04-08-2009, 12:51 PM | #701 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
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Who here trusts my gut?
I have a suspicion on a potential wolf, but it's all just a gut call, based on a Day One vote and a manner of posting I recognize as something similar to what I believe I might do as a wolf. I still have my ability to change the lynch, and I figure to be a goner tonight, so if I would do it, today would be the day. All that said, I can't really say my gut call is any better than any of the other theories floated today (including my other one, linking Pass to lerriuqs, incidentally I like my gut call more than that).
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
04-08-2009, 12:56 PM | #702 | |
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
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Quote:
I'm with you on this one. My gut tells me there is a link there as well.
__________________
Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
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04-08-2009, 01:00 PM | #703 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I'm all for gut calls, that's a lot of how I garner my early suspicions. Are you suggesting you'll change the vote but not pass on your suspicion? I'm not sure it would help us out if you're not fairly certain. It would mean we wouldn't get real feedback on the vote today unless you suspect one of the main contenders.
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04-08-2009, 01:02 PM | #704 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Chief, right now you're are only trusted person. Go for it.
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04-08-2009, 01:03 PM | #705 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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*our, not are
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04-08-2009, 01:15 PM | #706 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
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Quote:
I'm saying I could if I decided to, but am very much undecided on that for the very reason you state, it's just a gut call. My thinking is I have one shot and that's it, and I'll probably be a goner tonight anyway. But I'm not sure my gut call is any better of a candidate than the others suggested, which makes me leery to change the vote of a whole thinking village on just my gut call. It would probably be better to just name the gut call and get feedback, maybe introduce another possibility into the mix. I'm going to think on it while at lunch.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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04-08-2009, 01:15 PM | #707 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Finally my internet works. Been having troubles this morning. I'm cool with a gut call from CR, there doesn't seem to be substantial evidence against anyone, just some fliers on UTR play and/or other gut feelings.
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04-08-2009, 01:18 PM | #708 |
H.S. Freshman Team
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
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Ditto. It's pretty clear to me now that CR's play was the right one earlier, I just didn't pick up on it at the time.
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04-08-2009, 01:20 PM | #709 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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As items appear in the game I will post them in the rules section along with potential uses. Each item also has the option to allow the person in posession of the item to try to be creative and come up with a use but I will let them know if that is acceptable without slanting the game too much or if an alteration may be needed. All items also have potential negative side affects which may or may not be obvious (or mentioned).
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04-08-2009, 01:27 PM | #710 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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What's the method for getting the items, just say pick up rope or something when you see it?
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04-08-2009, 01:34 PM | #711 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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I am all for hearing who CR suspects, but to me it doesn't elevate that person one way or the other. CR is operating with just as much information as the rest of us.
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04-08-2009, 01:53 PM | #712 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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Quote:
Y'know what...a few are throwing accusing fingers at me over Lathum-gate () but no one is questioning the way you and Pass went after each other. I know I'm innocent and you cast the first vote on me. I wasn't going to cast a retaliatory vote, but this seems off...somehow. VOTE LATHUM |
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04-08-2009, 01:54 PM | #713 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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Oh and should we call it Lathum-gate or Bully-gate?
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04-08-2009, 01:56 PM | #714 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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If we can't get consensus on a target, we may need your help Chief. So far, no one has convinced me of another target, so I'd like to focus on Cartman. But obviously everybody has their pet suspect.
Is it pretty much assumed in standard Werewolf that the bodyguard can't protect the same person twice in a row? I haven't been in enough games to be sure of that. |
04-08-2009, 01:56 PM | #715 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Question for Barkeep and USFLTechmo, Why did you guys leave your votes on Abe day 1 when Clap revealed and it was obvious there was going to be an Abe-Hoops run off?
