Big 10 Expansion Thread -Big Ten ready for a playoff .. finally?

[wade moore]

Let's see if I can keep my streak alive.

There is a rumor of a 2pm announcement for ODU to Conference USA.

No strong validity yet, but it's out there.

[wade moore]

FWIW, the source of the rumor:

Twitter

[corbes]

2 for 2.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by corbes

2 for 2.

That means he can't be VCUBBF then.

[Wolfpack]

I think I read in the articles about the ODU jump that the CAA is tyring to continue the "stuff rolls downhill" progression as they look at schools like Davidson and Boston University as potential replacements. There will be a bottom to this at some point, right?

[Thomkal]

Wonder if Coastal Carolina will fill one of those CAA spots now that they are open to moving from the Big South? With VCU and ODU gone though not sure how much of a move up it would be.

[britrock88]

I would think Coastal could still partner nicely with UNC-Wilmington.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by corbes

2 for 2.

Originally Posted by cartman

That means he can't be VCUBBF then.

I lol'd.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Wolfpack

I think I read in the articles about the ODU jump that the CAA is tyring to continue the "stuff rolls downhill" progression as they look at schools like Davidson and Boston University as potential replacements. There will be a bottom to this at some point, right?

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Wonder if Coastal Carolina will fill one of those CAA spots now that they are open to moving from the Big South? With VCU and ODU gone though not sure how much of a move up it would be.

Originally Posted by britrock88

I would think Coastal could still partner nicely with UNC-Wilmington.

I've heard a lot of schools thrown out.

The ones coming up most often are:

Stony Brook
Albany
Davidson
Coastal
UNH (all sports, they are CAA for football already)

Davidson is really mainly brought up by the BBall schools, I'm not sure they'd actually want to leave.

I believe that SB, Albany, and Coastal would all come if asked.


The more I hear, the more I'd be surprised if Stony Brook is not in the CAA by 2014.

Coastal seems like a smart pickup if we don't want UNCW to leave, so I think they're pretty likely. The "problem" with Davidson is football.


So, if I were to take a bet, I'd say the CAA goes for Stony Brook, Albany, and Coastal.

Boston University is not one I've heard thrown around.

[Ksyrup]

Back to football... the SEC and Big12 just agreed to a 5 year deal for their champions to play in a bowl game, starting in 2014. Assuming they aren't in the national championship game/playoff/whatever format that takes.

So, the Big10 and Pac12 have got an agreement to play each other, and now the SEC/Big12 are getting together. Yep, if FSU has any balls, they will bail for the Big12 as quickly as they can. We're headed for that Big 4 Super-Conference thing sooner than most expected.

[Swaggs]

Rumor has it that it will be played at Jerry World.

I wonder what this does to the other BCS bowls (or former BCS bowls after the playoff restructuring).

It sure sounds like they are rapidly heading towards 4 Super Conferences lining up for Sugar/Rose semifinals and then bidding out the championship games (a la the Super Bowl).

It will be interesting to see how things play out in the next few weeks. If the presidents vote to only allow conference champions, does that finally force Notre Dame into a conference?

[cartman]

Surprising that an elite conference like the SEC would pair up with an obviously dying conference in the Big 12.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by cartman

Surprising that an elite conference like the SEC would pair up with an obviously dying conference in the Big 12.

Have to wonder if they know what's up with potential new additions. In any event, choosing an almost-dead league less than a year later as their equal and passing up a pretty stable (albeit not great football conference) adding teams like the ACC can only mean bad things for the ACC. FSU better get out while it can.

[cartman]

Looks like Texas is out to destroy the SEC as well for the conference annihilation trifecta!

[cartman]

I wonder what this means for the Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl, since those were the destinations for the respective conference champions, or had first pick if the champ was in the BCS title game.

[Swaggs]

I'm going to guess it will play out like this:

New Bowl = @ Cowboys Stadium (aka Jerry World) w/ SEC vs B12
Sugar Bowl w/ SEC vs B12 as a National Semifinal
Rose Bowl w/ B10 vs P12 as a National Semifinal
Championship "Bowl" will be bid out, on a rotating basis (a la the Super Bowl)
The New Bowl @ Cowboys Stadium (SEC vs B12), Orange Bowl (ACC vs SEC), Fiesta Bowl (Some combination of B12, B10, and P12), and another bowl that features the Big Ten will comprise the next tier beneath the Semis. Probably some sort of at-large qualifiers in there, too.

