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Old 03-15-2016, 02:31 PM   #701
nol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Groundhog View Post
Unless your leading scorer is not a guy who takes 10-15 feet jumpshots? It's not LSU's amazing offense that is getting Simmons space in the midrange - it's the fact that the defense is giving him those shots.

If my leading scorer can't shoot from outside the lane and is not a Shaq-level force in the post, getting offense in the halfcourt is going to be an uphill battle no matter what. There's not some magic bullet play that allows you to have a pretty offense if the guy guarding the ball is able to sag off and clog up passing lanes (again, especially given that Simmons wasn't a willing screener); we definitely overrate not necessarily coaching, but the extent to which calling a play really helps matters. Simmons was certainly not the problem on offense, but he wasn't really the solution either, and that's not exactly what you'd want to see from a player who isn't renowned for his defense.

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Originally Posted by Groundhog View Post
It's not like his shooting stroke is broken - he's not MKG. It's just repetition. That would be the least concerning aspect of his flaws if I were an NBA GM.

Honestly, what makes you so sure of this? Kidd-Gilchrist made three-pointers while at Kentucky and shot a higher percentage from the line. It's not like Simmons has textbook form either - I read an article that I initially thought was a joke that suggested he might be better off pulling a Tristan Thompson and shooting it right-handed instead, and by the end of it I was somewhat convinced. It's incredibly easy to say Simmons has high upside because if you wave the magic wand that turns a college non-shooter like Kawhi Leonard into a 40+ percent three-point shooter in the NBA then you have an unstoppable offensive player, but how likely is that to come to fruition? Even if I were to make the ludicrous assumptions that Simmons would receive shooting instruction as good as what Leonard has received with the Spurs and work as hard as Leonard has, I still have to reckon with the fact that Kawhi was starting out in a much, much better place in terms of both form and prior results.

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Originally Posted by Groundhog View Post
Sure you can, if you're lead player is the best in the world at the time..... Simmons is not LeBron James, and he wouldn't have been at Duke or Kentucky.

Ben Simmons wasn't playing everybody in the world this season, he was just playing other college players. The college talent pool is so shallow this season that Kris Dunn went from a mid-late first round pick to the top 5 by staying another year, and his stats stayed exactly the same! I certainly have more sympathy than just about anyone when it comes to a good player being let down by bad teammates; I never said LSU was going to have to be a national title contender with the players surrounding Simmons, but there's a pretty big difference between a team that flames out in the first round of the NCAAs and one that wasn't really even a bubble team.

Quote:
The skills he does have right now certainly seem to favour the up-tempo NBA game with better spacing inside the arc than they do the college game.

Every player looks better with more spacing and more fast breaks, but those don't come from thin air. You have to get stops to be able to run, and Simmons didn't show much in terms of helping a college team do that. I already wrote a pretty extensive post about how nearly every team that could end up with Simmons doesn't have much in the way of shooters who would need to play alongside him and provide spacing.

Last edited by nol : 03-15-2016 at 02:58 PM.
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Old 03-15-2016, 06:17 PM   #702
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If the Celtics get the #1 pick and don't use it to trade for Boogie/Blake/Jimmy Butler/Paul George/Danny Ainge's Mystery Player du jour I'd take Ben Simmons in a heartbeat. If I was Philly or another team with a longer path to relevancy I'd take a long look at him vs Ingram (and I guess Bender, though his lack of minutes makes the inevitable Porzingis comparisons as silly as any Simmons/LeBron/Magic ones) because Ingram probably does have a slightly higher ceiling to go with his much lower floor. But for all the talk about Ben Simmons limitations he has unique, elite strengths and a good coach will accentuate those. The NBA is all about exploiting matchups now, and Ben Simmons is a matchup nightmare. Depending on opponent personnel, you could have him be the ballhandler in a big/big P&R, or you could have him be the big in a regular one where he'd almost always be catching the ball in a quick 4v3. Age is a relevant date point, but assuming a younger player will progress exponentially, or a 20 year old is anywhere close to finished developing is how you end up picking James Young and Bruno Caboclo over Rodney Hood. Last draft I loved both Myles Turner, who played under a terrible coach, and Stanley Johnson who played under an equally terrible one when it comes to coaching offense - and both looked great within 2 games on a competent NBA team. Don't overthink things.

Btw, after Jae Crowder's injury (and Kelly Olynyk also being out), Celtics were running some legit 4 guard lineups out with Marcus Smart playing the 4. Tonight he's starting at the 3 and matching up with Paul George. Versatility is king.

Oh, fwiw because I think things past Simmons/Ingram are more interesting, if the Celtics picked 4th (and maybe even 3rd if they don't like Bender) I'm all in on Jakob Poeltl at this point. Not a classic rim protector, but good rebounder, good footwork on D, hustles, and a very well rounded player on O. Doesn't have any outside range, but athletic enough to dive to the rim in a pick and roll if necessary, and does a great job reading the floor while posting up.

Last edited by BishopMVP : 03-15-2016 at 07:10 PM.
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Old 03-15-2016, 07:06 PM   #703
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Anyone getting "Boys Among Men" by Jonathon Abrams?
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Old 03-15-2016, 07:49 PM   #704
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It's on my Kindle wishlist... along with about 50 other books... Sounds like it's as good as was hoped for.
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:15 PM   #705
nol
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Originally Posted by BishopMVP View Post
If I was Philly or another team with a longer path to relevancy I'd take a long look at him vs Ingram (and I guess Bender, though his lack of minutes makes the inevitable Porzingis comparisons as silly as any Simmons/LeBron/Magic ones) because Ingram probably does have a slightly higher ceiling to go with his much lower floor. But for all the talk about Ben Simmons limitations he has unique, elite strengths and a good coach will accentuate those.

LeBron is LeBron. Magic is Magic (incidentally, Magic made a Simmons-esque college choice in going to a school that hadn't been to the NCAA tournament since 1958-59 to play for a coach who certainly didn't have a lofty resume, and we know what he did there).

Porzingis is going to get much better, but at the same time you're not hearing about him as much at this stage of the year for a reason. If Bender is in this year's draft, he'll be over a year younger than Porzingis was when he was drafted. In 2014 Porzingis averaged 6 points and 3 boards for a team much weaker than Bender's, so once again even if you completely throw out any information you could have gathered by watching the players watching the players prior to a couple months before they enter the draft, it's not some lofty statistical comparison to live up to. So are you really going to say the comparisons are equally unrealistic?

Your last sentence there is basically what the debate between Simmons and Ingram would come down to: is being new and unique good in and of itself? If Ingram were to develop to the best of his ability, his production would probably be somewhere in between that of Rashard Lewis and Paul George, which isn't as sexy as Simmons being able to pull off some highlight plays that seem to be rarer for a player his size.

Please note that I'm not punching Ingram's ticket to the Hall of Fame with these comparisons and that Simmons could very much end up being the better choice between the two, but it is in fact debatable, has been for a while, and should continue to be regardless of whether Ingram has a crappy game and Duke loses in the first round or he ends up averaging 20+ ppg for the tournament and takes Duke to the Final Four and beyond. It'd be nice to see the two work out against one another since it's been so rare in recent years that the #1 pick is up for grabs, but Simmons seems very much like the type of player who, if the Lakers or the Celtics were to get the #2 pick, would probably try to concede the top slot to Ingram.

As for the matter of "Simmons is the best prospect since LeBron or the best one-and-done since _____" or selling him as this rare generational talent: I don't think it qualifies as overly pessimistic that there aren't too many recent first overall picks I'd take him over. Once again, I'm not saying Simmons is a bum who should be in the D-League or will never sniff an All-Star game, but it's a good reminder that most of the names on this did some extremely impressive things in college and early in their NBA careers before they played long enough for the hot takes about why they haven't yet won a championship to start rolling in:

04: Howard - nope
05: Bogut - ok sure, even though Bogut was 3rd team All NBA at age 25 (and probably would've been an All-Star and 1st or 2nd in DPOY if people knew then what they know now about rim protection) before f'ing up his arm to the point that he could never do much on offense. If you're the type of person who thinks Chris Paul should've been the no-brainer first pick of the draft, you'd be choosing CP3 over Simmons
06: Bargnani - yep! I'll even be generous and say without thinking about it too much that he's a better prospect than LaMarcus Aldridge as well.
07: Oden was certainly a better prospect before the injuries, and Durant is an obvious no of course.
08: Rose (won MVP at age 21, and even if it wasn't deserved being in the top 2 or 3 is pretty crazy for that age) - no
09: Griffin (All-Star as a rookie, 2nd or 3rd team all NBA every season since) - no
10: Wall - no
11: Irving (All-Star at age 20) - no
12: Davis - of course not
13: Bennett - of course
14: Wiggins - no
15: Towns - definitely no

I'm not sure as to what all of Simmons' elite strengths are and would like someone to convince me otherwise. There's ballhandling and passing of course. See? I'm looking past the meh 4.8/3.4 assist/turnover ratio and acknowledging that a decent amount of his passes that show up in 'lowlights' are actually plays where he saw an opportunity that his teammate was too dumb to see for himself, but I'd also point to how Draymond Green's averaging 7 assists per game thanks to the driving/passing lanes opened up to him because he plays with the best-shooting pair of teammates in NBA history and is able to start fast breaks as opposed to grabbing the ball out of the basket because he's the most versatile defensive player in the league.

