald!

+1

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by molson

The last few years when I haven't been allowed to say Merry Christmas have been really difficult. Thanks for making Christmas great again Donald!

And all the firm anti-Trump people think this is somehow a mistake or stupid, to put stuff out there suggesting that he has saved Christmas. They (we) think that pointing out to other firmly anti-Trump people that this is demonstrably false somehow wins the argument, and nullifies the points it scores with the gullible pro-Trump types.

[Marc Vaughan]

The sad thing is that a proportion of his base believe he has somehow saved Christmas .. however that says a lot about the critical thinking skills of a specific demographic ... how big that demographic is I have no idea, but it scares me that it is probably far larger than I originally realized ..

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

The sad thing is that a proportion of his base believe he has somehow saved Christmas .. however that says a lot about the critical thinking skills of a specific demographic ... how big that demographic is I have no idea, but it scares me that it is probably far larger than I originally realized ..

I suspect that there's a ton of confirmation bias at work here. When a Democrat is in office, Christmas is under attack, and every store cashier, sign, man on the street, coffee cup, etc. that doesn't explicitly say "Merry Christmas" confirms that the liberals are de-Christianizing America. But now that Trump is in charge, we are Making Christmas Great Again. Therefore, though the percentage of cashiers, men on the street, signs, coffee cups that give a "Happy Holidays" message certainly hasn't changed much, the non-Merry-Christmas overtures get interpreted vastly differently. They're no longer more evidence of a greater conspiracy against Christmas; they are merely singular examples of a dying breed of holdout liberal vestiges of the Obama era, trying to cling desperately to the bygone days of secularism, because EVERYONE knows that now we have Made Christmas Great Again.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I suspect that there's a ton of confirmation bias at work here. When a Democrat is in office, Christmas is under attack, and every store cashier, sign, man on the street, coffee cup, etc. that doesn't explicitly say "Merry Christmas" confirms that the liberals are de-Christianizing America. But now that Trump is in charge, we are Making Christmas Great Again. Therefore, though the percentage of cashiers, men on the street, signs, coffee cups that give a "Happy Holidays" message certainly hasn't changed much, the non-Merry-Christmas overtures get interpreted vastly differently. They're no longer more evidence of a greater conspiracy against Christmas; they are merely singular examples of a dying breed of holdout liberal vestiges of the Obama era, trying to cling desperately to the bygone days of secularism, because EVERYONE knows that now we have Made Christmas Great Again.

+1

Trump definitely knows how to play a certain subset of the population.

[JPhillips]

I think it's even simpler. It's just another way to proclaim your white nationalist bonafides.

[molson]

You guys have probably seen Trump in the Hall of Presidents by now, but, just wanted to share. There's a lot of talk about how it doesn't look like him, how it might just be a refurbished Hilly robot with a wig - but it's just still bizarre to me that he's up there at all...this still feels like a Simpsons Halloween episode.

FULL Donald Trump animatronic speech in Hall of Presidents 2017, Walt Disney World - YouTube

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think it's even simpler. It's just another way to proclaim your white nationalist bonafides.

So now Christmas is a "white nationalist" thing?

And you wonder why leftists have no credibility with sane people?

[ISiddiqui]

'Cause that's exactly what he said. Also I think you made his case for him.

[bbgunn]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

So now Christmas is a "white nationalist" thing?

And you wonder why leftists have no credibility with sane people?

Says the guy with no credibility whatsoever.

[JPhillips]

No, the War on Christmas is about white nationalism.

Christmas is the opposite of that. If Merry Christmas is a way to say fuck you to the libs, you're doing it wrong.

[Fidatelo]

I feel like there are a lot of Christians out there who aren't necessarily racist and certainly aren't 'white nationalists' but who nonetheless miss the simple act of being able to greet people with a Merry Christmas around this time of year. And those are definitely some people that Trump is trying to reach with this stuff.

But he's also proclaiming his white nationalist bonafides.

[molson]

I say Merry Christmas all the time, both in Idaho and when I'm in heathen New England. I guess the authorities just haven't caught up to me yet? Nobody's even given me a dirty look.

[cuervo72]

Man, the inconvenience of occasionally acknowledging that someone doesn't share your beliefs!

(Which, you don't REALLY have to do; just say Merry Christmas to everyone and if they correct you, that's on them. If you don't really care about trying to be considerate to others -- and that's what "Happy Holidays" as an alternative is about -- then just say what you want. *shurg*)

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by molson

I say Merry Christmas all the time, both in Idaho and when I'm in heathen New England. I guess the authorities just haven't caught up to me yet? Nobody's even given me a dirty look.

I got much more grief this year for saying Happy Hanukkah to random people during the holiday.

[stevew]

I thought we had made it thru Xmas without a bunch of dumb shit happening. No viral Starbucks cups, etc. And of course Trump can't just keep his thumbs to himself.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

No, the War on Christmas is about white nationalism.

Christmas is the opposite of that. If Merry Christmas is a way to say fuck you to the libs, you're doing it wrong.

Good old Megan Kelly telling us how Jesus and Santa are white.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by bbgunn

Says the guy with no credibility whatsoever.

Oh goody, another meaningless precinct heard from.

Thanks for playing. Enjoy the home edition of the game.

