NBA Draft Lottery/Draft/Offseason thread.

[Gary Gorski]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

that does suck. gotta say i agree with this point though:

The Rockets should do themselves a favor and just start over. That isn’t easy in a sophisticated and rabid NBA market like Houston, but what everyone long suspected has reached fruition: Yao and McGrady are no longer a faulty foundation, but a collapsed one. Houston needs to proceed with an understanding that they’re no longer chasing the Lakers, but beginning again.

That really sucks - he seems like a good guy and certainly very skilled. Houston had to think this would happen at some point though I'm sure they figured it would be a few more seasons at least. I hope that he can be back a season from now. In the meantime Houston needs to just blow it up - give T-Mac away and let Artest go and just start all over. That way if Yao comes back its a bonus but otherwise you're moving forward.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Gary Gorski

That really sucks - he seems like a good guy and certainly very skilled. Houston had to think this would happen at some point though I'm sure they figured it would be a few more seasons at least. I hope that he can be back a season from now. In the meantime Houston needs to just blow it up - give T-Mac away and let Artest go and just start all over. That way if Yao comes back its a bonus but otherwise you're moving forward.

Exactly my thinking.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by whomario

And his Turnovers ? Did you see a Davidson game this year ?

Yes I seen numerous Davidson games over the past 2 years. This is exactly why I am not as impressed by his game as some of you seem to be. It reminded of a junior high basketball game where the best scorer just takes the ball and dribbles around til he can create enough opening to throw up a shot.

Reddick on the other hand was like Reggie Miller coming off picks. He was able to use his teammates to set up his open looks. I really dont see a way Currys style as it is will be effective in the NBA. He was a streak shooter that sometimes needed to miss 10 in a row to get going. Is he going to get enough shots to be able to shoot himself out of slumps in the NBA?

Reddick did well within a team framework while Curry did well in an offense designed to allow him the opportunity to do as he pleased. Probably similiar in that of college to a QB in the Ohio St offense or a QB in the Hawaii offense.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

No chance! Duke has had some wonderful players (Grant Hill, Jayson Williams, Elton Brand, Christian Laetner, etc.) and none of them have come close to averaging that. They have too many other options.

Coach K is good at putting his players in situations to be effective IM really not sure where this "getting his offense to run through his best players" comes from. Other than Reddick scoring much more than any one of his teammates Duke is one of the most balanced scoring teams year in and year out because they are loaded.

I didn't mean that he picked one guy and ran the offense through him--but that he manages to tweak his offense to get the most out of the talent that he has.

Duke is, of course, loaded. But all of the top ten teams are. The difference is that guys like Mike Dunleavy Jr. look like stars under him because he can get the most out of them.

Reddick, IMHO, would have been seen as a good shooter had he played for another team. Because he played for Duke, he was seen as a co-National Player of the Year.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I didn't mean that he picked one guy and ran the offense through him--but that he manages to tweak his offense to get the most out of the talent that he has.

Duke is, of course, loaded. But all of the top ten teams are. The difference is that guys like Mike Dunleavy Jr. look like stars under him because he can get the most out of them.

Reddick, IMHO, would have been seen as a good shooter had he played for another team. Because he played for Duke, he was seen as a co-National Player of the Year.

I agree with all of this! I dont agree with Dukes stupid defense however. Pressure the ball out to half court, good pg dribbles past the 1st defender and creates so many easy opportunities for the other players when their guy has to come help out but thats a completely different topic.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by whomario

I dunno where you have that numbers from but they are false :

Aye, they are a projection based on how Euroleague numbers translate to the NBA (from John Hollinger):

Scoring rate decreases 25 percent
Rebound rate increases by 18 percent
Assist rate increases by 31 percent
Shooting percentage drops by 12 percent
Overall, player efficiency rating drops by 30 percent

Basically, the Euroleague numbers indicate how one fares against no defense. In the NBA, he will be defended - and probably shoot around 30%.

And Hollinger's analysis:
"OK, it's time to shine a harsher light here. There's one thing working hugely against Rubio's status as an A-list prospect that nobody seems to want to mention, so let me put it out there: There's very little evidence he can score at anything approaching an acceptable rate for an NBA point guard.

We have very little recent Euroleague data to work with from Rubio -- just a 66-minute sample from this year and a larger sample from two years earlier -- but both sets translate to scoring about five points per 40 minutes and shooting in the low 30s. Ugh. Rubio shot better in the Spanish ACB league this season, including 25-of-62 on 3-pointers, but he also shot only 39 percent on 2s against a lower level of competition.