Finishing? He shoots 56% from the floor but only 55% at the rim in halfcourt situations per the Vertical article. One positive way to spin it would be that I remember Andrew Wiggins (who is probably the closest example in terms of 'struggled somewhat and wasn't used the right way in college but had a game more suited to the NBA' that I can think of) having similarly concerning numbers there, but then again Wiggins is on another level of explosiveness and just had to get a little bit stronger and realize he could just take off and dunk over people whereas, as murayyyyy said, you see a lot of instances of Simmons resorting to the unorthodox foul-drawing attempts.

Rebounding? As Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, and Blake Griffin have shown that's largely a function of where you play on the floor. Also I remember people being extremely excited because Simmons was around 15 rpg early in the non-conference schedule, which I said was going to come down for a variety of reasons. The natural reaction to that statement is probably gonna be WTF how can you nitpick 20-12-5?!? but the numbers themselves are fine (if slightly inflated due to playing more minutes and not teaming up with other good college players). If Simmons' box scores were reversed and he'd sleepwalked through the North Florida/Oral Roberts type of opponents while really beasting against the Texas A&Ms and Kentuckys at the end of the season that would've been much more intriguing. Instead, the numbers seem to confirm that he didn't have quite the steep development curve you're used to seeing out of highly-touted freshmen, which makes sense considering Simmons' age, physical maturity, and experience playing tougher competition in AAU and against other basketball factory high schools.

Defensively? He gets steals as a function of reaching and gambling for them often; before the season I thought he was supposed to be quick enough to play as a straight-up point guard as opposed to be a point forward (aka no awkward cross-matchups for your team on defense), but that didn't really happen. With that aspect of defense I'll leave open the possibility that he wasn't locked in, but that's definitely one part of the game that a player can do well in regardless of how bad his teammates or coaches are. I never really saw teams shy away from attacking Simmons and it seemed like in general Simmons was guarding the least-threatening post player to stay out of foul trouble. Even when trying hard, he doesn't seem to have the instincts or explosiveness to help much as a rim protector. That latter part is a major key to where a player like the Greek Freek stands out as a really special long-term prospect because when trying to surround a non-shooting point forward with as many shooters as possible, you're going to need to find defense wherever you can get it.
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Originally Posted by BishopMVP View Post
If I was Philly or another team with a longer path to relevancy I'd take a long look at him vs Ingram (and I guess Bender, though his lack of minutes makes the inevitable Porzingis comparisons as silly as any Simmons/LeBron/Magic ones) because Ingram probably does have a slightly higher ceiling to go with his much lower floor. But for all the talk about Ben Simmons limitations he has unique, elite strengths and a good coach will accentuate those.

LeBron is LeBron. Magic is Magic (incidentally, Magic made a Simmons-esque college choice in going to a school that hadn't been to the NCAA tournament since 1958-59 to play for a coach who certainly didn't have a lofty resume, and we know what he did there).

Porzingis is going to get much better, but at the same time you're not hearing about him as much at this stage of the year for a reason. If Bender is in this year's draft, he'll be over a year younger than Porzingis was when he was drafted. In 2014 Porzingis averaged 6 points and 3 boards for a team much weaker than Bender's, so once again even if you completely throw out any information you could have gathered by watching the players watching the players prior to a couple months before they enter the draft, it's not some lofty statistical comparison to live up to. So are you really going to say the comparisons are equally unrealistic?

Your last sentence there is basically what the debate between Simmons and Ingram would come down to: is being new and unique good in and of itself? If Ingram were to develop to the best of his ability, his production would probably be somewhere in between that of Rashard Lewis and Paul George, which isn't as sexy as Simmons being able to pull off some highlight plays that seem to be rarer for a player his size.

Please note that I'm not punching Ingram's ticket to the Hall of Fame with these comparisons and that Simmons could very much end up being the better choice between the two, but it is in fact debatable, has been for a while, and should continue to be regardless of whether Ingram has a crappy game and Duke loses in the first round or he ends up averaging 20+ ppg for the tournament and takes Duke to the Final Four and beyond. It'd be nice to see the two work out against one another since it's been so rare in recent years that the #1 pick is up for grabs, but Simmons seems very much like the type of player who, if the Lakers or the Celtics were to get the #2 pick, would probably try to concede the top slot to Ingram.

As for the matter of "Simmons is the best prospect since LeBron or the best one-and-done since _____" or selling him as this rare generational talent: I don't think it qualifies as overly pessimistic that there aren't too many recent first overall picks I'd take him over. Once again, I'm not saying Simmons is a bum who should be in the D-League or will never sniff an All-Star game, but it's a good reminder that most of the names on this did some extremely impressive things in college and early in their NBA careers before they played long enough for the hot takes about why they haven't yet won a championship to start rolling in:

04: Howard - nope
05: Bogut - ok sure, even though Bogut was 3rd team All NBA at age 25 (and probably would've been an All-Star and 1st or 2nd in DPOY if people knew then what they know now about rim protection) before f'ing up his arm to the point that he could never do much on offense. If you're the type of person who thinks Chris Paul should've been the no-brainer first pick of the draft, you'd be choosing CP3 over Simmons
06: Bargnani - yep! I'll even be generous and say without thinking about it too much that he's a better prospect than LaMarcus Aldridge as well.
07: Oden was certainly a better prospect before the injuries, and Durant is an obvious no of course.
08: Rose (won MVP at age 21, and even if it wasn't deserved being in the top 2 or 3 is pretty crazy for that age) - no
09: Griffin (All-Star as a rookie, 2nd or 3rd team all NBA every season since) - no
10: Wall - no
11: Irving (All-Star at age 20) - no
12: Davis - of course not
13: Bennett - of course
14: Wiggins - no
15: Towns - definitely no

I'm not sure as to what all of Simmons' elite strengths are and would like someone to convince me otherwise. There's ballhandling and passing of course. See? I'm looking past the meh 4.8/3.4 assist/turnover ratio and acknowledging that a decent amount of his passes that show up in 'lowlights' are actually plays where he saw an opportunity that his teammate was too dumb to see for himself, but I'd also point to how Draymond Green's averaging 7 assists per game thanks to the driving/passing lanes opened up to him because he plays with the best-shooting pair of teammates in NBA history and is able to start fast breaks as opposed to grabbing the ball out of the basket because he's the most versatile defensive player in the league.

Finishing? He shoots 56% from the floor but only 55% at the rim in halfcourt situations per the Vertical article. One positive way to spin it would be that I remember Andrew Wiggins (who is probably the closest example in terms of 'struggled somewhat and wasn't used the right way in college but had a game more suited to the NBA' that I can think of) having similarly concerning numbers there, but then again Wiggins is on another level of explosiveness and just had to get a little bit stronger and realize he could just take off and dunk over people whereas, as murayyyyy said, you see a lot of instances of Simmons resorting to the unorthodox foul-drawing attempts.

Rebounding? As Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, and Blake Griffin have shown that's largely a function of where you play on the floor. Also I remember people being extremely excited because Simmons was around 15 rpg early in the non-conference schedule, which I said was going to come down for a variety of reasons. The natural reaction to that statement is probably gonna be WTF how can you nitpick 20-12-5?!? but the numbers themselves are fine (if slightly inflated due to playing more minutes and not teaming up with other good college players). If Simmons' box scores were reversed and he'd sleepwalked through the North Florida/Oral Roberts type of opponents while really beasting against the Texas A&Ms and Kentuckys at the end of the season that would've been much more intriguing. Instead, the numbers seem to confirm that he didn't have quite the steep development curve you're used to seeing out of highly-touted freshmen, which makes sense considering Simmons' age, physical maturity, and experience playing tougher competition in AAU and against other basketball factory high schools.