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04-08-2009, 01:58 PM | #716 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
Well I would imagine that's because Pass wasn't defending me. Question for you, if I am a wolf what incentive do I have to break the day 1 tie? |
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04-08-2009, 02:07 PM | #717 | |
H.S. Freshman Team
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
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Quote:
You mean a Clap-hoops runoff at the end? If that's what you mean, then I thought CR was going to use his duke powers (and I'm assuming at this point that he has them), so clap was safe. Hoops I didn't have any sort of read on, and no one else gave me enough of a read to move. Point being, it didn't seem like a wise move to change at all when I didn't have a reason to, especially considering I was quietly told that casting a 2nd vote on someone without a reason wasn't generally a good move by CR early on. |
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04-08-2009, 02:07 PM | #718 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Quote:
Look for clues. There was a clue which someone picked up on and searched. That gave another clue to a location to search and the search revealed the rope. Also for the record for anyone finding things. The create a use cannot extend to a learn the identity feature. You can prevent, defend, "hide", silence and some other things with some of the items but no learn the identity options as that may have too large of an affect on the game. |
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04-08-2009, 02:07 PM | #719 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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04-08-2009, 02:17 PM | #720 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
How does changing my vote and lynching someone who is one of the best villagers in the game going to make myself look good? As a wolf IMO I wouldn't care who got lynched, and would have actualy prefered a tie in that spot so the villagers have to do day 1 all over again. |
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04-08-2009, 02:18 PM | #721 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
yes. Sorry, Clap-Hoops. |
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04-08-2009, 02:28 PM | #722 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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I got caught up. Not sure where I'm going with my vote yet although depending on what CR does it may not matter.
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04-08-2009, 02:29 PM | #723 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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CR, one recommendation I have is not announcing your move in advance (unless you think discussion is needed) so that we can see how the votes shake out. That is your call though.
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04-08-2009, 02:29 PM | #724 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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Quote:
1. You save the seer. So double bonus, you got rid of one of the best villagers in the game and you look good as you saved the seer. 2. Yeah, that wouldn't look bad, but the optics of saving the seer - who then got a wolf look good. And you got a number of complements on the move. |
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04-08-2009, 02:30 PM | #725 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
I see both sides here. The element of surprise works, but at the same time, the BG is still out there. |
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04-08-2009, 02:31 PM | #726 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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I'm normally on for deadline, but today need to take my mom for a doctor's appointment so will be out about 6 eastern and won't return until after deadline.
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04-08-2009, 02:31 PM | #727 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
how did I save the seer? Tie= no lynch |
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04-08-2009, 02:32 PM | #728 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Danny, I was thinking about that but we have 14 living players, take out CR, meaning he has a 1/13 chance in hitting the BG. It's a tough call to make, you're right.
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04-08-2009, 02:33 PM | #729 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
Looking back through Pass's comments, I think it's worth noting who he was plugging as suspects. Here he was pushing Clap, Lathum and Lerriuqs. Further on he piled on to those pushing Schmidty and Poli as suspect for voting each other. Once outed he did his best to paint Lathum as a target. Clearly, INsiders are devious folks so we have to take this all with a grain of salt. Still, he seemed content to direct votes at Clap, Lathum, Lerriuqs, Schmidty or Poli, two of which we know to have been good. I tend to think that further exploration of the Lathum/Lerriuqs grudge match is not likely to be fruitful. |
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04-08-2009, 02:34 PM | #730 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
In a 24 hour deadline I like it being a surprise because it keeps the wolves guessing with their night kill. With there being time between deadlines I think I actualy prefer some discussion about it. |
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04-08-2009, 02:36 PM | #731 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
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Quote:
Actually, I'm usually quieter than some think, unless forced to the spotlight by many votes.
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04-08-2009, 02:38 PM | #732 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
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Quote:
Do it. Be a Lathum!