Same goes for his alleged breakout in the Olympics -- as heralded as he was for his play, he made nine baskets in eight games and shot 28.1 percent for the tournament. And while one of those games was against a team full of U.S. All-Stars, he wasn't bedazzling the Germans or Angolans either. Obviously he's a Jason Kidd-like rarity in that he can have a heavy impact on the game without scoring, but if his shooting numbers don't improve, he'll make Kidd look like Rick Barry."

I just think that projecting him as a future NBA star is crazy based on where he has played. Euroleague is the same caliber of competition as high-major college ball, the league Rubio played in is roughly equivalent to big city high school basketball.

He may end up being great, but there are literally hundreds of Americans in every draft who would look as good as Rubio did against the level of competition he was playing against. His lack of shooting ability would keep him from doing what he reportedly does best - driving and dishing. The league trash heap is littered with guys who were drafted young and carried the "but he can develop a jump shot" tag.

[stevew]

I'd think he'll have a career path similar to Bassy Telfair. No jumper, eventually no rotation.

Unless he can overcome it, which I suppose is possible.

[Lathum]

Sportscenter reporting Yao may be done for career and at best will likely miss all of next season.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Samdari

I just think that projecting him as a future NBA star is crazy based on where he has played. Euroleague is the same caliber of competition as high-major college ball, the league Rubio played in is roughly equivalent to big city high school basketball.

this is just wrong. I am sorry, but your knowledge on european basketball is just highly underdeveloped. I don´t mean to offend you here, but that is just a terribly wrong statement.

First : is a good Euroleague Team a lot better than the best College Teams. Yes, a lot of College players go to Europe and do good there, but on any given College team there´s a couple rotation players and even starters that would not get a single minute on any decent Euroleague Team (there´s a couple teams that aren´t as good. It is NOT the best 32 teams of europe as no country gets more than 5 spots and some others get more than they deserve)
I mean, Jennings propably would have played 30 minutes averaging 15-18 points and 5-7 Assists in College. Did you see his numbers in Europe ? And he played on a good team, not a very good one. In a decent-good league, not a very good one.
Seriously, any younth/development team (which college teams are), no matter how talented, will loose to any even slightly comparably talented professional team 9 out of 10 times.
As an example from another sport : The best youth teams in Germany (Under 19 teams) regularly play friendlies against teams from the 4th league and below (so basically 70th best team and below) and regularly loose because what the veteran team lacks in talent they make up by experience.

Second : Spain has the strongest Domestic League, propably 10 teams every year could play competitively in the Euroleague, but not that many are allowed to participate. (just like in the World Cup propably 7 or 8 more european national teams could beat most that come from Asia or other obscure teams) .
Most years all spanish teams (5 currently) reach the 2nd stage of 16 after a 10 game round-robin schedule in 4 groups of 8 (32 teams).
This year the 5 spanish teams had a combined record of 35-15 in the first round and that´s with Joventud (Rubios team) included who struggled to 4-6 due to that Rubio injury and other problems. So the other 4 teams were 31-9. And the next best 5 teams would have propably had 3 qualified in their space.
Case in point, in the 2nd best continental Competition (Eurocup, formerly Uleb Cup) the 2 spanish team went 12-0 in the first round and 20-4 in the 2 group stages combined.


thirdly : Rubio barely played in the Euroleague this year. If he seriously took his numbers from this year where he basically only had 2 real games (and even those with a cast on) and made a projection off of that, than i suppose that´s fool proof, eh ?

Hollinger also projected Batum to never be anything who is on his way to become a quality starter, he also projected Diaw to suck and so on and so forth.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by whomario

Hollinger also projected Batum to never be anything who is on his way to become a quality starter, he also projected Diaw to suck and so on and so forth.

Hollinger bases his projections off of other players have come over so he's going miss sometimes. Just like any other person who projects what a player will be. With that said, Batum is far from a lock to become a quality starter and Diaw a below average NBA player.

Rubio can't shoot, can't defend, and isn't built like Jason Kidd so until he puts on weight he won't be rebounding. The comparisons to Kidd are way off base because has consistently been one of the top rebounding guards in the league and throughout most of his career has been one of the top defenders at his position.

Point guards that can't shoot and can't defend are destined for a life on the bench in the NBA. There's zero chance his playmaking ability can make up for those 2 areas so he has to get better at or the other, if not both.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Gary Gorski

That really sucks - he seems like a good guy and certainly very skilled. Houston had to think this would happen at some point though I'm sure they figured it would be a few more seasons at least. I hope that he can be back a season from now. In the meantime Houston needs to just blow it up - give T-Mac away and let Artest go and just start all over. That way if Yao comes back its a bonus but otherwise you're moving forward.

