2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[miami_fan]

Yes, this could on until Christmas.

[Ben E Lou]

Not that it looks like it's going to matter, but if the 95% number on NYT for NC is accurate and the numbers I just ran are correct, Biden needs about 64% of the outstanding (presumably main-in) ballots. Given how those things have gone elsewhere, that doesn't seem like it's out of reach.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/06/media...lan/index.html

Jesse Waters, Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson are anchors?

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

That's good to know. Explains why some of the state polls (e.g. Wisconsin and Florida) were off by multiple standard deviations outside of the margin of error. The ABC/Washington Post poll having Biden up by 17 in Wisconsin makes a lot more sense now.

That poll and others were obviously way wrong on dozens of things. I’m looking more at county by county type data where Biden may have increased his vote by 0-10% and Trump increased by up to 100%.

It is either rampant cheating or GOTV or we believe that nearly 100% of new voters in diverse areas only registered to vote for Trump (whereas it is pretty freaking close everywhere else) in cases like this. I’m willing to give Trump team credit for going out and micro targeting and registering the right voters when Biden was doing it by email and advertising. If it is cheating, they almost deserve to keep it for having balls that big.


Here is a thread looking at a dozen or so counties like this:

Fascinating pattern Miami-Dade & many Texas counties '16 to'20:
Turnout substantially increases
Trump raw vote substantially increases
Biden matches Clinton's raw votes
- Close to 100% of "new" voters seemingly vote Trump..for example Miami-Dade 1/5

— David Manel (@DavidManel) November 4, 2020

[Ben E Lou]

The Biden campaign on the possibility of Trump not conceding: “the United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House.”

— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) November 6, 2020

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Not that it looks like it's going to matter, but if the 95% number on NYT for NC is accurate and the numbers I just ran are correct, Biden needs about 64% of the outstanding (presumably main-in) ballots. Given how those things have gone elsewhere, that doesn't seem like it's out of reach.

I also noticed that the senate race hasn't been called yet for NC. Any decent chance that the Dems could win that one?

[cartman]

I think it and the NC pres race are joined at the hip

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I also noticed that the senate race hasn't been called yet for NC. Any decent chance that the Dems could win that one?

It's not quite as close. Cunningham needs 68%ish.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

That poll and others were obviously way wrong on dozens of things. I’m looking more at county by county type data where Biden may have increased his vote by 0-10% and Trump increased by up to 100%.

It is either rampant cheating or GOTV or we believe that nearly 100% of new voters in diverse areas only registered to vote for Trump (whereas it is pretty freaking close everywhere else) in cases like this. I’m willing to give Trump team credit for going out and micro targeting and registering the right voters when Biden was doing it by email and advertising. If it is cheating, they almost deserve to keep it for having balls that big.


Here is a thread looking at a dozen or so counties like this:

Fascinating pattern Miami-Dade & many Texas counties '16 to'20:
Turnout substantially increases
Trump raw vote substantially increases
Biden matches Clinton's raw votes
- Close to 100% of "new" voters seemingly vote Trump..for example Miami-Dade 1/5

— David Manel (@DavidManel) November 4, 2020

On the other side, there's similar suspicion about the difference between Biden votes and Dem Senate votes in swing states. I don't know the twitter handle off-hand but consistent numbers (assuming they are accurate) showing Biden with 60-80K more votes in MI, WI, PA, etc. than the Dem Senate candidate got. I guess the theory is that one would think those votes would more closely match if the Rep Senate candidate's numbers about matched Trump.

[Ksyrup]

All of these theories presuppose registration identity means everything. Which we all know it doesn't.

[Butter]

PA SOS website says 123k still to count, about half in Allegheny and Philadelphia Counties. This margin could get over 50k

[Arles]

First, I'm pumped that it looks like Biden is going to win. But, I always like to look at each side in these situations for some perspective. If the situation was slightly different and we were essentially tied going into Florida (which was still a toss up). Would Biden supporters accept without lawsuit/complaint Trump winning Florida when he got nearly all those "new" Miami voters? That is basically how all these Trumpies feel about the mail-in in PA and GA going heavily Biden.

