WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Just as I said yesterday, I'm happy to have any kind of conversation with the Friend of the Bank that they would like to pursue.

However, the wolves do have an incentive to invest money in CDs to grow those assets as long as they can still pass that along to other players if they are in a pinch with the vote.

So do we. I assume most of us have a good chunk of money in CD's.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Way off topic, but

ok I have a problem with Arles still being in this game.
He was on here viewing just after lynch and nothing was said.
Yes he's probally a villager, but a worthless one at that right now to us as a village.

Barkeep is this being addressed or will it be today to have a replacement named well before deadline?


sorry had to get that off my chest.

He asked to withdraw last night. I've been too busy to look for a replacement player until now. I'm going to send out a couple of feelers and hope that someone will step in.

[hoopsguy]

Right, I'm disputing the notion that they want all their money outside of banks to foil the Friend of Bank.

They don't want to have an unexplainable amount of money in the bank, but I would be very surprised if they are keeping the majority of their cash on hand.

Remember, they don't automatically get the night cash. They either got 7,500 or 0 from Lathum, depending on if he won the seer that day. I have no idea what they obtained from Saldana, but it could very well have been zero.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

Truth be told, you're much higher on my list than Schmidty is.

Doesn't that fly in the face of everything you said in the post I was replying to?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Right, I'm disputing the notion that they want all their money outside of banks to foil the Friend of Bank.

They don't want to have an unexplainable amount of money in the bank, but I would be very surprised if they are keeping the majority of their cash on hand.

Remember, they don't automatically get the night cash. They either got 7,500 or 0 from Lathum, depending on if he won the seer that day. I have no idea what they obtained from Saldana, but it could very well have been zero.

I'm not sure I follow. You're disputing the notion that they want all their monry outside of banks -- but then you say thet don't want to have an unexplainable amount of money in the bank?

As for Lathum, based on what you've said, I find it unlikely that they got 7500 from him -- that just seems like too much of a coincidence.

[Passacaglia]

I think it boils down to whether or not the wolves started with more money than we did. If so, then they'll definitely want to make sure they don't leave it in the bank. Even if that's not the case, my guess is that they'd be wary of putting too much in. As of Day 1, the most we could have had in the bank was 30K. As of Day 2, the most we could have had in the bank was 46.5K -- and that's by putting all the money in a CD Day 1, then moving it all to the bank. If anyone showed up with numbers higher than this, it should be setting off alarm bells to the friend of the bank.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Doesn't that fly in the face of everything you said in the post I was replying to?

I don't think so. I lean more towards the idea that Schmidty was played rather than vice versa.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Remember, they don't automatically get the night cash. They either got 7,500 or 0 from Lathum, depending on if he won the seer that day. I have no idea what they obtained from Saldana, but it could very well have been zero.

True, but I don't follow how that is relevant. I'm talking about using the Friend of the Bank service to get a better idea of who is being straight up when discussing bids.

[hoopsguy]

OK, you can get a sense for when someone is being honest about a bid. But for that to happen people have to be willing to talk about their successful and failed bids. That didn't happen yesterday with any services. Today we have Alan and Schmidty talking about winning services, and me talking about entering a losing bid, but there is still a lot of stuff not being addressed.

Obviously two services were purchased D1 that were not discussed (FOB and Get Out of Bankrupcy Free) yesterday.
Two services were purchased D2 that have not yet been discussed (FOB and Bodyguard).

Only one person that I recall (me) has given any indication of a failed bid for a service, let alone the amount spent.

So if we are planning to make use of the FOB, we need people to open up their discussion quite a bit (pros and cons to this) and also a way to determine if the FOB can validate bank accounts vs CDs to assess bids.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, you can get a sense for when someone is being honest about a bid. But for that to happen people have to be willing to talk about their successful and failed bids. That didn't happen yesterday with any services. Today we have Alan and Schmidty talking about winning services, and me talking about entering a losing bid, but there is still a lot of stuff not being addressed.

Obviously two services were purchased D1 that were not discussed (FOB and Get Out of Bankrupcy Free) yesterday.
Two services were purchased D2 that have not yet been discussed (FOB and Bodyguard).

Only one person that I recall (me) has given any indication of a failed bid for a service, let alone the amount spent.

