Werewolf CXL - The Dark Knight Returns - GAME OVER

[MrBug708]

CF has some weird posts, but he's a good WW player and it doesn't make sense that he's so over the top. That being said, I don't understand his comments in this thread

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

But Crimson keeps cropping up on the Two-Face side of Chief's unvote patterns, so you're kind of contradicting yourself there.

I'm willing to bet that the whole unvote thing is a blind alley. I'm also doubtful about how hard we should be chasing Two-Face rather than potential convertees. Seems like we have a much better chance of getting a deranged citizen and when we do we can try to follow a trail back to Two-Face. Trying to shoot straight for Two-Face is less likely to work but more likely to give Two-Face an idea of who the converted people are.

Yeah, I guess to some degree I am, though just considering all pieces of evidence. The unvote thing may very well be a blind alley, especially since the corrupted citizens might want to play it safe since if two face is lynched they lose. Still, I don't think Crimson being in the voting is a bad thing at all as he could easily be a corrupted even if he's not two face.

[Narcizo]

When I was a sorceror recently I was very worried about voting for wolves. The deranged citizens are kind of like sorcerors. I think they'll be trying to settle in their minds who they think are villagers and then will chase them. Day one you have to pretty much hope for the best but after that you're going to be looking for superficially decent reasons for voting someone you don't think is a baddy. Makes me suspicious of people getting on the Crimson train today.

Then again, if he posts one more Coldplay video I'm nightfalling the bastard.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Danny

Still, I don't think Crimson being in the voting is a bad thing at all as he could easily be a corrupted even if he's not two face.

Wouldn't tell us a thing in terms of voting records if he is corruptible as no-one knows the fact. If he comes up bad then we can study his posts to see if we can find any signs (no matter how subtle) that he was attempting to signal Two-Face that he was corruptible.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by saldana

i didnt see anything strange about hoops from yesterday. i think it is much more likely that two face simply eliminated a dangerous villager

I'm thinking more in terms of people voting him. Normally I'd see people voting Hoops on day one as more suspicious than average but I'm not sure in these circumstances.

[CrimsonFox]

[Narcizo]

But if we want to pursue Chief's line of thinking Danny has a couple of throwaway vote/unvotes yesterday that really had no chance of going anywhere. (mau and Commo) I'm not really sure I understood on first reading what the point of those votes was. So I shall look back again.

[Narcizo]

No, still don't understand the point of them. Anything you'd like to share about those votes Danny?

[Danny]

Now you're the one contradicting yourself :P.

Those were two people who had votes already and were not Abe or Zinto who I felt were villagers. I was hoping to get a different candidate in there. I bounced around until one would hopefully stick.

[Danny]

Or there is really five different Two Face's and I was trying to signal them all.

[Lathum]

Vote CrimsonFox

seems to be forcing the issue with me given I have barely posted.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Already more evaluation than normal on day 2. normslly my day 2 vote is another cipher, but looking at the bits of evaluation... (esp. Chief's) it looks like Cf's name should be high in the thought processes of today. Thus...
Vote CrimsonFox

A cipher for you or a cipher for us?

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Danny

Now you're the one contradicting yourself :P.

Those were two people who had votes already and were not Abe or Zinto who I felt were villagers. I was hoping to get a different candidate in there. I bounced around until one would hopefully stick.

About to head into work, just a couple quick thoughts before I do.

Interesting you say this as I was the second on Zinto and never moved off. I did find your voting yesterday strange as well and was thinking of mentioning you today, but CrimsonFox just seems more out there.

As for trying to find two face, I agree that it will be hard, unless he was one of the candidates yesterday, which is what like a 15-20% chance we are better off going for any wolf lead, not just two face.

I do think voting records will help out the village in a few days however once we start connecting dots on who bad guys are, that is if both our forensic people are still alive.

[Danny]

We'll need more than one candidate for today, so I will get things started in that regard.

Vote Commo

[Danny]

Just going with gut feel on this one mostly.

