Werewolf CXXVII -- The Godfather, VILLAGERS WIN

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by JAG

I'm a bit surprised about mckerney getting suspicion although I admit his late vote shift doesn't look too good. Passing the canoli to a villager elevates him in my book, and in my opinion he practically revealed as one of two roles, but I don't think it would be wise for me to say more than that depending on which it is.

I'm not sure how much I'll be around today so I have no problem with revealing it in my defense now being I am essentially vanilla now. With the way discussion was going it seemed like I'd probably have a few votes on my soon if I hadn't said anything, may as well clear the air on what I can now.

[J23]

Well I guess the above is moot now.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by J23

What evidence do we have to support Mckerney as a villager? I'm trying to figure out how pressure seemed to disappear from him after being in the running for a bit on day1, despite voting for both villagers that were lynched. Was there something w/ the cannoli or gun or something I'm not recalling?

With the canoli if you believe me that I passed it and that JAG is a villager, then I don't see how I'd be clear. It wouldn't make any sense for a wolf to pass it to a villager. Also, if JAG and I were both wolves it wouldn't make any sense for me to come forward that I had passed it to him.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Darth is just playing a strange drive by game and I'd feel more comfortable if he's gone. We can't get a read on him if he's checking in once a day and voting early and it seems like that's a pretty solid way for a furry to avoid attracting any attention...

I do hate just blindly voting for people because they aren't around much but if by halfway through day 3 they haven't participated or contributed anything, it almost seems better to get rid of them now so we won't get to the end and be voting on a bunch of people who have very little history.

This is quite similar to my line of thinking at this point as well.

[The Jackal]

I still think Jeff is a viable option, but DV has been pinging me as well.

VOTE DV

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by J23

What evidence do we have to support Mckerney as a villager? I'm trying to figure out how pressure seemed to disappear from him after being in the running for a bit on day1, despite voting for both villagers that were lynched. Was there something w/ the cannoli or gun or something I'm not recalling?

Yeah, that's basically it. Assuming JAG is on the level and is villager, mckerney passed him one of the items to use. So unless there's a crazy wolf play in that sequence somewhere or somebody is lying and hasn't got called out on it, I think that vouches for mckerney pretty well.

I have mckerney and tyke on the same level, in that the way Day 1 went down looked bad for (at least) one of them but I just haven't got a wolf vibe from either of them since. They've generally been responsive and have been putting solid reasoning behind their votes and I think we've just been unlucky with hitting villagers with the 2 lynches so far. I don't want to get to a situation where we purge everybody who made an unlucky vote in the first couple of days and are left with a bunch of less active players and are completely in the dark.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I have mckerney and tyke on the same level, in that the way Day 1 went down looked bad for (at least) one of them but I just haven't got a wolf vibe from either of them since. They've generally been responsive and have been putting solid reasoning behind their votes and I think we've just been unlucky with hitting villagers with the 2 lynches so far. I don't want to get to a situation where we purge everybody who made an unlucky vote in the first couple of days and are left with a bunch of less active players and are completely in the dark.

I can understand not wanting to vote out people being active but eventually we have to go on voting record not how often people are posting in the thread. I understand what you are saying you do not want to be left alone in the game with people who aren't posting but at the same time the crusade to lynch the quiet players is one we can't proceed down after today or tomorrow.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I have mckerney and tyke on the same level, in that the way Day 1 went down looked bad for (at least) one of them but I just haven't got a wolf vibe from either of them since. They've generally been responsive and have been putting solid reasoning behind their votes and I think we've just been unlucky with hitting villagers with the 2 lynches so far. I don't want to get to a situation where we purge everybody who made an unlucky vote in the first couple of days and are left with a bunch of less active players and are completely in the dark.

Being tyke and I have managed to make the same votes at the same time two days in a row that sounds about right.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by jeff061

And I'm not going to be the only one to champion it. I'll stop after this.

I'd recommend people debate Jag's action. We are in a good position and we are risking throwing it away. I don't think we are in any position to take 2 shots in the dark, in our position(wolf day night 2) we should be steadily moving towards the win.

Not making knee jerk moves to throw the edge away. If people oppose him and he does it anyways...well at least you'll have your next target lined up.

Lynch me if you have to, at least we'll only be down 1 villager instead of a potential 2. I'd strongly reccomend looking elsewhere though .

