2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Atocep]

The Trump family is now calling on GOP-controlled state legislatures to nullify the actual vote and push for Trump electors. This is a dangerous moment. pic.twitter.com/aaEuRCiudk

— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) November 5, 2020

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I know MSM is reporting that mail-in favors Biden. Article in ajc.com said all military overseas ballots (Fulton) have not yet been counted. I would assume those go for Trump. Wonder if that is same situation for the other battleground states?

Well...

Trump’s popularity slips in latest Military Times poll — and more troops say they’ll vote for Biden

Among active-duty service members surveyed in the poll, 41 percent said they would vote for Biden, the Democratic nominee, if the election was held today. Only 37 percent said they plan to vote to re-elect Trump.

Another 13 percent said they plan to vote for a third-party candidate, and nearly 9 percent said they plan on skipping the election altogether. About 40 percent of troops surveyed identified as Republican or Libertarian, 16 percent Democrats, and 44 percent independent or another party.

Now I will state upfront that the Military Times papers has been criticized in the past for a bit too liberal for some members of the military. So grain of salt and all that jazz.

[wustin]

Trump's lawsuit in PA and GA for stopping votes got thrown out. If you include NC back in October that includes 3 failed attempts.

For the party that upholds the constitution for what it says, they're a bunch of hypocrites.

[stevew]

overseas military ballots mean that those people live in fulton county. I would assume that they have a similar demographic to the existing residents of that county and would vote with a slightly more Trump tilt.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by whomario

But hasn't a lot of this to do with them being heavily outdated in at least a sizable number of questions/areas ? This rings to me similar to the "let's interpret 200+ year old documents based on what they actually wanted" (never mind it being a "want" for an utterly different time) school of thought re: Law.

There's a process for that. We've used it almost 30 times now to amend the constitution. We can use it again anytime we feel like it.

Beyond that though, probably best to use the other thread. There's a lot more going on here than constitutional issues.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by molson

The one Predicit line that's really moving is the one about when we'll get a winner. (Not today!)

It has started to move back towards Nov 5, I think based on the news that PA said they will be done today.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

That's nothing. When I was 11 I created a league using a Talking Football game that was shaped like a stadium. It only came with cards for both all-pro teams, but I bought a fantasy football book and did my own fantasy draft to create 8 new teams. Of course I kept stats in a notebook! I'm 39 and still not married.

Awesome! That actually sounds like a lot of fun to me and a talking football shaped stadium seems like something I missed out on. Don't kick yourself too hard, you are still young enough to create even more leagues!

[larrymcg421]

When I was in junior high, I created a dice chart football game with primitive management aspects and had a league that friends participated in.

[bhlloy]

I did the same with a pack of cards and created a hockey league, and not even in the same country as the people who have chimed in so far. FOFC definitely is a funny, nerdy community, but I guess it makes sense when you think of what brought us all here.

[Atocep]

It can be really frustrating talking people on both sides that don't follow elections through this.

I've had to explain how Fox and others can call states with very few votes coming in. I've had to explain there's a difference between a network calling a state and an official total, which can take weeks. I've had to explain that, yes, republican votes get counted in Washington.

My wife's friend thought based on the Trump bubble of Puyallup that we live in that Trump could win the state and Inslee was absolutely losing to Culp. When the state was called for Biden shortly after polls closed and Inslee won as well she just went down the conspiracy rabbit hole that she still hasn't gotten out of. Michigan's official website showed Trump still ahead 2 points so everyone else is just making votes up. Sharpies are getting votes canceled in Arizona. All of it.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The Trump family is now calling on GOP-controlled state legislatures to nullify the actual vote and push for Trump electors. This is a dangerous moment. pic.twitter.com/aaEuRCiudk
— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) November 5, 2020

I think this is why Biden winning more than a squeaker will help. If just doing monkey business with a couple of faithless electors would switch it from 270 Biden to 270 Trump, there's a much greater chance of taking the risk versus the punishment. But if Biden puts Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona all to bed and pushes past 300, it seems really unlikely.

