12-31-2005, 08:53 AM | #701 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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We have all kinds of time to discuss this plan.
If Blade is lying about his role and is a demon, then we get a demon. If Blade is telling the truth about his role and is not a demon, then we still have eight humans going into night actions. Not so if we lynch another human. Also, I need to tweak my numbers a little bit. If we assume that we would not lynch the known elemental today, then ... Random chance of getting a demon today = 3/12 = 25%. |
12-31-2005, 08:56 AM | #702 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Now that sounds better. I'll have to think about it. It sounds like my wife has a lot of plans for us today, starting very soon. I probably won't be in much today.
Hoops, I genuinely hope you're on the level.
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12-31-2005, 09:04 AM | #703 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
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AE, I am on the level. I'm risking a fair amount putting this plan out there if I'm correct with my trusts (and I'm pretty confident in them) because I'm substantially tightening up the net on the demons. Which will make me a big target for future evenings.
I'm happy to still be around this morning. And I feel like the demons made a bad play with Saldana last night. For all of the support I gave him on the board yesterday I was not 100% sold on him as a human. But today there is no way that I'm going after Cronin. |
12-31-2005, 09:09 AM | #704 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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I can definitely agree going after saldana was bad. I think they may have been trying to set up st.cronin.
We'll see. For now, I'll buy into your plan.
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12-31-2005, 09:16 AM | #705 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
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I'll start the ball rolling ...
Vote Blade Blade, note that I largely believe you and I'm giving you the power to kill me with your choice if you are in fact what you say you are. This plan ensures you get a chance to use your power, rather than have the wolves eat you at night. Finally, I've posted what I can to narrow the scope of your decision. I think this is a very positive direction for you if you are a human and a very negative direction for you if you have been deceiving us. |
12-31-2005, 09:30 AM | #706 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
Just read all the overnight stuff once. I'll have to look at it again, but I think I'm down with the idea. I'm still a little uncomfortable not being on hoops's trust list that this thing is based on, when some fishy folk are on it. But I'm sure Blade has his own trust list, quite separate from both me and hoops. I'll hold off on my vote now, but see myself as likely to. |
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12-31-2005, 12:29 PM | #707 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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You can all vote me, allow me to use my power. Yesterday hoops would have gone if you had all tried to lynch me. I think he will again if you do. I see this as a wolf trying to use up my duke role now before we really have any big leads and take a random shot(75% i hit a villager) instead of later on when we have better odds...i dont really like this plan or his play, so barring something else if i am lynched i will take hoops down
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12-31-2005, 12:35 PM | #708 | |
Coordinator
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Quote:
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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12-31-2005, 12:36 PM | #709 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Because you would rather die at night to the wolves? I don't get your logic here at all.
We have to vote to lynch you for you to use your power. It isn't like you get to call your shot one time on who to kill on any given day. So the idea of saving it for later doesn't necessarily hold up. I hope you are just positioning here rather than really intending to take me down if voted in. I respect the idea that you want to keep people guessing on where you will go and that you don't have an absolute reason to trust my list as your guiding principle. But killing me would be a bad, bad play. That moves the 43% play into a 0% play. |
12-31-2005, 12:41 PM | #710 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Tennessee
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Wow a lot of reading since I left yesterday. I caught up late last night and finished this morning.
Bear with me, but what is a "Duke" role? Does that mean if you are lynched, you can stay alive and pick someone else to get lynched? Is it that simple? Also, Hoopsguy, what are you basing your primary suspicion on for each person you trust and each person you suspect? I just don't see how you have determined "trust" as you have not really thrown any reasoning out behind. Sounds like a bunch of hot air. BTW, I am not a demon on day 3 and I am not an elemental on day 3. |
12-31-2005, 12:45 PM | #711 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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12-31-2005, 12:53 PM | #712 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Gram, I'll provide some insight into my list.
I have a secret role that is granting me absolute knowledge of the role of one player that is still unknown to the rest of the group. I would like to maintain the secrecy of this role because I think it is in the best interests of the remaining humans for me to do so. I would also prefer to avoid naming the player/role I have identified because it may influence the decisions of the demons on their attacks. I would like for them to believe that I'm holding knowledge of the 2nd elemental - it may or may not be that role. Having WVU and Blade on the trust list is based off of information that has been posted on this board. Dacman has been revealed as an elemental. So draw your own conclusions about my reasons for trusting Dubb and Cronin. And obviously I trust myself. |
12-31-2005, 12:57 PM | #713 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
I can change the outcome of any one lynch, 1 time a game...so if i didnt want dacman to be lynched yesterday i could have used my power and lynched any other person of my choice...i will likely be using this power today, and as of now hoopsguy is going to be the benefactor of this power
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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12-31-2005, 01:02 PM | #714 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Blade, if you can change the lynch without being the "lynchee" then that takes away any motivation to string you up to prove your role.