[Swaggs]

Dennis Dodd ‏@dennisdoddcbs
Asked if he were ACC or Big East commish, what would he be thinking today, Neinas: "Better get a good bowl."

Hard to imagine that this doesn't nudge Florida State, Clemson, and VPI toward moving.

If VPI can divorce itself from UVA, I think they are a shoo in for the SEC. I think Clemson lands in the Big 12 and Florida State and the SEC will give each other one last, long look (if the SEC cannot get into North Carolina). Will be interesting to see if Georgia Tech, Maryland, and UVA decide to look elsewhere (all would seem to have multiple landing spots).

The ACC can grab UConn and Louisville and have five of the top 10 basketball programs in the country (UNC, Duke, UConn, Syracuse, and Louisville) and still be a viable football conference.

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'm going to guess it will play out like this:

New Bowl = @ Cowboys Stadium (aka Jerry World) w/ SEC vs B12
Sugar Bowl w/ SEC vs B12 as a National Semifinal
Rose Bowl w/ B10 vs P12 as a National Semifinal
Championship "Bowl" will be bid out, on a rotating basis (a la the Super Bowl)
The New Bowl @ Cowboys Stadium (SEC vs B12), Orange Bowl (ACC vs SEC), Fiesta Bowl (Some combination of B12, B10, and P12), and another bowl that features the Big Ten will comprise the next tier beneath the Semis. Probably some sort of at-large qualifiers in there, too.

There aren't nearly enough SEC teams in your semi-finals.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

There aren't nearly enough SEC teams in your semi-finals.

True, but it seems like all the conference commissioners are coming out in favor of the champion-only model (except of the SEC). The contract is supposedly only going to be for 4-years. I wonder if they are doing that to allow all the expansion stuff to shake out and then they will move to a bigger (6- or 8-team) model?

[Toddzilla]

This new bowl is actually great news for the Big East and ACC. Now they can sign an agreement to play each other on Jan 1. That would guarantee that at least one of them would win a major bowl game each year.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'm going to guess it will play out like this:

New Bowl = @ Cowboys Stadium (aka Jerry World) w/ SEC vs B12
Sugar Bowl w/ SEC vs B12 as a National Semifinal

Huh?

[Marmel]

If the end game is 4 power conferences of 16 teams each, and the 4 conferences are Pac, Big10, Big 12 and SEC, where are the 4 new PAC teams coming from?

I hate where college sports, football in particular, is going. It should be more "power" conferences, not less.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Huh?

The "New Bowl" is the one that was announced today. It will place the highest non-semifinalists of the Big 12 and SEC against one another. It has been reported that it will be in Cowboys Stadium (but the officials are saying it is up for bid).

The Sugar Bowl is just my guess as to how things will play out once the new, 4-team championship structure is finalized. Many conference commissioners, outside of the SEC, have indicated they want the four highest conference champs (rather than at-large teams) to be the four semifinalists. I'm guessing one semifinal will be the traditional Rose Bowl and the other will be the Sugar Bowl.

[Toddzilla]

I kind of see where this is all going.

The current conference structure continues to consolidate to where we have the 4 x 16 superconference structure. This lasts a decade or so until in one of the conferences (I'll use the PAC-16 as an example) develops a rift based on some fundamental issue. That conference agrees to split into 2 sub-conferences and then 2 independent conferences totally. One of those 8 team conferences get a TV deal that pays each team more than they got in the 16-team conference. The 4 x 16 structure disrupted, the greedy teams in the other superconferences facilitate the split into 2 8-team conferences. 8 x 8 conferences last a little while and then teams start to jump, creating some teams with 10 teams, some with 12, some stay at 8 -- looking remarkably what it looks like now.

lather, rinse, repeat.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

I kind of see where this is all going.

The current conference structure continues to consolidate to where we have the 4 x 16 superconference structure. This lasts a decade or so until in one of the conferences (I'll use the PAC-16 as an example) develops a rift based on some fundamental issue. That conference agrees to split into 2 sub-conferences and then 2 independent conferences totally. One of those 8 team conferences get a TV deal that pays each team more than they got in the 16-team conference. The 4 x 16 structure disrupted, the greedy teams in the other superconferences facilitate the split into 2 8-team conferences. 8 x 8 conferences last a little while and then teams start to jump, creating some teams with 10 teams, some with 12, some stay at 8 -- looking remarkably what it looks like now.

lather, rinse, repeat.

And of course, it will be all be the fault of Texas.

[Kodos]

Thank goodness Missouri is out there working to save us all and expose the Evil that is the University of Texas!