[Chief Rum]

A runoff between CF and Commo, Danny? You trying to make sure this game doesn't come near Abe's post count in the last one?

[Danny]

I have to find some way to still lead in posts even after being night killed in the next few nights.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Danny

Hoops is an interesting kill. I have to imagine two face was going for someone they thought might be a corrupted citizen. This likely means that A. No one made it obvious they were a corrupted citizen an 2. I'd guess that two face wasn't even involved in the vote at all (meaning Zinto and Crimson are not two face.

i think it was more likely Two Face was hoping...with a lone wolf, it is like a draft pick situation unless someone does find a way to drop a hint...converting hoops would have been a great addition to the supervillan team, so he went for who he wanted the most...worst cast, he hits Rachel and cant kill her. it wont surprise me one bit to see the night kill list be a "wolf hall of fame"

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Danny

Or there is really five different Two Face's and I was trying to signal them all.

Or one of them is Two Face and you're trying to cover your tracks by getting enough votes out there

I'm up for going with Commo though. Don't really like this to become a Commo-Crimson run-off - but I am suspicious of people taking the easy route of voting Crimson, whether he's a convertee or not.

Vote Commo

[Narcizo]

I'm going to (vaguely) go along with the vague consensus that Saldana seems on the level.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Or one of them is Two Face and you're trying to cover your tracks by getting enough votes out there

Vote Commo

Could be, but I am pretty sure if I was a corrupted I would just sit back knowing I would be a likely early kill target anyway.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Danny

Could be, but I am pretty sure if I was a corrupted I would just sit back knowing I would be a likely early kill target anyway.

Yeah, that was actually what I decided you'd probably do.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

A cipher for you or a cipher for us?

for me! for you! for us together!

It is just day two voting seems almost as random as day one in general. This game we have a plan. Look at the unvotes. might it bear results? I don't know. But putting someone who comes up for several of those seems like a good candidate to be in todays microscope. We do need another though. A runaway vote would not be good.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by saldana

if you are gonna count posts, can we exclude all abe's about his ipod and soda?

im sure he still has more than me, but i would like to last more than 1 day this game.

++++++1

finally got caught up....day one seemed to be a useless day with 8+ pages of nothing.

Based on that and reading the useful posts. I'm voting on who I would have voted day one based on that vibe I got.

Vote Zinito

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I'm going to (vaguely) go along with the vague consensus that Saldana seems on the level.

I don't really have the time to go through all the nonsense posts from yesterday. Did Saldana reveal or something?

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Or one of them is Two Face and you're trying to cover your tracks by getting enough votes out there

I'm up for going with Commo though. Don't really like this to become a Commo-Crimson run-off - but I am suspicious of people taking the easy route of voting Crimson, whether he's a convertee or not.

Vote Commo

funny way of showing you don't want it to be a commo cf runoff. I think I listed valid reasons for voting cf and was the first on him, other then himself, so not like it was an easy road.

As for danny, not surprised by that vote as I came out and said I was suspicious of him. I'm just curious what gives the gut feeling I'm a wolf? Was it stating I thought it was not a good move for bgs to reveal, when there really is not a good reason to, or thinking hoops was good and saying I'm not sure why others were voting him?

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Danny

Could be, but I am pretty sure if I was a corrupted I would just sit back knowing I would be a likely early kill target anyway.

Any reason you removed the middle part of his post about not liking a cf commo runoff?

[Narcizo]

I'm still not seeing the beef with Zinto (or Zinito). From what I can see his posts have been very much in-line with his usual play as a villager. I think the game is hard because it's tough for villagers to drop the usual attitude to voting, night kills and the like.

1. I think Two-Face has got to be primarily interested in targeting corruptibles. But if he doesn't have any solid leads on that score he'll probably look to kill/convert strong players. But if I was him I'd be way more focused on finding the nutter. This is probably the only game where I'm relieved to see a night kill has gone through because it means the situation isn't at risk of getting out of control.

