Big 10 Expansion Thread -Big Ten ready for a playoff .. finally?

[Logan]

So you really think if the Big 10 gets to 16 and those two schools come begging, Delaney says no? For logistics.

Really?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Logan

So you really think if the Big 10 gets to 16 and those two schools come begging, Delaney says no? For logistics.

Really?

Well, I agree with the previous poster that said they'll give them one last shot to get in. After that, I don't think they leave the door wide open as you suggest without moving to 20 teams, but I'm not sure that's in their best interest either.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I would be happy for KU to join the Big (16?), only because I think the Big XII is still the conference that gets picked apart when all is said and done so I'd like to have a seat at a table before they're all gone.

Originally Posted by corbes

From what I can see, there seems to be very little confidence in ACC territory that the future includes the ACC.

Everyone's thought it's leading to 4 16-team conferences for awhile now, but that only makes sense if the Pac-12 gets 4 viable teams, and that almost certainly would have to include Texas or the Oklahoma's, especially now that the Big 10 took Nebraska and the SEC aTm. Then there would be some B12/Big East/ACC hybrid as the 4th super-conference. But if Texas is set on leading their own conference (and if the Pac-12 insists on equal revenues and they can bring FSU+ Clemson or Louisville over, why wouldn't they?) where does the Pac-12 find 4 more teams? And does the Eastern Seaboard really get that screwed, with Rutgers and Maryland the 2 most-northeast teams in a major conference and only one Florida team in? I know college football isn't nearly as big up here, but those are some big TV markets and population centers to completely ignore.

[Abe Sargent]

Every major conference that can, will have a Florida school for recruiting and TV>

[Young Drachma]

http://digital.olivesoftware.com/Oli...&view=ZW50aXR5 (Story from the Providence Journal)

Big East caught in the crossfire as conference realignment rages on - Pete Thamel - SI.com

Some chatter that if UConn heads to the ACC, that gives the Big East's basketball only schools a 2/3 majority to dissolve the Big East before the new football schools join and get full voting rights in July. There is just no consensus among them whether they'd get a decent enough TV deal to make it work and so, there's some pie in the sky discussion about a national Catholic league or some variation.

Should be interesting to see what the fallout of all of this is.

[molson]

I like the idea of a "Northeastern hoops super-conference" with the Big East Catholic schools + Xaiver, Dayton, Creighton, etc.....That might not make a ton of financial sense except if all the football schools bail....which of course is happening.

[Young Drachma]

Butler, VCU and other elite mid-majors should form new conference - Stewart Mandel - SI.com

This is worth revisiting, except to do it for real this time.

[Butter]

What do you think the A10 was trying to do by inviting Butler and VCU in? Temple may be reconsidering their move to the Big East, especially if they end up imploding in the wake of a UConn defection.

As for a Northeastern super-hoops conference, the long-standing rumor is that it would be the Catholic Schools in the Big East that would initiate that sort of realignment... and the resulting league would include St. John's, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Villanova, Providence, DePaul, Marquette, Xavier, Dayton, St. Joe's, Creighton, and St. Louis.

This is generally a pipe dream conjured up by Dayton fans, and considering how badly UD got shafted by many of these teams in the wake of the demise of the Great Midwest, I am not in any hurry to have Dayton realign with any of these Big East programs.

[britrock88]

I am looking forward to a Catholic basketball conference, personally.

[Logan]

Tulane (all sports) and East Carolina (football only) are joining the Big East. Nine of the conference's members will be former CUSA schools.

[Young Drachma]

New Atlantic 10 Television Contract Shows Big East Basketball Schools Aren't Going Anywhere - Big East Coast Bias

I wonder if the bball schools are just going to suffer through figuring its free money having football schools associated with the basketball brand.

[britrock88]

Since when is ECU the type of school to make a football-only move? ???

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Since when is ECU the type of school to make a football-only move? ???

Well they've got a huge stadium by Big East standards, but their TV market is non-existent and they're not much of an academic school. Big East didn't want to have to add them at all, but they got backed into a corner.

[Young Drachma]

Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, DePaul, Marquette are the non-football playing schools of the Big East. I guess they just figure that watering down the brand is worth it to them. That core isn't going anywhere and so, at least it'll be decent basketball conference if nothing else.

[Young Drachma]

Adding Temple and Memphis to that mix and you've got a solid basketball league. If any of those other schools manages to find their footing in the sport over a longer period (I'm thinking Houston, specifically) then it's still a 3-5 bid league. That's not that bad. And they'd still probably have the inside track on that Group of Five (MWC, BE, Sun Belt, MAC, C-USA) auto-bid to the playoffs starting in 2014.

