2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Even being +19 means he makes it up by my math. This has been exhausting, I got dressed to go for a run almost 2 hours ago and I am still sitting here obsessing on this shit LOL

I'm planning on jumping on the treadmill in about 45 minutes and hope I don't see anything during my run that causes me to fall off!

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I'm planning on jumping on the treadmill in about 45 minutes and hope I don't see anything during my run that causes me to fall off!

This is why I only listen to music when I run

[Ksyrup]

Read this thread. I'm following this guy with an eye toward 2024. Wow!

Here's my #Election2020 5 things to know (maps at end)

1. DJT will win FL
As I've noted to @SeanTrende ppl confuse small margins for uncertain outcomes. DJT will lose Pinellas but D weakness in Miami Dade will bolster very narrow win

2. Biden will shock us all & win GA

(1/n)

— Reuben Rodriguez (@ReubenR80027912) November 2, 2020

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I'm planning on jumping on the treadmill in about 45 minutes and hope I don't see anything during my run that causes me to fall off!

Just make sure you film it. That would be worth a million views on Youtube.

[Ksyrup]

PA court will be issuing order requiring expanded access to vote counting process.

[Ksyrup]

Allegheny PA has 35K votes left to count but they won't get to them until tomorrow because elections staff have an "administrative day" today.

Can't make this crap up.

[PilotMan]

It's a massive slow play.

[kingfc22]

I still can't believe after 4 years and more specifically everything that occurred in 2020 that it's even this close.

*breathe*

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Even being +19 means he makes it up by my math. This has been exhausting, I got dressed to go for a run almost 2 hours ago and I am still sitting here obsessing on this shit LOL

i just moved a cord of firewood from my driveway to my backyard. Was nice to unplug from it and do some physical labor.

[PilotMan]

It's rather insane that the entire game plan for all this was divined before the election, and was summarily denied by the president and the party, and yet, here we are, with the exact thing we were told.

[ISiddiqui]

15k diff in GA. I believe 50k absentee ballots still not counted.

[Vegas Vic]

Could Pelosi be on her way out?

With frustrations bubbling up, Pelosi has become an early target for moderates representing suburban districts worried that their leadership's strategy hurt such members heading into the polls.

“It’s time for Democrats to elevate a new generation of leadership in both the House and the Senate,” one of the Democrats told The Hill. “Americans are clearly afraid of ‘socialism,’ want safe streets and neighborhoods and to vote for people who they believe will help put more money in their pockets.

"While Democratic policies can adequately address those issues," the lawmaker added, "our messaging mechanism clearly cannot.”

Centrist Democrats talk leadership changes after negative election results

[Butter]

NYT blog says:

Pennsylvania election officials plan to hold a news conference this afternoon. Democrats here are increasingly confident that Biden will have a big lead when all votes are counted.

All I've got to say is less talky, more count-y

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Allegheny PA has 35K votes left to count but they won't get to them until tomorrow because elections staff have an "administrative day" today.

Can't make this crap up.

CNN just said they are part of a lawsuit, or 29K of them are, and thats why they are held up.

Lawsuits starting to take hold. trumps plan working...

[PilotMan]

It's time for an entire new generation of leadership across the board quite honestly. I'm a 45 yr old man, and the only politician who has even come close to representing my generation is Obama.

[Drake]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Could Pelosi be on her way out?



Centrist Democrats talk leadership changes after negative election results

Like everything else Democrat, we'll talk about it for awhile and actually do nothing. We're essentially the Susan Collins of political parties.

[Lathum]

Here I am going to try to address some confusion about why Allegheny County is not going to begin counting 30,000+ ballots until tomorrow. People are going bonkers about this, or castigating hard-working employees on no sleep, and it is wrong. (thread)

— Chris Potter (@CPotterPgh) November 5, 2020

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

It's time for an entire new generation of leadership across the board quite honestly. I'm a 45 yr old man, and the only politician who has even come close to representing my generation is Obama.

This. I'm 42, a software developer, and often feel like a dinosaur when working next to 20-somethings. I cannot imagine how some old white men in their 70's can relate in any way to the life experiences and situations of a large portion of their electorate.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

This. I'm 42, a software developer, and often feel like a dinosaur when working next to 20-somethings. I cannot imagine how some old white men in their 70's can relate in any way to the life experiences and situations of a large portion of their electorate.

Hell, I'm 57 and relate better to the teens I coach than any of those 70 year old men LOL.

[kingfc22]

Nevada lead for Biden just increased with some Clark County votes coming in

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Hell, I'm 57 and relate better to the teens I coach than any of those 70 year old men LOL.