The thing about taking you out with the gun instead of through the lynch today it looked like you where going to get the majority of the vote anyways by a large margin depending on how the day went today. This shifts discussion else where so what I think Jag is hoping for is getting better voting records for the day.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Zinto

The thing about taking you out with the gun instead of through the lynch today it looked like you where going to get the majority of the vote anyways by a large margin depending on how the day went today. This shifts discussion else where so what I think Jag is hoping for is getting better voting records for the day.

Great, is it worth 2 dead villagers by our hands and 1 by the wolves? .

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Great, is it worth 2 dead villagers by our hands and 1 by the wolves? .

You're making the assumption we don't lynch a wolf/another wolf in your place!

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I'm not sure how much I'll be around today so I have no problem with revealing it in my defense now being I am essentially vanilla now. With the way discussion was going it seemed like I'd probably have a few votes on my soon if I hadn't said anything, may as well clear the air on what I can now.

I've got to give you props for being brave and revealing as Appolina, given the possibility that this might explain the day one deaths of CR and mauboy. However it also seems like the sort of role that might not be in the game and, therefore, available for the wolves to claim. If people really have decided that there are still four wolves in the game and they all have the bad roles listed then we should all just mass-reveal now while we have numbers in our favour and we'll win the game. Personally I don't buy there being five wolves at the start - that's a 3.1 ratio. With the chances for wolves to manipulate extra kills if that's true I don't mind losing because we never had a chance in the first place.

We don't actually know that mckerney handed the item onto JAG either. It's possible he knew that Lathum had it and surmise that it randomed to JAG, so to buy trust he claimed that he passed it on.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Great, is it worth 2 dead villagers by our hands and 1 by the wolves? .

Honestly if you end up not being a wolf than our day 2 voting records are pretty much useless and if you win the vote today by a decent margin and turn up good it would be two days wasted. I understand the fact that losing 3 villagers tonight would be terrible and we will probably lose the game but let us hope it does not come to that.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

You're making the assumption we don't lynch a wolf/another wolf in your place!

Not really. That's a move you do and a risk you take in desperation. It makes sense then.

However now we are slightly in the lead. If this risk fails we will be way far behind. There is no reason to take 2 shots tonight with early game information.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I've got to give you props for being brave and revealing as Appolina, given the possibility that this might explain the day one deaths of CR and mauboy. However it also seems like the sort of role that might not be in the game and, therefore, available for the wolves to claim. If people really have decided that there are still four wolves in the game and they all have the bad roles listed then we should all just mass-reveal now while we have numbers in our favour and we'll win the game. Personally I don't buy there being five wolves at the start - that's a 3.1 ratio. With the chances for wolves to manipulate extra kills if that's true I don't mind losing because we never had a chance in the first place.

I know that there was some suspicion about the Appolina role after the deaths of mauboy and Chief, and it may not look good with me voting for mau. I honestly wasn't able to communicate with him, nor did I know he was Michael. If people still don't believe that then as I said before, at least we'll be losing someone who doesn't have any abilities they can use that could help us.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

We don't actually know that mckerney handed the item onto JAG either. It's possible he knew that Lathum had it and surmise that it randomed to JAG, so to buy trust he claimed that he passed it on.

True, you don't know for sure based on my claim alone that I was the one who passed it off. I don't think it'd be a good move for a wolf to come out and say he passed if off if he didn't though. If it wasn't Danny or Lathum who had it yesterday whoever did have it could come forward, and even if it was one of them Clemenza could still come forward and say he never gave it too me. If any of that happened they'd basically be confirmed as a wolf.

[Autumn]

I don't think we should assume passing the canoli makes McKerney good (there's a phrase I didn't expect to ever utter). Whoever passed it to McKerney knows he did. If McKerney passes it on to a wolf and they eventually make a kill with it, we'll eventually follow that trail of crumbs to McKerney. I think a wolf most likely tries to play the good villager if they end up with one of those, and does things publicly. It earns them trust and for all we know Jeff's a villager about to get plugged with it, so why would the wolves do it behind our backs and risk being caught?

I feel good about JAG, and so I don't expect this is a double-wolf ploy but I don't see any reason to exonerate McKerney based on it. The alternative was to pass it to a wolf and then play dumb when someone called him on it eventually?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I know that there was some suspicion about the Appolina role after the deaths of mauboy and Chief, and it may not look good with me voting for mau. I honestly wasn't able to communicate with him, nor did I know he was Michael. If people still don't believe that then as I said before, at least we'll be losing someone who doesn't have any abilities they can use that could help us.