2. Voting - at the moment it's going to tell you even less than usual. I tend to think that a nutter settles on one candidate and sticks on that candidate at the moment. There's a very slim chance that we're going to see a move to save anyone at this stage of the game - you're probably most likely to see a lot of second-guessing going on by villagers. I don't think you can read too much into voting movement as you might do in a normal game.

3. Signals to Two-Face. I think the nutters will be very wary of signalling Two-Face too overtly. Nobody wants to be the guy to make a slip up that costs their side the game without being able to discuss it with anyone. I think the nutter play a conservative game, try to keep off the people they think are wolves and only put their heads above the ramparts if Two-Face is at risk. Of course by "playing it conservative" that means trying to play their usual game.

4. I encourage villagers to try and post more, make Two-Face really have to work trying to find his allies.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I don't really have the time to go through all the nonsense posts from yesterday. Did Saldana reveal or something?

Not that I've noticed.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Any reason you removed the middle part of his post about not liking a cf commo runoff?

I an trying to hide that part or I just accidentally didn't delete his vote, my reply was clearly directed qt the first part of bid post

[Zinto]

Today is looking like a crap shoot. I am not sure at all about Crimson. Sure he is being his usual self but he is so over the top that I think Two Face would never take him being a deranged citizen seriously.

[Zinto]

Also there is a good chance he knew he was going to gather some votes for being his usual Crimson self so I think he might of dialed it back a little bit.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I'm still not seeing the beef with Zinto (or Zinito). From what I can see his posts have been very much in-line with his usual play as a villager. I think the game is hard because it's tough for villagers to drop the usual attitude to voting, night kills and the like.

1. I think Two-Face has got to be primarily interested in targeting corruptibles. But if he doesn't have any solid leads on that score he'll probably look to kill/convert strong players. But if I was him I'd be way more focused on finding the nutter. This is probably the only game where I'm relieved to see a night kill has gone through because it means the situation isn't at risk of getting out of control.

2. Voting - at the moment it's going to tell you even less than usual. I tend to think that a nutter settles on one candidate and sticks on that candidate at the moment. There's a very slim chance that we're going to see a move to save anyone at this stage of the game - you're probably most likely to see a lot of second-guessing going on by villagers. I don't think you can read too much into voting movement as you might do in a normal game.

3. Signals to Two-Face. I think the nutters will be very wary of signalling Two-Face too overtly. Nobody wants to be the guy to make a slip up that costs their side the game without being able to discuss it with anyone. I think the nutter play a conservative game, try to keep off the people they think are wolves and only put their heads above the ramparts if Two-Face is at risk. Of course by "playing it conservative" that means trying to play their usual game.

4. I encourage villagers to try and post more, make Two-Face really have to work trying to find his allies.

good post

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Danny

I an trying to hide that part or I just accidentally didn't delete his vote, my reply was clearly directed qt the first part of bid post

It was, just checking to see why you left the vote in.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I'm still not seeing the beef with Zinto (or Zinito). From what I can see his posts have been very much in-line with his usual play as a villager. I think the game is hard because it's tough for villagers to drop the usual attitude to voting, night kills and the like.

1. I think Two-Face has got to be primarily interested in targeting corruptibles. But if he doesn't have any solid leads on that score he'll probably look to kill/convert strong players. But if I was him I'd be way more focused on finding the nutter. This is probably the only game where I'm relieved to see a night kill has gone through because it means the situation isn't at risk of getting out of control.

2. Voting - at the moment it's going to tell you even less than usual. I tend to think that a nutter settles on one candidate and sticks on that candidate at the moment. There's a very slim chance that we're going to see a move to save anyone at this stage of the game - you're probably most likely to see a lot of second-guessing going on by villagers. I don't think you can read too much into voting movement as you might do in a normal game.

3. Signals to Two-Face. I think the nutters will be very wary of signalling Two-Face too overtly. Nobody wants to be the guy to make a slip up that costs their side the game without being able to discuss it with anyone. I think the nutter play a conservative game, try to keep off the people they think are wolves and only put their heads above the ramparts if Two-Face is at risk. Of course by "playing it conservative" that means trying to play their usual game.