[corbes]

At what point should athletic departments decide that football conference affiliation should be separate from the conference affiliation for most or all other sports? Aren't we headed in that direction?

[MacroGuru]

BYU and the BE opened discussions again with BYU saying thanks but no thanks.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by MacroGuru

BYU and the BE opened discussions again with BYU saying thanks but no thanks.

Back to the MWC then, eh??

[MacroGuru]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

Back to the MWC then, eh??

I don't think they will go anywhere and stick with Independence, they have some great future schedules.

I do see them going back to the MWC over the BE though if they have to join a conference to ensure the schedule.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by MacroGuru

I don't think they will go anywhere and stick with Independence, they have some great future schedules.

I do see them going back to the MWC over the BE though if they have to join a conference to ensure the schedule.

Aah, that ESPN deal is paying them well enough and it's not as if they're threatening to make a title game anytime soon anyway. So fair enough.

[Young Drachma]

In basketball only news, University of Denver leaving the WAC for the Summit League. Unconfirmed reports are that D2 Grand Canyon University (AZ) is headed to the WAC.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

In basketball only news, University of Denver leaving the WAC for the Summit League. Unconfirmed reports are that D2 Grand Canyon University (AZ) is headed to the WAC.

Are you adding these to the list on the FBCB sim league site as you go?

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Are you adding these to the list on the FBCB sim league site as you go?

Hahahaha...I haven't yet.

[General Mike]

Originally Posted by Logan

Tulane (all sports) and East Carolina (football only) are joining the Big East. Nine of the conference's members will be former CUSA schools.

Thank god we got out.

[Young Drachma]

ACC Will Vote On Expansion Wednesday Morning David Glenn

ACC presidents and chancellors will participate in a 7 a.m. teleconference Wednesday and then cast votes on the league’s expansion candidates, multiple sources told ACCSports.com, with Louisville the most likely school to receive an invitation.
According to conference bylaws, an individual expansion candidate must receive at least 75 percent of the vote for approval.
Louisville already has indicated publicly and privately that it will accept an ACC invitation if it comes. Cincinnati, Connecticut, Navy and South Florida also have pursued ACC membership and indicated that they would join if invited. UConn and Navy also have received support from multiple ACC presidents, sources said, but only Louisville currently has a realistic chance at the votes required for an official invitation.
“Given the way the conversations have gone to this point, either Louisville will be approved for an invitation (Wednesday) or nobody will be approved for an invitation,” one ACC source said. “Any other result would be a major surprise.”
ACC presidents have debated how much weight to put on factors such as recent athletic success, traditional athletic success, TV market size, academic reputation and geography, sources said.
As a long-time basketball power with a rising football program and a dynamic athletic director (Tom Jurich), Louisville is seen as by far the best candidate athletically. However, in terms of academics (see below) and TV market size (see bottom), the Cardinals would fit at the bottom of the existing ACC spectrum.

[britrock88]

...And what will Rick Pitino have to say about this?!?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

ACC Will Vote On Expansion Wednesday Morning David Glenn

Ouch. BIG mistake on the B12's part if they let Louisville get away.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Ouch. BIG mistake on the B12's part if they let Louisville get away.

I don't think so. Right now, there's this assumption that 14 is necessary, and that's probably just a stepping stone to 16.

If you stay at 10, what does Louisville offer you to make 11 look attractive? Who's your 12th? If you start moving the Big XII toward 12 and 14, what stops Texas and Oklahoma from moving west, which makes the remaining Big XII look a lot like yesterday's Big East?

I think the Big Ten is going to regret moving to 14. Sure, it opens up new markets, but these new schools are below the league average in terms of revenue production. Add to that the loss of familiar rivalry games.

I hope one of these big conferences hits 16, then splits back to 8 like the WAC did.

[Marmel]

Louisville to ACC. Meh. Would much rather have seen Uconn. Unlimited potential for the Huskies in football and they have a great basketball tradition.

Also hearing ACC and ESPN working on wrapping up their own ACC network. Big $ for all ACC teams.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

If you stay at 10, what does Louisville offer you to make 11 look attractive? Who's your 12th? If you start moving the Big XII toward 12 and 14, what stops Texas and Oklahoma from moving west, which makes the remaining Big XII look a lot like yesterday's Big East?

I don't disagree with this, which is the main reason Nebraska, Mizzou and A&M all left. You're absolutely correct that UT and OU can and may move at any time. They were considering that, which pushed Mizzou out the door. By adding some teams, the B12 could at least ensure that even if UT and OU leave, they have enough to keep going. Without that guarantee, the other schools are in a real pickle with no other place to land.