This I believe, I suspected earlier that this was the case with those roles. McKerney, could the other two communicate at the beginning of the game, do you know?

I don't believe, however, Appollonia is a role that's automatically good. With the number of roles we've seen killed I have to agree that they're likely all in game, however.

[Autumn]

Does anyone have a vote count?

[jeff061]

Unvote Darth

Vote Jag

I don't know if Jag is a wolf. I only know I am. He wants to unilaterally kill a villager(I realize this is more clear cut for me). If he is lynched a villager(perhaps 2) is definitely saved and a wolf is potentially lynched.

I honestly can't think of a better scenario for us if he is gung-ho about using his item.

[jeff061]

I don't know if Jag is a wolf. I only know I am.

Ha brilliant, I am NOT.

[JAG]

I don't think it exonerates him, but I don't see why he would be a top suspect with other leads that are worth following.

[Autumn]

Well, my problem, JAG, is I don't have any other leads :-) Jeff was my vote today and other than a vibe on McK, I don't have anything meaty.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Ha brilliant, I am NOT.

Hah, well that didn't help.

[JAG]

If you think all the roles are in the game, you would have to think there are six wolves if you suspect another good/bad role claim to be a traitor. I think Narcizo is right that a mass reveal would probably win for us, but as I stated D1, that's not how I'd prefer to play even if it would be a technical win for us.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

This I believe, I suspected earlier that this was the case with those roles. McKerney, could the other two communicate at the beginning of the game, do you know?

I don't believe, however, Appollonia is a role that's automatically good. With the number of roles we've seen killed I have to agree that they're likely all in game, however.

I only know that I couldn't communicate with Michael but would be notified when I could. I was not given any clue what the restrictions on the communication between Michael and Kay were.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, my problem, JAG, is I don't have any other leads :-) Jeff was my vote today and other than a vibe on McK, I don't have anything meaty.

I think we have to operate for this vote as if Jeff is a wolf. That brings some clarity to the D2 voting. If hes not, we're basically at square one other than one lead I would have for the next day. But obviously I feel pretty confident I am right or I wouldn't have pursued this course.

I'm a little more neutral on DV than most, but I don't have much argument in his favor.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Day One

EF votes Saldana 120 (1)
Narcizo votes Mckerney 122 (1)
J23 votes Chief Rum 132 (1)
JAG votes Mckerney 148 (2)
Lathum votes tyketime 153 (1)
Autumn votes tyketime 160 (2)
bhlloy votes mauboy1 161 (1)
jeff061 votes mauboy1 170 (2)
mauboy1 votes tyketime 176 (3)
mckerney votes tyketime 178 (4)
narcizo unvotes mckerney (1)
narcizo votes mauboy1 (3)
autumn unvotes tyketime 184 (3)
autumn votes mckerney 185 (2)
tyketime votes mauboy 193 (4)
mckerney unvotes tyketime 194 (2)
mckerney votes mauboy 194 (5)
chief votes tyketime (3)
J23 unvotes chief rum (0)
J23 votes tyketime (4)
saldana votes mauboy (6)
martind votes mckerney (3)
zinto votes mauboy (7)

Day Two

Zinto votes Jeff (242) 1
CrimsonFox votes Tyke (289) 1
Tyke votes CrimsonFox (290) 1
Eaglefan voted Saldana (294) 1
Darth Vilus voted Tyke (295) 2
Narcizo voted Sal (298) 2
Danny voted Tyke (315) 3
Jackal voted Jeff (316) 2
Bhlloy voted CrimsonFox (317) 2 (3 Tyke, 2 CF, 2 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
McKerney voted Jeff (322) 3 (3 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 CF, 2 Saldana)
Autumn voted CrimsonFox (336) 3 (3 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 3 CF, 2 Saldana)
Jeff voted Tyke (338) 4 (4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 3 CF, 2 Saldana)
JAG voted CrimsonFox (341) 4 (4 Tyke, 4 CF, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Lathum voted CrimsonFox (347) 5 (5 CF, 4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Tyke unvoted CrimsonFox (354) 4 (4 CF, 4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
CrimsonFox unvoted tyke (381) 3 (4 CF, 3 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Saldana voted tyke (384) 4 (4 CF, 4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
JAG unvoted CrimsonFox (391) 3 (4 Tyke, 3 CF, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Bhlloy unvoted CrimsonFox (400) 2 (4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 CF, 2 Saldana)
Bhlloy voted Saldana (400) 3 (4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 3 Saldana, 2 CF)
J23 voted Jeff (427) 4 (4 Tyke, 4 Jeff, 3 Saldana, 2 CF)
Lathum unvotes CrimsonFox (444) 1 (4 Tyke, 4 Jeff, 3 Saldana, 1 CF)
Lathum votes Saldana (444) 4 (4 Tyke, 4 Jeff, 4 Saldana, 1 CF)
Jeff unvotes Tyke (453) 3 (4 Jeff, 4 Saldana, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
Jeff votes Sal (453) 5 (5 Saldana, 4 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
CrimsonFox votes Jeff (462) 5 (5 Saldana, 5 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
MartinD votes Jeff (463) 6 (6 Jeff, 5 Saldana, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
Tyke votes Sal (479) 6 (6 Jeff, 6 Saldana, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
McKerney unvotes jeff (482) 5
McKerney votes Sal (482) 7 (7 Saldana, 5 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
JAG votes Jeff (495) 6 (7 Saldana, 6 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
Autumn unvotes CrimsonFox (501) 0
Autumn votes saldana (501) 8 (8 Saldana, 6 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)

