COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[Edward64]

The question to inoculate teachers as part of Phase 1a is brought to the forefront because of a GA community that did inoculate teachers, was reported on, and now has lost it vaccine pipeline until Jul 27 (no idea how Jul 27 was determined).

Even though my wife is a teacher, I agree with this move. There is no easy answers but GA and all other states (well, if not all, most of them) have agreed that teachers are in Phase 1b. And studies have shown that schools are not as badly impacted with infections as one (including me) would have assumed.

Ga. community pays price after moving teachers ahead in vaccination line

“If our goal is to keep kids on campus and learning, then strategically I think it’s a good move to have teachers vaccinated first,” said Jason Kouns, the principal of Elbert County High School.

Word of his school district’s feat — offering doses of the vaccine to any employee who wanted one — had spread among envious superintendents across the state in recent weeks. Finally, on Wednesday, the state cut off the vaccine supply to the community’s main vaccination provider until July 27.
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The Professional Association of Georgia Educators said it is essential to vaccinate educators to keep schools open. “We hope state leaders will prioritize teacher vaccination at the absolute first possible opportunity,” a spokeswoman said.

[Edward64]

Good news on another vaccine coming online soon with Novavax at 89% efficacy.

Fight brewing between UK and EU with AstraZeneca and who gets what, how many and by when. We think the US is messed up ...

EU publishes AstraZeneca contract amid coronavirus vaccine row | Euronews

It comes on the day the European Medicines Agency is expected to authorise use of the vaccine AstraZeneca developed with Oxford University. It would be the third cleared for use in the EU, after the BioNTech-Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

The European Commission has been locked in a dispute with the British-Swedish pharmaceutical company since it said it would deliver far smaller than expected supplies to EU member nations.

The European Union is looking at legal ways to guarantee the delivery of all the COVID-19 vaccine doses it bought from AstraZeneca and other drugmakers.
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The Commission President increased the pressure on AstraZeneca in her interview, reiterating the EU's view that the contract is unambiguous and its rejection of the company's reasons for cutting planned supplies by at least 60%.

"There is no plausible explanation. We want to be clear about that now," von der Leyen told Deutschlandfunk radio.

"There are binding orders and the contract is crystal clear," she said.

Von der Leyen dismissed the claims by AstraZeneca — which has blamed "glitches" in production — that under its contract with the EU it was only obliged to make "best efforts" to deliver supplies.

Nice graphic that shows vaccinations per 100,000. Seems like UK at 11,700 of 100,000 is getting much more done than rest of EU (not sure if because supply is greater or they are just doing a better job "jabbing").

COVID-19 vaccine: Which country in Europe has immunised the most people? | Euronews

I didn't find a consolidated per 100,000 for the US but found by state. Seems the majority of states are between 6-8,000 per 100,000 which is better than EU.

CDC COVID Data Tracker

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The question to inoculate teachers as part of Phase 1a is brought to the forefront because of a GA community that did inoculate teachers, was reported on, and now has lost it vaccine pipeline until Jul 27 (no idea how Jul 27 was determined).

Even though my wife is a teacher, I agree with this move. There is no easy answers but GA and all other states (well, if not all, most of them) have agreed that teachers are in Phase 1b. And studies have shown that schools are not as badly impacted with infections as one (including me) would have assumed.

Ga. community pays price after moving teachers ahead in vaccination line

I am missing something here.

Brooke McDowell, the administrator at the Medical Center, said her office made sure health care workers, first responders and nursing home workers had a chance to get vaccinated before inviting teachers to get shots in early January. The only remaining 1A+ group members were residents aged 65 and over, and she said the center was able to simultaneously dose them and teachers. Until this week, the center was inoculating nearly a hundred seniors a day, but that must now end, she said, noting that many seniors will be unable to drive to another county to get shots.