I'm 51 and have long asserted that the biggest existing cultural divide between generations is the one between GenX and Boomers. We're the first generation to start kindergarten in integrated schools, the first generation to have computers in our schools, the first generation with hip-hop music, and nearly the first generation with a large proliferation of mainstream "R" movies, and, as we discussed at FOFC maybe 3-4 weeks ago, our view of what constitutes humor differs vastly from Boomers as well, but is still quite mainstream for today. Those are all *gigantic* cultural shifts that the generation above us didn't experience. And in many cases, not only did they not experience the tech/race differences, in the case of movies and movies, in most cases they out-and-out rejected it, whereas the average Gen Xer has familiarity with the music and movies of the 2 generations beneath us. I can have a conversation about race, music, movies, or technology with the average 30-year-old, where the average 70-year-old would be completely lost.

[JPhillips]

Ric Grenell and Rudy aren't the GOP A legal team. The GOP establishment is already at, new phone, who dis?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Nevada lead for Biden just increased with some Clark County votes coming in

To 12k now. Jon Ralston, who knows Nevada politics better than anyone predicted this and said he thought Biden would win Nevada.

[Edward64]

538 guy is reporting Perdue-Ossoff will probably be a run-off.

NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 5, 12:09 PM

The announcement from Fulton County, Georgia, that Geoffrey mentioned about 20 minutes ago also has implications for the state’s regular Senate race. Perdue is now at 49.997 percent of the vote, per the secretary of state’s website, meaning this race is now in runoff territory. (And it’s unlikely Perdue will gain from here, given the types of ballots — absentee ballots and ballots from Democratic-leaning counties — that remain uncounted.)

[Ben E Lou]

Georgia at 14K with 98% reporting.

[kingfc22]

A lot of these pundits keep saying they think Biden is going to win by 500K plus votes in PA.

In 2016, Clinton got 584K votes at 82% in Philadelphia. Right now, Biden has 488K at 80% with 17% of the county left to count.

Biden is down by 115K. Where are they getting a 600K vote swing from?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Georgia at 14K with 98% reporting.

Good homage to "Bond, James Bond".

One of my top 20 movies (in addition to Hunter Killer).

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

A lot of these pundits keep saying they think Biden is going to win by 500K plus votes in PA.

In 2016, Clinton got 584K votes at 82% in Philadelphia. Right now, Biden has 488K at 80% with 17% of the county left to count.

Biden is down by 115K. Where are they getting a 600K vote swing from?

all the Philadephia suburb counties lean heavy democrat too. Plus Pittsburgh.

[molson]

Originally Posted by timmynausea

OK. One sports books just put it back up, Biden still favored. Not sure what that was about.

Do you know if the Pinnacle line is still out there? I was casually following it but haven't been able to find it on the site for a while.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Galaril

all the Philadephia suburb counties lean heavy democrat too. Plus Pittsburgh.

Right and also look at Michigan - as more absentee ballots get counted, the more of a gap Biden leads by. He's at +3% lead in Michigan now.

[larrymcg421]

PredictIt right now:

NV - Biden .91
AZ - Biden .76
GA - Biden .68
PA - Biden .82
NC - Trump .90

FWIW, I think that NC number is way too confident.

[molson]

The one Predicit line that's really moving is the one about when we'll get a winner. (Not today!)

[Edward64]

So are we feeling better about AZ yet?

And wonder if the Canada immigration website has crashed yet?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

PredictIt right now:

NV - Biden .91
AZ - Biden .76
GA - Biden .68
PA - Biden .82
NC - Trump .90

FWIW, I think that NC number is way too confident.

I agree with all. Maybe a little high on Georgia (I'm just skeptical there). I don't see a reasonable path for Biden to take NC. I believe he'd need to make up 77k+ out of the 117k outstanding ballots which we're not even sure how many will get returned.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by molson

The one Predicit line that's really moving is the one about when we'll get a winner. (Not today!)

Makes sense because the contract wording says we need a call from both CNN and Fox News. CNN has been super conservative on their calls.

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by molson

Do you know if the Pinnacle line is still out there? I was casually following it but haven't been able to find it on the site for a while.

I don't see it on their site either. Looking at this line tracker, I see Pinnacle changing the line at 10:01 am this morning to Biden -800:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/bet.../line-history/

Having checked that throughout the process, the sbrodds version was consistently updated ahead of the Pinnacle site, which makes me think it was accurate at that time. I think they have access to what a logged in Pinnacle customer sees, and there's been a lag to what we've been able to see on the site. That said, the sbrodds tracker doesn't necessarily pull a number down if the book pulls the line, so there are dead numbers up there.

In other words, I'm pretty sure Pinnacle had Biden -800 at 10:01 AM, but I don't know if that's still available or what.

[miami_fan]

We really aren't built for every vote counting, are we?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I'm 51 and have long asserted that the biggest existing cultural divide between generations is the one between GenX and Boomers. We're the first generation to start kindergarten in integrated schools, the first generation to have computers in our schools, the first generation with hip-hop music, and nearly the first generation with a large proliferation of mainstream "R" movies, and, as we discussed at FOFC maybe 3-4 weeks ago, our view of what constitutes humor differs vastly from Boomers as well, but is still quite mainstream for today. Those are all *gigantic* cultural shifts that the generation above us didn't experience. And in many cases, not only did they not experience the tech/race differences, in the case of movies and movies, in most cases they out-and-out rejected it, whereas the average Gen Xer has familiarity with the music and movies of the 2 generations beneath us. I can have a conversation about race, music, movies, or technology with the average 30-year-old, where the average 70-year-old would be completely lost.