I wouldn't think either side cheated and just chalk it up to a great ground game for the GOP in Florida and an organized mail-in attempt by the democrats to get people to vote who may not have because of Covid fears. So, while I completely agree Trump has lost his rocker doing all these ridiculous court cases and they should all be smacked down - I'm willing to let some of these Trumpies vent for a bit about "stealing the election with new mail in votes". Both sides had so much invested in this election that whichever side lost was probably going to take a while to get over it.

[kingfc22]

The PA legal angle for Trump may not even matter even if they get traction with it. Those ballots that arrived in the post Election Day window have not even been counted.

https://twitter.com/jimrutenberg/sta...853388288?s=20

[NobodyHere]

I'm excited about Trump leaving but kind of indifferent to Biden coming in.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Arles

First, I'm pumped that it looks like Biden is going to win. But, I always like to look at each side in these situations for some perspective. If the situation was slightly different and we were essentially tied going into Florida (which was still a toss up). Would Biden supporters accept without lawsuit/complaint Trump winning Florida when he got nearly all those "new" Miami voters? That is basically how all these Trumpies feel about the mail-in in PA and GA going heavily Biden.

I wouldn't think either side cheated and just chalk it up to a great ground game for the GOP in Florida and an organized mail-in attempt by the democrats to get people to vote who may not have because of Covid fears. So, while I completely agree Trump has lost his rocker doing all these ridiculous court cases and they should all be smacked down - I'm willing to let some of these Trumpies vent for a bit about "stealing the election with new mail in votes". Both sides had so much invested in this election that whichever side lost was probably going to take a while to get over it.

I'm fine with legal challenges. Bring proof. You sure wouldn't hear about the Democrats holding press conferences talking about "cheating" without proof.

The GOP has no more dignity left. And that's fine, it still wins elections. But let's not pretend that the parties are equivalent in any way whatsoever.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

The Biden campaign on the possibility of Trump not conceding: “the United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House.”
— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) November 6, 2020

I thought that was a good line

SI

[Ksyrup]

I tend to think that if we had unlimited resources, time and access, we'd be appalled at the amount of fraud/attempted fraud and just general shenanigans that would be uncovered. On both sides. Of every election, in any given year.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

On the other side, there's similar suspicion about the difference between Biden votes and Dem Senate votes in swing states. I don't know the twitter handle off-hand but consistent numbers (assuming they are accurate) showing Biden with 60-80K more votes in MI, WI, PA, etc. than the Dem Senate candidate got. I guess the theory is that one would think those votes would more closely match if the Rep Senate candidate's numbers about matched Trump.

Easy one: Right-leaning folks who voted for Biden and the R Senate candidate. #RVAT (I know several close friends who did this. One guy down in Georgia who voted Trump in 2016 wrote in Pence this time but of course went R down the line the rest of the way.) And also some folks only vote for President.)

[Drake]

Things that are encouraging to me today:

1. Outside of the usual nutbags (for whom politics are the least egregious form of their nutbaggery), my south-central Indiana Facebook feed is surprisingly quiet. They don't seem to be buying Trump's arguments about massive fraud and may be distancing themselves from his claims via silence.

2. My local Fox affiliate out of Indianapolis was exceptionally giddy after announcing that Biden had taken the lead in Pennsylvania.

My takeaways here are that local conservatives on the ground for the most part probably shouldn't be confused with social media conservatives and local Fox media shouldn't be confused with national Fox News personalities.

Indiana has been red for my whole life, but this response is more like the sort of conservatism that I grew up with than what I saw over the last four years, where the idiots and loudmouths drowned everyone else out.

In Indiana, at least, there might be a path for returning to normal by the next election cycle.

[lungs]

*wrong thread*

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Easy one: Right-leaning folks who voted for Biden and the R Senate candidate. #RVAT (I know several close friends who did this. One guy down in Georgia who voted Trump in 2016 wrote in Pence this time but of course went R down the line the rest of the way.) And also some folks only vote for President.)

