11-06-2020, 12:09 PM | #7401 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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Quote:
That's not the network's standard for calling a state in any other instance. I don't know if it's a good or bad idea or all the reasons behind it, or how much it matters, but they're absolutely not just going by their ordinary projection book here. |
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11-06-2020, 12:13 PM | #7402 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Come on, they would've called these states in the past. In that infamous 2012 Karl Rove meltdown, he was making that very same argument: complaining because there were more votes outstanding in Ohio than the margin at the time. The Fox News Decision Desk guy stood by his call because most of the votes remaining were from Cleveland.
That's the same exact scenario we have here. If you think they should be more cautious this time around, then fine, but they are clearly applying a different standard than they have in the past.
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11-06-2020, 12:14 PM | #7403 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Quote:
I see two reasons for extreme caution: (1) The President is making this a very contentious election, so you have to be double/triple/quadruple sure. (2) Because of the unprecedented voting patterns created by the pandemic, you can't be as sure as normal about what different groups of voters will say. |
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11-06-2020, 12:19 PM | #7404 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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I'm not sure how "contentiousness" should impact projection models. Why should indications that someone is going to be a poor loser impact news coverage? (Except for maybe immediate security concerns around the network buildings). If someone's going to be gracious in defeat the networks should be more aggressive calling states?
Edit: It also seems like the "contentiousness variable" for calling elections would encourage contentiousness as Trump supporters can see how they're successfully intimidating the networks. The second one makes some more sense to me after all of the roving estimates about how many votes were left, etc. If I had to guess, if someone called this at 6AM this morning, they all would have by now. Nobody wants to be first. I wonder if there's discussions to that end behind the scenes. Last edited by molson : 11-06-2020 at 12:36 PM. |
11-06-2020, 12:27 PM | #7405 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Quote:
If we were getting a new county that had no counts at all, that would make sense. But the votes outstanding are from places that have already seen some counts, so we can already see the voting patterns.
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11-06-2020, 12:31 PM | #7406 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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PA Biden has a 13k+ lead with maybe 100k or so left to count, mostly from Dem leaning areas.
NV, Biden has a 20k+ lead with maybe 100k or so left to count, almost all from Vegas. Call it
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11-06-2020, 12:34 PM | #7407 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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I agree at this point. It was painfully close, but we know who the winner is now. It's time to call it.
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11-06-2020, 12:35 PM | #7408 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Somebody wrote a statement for Trump to release about election integrity.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-06-2020, 12:37 PM | #7409 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Dec 2002
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The only valid reason I can see for not calling PA are the 92K provisional ballots. I think I've seen where they are expected to be pro-Bidden based on the precinct info but I can't remember where I saw that at this point.
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11-06-2020, 12:44 PM | #7410 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
I would love to read this statement
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11-06-2020, 12:46 PM | #7411 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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113k ballots left in PA, over half in Philly or Allegheny (Pittsburgh) counties.
I doubted for a little while that the count would turn, but now I just want to see those numbers keep going up. 50k seems like a reasonable figure.
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My listening habits |
11-06-2020, 12:52 PM | #7412 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-06-2020, 12:55 PM | #7413 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-06-2020, 12:55 PM | #7414 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
So you think they are protecting Trump? You think CNN or NBC cares about Trump's feelings? Is that your theory? Or are they just making sure they dot their i's and cross their t's?
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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11-06-2020, 12:56 PM | #7415 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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I think there's some degree of inevitability, time is on Biden's side, and there's no reason to feed the perception this was a con perpetrated by the Dems/Lamestream Media, so why rush it?
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-06-2020, 12:57 PM | #7416 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
My theory is no one wants to be the first one to call it, period. They're afraid to call it. For whatever reason. Though I do like KSyrup's Simpsons meme above... waiting on Fox News to call it. LOL
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My listening habits |
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11-06-2020, 12:57 PM | #7417 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
Back in 2012, or previous elections, there has always been this urgency to call SOMETHING on election night (that's what got a lot of networks in trouble in 2000). That doesn't apply here
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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11-06-2020, 12:58 PM | #7418 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
I don't think CNN or NBC cares about that. I think, esp NBC, would love to call it for Biden as soon as they are confident in it. MSNBC would gloat in it.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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11-06-2020, 01:02 PM | #7419 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Damn, John King almost said what I typed above word for word. Inevitability, why rush it.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-06-2020, 01:05 PM | #7420 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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CNN just explained it. They want to make sure there is no mathematical chance Trump can come back - and that needs them to know where the votes are outstanding. And when they get to the confidence they need to make the call, they'll make it.
What Ksyrup said as well.