4. I encourage villagers to try and post more, make Two-Face really have to work trying to find his allies.

1. At least he "kills" one corruptible, then I wonder if he shifts to Arkham hunting. It could have been a bit better if we had seen one vanilla villager intead of 2 roled ones.

2. & 3. So you are taking the Anti Chief position. changing is more likely to to be villagers. At least y'all hit everyone there!

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

It was, just checking to see why you left the vote in.

Ah ok, yeah, didn't do that on purpose.

[Autumn]

Another day in Gotham City, and protestors outside of the Gotham Police Department increase. Citizens are demanding an end to the string of murders that has rocked the city, from mobsters, to police officers, and now last night a university student. Reports have surfaced that the student was shot point blank in his own home, and that there was no robbery or apparent motive for the murder.

"What we're dealing with here," says one local psychiatrist, "Is a very disturbed individual. These acts have been merciless, sadistic even. There is no doubt that if not captured, this individual will continue killing. It is likely that he or she enjoys the attention that comes with his crimes, perhaps as much as the acts of violence themselves."

Police continue to insist that they are close in making an arrest in the case. After last night's courthouse debacle they have to be feeling the pressure to not only make an arrest, but the right one. If they're not, they only need to open their windows and hear the voices of the crowd outside.

4 CrimsonFox - crimsonfox, commo_soldier, ntndeacon, lathum
2 Commo_soldier - danny, Narcizo
1 Zinto - sndvls

[Abe Sargent]

Just Listened to: Genesis, Land of Confusion

Now Listening to: Tricky, Ed Kowalczyk, Hawkman "Evolution, Revolution, Love"

Next in the Queue: The Echoing Green, Crybaby

[mckerney]

Vote Commo

No strong feelings on Commo, but I don't like CF as a candidate. I'd be surprised if Two Face was in a three way tie yesterday. Was hoping we could find something on the candidate who fell out of the running at the four way tie, but Two Face cleared hoops for us.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Danny

good post

you post count padder

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Today is looking like a crap shoot. I am not sure at all about Crimson. Sure he is being his usual self but he is so over the top that I think Two Face would never take him being a deranged citizen seriously.

Which makes him less of a threat even if he is a baddie. Fair enough he can scan for a seer while he's untouched by Two Face but I think we're going to have to reckon with our seers having a limited shelf-life anyway.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

1. At least he "kills" one corruptible, then I wonder if he shifts to Arkham hunting. It could have been a bit better if we had seen one vanilla villager intead of 2 roled ones.

2. & 3. So you are taking the Anti Chief position. changing is more likely to to be villagers. At least y'all hit everyone there!

1. Once there's a conversion it's a whole different ball-game as the baddies have two kills.

2&3. Just a variant on my usual stance on villager-villager contests (which is what it's most likely to appear to be to all concerned). I'm probably going to have to re-evaluate it because it's becoming a bit of a cliche/truism but I'll stand by the logic in general at the moment.

[Narcizo]

Oh I'm pretty suspicious of people who have been around and aren't voting as well. Smacks of bet-hedging, see if anything shakes out before commiting to a vote.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

you post count padder

Ooooooh, Danny just got POSTED UP!

[IMG]blog.cleveland.com/cavs_impact/2009/06/large_Shaquille-ONeal-Cavaliers.jpg[/IMG]

[mckerney]

Dammit.

[ntndeacon]

eh, I guess I see what you are saying, but I don't necessarily see bet-hedging as lupine behavior.

[Autumn]

lol

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

eh, I guess I see what you are saying, but I don't necessarily see bet-hedging as lupine behavior.

I do. I understand that villagers do it, I've done it myself as a villager but I think that wolves have more interest in worrying about how their votes than villagers do.

[Commo_Soldier]

So danny, still curious about what your thoughts on me are as your reasoning for voting me yesterday was wrong.

[MrBug708]

Sorry, subbing today and dont have much thoughts to post in limited break time