So if we are planning to make use of the FOB, we need people to open up their discussion quite a bit (pros and cons to this) and also a way to determine if the FOB can validate bank accounts vs CDs to assess bids.

You left out all of the discussion regarding that I had failed to get the Get out of bankrupcy free service the first day. We actually talked about that a fair bit yesterday morning as not much else was being discussed at the time.

[hoopsguy]

Thanks for the correction, Alan.

[Passacaglia]

hoops, do you feel comfortable saying what amount you got from mauboy? Reading back, I couldn't tell if he sent you 6,500 or 16,500.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think Saldana is Lathum's ex-girlfriend or something like that.

this made me snort

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Thanks for the correction, Alan.

Heh, I am getting the feeling you are getting tired of me correcting your errors today


Ok, Hoops, right now if I had to be honest, you just don't have me convinced. Part of it is your story isn't sitting too well with me, but part is that you just are coming across to me as just apathetic, or like you aren't giving it your all to try to convince me or others otherwise. I know in the past you have worked very hard to try to talk people away from voting you both when you were a wolf and when you were a villager.

I don't have to vote for another 2 1/2 hours but then I will need to before I leave. If I were to not look in your direction today, what path are you thinking of taking? I am not sold on your thoughts about Tyrith, I haven't seen anything from him that "Screams" wolf thus far to me. I don't see much of anything from yesterday's votes to go on as the only person I would really have questions about was saved by someone whom turned out to be good.

If I was to look at who the two night kills were "after" prior to death, Lathum seemed to have issues with you and Saldana thought the opposite that the wolves were newer players or inexperienced... I don't really put alot of weight into the whole thought that wolves would take out people whom were after them.. that seems too obvious to me.

The only other possible direction I could see going in would be to look at who threw away votes yesterday to allow us to bankrupt one of our own, but off the top of my head I don't have who that is in list form..

I'm curious what your thoughts are.. if you were to persuade me to go elsewhere, who would you push me to today?

[Passacaglia]

What do you all think of SnDvls? There was a small bit of heat on him, but then moves toward mau and sal (both good) showed up. Off to verify that.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What do you all think of SnDvls? There was a small bit of heat on him, but then moves toward mau and sal (both good) showed up. Off to verify that.

The "heat" on sndvls was applied by you and mauboy and that is it. If Sndvls was bad, he was "saved" by Saldana who also is good. I went down this path this morning when I was looking at the votes and posted my thoughts there... I wouldn't necessarily call the vote being 2-1-1-1 or whatever it was as "heat"

[hoopsguy]

I don't think that I'm apathetic, but I am not sure that I have it in me today to take on all comers. I'll engage in any kind of give-and-take dialogue. I'll answer any questions. If you don't believe what I'm saying, you should strongly consider voting me. If enough people vote for me, I'll do what I can to put my money where I think it remains in the hands of the Rich.

If people start putting votes on me early enough, you'll see the cash move as it becomes inevitable that I'm going to die. And I expect that will serve as some kind of a message to people that "oops, we are screwing this up" because a wolf would silently transfer their assets rather than moving 10K, 20K, 30K, 40K, etc. The only stuff I can't move is my assets that were in 3-day bonds, which do represent a portion of my overall net worth.

I really haven't dredged posts yet to determine who my candidates are, but you are discounting Tyrith when he is one of the people I have greater doubt for right now. Similarly, I'm not sold on you as a good guy either but somehow I don't think I'm getting you to vote for yourself.

I'll put together a trust list based on my impressions so far as part of my next long post.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

The "heat" on sndvls was applied by you and mauboy and that is it. If Sndvls was bad, he was "saved" by Saldana who also is good. I went down this path this morning when I was looking at the votes and posted my thoughts there... I wouldn't necessarily call the vote being 2-1-1-1 or whatever it was as "heat"

It may not have been heat, but he was the lead vote-getter for at least a little while. My thinking was that it was Tyrith and clap who put the votes to make it 4-2-2. Clap had two votes on him, so I could see his vote as self-defense, but Tyrith was the one who gave mauboy the lead. Now I'm off to see what hoops had to say about Tyrith -- it didn't seem to convince me before, but this makes me think it's worth another look (or maybe another reiteration, hoops?)

[Passacaglia]

Similarly, I'm not sold on you as a good guy either but somehow I don't think I'm getting you to vote for yourself.