If I am reading this correctly, the first bolded part suggests that some of those people turned down the opportunity to get the vaccine but everyone who wanted the vaccine got it. Then, the second bolded part suggests that no seniors who want the vaccine have not been able to get it due to the teachers getting it instead. Who in the county was being hurt by vaccinating the teachers? Is the plan for all counties to wait for all people in Phase 1a(including those who are skeptical and are waiting) to get their vaccines until they move to the next phase? Are the counties supposed to give up what they have to other counties until the state says the Phase 1a folks are done? Or it just as simple as the state being pissed that the county went rogue?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I am missing something here.

If I am reading this correctly, the first bolded part suggests that some of those people turned down the opportunity to get the vaccine but everyone who wanted the vaccine got it. Then, the second bolded part suggests that no seniors who want the vaccine have not been able to get it due to the teachers getting it instead. Who in the county was being hurt by vaccinating the teachers? Is the plan for all counties to wait for all people in Phase 1a(including those who are skeptical and are waiting) to get their vaccines until they move to the next phase? Are the counties supposed to give up what they have to other counties until the state says the Phase 1a folks are done? Or it just as simple as the state being pissed that the county went rogue?

I read that and it sounded as if all Phase 1a that wanted vaccinations had been done (this needs to be confirmed).

But yeah, if a county truly had excess supply left over, return it to the "bank" who will then distribute the excess to other counties not as fortunate (e.g. including mine).

And yes, I am sure state was also PO that a county went rogue. If one goes rogue on this rule, I can easily see other counties going rogue with other things also.

[Edward64]

Some more good news (but not really for western countries but others). I'm sure western countries will favor the other vaccines with better efficacy than J&J's 66-85% range.

My guess is J&J will have more success in developing nations along with the Chinese vaccine. Still not a bad thing if the US can somehow help with manufacturing, distribution & cost.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/healt...lts/index.html

Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 single-shot vaccine was shown to be 66% effective in preventing moderate and severe disease in a global Phase 3 trial, but 85% efficacy against severe disease, the company announced Friday.

The vaccine was 72% effective against moderate and severe disease in the US, the company said.

It's a striking difference from vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, and it may give pause to people uncertain about which vaccine to get or when they can get one. The vaccines already on the market in the US are about 95% effective overall against symptomatic Covid-19, with perhaps even higher efficacy against severe cases.

But experts say the Johnson & Johnson vaccine will still be useful against the pandemic in the United States and around the world.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I read that and it sounded as if all Phase 1a that wanted vaccinations had been done (this needs to be confirmed).

But yeah, if a county truly had excess supply left over, return it to the "bank" who will then distribute the excess to other counties not as fortunate (e.g. including mine).

And yes, I am sure state was also PO that a county went rogue. If one goes rogue on this rule, I can easily see other counties going rogue with other things also.

Ok. Well then, it is political decision and not a triage issue as the governor's office has says. Not a big deal as we all acknowledge the political nature of all of this.

I am curious about how the redistribution of the vaccines is working. From what I understand, the vaccine has a 30 day shelf life. If I have possession of the vaccine and I am "done" vaccinating everyone who wants one in the current phase, when do I make the decision that those who don't want it at this point in time are SOL and send my excess to another county? At the 20 day mark? 25 day mark? I am sure there are people who were dead set against getting the vaccine on January 1st who have decided they want to be vaccinated today. Why would I give away "their" vaccine? Also do I send my excess supply of vaccines on say day 25 to a county that might let it expire before they use it?

Yes, I am treating the vaccine is the same way we treat traditional government resources. I don't see why the local counties would look at it any other way. The quicker they get the people in their county vaccinated the quicker their county get back to normalcy right?

[henry296]

Many places have moved on to the next phase. I assuming if I have no more people in this phase I can open it up to the next group. If people from earlier phases change their mind, they can get in line with the next group.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Ok. Well then, it is political decision and not a triage issue as the governor's office has says. Not a big deal as we all acknowledge the political nature of all of this.

I don't see it as solely a political decision or triage. I think both is true and "triage" is applicable here (e.g. for entire state)

I am curious about how the redistribution of the vaccines is working. From what I understand, the vaccine has a 30 day shelf life. If I have possession of the vaccine and I am "done" vaccinating everyone who wants one in the current phase, when do I make the decision that those who don't want it at this point in time are SOL and send my excess to another county? At the 20 day mark? 25 day mark? I am sure there are people who were dead set against getting the vaccine on January 1st who have decided they want to be vaccinated today. Why would I give away "their" vaccine? Also do I send my excess supply of vaccines on say day 25 to a county that might let it expire before they use it?