__________________
"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
11-06-2020, 01:09 PM | #7421 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
In normal times, I would agree to call it now. But for these hotly contested states, I'd wait. Perception does count. For GA, my understanding is GA is pretty much done. However, today is last day for the military ballots. There are approx 8,000+ outstanding (not saying all of them will be received). I'd wait till the cut-off, see if there are enough receive that could change the result (probably not). I actually thought NV was closer. If NV still has 100,000+ outstanding, I'd wait. When it gets to the point where even if all 100% of outstanding goes for Trump but won't change the results, that's when to call it. |
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11-06-2020, 01:10 PM | #7422 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Speaking of GA military ballots... apparently they suddenly matter regardless of when they come in!
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-06-2020, 01:11 PM | #7423 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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"Missing." Trump doesn't even understand that these are waiting to be filed by today, not filed and not counted yet. What a moran.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-06-2020, 01:15 PM | #7424 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
Again, this has never been the standard. Holding to this standard now is unnecessarily cautious. But I feel like we've exhausted the arguments at this point, and whatever happens, happens.
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My listening habits |
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11-06-2020, 01:17 PM | #7425 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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I mean this morning Pennsylvania at one point when from +9000 to +8700 based on a drop and now the vote releases have slowed to a trickle in PA. Nevada ain't counting much fast at all. Arizona's new votes are going for Trump but maybe slightly less than he needs. Georgia has potentially 9,000 votes coming in today (likely not, but it can happen).
I will also note that NO ONE has called North Carolina yet.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams Last edited by ISiddiqui : 11-06-2020 at 01:18 PM. |
11-06-2020, 01:19 PM | #7426 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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NC is weird. Been at 95% since Tuesday night. This being 2020, I half-expect them to just drop all the rest of the votes and they show Biden winning.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-06-2020, 01:21 PM | #7427 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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From the 538 blog:
Where we’re expecting more data tonight: Pennsylvania: Biden has overtaken Trump in the state and now leads by 13,371 votes — and most of the remaining 100,000+ ballots should be very good for Democrats, given that they are either mail-in or provisional votes. Of particular note, a cache of about 29,000 mail-in ballots in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) that a court had ordered to be segregated and double-checked will be counted starting at 5 p.m. Eastern. Nevada: After some updates this morning, Biden expanded his lead here to 20,137 votes. Although about 150,000 late-arriving mail ballots or provisional ballots have yet to be counted, these ballots are expected to lean Democratic. Clark County (home of Las Vegas), where most percent of the outstanding ballots are, will release its next update at 7 p.m. Eastern and should have the bulk of the counting done this weekend. Arizona: Biden currently leads here by 43,779 votes, but there are somewhere around 220,000 left to count. Trump needs to win about 60 percent of those (or more) to pull into the lead, but he’s been falling short of that so far. We expect to get more results from Maricopa County (where most of the outstanding ballots are) at 9 p.m. Eastern. It’s unclear whether that will be enough to cause the networks to project the state. (Some outlets, such as Fox News, have already projected Arizona for Biden, but most media outlets have not, including our colleagues at ABC News.) Georgia: Biden currently leads here by a razor-thin margin (1,561 votes) with about 8,200 regular absentee ballots, up to 8,900 overseas ballots and at least 5,500 provisional ballots left to count (plus 2,000 rejected absentee ballots that could be “cured” by their voters). The secretary of state has already said that the race will go to a recount. No updates until next week: North Carolina: North Carolina has counted every ballot it had in its possession as of Tuesday, and Trump leads by 76,737 votes among them. However, the state has announced that about 117,000 mail-in ballots and 40,766 provisional ballots are potentially outstanding, although not all of them will count. Mail-in ballots have until Nov. 12 to arrive, and only at that point will more results be released.
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Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal Last edited by kingfc22 : 11-06-2020 at 01:24 PM. |
11-06-2020, 01:27 PM | #7428 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: The Satellite of Love
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Since this morning, in PA since the last time I updated my spreadsheet, 24k more votes have come in and we are down to 97k votes left to count. These votes have split 65/35 for Biden, and looking at ABC's map, I see a sea of red counties at 95% reporting. I see only 2 red counties left that are below that (one at 89% and 1 one at 94%). So I think these were a good chunk of votes left from the rural areas.
Last edited by sabotai : 11-06-2020 at 01:28 PM. |
11-06-2020, 01:33 PM | #7429 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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So Kornacki on MSNBC said that there are also 100,000 provisional ballots in PA and, while in a normal year they’d be Democrat-friendly, this year they’re favoring Trump (for example people who requested an absentee ballot but decided to vote in person because the president told them the mail was bad).
