WW 109 - Hungry for Gold (Game Over, Wolves Win, Team USA Wins)

[Passacaglia]

I guess I'd really like to see the analysis on DV now, then.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Isn't it Day 4?

yes, and I thought I had put in something before I left for the evening on the second night. So Martin was day 1
Poli was day 3

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I guess looking at it through the team lens, the vote movement makes more sense yesterday. NTN and Poli being the targets, the sudden movement to me makes sense, given that it was almost entirely by their team.

In which case I don't have a lot to go by right now. I'm looking now at Darth and CF who just voted each other, wasted votes on Day 2. CF also voted Darth day one, I don't recall why. I guess I'm likely to go to one of them.

I will be gone the afternoon and will check back in later to see where voting is heading.

This is what I was talking about. Now let me say that I have not viewed Darth so am using analysis alone here.

[Darth Vilus]

so who was the third person you clleared then ntn?

[ntndeacon]

me , Darth.

[Passacaglia]

NTN -- how do you know you're not the Fool?

[Thomkal]

unvote ntndeacon

[KWhit]

I'll believe ntndeacon for now.

Vote Pass

[ntndeacon]

That is a concern of course. but even then I have brought one more into the known. And either I will stay alive clearing more folks until we are sure or that prospect will eventually cause the wolves to move. Regardless I am not going to vote for any I believe villagers.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

me , Darth.

No i mean the other person. It's day 4, you should have 3 scans in and be able to clear 4 people total

[hoopsguy]

OK, just signing in now. Will be doing some speed reading to try and get informed vote/action in before deadline.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I'll believe ntndeacon for now.

Vote Pass

That forces my hand a little.

VOTE DARTH VILUS

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

No i mean the other person. It's day 4, you should have 3 scans in and be able to clear 4 people total

there is no other person, in my original post outing myself I stated that on day 2 I didn't get a pm in in time.

[hoopsguy]

Well, I'm not the seer so that is one more person who is not countering the seer claim.

Assuming it is legit, we have the following cleared players:
NTN, PB, me, Poli

So, with those in hand we should have a pretty decent shot today. I've got to put some time in with my kid (solo dad duty tonight) but my first point of interest were those who seemed to be promoting NTN as a candidate for the votes the last couple of days. The "P1/P2, whoever survives the lynch = tomorrow's candidate" is often a good argument, but looks pretty dubious in light of today's reveal.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

yes, and I thought I had put in something before I left for the evening on the second night. So Martin was day 1
Poli was day 3

I don't think you're the seer, the circumstances don't match up. Why scan martin instead of telle? Wouldn't clearing your team be the first 2 logical scans since u would be able to confide in them that u were the seer? this would help keep u alive longer and allow u to provide your scan results to 2 other people, thus not losing the information in the event of your death.

whoever the real seer is don't reveal just yet.

assuming the real seer scanned one person each day and there are 3 wolves that gives the seer a 50% chance of hitting one of them. More so if there were a conversion (i can't remember). With that ratio i wouldn't put it past the wolves to sacrifice one of there own in order to take out such a powerful player as the seer.

It makes no sense for u to have revealed at thhis time

[ntndeacon]

Well Darth. I did not think of that day one. I looked at the one who voted for me day one instead.

[Darth Vilus]

I'd say that's a pretty huge mistake. it makes perfect sense to clear someone u have PM rights with first

[Darth Vilus]

And

Vote Pass

btw

[ntndeacon]

I thought it made great sense since it looked probable of being voted out.

[Darth Vilus]

if u say so. I respectively disagree

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

And

Vote Pass

btw

Before I read your post -- if you don't believe him, why did you vote for me?

[hoopsguy]

Darth, if you think that NTN is lying about being the seer then why in the world would you then vote for Pass? That doesn't add up at all for me.

[EagleFan]

As of 670:

Passacaglia 4 - Poli (603), Telle (629), KWhit (658), Darth Vilus (668)
ntndeacon 2 - Autumn (622), PurdueBrad (643)
Darth Vilus 2 - ntndeacon (640), Passacaglia (662)

[Darth Vilus]

self preservation, it seems people are starting to unvote ntndeacon. it feels like it's going to be a run between me and pass

[Passacaglia]

Actually that makes a lot of sense, DV. If I were the seer (I'm not) I would definitely scan my teammates -- especially if I'm going to reveal as the seer before making sure I'm the seer and not the fool.