[bronconick]

Aside from this separating the ACC from the top 4 conference pretty clearly, the other interesting point is that this is currently a bowl matchup without a bowl. IMO, this is the opening salvo at smashing the current bowl committees. If the bowls want this game, it's not going to come with the current "You have to sell these 1,000 hotel rooms and 15,000 tickets for full price to make your money back for this game" guarantees. They may just create the bowl themselves and split the money 50-50.

[Ksyrup]

Yep. Of course, for the teams that lose tons of money going to bowls, they are the 6-6 teams with the "meh" fanbase who won't have any leverage and will be desperately looking for a bowl invite, so my guess is it won't change much for anyone other than the top tiers. Even within the "power conferences." I seriously doubt the SEC is going to use its clout to help UK get to the 8th place SEC bowl game on its terms and not the bowl's terms.

[Ksyrup]

Ha! Great point.

George Schroeder ‏@GeorgeSchroeder
Seem to recall that champions of SEC & Big 12 could easily have met last season to decide it all...but many didn't want it. Hmm.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Yep. Of course, for the teams that lose tons of money going to bowls, they are the 6-6 teams with the "meh" fanbase who won't have any leverage and will be desperately looking for a bowl invite, so my guess is it won't change much for anyone other than the top tiers. Even within the "power conferences." I seriously doubt the SEC is going to use its clout to help UK get to the 8th place SEC bowl game on its terms and not the bowl's terms.

That part's dealt with by the Big Ten proposal to require 7 wins again. Suddenly you have 35 or so bowls but only enough teams for 27-29. Who offers enough $ to get those tie ins first?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

The "New Bowl" is the one that was announced today. It will place the highest non-semifinalists of the Big 12 and SEC against one another. It has been reported that it will be in Cowboys Stadium (but the officials are saying it is up for bid).

The Sugar Bowl is just my guess as to how things will play out once the new, 4-team championship structure is finalized. Many conference commissioners, outside of the SEC, have indicated they want the four highest conference champs (rather than at-large teams) to be the four semifinalists. I'm guessing one semifinal will be the traditional Rose Bowl and the other will be the Sugar Bowl.

Oh, I see. I was just confused, since Ksyrup's post said it was the champions facing off in the new bowl.

[Ksyrup]

Damn, twitter is pretty great right now.

@DanWolken: I'm shocked! Shocked! RT @schadjoe: Big East would be open to an ACC championship challenge

Andy Hutchins ‏@AndyHutchins
Other things the Big East is open to: Seeing other people to help "rekindle things," partnering with MySpace, leaking things to Joe Schad.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Oh, I see. I was just confused, since Ksyrup's post said it was the champions facing off in the new bowl.

They're calling it the champions bowl. Two conferences likely to place their top team in the 4-team playoff. So basically, a champions bowl of the #2 teams from each conference (#3 in the scenario where 2 from one of the conferences is in the 4-team playoff, if that will be possible).

[britrock88]

Or, as I've known it for many years, the Cotton Bowl.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

They're calling it the champions bowl. Two conferences likely to place their top team in the 4-team playoff. So basically, a champions bowl of the #2 teams from each conference (#3 in the scenario where 2 from one of the conferences is in the 4-team playoff, if that will be possible).

Sounds aptly named.

[Swaggs]

Was thinking through scenarios of how (if) this goes down and what UNC does.

They could probably stay and anchor a (football) diminished ACC. I think that the core of North Carolina schools and UVA would probably still be a pretty formidable conference and could still pick off Big East teams.

My initial thought was that they and UVA (along with maybe Maryland and someone else like Duke or Syracuse or Notre Dame or GT) would form a nice extension for the Big Ten footprint, while maintaining the academic integrity and putting the conference in a more emerging population.

The last option I thought of was if they simply decided to be the first team out the door and joined the SEC. That would probably completely screw their rivals. Do Duke and NC State have landing spots outside of the SEC or a Big East/ACC hybrid?

All hypothetical, but UNC to the SEC could have some really interesting ramifications.

[General Mike]

So depressed by all this stuff. I think I'm just gonna give up on watching college football completely. I have better things to do with 12 hours on 14 fall saturdays.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Was thinking through scenarios of how (if) this goes down and what UNC does.

They could probably stay and anchor a (football) diminished ACC. I think that the core of North Carolina schools and UVA would probably still be a pretty formidable conference and could still pick off Big East teams.