Let's get this back up on the current page. I've added the vote counts for day 2, I'll try to do day 1 at some point.

Looking at day 2, if Jeff is a wolf I think that paints J23 and CF and Martin well, paints McKerney poorly. JAG gets a mixed review, he votes CF earlier in the day at a crucial juncture, but then votes Jeff back up towards the end.

If Jeff is a villager, day 2's not too handy unless Tyketime is bad. If Tyke is a wolf, Jeff looks good with his vote.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't think we should assume passing the canoli makes McKerney good (there's a phrase I didn't expect to ever utter). Whoever passed it to McKerney knows he did. If McKerney passes it on to a wolf and they eventually make a kill with it, we'll eventually follow that trail of crumbs to McKerney. I think a wolf most likely tries to play the good villager if they end up with one of those, and does things publicly. It earns them trust and for all we know Jeff's a villager about to get plugged with it, so why would the wolves do it behind our backs and risk being caught?

I feel good about JAG, and so I don't expect this is a double-wolf ploy but I don't see any reason to exonerate McKerney based on it. The alternative was to pass it to a wolf and then play dumb when someone called him on it eventually?

For that to happen, either CF is also a wolf and they are setting up JAG to use it or lose it, or CF isn't a wolf and McKerney just happened to choose the same guy that CF was thinking of and his plan worked to absolute perfection. It's a huge stretch either way. If McKerney passes it to a random villager who doesn't have the other item, none of this comes out for days and the wolves just wasted an extra kill for no reason.

I'm pretty comfortable with saying this exonerates McKerney, unless CF shows up as wolf at some point.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

I think we have to operate for this vote as if Jeff is a wolf. That brings some clarity to the D2 voting. If hes not, we're basically at square one other than one lead I would have for the next day. But obviously I feel pretty confident I am right or I wouldn't have pursued this course.

I'm a little more neutral on DV than most, but I don't have much argument in his favor.

The gun certainly throws a wrinkle, I'd rather vote Jeff out and then proceed knowing his fate. If we assume he's a wolf today and he's not then we've wasted a day of voting and analysis and probably lynched the wrong person.

There's hardly any way to get a read on DV with how he's played. It could be deadline issues, that's certainly been going around, but I find DV plays quieter when he's a wolf and more out front when he's a villager. The only thing I can say in his favor is he's the only living person who was left on Tyketime, and it would surprise me if the wolves would leave a wolf as the only voter on someone. Seems more they were avoiding giving information on the other two vote getters. That makes me hesitate to go there. The fact that EF feels very certain about him though is some reason to consider him, especially since EF's other suspect is Jeff.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

For that to happen, either CF is also a wolf and they are setting up JAG to use it or lose it, or CF isn't a wolf and McKerney just happened to choose the same guy that CF was thinking of and his plan worked to absolute perfection. It's a huge stretch either way. If McKerney passes it to a random villager who doesn't have the other item, none of this comes out for days and the wolves just wasted an extra kill for no reason.

I'm pretty comfortable with saying this exonerates McKerney, unless CF shows up as wolf at some point.

I don't understand this argument. I'm saying if a wolf gets the gun or the canoli they are likely to pass it to a villager, and use that fact at some point to gain some goodwill from the village. They're not likely to pass it to a wolf, since eventually someone will say, "Hey, I passed that to you, where'd you pass it?"

