Obama versus McCain (versus the rest)

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

I think the truth is somewhere between the Obama campaign's wish of tens of thousands and "several hundred".

No, they actually released the numbers earlier this week. The number that actually registered and voted was less than 1,000 statewide. I'll try to track down the stats and link them if I can.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

From the Liberty U. story:

So, I guess she doesn't watch the polls too carefully, eh?

Even better than that is that the whole page when I got it is brought to you by the new movie "Milk". Awesome.

While I understand that North Carolina is currently a toss up state according to some polling data, I'd be pretty shocked if it actually did land in the Democrat column on election day. The demographics in that state are decidedly against Obama.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Blaah, pre-screened questions with no possibility of followup by the questioner or Brokaw.

Brokaw has said that he didn't agree to that. And he kind of holds the cards there. If he does ask a followup, then the candidate will have to answer it. A candidate would lose major points for saying "you are not allowed follow-up questions."

I do, however, agree that this will be a sterile debate overall. They are legislating where the candidates can walk on the stage for goodness sake.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

While I understand that North Carolina is currently a toss up state according to some polling data, I'd be pretty shocked if it actually did land in the Democrat column on election day. The demographics in that state are decidedly against Obama.

I'd be surprised too, but better safe than sorry, right? Seems a bit naive and presumptive in any case. I wouldn't change my registration place if I were for Obama either. All states give you the chance to cast an absentee ballot... just get one of those and vote in your home state.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

No, they actually released the numbers earlier this week. The number that actually registered and voted was less than 1,000 statewide. I'll try to track down the stats and link them if I can.

I thought the AP story I read was 4-5,000. But I didn't feel like linking to it, because that involves work.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

While I understand that North Carolina is currently a toss up state according to some polling data, I'd be pretty shocked if it actually did land in the Democrat column on election day. The demographics in that state are decidedly against Obama.

Living here, I agree with you. While I live in the Triangle, it is but a dot of blue in an ocean of red. NASCAR was started here for goodness sake.

However, I think that the events of the last week might actually make things close. Charlotte is the second largest banking center in the country (behind NYC). And Wachovia was kind of the flagship bank of the state. Banking is the business in Charlotte--it's where Wall Street actually meets Main Street. If McCain cannot shake the image that he is more responsible for the banking crisis than Obama is, it could sink him here. Of course, if McCain cannot turn the banking crisis meme around, he's lost anyway, so it might not be that NC is sure to go red so much as NC is not the state that will tip the balance for Obama.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by molson

I think making election day a federal holiday would kill turnout.

I for one would never vote again (expect possibly by absentee ballot).

You have 13-hours to vote for god's sake. If there's a problem with lines, the answer is more widespread electronic voting technology. Or more states could vote-by-mail like they do in Oregon.

I don't get your first two conclusions.

Sure, I'd love to see more actual voting machines in use (which would drastically reduce my wait), but I'd love to hear how it would kill turn out and why you'd never vote again.

[molson]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I don't get your first two conclusions.

Sure, I'd love to see more actual voting machines in use (which would drastically reduce my wait), but I'd love to hear how it would kill turn out and why you'd never vote again.

I would definitely make a four-day weekend out of it and be out of town.

[larrymcg421]

Solution: Polling booths at the airport.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Solution: Polling booths at the airport.

That wouldn't work in Vegas. Senior citizens would end up sitting in front of a slot machine pulling the slot arm thinking they were at a voting machine.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

While I understand that North Carolina is currently a toss up state according to some polling data, I'd be pretty shocked if it actually did land in the Democrat column on election day. The demographics in that state are decidedly against Obama.

Yeah, but it also depends on where the candidates spend their resources. Obama is making a major push in NC. Right now, the electoral map does not look good for McCain. He's going to have to push hard in Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia and may not have the luxury of defending North Carolina as vigorously as he wants. I could see a scenario where McCain fights so hard in Virginia that he takes it, but ends up losing NC at the same time.

[SirFozzie]

Looks like PA may be out of McCain's reach now. New SurveyUSA Poll puts the gap at 15 points.

SurveyUSA Election Poll #14507

Obama 55-40 McCain

Mason-Dixon poll in Florida keeps the Obama lead within the margin of error at 2 points: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/se...ason-Dixon.pdf

And Minnesota has gone from an average of 4 points ahead (pre bailout signing/pre VP Debate) to 10.5 points ahead in the RCP Average... A new poll from the Minnesota Public Radio/University of MN - Humphrey Institute puts the gap at 14 points (54-40)

http://www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/cspg/..._President.pdf

That narrows McCain's path to victory (he absolutely has to have Florida, no matter what, but that's within the margin of error)

It's 3rd and 31 deep in their own end, McCain can't win the election tonight, he CAN lose it by throwing a pick (he's one gaffe away from being pretty much out of it), but he can set up a more makeable fourth down (the final debate) if he makes the play here. (Enough football references?)

[larrymcg421]

I thinkt he most apt football metaphor is that McCain is losing the field position battle. The battleground right now is being fought on McCain's side of the field (red states). McCain is either losing or close in FL, OH, NC, VA, CO, IN, MO, and NV. He can't afford to lose any of these states.

[albionmoonlight]

That's a big deal--the number of states that McCain has to defend. Let's give Obama Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico. Then let's say that McCain is a 90% favorite in all of the states that you mention (probably a bit generous b/c Obama is leading in most of them). McCain still has a < 50% chance of winning all of those states (90%^8).

McCain needs to shrink the map.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Arles

I would say that neither McCain or Obama's health care plans stand a snow-ball's chance in the nether region of making it through congress. They're nice campaign ploys, but utterly meaningless when choosing the next president. The health care system has its hands in way too many congressmen for either plan to pass.