Of course, the Rockets went 2-2 in the playoffs against the Lakers without Yao and TMac, which is as many wins as any other team managed against them. I don't think there's a need to completely blow the team up, but if Yao is indeed done they need to find a way to bring in another star to lead the team...

[Sublime 2]

Rasheed is being linked to the Celtics already by some Boston outlets. There is suppose to be some more information tonight on Comcast Sports Net. If this becomes true, it's a huge help to Boston. From what I've seen, Rasheed does a pretty good job of guarding Howard. I'm not a huge fan of shot selection, but that is something I could certainly live with.

[DaddyTorgo]

is Sheed a FA, or what would the C's be giving up for him?

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

is Sheed a FA, or what would the C's be giving up for him?

Free Agent

[Gary Gorski]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Of course, the Rockets went 2-2 in the playoffs against the Lakers without Yao and TMac, which is as many wins as any other team managed against them. I don't think there's a need to completely blow the team up, but if Yao is indeed done they need to find a way to bring in another star to lead the team...

Yao's done for the year at least, McGrady isn't going to be ready for the start - do you really want to take Artest on in a long term deal when he's "the guy"? I think there's a high probability Artest gets bored/tired/goes loopy and then you're on the hook for years with that guy.

You take all three out of the equation and you've got what? Brooks is going to carry the team? Brooks, Scola, Battier...nice pieces to have around some stars but they're not even a playoff team without a full season from Yao and McGrady.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Free Agent

aaah. i don't love his shot selection all the time, but he's a nice complimentary piece that's for sure

[Gary Gorski]

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

Rasheed is being linked to the Celtics already by some Boston outlets. There is suppose to be some more information tonight on Comcast Sports Net. If this becomes true, it's a huge help to Boston. From what I've seen, Rasheed does a pretty good job of guarding Howard. I'm not a huge fan of shot selection, but that is something I could certainly live with.

Take him - please. You might get one year out of him where he'll play hard and help you win. Then you'll be stuck for however many years left with a guy who will camp out on the perimeter, rack up T after T and probably ruin the attitudes of your young players.

If Doc thinks he has his hands full with Rondo just wait til you add Sheed to that mix. Don't get me wrong - Rasheed Wallace is a very gifted player - but all the rest of the baggage comes along and even if it looks like it didn't at first don't worry - it's only temporarily lost and will find its way there.

[JPhillips]

Would Sheed be happy as a sixth man? I don't follow the NBA closely enough to know.

[DaddyTorgo]

lol - that's true. it'd hafta be a one or two year deal

[Swaggs]

I'm not a fan, but it makes a lot of sense for Wallace to land in Cleveland.

[RainMaker]

With how much the Celtics are pursuing a big man, it makes me wonder if the KG injury is much worse than they have led on.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

With how much the Celtics are pursuing a big man, it makes me wonder if the KG injury is much worse than they have led on.

could be...could be

[RainMaker]

If KG is healthy for next season, I'd just try and re-sign Davis. A guy who knows the system, plays defense, and has developed into a nice player. I can't imagine he'd cost much more than Rasheed.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'm not a fan, but it makes a lot of sense for Wallace to land in Cleveland.

Yeah. He would fit in. But he did say some bad things about the city and fans. If take him at the starting 4 for a year though

[Gary Gorski]

Originally Posted by stevew

Yeah. He would fit in. But he did say some bad things about the city and fans. If take him at the starting 4 for a year though

With Shaq and LeBron that's alot of ego already in Cleveland. I don't know if Sheed could fit and I doubt he would be willing to sign a one year deal. He's probably looking for one last decent contract now.

The thing about Rasheed is that if he doesn't come to Detroit we probably don't win that championship. We collectively disliked the guy for his antics elsewhere in the league but he came in, played hard, kept his mouth shut (mostly) and made us better and everyone loved him. Then all the new wore off and he not only went back to his old tricks but he ended up taking the rest of the team down that path into a bunch of whiners and complainers (yeah I'm talking to you Rip and Tayshaun). He gets coaches fired (although that would be an excellent reason for Cleveland to sign him) and will become a distraction at some point.

[stevew]

Some talk of Ron Artest to the cavs. I don't think he will turn down more money to sign in Cleveland. But if the MLE is all he can get. Mike Brown knows him first hand. So if he likes the move I can live with it. Even though I've come to terms that Brown wil be around for several more years. GRR.