[thesloppy]

The War on Christmas does seem like some kind of self-perpetuating bullshit from right-wing media/political sources. I can totally see how it would be fucking maddening to constantly hear reports about every possible way that individual retailers and marketers are trying to pander to as many people as possible with false inclusiveness....but like, WHY do that? Of course Christmas is fucking ruined if you want to decide a particular piece of packaging from a certain retailer is what most defines it. The irony is absolutely no liberals or leftists are ruining their holidays over holiday packaging, or even talking about it, while conservative folks have apparently integrated retail persecution and extra misery into their modern Christmas holiday process, rabidly hunting for any perceived slight, entirely by choice, and don't even realize it.

To my eyes (which are obviously biased) it sure seems like the greatest persecution by far is coming from the few minutes conservative folks are apparently forced to spend every day in the wind-up to Christmas being told that someone thinks they're not allowed to enjoy Christmas. Yes, that sucks. The solution isn't a culture war against retailers, the solution is to stop willingly listening to angry assholes who are actively trying to ruin your Christmas.

[ISiddiqui]

Don't get me started on the War on Advent!!

I do wonder how many of these people who get upset over perceived lack of Merry Christmas (which I have no idea where they are getting this from) actually attend Church more than twice a year?

[molson]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

If you don't really care about trying to be considerate to others -- and that's what "Happy Holidays" as an alternative is about -- then just say what you want.

So you do think it's rude to say Merry Christmas to someone? Maybe there's more to this war on Christmas than I thought.

Personally, I use it as a generic seasonal greeting and am not offended at all if someone wishes me happy hanukkah, kwanzaa, ramadan, or whatever (or just happy holidays). I hope someone wouldn't go through an internal editing process when greeting me.

[Thomkal]

So this is why Trump wanted the embassy in Jerusalem...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...all/983664001/

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

The War on Christmas does seem like some kind of self-perpetuating bullshit from right-wing media/political sources. I can totally see how it would be fucking maddening to constantly hear reports about every possible way that individual retailers and marketers are trying to pander to as many people as possible with false inclusiveness....but like, WHY do that? Of course Christmas is fucking ruined if you want to decide a particular piece of packaging from a certain retailer is what most defines it. The irony is absolutely no liberals or leftists are ruining their holidays over holiday packaging, or even talking about it, while conservative folks have apparently integrated retail persecution and extra misery into their modern Christmas holiday process, rabidly hunting for any perceived slight, entirely by choice, and don't even realize it.

To my eyes (which are obviously biased) it sure seems like the greatest persecution by far is coming from the few minutes conservative folks are apparently forced to spend every day in the wind-up to Christmas being told that someone thinks they're not allowed to enjoy Christmas. Yes, that sucks. The solution isn't a culture war against retailers, the solution is to stop willingly listening to angry assholes who are actively trying to ruin your Christmas.

I’m amazed at the amount of effort right wing orgs use to lie to the people most likely to share their ideology. Why do so many people allow themselves to be conned?

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I’m amazed at the amount of effort right wing orgs use to lie to the people most likely to share their ideology. Why do so many people allow themselves to be conned?

Well, to be fair, there's certainly a number of liberal/leftist sites that are happy to paralyze anybody with constant, unnecessary updates on the most polarizing of fears as well, but the whole seasonal aspect makes it a lot easier to single out the absurdity of The Christmas Warz.

[Atocep]

Gallup's most admired men, 2017:
1. Barack Obama
2. Donald Trump
3. Pope Francis
4. Billy Graham
5. John McCain

Women:
1. Hillary Clinton
2. Michelle Obama
3. Oprah Winfrey
4. Elizabeth Warren
5. Angela Merkelhttps://t.co/O9IyPIZTYj

— Gabriel Debenedetti (@gdebenedetti) December 27, 2017

What's interesting to me isn't that Trump became the 1st first year president not to win in 71 years. It's that not a single conservative woman made the top 5. Actually, the last time a conservative woman made the top 5 was Condoleezza Rice in 2014.

[bbgunn]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Oh goody, another meaningless precinct heard from.

Thanks for playing. Enjoy the home edition of the game.

It takes a meaningless precinct to know one. You'd be hard pressed to find a person in this thread that thinks that you have anything meaningful to say. I know I don't have anything meaningful to say, but unlike you, I don't pretend I do. When your argument is that "Trump is better than the alternative," you don't have anything meaningful to say. When you cheer for "chaos", it tells me that you have no good solutions to fix the ills in the U.S. So don't pretend that you are high and mighty with your takes.

And I have the deluxe edition of the game. Let me know if you want another round.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by molson

So you do think it's rude to say Merry Christmas to someone? Maybe there's more to this war on Christmas than I thought.

Personally, I use it as a generic seasonal greeting and am not offended at all if someone wishes me happy hanukkah, kwanzaa, ramadan, or whatever (or just happy holidays). I hope someone wouldn't go through an internal editing process when greeting me.

Oh, I don't really care what brand of well-wishes I get -- they're all good. But I've grown up and lived in areas which were heterogeneous enough that I don't assume everyone celebrates Christmas. I think the "war" is viewed as such by people who seem annoyed that you can't/shouldn't assume everyone celebrates Christmas. They don't want to have to hear or say anything else.