Also, as an aside, do people really think companies will stop providing health insurance? I thought this plan was just to cover those who currently lack coverage. Any major/medium company that pulls insurance will be killing themselves as no quality people would work there.

I didn't say major. I said small to medium (which are already dropping/reducing health plans. This will just increase it).

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

I also wonder about the McCain campaign's lack of message discipline. Go negative, fine. Pull out of Michigan, fine. But telling people that you are going negative in order to change the subject? And announcing that you are pulling out of Michigan?

Why do those things? It just makes your moves seem more calculated.

McCain can still win this, but I feel like we are watching a team down in the 4th quarter and you look at the bench and all of the players are just sitting there and not looking at each other and the coach has gone into Art Shell mode. It does not feel like you are watching the QB go up and down the bench talking to the O-Line to keep them pumped up.

Basically, I wonder if there is more turmoil behind the scenes than we are seeing (as turned out to be the case in Clinton's campaign).

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Agreed.



Disagreed. I've had a much better experience with private coverage (except for cost) than I ever had with any employer group plan. And I mean by such a wide margin that it isn't even close.

From a cost standpoint I wouldn't mind going back to some sort of group, but from a service standpoint we've done an exponentially better job selecting the right coverage for us than any employer ever did.

I have had the exact opposite experience. I have a feeling the reason was I can't afford the level of insurance that you most likely can. I found it near impossible to even find a company that will insure me (boarder-line diabetic), and the ones who would wanted about $1000 a month. Before the diabetes and when I was younger, I had private insurance with a very highly thought of company. My wife got pregnant with my first child, they tried to drop us. My agent fought to keep us covered, and then they tried to deny claims. In the end, they paid way less than they should, we paid way more, and the hospital just wrote off a good bit of it.

[Young Drachma]

Bingo cards for tonight!

Barack Obama Bingo [Random!]

John McCain Bingo [Random!]

[Mac Howard]

No one watching the debate?

[Flasch186]

sweet bingo!!

[Mac Howard]

Still time to get a beer

[Young Drachma]

You'd think they would get better chairs.

McCain looked pretty stiff when he walked out. Not that it matters. Party has started. Even though this format is cardboard, it's still more interesting than watching some moderator asking questions.

[Young Drachma]

Obama wants to do everything short of bringing back the WPA.

[Young Drachma]

Government bailout of home mortgage debt. Big gub'ment GOP ftl.

[Young Drachma]

Seems tonight, Obama wants to contrast the differences unlike the last debate where he kept saying "I agree with Senator McCain" over and over again. But it seems to me like he's almost too defensive and acting like he's on the stump.

McCain looks nervous, but is coming off far more natural so far.

[SirFozzie]

I do like that McCain is being more specific then Obama

[Mac Howard]

Look at the smile on Obam'as face as McCain speaks.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

I do like that McCain is being more specific then McCain

Come again?

[SirFozzie]

Yup.. McCain goes sharply negative on the Freddie/Fannie.. blaming Obama's "Cronies".. not sure that'll work.. Obama's been in the Senate.. two years? How many years have McCain been in there?

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Come again?

Fixed it, sorry.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Fixed it, sorry.

No prob...just busting your stones.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

No prob...just busting your stones.

That's ok. You probably won't get me for the full debate this time, I get to go home soon

[Young Drachma]

McCain's new mortgage buying plan sounds like Hillary's gas tax holiday.

[DaddyTorgo]

wow - that theresa finch lady could barely read her own question. and it wasn't even difficult

[Young Drachma]

McCain can't do the "I feel your pain" thing. Throwing jabs that don't address the question are not a knock out blow, either.

[SirFozzie]

Ah... McCain says you can trust him because he trashes his own party often, and Obama can't be trusted because he never repudiates his own party... wait.. what???

[Mac Howard]

McCain's getting micro-economics again

[Young Drachma]

Wow. If this is McCain strength....

[mauchow]

Man, McCain looks really old sometimes..he always looks old though.

[King of New York]

Is there some reason that the cameras keep showing Obama from behind?

[King of New York]

Obama started slow and awkward, but seems to be warming up a bit.

[Mac Howard]

Originally Posted by King of New York

Is there some reason that the cameras keep showing Obama from behind?

He's walking into the future

[SirFozzie]

Ooooo.. Obama struck a good shot there, by suggesting we get rid of the $4 billion in tax breaks for the Oil Companies.

[King of New York]

Q: What sacrifices will you ask of the American people?
McCain: I will cut earmarks and rein in goivernment spending.

Nice

[Young Drachma]

McCain doesn't look strong so far. I'm guessing FOX News will prove me wrong. But...I just think he's just rehashing talking points, spending too much time on details that won't resonate with people.

With the occasional jab at Barry. Maybe it'll be like the last debate when he gets stronger halfway through.


"We're not rifle shots here. We're Americans!"

[King of New York]

Originally Posted by Mac Howard

He's walking into the future

LOL

[King of New York]

Originally Posted by King of New York

Q: What sacrifices will you ask of the American people?
McCain: I will cut earmarks and rein in goivernment spending.

Nice

And Obama goes with energy independence, while reminding Americans of George Bush's admonition that everyone go shopping following 9/11. Point: Obama.

[adubroff]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Man, McCain looks really old sometimes..he always looks old though.

He's one pen short of a Bob Dole impression.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Ooooo.. Obama struck a good shot there, by suggesting we get rid of the $4 billion in tax breaks for the Oil Companies.

I have a feeling that if that happens...we'll be the ones paying the price at the pump.

[King of New York]

McCain goes with the "jello to the wall" jab. That was effective maybe the first twenty times I ever heard it used.