Louisville was a good program and one that fit the footprint of the conference. The B12 is quickly running out of options if the B10, ACC, SEC, and Pac10 all move to 16 teams. With that said, maybe that's what we expected. Those four conferences pick apart the B12 and it's no more.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I don't think so. Right now, there's this assumption that 14 is necessary, and that's probably just a stepping stone to 16.

If you stay at 10, what does Louisville offer you to make 11 look attractive? Who's your 12th? If you start moving the Big XII toward 12 and 14, what stops Texas and Oklahoma from moving west, which makes the remaining Big XII look a lot like yesterday's Big East?

I think the Big Ten is going to regret moving to 14. Sure, it opens up new markets, but these new schools are below the league average in terms of revenue production. Add to that the loss of familiar rivalry games.

I hope one of these big conferences hits 16, then splits back to 8 like the WAC did.

I think you are really on point here.

Louisville is/was the best remaining choice out there and a fine replacement for Maryland, but they don't generate any revenue increase for the Big 12 (and certainly won't for the even larger ACC). There is not much point for the Big 12 to add them and go away from the round robin schedule (that provides all teams to marquee match ups against Texas and Oklahoma and really boosts the SOS numbers that have become so valuable in the BCS/postseason formulas).

I still think that the ACC is vulnerable to losing their "football first" schools due to their TV money disadvantage (that was solely a product of bad timing/luck) and, more importantly, because their SOS is going to prevent them from putting teams in a four-team playoff in most seasons. The fact that 2-loss Florida State and Clemson are behind six other 2-loss teams (and were similarly behind five 1-loss and three 2-loss teams last week, before losing) shows you that you that an ACC team is likely going to need to be undefeated in order to finish ahead of any SEC, Big Ten, B12, or P12 team in most years (and that is not considering what might happen if it isn't a FSU/Clemson/VPI/GT/Miami-type program that has credibility). The thought of falling significantly behind in TV revenues, plus not having as good of bowl deals, plus having less access to the playoffs has to raise some doubt in the football first crowd.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I don't disagree with this, which is the main reason Nebraska, Mizzou and A&M all left. You're absolutely correct that UT and OU can and may move at any time. They were considering that, which pushed Mizzou out the door. By adding some teams, the B12 could at least ensure that even if UT and OU leave, they have enough to keep going. Without that guarantee, the other schools are in a real pickle with no other place to land.

Louisville was a good program and one that fit the footprint of the conference. The B12 is quickly running out of options if the B10, ACC, SEC, and Pac10 all move to 16 teams. With that said, maybe that's what we expected. Those four conferences pick apart the B12 and it's no more.

I still don't see the urgency for the Big 12 to feel threatened enough to move to 16 (although I would like to see 12). They have superior TV contracts and bowl arrangements (for example, they get to split their $40-million SEC payout ten-ways to the ACC's $25-million payout fourteen-ways) and, unless Texas and Oklahoma want to shift from a Texas/Oklahoma-centric conference to a California-centric conference, where they'll play a considerable chunk of their games in the Western time zone and have similar TV revenue, I don't see a whole lot of threat from the Pac12.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I think you are really on point here.

Louisville is/was the best remaining choice out there and a fine replacement for Maryland, but they don't generate any revenue increase for the Big 12 (and certainly won't for the even larger ACC). There is not much point for the Big 12 to add them and go away from the round robin schedule (that provides all teams to marquee match ups against Texas and Oklahoma and really boosts the SOS numbers that have become so valuable in the BCS/postseason formulas).

I still think that the ACC is vulnerable to losing their "football first" schools due to their TV money disadvantage (that was solely a product of bad timing/luck) and, more importantly, because their SOS is going to prevent them from putting teams in a four-team playoff in most seasons. The fact that 2-loss Florida State and Clemson are behind six other 2-loss teams (and were similarly behind five 1-loss and three 2-loss teams last week, before losing) shows you that you that an ACC team is likely going to need to be undefeated in order to finish ahead of any SEC, Big Ten, B12, or P12 team in most years (and that is not considering what might happen if it isn't a FSU/Clemson/VPI/GT/Miami-type program that has credibility). The thought of falling significantly behind in TV revenues, plus not having as good of bowl deals, plus having less access to the playoffs has to raise some doubt in the football first crowd.

This is true as of today, but if the ACC goes to a network as is rumored, it opens up a new regional revenue stream that wouldn't have been otherwise available (as does their other moves). The ACC appears to be moving towards nailing down bigger markets across a wide area, much like the B10 and SEC are doing. If so, this move makes perfect sense. The B12 doesn't have any plans to do a network at this point, so they're taking a different approach. Time will tell whether it's the right approach.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

They have superior TV contracts and bowl arrangements.......