SI

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

When I was in junior high, I created a dice chart football game with primitive management aspects and had a league that friends participated in.

Sweet! Don't get me wrong, I love how we can do this on our computers, but, something about doing it like that, with actual dice adds another aspect of playing the game that I really enjoy. I can't quite put my finger on what is exactly though, could be nostalgia, could be something else.

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I did the same with a pack of cards and created a hockey league, and not even in the same country as the people who have chimed in so far. FOFC definitely is a funny, nerdy community, but I guess it makes sense when you think of what brought us all here.

That is a very good point. It is pretty much what all/most of us came here for. Nerds can be a lot of fun to be around.

[ISiddiqui]

From 538:

Another small batch of Pennsylvania ballots has been reported in Lehigh County (home of Allentown), and once again Biden is winning enough of them to possibly take the lead in the Keystone State. Around 4,500 ballots came in there, and Biden won close to 4 in 5 of these newly reported votes. Trump’s lead is now 1.7 points, 50.2 percent to 48.5 percent, or about 111,000 votes.

I will note that Lehigh County is actually currently for Trump 49.6-49.2, showing that the mail in votes even in currently red counties looks to be EXCEEDINGLY blue.

[albionmoonlight]

It's what everyone said going in. Dems voted by mail. GOP didn't.

[Butter]

I think Trumps lead in PA has been going down about 1000 per hour. At this rate Biden should take the lead by Inauguration Day

[Butter]

Biden up to -1200 betting odds, implied probability of 92%

[Ksyrup]

Had a frustrating text exchange with my brother. He texts about the whole state legislature thing like it was a surprise, and I'm like, dude, Trump made this a point in his rallies! He TOLD US he was going to claim fraud, take it to the SC, and he expects his 3 new justices to give him the election. Trump is too stupid to understand the details (faithless electors, state legislature intervention, etc.), he just knows - fraud/rigged, get me to the SC, those 3 owe me for setting them up for life. This is just another riff on the way he conducts business.

I then went off on him that this is why I am so frustrated with people voting for tax breaks and other self-interests and "holding their noses" to vote Trump when the real choice was between authoritarianism or a few more "socialist" programs but regaining some semblance of the rule of law.

He said he doesn't think the SC will do that, that they understand the importance. I was like, I don't want it to get to that point to find out if that's true or not. This is why he needed to be decisively beaten, so we didn't have to gamble on losing our country.

I'm just exhausted at this point. Frustrated and effing tired of this BS.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Sweet! Don't get me wrong, I love how we can do this on our computers, but, something about doing it like that, with actual dice adds another aspect of playing the game that I really enjoy. I can't quite put my finger on what is exactly though, could be nostalgia, could be something else.

For me, it's the immersion and the imagination that comes into play with manually tracking everything. With a computer, I can run a season very quickly and look at the stats. With cards, I have to play every game which allows me to get very familiar with the teams.

EDIT: This reminded me of something. One of my favorite catchers when I was younger was Alan Ashby. Was it because he was a star or made clutch plays? Nope, it was because the baseball card (this one) I had of him had a catcher's mitt that I could hit when we played baseball with the cards and a baseball made up of aluminum foil. I spent plenty of time playing baseball like that with friends and alone. Great way to pass a Saturday morning while watching cartoons, waiting on everyone to come outside.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Had a frustrating text exchange with my brother. He texts about the whole state legislature thing like it was a surprise, and I'm like, dude, Trump made this a point in his rallies! He TOLD US he was going to claim fraud, take it to the SC, and he expects his 3 new justices to give him the election. Trump is too stupid to understand the details (faithless electors, state legislature intervention, etc.), he just knows - fraud/rigged, get me to the SC, those 3 owe me for setting them up for life. This is just another riff on the way he conducts business.

I then went off on him that this is why I am so frustrated with people voting for tax breaks and other self-interests and "holding their noses" to vote Trump when the real choice was between authoritarianism or a few more "socialist" programs but regaining some semblance of the rule of law.