So they have to see how the provisionals are breaking first before they call it.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams Last edited by ISiddiqui : 11-06-2020 at 01:33 PM. |
11-06-2020, 01:34 PM | #7430 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Agree with Edward64 that perception counts, but I think it's as bad to wait too long as it is to call it too soon. Any call now disenfranchises nobody - there are no votes still being cast.
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11-06-2020, 01:36 PM | #7431 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Oh good, I can now go back to voting Republican!
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-06-2020, 01:36 PM | #7432 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: The Satellite of Love
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And going back to my post about Biden underperforming vs Hillary in Philadelphia, he's currently at 553,953 in Philly with 23,288 (according to the dashboard) mail in ballots left to count. If he got literally every vote from that batch, he'll be at 577,241. Clinton got 584,025.
So, unless there's more ballots left than the dashboard is currently reporting, Biden with have gotten ~7,000 fewer votes in Philadelphia than Clinton got in 2016. For comparison, Trump got 108,748 in 2016 and currently has 125,513, an increase of about 17k. |
11-06-2020, 01:39 PM | #7433 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
It seems like that may track with what's gone on in the rest of the country. Biden has gained lot with whites, but Trump has gained a bit with blacks and latino/as
__________________
"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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11-06-2020, 01:41 PM | #7434 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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There was a time when Lindsey Graham was a useful public servant. That ship has unfortunately long since sailed.
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11-06-2020, 01:54 PM | #7435 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: The Satellite of Love
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Quote:
It's funny that Trump and his supporters are freaking out over Philly, saying you can't trust the city and the vote is being rigged, when it's literally the only county in PA where he performed better than in 2016. I guess the Dems that rigged the election just forgot about Philadelphia the way Danny forgot about the Iron Fleet. |
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11-06-2020, 01:56 PM | #7436 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Quote:
Just watched a clip analyzing this and there are also 100K provisional ballots - likely people who request absentee and then decided to vote in-person. It's likely these will favor Trump. So even if Biden gets a good chunk of the remaining regular absentee ballots, his lead may get cut down by the provisionals.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 11-06-2020 at 01:57 PM. |
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11-06-2020, 01:58 PM | #7437 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
My wife never understood when I used to mention him as a potential dealmaker and reasonable Senator. But he sold his soul to Trumpism and is just a hollow shell of his former self. He was always one of the token GOPs that would vote against things when they had a couple of Senators of wiggle room and that was all a mirage. But he could also be part of bipartisan working groups, too, and come up with reasonable compromises. SI
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11-06-2020, 01:59 PM | #7438 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Missed this, but it is important that they are already on record.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-06-2020, 02:00 PM | #7439 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
We also forgot about Kentucky somehow. And North Carolina.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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11-06-2020, 02:04 PM | #7440 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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And the Senate. And all those state houses that would have been useful for redistricting. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
11-06-2020, 02:08 PM | #7441 |
hates iowa
Join Date: Oct 2010
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11-06-2020, 02:13 PM | #7442 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2013
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Quote:
When was that?
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"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
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11-06-2020, 02:22 PM | #7443 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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You should know better than to expect the impossible, Dan.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-06-2020, 02:24 PM | #7444 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Crenshaw is probably happy. He's not the biggest idiot in Congress anymore.
Also, I'm totally hear for the GOP firing circle.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
11-06-2020, 02:29 PM | #7445 |
assmaster
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Bloomington, IN
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We're living the horror movie not-dead-yet monster trope.
It's like we know that as soon as we turn our backs, the villain is going to rise up behind us and have to be killed again. Say what you will about Trump, but it's pretty impressive that the guy has managed to give an entire nation collective PTSD to the extent that we're afraid NOT to stand over the body until we're 100% sure it's dead. |
11-06-2020, 02:34 PM | #7446 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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There's a small, but angry protest now forming demanding a recount in... Rhode Island?
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11-06-2020, 02:37 PM | #7447 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
PLEASE! ALL CRAZIES GO TO RHODE ISLAND AND PROTEST! FIGHT FOR THOSE FOUR (unwinnable) ELECTORAL VOTES! SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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11-06-2020, 02:37 PM | #7448 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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LOL at McConnell. He can't even get himself to verbally say he rejects Trump's premise of fraud, etc but instead says "read my tweet".
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11-06-2020, 02:43 PM | #7449 | ||
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Quote:
Quote:
Note the "GONNA BE A CIVIL WAR" shouted by a man in the background at 15s.
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
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11-06-2020, 02:44 PM | #7450 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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Evacautions ongoing in Philly near where they are counting ballots due to bomb threats
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