[MikeVic]

I think the Cavs do jack shit in the offseason, or add someone that doesn't make sense. I'm just getting he vibe that I won't like the upcoming NBA season. Raps will suck, Orlando is ruined with crybaby Vince, and the Lakers will be in the Finals again with no real competition in the West.

[Big Fo]

The recent Yao news sucks as a neutral, one of the few good centers in the league gone for the year or longer. Plus the Lakers need all the challenge they can get out West as MikeVic just said.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Ric Bucher via Twitter

Yao update: Same situation as March '08. Returned for Olympics and best season. Likeliest scenario - surgery, misses part of next season.

Hopefully Ric has solid info on the situation...

[whomario]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Hopefully Ric has solid info on the situation...

more often than not he has, he´s pretty close to Yao from what i know, having co-written his autobiography with him as well.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by whomario

this is just wrong. I am sorry, but your knowledge on european basketball is just highly underdeveloped. I don´t mean to offend you here, but that is just a terribly wrong statement.

First : is a good Euroleague Team a lot better than the best College Teams. Yes, a lot of College players go to Europe and do good there, but on any given College team there´s a couple rotation players and even starters that would not get a single minute on any decent Euroleague Team

You've got this 100% backwards.

The best Euroleague teams have at most one or two NBA players. All of this year's final four teams will have at least 4 - UNC and Kansas on the order of 8 or 9. In any given draft, 1 or 2 Euroleague players end up NBA caliber, 30-40 college players do. But you're right, the talent level is higher in Euroleague.

I will agree that the Euroleague guys are more developed than college guys, because the best college guys are generally under 20. But talentwise, major college is eons ahead of Euroleague.

[whomario]

What relevance has talent in that discussion ? I spend like 20 minutes to explain it and you still come back to it ...
Basketball is a 12 (or 10 or 8, whatever your rotation) man sport and 1-12 every good Euroleague team blows every college team out of the water, thus it is much harder for a young player to produce in Europe rather than in College. Which was my point.
There´s a lot of European players that could have been NBA players but didn´t pursue it, there´s a ton of players that could right now play in the NBA. Not in the same role as in Europe but a lesser one, but they could play. But why play less minutes for less money further away from family and friends ?

And it is the 2nd tier in terms of talent (fair enough), but it´s the 2nd tier from age 18-35, not just 18-22. Thus it is also much tougher for a young player to develop fast enough to make it in the NBA at age 19-22, they don´t get handed Playing Time but have to earn it against veterans. Ask Jennings how it is and he had the advantage of being paid a ton of money, thus the Coach had to play him some at least as not to offend the management.
Virtually 80%+ of all drafted players from Europe were and are fringe players here getting very little playing time, here Rubio is an exception to the rule playing a consistent 25 minutes for the last couple years.
.
Of course more College player turn out to be good NBA players, but that doesn´t change that the average Eurleague Team is clearly better than the average Major College Team (Big East, ACC etc).
And i hope that Jennings has a good season and career, that would underline this pretty good.

And 4 to 9 NBA players ? I mean, if you speak about a couple years with 10 MPG. How about taking a look after a couple of years. Show me one roster featuring at any time 9 players that went on to play in the NBA... And if those 25-30 year old Euros would consider playing in a supporting role with less money there would be even less.

I mean, is Suton now an NBA player because he got drafted ? There´s propably 10-15 PFs of his style of play better than him on last league´s Euroleague Rosters. And he was Michigan´s 2nd best player in the torunament. Kailin Lucas won´t be more than a sparkplug in the NBA, either.
The same for guys like Dee Brown, Luther Head or James Augustine (3 of 4 NBA players from 2005 Illinois) , the same for guys like Jawad Williams, Sean May, Terry (5 PPG and 15 MPG in Italy btw) and Noel from 2005 North Carolina.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by whomario

here Rubio is an exception to the rule playing a consistent 25 minutes for the last couple years.

We're going have to agree to disagree on the level of competition in Euroleague vs college. Spending more time typing it does not make your explanation correct.

Rubio played 64 minutes TOTAL in Euroleague this year.

But you cannot possibly think a European minor league, where Rubio has spend most of the last year, is superior to elite US college ball, can you?

My whole point is that Rubio has not proven he can score at anywhere near a rate needed to be successful in the NBA when he has faced decent competition. The comparison made most often for Rubio is Jason Kidd - but he has always been a threat to score in order to set up his passing. Rubio has shown nothing to indicate he can do so, and its something you HAVE to be able to do to be a successful NBA point guard.

