2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[ISiddiqui]

AJC is saying it's more like 50k absentee votes not counted

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status...198932480?s=19

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[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If I'm reading GA right though we are basically done with Atlanta and just general absentee ballots to come, so I'm not sure Biden is still favored there?

It may not be updated, but the map i am looking at has 16K plus votes still out in Clayton, which if they stay on track would male up another 13K for Biden. This is just one crazy ass election.

I can't really get a good read on PA, with Philadelphia still at 70% in, is there still a road for Biden to take that state? Would really love to put that one to bad so it would not be coming down to Arizona and Nevada.

[ISiddiqui]

Philly has been at 70% all night - all this shift has happened without Philly votes. When Philly does come in, should help put Biden over the top.

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[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

AJC is saying it's more like 50k absentee votes not counted

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status...198932480?s=19

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This just might be a difference between what's been counted but not published yet and what's left based on the SOS's information.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Philly has been at 70% all night - all this shift has happened without Philly votes. When Philly does come in, should help put Biden over the top.

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That still only projects to a pick up of 54K. I am starting to get real nervous again

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

That still only projects to a pick up of 54K. I am starting to get real nervous again

Same

SI

[cuervo72]

Yep!

[sterlingice]

I mean, I am a bit of a worrier. If forced to guess,I think PA is going to come in for Biden and I think AZ doesn’t have enough votes left for Trump and I think NV is staying blue. But I feel less confident about these things than, say, 12 hours ago and I think GA may have run out of time and votes

SI

[spleen1015]

Yeah, not feeling good about it right now.

Yikes.

[ISiddiqui]

Just about every data head has said that think when everything is counted that PA will be +1.5-2% Biden. I have no reason to doubt them.

Besides by my math there seems to be a good 240k+ left in Philadelphia County. If it goes 80% as it has, that just about does it itself. And then you have Allegheny and Delaware Counties

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[jbergey22]

Biden is huge favorites in all the states except North Carolina and even them odds have decreased in Bidens favor overnight....

Unless these absentee ballots start shifting Trumps direction(not happening) Biden is well positioned in the drivers seat.

[Ksyrup]

GA SOS just said about 50K votes left. Sounds like 25K left to count, the other 25K counted but not reported?

[BYU 14]

Don't sleep on AZ flipping back to Trump. I would love to have this state be the decider for Biden and not vice versa, but it is going to be tight and the last thing I am going to believe right now are the data heads, they have not exactly been stellar this cycle.

[spleen1015]

I'm not believing anything before it happens.

[sabotai]

Just doing a bit of math on the Philly count, it's at 70% right now. The vote totals are 457,773 for Biden and 113,781 for Trump, giving it a 80/20 split for Biden. The mail in ballots should break even more for Biden, but let's assume it maintains the 80/20 spilt.

That puts Biden on track for 653,961 and Trump for 162,554, which would given Biden a net gain from 70% to 100% of 147,425 votes. Right now (8:20 AM EST) the difference is 164,414. And there are still of lot of votes to count outside of the city. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) is at 89%, Delaware County and Bucks County (suburbs of Philly) are at 83% and 86%. Lots of red counties are in the 70s as well, and even though Trump will carry those counties in the end, Biden will probably pick up a net gain of votes in those counties as the mail in ballots are counted.

But like I said in Philadelphia, it should break more for Biden than that. In 2016, Hilary got 82.3% of the vote in Philadelphia and Trump got 15.3%.

If those percentages end up where we are in Philly, and I'll give all of the third party vote to Trump, that would give Biden 671,984 and Trump 144,521, and a net gain from 70% to 100% of the vote counted of 183,470.

God I'm bored...

[sabotai]

dola, but I'm a worrier too so most of my brain isn't letting me believe Biden will carry PA until it's official.

[spleen1015]

From about an hour ago:

Arizona: Joe Biden holds about a 69,000 vote lead in CNN’s count. Maricopa, the biggest county in Arizona, has released the second of two sets of new votes promised Wednesday night – shrinking the Biden lead there by just over 10,000 votes. Early this morning, the county tweeted that 275,000 remain and that its next update will come at 9 p.m. ET. Meanwhile, the next biggest share of votes come from blue-leaning Pima County. The state’s website said 46,000 votes remained to be counted in Pima as of last night.

Georgia: Fulton County, in the Atlanta area, just added 8,300 ballots to its tally, further cutting into Trump’s lead in the state. Georgia’s largest county still has about 7,564 ballots left to count, Fulton County's Regina Walker said just after 5 a.m. ET. But remember: Georgia could be the next target for President Trump to request a recount. CNN reported a source familiar with the matter says that if Georgia is close, “of course” the Trump camp will ask for a recount if he loses.

Nevada: Biden holds a slim 8,000 vote lead. Clark County — home to Las Vegas — has, by far, the largest share of votes in Nevada. After a full day of silence from Clark county and the state overall, all eyes will be on Clark when it updates at 12 noon ET.