My initial thought was that they and UVA (along with maybe Maryland and someone else like Duke or Syracuse or Notre Dame or GT) would form a nice extension for the Big Ten footprint, while maintaining the academic integrity and putting the conference in a more emerging population.

The last option I thought of was if they simply decided to be the first team out the door and joined the SEC. That would probably completely screw their rivals. Do Duke and NC State have landing spots outside of the SEC or a Big East/ACC hybrid?

All hypothetical, but UNC to the SEC could have some really interesting ramifications.

Not sure about UNC bolting, they are so tied to Duke right now for rivalries. An interesting thought to me is that with Pitt and Syracuse joining, the home-and-home basketball series between NC State and UNC has been severed. I wonder how NC State would look as the SEC entry into North Carolina? There is a ton of history between the 3 triangle teams and the ACC, I'm not sure any of them are likely, but given the severing of this one tie, I wonder if NC State wouldn't be the most likely of the 3 to jump.

[Atocep]

Miami had the absolute worst timing possible for their troubles with the NCAA.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Not sure about UNC bolting, they are so tied to Duke right now for rivalries. An interesting thought to me is that with Pitt and Syracuse joining, the home-and-home basketball series between NC State and UNC has been severed. I wonder how NC State would look as the SEC entry into North Carolina? There is a ton of history between the 3 triangle teams and the ACC, I'm not sure any of them are likely, but given the severing of this one tie, I wonder if NC State wouldn't be the most likely of the 3 to jump.

I think it is pretty well believed that NC State and VPI are the most likely entries for the SEC into those two Southern states (for the reasons you mentioned). The question is, would the UNC-loaded Board allow them to leave without Duke and UNC finding a soft landing spot?

[Wolfpack]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Not sure about UNC bolting, they are so tied to Duke right now for rivalries. An interesting thought to me is that with Pitt and Syracuse joining, the home-and-home basketball series between NC State and UNC has been severed. I wonder how NC State would look as the SEC entry into North Carolina? There is a ton of history between the 3 triangle teams and the ACC, I'm not sure any of them are likely, but given the severing of this one tie, I wonder if NC State wouldn't be the most likely of the 3 to jump.

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I think it is pretty well believed that NC State and VPI are the most likely entries for the SEC into those two Southern states (for the reasons you mentioned). The question is, would the UNC-loaded Board allow them to leave without Duke and UNC finding a soft landing spot?

Many State fans are already seeing the writing on the wall at this point and are hoping like crazy that the SEC comes knocking. They believe ACC commish John Swofford pretty much mismanage everything about the most recent round of expansion. The TV contract was icing on the cake. Then again, State fans so hate Swofford's guts (remember, he's a UNC guy) that he could come up with a cure for cancer and State fans would assume he'd only give it to UNC fans just to spite everyone else.

Officially, at least, the State administration has never said anything other than the ACC is where we are and where we will be. However, this deal may just be the event that perhaps pushes the door open a bit more in the backchannels. Whether there has ever been contact between State and other conferences, I don't know, but until now, tradition and loyalty probably negated any interest in moving. However, at some point, these events are just becoming a bit too big to ignore. The question that State will need to ask itself is whether it is content to remain in a powerful basketball conference, but face diminishing returns in football should other schools leave. State and its donor base sunk a freightload of money into football facility improvements over the last decade, so they may not be as content to just stay in a conference that becomes potentially more irrelevant in football in the coming years.

Until now, I had thought the ACC would be able to ride this out relatively intact, but I'm not sure anymore. If FSU and/or Clemson (or Georgia Tech or Miami...) want to remain on the elite stage of college football, I don't think they'll have a chance at it anymore in the ACC.

Of course, depending on the hubris displayed by the newer smaller set of "BCS" conferences (Big 10, Big 12, SEC, Pac 12), it could cause enough consternation with enough other schools that they'll get those letters to Congress written up to try to level the playing field out again.

[digamma]

Agree with much of what you wrote, but there is one wild card. Notre Dame.

If the play-off goes the way of being conference champs only, then that forces ND's hand to join a conference. While the Big 1G seems logical, the ACC is also a candidate. If that happens, then I think the ACC stays together.

[duckman]

I think the ND to ACC is pretty much dead after today's announcement. If they join a conference, it will be either the Big 10 or the Big 12.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

We're headed for that Big 4 Super-Conference thing sooner than most expected.

I don't know about that. It was pretty apparent in the last 18 months how quickly we were moving towards that. The other schools not involved have just been in denial up to this point.