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04-08-2009, 02:38 PM | #733 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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04-08-2009, 02:39 PM | #734 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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In fact, here is what I'm looking at with CR's gut call:
14 living players, remove CR 13 players, likely 3 wolves left and Drew 4/13 chance he hits someone that is bad or potentially bad 8/13 chance he hits a random good guy 1/13 chance he hits the body guard Plus, the chances are that we're going to lose CR and his ability sooner rather than later. His biggest value isn't his lynch-changing ability but the fact that he's our only trusted villager. I'm for him going for it and I *think* I'm fine with him acting blindly but I guess there may not be any value in the element of surprise. |
04-08-2009, 02:40 PM | #735 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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04-08-2009, 02:42 PM | #736 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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I still like the idea of gathering voting data and then, depending on the vote leader, maybe CR doesn't act. BUT if he does, and it stays quiet until then, we still have decent data to go off of later despite no lynch from the vote. I just don't want to see a bunch of people vote CR so that he has to act and we get no data. I say work under the assumption that he's not acting and then he can make the call.
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04-08-2009, 02:43 PM | #737 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
I wouldn't mind hearing his analysis as my vote is certainly open right now and we may want to lynch that person anyway. Plus if we lynch them the old fashioned way we have the vote analysis to learn from. In the end CR could always end up using it if the voting doesn't turn out the way he wants, but we don't learn much of anything from the voting if it's just a big surprise. |
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04-08-2009, 02:43 PM | #738 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Despite what I just posted, Lerriuqs is raising red flags for me here. He seems determined to paint Lathum as suspicious, damn any logic. He may just be a passionate villager, I suspect, but I'm not sure.
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04-08-2009, 02:43 PM | #739 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
We don't have to vote CR, he can duke anything he wants regardless of where the votes fall. |
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04-08-2009, 02:44 PM | #740 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
then they are crazy. A no lynch is a huge win for Wolves. It basicly forces everyone to start day 1 over again, but the wolves have the added benefit of a night kill. Thats why I cast the late vote for Hoops, it didn't look like anyone else would switch and Clap wasn't an option, only leaving Hoops or a tie as our only option unless CR used his ability, something I would have no idea if he would or wouldn't do. |
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04-08-2009, 02:46 PM | #741 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
Oh I agree with your action. I was online and as much as I didn't want to lynch hoops I would have switched to avoid the tie as well if you or no one else had. |
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04-08-2009, 02:52 PM | #742 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I don't see any reason to target you for your Day 1 action, Lathum, but it seems to me that since the major vote getters were villagers, it would have been just as good for the wolves to break the tie and knock off two villagers in a day.
I think we're chasing up the wrong tree with this discussion though, which is what makes me wary of Lerriuqs harping on it. |
04-08-2009, 03:01 PM | #743 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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Quote:
Meh I'm simply responding the Lathum's questions. I actually thought you might be on the right track with your post of who Pass was after and who's already dead... |
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04-08-2009, 03:01 PM | #744 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Only new circumstances cause me to change my D1 vote. One bit of randomness tends to be as good as another. As Abe was not any revealed role, I was happy keeping my vote on him.
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04-08-2009, 03:04 PM | #745 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
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04-08-2009, 03:09 PM | #746 | ||
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
Quote:
Looks like this is still current. |
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04-08-2009, 03:10 PM | #747 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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How the heck did I just quote two separate posts?
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04-08-2009, 03:12 PM | #748 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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As of 747:
MartinD 1 - Barkeep49 (660) lerriuqs 2 - Lathum (677), cartman (686) Abe Sargent 1 - PurdueBrad (681) cartman 1 - Autumn (692) Lathum 1 - lerriuqs (712) yet to vote: Abe Sargent, USFLTecmo, The Jackal, Chief Rum, Poli, Danny, MartinD, dubb93 |
04-08-2009, 03:13 PM | #749 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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You have reached the Office Drone Zone, obviously your productivity will protect you.
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04-08-2009, 03:13 PM | #750 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
I know, but I've played in a couple games here where that is what people have done, which is a cop out to an actual vote. Although maybe you and BK are right, do it publicly and then we can vote that person if we want to save his power. |
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