That's mostly because the ACC and SEC have not finished their new contracts/networks, while the PAC12 and B12 have. Let's wait and see where it all lands after the new negotiations are complete. There's plenty of money to go around, but I think that statement is true based on the timing of your statement rather than a real position of strength compared to the other conferences IMO.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Marmel

Louisville to ACC. Meh. Would much rather have seen Uconn. Unlimited potential for the Huskies in football and they have a great basketball tradition.

Also hearing ACC and ESPN working on wrapping up their own ACC network. Big $ for all ACC teams.

Why do you feel UConn has "unlimited potential"? They play in an off campus stadium and have a barren recruiting area.

Louisville was a much better choice from a football AND basketball perspective (UConn's academic issues, post-Calhoun era, etc)

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

This is true as of today, but if the ACC goes to a network as is rumored, it opens up a new regional revenue stream that wouldn't have been otherwise available (as does their other moves). The ACC appears to be moving towards nailing down bigger markets across a wide area, much like the B10 and SEC are doing. If so, this move makes perfect sense. The B12 doesn't have any plans to do a network at this point, so they're taking a different approach. Time will tell whether it's the right approach.

Right now ESPN owns the tier 3 rights to the ACC and ESPN subcontracts those rights to Raycom for $50-million per year (which goes to ESPN, not the ACC).

In order for the ACC to start a network, they are going to have to go through some major legal hurdles (and risk pissing off their sugar daddy: ESPN) or get Notre Dame to join.

I'd guess that, unless Notre Dame agrees to a full membership, the ACC is stuck working on ESPN's terms.

[timmynausea]

This quote from an FSU official says a lot:

"We'd be absolutely foolish to not watch Maryland," one FSU official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Sporting News. "If or when they get out of (the $50 million buyout), everything changes. It's almost like free agency."

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

That's mostly because the ACC and SEC have not finished their new contracts/networks, while the PAC12 and B12 have. Let's wait and see where it all lands after the new negotiations are complete. There's plenty of money to go around, but I think that statement is true based on the timing of your statement rather than a real position of strength compared to the other conferences IMO.

Unless you are aware of some type of breaking news, you are correct about the SEC but not the ACC. The SEC should shatter the ceiling with their new deal (until the Big Ten comes along and does likewise).

The ACC got a small bump up last year (in exchange for more years -- into the 2025-27 range, I believe) when they added Pitt and Syracuse, but the deal is for tiers 1/2/3 and is reportedly heavily backloaded and its average is still considerably below the other AQ conferences deals. The ACC's de facto "network" is Raycom and it is sub licensed through ESPN. As mentioned, the ACC was unfortunate in that they were the first of the AQ conferences to finish their contracts. They may have some ironing out to do with the addition of Notre Dame, but the reports are that all three tiers of the ACC will be beneath the tier 1 and 2 values of the other "AQ" conferences.

[Toddzilla]

Louisville in = Virginia Tech out

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

Louisville in = Virginia Tech out

I think you are probably right.

From what seems to be making the rounds, there won't be any movement until Maryland and the ACC set the precedent for getting out of that $50M exit fee.

Maryland and FSU were the only schools to vote against it, so there is some thought that they may have/had more leverage to leave within a "reasonable" amount of time.

[Swaggs]

BTW -- here's the Raycom agreement article: Raycom keeps piece of ACC rights - Charlotte Business Journal

According to that site, it is a 12-year deal that began in 2011-2012. Another article indicated that it pays ESPN (not the ACC, because ESPN owns the programming) $50M per year. There was some news about it at the time, because ACC Commish John Swofford's son works for Raycom, they had lost their SEC programming a few years before and the deal with the ACC basically kept them afloat.

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by Logan

Why do you feel UConn has "unlimited potential"? They play in an off campus stadium and have a barren recruiting area.

Louisville was a much better choice from a football AND basketball perspective (UConn's academic issues, post-Calhoun era, etc)

Uconn's program is 10 years old, they already won 2 Big East titles and went to a BCS bowl. Any sport that Uconn has decided to compete in, they have won in. A lot of teams play a little off campus, so that is no big deal at all. While the state of CT doesn't have a ton of D1 talent, there are surrounding areas they can pull from. They have a decent number of players in the NFL already. I believe they are 4-4 against Louisville in football over the past decade. Pitino is not going to be around much longer when you look at basketball.

I am not a Uconn fan despite living in CT, but they have an excellent athletic program and history shows they know how to build a program. Their basketball was 'Rutgers-bad' in the 80's and now they are elite.

