02-12-2011, 10:09 PM | #651 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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Monday at 9pm EST. I have a few posts to make, but I'm going to throw this one out there first. I think every day from this point on should start with each person making a post of who they bet on for the lynch. Before you say, "He's a wolf for suggesting this", hear me out. Yesterday I was thinking about playing defense with my vote, not wanting to lynch the obvious target where there was a good chance a wolf would make money when I didn't feel that strongly about the target being a wolf. The thing is, at this point, I have a few people out there that I have trust for, and seeing how we haven't had much success to this point, I want to be able to play offense also. If I see the vote as a tossup between equal candidates, I want to vote for the one that Chief Rum voted for because I know it's ok if money ends up in his pockets even if the lynch turns out to be a villager. Another benefit is it gives the village more information to work with. The bookie service turns into almost a second seer scan to see if people were being truthful with their bets. By doing this, we force the wolves to either be truthful about who they're betting for or lie and risk being caught out. If they want to protect the information, that's more resources they have to spend on the bookie and less they have to spend on the NK / seer / etc... Lastly, when we hopefully start lynching some wolves, we might be able to piece things together with how they bet and link them with others in their mobster group. Now of course I'm not blind to the downsides. There is risk in the plan including: 1. The wolves will know where the money winds up and get a more obvious choice for a NK. To counter that, I would point out that this gives the person who buys the BG a good idea of who to protect and also if a couple trusted people end up with a bet on the same candidate, we can be assured of spreading the wealth to reduce risk. 2. The results of the bookie stuff as reported in thread could end up being falsified. Not much to say about that except again we can force the wolves to spend money at a place they probably don't want to and that this is a problem that could happen with the seer scan at any point as well. All in all, I think the positives outweigh the benefits, it's a gamble but I think it's the right direction for us to go. |
02-12-2011, 10:22 PM | #652 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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Alright, here's my trust list to this point:
100% trust Chief Rum --- scanned good, as far as we know there's no cunning role in the game, so I think this is as good as it gets. Strong trust The Jackal --- Mostly because I can't believe any wolf would waste the resources he did on the BG and seer, when he otherwise could've given his group a huge starting advantage. Darth Vilus --- Scanned by Jackal as good, if a then b. Mild / Moderate trust hoopsguy --- His explanation for what happened with the voting makes sense. Even though we haven't seen evidence of a roled villlager yet, the rules state it might be possible, and I haven't seen a game where rules saying 'might have roles' ends up meaning 'nope, just kidding'. I'm not willing to bet the farm here, but I have somewhat more trust than other players to this point. Neutral Everyone else |
02-12-2011, 10:43 PM | #653 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Quote:
With your everyone reveals what they bet strategy has to assume that the person chose to pick the service to see what everyone bet. Perhaps Rum can let everyone know what the other options are to see if the next person would possibly go a different route with that service? I'm sure the other one would have something to do with the next day's bet, like an insider pick. Having your bet switched to whoever is lynched tomorrow, being guaranteed a win. That sort of thing. That would be pretty valuable, imo. Being day two I'd probably choose the reveal still because it might prove to be valuable.. however, after today I'm not seeing that seeing the bet reveals would be all that important except for the reason you mention, if EVERYONE revealed. Find out who's honest and who's not. |
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02-12-2011, 10:49 PM | #654 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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And I'm happy to admit I bet on Darth Valis. I'm sure that's where the majority fell this time around like you mentioned, JAG.