[Passacaglia]

UNVOTE DARTH VILUS
VOTE NTNDEACON

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Actually that makes a lot of sense, DV. If I were the seer (I'm not) I would definitely scan my teammates -- especially if I'm going to reveal as the seer before making sure I'm the seer and not the fool.

I'm really glad you see my point

[hoopsguy]

I think there are three possible scenarios at play with Darth:
1.) He is the seer, thus knows that NTN is lying. If that is the case, his vote for Pass signifies that he knows two wolves.
2.) He is a wolf trying to discredit the seer.
3.) He is a villager who is doing his best to interpret data.

#1/#2 are both positive for the village, resulting in either two wolves or a bigger COT + 1 wolf. #3 is the most damaging scenario if in fact NTN is the seer.

[hoopsguy]

NTN - did you ever communicate your seer status to Poli prior to revealing in the thread?

[EagleFan]

As of 676:

Passacaglia 4 - Poli (603), Telle (629), KWhit (658), Darth Vilus (668)
ntndeacon 3 - Autumn (622), PurdueBrad (643), Passacaglia (676)
Darth Vilus 1 - ntndeacon (640)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

I'm really glad you see my point

Cool. Does it affect your vote any?

[Darth Vilus]

it might, it depends on if anyone else sees my point.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

NTN - did you ever communicate your seer status to Poli prior to revealing in the thread?

Same question, substitute Telle for Poli.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think there are three possible scenarios at play with Darth:
1.) He is the seer, thus knows that NTN is lying. If that is the case, his vote for Pass signifies that he knows two wolves.
2.) He is a wolf trying to discredit the seer.
3.) He is a villager who is doing his best to interpret data.

#1/#2 are both positive for the village, resulting in either two wolves or a bigger COT + 1 wolf. #3 is the most damaging scenario if in fact NTN is the seer.

Those are all very plausible. i wonder what the wolves think

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

NTN - did you ever communicate your seer status to Poli prior to revealing in the thread?

no I didn't. The reason being that if Idid and Telle was a Wolf it would be the same as if isaid it here but with more bad side effects.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

no I didn't. The reason being that if Idid and Telle was a Wolf it would be the same as if isaid it here but with more bad side effects.

Hence scanning poli and telle in the beginning. which according to u you did not do

[hoopsguy]

NTN, you told us who you scanned but who did you scan day by day?

[ntndeacon]

right. Idid not think of that until after the first day.

[Poli]

This is all news to me...I had no idea.

[ntndeacon]

I actually said that too, hoops, but here it is again:

Day 1: MartinD
Day 2 : no scan
Day 3: Poli
Day 4: there is a scan in but obviously idont know the results yet.

[hoopsguy]

NTN, why not PM Poli once you knew that he was a villager?

I had thought perhaps you had after re-reading his first post/vote this morning, but now both of you are saying that this is not the case.

And what motivated MartinD as a Day 1 choice? Was there something in the vote, or his play, that led you in that direction?

[ntndeacon]

Because I thought Ihad to PM the entire team .

And Martin Voted for me. so it was an effort to see if a wolf had lucked into the seer day 1.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Because I thought Ihad to PM the entire team .

This is correct.

[ntndeacon]

that was perhaps a bad reading of the rules , but it was what I believed th rules to be.

[hoopsguy]

OK, thanks for clarification. Still catching up on the particulars of this rule set a bit.

[hoopsguy]

In my options above I failed to consider NTN = Fool as well.

[Passacaglia]

Actually, I thought you had to PM the entire team, too.

But what do you mean about a wolf lucking into the seer? Is there some rule involving that? I don't remember reading anything about it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

That is a concern of course. but even then I have brought one more into the known. And either I will stay alive clearing more folks until we are sure or that prospect will eventually cause the wolves to move. Regardless I am not going to vote for any I believe villagers.

hoops, here was NTN's reply when I asked him about being the fool.

[ntndeacon]

I wanted to check that the person that voted for the seer was good. it seemed logical to me.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not sure where to go with this, honestly. Possible wolf fake, possible fool ... but I don't think we're in an end-game situation here. So with that in mind I'll believe the seer reveal (don't think they would bluff missing a scan) and go after the uncleared person questioning him.

VOTE DARTH VILUS