He said he doesn't think the SC will do that, that they understand the importance. I was like, I don't want it to get to that point to find out if that's true or not. This is why he needed to be decisively beaten, so we didn't have to gamble on losing our country.

I'm just exhausted at this point. Frustrated and effing tired of this BS.

My wife has been banging her head against the wall over similar shit with the friend of hers I referenced above. She broke down the election issue by issue with her and found that there's very few issues that she agrees with Trump on, can't stand his bevavior, but what it basically comes down to is they hunt, fish, camp and live a more conservative lifestyle and believe Dems give too many government handouts. She also believes the electoral college should be abolished (I think because she thought Trump would win the popular vote) but thought in the event of a Trump loss he and his supporters would accept the loss.

[Swaggs]

I've enjoyed all the "small/limited government" folks that are now screaming about needing federal government involved in elections (but particularly in MI/WI/PA where leads have shrunk with the mail ins). Apparently they missed the last four years when everyone but the GOP were complaining about election security and wanted increased funding and more standardized procedures/equipment.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by rjolley

For me, it's the immersion and the imagination that comes into play with manually tracking everything. With a computer, I can run a season very quickly and look at the stats. With cards, I have to play every game which allows me to get very familiar with the teams.

Ah yes, the immersion and imagination for sure! So many good memories doing very similar stuff. It feels less 'personal', for the lack of a better word, when done on a computer. Probably because, like you said, you can do things really fast on them.

Edit: Alan Ashby! Man I miss those Astros uniforms. It's those little things, like because of his mitt or the way the artwork looks for a board game that can really add to the whole experience.

[Ksyrup]

I still remember stats from the 1982 season thanks to Strat-O-Matic. Tim Lollar went 16-9 with a 3.13 ERA. I only know that 35 years later because of the cards.

[ISiddiqui]

Georgia SOS office reporting 47k absentees still to be counted.

[Ksyrup]

STOP THE COUNT! ��#BBN pic.twitter.com/dNacPLYqqf

— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) November 5, 2020

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I still remember stats from the 1982 season thanks to Strat-O-Matic. Tim Lollar went 16-9 with a 3.13 ERA. I only know that 35 years later because of the cards.

Oh man that is great! Funny how things like that just stick with us. Speaking of the 82 Padres...I remember that season very distinctively as that was the year that seemed like every hit that Terry Kennedy got, was a double. My dad took me to a lot of Padres games that summer.

[Ksyrup]

I played out the entire 1982 Phillies season, complete with my own hand-written stats. I had them broken down by month, LH/RH splits, etc. It was crazy. I wish I still had that notebook. I remember Ed Farmer throwing 9 no-hit innings in relief in a 15 inning game and Schmidt hitting 5 HRs in 1 game.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I played out the entire 1982 Phillies season, complete with my own hand-written stats. I had them broken down by month, LH/RH splits, etc. It was crazy. I wish I still had that notebook. I remember Ed Farmer throwing 9 no-hit innings in relief in a 15 inning game and Schmidt hitting 5 HRs in 1 game.

Now that is dedication right there. I never broke mine down like that. I think the only extra stat I made sure to keep track of was game winning RBI. When the Stat disc came out though, it tracked them for me. That is one heck of a relief appearance right there! Player of the week...and then Michael Jack Schmidt had something to say about it.

[Lathum]

Wonder if Trump had an aneurism or stroke and is dead. This has to have him worked up. Kushner manning the Twitter account. The fact he hasn't made an appearance in 2 days is extremely off brand for him.

[larrymcg421]

Can't even win a 2nd term. Lost to Sleepy Joe and Krazy Kamala. Sad!

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Wonder if Trump had an aneurism or stroke and is dead. This has to have him worked up. Kushner manning the Twitter account. The fact he hasn't made an appearance in 2 days is extremely off brand for him.