Defensively? He gets steals as a function of reaching and gambling for them often; before the season I thought he was supposed to be quick enough to play as a straight-up point guard as opposed to be a point forward (aka no awkward cross-matchups for your team on defense), but that didn't really happen. With that aspect of defense I'll leave open the possibility that he wasn't locked in, but that's definitely one part of the game that a player can do well in regardless of how bad his teammates or coaches are. I never really saw teams shy away from attacking Simmons and it seemed like in general Simmons was guarding the least-threatening post player to stay out of foul trouble. Even when trying hard, he doesn't seem to have the instincts or explosiveness to help much as a rim protector. That latter part is a major key to where a player like the Greek Freek stands out as a really special long-term prospect because when trying to surround a non-shooting point forward with as many shooters as possible, you're going to need to find defense wherever you can get it.

Last edited by nol : 03-15-2016 at 11:25 PM.
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:42 PM   #706
murrayyyyy
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Pretty sure Magic went to Michigan St because it was the only school that would let him play point guard and Jud had a pretty tall point guard at his previous job at Montana with Michael Ray Richardson. Well that and I think he played high school ball in Lansing.
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:51 PM   #707
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Originally Posted by nol View Post
(incidentally, Magic made a Simmons-esque college choice in going to a school that hadn't been to the NCAA tournament since 1958-59 to play for a coach who certainly didn't have a lofty resume, and we know what he did there).

OK, I get that you don't rate Simmons, but it's a bit of a reach to compare one of the all-time greats (college and pro) and the tournament winning Spartans team and coach to this year's LSU as a slight against Simmons. How many LSU games did you watch this year?
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Old 03-15-2016, 09:58 PM   #708
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As for the matter of "Simmons is the best prospect since LeBron or the best one-and-done since _____" or selling him as this rare generational talent
Who are you arguing against? No one here is saying things like this. None of the respected analysts like D-E, NBADraft.net, Chad Ford, etc, have been saying anything along those lines. Ben Simmons is not a generational talent, just an extremely NBA-ready one and done who is a good candidate to go #1 overall in a bit of a down year. Mentally engaged Lamar Odom sounds pretty good if the alternative is pre-HGH Rashard Lewis or even rawer Kristaps.
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Old 03-16-2016, 12:07 AM   #709
nol
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OK, I get that you don't rate Simmons, but it's a bit of a reach to compare one of the all-time greats (college and pro) and the tournament winning Spartans team and coach to this year's LSU as a slight against Simmons. How many LSU games did you watch this year?

I just found it an interesting aside because I thought most people would assume like me that MSU had a little more basketball history before Magic considering their high-profile status today. Anyway, I certainly watched quite a few and with a more unbiased eye than you given what I've written and what ended up happening this season.

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Who are you arguing against? No one here is saying things like this.

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Originally Posted by murrayyyyy
Not sure how Simmons doesn't upgrade the Celtics.

There have been maybe 2-3 rookies in the past 5 years who'd be able to upgrade a 45-50 win team in their first year, and without naming names, they'd be contributing on the defensive end while being the 4th option on offense. That's just not Simmons' game - nothing wrong with that, but saying he's good enough to bypass the struggles all rookies face is overselling him by quite a bit.

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Originally Posted by Groundhog
I'd put his ceiling somewhere between Odom at worst, and LeBron at absolute best.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BishopMVP
Sane Lamar Odom with more upside is a pretty freaking good player

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Originally Posted by Atocep
It's almost like you're watching the small forward version of Jason Kidd with a jumper

Lamar Odom, despite being passive/mentally unengaged/on lots of drugs or whatever else you'd like to call it, was able to do all the things we like about Ben Simmons plus shoot the ball and defend. He spent his career in the Western Conference and thus had to compete for All-Star forward spots (they still had center on the ballot then, which resulted in stuff like Brad Miller and Jamal Magloire in the ASG) with the likes of Duncan, KG, Dirk, CWebb, T-Mac, and Amare'.

So we're talking about a guy who would've made 3-5 All-Star games just if the West hadn't been so stacked relative to the East, who was a key contributor on two championship teams, whose skillset was clearly more suited to today's NBA (as opposed to being either a relatively skinny guy playing PF in the best era for PFs in NBA history or a SF sharing the court with two non-shooting big guys), and who did this all despite having some very real mentality/off the court issues, and then you're saying that Ben Simmons, worst-case, is a "mentally focused" version of this player. That's saying his worst-case scenario is a Hall of Famer.

Jason Kidd spent most of his career with the nickname "Ason Kidd" and still ended up being one of the top 30 or so players of all-time, so I'm gonna say Jason Kidd with a jumper is also going a biiiiit overboard.


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Mentally engaged Lamar Odom sounds pretty good if the alternative is pre-HGH Rashard Lewis or even rawer Kristaps.

Of course it sounds pretty good considering that only the latter two involved any sort of rigor. If I'd just thrown out that Ingram reminds me of Kevin Durant and Dragan Bender is a 7'1 Andrei Kirilenko with a better three-point shot, then the alternatives sound better.

Last edited by nol : 03-16-2016 at 02:52 AM.
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Old 03-16-2016, 01:21 AM   #710
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Lets just remember Simmons is 19 years old. He has many things he can improve but is also pretty amazing with some of the things he can do. Of that list of #1 picks, how many of them didnt have question marks coming into the draft? They improved areas of weakness in order to become the all star players they would become.

I cant say I watched enough of Simmons to really judge him right now but he was putting up some amazing numbers for most of the season.

Also, the NBA plays right into the abilities of Simmons with his skills. He is going to be a nightmare matchup. Cant just pack it in and make him take jumpers all day. Going to be too big for guards and too quick for forwards.

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Old 03-16-2016, 02:36 AM   #711
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Lets just remember Simmons is 19 years old. He has many things he can improve but is also pretty amazing with some of the things he can do. Of that list of #1 picks, how many of them didnt have question marks coming into the draft?

They had fewer and pretty much all of them were even younger than Simmons (Blake Griffin was a sophomore and only 4 months older at the time of the draft than Simmons will be). If I were to ask you what you personally thought those players' question marks were, I'd probably get some version of "they only scored X points per game," so there's really not much to talk about there.

I said Simmons is most likely a less athletic version of Blake Griffin. That's probably good enough to be an All-Star, and I'm getting absolutely lambasted for it! Griffin was the 2nd-best player in the league during the first two rounds of the playoffs last year. I know, "durr only through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs though because he's not a winner and the Clippers choked," and that's kinda the whole point: it's somehow out of bounds or unnecessarily negative for me to objectively look at Ben Simmons and basically say "he can become an All-Star but probably won't reach that top-10/MVP contender level, and the degree to which he's unwilling or unable to shoot from the outside is unheard of for a top prospect who's not a center" while pretty much all these other players who already did pick up accolades at a young age get hot taked to no end if they haven't won a championship by the end of their rookie contract. I'll still find things to enjoy watching about Ben Simmons down the road even if he's playing on a shitty team, just as I can enjoy the things that DeMarcus Cousins or Dwight Howard or John Wall do at a high level in the NBA.

Quote:
He is going to be a nightmare matchup. Cant just pack it in and make him take jumpers all day.

Uhh....
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Old 03-16-2016, 02:38 AM   #712
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@ nol, you cut out the other parts of my quote (from November 23, 4 games into his LSU career after a 21 point, 20 rebound, 7 assist night vs Marquette) where I also said "I'm not sure what kind of NBA player Simmons projects to be. I think he's a better shooter than he's shown (he was hitting the three down here with LSU in the offseason against pro/semi-pro teams at an OK clip). It's going to come down to how hard he is willing to work."

...and: "Just one biased Aussie's opinion, though."

I stand by all that. Shooting is the single easiest skill in the game of basketball to learn, because it is just you in a gym with a basketball putting in work. But only if the player puts in the effort.