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02-12-2011, 10:54 PM | #655 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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Voting analysis:
Looking at D1: J23 (8) Jackal 117, DaddyTorgo 178, Zinto 196, Danny 224, mauboy 1 230, Lathum 234, PackerFan 236, saldana 257 Lathum (5) Pass 118, mckerney 151, Tyketime 160, cougarfreak 191, Crimson Fox 217 Darth vilus (5) JAG 185, ntndeacon 197, hoopsguy 206, J23 209, Chief 211 Green = fully cleared villager (you can substitute Blue for Chief if you like) Blue = Strongly trust villager So by my guess, we had a trio of villagers on the block for D1 which means it was basically open voting for the wolves. At this point we know the least about those voting for Lathum. And I kick myself for not doing this on D2, but I feel like that's where we should focus looking for wolves because I think there have to be at least 2 in the 5 players there, looking to make money for their side. Villagers want to make money because it helps to find wolves, but the mobsters really need to make money because otherwise they're giving up control of the NK to the other group, who could end up killing one of their members in an NK. There's a reasonable chance that they have made 0 dollars the past couple days with how betting has gone and assuming they started with a total of $3k each (assuming 3 wolves a team) and spent nothing on anything else, that means they're down to a total of $3500...and Jackal presumably made close to that with one day of betting. Day 2: Darth Vilus (6) - Packerfanatic 299, The Jackal 369, tyketime 389, saldana 409, chief rum 452, passacaglia 511 jackal (1) - crimson fox 365 Packerfanatic (3) - mckerney 418, mauboy1 463, zinto 483 Lathum (2) - cougarfreak 419, daddy torgo 465 Daddy Torgo (5) - Lathum 492, ntndeacon 495, hoopsguy 499, darth vilus 504, JAG 508 Voting is a lot more spread out. The only potential wolf we may have had based on my trust levels is DT, who was not a Lathum voter on D1 though he did bet on Lathum. I find it interesting, though not necessarily important, that D1 Lathum voters voted for four of the five different candidates with their five votes. I'm not fully sure what to make of the voting to this point. The people I'm most apt to look at for today as stated would be D1 Lathum voters. I'm not 100% sure which at this point. |
02-12-2011, 10:55 PM | #656 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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I think I got out all my thoughts. Night all.
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02-12-2011, 11:09 PM | #657 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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I'm willing to bet a lot of fake money that there are MULTIPLE mafia bets on Lathum that first night. They saw that Lathum said what he said and wanted to cash in early because they knew he wasn't a wolf. What harm could be done by betting on him? Well, the bets were revealed and now they've been outed possibly.
Passacaglia Tyketime Mckerney DaddyTorgo Zinto Crimson Fox Unless some other good stuff comes out today I'm willing to put my vote towards any one of these six. Five of the six voted for him (zinto the only one not to and never had his vote on Lathum once, but he did vote for J23, who ended up going home). |
02-12-2011, 11:14 PM | #658 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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And to add a little more info to the first day betting.. Not one person who's been killed so far bet on Lathum that first day, so my thinking is that their mentality's were all pretty much the same.. "he's silly, he could be a wolf, but probably not, I'm not going to be voting him anyway so I'm not going to bet him." But the wolves mentality's could have been, "Ooh, easy target for us, everyone will vote him, we know he's not a wolf, money in the bank, lets bet on him..."
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02-12-2011, 11:19 PM | #659 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Quote:
1st day votes again to refresh... |
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02-12-2011, 11:27 PM | #660 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Quote:
Something just sounds wolfy about this post. Not saying I'm going to start gung-ho on voting Pass but.. just throwing it out there. At some point something is going to need to be said. |
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02-12-2011, 11:45 PM | #661 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Okay, I am done too since it is just me talking on a Saturday night.. lol.. apparently I am the only one not out.
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02-12-2011, 11:57 PM | #662 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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02-13-2011, 03:59 AM | #663 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: SoCal
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These would be the 3 i would look at next. They fall in line with JAG's and Mauboy's thinking as well
__________________
"Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise |
02-13-2011, 07:08 AM | #664 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
Let me know when you've figured out what sounds wolfy about that post, so I can tell you why you're wrong! |
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02-13-2011, 07:14 AM | #665 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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In for a minute, wanted to share some info from last night.
I won the Showgirl service, and that provides info on how much money someone has. I selected to use that service on Passacaglia, who had $1,000 dollars on him. In terms of who I bet on, I missed that for Day 2 because I'm dumb and didn't clearly process the rules but put in Day 3 vote for Darth. I won't be trying to cash that check today with news that he has been scanned good. |
02-13-2011, 07:16 AM | #666 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Also, I realize that this sounds self-serving, but looking at the Day 2 voting information that JAG provided .... there was no reason for wolves to do any kind of late end-run on DT if all the other candidates were good. So that makes me feel pretty good about the people who joined me in that movement. Especially using the color chart that we have now showing Lathum + Darth on that list alongside me. So I probably won't be going with anyone on that list for my vote today.