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Let's get this back up on the current page. I've added the vote counts for day 2, I'll try to do day 1 at some point.

Looking at day 2, if Jeff is a wolf I think that paints J23 and CF and Martin well, paints McKerney poorly. JAG gets a mixed review, he votes CF earlier in the day at a crucial juncture, but then votes Jeff back up towards the end.

If Jeff is a villager, day 2's not too handy unless Tyketime is bad. If Tyke is a wolf, Jeff looks good with his vote.

If Tyke is bad though, you'd have to accept that with at least two known villagers on the block and an unknown in mckerney, that Lathum as wolf would have introduced Tyke as another candidate. Seems like a risky move.

[mckerney]

Vote Narcizo

Mostly for his votes on mau and saldana, I don't see a whole lot else to go on right now if we're going to use the gun on Jeff. It might seem odd to use the fact that someone voted the exact same way as me the last two days as a justification, but I do it knowing how bad my own voting record is at this point.

[tyketime]

Well crap! I apologize that I haven't been as active today as I would have liked. My presentation is in an hour, which means I won't be around at the deadline either. I hope my activity the previous two days will earn me a bit of a hall pass today.

[tyketime]

Here's my unofficial vote tally:

EF votes Jeff (545) 1
J23 votes Darth (553) 1
CrimsonFox votes Bhlloy (560) 1
Bhlloy votes Jeff (591) 2
Autumn votes Jeff (601) 3
Darth votes Tyke (633) 1
MartinD votes Jeff (638) 4
J23 unvotes Darth (677) 0
JAG votes Narcizo (681) 1
EF unvotes Jeff (682) 3
EF votes Darth (682) 1
Jeff votes Darth (689) 2
Autumn unvotes Jeff (690) 2
Bhlloy unvotes Jeff (691) 1
Jackal votes Darth (705) 3
Jeff unvotes Darth (719) 2
Jeff votes JAG (719) 1
Mckerney votes Narcizo (732) 2

Jeff -- 1
Darth -- 2
Bhlloy -- 1
Tyke -- 1
Narcizo -- 2
JAG -- 1

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't understand this argument. I'm saying if a wolf gets the gun or the canoli they are likely to pass it to a villager, and use that fact at some point to gain some goodwill from the village. They're not likely to pass it to a wolf, since eventually someone will say, "Hey, I passed that to you, where'd you pass it?"

Or they would just say they passed it randomly. A villager has no idea who is a wolf and who is a villager. I don't see the wolves passing up a free kill to generate some dubious goodwill days down the road when they could explain it just as easily.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Day One

EF votes Saldana 120 (1)
Narcizo votes Mckerney 122 (1) (Saldana 1, McK 1)
J23 votes Chief Rum 132 (1) (Saldana 1, McK 1, Chief 1)
JAG votes Mckerney 148 (2) (McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
Lathum votes tyketime 153 (1) (McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1, Tyke 1)
Autumn votes tyketime 160 (2) (McK 2, Tyke 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
bhlloy votes mauboy1 161 (1) (McK 2, Tyke 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1, Mauboy 1)
jeff061 votes mauboy1 170 (2) (Mck 2, Tyke 2, Mauboy 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
mauboy1 votes tyketime 176 (3) (Tyke 3, McK2, Mauboy 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
mckerney votes tyketime 178 (4) (Tyke 4, Mck2, Mauboy 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
narcizo unvotes mckerney (1)
narcizo votes mauboy1 (3) (Tyke 4, Mauboy 3, Mck1, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
autumn unvotes tyketime 184 (3)
autumn votes mckerney 185 (2) (Tyke 3, Mauboy 3, McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
tyketime votes mauboy 193 (4) (Mauboy 4, Tyke 3, McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
mckerney unvotes tyketime 194 (2)
mckerney votes mauboy 194 (5) (Mauboy 5, Tyke 2, McK2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
chief votes tyketime (3) (Mauboy 5, Tyke 3, McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
J23 unvotes chief rum (0)
J23 votes tyketime (4) (Mauboy 5, Tyke 4, McK 2, Saldana 1)
saldana votes mauboy (6) (Mauboy 6, Tyke 4, McK 2, Saldana 1)
martind votes mckerney (3) (Mauboy 6, Tyke 4, McK 3, Saldana 1)
zinto votes mauboy (7) (Mauboy 7, Tyke 4, McK 3, Saldana 1)