Assuming they are done with everyone that wants Phase 1a, that county made a decision at a point in time to vaccinate into Phase 1b. I contend, at that point, they tell whoever is coordinating it GA state wide "hey, we've vaccinated all that wants to be vaccinate. We have 1,000 vials left, let us keep 100 in reserve in case there are late stragglers but here's your 900 back to redistribute to other counties".

Yes, I am treating the vaccine is the same way we treat traditional government resources. I don't see why the local counties would look at it any other way. The quicker they get the people in their county vaccinated the quicker their county get back to normalcy right?

I see it differently. I may be wrong but assume there was an agreement ahead of time to follow state rules and state rules say we are currently in Phase 1a for X populations. It wasn't "here's 10,000 vials county, do as you wish".

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by henry296

Many places have moved on to the next phase. I assuming if I have no more people in this phase I can open it up to the next group. If people from earlier phases change their mind, they can get in line with the next group.

This may be true for other states. I may be wrong but apparently not in that county in question and definitely not in my county just yet. I have honestly not read anything that says GA has moved to Phase 1b.

[JAG]

Minnesota has given a first dose to 10+% of its population (counting only folks 16 years of age or older). Considering this should be the slowest part of the rollout, that doesn't seem too bad.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I don't see it as solely a political decision or triage. I think both is true and "triage" is applicable here (e.g. for entire state)



Assuming they are done with everyone that wants Phase 1a, that county made a decision at a point in time to vaccinate into Phase 1b. I contend, at that point, they tell whoever is coordinating it GA state wide "hey, we've vaccinated all that wants to be vaccinate. We have 1,000 vials left, let us keep 100 in reserve in case there are late stragglers but here's your 900 back to redistribute to other counties".



I see it differently. I may be wrong but assume there was an agreement ahead of time to follow state rules and state rules say we are currently in Phase 1a for X populations. It wasn't "here's 10,000 vials county, do as you wish".

I am sure you were just throwing numbers out there, but if we use those numbers than there is a problem with the distribution plan. There is no way they should have 1,000 vials left if 100 vials in reserve is enough to deal with late stragglers.

Beyond that, those stragglers still have priority to get the vaccine while the county is in phase 1A. Even if they come in on the last day of Phase 1A, they should still have access to the vaccine and not have that access given away to someone in another county. If the vaccine is going to be redistributed, it needs to be publicize that X number of days after a shipment of vaccine arrives, we are sending it to another county because after 30 days it is no good to anyone.

If you are asking me, I would prefer the vaccine go to the people in that phase in other counties. Having the vaccine expired is unconscionable. I just don't know too many local governments who are voluntarily sacrificing such a valuable resource to another county in that way when they have a local need. This is not like sandbags. A compromise could be to allow Phase 1A residents from other counties to come in and get vaccinated. But again the reality of local government is about taking care of its residents first all the time.

I get why the state would be upset with the county. I just don't know how not giving the county the vaccine for 6 months for other residents benefits anyone.

[PilotMan]

My mom got her first shot yesterday in KY. She's considered in group 1B. I will be in 1C, which should be rolling out in the next couple weeks. It was a pretty smooth process all in all.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I get why the state would be upset with the county. I just don't know how not giving the county the vaccine for 6 months for other residents benefits anyone.

This I agree with. Seems childishly punitive.

Replace those officials, put a watchdog over them etc. Many over avenues to take before not giving them anymore till Jul which is ridiculous.

[Edward64]

Caught only a bit of the Coronavirus press briefing today.

The 2 sign language interpreters for Psaki and the task force seem to be having great fun with animatic facial expressions.

[Edward64]

Stupid question (I think) to our medical professionals here. Is there a reason why these vaccines can't be produced in like an epi-pen where anyone can inject themselves?