Unvote Blade I trust you, you don't trust me. OK, I'll do what I can to rectify this because even without a kill yet I think we are moving in the right direction to win this game. But not if you go and off me and we are down to 6-3 tomorrow with a pair of special human roles removed from the game. |
12-31-2005, 01:05 PM | #715 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Clearly everyone has a role in this game. In some games where everyone has a role, and I believe they are all unique roles in this case, it makes sense for everyone to reveal a role. With there being so many unique roles it would put pressure on the demons to come up with plausible unique roles. We would then vote people off based on duplicate or implausible roles. However, with us having so little of an idea of what the roles are perhaps the mass reveal is not the right strategy here. What do people think of this?
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12-31-2005, 01:05 PM | #716 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Man, I'm going to hate being up in the city tonight.
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12-31-2005, 01:08 PM | #717 |
General Manager
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Barkeep, I'll decline this option. If humans are honest about their roles then it gives the demons the option to pick the role they want to eliminate. If humans are dishonest about their roles, they run the risk of being targeted for an implausible sounding fake reveal.
I'll take my chances giving out partial information, particularly when the person asking for the reveal is pretty high on my own personal demon list at the moment. |
12-31-2005, 01:10 PM | #718 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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I will ask this, since im more of a threat then WVU is, can the bodyguard look after me tonight or tomorrow night...i wont say which to throw off the wolves, but my power could be very useful later in the game.
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
12-31-2005, 01:11 PM | #719 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
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Dacman, can you give us any insight or no?
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
12-31-2005, 01:19 PM | #720 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: speak to the trout
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Quote:
What insight do you desire?
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12-31-2005, 01:30 PM | #721 |
General Manager
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Location: Chicago
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Dacman, do you have an interest in whether the humans or demons win?
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12-31-2005, 01:30 PM | #722 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Dac I think really any insight you can offer into the motivations of elementals is what we really care about.
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12-31-2005, 01:35 PM | #723 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Dacman, you're my boy blue! Help out the humans!
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12-31-2005, 01:42 PM | #724 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: speak to the trout
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The elementals cannot be understood by mere mortals, even those who been given over to demonic power.
The elementals do not care for the human or the demon side, but can have their hand forced if one side garners enough favor(tm). Once an elemental, always an elemental. The elementals were not involved in last night's deaths in any way.
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12-31-2005, 01:44 PM | #725 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Do you know who the druid/warlock players are? Are you interested in both of them surviving since they make sacrifices to you?
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12-31-2005, 02:08 PM | #726 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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VOTE SNDVLS
Hes normally very talkative but i havent heared much from him...when it was it was quite meaningless...(hoops would still be my duke kill though)
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
12-31-2005, 02:32 PM | #727 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Earlier I gave my trusts, here are the guys that I'm most suspicious of at this point. Note that my trust list was based predominantly on what I know, while this list is based on bad vibes, instinct, whatever.
1. Barkeep 2. SnDvls 3. Passacaglia 4. Gram 5. Path 6. Ardent 7. Taz Barkeep and SnDvls are the highest tier of discomfort. I've played a couple of games with both of these guys and neither one has left me with a good feeling so far. Ardent and Taz are less so than remaining five, but I have no real feel for their roles at this point in time. Take from these lists what you will - they are intended to generate conversation and to give you a clear path to follow if I happen to meet an untimely demise. |
12-31-2005, 02:54 PM | #728 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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My list of suspects, based on my impressions.
Most suspicious: Barkeep, hoopsguy (both requesting role reveals) Somewhat suspicious: st. cronin, Grammaticus, dubb A little suspicious: AE, SnDvls, path, Taz Worrisome: Blade, Dacman (what are those elementals up to?) Clean: WVUFAN |
12-31-2005, 03:05 PM | #729 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Off to New Years stuff - will pick this up tomorrow afternoon.
Hope everyone has a happy, and safe, evening of fun. Good luck with the party, Coffee. |
12-31-2005, 03:42 PM | #730 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Off to party like it's 2006.
I'll cast a vote now. Vote Barkeep. I often find it weird when people such as Mr. Wednesday, hoopsguy, blade6119, or barkeep remain in the game too long. The few times (and I think it's been...3) I've been a bad guy, I've always wanted to silence those I feel provide the most information. Good information is bad for bad guys, so I always wanted to silence them. For whatever reason, hoops, blade, and barkeep all remain. I assume blade is good. I'm assuming at the moment hoops is good. Either the bad guys aren't doing their job or I'd guess hoops or barkeep are bad.
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12-31-2005, 03:46 PM | #731 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Not doing their job? The bad guys have spent both of their night attacks getting saldana. Considering he was going to be a known good guy after their futile first attempt, I would say it was a good kill last night. I am a good guy and have a role which I have attempted to use to the villager's benefit once, but was prevented from doing so by out of game considerations. I hope to remain alive to use my role, which I can assure you will be a substantial advantage to the villagers.
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12-31-2005, 05:37 PM | #732 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Quote:
Do not vote SnDvls. I am 99% sure SnDvls is human. |
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12-31-2005, 05:39 PM | #733 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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dola
I don't remotely understand why the demons didn't kill Blade last night. If I had been a demon, that would have been my first play, because that would have allowed the humans to lynch saldana with a clear conscience - then the following night, kill WVUfan. Blade's play was weird, to say the least, and somewhat suspicious. |
12-31-2005, 06:18 PM | #734 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
sorry was out last night for a party w/ my wife and her friends. I still don't like you asking for a role reveal just like before. In self preservation VOTE Blade 6119 happy new year all as I won't be on much tonight. |
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12-31-2005, 06:58 PM | #735 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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Bastards. This is the 2nd game in a row I got killed on night 2
Go Humans.