Day Two

Zinto votes Jeff (242) 1
CrimsonFox votes Tyke (289) 1 (Jeff 1, Tyke 1)
Tyke votes CrimsonFox (290) 1 (Jeff 1, Tyke 1, CF 1)
Eaglefan voted Saldana (294) 1 (Jeff 1, Tyke 1, CF 1, Saldana 1)
Darth Vilus voted Tyke (295) 2 (Tyke 2, Jeff 1, CF 1, Saldana 1)
Narcizo voted Sal (298) 2 (Tyke 2, Saldana 2, Jeff 1, CF 1)
Danny voted Tyke (315) 3 (Tyke 3, Saldana 2, Jeff 1, CF 1)
Jackal voted Jeff (316) 2 (Tyke 3, Saldana 2, Jeff 2, CF 1)
Bhlloy voted CrimsonFox (317) 2 (3 Tyke, 2 CF, 2 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
McKerney voted Jeff (322) 3 (3 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 CF, 2 Saldana)
Autumn voted CrimsonFox (336) 3 (3 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 3 CF, 2 Saldana)
Jeff voted Tyke (338) 4 (4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 3 CF, 2 Saldana)
JAG voted CrimsonFox (341) 4 (4 Tyke, 4 CF, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Lathum voted CrimsonFox (347) 5 (5 CF, 4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Tyke unvoted CrimsonFox (354) 4 (4 CF, 4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
CrimsonFox unvoted tyke (381) 3 (4 CF, 3 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Saldana voted tyke (384) 4 (4 CF, 4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
JAG unvoted CrimsonFox (391) 3 (4 Tyke, 3 CF, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Bhlloy unvoted CrimsonFox (400) 2 (4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 CF, 2 Saldana)
Bhlloy voted Saldana (400) 3 (4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 3 Saldana, 2 CF)
J23 voted Jeff (427) 4 (4 Tyke, 4 Jeff, 3 Saldana, 2 CF)
Lathum unvotes CrimsonFox (444) 1 (4 Tyke, 4 Jeff, 3 Saldana, 1 CF)
Lathum votes Saldana (444) 4 (4 Tyke, 4 Jeff, 4 Saldana, 1 CF)
Jeff unvotes Tyke (453) 3 (4 Jeff, 4 Saldana, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
Jeff votes Sal (453) 5 (5 Saldana, 4 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
CrimsonFox votes Jeff (462) 5 (5 Saldana, 5 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
MartinD votes Jeff (463) 6 (6 Jeff, 5 Saldana, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
Tyke votes Sal (479) 6 (6 Jeff, 6 Saldana, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
McKerney unvotes jeff (482) 5
McKerney votes Sal (482) 7 (7 Saldana, 5 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
JAG votes Jeff (495) 6 (7 Saldana, 6 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
Autumn unvotes CrimsonFox (501) 0
Autumn votes saldana (501) 8 (8 Saldana, 6 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)

Here it's all done out. I haven't updated the coloring if we know anything new. That's beyond me at this point.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Autumn

There's hardly any way to get a read on DV with how he's played. It could be deadline issues, that's certainly been going around, but I find DV plays quieter when he's a wolf and more out front when he's a villager. The only thing I can say in his favor is he's the only living person who was left on Tyketime, and it would surprise me if the wolves would leave a wolf as the only voter on someone. Seems more they were avoiding giving information on the other two vote getters. That makes me hesitate to go there. The fact that EF feels very certain about him though is some reason to consider him, especially since EF's other suspect is Jeff.

Given that DV has done a hit and run for his votes and not been around at deadline seems to derail that defense of him. I think it's certainly feasible that he was a wolf that put out the early vote on someone that he expected to be under scrutiny and then wasn't back to move it when pressure was removed.

I'm really trying to find another place to put my vote other than DV since I really think one of the people that missed the D1 deadline was Clemenza.

[JAG]

Danny should be blue, otherwise looks good as far as I can tell.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Or they would just say they passed it randomly. A villager has no idea who is a wolf and who is a villager. I don't see the wolves passing up a free kill to generate some dubious goodwill days down the road when they could explain it just as easily.

I guess it depends on the wolf. If someone claimed they passed it randomly I would vote them right away. That just reeks of a wolf excuse, why would a villager do that?

I'm not going to give much leeway to McK or even JAG or CF for revealing this stuff. The fact that you guys want to lean towards trusting them because of it is exactly why a wolf would do it.