I tried that line on path last game. Didn't work. Of course, we were both wolves then.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

It may not have been heat, but he was the lead vote-getter for at least a little while. My thinking was that it was Tyrith and clap who put the votes to make it 4-2-2. Clap had two votes on him, so I could see his vote as self-defense, but Tyrith was the one who gave mauboy the lead. Now I'm off to see what hoops had to say about Tyrith -- it didn't seem to convince me before, but this makes me think it's worth another look (or maybe another reiteration, hoops?)

I was the lead vote getter because you voted for me (wrongly I might add as it was pointed out to you just after your vote) and because mauboy voted me in retalitaion for my vote on him.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I was the lead vote getter because you voted for me (wrongly I might add as it was pointed out to you just after your vote) and because mauboy voted me in retalitaion for my vote on him.

Right -- I admitted to being wrong about that. I used your post to determine who didn't vote, and when I found out that DT had voted, I accidentally blamed you for the mistake. But what I'm asking now is whether or not what happened yesterday amounted to a wolf attempt to save you.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Right -- I admitted to being wrong about that. I used your post to determine who didn't vote, and when I found out that DT had voted, I accidentally blamed you for the mistake. But what I'm asking now is whether or not what happened yesterday amounted to a wolf attempt to save you.

I was "saved" by mauboy and Saldana, both good villagers per their deaths, so I doubt any wolves were involved there.

[Tyrith]

I fully expect to not make the weekend at this point. Hopefully because hoops comes up bad; but if he's good I figure it's pretty likely I'll be lynched tomorrow. I can cope with that.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I was "saved" by mauboy and Saldana, both good villagers per their deaths, so I doubt any wolves were involved there.

You don't think Tyrith, clap, or even DT had anything to do with it? I just mentioned Tyrith and clap a few posts ago, and DT's vote made it 5-2-2. I think by then, you were out of the woods, so I think that bringing up mau as someone who saved you (when he was obviously trying to save himself), doesn't make sense to me. For the same reason, I'm less skeptical of DT's vote -- I don't think he votes to give mau a three vote lead, putting himself out there, if he's a wolf trying to save you.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

hoops, do you feel comfortable saying what amount you got from mauboy? Reading back, I couldn't tell if he sent you 6,500 or 16,500.

Never mind about this, hoops. I missed one of mauboy's votes. Three of his votes were labeled 'mau' and the other was labeled 'mauboy' so even though it was right next to another one, I missed it.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

You don't think Tyrith, clap, or even DT had anything to do with it? I just mentioned Tyrith and clap a few posts ago, and DT's vote made it 5-2-2. I think by then, you were out of the woods, so I think that bringing up mau as someone who saved you (when he was obviously trying to save himself), doesn't make sense to me. For the same reason, I'm less skeptical of DT's vote -- I don't think he votes to give mau a three vote lead, putting himself out there, if he's a wolf trying to save you.

mau voted 4 times last night...twice for both me and Sal...if he was really trying to save himself he did a poor job of it by basically canceling out his votes. so yes I feel he had aroud about way of "saving" me

I think you are just barking up the wrong tree is all with me

[Passacaglia]

Why are you guys putting saved in quotation marks all the time?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

mau voted 4 times last night...twice for both me and Sal...if he was really trying to save himself he did a poor job of it by basically canceling out his votes. so yes I feel he had aroud about way of "saving" me

I think you are just barking up the wrong tree is all with me

I'm not saying that I understand what he did. But I don't think you can say that he was saving you, but was unable to save himself. That's why I'd rather leave him out of it, and not divert attention away from Tyrith, clap, and DT.

I'm interested to read hoops's long post, and Tyrith's answer. I've got an hour and a half to think about it.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why are you guys putting saved in quotation marks all the time?

because it's your word not mine.

To be "saved" by a wolf you generally have to be one and I'm not.
I haven't seen a game yet where a wolf would "save" a villager.

[SnDvls]

dola -

I guess it's Alan's and your word

he used it first

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

dola -

I guess it's Alan's and your word

he used it first

Perhaps I did use it first, but I put it in Quotes when I used it for pretty much the same meaning that you just gave. I don't see yesterday's vote as anyone saving you.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

I fully expect to not make the weekend at this point. Hopefully because hoops comes up bad; but if he's good I figure it's pretty likely I'll be lynched tomorrow. I can cope with that.