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12-31-2005, 07:41 PM | #736 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
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Quote:
Whats more dangerous to the wolves winning? The duke or a seer/bodyguard/druid? Exactly why i didnt die last night(not sure why the hit saldana, i think that was stupid as even if they want known roles you hit WVU). You can feel free to vote for me or not, as i expect to die at the end of this day cycle(night kill) i am 95% sure i will change the vote....Hoops has some company on my list now in barkeep, sundvls, and st. cronin....im still pondering who gets to ride of the roller coaster of death at the end of the day today, but barring me being conviced the bodyguard has my back tonight i will kill today.
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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12-31-2005, 08:14 PM | #737 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Tennessee
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Regarding elementals
I’ve been thinking about the letter found in Smitty’s belongings. The one regarding Thor. This must be a clue of some kind and I’m thinking it has to do with elementals. Not sure exactly what but it talks about breaking the bones of the goats that come back each morning, then the one who broke the leg, having to serve Thor to compensate for the damage. This may mean that if you attempt to kill an elemental, you may have to serve it? Also, on victory conditions, I’m thinking that elementals probably do not have an exclusivity requirement. Meaning that one of three groups wins the game, either the Humans, Demons or Elementals. But that the elementals can win along with one of the other groups. It seems like it would be too powerful for the elementals to have a goal of exclusive victory without telling the other groups of the victory conditions. But the game layout says they do have victory conditions and indicates it as secret. It could be possible that (if there are 2 elementals) then one wins if the Humans win and one wins if the Demons win. Anybody else have any thoughts on the Thor note or elemental victory conditions? |
12-31-2005, 08:33 PM | #738 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
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I agree that the elementals victory condition is non-exclusive of the Humans or Demons. That said I think it's something completely different than what Gram is suggesting. What I don't know, but I think it has something, perhaps, to do with favor.
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01-01-2006, 12:36 AM | #739 | |
Pro Rookie
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Quote:
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01-01-2006, 01:03 AM | #740 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
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Quote:
On the other hand the kick in the nuts to me is just CW humor. Saldana referenced it as part of his explanation of his blessed role and I think CW was just continuing the joke, much as he does with yaks. |
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01-01-2006, 01:23 AM | #741 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
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Sorry for the lack of involvement guys, but I just got home from a week of vacation. As I said in my last post, I thought I'd have internet access at the in-laws. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case. It was a boring, mind-numbing week in a tiny town (like 200 people) about 30 miles west of Redding, CA.
Anyway, I hope it's been fun for you guys and that I didn't mess things up too badly for you all. I can't wait to play in the next WW. I've been thinking about running my own game soon, but we'll see.
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01-01-2006, 09:46 AM | #742 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Man, I am tired.
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01-01-2006, 12:07 PM | #743 | |
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Location: Chicago
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From Post #732, by St. Cronin
Quote:
Cronin, can you explain why you believe this to be the case? Because while I'm putting you in the "trust" list I don't have SnDvls in there at the moment. |
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01-01-2006, 12:14 PM | #744 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Blade, as you are sorting through your decisions "lynch override", here are my thoughts on the people you have in your short list.
1. Me - please do not kill me. I have no power that will prevent a lynch at your hand. My death would be bad for the village, but when I was revealed as human you would at least have a ton of information from me to work with going forward. 2. Cronin - do not kill him. 3/4 Barkeep and SnDvls - I have a sneaking suspicion that one of these two is a demon and the other is the druid. But no hard and fast reasons for the druid thought, just my theory of the moment. I've been trying to figure out who is the druid for awhile now as I believe it to be a critical role for the humans to protect. |
01-01-2006, 12:30 PM | #745 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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VOTE GRAMMATICUS
I am not prepared to reveal all I know yet. Just trust me. |
01-01-2006, 12:39 PM | #746 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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That's asking a whole lot.
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01-01-2006, 12:42 PM | #747 | |
General Manager
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Quote:
I know. If we lynch SnDvls instead of Grammaticus, I am 99% sure that it's game over, demons win. There is somebody who can back me up, but I'm not sure who that is yet. |
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01-01-2006, 12:48 PM | #748 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Now in a worse case scenario there are 4 demons. With 12 players left how is it that we would lose the game after this lynch? A demon win would require us getting down to 8 players. That doesn't seem likely to happen after today.
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01-01-2006, 12:52 PM | #749 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Last night 2 humans were killed. Are you sure that won't happen again tonight?
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01-01-2006, 12:56 PM | #750 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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No of course I'm not sure. But even if 2 humans are killed tonight, and 1 lynched today, then we still have one more chance to get the lynch right. Please don't get me wrong, I have no love for Grammaticus. He could easily be a demon. You're just asking me to take a lot on faith consideirng you were nearly executed yesterday.
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