That's the biggest weakness in Simmons' game right now, and the only thing he's missing from the 'Odom' type skillset. Odom was ahead of him in that area, but otherwise:

Odom (RI): 17.6 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 3.8 APG, .482 FG%, .330 3P%, .687 FT%, 0.8 SPG, 1.5 BPG, 3.4 TOPG
Simmons (LSU): 19.6 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 5.0 APG, .560 FG%, .333 3P%, .670 FT%, 2.0 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 3.4 TOPG

Obviously Simmons' 3p% is misleading with the low attempts.
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Old 03-16-2016, 10:27 AM   #713
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Pelton and Ford have an article up on ESPN about this subject. Some notes:

-Every GM Ford spoke with still has Simmons #1, but a couple are wavering (one of the wavering GMs is more intrigued by Bender, but admitted he wouldn't take him #1).

-Statistical projections would have Ingram as a weak #2 pick. The only year in the last 9 drafts the stats would have Ingram as the 2nd best prospect is 2012.

-Stat projections do not believe in Ingram's shooting ability.

-The stat projections have Ingram and Jamaal Murray very close as prospects.
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Old 03-16-2016, 10:38 AM   #714
murrayyyyy
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I think the most interesting draft spot will be how low Buddy Hield drops as he will be penalized for staying 4 years.
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Old 03-16-2016, 10:50 AM   #715
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Originally Posted by nol View Post
They had fewer and pretty much all of them were even younger than Simmons (Blake Griffin was a sophomore and only 4 months older at the time of the draft than Simmons will be). If I were to ask you what you personally thought those players' question marks were, I'd probably get some version of "they only scored X points per game," so there's really not much to talk about there.

04: Howard - Coming out of high school unproven, Not sure what you are getting
05: Bogut - Could he create his own offense and play with more athletic bigs?
06: Bargnani - Unproven. Is he physical enough to play the NBA game
07: Oden - Injuries, shooting ability, does he have enough offense for the NBA level
08: Rose -outside shooting was below average for a guard
09: Griffin - Inconsistent shooting, poor free throw shooting, injury risk due to aggressive nature
10: Wall - another below average shooter for a guard
11: Irving (All-Star at age 20) - injury concerns, not the greatest athlete, inexperience after only 8 college games
12: Davis - shooting, will he score enough to be elite
13: Bennett - enough said
14: Wiggins - long range shooting, inconsistent, drifts when hes not involved in the game
15: Towns - offensive skillset, inexperienced from not playing a lot as a freshmen

I mean yes some of this stuff was nitpicky but a lot of the players have shooting concerns or other concerns on how they would adjust at the next level. I think what I would be most concerned with Simmons at this point is his mental toughness and leadership. Whether or not LSU had below average talent surrounding him as an elite talent he needed to figure out a way to make them all better. The great players in NBA history all found a way to win games and not make excuses.

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Old 03-16-2016, 11:04 AM   #716
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Originally Posted by murrayyyyy View Post
I think the most interesting draft spot will be how low Buddy Hield drops as he will be penalized for staying 4 years.

There's no way he drops below 10th. That dude's work ethic is ridiculous. Besides maybe Dunn, Buddy is the most NBA ready player in the draft. He's going to be a great two-way player. NBA lineups are getting smaller and smaller, so being a 6'4 shooting guard right now is a non-issue. I would not be surprised if he manages to turn himself into a point guard.

I hope he goes to Minnesota, they don't have any shooters.
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Old 03-16-2016, 11:30 AM   #717
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I stand by all that. Shooting is the single easiest skill in the game of basketball to learn, because it is just you in a gym with a basketball putting in work. But only if the player puts in the effort.

Yeah, I was gonna say there's gotta be quite a bit of overlap between the people who gloss over Simmons' shooting and those who believe DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond et al. have never tried shooting a bunch of free throws in a gym before.

Surely most players in the NBA work hard on their shot, and just as surely it's much more common for players to shoot lower percentages in the pros than in college between the longer three-point arc, better defenders, better scouting, and so on. You could go to any NBA game an hour before tip-off and watch people you'd bag on for being horrible shooters go around the arc and nail threes like they're free throws. Ben Simmons would need to tremendously improve just to get to that level.

The biggest weakness in Brandon Ingram's game is that he's weak as hell. He's 18 and had likely never lifted a weight in his life until a year ago, and there are a lot fewer variables involved in "getting older + lifting more weights = stronger" than completely overhauling someone's shot, especially as it pertains to a player who's going to be naturally resistant to changing things considering he's pretty much always been known as the best in his age group.

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That's the biggest weakness in Simmons' game right now, and the only thing he's missing from the 'Odom' type skillset. Odom was ahead of him in that area, but otherwise:

Odom (RI): 17.6 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 3.8 APG, .482 FG%, .330 3P%, .687 FT%, 0.8 SPG, 1.5 BPG, 3.4 TOPG
Simmons (LSU): 19.6 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 5.0 APG, .560 FG%, .333 3P%, .670 FT%, 2.0 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 3.4 TOPG

Obviously Simmons' 3p% is misleading with the low attempts.

That and the defense being more than blocks and steals thing. And also I'm sure that Rhode Island didn't play nearly as fast as LSU did.
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Old 03-16-2016, 12:12 PM   #718
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Originally Posted by wustin View Post
There's no way he drops below 10th. That dude's work ethic is ridiculous. Besides maybe Dunn, Buddy is the most NBA ready player in the draft. He's going to be a great two-way player. NBA lineups are getting smaller and smaller, so being a 6'4 shooting guard right now is a non-issue. I would not be surprised if he manages to turn himself into a point guard.

I hope he goes to Minnesota, they don't have any shooters.

You would think he'd be a fit for Minnesota but everyone seems to think Dunn is going there. I think the age factor will hurt Valentine/Hield when compared to Brown/Murray/Murray (Kentucky and Washington). It also seems to be a draft where there are plenty of bigs to get in the way that will get taken earlier than they should.
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Old 03-16-2016, 12:17 PM   #719
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04: Howard - Coming out of high school unproven, Not sure what you are getting
05: Bogut - Could he create his own offense and play with more athletic bigs?
06: Bargnani - Unproven. Is he physical enough to play the NBA game
07: Oden - Injuries, shooting ability, does he have enough offense for the NBA level
08: Rose -outside shooting was below average for a guard
09: Griffin - Inconsistent shooting, poor free throw shooting, injury risk due to aggressive nature
10: Wall - another below average shooter for a guard
11: Irving (All-Star at age 20) - injury concerns, not the greatest athlete, inexperience after only 8 college games
12: Davis - shooting, will he score enough to be elite
13: Bennett - enough said
14: Wiggins - long range shooting, inconsistent, drifts when hes not involved in the game
15: Towns - offensive skillset, inexperienced from not playing a lot as a freshmen

You just proved my point by citing shooting/scoring concerns for pretty much every player I said I'd prefer over Simmons (going with the "you don't know about high school players" for a talent like Howard as if it were 1995 all over again was pretty funny too. In 2004 the past two Rookies of the Year and the defending MVP had come out of high school).

One, there's having questions about outside shooting and then there's another level of concern for a player who attempts 3 threes the entire season while looking afraid to shoot from anywhere outside the paint (also, players like Rose and Wall are still below-average shooters, which points again to how there's only so much you can realistically expect someone to improve in that regard). Two, it didn't take a genius to see that players like Anthony Davis and KAT were in fact very skilled offensively and could have put up bigger numbers had they not been playing for teams that were beating the crap out of everybody (advanced stat trick: multiply Towns' college numbers out so that he's playing the same number of minutes per game as Simmons, and he's averaging 17 points and 11 boards while anchoring the best defense in the history of college basketball. Are those numbers sufficiently big?); also any good post player stuck playing college basketball for a year has to deal with rampant flopping from opponents and as a result is more concerned with staying out of foul trouble than trying to show off offensive moves. All those players got better as the college season went on, both because they were younger and had to physically adjust more to the college game, but also because they played for really good teams where it took some time to assert themselves in the pecking order. On the other hand, Simmons did not save his best for last: the best way of looking at it is that he was frustrated with his crappy team and coaching staff and checked out. That sounds bad, but it's at least better than the idea that once teams saw him in action more they were able to figure out his unorthodox game and limit its effectiveness.

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Originally Posted by Atocep View Post
-Statistical projections would have Ingram as a weak #2 pick. The only year in the last 9 drafts the stats would have Ingram as the 2nd best prospect is 2012.

-Stat projections do not believe in Ingram's shooting ability.

Well, yeah. It's a weak draft all around. Simmons would not be the #1 pick in any of the last 9 drafts other than 2013, so it makes sense that a player who hasn't definitively grabbed that #1 spot from him wouldn't be particularly strong historically as a #2 pick.