Why would you say this? I have one vote at the moment, and I don't think I'm in a "me vs Tyrith" mode.

Do I trust you less than the "average" villager at the moment? Yep, but that is partly because I don't have a lot of evidence to work with.

And if you are a member of the Rich, and you are suggesting that if I'm good and you are good that you are OK with us going down on Days 3 + 4 then you are crazy. A four day hole is a huge swing for us to give up, and it would put us in a horrible position to win this game. You, and pretty much any other villager, should fight like nuts to avoid us going down 4-0 rather than suggesting you are pretty OK with it.

[Passacaglia]

Yeah, it was SD and Alan I was referring to when I said "you guys" -- it just feels like you're trying to discredit it by pretending it didn't happen, rather than analyze it.

[Passacaglia]

But yeah, I guess Alan did use it first -- I hadn't even said "saved" -- um, without the quotes. But my thinking still stands -- I think the focus is on sal and mau when I'm suggesting more viable (and still alive, with allegiance unknown) candidates for, uh, "saving" SnDvls.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Why would you say this? I have one vote at the moment, and I don't think I'm in a "me vs Tyrith" mode.

Do I trust you less than the "average" villager at the moment? Yep, but that is partly because I don't have a lot of evidence to work with.

And if you are a member of the Rich, and you are suggesting that if I'm good and you are good that you are OK with us going down on Days 3 + 4 then you are crazy. A four day hole is a huge swing for us to give up, and it would put us in a horrible position to win this game. You, and pretty much any other villager, should fight like nuts to avoid us going down 4-0 rather than suggesting you are pretty OK with it.

No, I fully expect you're lynched today. And if you turn up good I expect that I'll be lynched tomorrow, even though it's wrong. Will that cause us to lose the game? Possibly, but in this game the money will live on. And if you turn up bad I suspect I'll be dead tonight. Hazard of the job.

[Passacaglia]

I mean, it'd be one thing if you said "I can see where you're coming from" (with or without quotes), then said something like "I don't think the wolves would let two of their ilk get outed like that," -- I mean, that's how the game is played! But instead it seems like you're ignoring part of what I'm saying, and basing your argument on the "fact" (notice the quotes) that you're a villager.

That said, I'm pretty torn. Most of this is just bringing up some discussion points. Truth be told, I *don't* think the wolves would let two of their ilk get outed like that. I'm just confused by the way this discussion is going.

[hoopsguy]

1. Lathum - dead
2. Pass - slightly less trust than normal, I don't see a consistent thought process at work in his approach to game as I have in games where he is a well-intended villager.
3. hoopsguy - known good
4. path - neutral for now, will drop quickly in coming day(s) if I don't see him begin to apply analysis like he does as a villager
5. Render - posts are random, somewhat detached, a guy I'm forgetting is in the game. slightly less than normal trust, as I've seen him turtle as a bad guy before
6. Arles - MIA, not obtaining cash
7. Alan T - has two bids that can't be verified (failed tie, successful bid), playing role of doubter stringing me along with questions. We generally play very poorly together as teammates, always doubting each other, and I'm wondering if this is what is happening here. Slight distrust, but not going to vote that direction today unless someone else can present better case
8. The Jackal - completely off the map, first time playing with him
9. Chief Rum - has basically gunned for me from outset, but I still trust him more than norm for now because I don't think this would be his wolf strategy. I just think he will need to open his mind up to alternate strategies because his current one is a loser
10. mauboy - dead
11. Schmidty - purchased seer D2? medium trust
12. claphamsa - the candidate with multiple votes from yesterday that I like the most out of the current batch. Playing a less engaged game than I've seen in past from him, more similar to last game (when he was good) when he was traveling
13. SnDvls - minimal read, pretty consistent with my usual gaming experience with him. Just like MrW, he is a pretty careful player in his statements
14. Mr. Wednesday - would really like to know what he was doing yesterday, as he suggesting he was going to bid big but doesn't appear to have won a service. 2nd guy (besides me) known to have some money due to inheritance. Slight distrust, feels like he has played "good cop" with his statements towards/about me this game
15. Swaggs - dead
16. DaddyTorgo - get in the game, dude! No real feelings after learning he did vote on Day 1
17. saldana - dead
18. Tyrith - slight distrust as he keeps popping up in my theories for bad guy play. But radar hasn't treated me that kindly so far this game