Probably too late now to change manufacturing and ramp up epi-pen "syringes" but theoretically, could this have been done with early enough planning? e.g. for next time, money won't be a problem.

[Butter]

Generally speaking you don't want people injecting themselves if it can be helped. Not to mention the temperature at which these must be stored at would probably preclude an easy Epipen-like production. Not a medical professional but married to one.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Stupid question (I think) to our medical professionals here. Is there a reason why these vaccines can't be produced in like an epi-pen where anyone can inject themselves?

Probably too late now to change manufacturing and ramp up epi-pen "syringes" but theoretically, could this have been done with early enough planning? e.g. for next time, money won't be a problem.

Because people are stupid.

Not trying to be snarky, that is just a fact. People drank aquarium cleaner because they thought it would help prevent Covid. There is a section of the population that would double their dosage thinking it would help, or give it to their 8 year old, or ingest it, etc...

[Edward64]

Okay, I can see the argument about not wanting people to inject themselves or misuse it, and of course, the storage requirements.

[Edward64]

A little more on the EU-AstraZeneca fight. Interesting read. Basically EU was late in approving/signing contracts so AstraZeneca is doing like first-in-first-out. But says EU could possibly "force" AstraZeneca to supply EU first which will cause many problems if other countries follow suit (e.g. in their own best self-interest).

Article is making it sound that AZ is right. But any members here have an opinion here?

The EU-AstraZeneca vaccine fight, explained - Vox

The final regulation is expected to be published Saturday, but it will require vaccine makers to notify the EU when exporting coronavirus vaccines to most countries outside the European Union; more than 90 countries are exempt, but not the United States or the United Kingdom. Individual EU member-states will then have to authorize those exports, and can block them if they believe companies exporting the vaccines aren’t making good on their own delivery deals with the EU.

It’s not an outright ban on vaccine exports, and they are only expected to last until March, but experts and observers worry it sets a troubling precedent.

There are now several vaccines available, and more promising candidates on the way. But the EU-AstraZeneca feud is the latest sign that global cooperation and solidarity on vaccine allocation is failing, said Rebecca Weintraub, faculty director of the Global Health Delivery Project at Harvard University.

“This is vaccine nationalism 101,” she said.
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The European Union did finally strike those deals, with AstraZeneca and other vaccine makers, but it was a later in signing that AstraZeneca contract than others, including the United Kingdom.
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The EU, though, has insisted that under the terms of the contract, AstraZeneca must use its manufacturing facilities in Britain to supply the EU with its share of doses. But AstraZeneca says it must first fulfill its obligations to the United Kingdom before it can supply Europe or anywhere else. Right now, it’s delivering about 2 million doses per week to the UK.
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The EU may perceive this decision to be in its self-interest. But if other countries follow suit, it could backfire — on the EU, and the rest of the world. Because it will almost certainly prolong the pandemic.

Vox link also has a table for # of people vaccinated per 100.

Israel, UAE, Serbia, UK, Iceland, US. Israel is far ahead; UAE and Serbia and UK are pretty decent. Iceland and US are neck to neck.

Okay, I get Israel, UAE (money), UK, US. But wonder what Serbia and Iceland did right to get on the list.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

My mom got her first shot yesterday in KY. She's considered in group 1B. I will be in 1C, which should be rolling out in the next couple weeks. It was a pretty smooth process all in all.

How did you guys know it was in Phase 1B?

Did you check a website daily? Dr. told her? Local newspaper?

And did all counties in KY move lock step with each other e.g. the counties went into Phase 1B together?

[PilotMan]

She had heard it on the news, but the state also lets you sign up for text and email notifications and they will let you know when you can sign up too.

Pretty sure the whole state is in unison since the vaccination sites are laid out by region.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Vox link also has a table for # of people vaccinated per 100.

Israel, UAE, Serbia, UK, Iceland, US. Israel is far ahead; UAE and Serbia and UK are pretty decent. Iceland and US are neck to neck.

Okay, I get Israel, UAE (money), UK, US. But wonder what Serbia and Iceland did right to get on the list.