Pennsylvania: The state as a whole has about 750,000 mail-in ballots to be counted, according to the Secretary of State’s website, though this figure has not been updated recently. Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh, has finished tabulating mail-in and absentee ballots. Officials say the county will resume tabulating several precincts’ worth of in-person votes later this morning.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Just doing a bit of math on the Philly count, it's at 70% right now. The vote totals are 457,773 for Biden and 113,781 for Trump, giving it a 80/20 split for Biden. The mail in ballots should break even more for Biden, but let's assume it maintains the 80/20 spilt.

That puts Biden on track for 653,961 and Trump for 162,554, which would given Biden a net gain from 70% to 100% of 147,425 votes. Right now (8:20 AM EST) the difference is 164,414. And there are still of lot of votes to count outside of the city. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) is at 89%, Delaware County and Bucks County (suburbs of Philly) are at 83% and 86%. Lots of red counties are in the 70s as well, and even though Trump will carry those counties in the end, Biden will probably pick up a net gain of votes in those counties as the mail in ballots are counted.

But like I said in Philadelphia, it should break more for Biden than that. In 2016, Hilary got 82.3% of the vote in Philadelphia and Trump got 15.3%.

If those percentages end up where we are in Philly, and I'll give all of the third party vote to Trump, that would give Biden 671,984 and Trump 144,521, and a net gain from 70% to 100% of the vote counted of 183,470.

God I'm bored...

I think the dissonance is that it's a lot different than the PA will go Biden by 1-2% that we heard all yesterday

SI

[Swaggs]

I think it is looking like:

PA - Biden comfortably
NV and GA - Biden by a very close margin
AZ - tossup
NC - Trump by a close margin

PA will be called first, later today.
GA will wrap up but be close enough for recount and military/cured/provisions to need checked.
NV is going to take days.
Arizona seems like it will be done today, but will be in recount territory.
NC is going to stay uncalled for another week+.

[sovereignstar v2]

https://twitter.com/michaelkosta/sta...979516929?s=19

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by sabotai

dola, but I'm a worrier too so most of my brain isn't letting me believe Biden will carry PA until it's official.

Georgia should clinch it \ by mid day so you wont have to worry about PA

[ISiddiqui]

Re: Pennsylvania - remember there are 11% of the vote still to be counted. All absentee. And Pennsylvania went from something like 500k to 150k in 10% of vote counting yesterday.

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[Ksyrup]

GA should be a recount, for either side. I wouldn't want to rely on GA for the margin. It needs to be the cherry on top, not the decider.

[Swaggs]

Georgia "only" gets Biden to 269.

Jon Ralston was just on MSNBC and said it may be days before Nevada is completed. Hard to fathom why some of these places are taking so long (I get it in the states that are allowing postmarked mail-ins).

[PilotMan]

Well I wake up and see you guys are all kind of full of not awesome news this morning. I expected better. Really hard staying distracted and exercising patience while trying really hard not to get up or down too far.

[Swaggs]

Playing around with the map, if Biden wins the outstanding states aside from Trump taking NC, that makes it 306-232. That is the same number that Trump won over Clinton (aside from unfaithful electors) in 2016. I think that would be helpful in keeping Trump from invalidating a Biden presidency (I'm sure he'll find other things).

[Ksyrup]

So Trump filed a bunch of lawsuits, several of which were to "stop" voting. I do absolutely no litigation in my practice, but I would assume these are some sort of TRO filing, right? Why have we heard nothing about emergency hearings, etc.? The votes will be counted before they (theoretically) would get a court order to stop them. Why are we hearing nothing about the lawsuits?

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Georgia should clinch it \ by mid day so you wont have to worry about PA

Actually Biden is at 253 and Georgia is 16 votes. My nightmare is Biden takes Georgia, and Trump holds barely in PA and NC plus takes AZ and NV winning 269-270 :-(

[Butter]

I saw a quote from a legal scholar that said something like "a lawsuit filed without provable facts showing no statutory or constitutional violation is just a tweet with a filing fee". So I imagine it's something like that.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Actually Biden is at 253 and Georgia is 16 votes. My nightmare is Biden takes Georgia, and Trump holds barely in PA and NC plus takes AZ and NV winning 269-270 :-(

Did that 1 vote in Maine get called already? It was always suppose to go to Biden but Trump was leading right away.

I know Biden got the Nebraska 1 vote.

[albionmoonlight]

Went to bed early last night feeling good. Expected those AZ numbers to lock it in for Biden. Expected NV to complete. PA was moving along very nicely.

Now rumors of PA having less ballots outstanding than we thought. And AZ numbers being close. And NV didn't report (still not worried about NV, though).

The momentum got a little reversed overnight/this morning, I feel.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Did that 1 vote in Maine get called already? It was always suppose to go to Biden but Trump was leading right away.