Being as I'm not even quite there myself (40s and more an "Oregon Trail" micro-generation dweller): is this something every generation experiences or is it unique to the Boomer/Gen X divide? Like the tech native/non-tech native and integrated schools divide are both huge. But, does every generation get to their 50s or maybe 60s and is like "I can converse with people younger than me on a reasonable level"? I have no idea and I don't think we have a lot of people on this board old enough to answer this question (maybe that does answer the question).

SI

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Edward64

So are we feeling better about AZ yet?

And wonder if the Canada immigration website has crashed yet?

Why would Trumpers want to go to Canada? I think Hungary or Poland would be more their style.

[Atocep]

Nevada should be called soon. Washoe was Trump's only hope and it went to Biden narrowly in the latest batch.

Fox probably holds off as long as possible on calling it through because they'd be calling it for Biden.

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I'm 51 and have long asserted that the biggest existing cultural divide between generations is the one between GenX and Boomers. We're the first generation to start kindergarten in integrated schools, the first generation to have computers in our schools, the first generation with hip-hop music, and nearly the first generation with a large proliferation of mainstream "R" movies, and, as we discussed at FOFC maybe 3-4 weeks ago, our view of what constitutes humor differs vastly from Boomers as well, but is still quite mainstream for today. Those are all *gigantic* cultural shifts that the generation above us didn't experience. And in many cases, not only did they not experience the tech/race differences, in the case of movies and movies, in most cases they out-and-out rejected it, whereas the average Gen Xer has familiarity with the music and movies of the 2 generations beneath us. I can have a conversation about race, music, movies, or technology with the average 30-year-old, where the average 70-year-old would be completely lost.

These are great points. I hadn't thought much about the relationship the different generations have to race, technology, and culture that way, especially through the lenses of the specific thresholds you talked about, and it's a really profound observation.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Being as I'm not even quite there myself (40s and more an "Oregon Trail" micro-generation dweller): is this something every generation experiences or is it unique to the Boomer/Gen X divide? Like the tech native/non-tech native and integrated schools divide are both huge. But, does every generation get to their 50s or maybe 60s and is like "I can converse with people younger than me on a reasonable level"? I have no idea and I don't think we have a lot of people on this board old enough to answer this question (maybe that does answer the question).

SI

The degree differs between generations e.g. between Gen Y and Z are not that wide (or at least I don't think so).

However, I think there was a comparable great divide between the silent/greatest generation vs boomers. The former had the Depression and WW2 to deal with and boomers had rock & roll, Vietnam etc.

[Arles]

If I could sign a petition that would replace both McConnell and Pelosi, I would do it in a second. But with Biden, Covid and a struggling economy, McConnell is licking his chops. Like the old Heston saying, you will have to pry the senate leadership from his "cold, dead hands".

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by lungs

Why would Trumpers want to go to Canada? I think Hungary or Poland would be more their style.

Feeling confident, we are?

Tue night was bad, Wed morning was good, Wed night was shaky, Thu morning is still shaky IMO.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Nevada should be called soon. Washoe was Trump's only hope and it went to Biden narrowly in the latest batch.

Fox probably holds off as long as possible on calling it through because they'd be calling it for Biden.

Yep. LOL

Or they retract AZ which is the smarter thing to do based on where it currently sits.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Feeling confident, we are?

Tue night was bad, Wed morning was good, Wed night was shaky, Thu morning is still shaky IMO.

This pretty much nails my personal roller coaster

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Arles

If I could sign a petition that would replace both McConnell and Pelosi, I would do it in a second. But with Biden, Covid and a struggling economy, McConnell is licking his chops. Like the old Heston saying, you will have to pry the senate leadership from his "cold, dead hands".

I agree it would be great if McConnell and Pelosi both go at the same time.

I don't know if removing Pelosi now is that great of an idea. Maybe in the next mid-terms.

[Ben E Lou]

I don't think it's anything special about us as individuals; I think it's just a pure timing thing. The things I mentioned were all revolutionary shifts that sort of just cut off the Boomers, and since then there have been more just gradual evolutionary shifts.



Another silly one...


Boomer Women: "A lady never tells her age!"
Gen X Women: "GOOD MORNING, FACEBOOK AND INSTAGRAM!!! TODAY I'M FIFTY AND FLY, BITCHES!!!"

[Butter]

Why would they call Nevada? Less than a 12,000 vote lead with over 150k still to count. Easily swingable, theoretically.

They should call NC before they call NV with these numbers.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

We really aren't built for every vote counting, are we?

Sure we are... certifications don't have to be done until December.

It's just that we aren't built for every vote counting 3 days after election day.

Votes generally change through November as they keep counting votes (esp once that come through mail that are postmarked by election day)