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02-13-2011, 07:27 AM | #667 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
That checks with my figured. Day 1 I forgot to bid on anything, and Day 2 I bid 10 on everything, and 100 on Knuckles (with the intent of no kill if I won it). None of those bids were winners. |
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02-13-2011, 07:28 AM | #668 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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It's a shame you had to waste the service on me though, hoops -- you could have just asked me. As far as I know, I'm the only one being open about this stuff.
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02-13-2011, 07:51 AM | #669 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Heh - I'm sure there are other explanations but you not winning anything is the simplest.
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02-13-2011, 07:57 AM | #670 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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I'm comfortable with going with the plan that JAG has outlined as a way to see if we have honest or untruthful people announcing; and that depends on whoever won the service actually chose that part of the service.
Day 2 Bets so far: mauboy - Darth hoopsguy - did not vote |
02-13-2011, 08:01 AM | #671 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
We're not completely sure that Darth is good, though (sorry, The Jackal). |
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02-13-2011, 08:01 AM | #672 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Mau, I said this during Day 2, but my bet then was Lathum.
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02-13-2011, 09:49 AM | #673 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Quote:
Well, not 100%, I understand. But there's no way i waste 4000$ if I'm a wolf in that situation. I probably way overbid on Tank but I wanted to make sure I got at least one scan in, and got rid of my money so as to not give them any bonuses. Certainly don't want to clear Darth forever, but no reason to push him today. My bet yesterday was DV, seemed a logical choice. |
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02-13-2011, 09:53 AM | #674 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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I didn't bet on him for today, but I'm going to take a hard look at CrimsonFox's posts and votes. Something has rubbed me as off by him.
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02-13-2011, 09:55 AM | #675 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Knowing that we were villager-villager-villager (I know that I and DV are good, so that's where I'm getting that) on day one shows us that wolf votes were likely very spread out, and could have been placed at virtually anytime. I want to go find Chief's post and repost it here near mau's repost of JAG's day 1.
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02-13-2011, 09:56 AM | #676 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Okay:
Quote:
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02-13-2011, 10:05 AM | #677 | ||
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Quote:
Could be either a villager or wolf trying to get info, certainly. Addendum to previous comment when PF said it was probably deliberate. Somewhat flyby vote, though day 1 Quote:
Response to me saying the seer should reveal their targets since it's a revolving role. Flyby vote after Chief revealed I'd won the day 1 bet |
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02-13-2011, 10:07 AM | #678 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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And that is the total of his comments, the lowest of any player still in the game. Flying very under the radar, fits the bet on/voted for Lathum day 1 mechanic. This is not set in stone, but I'm looking here for the moment:
VOTE CRIMSONFOX |
02-13-2011, 10:40 AM | #679 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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FYI, I bet on Crimson Fox for today and Chief Rum yesterday. I figured we'd have enough villager coverage on DV to make up for the three wolves that would've bet him had he turned out to be a wolf and wanted to bet on a Lathum voter. I don't know that I find him more or less tempting a target than other Lathum voters though.
I would propose laying off Pass for today and hopefully we can get a seer scan of him tonight. For one, if he's good and hoops is telling the truth, he has some money that can help the village. For two, if he ends up being a wolf, then hoops looks somewhat more suspicious to me (combo of betting him on D1, possibly trying to mitigate an unlucky D1 lynch of a fellow wolf) and DT would definitely look more suspicious since Pass believed he was saving him with last night's vote. On the other hand, if Pass is cleared (and I've read him as good since the beginning for what it's worth) would make me feel better about hoops, because it would appear he's revealing accurate information that he otherwise shouldn't be able to get from a villager. A scan there seems to provide a lot of value, assuming we can trust the person who provides it, which is of course the 64k question. |
02-13-2011, 11:12 AM | #680 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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huh...