There's a far bigger reason for this bowl matchup that no one has brought up thus far. From the Houston Chronicle article this morning:

More importantly for the leagues, that revenue will be in full control of the two conferences, rather than the bowls that traditionally have had a lock on postseason funds. By creating their own bowl, the conferences can decide on their own matchup, name their price to television networks, control costs and not have to feed the bowl monster.

They're totally undermining the existing bowl system in one fell swoop. The bigger existing bowls are going to have to make major concessions or risk seeing the conferences create more of these 'bowl' games where they pocket all the money. A quote from Dodds, errrrrr, a B12 administrator..............

A Big 12 administrator said the two conferences aren't particularly interested in joining forces with an existing bowl unless they get to set the rules. The Big 12 and SEC are seeking to cut out the middle man.

We're going to see a heavy turnover of bowl games in the next few years as the smaller existing ones fold and new ones are created by the conferences to fill the void.

Solomon: Big 12-SEC deal could be big for city - Houston Chronicle

[Chubby]

doesn't the ncaa have to approve new bowls and didn't they put a moratorium on that?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Chubby

doesn't the ncaa have to approve new bowls and didn't they put a moratorium on that?

Directly from the NCAA website:

The NCAA is a voluntary Association comprised of colleges, universities, conferences and other organizations, and governed through a membership-led committee structure. Within the governance structure, committee members must carefully balance their responsibilities to their respective institutions and/or conferences with the obligation to advance the interests of the Association, the division, or the sport, and ultimately enhance the student-athlete experience. While the fiduciary obligations of committee members to their own institution, their conference, and to the Association ordinarily are not in conflict, it is recognized that as a representative membership organization, committee members’ fiduciary obligations are first to their institution, second to their conference, and third to the Association.

That's code for 'you can leave if you want'. Much like the bowls, the NCAA will have to fall in line or face not being a part of this system.

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/Nominating_Committees/coip.pdf

[Swaggs]

We'll see how this plays out, but one of the better WVU insiders is saying that FSU has agreed to jump to the Big 12 (with the concession that they will get games against Texas and Oklahoma every year -- I'm guessing that means they will be in a division with one and protected rival with the other). For right now, there is not an agreed upon #12, but the Big 12 may go up to 14.

I hope the SEC stays at 14 and VPI joins Florida State.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I don't know about that. It was pretty apparent in the last 18 months how quickly we were moving towards that. The other schools not involved have just been in denial up to this point.

There's a far bigger reason for this bowl matchup that no one has brought up thus far. From the Houston Chronicle article this morning:



They're totally undermining the existing bowl system in one fell swoop. The bigger existing bowls are going to have to make major concessions or risk seeing the conferences create more of these 'bowl' games where they pocket all the money. A quote from Dodds, errrrrr, a B12 administrator..............



We're going to see a heavy turnover of bowl games in the next few years as the smaller existing ones fold and new ones are created by the conferences to fill the void.

Solomon: Big 12-SEC deal could be big for city - Houston Chronicle

Agreed about the bowl revenues. It took awhile for the writers to figure it out, but this is the first of (I suspect) many bowl arrangements that will favor the teams and conferences, rather than making bowl organizers rich. Have seen estimate that, between television, tickets, sponsors, etc. the game will make between $25-$35M per year for each conference.

It will be interesting to see how the Big Ten and Pac 12 negotiate with the Rose Bowl. The matchup between those two conference is probably the only other one that can fetch that same range of revenue, but can/will they actually cut the Rose Bowl out?

[MacroGuru]

As all this spins about, as a BYU fan...I sit here and wonder what the hell the school is doing. I don't see independence as a survivable option. If we don't get into a conference soon, we are dead.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Agreed about the bowl revenues. It took awhile for the writers to figure it out, but this is the first of (I suspect) many bowl arrangements that will favor the teams and conferences, rather than making bowl organizers rich. Have seen estimate that, between television, tickets, sponsors, etc. the game will make between $25-$35M per year for each conference.

It will be interesting to see how the Big Ten and Pac 12 negotiate with the Rose Bowl. The matchup between those two conference is probably the only other one that can fetch that same range of revenue, but can/will they actually cut the Rose Bowl out?

Heck no, they won't cut the Rose Bowl out. But they've got the bargaining chip they need now with the deal that SEC/B12 has created. No one had taken that step before to show the bowls that they were willing to create a new system that cut them out. Now that they've done that, it's a whole different situation. The bowls are going to have to make major concessions to remain a part of this system. And they'll do so because the alternative is a frightening situation for those host cities and their committees.