But then you'd expect more votes for the R Senate then Trump got. That's not what they are seeing. Again, I don't have it in front of me but that's what the "data" showed. I think James got 10K less votes than Trump. Something along those lines.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Easy one: Right-leaning folks who voted for Biden and the R Senate candidate.

This is true in a number of states due to revulsion for Trump, even among a lot of Republicans. Those who think Georgia is now a "blue" state might be in for a rude awakening in January.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I tend to think that if we had unlimited resources, time and access, we'd be appalled at the amount of fraud/attempted fraud and just general shenanigans that would be uncovered. On both sides. Of every election, in any given year.

But very little of that fraud ends up with counted ballots. The more prevalent and effective means of fraud are getting people not to vote. Things like calls with the wrong date, phony mailers, running fake third-party candidates, etc. happen much more often than voter fraud. There's rarely a penalty for the former, but the latter can send you to jail for years.

[kingfc22]

Good AZ update for Biden. Trump was closing at a good pace before this most recent update.

[Butter]

Latest Maricopa update was 53/47 for Trump. He needs 58% of what's left to win AZ.

Then Biden just gained 210 votes from Santa Cruz Co. in AZ.

[Butter]

Biden over 9k in PA now.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Butter

Latest Maricopa update was 53/47 for Trump. He needs 58% of what's left to win AZ.

Then Biden just gained 210 votes from Santa Cruz Co. in AZ.

The math guys seem to believe that Maricopa update may have ended Trump's chances.

[Lathum]

Lead in Nevada just grew

[kingfc22]

It's over. PA, NV and AZ are going Biden.

[Butter]

Nevada update doubled Bidens lead. It should be called

[ISiddiqui]

Kelly winning the AZ Senate seat has been called.

[Lathum]

Christ, even the FOX News anchor is saying we have never seen a US President say what Trump said then questioning where the is the evidence of fraud? Trump is going to lose his mind.

[molson]

Whoever calls it first is probably going to have to make sure their building security precautions are sufficient first.

[Scoobz0202]

Will somebody just call the damn thing. It's over

[ISiddiqui]

It doesn't really matter if anyone calls it or not... it's not as if a media calling has any impact on anything .

As more votes come out they'll probably end up calling it... maybe later today, maybe this weekend.

[Butter]

100% it matters. It will help change the narrative.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by molson

Whoever calls it first is probably going to have to make sure their building security precautions are sufficient first.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Butter

100% it matters. It will help change the narrative.

.. for the weekend?

I mean it'll happen at some point in the next few days.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

Will somebody just call the damn thing. It's over

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

It doesn't really matter if anyone calls it or not... it's not as if a media calling has any impact on anything .

As more votes come out they'll probably end up calling it... maybe later today, maybe this weekend.

The media "calling" the race is kinda like betting lines in newspapers back in the day. Strictly entertainment. The race is determined by the ballot count (and eventually the Electoral College meeting). The media doesn't really have a say there.

[miami_fan]

I just took a quick run through the news channels. Full credit to all of them for the love, care and empathy they are showing the candidate who is currently losing the election in this tough time and allowing for him and his supporters to vent.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

The media "calling" the race is kinda like betting lines in newspapers back in the day. Strictly entertainment.

Nobody said that the media decides the election. But the winner is apparent now. Not reporting this just furthers the narrative that this hasn't been decided and gives Trump and his ilk more time to complain that something is being "stolen".

[ISiddiqui]

As if he wouldn't complain that the "media" called it well before the votes were counted?

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Butter

Nobody said that the media decides the election. But the winner is apparent now. Not reporting this just furthers the narrative that this hasn't been decided and gives Trump and his ilk more time to complain that something is being "stolen".

They're gonna complain about that anyway.

They'll blithely ignore that if the Democrats were "stealing" the Presidency, they'd probably ALSO have done enough to "steal" the Senate so that Biden would have a prayer in hell of DOING anything meaningful with the office.