Not to mention the academic angle...

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

Louisville in = Virginia Tech out

Why is that?

They got in with an 8-3 vote and the no's were:UNC, UVa and WF.
VTech voted FOR them

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Marmel

Louisville to ACC. Meh. Would much rather have seen Uconn.

Mostly +1 here.

I'm happy that we didn't adopt Geno into the conference, especially since GT women's basketball is pretty much the one hopeful spot in the athletic department at this point.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I hope one of these big conferences hits 16, then splits back to 8 like the WAC did.

We have our winner.

[JeeberD]

Not that any of y'all will care, but MTSU and FAU are going to be joining CUSA to replace ECU and Tulane. And very recently a rumor started circulating that Western Kentucky and NMSU will be joining as well.

If NMSU joins CUSA, that's a sign that UTEP is on their way out. Hopefully to the Mountain Worst...

[tarcone]

Iowa lost rival Wisky when it went to 12. Not sure if rivalries are more important than potential TV dollars.

[Solecismic]

This would be more entertaining if Chuck Whorley were narrating for ESPN, and played little videos of each college president saying what he likes to do when attending a football game.

For those of you keeping score at home, 43 of the 127 FBS schools in 2015 will have made an affiliation switch in the last four years (with more to come, no doubt).

In 2015, football conferences will have the following structure:

(rankings are for the average school in each conference in academic strength, historic football performance and athletic budgeting)

SEC: In 2011, 12 schools, 54th acad, 34th football, 22nd money.
SEC: In 2015, 14 schools, 51st acad, 33rd football, 22nd money.
Smart expansion given the decision to go to 14.

Big Ten: In 2011, 11 schools, 16th acad, 42nd football, 23rd money.
Big Ten: In 2015, 14 schools, 20th acad, 40th football, 28th money.
Sounds like television revenue made the decision here, not common sense. Nebraska was a good addition and 12 made sense.

Pac Twelve: In 2011, 10 schools, 28th acad, 47th football, 41st money.
Pac Twelve: In 2015, 12 schools, 30th acad, 45th football, 44th money.
Did the best they could with difficult geography. Further expansion without Texas makes absolutely no sense.

ACC: In 2011, 12 schools, 28th acad, 45th football, 44th money.
ACC: In 2014, 14 schools, 33rd acad, 45th football, 42nd money.
Again, doing what they can, but you have to wonder if Maryland would have stayed without that jump to 14. Taking Louisville over Connecticut was solely about money.

Big XII: In 2011, 12 schools, 48th acad, 41st football, 31st money.
Big XII: In 2015, 10 schools, 59th acad, 42nd football, 34th money.
Defections have taken a huge toll, and I think they'll be unpleasantly surprised with the next contract.

Big East: In 2011, 8 schools, 51st acad, 49th football, 51st money.
Big East: In 2015, 13 schools, 79th acad, 81st football, 75th money.
The gap between the Big East and the big five has become a chasm. It's like an AAA baseball team after the parent club loses its entire starting lineup to dysentery.

Mountain West: In 2011, 9 schools, 78th acad, 71st football, 72nd money.
Mountain West: In 2015, 10 schools, 90th acad, 83rd football, 88th money.
Seems relatively stable now, though talks of being BCS level, humorous at the time, have stopped altogether.

WAC: In 2011, 9 schools, 97th acad, 79th football, 96th money.
WAC: In 2013, eliminated.

Conf USA: In 2011, 12 schools, 80th acad, 86th football, 83rd money.
Conf USA: In 2015, 14 schools, 94th acad, 95th football, 98th money.
It's kind of the clearing house for southern football now.

MAC: In 2011, 13 schools, 92nd acad, 84th football, 107th money.
MAC: In 2015, 13 schools, 91st acad, 83rd football, 110th money.
Substituting Temple for UMass worked well. It knows its brand and there isn't the desperate urge for FBS status amongst midwestern schools, like you see in the south. I applaud the restraint of the Missouri Valley Football Conference for remaining in FCS. It is stronger than the Sun Belt in many ways.

Sun Belt: In 2011, 9 schools, 112th acad, 102nd football, 111th money.
Sun Belt: In 2015, 8 schools, 114th acad, 107th football, 116th money.
These schools would probably be better off in the FCS.

Independents: In 2011, 3 schools.
Independents: In 2015, 5 schools.
The unique situations of the big religious schools and the service academies makes comparison of these schools using the above categories pointless.

[ISiddiqui]

Wow... nice work Jim!

[timmynausea]

Didn't the Big 12 just finalize their contract in September with the current lineup in place?