Serbia and Iceland haven't vaccinated more per 100 than those others in total, their current 7-day daily average per 100 is just higher. It looks like they both started vaccinating later and are now at a strong pace. (Though they are doing something right - they're just still well behind the U.S. and U.K. in total dosages per 100).

[cartman]

I posted in the other thread that I might have gotten exposed while visiting my uncle at his acute care center. Just got the results back, and yep, I have it.

[MIJB#19]

C'mon, guys. Can you really compare the vaccination plan of a country like Iceland with the plan in the USA as a country? That's not just apples and oranges, that's like comparing a blueberry to a pumpkin. I mean, roughly, Iceland has a population the size of a city like Cleveland or New Orleans, spread around the outside borders on an island the size of a state like Ohio or Louisiana. Still, Iceland has a very high GPD per capita, on par with the USA's, which would assume they have the resources financially, yet working with a very different kind of nationwide health care situation, and completely other logistic challenges: like how to get those vaccines imported onto the island.

[Brian Swartz]

I think you can compare how different countries are doing relative to their population size. The logistics of every country are important, certainly, but it's also on each country to have or not have a medical system/plan that is appropriate to those concerns.

[sterlingice]

MIJB#19, Anything to share about the Netherlands COVID riots?

I didn't even know it happened until I saw this article linked from another article (talking about GME, of all things):
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/...are-a-bad-omen

SI

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by cartman

I posted in the other thread that I might have gotten exposed while visiting my uncle at his acute care center. Just got the results back, and yep, I have it.

Ugh. Sorry cartman. I hope you are asymptomatic.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

MIJB#19, Anything to share about the Netherlands COVID riots?

I didn't even know it happened until I saw this article linked from another article (talking about GME, of all things):
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/...are-a-bad-omen

SI

Not really... It feels like a waste of time to give these obtuse ignorant brainless juvenile people the attention they're provokingly seeking.
Anyway, previous weekend a 9 PM curfew was enforced. It appears to have drawn out bored 14-25 year-olds wannabees looking for drama. And then what happened is the kind of stupidity that ensues after the Phillies claim to have done something noteworthy, but the only way people outside their own homeland will take note is after the moronic part of the crowd burns down their own hometown.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Ugh. Sorry cartman. I hope you are asymptomatic.

I took the test yesterday morning, and started having symptoms last night, which would have been right at 5 days since exposure. So far it is light fever and body aches. When I woke up this morning and got the results, I wasn't surprised.

[Edward64]

Sorry to hear.

What's the next steps for you? Spoke with doc and have some sort of treatment plan or wait and see if it gets worse?

[IlliniCub]

I got my first dose of Pfizer earlier this week. Sore arm, but that's common for me on shots. Other than that nothing really.

[NobodyHere]

I wish cartman well too, but I also can't help but notice his forum tag is "Death Herald"

Just sayin

[JPhillips]

Take care, cartman.

[Kodos]

I too have a sore arm from a vaccine, but it was the shingles vaccine.

[Edward64]

Good task force update today. They seem to be holding them M-W-F at 11am ET. Having 3 updates a week update forces everyone to be more diligent & accountable since they know there will be questions/challenges. Sorely missing from previous admin.

1) Easy to use test kits. Only 100,000 per month right now but supposedly ramp up into millions per month by end of year. Don't think it'll help too much in the near future

2) Some statistics on "equity". Apparently, there are many more blacks/hispanics ending up in hospitals/fatality rates than whites/asians. Task force said data is incomplete right now (e.g. race is not being reported for many yet).

The task force is going to try make this more equitable somehow. They didn't speculate as to why there was this discrepancy but I think assumption is less easy access to healthcare.

3) Current plan to inoculate everyone by end of summer does not factor in the 2 new vaccines. The 2 new ones still need to be approved, data reviewed etc. Not sure if the 2 new ones can significantly impact current timeline.

4) They say because production & distribution of Moderna/Pfizer is more predictable now. This means providers should be giving everyone first shots (not holding out to 2nd shots) because when the time comes for the 2nd shots, there will be more available.