And even if every media organization under the sun calls the race for Biden, half the country is going to believe that the media is in on the "heist" anyway.

To the half of the country who would take a media outlet calling the race seriously, they've got eyes to see what's going on anyway.

And the other half of the country would lambast the liberal MSM mainstream socialist media as trying to pull the wool over the eyes of decent, hardworking, Americans as part of a dark conspiracy to get rid of Trump (and only Trump).

[ISiddiqui]

I just realized that SNL could be really fun this week.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

They're gonna complain about that anyway.

They'll blithely ignore that if the Democrats were "stealing" the Presidency, they'd probably ALSO have done enough to "steal" the Senate so that Biden would have a prayer in hell of DOING anything meaningful with the office.

And even if every media organization under the sun calls the race for Biden, half the country is going to believe that the media is in on the "heist" anyway.

To the half of the country who would take a media outlet calling the race seriously, they've got eyes to see what's going on anyway.

And the other half of the country would lambast the liberal MSM mainstream socialist media as trying to pull the wool over the eyes of decent, hardworking, Americans as part of a dark conspiracy to get rid of Trump (and only Trump).

So they shouldn't call the race because the people that don't trust them will believe they were in on stealing the election, while the people who do trust the news already know it's over... I'm failing to see your logic here. The media's job is to report facts. This is a fact. End of story.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Butter

So they shouldn't call the race because the people that don't trust them will believe they were in on stealing the election, while the people who do trust the news already know it's over... I'm failing to see your logic here. The media's job is to report facts. This is a fact. End of story.

Yes, exactly. The media outlets are waiting until it meets their requirements to call states. You seem to the one who wants the media to cater to people's feelings on this.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Yes, exactly. The media outlets are waiting until it meets their requirements to call states. You seem to the one who wants the media to cater to people's feelings on this.

When literal pollsters in both NV and AZ are saying "it's over", we've met the threshold. He doesn't need PA or GA, but he's gonna get those too.

Nobody wants to be first here, it's like a game of chicken.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Butter

When literal pollsters in both NV and AZ are saying "it's over", we've met the threshold. He doesn't need PA or GA, but he's gonna get those too.

IIRC, CNN waited quite long to call Wisconsin and Michigan and are likely waiting for more votes to come in - as their are more votes outstanding in NV and AZ than the lead... and it's been a while since a vote came in.

It seems like you want to put your feelings on the way these outlets call races. Let them do their job.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

They're gonna complain about that anyway.

They'll blithely ignore that if the Democrats were "stealing" the Presidency, they'd probably ALSO have done enough to "steal" the Senate so that Biden would have a prayer in hell of DOING anything meaningful with the office.

And even if every media organization under the sun calls the race for Biden, half the country is going to believe that the media is in on the "heist" anyway.

To the half of the country who would take a media outlet calling the race seriously, they've got eyes to see what's going on anyway.

And the other half of the country would lambast the liberal MSM mainstream socialist media as trying to pull the wool over the eyes of decent, hardworking, Americans as part of a dark conspiracy to get rid of Trump (and only Trump).

But isn't it a very grey area whether letting president Trump lie live on tv is worse than censoring him?

Especially in the USA, where "us vs them" and "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" logic are part of the culture, it sends a message that those media have taken a side: anti-Trump thus pro-Biden.

It's the media their job to be critical, check the facts and inform their viewers, readers and listeners about those facts. It's not their job to nipplegate him, it's their job to show the nipple and call the nipple a nipple.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

IIRC, CNN waited quite long to call Wisconsin and Michigan and are likely waiting for more votes to come in - as their are more votes outstanding in NV and AZ than the lead... and it's been a while since a vote came in.

It seems like you want to put your feelings on the way these outlets call races. Let them do their job.

Is that what it seems like? Or does it seem like everybody agrees that Biden has won, it's just a matter of by how much at this point.

They don't have to wait until there are fewer votes remaining than the lead. If that were the case, they'd never call any states until hours after they've started counting.

This isn't hard.