We're playing with awfully limited information at the moment. Assuming nothing else is coming out - and I don't know why people who won the BG or Friend of Bank wouldn't, given the marginal amount of money required to win those services yesterday - I would probably look at Pass, Render, or Tyrith for my voting choice. I could be talked into TheJackal and would like to have more information on MrW as he has become a person of some prominence based on his inheritance.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

But yeah, I guess Alan did use it first -- I hadn't even said "saved" -- um, without the quotes. But my thinking still stands -- I think the focus is on sal and mau when I'm suggesting more viable (and still alive, with allegiance unknown) candidates for, uh, "saving" SnDvls.

I've got no problems discussion your other canidates, but won't discuss me because there is nothing to discuss about me I'm good.

there are 4 names that jump out at me from the voting from yesterday and all 4 were within 10-12 posts of each other.

Tyrith, Clap, Path & Jackyl

they even paired up in their votes so I'd bet we have 2 wolves in this group is my thinking.

discuss??

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I've got no problems discussion your other canidates, but won't discuss me because there is nothing to discuss about me I'm good.

there are 4 names that jump out at me from the voting from yesterday and all 4 were within 10-12 posts of each other.

Tyrith, Clap, Path & Jackyl

they even paired up in their votes so I'd bet we have 2 wolves in this group is my thinking.

discuss??

Remember the constraint that both path and I had to leave, so the timing is kind of funky.

[claphamsa]

I cannot think of the last time I went anywhere....

[Passacaglia]

hoops, I agree with you that the BG should come out -- if anything, that will make him safer the next day, since he will have less money. I can see the friend of the bank wanting to keep it secret -- there's info there that the wolves probably shouldn't have. Otherwise, why bid on it?

[claphamsa]

oh wait... I did go to NY ... NVM

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

hoops, I agree with you that the BG should come out -- if anything, that will make him safer the next day, since he will have less money. I can see the friend of the bank wanting to keep it secret -- there's info there that the wolves probably shouldn't have. Otherwise, why bid on it?

He doesn't have to tell us everything. There are selected pieces of information taht could be useful.

[Passacaglia]

11. Schmidty - purchased seer D2? medium trust

Just to reply to the question mark there -- I believe that Schmidty did purchase the seer.

[SnDvls]

OOG: I only have a 1/2 hour left today as the wife and I are going to the Dr. to hopefully find out the sex of our twins today.

so I will be placing a vote then and I would imagine anyone voting me should come under some heavy fire as I won't be back at all to defend myself

FYI

/end OOG

[Tyrith]

Well, I've held off as long as I can.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Just to reply to the question mark there -- I believe that Schmidty did purchase the seer.

Since it hasn't been challenged, I agree.

Of course, I could pull the same argument that Chief used with me ... "of course he says he purchased the seer, someone on the wolves grabbed it and is using that to their advantage". I don't think that is the case, though. I'm taking what he says at face value.

[Passacaglia]

I'm going to put in a vote on Tyrith. I'm not sure what I think of hoops, but I have two slight reasons now to vote for him.

VOTE TYRITH

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Since it hasn't been challenged, I agree.

Of course, I could pull the same argument that Chief used with me ... "of course he says he purchased the seer, someone on the wolves grabbed it and is using that to their advantage". I don't think that is the case, though. I'm taking what he says at face value.

You could, but I wouldn't believe that argument. I think I was exploring a similar argument with path this morning, but having looked back at the posts, I just wanted to get it out there that I believe Schmidty.

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, you are making it pretty hard for me not to turn this into a "me vs you" argument. Even though you suggest as a villager that this would be an awfully bad path to take.

I would like to know if any other person in the game has been dissected and asked to give such a thorough accounting of their actions and thought processes as I have? Actually, never mind - I already know the answer to that question. I'll probably start making changes to how I play the game and see if I like the results any better.

You and Schmidty are both casting bad votes today. I had some less pleasant things typed out, but I'll hold my tongue on them for now. For the rest of the people trying to figure out where to go today, I would recommend looking somewhere else.

Where else? Heck if I know. Someone else can lead, I'll just follow along and blame them when it doesn't work out.