Define what 'believe' means. If they think he'd be a 32-34 percent three-point shooter that's still enough to make someone go out there and guard him.

I can look at the numbers and know that the free throw shooting is weird and a good indicator that he's not necessarily gonna be some sniper hitting 40 plus percent, but looking with my own eyes and seeing that he's got a pretty quick release and is making a lot of his threes off screens, jab steps, and step-backs (rather than someone like Justise Winslow last year who was getting open spot-up looks resulting from teams double/triple teaming Okafor) tells me it's not going to be as pessimistic as what a model would spit out.

In fact, now that I see it in writing I'm almost positive that's what's actually happening: if someone's tweaking the model from year to year they're likely saying FT shooting must be more of a factor than before previously believed due to notable cases from the top of the draft last year like Winslow and Towns (who looks very comfortable shooting NBA 3s, and based on his role at Kentucky the only statistical evidence you could really use to predict that would be his free throws). In my eyes, it's much easier to look at a model like that, say "that's nice, but Winslow was shooting super open standstill shots, didn't even shoot that many of them, and never shot a very high percentage in any of the youth national team/AAU/high school competition scouts had seen him in before" rather than get too twisted up in a model like that. Also did some digging and Ingram shot 79% on free throws as a HS senior, so go figure. It can kinda jump around like that when there aren't many attempts.


I'd also say relative age is a very relevant factor that most statistical models out there fail to incorporate. Here is a pretty extensive look at it in baseball, and of course you can cherry pick examples to the contrary but on average it surely holds up when all else is roughly equal. It's not like Ingram received the accolades he did in high school and had all the big schools recruiting him off of potential alone, and if he'd been held back and was currently finishing up his senior year of high school playing against people his own age you can easily imagine that he'd be getting more hype.

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Old 03-16-2016, 05:55 PM   #720
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Yeah, I was gonna say there's gotta be quite a bit of overlap between the people who gloss over Simmons' shooting and those who believe DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond et al. have never tried shooting a bunch of free throws in a gym before.

FT shooting != shooting. FT shooting is probably 60-70% mental, jump shooting is 100% repetition without thinking.

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Surely most players in the NBA work hard on their shot,

Sorry, but comparitively speaking, I don't believe that's true at all. For every Kawhi Leonard and Bruce Bolden there's 100 guys who never significantly improve, most because they don't put in the amount of hours outside of normal training hours that you need to become a great shooter. Each day.

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and just as surely it's much more common for players to shoot lower percentages in the pros than in college between the longer three-point arc,

Also don't know that that's true - a lot of guys become better shooters once they make the pros because they work on it, often because what got them points in college and high school - athleticism, size, etc. - aren't there for them anymore and they have to adapt if they want to stick. Or just because they no longer have mandated practice hours and study time to focus on and can just hit the gym.

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better defenders, better scouting, and so on. You could go to any NBA game an hour before tip-off and watch people you'd bag on for being horrible shooters go around the arc and nail threes like they're free throws.

Yep, you could. You could also go watch the great shooters at the arena a couple of hours before the game getting up shots, and see if those bad shooters are there doing the same. Chucking up some uncontested, no pressure jumpshots in warmups is not the same as putting up hundreds of game-speed shooting reps.

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The biggest weakness in Brandon Ingram's game is that he's weak as hell. He's 18 and had likely never lifted a weight in his life until a year ago, and there are a lot fewer variables involved in "getting older + lifting more weights = stronger" than completely overhauling someone's shot, especially as it pertains to a player who's going to be naturally resistant to changing things considering he's pretty much always been known as the best in his age group.

OK, sure. I'm not talking about Ingram though.

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That and the defense being more than blocks and steals thing. And also I'm sure that Rhode Island didn't play nearly as fast as LSU did.

You use the words 'I'm sure' a lot, when you actually aren't. How many Rhode Island games did you watch back then? I don't know how strong the Atlantic 10 was in the late 90s, but I'm guessing not as strong as the SEC this year.

LSU were as terrible on D as they were on O as a team. Blocks and steals do not equal defense, but they are encouraging signs that a guy is at least active on D. Stick him in a situation with a coach who actually knows what he's doing and who knows, maybe he might even improve. It's been known to happen to 19/20 year olds after they hit the pros.
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Old 03-16-2016, 06:38 PM   #721
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That and the defense being more than blocks and steals thing. And also I'm sure that Rhode Island didn't play nearly as fast as LSU did.

The internet is a magical place.

1998-99 Rhode Island 70.4 possessions per game (205th in D1)
2015-16 LSU 74.7 possessions per game (43rd in D1)

And in even more of a "well I'll be darned" random fact, that Rhode Island pace in 98-99 would be merely 0.1 possession short of being 205th this year as well.
(i.e. I'm surprised that the game hasn't actually sped up -- by possessions at least -- in nearly twenty years. My perception would have leaned otherwise.)

edit to add: That season the A-10 had three teams make the NCAA tournament
#6 seed Temple, lost to Duke in Elite 8
#11 seed George Washington, lost to Indiana in round one
#12 seed Rhode Island, lost to Charlotte in round one
(Xavier got an NIT bid, reached final four)

This year's SEC also has three teams in the NCAA field: #3 seed A&M, #4 Kentucky, #11 Vandy
There are four SEC teams in this year's NIT
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Old 03-16-2016, 06:39 PM   #722
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There have been maybe 2-3 rookies in the past 5 years who'd be able to upgrade a 45-50 win team in their first year, and without naming names, they'd be contributing on the defensive end while being the 4th option on offense. That's just not Simmons' game - nothing wrong with that, but saying he's good enough to bypass the struggles all rookies face is overselling him by quite a bit.
I've watched 90% of Celtics games this year, realize that Simmons would be cutting into the role that Evan Turner and Jonas Jerebko kind of fill, and think he could easily step into that role. Simmons wouldn't upgrade every 45-50 win team, and wouldn't immediately go into a ball-dominant role that you hope he'll eventually grow into if you pick him top 3, but yes there is a pretty obvious place for him to step into and help the Celtics roster. Context matters.
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Lamar Odom, despite being passive/mentally unengaged/on lots of drugs or whatever else you'd like to call it, was able to do all the things we like about Ben Simmons plus shoot the ball and defend. He spent his career in the Western Conference and thus had to compete for All-Star forward spots (they still had center on the ballot then, which resulted in stuff like Brad Miller and Jamal Magloire in the ASG) with the likes of Duncan, KG, Dirk, CWebb, T-Mac, and Amare'.

So we're talking about a guy who would've made 3-5 All-Star games just if the West hadn't been so stacked relative to the East, who was a key contributor on two championship teams, whose skillset was clearly more suited to today's NBA (as opposed to being either a relatively skinny guy playing PF in the best era for PFs in NBA history or a SF sharing the court with two non-shooting big guys), and who did this all despite having some very real mentality/off the court issues, and then you're saying that Ben Simmons, worst-case, is a "mentally focused" version of this player. That's saying his worst-case scenario is a Hall of Famer.
So there's absolutely no middle ground between a player who made 0 All-Star teams and 0 All-NBA teams and was on his 3rd NBA team by age 25, and saying Simmons' worst-case scenario is a Hall of Famer. Got it. (Hint: the fact you feel the need to pre-emptively defend Odom's lack of recognition is a good sign maybe you shouldn't even include that argument.)
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I said Simmons is most likely a less athletic version of Blake Griffin. That's probably good enough to be an All-Star, and I'm getting absolutely lambasted for it!
No, you get absolutely lambasted when you say absurd definitive statements like Simmons or any one & done has zero chance to go #1 overall, when you misrepresent what other people have said, or when you say condescending shit like this.
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Originally Posted by nol View Post
They had fewer and pretty much all of them were even younger than Simmons (Blake Griffin was a sophomore and only 4 months older at the time of the draft than Simmons will be). If I were to ask you what you personally thought those players' question marks were, I'd probably get some version of "they only scored X points per game," so there's really not much to talk about there.