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02-13-2011, 11:23 AM | #681 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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02-13-2011, 11:38 AM | #682 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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just not sure i agree with JAGs reveal of today's bet.
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02-13-2011, 11:43 AM | #683 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jan 2011
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Alright if we are putting out our betting info here it goes. On day 2 I voted for Saldana, thinking that his vote on Lathum might put some suspicion on him. For day 3 I voted Darth. A lot of people where upset with the fact he didn't get lynched so I thought there might be a backlash on him.
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02-13-2011, 11:53 AM | #684 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Okay, we need to figure out what we're doing here.. Are we revealing the previous days bets or bets made previous and the ones you made for the current day? Just not seeing the major benefit of revealing the same day votes as it will put targets on villagers for the mafia.
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02-13-2011, 11:55 AM | #685 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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There definitely needs to be a measure of agreement in the thread before everyone starts revealing their bets, otherwise this will get fairly chaotic, which is usually bad for the village.
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02-13-2011, 11:56 AM | #686 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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I haven't made up my mind on the topic, though I understand what JAG is driving at. Still weighing the positives and negatives, but some discussion on the topic would be good, especially since we have a doubly long day phase.
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02-13-2011, 12:01 PM | #687 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
Sure, I can give you my thoughts on his "laying off Pass" ideas. |
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02-13-2011, 01:30 PM | #688 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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I have a suggestion for the villager in the game. Catch a wolf!
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02-13-2011, 02:12 PM | #689 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Vote Mckerney
For the third day in a row I'm going Mckerney. This time he's in the group of people I'd like to have a vote on so it will probably stay on him or perhaps Crimson or another one on the list.. But this is where I'm starting out again. |
02-13-2011, 03:49 PM | #690 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jan 2011
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02-13-2011, 04:49 PM | #691 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Out of Grad School Hell :)
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I'll be the first to admit, I was wrong on Lathum, and that's who I bet on. I still thought his first day was pretty wacky. I'm not sure where to go now. When is the next vote deadline, is it Monday at 9?
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02-13-2011, 04:49 PM | #692 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Out of Grad School Hell :)
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Sorry, I edited, I added that was who I bet on, I forgot that.
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02-13-2011, 05:54 PM | #693 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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I guess most of the conversation is going to take place tomorrow. I'm definitely going to be out around the deadline, since it's valentine's day. Should be around until 5 or so though.
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02-13-2011, 05:55 PM | #694 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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I'll say that I don't mind mckerney as a candidate either. But we've only had a few people comment today so we'll see what happens.
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02-13-2011, 06:21 PM | #695 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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I just remembered that I will be out quite a bit as well tomorrow evening with a work function. Crud. I should still have access on my phone to keep up with conversations though.
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02-13-2011, 06:39 PM | #696 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Yep, I expect tomorrow night may be a tough day for conversation relative to most weekdays due to Valentine's Day. But we're normally dead on weekends, so I'm not surprised with the lack of posts. People have been conditioned to stay away over weekends, I guess.
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02-13-2011, 07:51 PM | #697 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I forgot about the Valentine's issue, since my wife is actually going to be away. Funny, I think the Rome or Money game happened on Valentine's too, I was just reading that.
I'm open to changing up the deadline if need be, though at least people have had the weekend to play also. |
02-13-2011, 07:51 PM | #698 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Vote count as of post 697 (check me on this as I had a lot to cruise through)
mckerney (1) - mauboy1 689 crimson fox (1) - The jackal 678 |
02-13-2011, 08:26 PM | #699 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: SoCal
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I'll probably vote mckerney if no one better pops up, he is on my list after all. Jackal is still there too of course. I'll be out pretty much all day tomorrow, i have school from 8-11 and then work from 12-9, doesn't leave a whole lot of room for me to play
__________________
"Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise |
02-13-2011, 08:51 PM | #700 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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I just have to give Kudos to Autumn. This game has renewed my love for WW and hopefully some of the new blood sticks around. I am literally chomping at the bit for the next game.
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