TBH, this sounds less than convincing to me. But I do agree with get everyone the first shot even if 2nd shot is not forthcoming due to supply chain issues.

5) Even though 2 new vaccines seem to have lower efficacy, Fauci stressed that both seem to prevent serious hospitalizations. So definitely still worth getting.

The updates & questions are specific to vaccines, variants, supply etc. but there's not been any discussions on therapies (that I've heard). I would like to know if there are more therapies coming on line, what changes to treatment is recommended etc.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The question to inoculate teachers as part of Phase 1a is brought to the forefront because of a GA community that did inoculate teachers, was reported on, and now has lost it vaccine pipeline until Jul 27 (no idea how Jul 27 was determined).

Even though my wife is a teacher, I agree with this move. There is no easy answers but GA and all other states (well, if not all, most of them) have agreed that teachers are in Phase 1b. And studies have shown that schools are not as badly impacted with infections as one (including me) would have assumed.

Ga. community pays price after moving teachers ahead in vaccination line

I follow a couple of people on Twitter who are in VA and there's a storyline going which is fascinating. I'm probably only seeing one side of it, but the basic gist is - teachers are getting vaccinated in certain counties as part of this early "first responders" group, but they are currently virtual and the teachers union is refusing to agree to go back until kids are vaccinated and the county rate is 0%. So the question is, why the fresh f*ck are you jumping to the head of the line when you aren't actually taking any greater risks than the rest of the general working population?

[Atocep]

My personal take, and this doesn't necessarily have anything to do with teachers specifically, is that were spending to much time and effort trying to get shots to the right people rather than getting shots to people. Once you've run out of people in a a phase in an area willing to get a shot then they should immediately get it to people in the next phase. IMO, it's more important to get shots to as many as possible in this scenario than waste time shipping vaccines around (and risk losing them) trying to find eligible people willing to get the shot.

[molson]

I find the debates over who is more worthy of vaccines exhausting. It really doesn't matter. If we can get them all out to whoever wants them in 4-5 months or whatever, let's try to skip as much of the time, resources, and expenses associated with ranking people as possible and maybe shave a few weeks off of the total time for deployment.

Maybe the most efficient category to separate people would have been age. That's it. Get the vaccine out to as many pharmacies as possible, rather then adding the layer of funneling them through specific employers and other groups, and then everybody who is X years old gets first dibs for this particular time period, then we move on to the next age group.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by molson

I find the debates over who is more worthy of vaccines exhausting. It really doesn't matter. If we can get them all out to whoever wants them in 4-5 months or whatever, let's try to skip as much of the time, resources, and expenses associated with ranking people as possible and maybe shave a few weeks off of the total time for deployment.

Maybe the most efficient category to separate people would have been age. That's it. Get the vaccine out to as many pharmacies as possible, rather then adding the layer of funneling them through specific employers and other groups, and then everybody who is X years old gets first dibs for this particular time period, then we move on to the next age group.

I've come around to thinking age+ would work. Set the age wherever and then add other groups, responders, teachers, etc., if needed. The key is making it easy to use all of the vaccine. Now that NY has gone to 65+ and others, there is more demand than supply.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by molson

...let's try to skip as much of the time, resources, and expenses associated with ranking people as possible...

I know what thread you put this in, but you could have attached these few words to sentences to posts in so many other threads and it would be appropriate. But alas, that is what we do.

[cuervo72]

It would be great if they could come up with models which determined application to which group(s) would most dampen the spread and ultimately deaths. But, as we have no real numbers or tracking or anything like that, just give it to anyone.

(I mean, sure -- old people are the most at risk. At the same time, protecting those who have already lived the most seems almost like giving stimulus relief to those with the most money. Callous, but do you save whatever time a 95yo has left, or a 50yo? It would also make some sense to me to vaccinate younger people -- say, college students -- than someone like me who works from home and never bothers to go out just because the younger people might interact (i.e. spread) with others more.)

[Ksyrup]

It feels like if they studied this, it would turn out like the studies on how best to load an airplane - nothing is really much better than anything else, even though logically you'd think certain ways would be better than others.