The hilarious part is that we're in pretty complete agreement about Simmons(and Groundhog at least is as well - apologies to others who I think are in the same camp, but I don't want to misrepresent opinions of less vocal people). He's a very NBA-ready prospect who can step in and be a role player immediately who likely ends up as a multiple time all-star but falls short of MVP candidate level, who's a strong candidate to go #1 overall mainly because it's a weak draft at the top. Whether you want to call that rich man's Evan Turner, less explosive Blake Griffin, or god forbid, use Lamar Odom as the shorthand comparison is up to you. (And fwiw, I'm completely certain if I had used less explosive Blake Griffin as my initial comparison you'd have found a reason why that was outrageous too...) You know a lot when it comes to basketball, but so do some of us, and I have zero idea why you feel the need to write a 5 page magnum opus rehashing all the arguments that were implied when I succinctly stated that I think Ingram vs Simmons is a clear debate at the top, but I'd take Simmons in a heartbeat in the Celtics rather unique scenario. And it gets extremely tiresome when you continually try to misrepresent what we've stated in the past or use some small nitpick to go off on a huge rant while ignoring the main points of a post.
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Old 03-17-2016, 02:22 AM   #723
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I'd love to not be 'condescending' or write a long 'rant' but the second I leave out some minor detail I think is pretty common sense or could at least be easily searched for, it's all "you didn't talk about Rhode Island's strength of schedule in 1999 so your argument is invalid." Well, I didn't think it was sufficiently different to be worth mentioning (especially because Vanderbilt wouldn't have made the NCAAs in the 1999 format, so the A-10 having more tourney teams plus Rhode Island not scheduling a ton of cupcakes would have not looked too charitable there), but if you really want to dig deeper Jon put it out there. Also saying LSU plays at a high pace was not really going out on a limb considering the shorter college shot clock this year combined with how many Simmons highlights I'd seen where he scored 15-20 points while getting all his baskets but one or two in transition or semi-transition.

Anyway, Odom = more gifted all-around than Simmons. Simmons = has his head on straighter than Odom. Those two more or less cancel out so it makes sense to say Simmons can have an impact on that level. That's not to be confused with "mentally focused/driven Odom" - that's the Magic Johnson-like player that now seems to be established as an unfair comparison for Simmons to live up to.

I brought up Odom's lack of appreciation anticipating the "you compared him to a player who was never an all-star so you must think he sucks" backlash, which didn't disappoint (also got a good laugh about the attempt to use "3rd NBA team by age 25" as an insult when one of the times he was traded for SHAQ). Somehow, people were much dumber about basketball even just 10 years ago, so in addition to the extenuating circumstances I already mentioned (playing PF in the Western Conference in the early-mid 2000s when 6 of the top 10 or so PFs of all time were were active and all in the West) I'm pretty confident that with the proliferation of advanced stats Odom would have been recognized as a better all-around player than guys like Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison who ended up with 5 All-Star appearances between them.

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No, you get absolutely lambasted when you say absurd definitive statements like Simmons or any one & done has zero chance to go #1 overall

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If he can get over to America in a reasonable amount of time, I can see Dragan Bender, whose team played an exhibition in Chicago today and will play in New York on Sunday, ending up as the 1st pick in the 2016 draft. He's a better prospect than Porzingis and I don't see any of the one-and-done players rising to the level of a Towns.

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when you misrepresent what other people have said

I applaud your commitment to being dumb and and a hypocrite, but you can drop it now. I can see it =! it will definitely happen. Let's break down that post even further:

"If he can make it to America in a reasonable amount of time" - Bender played 20+ minutes in that exhibition I was referring to and played pretty well in a win against a team that's in first place in Italy's top league. Pretty much immediately after that game, he moved from the 5-10 range to the top 3 in most mock drafts. Since then, he doesn't really get minutes even in the Israeli domestic league. That to me seems like his club (which has him locked in to some like 7-year deal) realized "Oh shit, this guy could already get drafted high enough this year to reach his buyout. Better slow it down." You can argue that part, but either way the first qualifying statement doesn't look like it will be met. I preferred the idea of going for the double whammy of picking him, stashing him for a year when he likely wasn't going to be physically ready to do much in the NBA anyway, and securing better odds for a high pick in next year's draft where there are better prospects available at the top to the idea of going forward with Simmons and trying to find the very specific type of players needed to maximize his abilities, but I don't prefer Bender (who, like Simmons, had a neutral performance relative to my expectations going into the season) enough to wait two or more years.

"He's a better prospect than Porzingis" - he hasn't gotten enough playing time this year to prove or disprove that, and I already pointed out in Porzingis' case that getting minimial PT at that age in Europe doesn't automatically mean the player's not good. Just for fun, Bender's averaging 16 points, 7.3 boards, 1.9 assists:2 turnovers, 2.7 made 3s (44% shooting), 2.4 blocks, and 2 steals per 36 minutes in the domestic league. Porzingis in 2014: 16 points, 6.6 boards, 0.8 assists:2 turnovers 1.2 3s (33% shooting) 2.3 blocks and 1.4 steals. And for the inevitable "well those numbers don't mean anything without the context of whether the Israeli league is better than Spain's" it looks like close enough to a wash to me using the informal test of "how many names do I recognize from NCAA/NBA summer league/international play?" Spain's has 2-3 stacked teams out of 18 whereas even the mid-to-low level teams in Israel have seemingly better American imports than do their Spanish counterparts.

"I don't see any of the one-and-done players rising to the level of a Towns" - OMG WTF how could you definitively say that so soon rabble rabble rabble.

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The hilarious part is that we're in pretty complete agreement about Simmons... He's a very NBA-ready prospect who can step in and be a role player immediately

Maybe now you are after hedging and seeing the big-name basketball writers say as much, but you acted like I was pulling stuff out of my ass for saying before the season that Simmons was not going to be on the level of a player like Towns when that was actually (like everything else I write) the result of quite a bit of deliberation on my part.

If I were listing the best qualities about Simmons as a player, "NBA ready" would not crack the top 20. He has never been close to being a role player his entire life, and asking him to do so would be a huge adjustment for a rookie. If a team hands him the ball from the start it would be a rehash of Mudiay (who's been playing well lately but also seems like someone who was considered more "NBA ready" than other players his age based on looking muscular rather than how his game would immediately translate) or really any other young point guard where there will be ugly moments aplenty between turning the ball over, lapsing defensively, and getting used to finishing against more athletic defenders with teams clogging up the lane on him.

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Old 03-17-2016, 08:01 AM   #724
Brian Swartz
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Can't we all just get along?

I also find it interesting that 90% of the conversation lately is about people who aren't even in the NBA yet. Is the current season really that boring, or is it just more fun to insult each other?
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Old 03-17-2016, 08:55 AM   #725
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How about those Detroit Pistons? Winning some games and then losing about as many. Maybe they'll make the playoffs, but maybe they won't. It's close.

The San Antonio Spurs are doing well, but Golden State is doing even better. It's a shame one of those fine teams will have to lose in the playoffs.

The Philadelphia 76ers are losing a lot of games -- PU, they stink! Isn't it funny that the team that loses the most games in the NBA usually gets a high draft pick? That's kind of backwards, wouldn't you say?
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Old 03-17-2016, 11:47 AM   #726
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How about those Detroit Pistons? Winning some games and then losing about as many. Maybe they'll make the playoffs, but maybe they won't. It's close.

The San Antonio Spurs are doing well, but Golden State is doing even better. It's a shame one of those fine teams will have to lose in the playoffs.

The Philadelphia 76ers are losing a lot of games -- PU, they stink! Isn't it funny that the team that loses the most games in the NBA usually gets a high draft pick? That's kind of backwards, wouldn't you say?

Ugh
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Old 03-17-2016, 02:33 PM   #727
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the regular season is just such a drag if you don´t have tons of time or a clear No1 team to follow. I am basically over it at this point and won´t turn in much before the POs...

@ nol: The Israeli league is light years behind the spanish league apart from the Top 2/3 in terms of quality, even with less teams. Using the "how many names do i recognize" logic is insane, no offense, considering that Israels non-top-tier teams attract basically zero talent other than a few 2nd-tier americans (there´s a reason they go to Israeli team outside the top3 for much lower wages than comparable teams in basically half a dozen other leagues). You might recognize their names easier, that does not mean they are actually good fits for the European leagues.

In contrast, even bottom half spanish team attract NT players from all over Europe in adition to the top-tier americans, i.e. the ones that are actually a fit in terms of playstyle and coveted by other leagues. (not to mention the homegrown talent is way higher).

I think part of the problem here is that you tend to argue very much in "the absolute" rather than actually leaving something up for discussion. Which tends to obscure you valid points a bit ... (And "Benders lack of PT says anything but not that he can´t play" is among them Guy is going to be really good)

Also: Please nobody dare drag me into this for this one comment, i have valiantly refused to get involved for weeks now ! Just know i disagreed and agreed with everybody at some point !