That said, let's get back to digging up a wolf.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Or they would just say they passed it randomly. A villager has no idea who is a wolf and who is a villager. I don't see the wolves passing up a free kill to generate some dubious goodwill days down the road when they could explain it just as easily.

Or say they passed it to someone who has since been killed and the trail for the gun or canoli is dead.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't think we should assume passing the canoli makes McKerney good (there's a phrase I didn't expect to ever utter). Whoever passed it to McKerney knows he did. If McKerney passes it on to a wolf and they eventually make a kill with it, we'll eventually follow that trail of crumbs to McKerney. I think a wolf most likely tries to play the good villager if they end up with one of those, and does things publicly. It earns them trust and for all we know Jeff's a villager about to get plugged with it, so why would the wolves do it behind our backs and risk being caught?

I feel good about JAG, and so I don't expect this is a double-wolf ploy but I don't see any reason to exonerate McKerney based on it. The alternative was to pass it to a wolf and then play dumb when someone called him on it eventually?

I will disagree with you on the ability to track back the people who passed the gun and canoli, since it only takes one lynch or night kill to hinder our ability to track the items back. Also if someone claims they passed it to someone and then it disappeared all the individual would have to do is claim he passed it to someone out of the game.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by J23

Given that DV has done a hit and run for his votes and not been around at deadline seems to derail that defense of him. I think it's certainly feasible that he was a wolf that put out the early vote on someone that he expected to be under scrutiny and then wasn't back to move it when pressure was removed.

I'm really trying to find another place to put my vote other than DV since I really think one of the people that missed the D1 deadline was Clemenza.

Yeah, no the vote doesn't look good (or bad I suppose). But the fact that we would lynch Saldana and then they'd kill Danny, leaving Darth alone there seems odd.

[J23]

BTW, I'm also 100% behind JAG using the kill power tonight. Assuming all roles were in the game at the start:

Carlo Rizzi is still in the game, and if they find Connie Corleone, we lose a villager.
Phillip Tattaglia is still in the game, and if they die, another villager dies.
Johnny Fontane is still in the game, and is removed if they get the horse's head.
On top of that, Fredo's vote is a double count only on villagers.

We're at 10-4 heading into tonight's lynch, and a bad lynch + nightkill puts us at 8-4, or 7-4 if we lynch Tattaglia or Fontane gets the horse's head, 6-4 if both happen. I don't know that a longer timeline helps the village as much as some people have tried to advocate honestly.

[Autumn]

McKerney and Zinto, you've got me there. That's again not an ironclad alibi, but you're right, they could try that. Still, in my mind to a wolf trust is better than a free kill, but people make all sorts of choices in this game.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Autumn

McKerney and Zinto, you've got me there. That's again not an ironclad alibi, but you're right, they could try that. Still, in my mind to a wolf trust is better than a free kill, but people make all sorts of choices in this game.

I am not saying we should ignore Crimson or McKerney the rest of the game because they offered up items but for today there have to be better options though I am struggling to figure out a good reason to vote for anyone.

[tyketime]

Well - I said earlier I wasn't thrilled with DV playing the drive-by game. And he's dinged me very early twice using the same reason each time. I don't like putting a vote out there and not being able to reconsider as the deadline approaches, but I'm afraid work has intervened today.

VOTE DARTH VILUS

I'm around for 10-15 minutes, and then I'm off to the conference room. If someone has a better idea, I'm listening...

[Passacaglia]

jeff061 -- 1 MartinD (638)
Darth Vilus -- 3 EagleFan (682) The Jackal (705) tyketime (746)
bhlloy -- 1 CrimsonFox (560)
tyketime -- 1 Darth Vilus (633)
Narcizo -- 2 JAG (681) mckerney (732)
JAG -- 1 jeff061 (719)

[J23]

I have a meeting to run to until 2:30EST or so, maybe later. I haven't come up with a better target than DV either. I wish we could get more information from it, but killing the most likely wolf isn't ever a bad option.

Vote DV

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

If Tyke is bad though, you'd have to accept that with at least two known villagers on the block and an unknown in mckerney, that Lathum as wolf would have introduced Tyke as another candidate. Seems like a risky move.

Yes, good point, I hadn't looked into that that much. I have no idea where to vote so I guess I'll be doing just that, looking at it extensively.

[Autumn]

Funny that we've got more of a runaway going with Darth than we did with Jeff.