He probably cried himself to sleep in a big pile of Chick-fil-A and Wendy's wrappers, and now he's softly repeating "rigged" as he dreams of an endless Twitter scroll about how he lost bigly.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by timmynausea

He probably cried himself to sleep in a big pile of Chick-fil-A and Wendy's wrappers, and now he's softly repeating "rigged" as he dreams of an endless Twitter scroll about how he lost bigly.

LEAVE CHICK-FIL-A OUT OF THIS!

[spleen1015]

Besides, he likes McDonald's.

[Butter]

PA says they're down to 320k left to count and Trump is still up 100k. So at what point is this going to break hard for Biden?

[sabotai]

The map on ABC News just updated. Trump's lead in PA is down to 97,900.

Edit: The update added 4,204 votes for Trump and 14,896 for Biden

Double Edit: If there are 320k left to count, the those break 78% for Biden the way the last update did, that would be ~250k for Biden, ~70k for Trump, a difference of ~180k

[henry296]

Based on 320k outstanding Biden needs 66% to the lead. 210 for Biden vs. 110 for Trump.

[Ksyrup]

This has to be good news for Biden.

There are approximately 190k ballots left to be counted in Nevada. Of this total, 90% are from Clark County. More details in the @NVSOS statement that can be found here: https://t.co/9o9zpp8okt.

— Nevada Elections (@NVElect) November 5, 2020

[JediKooter]

So if trump does indeed lose, will we see massive uptick in resignations or firings or both, from his administration?

[Ksyrup]

NBC is reporting Esper has drafted a resignation letter.

[spleen1015]

I'd bet a lot of money Fauci gets fired and gets blamed for Trump losing.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by henry296

Based on 320k outstanding Biden needs 66% to the lead. 210 for Biden vs. 110 for Trump.

10 minutes later it says 340k left to count.

Solid stuff, PA website

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I'd bet a lot of money Fauci gets fired and gets blamed for Trump losing.

Trump himself can't really fire him. Exactly how they could legally go about firing Fauci is up in the air since Trump's executive order is being challenged but it's likely if he were fired and was willing to fight it he'd win.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I'd bet a lot of money Fauci gets fired and gets blamed for Trump losing.

At which point Biden tells him to take a vacation or get a temp job discussing Covid on TV until January where he comes back

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

NBC is reporting Esper has drafted a resignation letter.

Damn. Body isn't even cold, let alone dead yet and it has started.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I'd bet a lot of money Fauci gets fired and gets blamed for Trump losing.

Good short Biden speech.

I would love it if Fauci showed up beside Biden tomorrow (or whenever) if PA is declared tonight, tomorrow morning.

(Yeah, I'd invite Birx also)

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Damn. Body isn't even cold, let alone dead yet and it has started.

Speculation is he's been asked to do something he won't do and wants to publicly making it clear he wanted no part of it. But it could just be "it's over, I'm out."

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by bronconick

At which point Biden tells him to take a vacation or get a temp job discussing Covid on TV until January where he comes back

He'd be immediately appointed to Biden's COVID transition team.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

So if trump does indeed lose, will we see massive uptick in resignations or firings or both, from his administration?

I think we're about to see lots of books from "patriots" who saw chaos in the White House and tried to stop it from within.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Speculation is he's been asked to do something he won't do and wants to publicly making it clear he wanted no part of it. But it could just be "it's over, I'm out."

Gotcha. Well, given past trump behavior, I wouldn't be surprised if was about something he was asked to do. Also can't blame him for wanting to get out as soon as possible.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I think we're about to see lots of books from "patriots" who saw chaos in the White House and tried to stop it from within.

I still feel out of spite Trump will fire the lot of them and leave the government non-functional until the transition, at which time McConnell will refuse to accept any cabinet nominations.

Complete scorched Earth. Then Trump will go about the country stating that the government is ineffective because he's not in charge, and claim that he was stolen as rightful god appointed King of America.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Speculation is he's been asked to do something he won't do and wants to publicly making it clear he wanted no part of it. But it could just be "it's over, I'm out."

I would like to see more people like Esper resign because of the BS Trump does, like undermining American democracy.