I actually got together with a buddy of mine who works/worked with a german agency and a couple pro clubs in scouting and he´s utterly shocked how high some of the Euros/Internationals are ranked this year (he says that until half a year ago a couple were on the short list for a few clubs here, which means they realistically thought theyd come to the 2nd-tier german league ...). From what little i have seen i agree. The fact that theres like 10 Internationals that could be first rounders is less due to their class and more due to the down-year for College prospects. Lots of interesting players to be sure, but there will be some epic busts in there and of the successfull ones, most will be of the stash-and-wait variety.
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Old 03-17-2016, 04:53 PM   #728
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@ nol: The Israeli league is light years behind the spanish league apart from the Top 2/3 in terms of quality, even with less teams. Using the "how many names do i recognize" logic is insane, no offense, considering that Israels non-top-tier teams attract basically zero talent other than a few 2nd-tier americans (there´s a reason they go to Israeli team outside the top3 for much lower wages than comparable teams in basically half a dozen other leagues). You might recognize their names easier, that does not mean they are actually good fits for the European leagues.

In contrast, even bottom half spanish team attract NT players from all over Europe in adition to the top-tier americans, i.e. the ones that are actually a fit in terms of playstyle and coveted by other leagues. (not to mention the homegrown talent is way higher).

Which is why I said "close enough." Both players were pretty much playing garbage time at that age and were in different club situations (main thing being there are clearly better players in front of Bender and more pressure to win now at MTA than with Porzingis in Seville). I looked at the names in Israel to make sure it was at least better competition than somewhere like China or Australia, then looked at the teams in Spain and saw that the league is less competitive from top to bottom than I anticipated, with the Madrid and Barcelona winning 90-plus percent of the games they don't play against each other.

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I think part of the problem here is that you tend to argue very much in "the absolute" rather than actually leaving something up for discussion. Which tends to obscure you valid points a bit ...

It's not a problem for me. If you're not taking ownership of an opinion you're just regurgitating something that 99 percent of the time has been stated in much greater detail on ESPN/Twitter/Sportsdigs. This thread gets posted in a couple times a week, and most of it's generic water cooler stuff like "pretty good game in ____ going on tonight" "or team X is doing good/bad over the past few games."

If you don't like something I say you're free to ignore it and then make fun of me when I end up being grossly wrong, I honestly don't care if that happens because I'm just trying to make sure I'm not pulling a Danny Ainge and saying stuff like "Oh, of course we would've taken Durant over Oden if we had the first pick" 10 years after the fact when there's absolutely nothing at stake. If someone's gonna act like I have a dumb opinion and ignore my track record of being right I will explain my rationale.

Ironically, between the lack of activity and the extent to which what I says get nitpicked, I only post extremely safe opinions and am continually surprised to see how vehemently people disagree with them. Stuff like saying with Draymond Green's defensive impact would surely be among the top 30 players in the league even when there were several All-Stars I would've chosen him over last season (which was met with people saying I was an idiot for considering him better than Kevin Love or Pau Gasol or just saying 'No way' without even listing additional better players after I'd spotted them 20 or so options to choose from), or that teams like the Suns and the Bucks were not automatically set primed to become perennial playoff teams just because they had one decent season, or that the crop of current college freshmen was not going to be very good.

Last edited by nol : 03-17-2016 at 05:11 PM.
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Old 03-17-2016, 06:06 PM   #729
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I also find it interesting that 90% of the conversation lately is about people who aren't even in the NBA yet. Is the current season really that boring, or is it just more fun to insult each other?

TBH I haven't found this a very entertaining season. Despite the Cavs record, they just aren't a fun team to watch, unless you like watching LeBron shoot iso mid-range jumpers and Kevin Love brick open 3s. LeBron's transition to grumpy old man has been swift and pretty effective at killing team chemistry - he's basically become Kobe Bryant, and I think it's largely his own frustration with himself at starting to become older and not do all the things he used to. Haven't seen LeBron miss so many shots at the basket in traffic since... well... that first Finals he played vs the Spurs years and years ago.

Like everyone else I was enjoying the Warriors burn through everyone the first couple of months, but like I said a few pages ago, I've kinda gotten over watching Curry shoot 3s from 6 feet behind the arc. Spurs are probably my favourite team to watch right now because of Kawhi's emergence, but I'm watching a lot more European basketball than NBA this year, that's for sure.
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Old 03-17-2016, 09:33 PM   #730
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Spurs are still unbeaten at home btw. Kinda unfortunate they have to play the Warriors twice at home the rest of the way, otherwise it would be quite possible they´d stay that way. (85-86 Celtics are the only team with only 1 loss, but i was actually a little surprised how many teams have lost only 4 or fewer at home)

Tony Parker with 16 Assists in 21 Minutes.

Portland is kinda fun to watch, that backcourt duo is likely not what you´d want once you are a contender, but until then it´s certainly entertaining.

Also, the Grizzlies are limping towards the playoffs, wow. Todays starting lineup: Allen, Stephenson, Barnes, Jamychal Green and Ryan Hollins. And the bench is basically a run-off-the-mill d-league lineup. 2 of their bench guys (who played 10+ Minutes) don´t even have a yahoo profile page

The Bucks messed up getting Monroe it seems (i might have labeled it a good move i´m afraid ). Even if the bench played great today and played the entire 4th (with Giannis and the rest of the starters sitting): This "7 foot PG" thing with Giannis definitely has legs (20/9/9 in 13 games as the de-facto PG with a very solid 3.3 A/TO margin) and opens up all kinds of possibilities for your lineup and strategy. Would be neat if they managed to get a couple combo-guards who can shoot and guard PGs. I still think that Parker is redundant in a way, even if he has looked better individually of late.

Maybe get a stretch 4 and have Giannis guard SFs or start another perimeter player with Giannis guarding 4s.

So yeah, if you are bored and look for sth interesting, watch a Bucks game.
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Last edited by whomario : 03-17-2016 at 10:12 PM.
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Old 03-17-2016, 10:04 PM   #731
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Stuff like saying with Draymond Green's defensive impact would surely be among the top 30 players in the league even when there were several All-Stars I would've chosen him over last season (which was met with people saying I was an idiot for considering him better than Kevin Love or Pau Gasol or just saying 'No way' without even listing additional better players after I'd spotted them 20 or so options to choose from), or that teams like the Suns and the Bucks were not automatically set primed to become perennial playoff teams just because they had one decent season, or that the crop of current college freshmen was not going to be very good.

I'm not sure about Simmons, but that is one high quality sentence.
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Old 03-17-2016, 11:02 PM   #732
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Matt Barnes is having himself a hell of a 2015-16. Henson was ejected for staring him down after blocking his shot and got ejected for it (must've been the 2nd tech?) and exits via the tunnel... and then Barnes chases after him down the tunnel, with about 4 Griz and stadium staff in hot pursuit.
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Old 03-18-2016, 12:01 AM   #733
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Wesley Matthews is just having lingering effects of the Achilles tear or has he morphed into full blown garbage?
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Old 03-18-2016, 03:11 AM   #734
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I guess I just think there are a lot more interesting things going on then a lot of people do. If somebody is sick of watching the Cavs and Warriors play, my question is, what would it take to entertain you?

Personally, I'm interested in whether the new-found conference balance lasts ... and seeing whether Lue makes any lasting changes in the Cavs compared to Blatt ... and the whole record chase in the West by Golden State ... and I've started following Toronto more closely, wondering if they can make a big step forward in the playoffs this year after recent flameouts(I think so, though I could do without the hero balling) ... and whether either OKC or the Clippers will get their act together in time to be a serious foil to SA/GS ... and how things work out in the East playoff race between all of the up-and-down teams after the top 2 ... and how the bottom four in the West end up with Memphis falling, Houston dysfunctional, Dallas seeming to have hit the wall, and Portland generally overachieving ... and so on.

I guess this stuff isn't nearly as boring to me as it is to a lot of people. There are many around here who have different perspectives on the game than me, and some who know more than I do. I like reading what they think about what is going to impact the game this year, the stuff with the incoming players is mostly more like worrying about what you're going to have for dinner when you haven't had breakfast yet.