[cuervo72]

Well....

MythBusters Episode 222: Airplane Boarding

[Ksyrup]

Exacfly. Four of the 6 were within a minute of each other, and the one that people always say should logically be the best way (back to front) was the slowest..

[Edward64]

Ageism.

[bhlloy]

I think there is a valid argument about what the goal is though right... to protect people or to get this to a place where we stop the spread and gain some kind of herd immunity against it?

Because if the former of course 96 year old grannie should get it first... but she’s pretty much the worst bet for the latter. Chances are she lives at home or in a home and sees 3-5 people a week. So now she’s safe, but we’ve just inoculated a person who wasn’t going to spread it anyway. Where as maybe you look at that 23 barista who hasn’t stopped working since March, if she’s truly a candidate for covid you could be doing a lot of going by giving her a 90+ percent chance of never catching it at all.

I think that’s a conversation we can have without talking about death squads or ageism. I also wonder how the J&J vaccine with lower prevent but pretty much guaranteed mild illness at worst changes this conversation - logically you’d think that would be the one to give older at risk groups, but by then they will all have had it anyway.

[cartman]

This is purely anecdotal, but here's the scenario with me and my uncle. (real life, not the song)

I heard from my cousin this morning, and my uncle is no longer showing any symptoms. He never was hospitalized, or even had to go on a ventilator. I was really worried about him, being as frail as he currently is, getting hammered by the virus. As for me, my fever broke yesterday, which is about 5 days ahead of schedule.

He did get the first of the two vaccine shots about 10 days before I visited. Maybe that provided enough of a boost to knock down the effect of the virus for him, and weakened what was passed on to me.

[Edward64]

Approx 32M vaccinations now in the US. No pattern of deaths that I've read other than the 23 in Norway?

Adverse long-term effects is still (of course) TBD.

I like the latest news of Feds shipping directly to the pharmacies. It looks as if vaccine production isn't the problem now/soon but really the "last mile". It's frakking ridiculous that my county doesn't have a better system of notifying people other than manually checking the website everyday. A simple sign-up for email/text notification when the next phase is up would be so simple.

[JPhillips]

Stunning to me how quickly the GOP has gone anti-vax

New Monmouth poll on taking coronavirus vaccine:

Democrats:
64% as soon as allowed
16% see how it goes
10% likely never

Republicans:
35% as soon as allowed
17% see how it goes
42% likely never

[Edward64]

Back to regularly scheduled non-political Coronavirus news.

Watched the task force briefing today. It was pretty boring but Fauci basically said there is evidence that teachers/schools are not that bad for infections. I personally find that hard to believe but found below article (other articles are similar).

In wife's county, school is back to in person. Some kids can ask for remote but majority are back. So I guess Fauci is somewhat reassuring.

(From The Atlantic)

Since early last month, I’ve been working with a group of data scientists at the technology company Qualtrics, as well as with school-principal and superintendent associations, to collect data on COVID-19 in schools. (See more on that project here.) Our data on almost 200,000 kids in 47 states from the last two weeks of September revealed an infection rate of 0.13 percent among students and 0.24 percent among staff. That’s about 1.3 infections over two weeks in a school of 1,000 kids, or 2.2 infections over two weeks in a group of 1,000 staff. Even in high-risk areas of the country, the student rates were well under half a percent. (You can see all the data here.)

School-based data from other sources show similarly low rates. Texas reported 1,490 cases among students for the week ending on September 27, with 1,080,317 students estimated at school—a rate of about 0.14 percent. The staff rate was lower, about 0.10 percent.

The other thing Fauci said was while UK has good data about just 1 shot (get everyone 1 shot first before worrying about the 2nd shot), the US will still follow the science and press for 2 shots. The obvious question that wasn't asked is why doesn't US ask to look at UK data (or try replicate it in the US) and confirm that 1 shot first approach is good.

The task force is kinda bypassing this issue by saying "yes, do the 1 shot for everyone, don't worry about 2nd shot because supply is ramping up and you'll get it in time". It's the supply is ramping up and you'll get it in time that I personally don't feel confident in.