I know Biden got the Nebraska 1 vote.

Trump got that 1 district of Maine vote. Trumps PA lead down to 147k

[sovereignstar v2]

Uh, isn't there only 538 total electoral votes. Something is wrong with your tally, Galaril.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

Uh, isn't there only 538 total electoral votes. Something is wrong with your tally, Galaril.

Yes that is true it would be a tie 269-269 but also I don’tthink That Maine district has been called yet for Trump so take that back.

[JPhillips]

And then the lawsuits began.

[jbergey22]

Trump is determined to tear this country into pieces. Hes just not going to take his loss and move on. Hes gonna hang this election into the courts and get everyone riled up.

And this type of shit is the #1 reason he had to go...

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

So Trump filed a bunch of lawsuits, several of which were to "stop" voting. I do absolutely no litigation in my practice, but I would assume these are some sort of TRO filing, right? Why have we heard nothing about emergency hearings, etc.? The votes will be counted before they (theoretically) would get a court order to stop them. Why are we hearing nothing about the lawsuits?

On CNN last night, one of the panelists said her source inside the WH said that Trump sees the writing on the wall and he is still having his lawyers litigate.

When you and I get up in the morning, we brush our teeth. It's programmed into us.

Trump is that way with litigation. I didn't get my way? Lawyers! Go get 'em!

[PilotMan]

So basically it looks like this:

Give NC to trump, and you leave PA, NC, GA, AZ open and here's what you get.

If Biden wins Nevada, he needs 1 other state, any will do.
If Biden wins PA he wins outright with nothing else needed.
trump cannot win without GA, he can only tie.
Biden can win without PA and GA, with both NV and AZ.
To win outright, trump needs both PA and GA and either NV or AZ (obv).

[ISiddiqui]

Pennsylvania is counting again. 142k lead with 89% counted. Philly starting to report.

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[Brian Swartz]

I don't think the counting taking long is a surprise at all. We don't have enough volunteers every year for the polling locations themselves, why would be able to count quickly? I'm surprised we know as much as we do at this stage myself.

[Lathum]

JUST IN: Trump campaign set to make a “major announcement” in Las Vegas at 11:30 ET/ 8:30 PT @CNN

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 5, 2020

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

PA bout 164K.

143K

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Lathum

JUST IN: Trump campaign set to make a “major announcement” in Las Vegas at 11:30 ET/ 8:30 PT @CNN

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 5, 2020

Is he going to announce himself the victor? Wouldnt surprise me.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Re: Pennsylvania - remember there are 11% of the vote still to be counted. All absentee. And Pennsylvania went from something like 500k to 150k in 10% of vote counting yesterday.

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Lt. Governor in PA just said Philly ballots are breaking 90-10 in favor of Biden, and Pittsburgh is 80-20 in favor of Biden. I think he said 250,000 ballots left to be counted.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't think the counting taking long is a surprise at all. We don't have enough volunteers every year for the polling locations themselves, why would be able to count quickly? I'm surprised we know as much as we do at this stage myself.

I guess it's not a surprise as we've been warned about possible delays prior to the elections but it's not good. Even thought PA couldn't start counting until election day, they had a month+ to prepare so why couldn't they hire more and/or scale up for the projected need.

In running a project, you come up with a risk/issues matrix and then discuss possible mitigation. It doesn't seem as if PA (or others) did their due diligence.

(But as always, it is admittedly easy to say but harder to do)

[ISiddiqui]

Hire more? How much of a surplus does your state have right now?

Besides these are all volunteers. At least they are in GA

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[Ksyrup]

Given the 3 day window in PA, wouldn't they be projecting to finish counting by Friday? And apparently military absentee ballots have 10 days.

[Brian Swartz]

Sure we could just hire more etc., but if we wanted to do that we wouldn't have the shortages every election cycle, we wouldn't have issues like the Bush-Gore ballot still being used in Florida four years later after all the problems there were with it, we'd fix the issues in voter registration, etc.

I.e. all of this is very much fixable but it's not a surprise we are where we are because in very few places is it a budgetary priority.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I guess it's not a surprise as we've been warned about possible delays prior to the elections but it's not good. Even thought PA couldn't start counting until election day, they had a month+ to prepare so why couldn't they hire more and/or scale up for the projected need.

In running a project, you come up with a risk/issues matrix and then discuss possible mitigation. It doesn't seem as if PA (or others) did their due diligence.

(But as always, it is admittedly easy to say but harder to do)

PA is governed by a democrat but the legislature is Republican and they set it up this way for the very reason to cause issues.

Republicans fuck everything up that isn't for them.

[Ksyrup]

My twitter feed has been littered with BS like this since Tuesday. Allegations of fraud explained, but largely ignored by those who want to ignore it.

Many election management systems use 1900 as a missing data code for records that had no discernable birthdate when the state transitioned their paper records into an electronic system https://t.co/acbU8eAqTO

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 5, 2020