*shrug*
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Old 03-18-2016, 04:59 AM   #735
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I'll watch the Cavs and NBA more when the playoffs start. For me it was more fun when the team was bad but I got to see young players every night. I liked Dion Waiters and was excited for Anthony Bennett. I have no taste I guess. I felt the same way about the Pirates from about 2008-2012. I'm weird. Now I'd rarely watch the Pirates
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Old 03-18-2016, 07:40 AM   #736
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Originally Posted by Brian Swartz View Post
I guess I just think there are a lot more interesting things going on then a lot of people do. If somebody is sick of watching the Cavs and Warriors play, my question is, what would it take to entertain you?

Don't get me wrong, this Warriors team might be the greatest team I've ever seen, including the Jordan-era Bulls. It's just that, as someone who is not a Warriors fan, I don't really enjoy watching blowouts. They run a lot of great sets and hit some crazy shots, but they are so far ahead of everyone else right now, that I have little interest in watching them beat on teams during the regular season.

The Cavs though? I've been a fan for decades, and they are an enigma. How can so much talent look so uninterested on the court and still manage to win just enough games to remain the favourite in the conference?
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Old 03-18-2016, 09:20 AM   #737
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I'll watch the Cavs and NBA more when the playoffs start. For me it was more fun when the team was bad but I got to see young players every night. I liked Dion Waiters and was excited for Anthony Bennett. I have no taste I guess. I felt the same way about the Pirates from about 2008-2012. I'm weird. Now I'd rarely watch the Pirates

Kyrie Irving the other night...played 38 minutes, shot the ball 28 times, 33 points, 1 assist. He and Love are both mediocre defenders but I still expect them to make it to the finals getting carried by Lebron.
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Old 03-18-2016, 12:18 PM   #738
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I guess I just think there are a lot more interesting things going on then a lot of people do. If somebody is sick of watching the Cavs and Warriors play, my question is, what would it take to entertain you?

Something other than a one-team league? Because, pretty much, that's what this season seems to be.

The East looks like a non-factor, and a largely uninteresting non-factor at that. That leaves basically San Antonio and the question of whether they can win at least one game at home in the WCF. As long as GS stays healthy in the rotation, this thing is over before it begins. And they're neither particularly unlikable enough to root against nor genuinely likable enough for me to root for from 3,000 miles away.

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more like worrying about what you're going to have for dinner when you haven't had breakfast yet.

Wait. You mean there are people that don't do that?
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Old 03-18-2016, 12:23 PM   #739
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I think the most interesting draft spot will be how low Buddy Hield drops as he will be penalized for staying 4 years.

I was googling this today because I wasn't sure if a 6'3" SG who can't drive to the basket and prefers the outside shot would really be able to handle NBA defenses. I think he's surely a lottery pick, but it's probably going to have to do more with how he performs in pre-draft camps.

If OU somehow makes the Final Four, that'd get him in good territory, too. But he was probably a late first-rounder last year, so he was one of the rare ones who surely improved his stock coming back for a senior season, even if it's a down year as far as stars go save for Simmons.
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Old 03-19-2016, 05:25 AM   #740
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Something other than a one-team league? Because, pretty much, that's what this season seems to be

If you are only looking at who is going to win the championship, I can see how you would look at it that way. That's not the only thing I watch. I find it almost as interesting to see a lesser team making them most of itself than looking only at the best. I didn't think it was boring when Jordan's Bulls dominated, and I don't think that was an uncommon sentiment. To each their own of course.
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Old 03-19-2016, 02:08 PM   #741
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I was googling this today because I wasn't sure if a 6'3" SG who can't drive to the basket and prefers the outside shot would really be able to handle NBA defenses. I think he's surely a lottery pick, but it's probably going to have to do more with how he performs in pre-draft camps.

If OU somehow makes the Final Four, that'd get him in good territory, too. But he was probably a late first-rounder last year, so he was one of the rare ones who surely improved his stock coming back for a senior season, even if it's a down year as far as stars go save for Simmons.

He's a little bit worse at shooting and better at everything else than Anthony Morrow - that kind of player sounds like a very solid starter. I'm not usually crazy about college seniors, but it's a lot better that his increased production is a result of becoming a top-notch shooter rather than just being a man among boys. In this draft it's not like there are even that many high upside players you could talk yourself into over him.

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Old 03-19-2016, 02:15 PM   #742
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He's a little bit worse at shooting and better at everything else than Anthony Morrow

.... a guy who went undrafted
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Old 03-19-2016, 03:25 PM   #743
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He's a little bit worse at shooting and better at everything else than Anthony Morrow - that kind of player sounds like a very solid starter. I'm not usually crazy about college seniors, but it's a lot better that his increased production is a result of becoming a top-notch shooter rather than just being a man among boys. In this draft it's not like there are even that many high upside players you could talk yourself into over him.

Hield is a worse shooter than Marrow? He's 1st in 3 pointers made this season(130 3PM) and hit 46.4% from that distance. That's almost 50 made compared to Marrow when he was @ Tech his senior year and at a better percentage.
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Old 03-19-2016, 03:45 PM   #744
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.... a guy who went undrafted

Oh, I had no clue that Anthony Morrow went undrafted. That changes everything because nobody drafted outside the lottery has ever been a decent or good NBA player to whom you can compare a lottery pick

Another nice game from Ingram today. Defensively he started out down low guarding a guy 3 years older and probably 20 pounds heavier and when Duke went to zone, he was covering a lot of ground on the perimeter.

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Hield is a worse shooter than Marrow? He's 1st in 3 pointers made this season(130 3PM) and hit 46.4% from that distance. That's almost 50 made compared to Marrow when he was @ Tech his senior year and at a better percentage.

So Anthony Morrow got much better at shooting after leaving college. That's not something you can automatically assume about every player; there's only one Steph Curry in the NBA, for example. I responded to the idea that Buddy Hield couldn't fit in the NBA by comparing him favorably to someone who has clearly been able to handle NBA defenses by shooting it really well and not doing much of anything else, but I suppose being conservative and saying he won't automatically shoot it as well as one of the top 5 three-point specialists (for example, Hield doesn't have as quick of a release and will also likely have more defensive/ball-handling responsibilities than Morrow) in the league is an insult? I talked about this with Kevin Pelton before (he was actually the one who said probably not as good a shooter as Morrow) and he thought it to be a good comparison, but I guess it isn't enough for your lofty standards.

Last edited by nol : 03-19-2016 at 04:18 PM.
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Old 03-19-2016, 03:46 PM   #745
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Being a 6'3 two-guard isn't much of a big deal nowadays. It just kinda sucks that Oklahoma plays with a 3-guard backcourt.
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Old 03-19-2016, 06:29 PM   #746
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I talked about this with Kevin Pelton before (he was actually the one who said probably not as good a shooter as Morrow) and he thought it to be a good comparison, but I guess it isn't enough for your lofty standards.

The Kevin Pelton? OMG. Maybe he can explain how his SCHOENE had the Rockets as a top 10 defense coming into the season. His system seems to rely too much on players in the same situation with SCHOENE. You can only compare 4 year NCAA guards together and there haven't been that many that made the NBA lately(according to most accounts of SCHOENE that I've read). Anything with less than 4 years throws off his projections for comparison of players and is not allowed. Not a huge fan of his system but they are in every sport (Clay Davenport has done this for a lone time with regards to MLB).
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Old 03-20-2016, 06:22 AM   #747
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Boris Diaw might be the single strangest, most underrated player ever who totally deserves not to be rated higher.

(also, Warriors missed 3 rotation guys in Iggy, Bogut and Ezeli and were on the 2nd night of a back-to-back)
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Old 03-20-2016, 09:05 AM   #748
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Dwight Howard of Houston Rockets applies sticky substance to game ball

Found out how the Rockets can play better defense, having Howard put stickem on the ball. Brilliant!
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Old 03-20-2016, 09:19 AM   #749
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Boris Diaw might be the single strangest, most underrated player ever who totally deserves not to be rated higher.

(also, Warriors missed 3 rotation guys in Iggy, Bogut and Ezeli and were on the 2nd night of a back-to-back)

He was a well-regarded player when he was on the Suns. He kinda helped saved that team when Amare was out.
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Old 03-20-2016, 07:27 PM   #750
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He was a well-regarded player when he was on the Suns. He kinda helped saved that team when Amare was out.

I know, good memories Maybe "underrated" is the wrong word, though people still always seem to talk about him in a "smirky" way. What i mean is that he has soooo much more impact than pople realize. For 20-25 minutes a game he basically does 80% of what Draymond does (and in an alternate history where he gets drafted by the Warriors a couple years back, who knows about the remaining 20) and very few role players have ever managed to influence games the way he has without being a scorer.
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