[Sublime 2]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

If KG is healthy for next season, I'd just try and re-sign Davis. A guy who knows the system, plays defense, and has developed into a nice player. I can't imagine he'd cost much more than Rasheed.

See I completely disagree with this. I like Baby, but I really don't want to see him in a C's uniform for the next 5 years. He made the most of the KG injury, good for him, but please don't re-sign him. I may be in the minority on this one, but I'd rather stick it out with only one undersized PF in Powe (knee injury and all).

[larrymcg421]

I agree. I think Baby's price is much higher than his worth right now, whereas Powe is the exact opposite.

[albionmoonlight]

Y'all need to have some kind of bet or something.

Over/under on all-star games by Ricky Rubio by 2015 or something like that.

[MikeVic]

I set the line at 2.5.

[DaddyTorgo]

by 2015?

I'll say "Under"

[Coffee Warlord]

Under.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

That's a pretty high line, there. Aren't you saying will he or won't he make 3 All-Star games his first 5 years? That's pretty difficult. Chris Paul, if he's an All-Star next year, makes it.

[larrymcg421]

Really. Even those who think he could be very good aren't going to take the over there.

The line should be 0.5

Does he make one or not?

[DaddyTorgo]

by 2015 yes he makes one

make the line 1.5 and it'd be a tougher call

[MikeVic]

Ok, the comparisons of Rubio made me believe he's supposed to be some sort of superstar. If he makes one All-Star game by 2015 he's a bust relative to the comparisons he gets.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Really. Even those who think he could be very good aren't going to take the over there.

The line should be 0.5

Does he make one or not?

I'd say its gotta be 1.5.

Mo Williams has made one all star team, and he's a journeyman. I'd say that if Rubio turns out as good a Mo Williams, whoever overpays the Wolves for him will be very disappointed.

All star games is not a great measure. Carmelo Anthony has been one of the best 24 players in the league in each of the last 5 seasons. He's made two all star games.

[Gary Gorski]

How does he possibly make an all-star game with Chris Paul and Deron Williams (and even Tony Parker) in the West?

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Gary Gorski

How does he possibly make an all-star game with Chris Paul and Deron Williams (and even Tony Parker) in the West?

Yeah you're right about that...

I'd say that if Rubio isn't starting and averaging something like 8ppg, double-figures in assists, and shooting 40-FG, 80-FT, 30-3FG by 2015 then he hasnt lived up to what he should be. Is that fair?

[TroyF]

Just to throw some things in here, I 100% agree with Samdari. I love the way Rubio passes the ball. But he can't score. He has never done it in Spain, he didn't do it in the Olympics. He simply doesn't score.

I'm not going to say Rubio WILL fail, because he could always add a jump shot, get his points per game to the 15 level and become a stud. He's still young. That said, I haven't seen any indication he can do it yet. If he doesn't VASTLY improve his scoring, he has zero chance of being a star in this league.

I think the Nuggets got the best PG in this draft. We'll see how that shows up over time.

I think any contending team will do well to stay the hell away from Rasheed Wallace.

Lastly, I think whomario is vasly overrating the euro leagues. There may be 14 or 15 better players than Suton out there, but they weren't draft eligible. (or they'd have been taken) There were 14 total Euros taken in the NBA draft. NBA teams know where to go to find the best talent. Sometimes they do this to too high of a degree. (which is why we see so many Euro busts taken in the top 5)

[MikeVic]

You know how was a good Euro, Toni Kukoc.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

double-figures in assists

2009: 2 (Paul, Williams)
2008: 4 (Paul, Nash, Williams, Kidd)
2007: 1 (Nash)
2006: 1 (Nash)
2005: 1 (Nash)
2004: 0

I still think you're setting the bar way too high.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Gary Gorski

How does he possibly make an all-star game with Chris Paul and Deron Williams (and even Tony Parker) in the West?

This. You've got Paul, Williams and Parker as autos if they stay healthy. You still have the old guard of Nash and Billups playing at a good level. Then you have a guy like Westbrook moving up.

Of course, he may be in the East by the time the season starts. All he'll have to deal with there is Rondo, Jameer, Rose, and Harris.

And I didn't even mention guys like Baron Davis, Calderon, Sessions, Ford, Robinson, Stuckey, Lowry, or Brooks. (all guys who either have a shot to improve or are capable of putting up an all star type season)

Again, this comes down to how well he can score. If he averages under 10 points a game, he will not be an all star. Ever.