11-04-2020, 08:44 PM | #6651 |
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Location: Decatur, GA
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Yeah, I think Trump makes AZ really close, but Biden takes it with maybe 0.5%. PA looks like it'll be 2% for Biden when it's all done.
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11-04-2020, 08:46 PM | #6652 |
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And Georgia looks like it'll squeak to Biden, too
Si
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11-04-2020, 08:48 PM | #6653 | |
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Quote:
Agreed. Last night, I was channel surfing between CNN, Fox News, MSNBC and the other networks. One thing that struck me about the Fox News panel was that it seemed they were going overboard on not trying to be biased toward Trump. It was almost like listening to Jay Bilas call a Duke basketball game on ESPN. |
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11-04-2020, 08:53 PM | #6654 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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The AP has also called AZ for Biden. Not saying they can't be wrong, but it'd be extremely surprising.
Perhaps they are mistaking the nature of the AZ mail in vote versus other states. But I don't believe it's a mistake
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11-04-2020, 08:56 PM | #6655 | |
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Quote:
I was getting tired of NBC and CNN's dithering so I actually went to Fox more than I usually do SI
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11-04-2020, 08:57 PM | #6656 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
What do you mean by "institutional standpoint"? |
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11-04-2020, 08:58 PM | #6657 |
Favored Bitch #1
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11-04-2020, 09:00 PM | #6658 |
Hall Of Famer
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Location: Decatur, GA
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186k lead in PA. Still 88% counted. Still 70% in Philadelphia County.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
11-04-2020, 09:08 PM | #6659 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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I'm seeing projections for a 6-7 million popular vote win for Biden.
And he still might lose. edit: Don't know why I wrote percent rather than million. Percentage projection is around 4% or a little above.
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11-04-2020, 09:08 PM | #6660 |
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Georgia lead is 33k with 95% counted. Down from 372k lead with 78% counted last night.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams Last edited by ISiddiqui : 11-04-2020 at 09:08 PM. |
11-04-2020, 09:09 PM | #6661 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Can you imagine what it is like to be in the same room as Trump right now?
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11-04-2020, 09:11 PM | #6662 |
Checkraising Tourists
Join Date: Jan 2001
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As we wait for the final results to come in, I've been following up to see what pollster Frank Luntz has to say now that the election is over. He doesn't mince words:
“The biggest one of all is the Washington post that had — as we’re watching in Wisconsin, a one point lead — the Washington post poll just a few days ago had Joe Biden winning by 17 points,” he noted. “That’s not a mistake. That’s not an error. That’s polling malpractice, and you have to go to tremendous lengths to be able to get something that wrong so close to the election.” Luntz went on to say, “The fact is the published polling was so wrong, and not just for presidents, but for House races, for the Senate races." Last edited by Vegas Vic : 11-04-2020 at 09:14 PM. |
11-04-2020, 09:12 PM | #6663 |
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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Trump needs 57% of the remaining votes in AZ and they are coming from areas that slightly to strongly lean democrat. I think the call is still pretty safe.
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11-04-2020, 09:15 PM | #6664 | |
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Quote:
That was a problem on a lot of the networks. And they seemed to be sync'd up, too! Like they'd all be going to break at the same time. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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11-04-2020, 09:16 PM | #6665 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
I don't know if it's malpractice but it's pretty evident the polling didn't work well. Missing in 2016 is somewhat understandable. Missing in 2020 is pretty bad. In 2024, no one will be trusting the polls. |
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11-04-2020, 09:17 PM | #6666 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Biden winning GA will be sweet.
I'd feel as if I made a difference. |
11-04-2020, 09:19 PM | #6667 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Good question, Edward. I simply mean that nobody wants key American institutions to function they way they are supposed to. It's one thing when they malfunction and we implement them poorly. It's another when nobody wants them to work.
Most of this board doesn't need to be convinced that Trumpists are fine with undermining our institutions. They won't see the progressive movement in that light, because they generally have never placed the value I have on some American distinctives such as the Senate, EC, certain aspects of checks and balances & separation of powers, 'originalist' constitutionality, and so forth. For someone such as myself however, I don't see a way back. Nobody's even pretending to defend such key ideas anymore. Extremism is on the rise in many places around the world as well, and the more stable democratic nations around the world have long had a dimmer view of American distinctives than the progressive wing here does. That's without even getting into the need for someone to take the lead in moving towards the types of global authorities and cooperation we need to deal with the challenges of the future and move away from the nation-state as a whole. There are very few nations who have the clout to do so, and from my point of view they all seem content to have humanity slide into the abyss so long as they aren't the first ones down the vortex. We'll figure this out eventually, but it'll be way too late to avoid disaster by the time we do. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 11-04-2020 at 09:23 PM. |
11-04-2020, 09:22 PM | #6668 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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On the polling, I'm not sure it is malpractice. It might be that polling simply can't reach everyone it needs to reach to be accurate within current techniques. I think what someone said about the Collins race in Maine was revealing - that's not far off from what happened in Wisconsin.
2016 was right on nationally and had a few states off. 2018 was also close. Cycles before that were very close. This one is not - it looks like nationally it will be off by several points and far worse than that in many highly-polled races. I know I will be a lot less confident in the results of any poll on any subject for years. We can't say we know what the public thinks anymore. That might be a good thing, but saying they support this or that candidate/party on this or that issue ... we just don't know that anymore. There's too much uncertainty. |
11-04-2020, 09:30 PM | #6669 |
Hall Of Famer
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Location: Newburgh, NY
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Now protestors in AZ demanding that they stop counting.
I'm not sure these MAGA protests are well thought out.
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11-04-2020, 09:38 PM | #6670 |
Coordinator
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Location: The scorched Desert
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11-04-2020, 09:39 PM | #6671 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
The discussion will get lost in this thread. I wouldn't mind participating in a separate thread if you are so inclined. I messaged Nate at 538 and he said there is a 75% chance it gets to the "racism" angle and/or personal insults which is when I'll excuse myself |
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11-04-2020, 09:43 PM | #6672 |
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Join Date: Jan 2001
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https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/sta...433521665?s=19
Lol, who had that on your board? Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
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11-04-2020, 09:52 PM | #6673 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Also chanting "count the votes," while in Atlanta and earlier in Detroit it was "stop the count." What a bunch of morans.
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11-04-2020, 09:58 PM | #6674 | |
Checkraising Tourists
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Quote:
As it turns out, the Presidential polling this year wasn't nearly as horrible as the Senate and House projections, dumpster fires from almost every "reputable" pollster. |
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11-04-2020, 09:59 PM | #6675 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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CNN has a pic-in-a-pic during commercials showing people (wearing masks but not quite 6ft apart) processing the ballots in Atlanta at 11pm.
I'm guessing they work in shifts and do this 24 hours a day until it's all done. Appreciate their dedication. |
11-04-2020, 10:04 PM | #6676 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Someone tweeted they estimate being done counting in Atlanta by 3am.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-04-2020, 10:15 PM | #6677 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Minnesota
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Trump considering suing Nevada and Arizona as well!
#Trump2020JustSue |
11-04-2020, 10:17 PM | #6678 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
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Barring a complete massacre on one side or the other, this was always gonna come down to lawyers, no matter who won.
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11-04-2020, 10:19 PM | #6679 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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Wall street sure likes this probable outcome more than they liked Trump's win in 2016.
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11-04-2020, 10:24 PM | #6680 |
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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There was a lot of Wall Street panic due to the polls showing a “blue wave” of Biden and the senate last week. Now that looks like it won’t happen so Wall Street is happy big cap gains taxes look less likely
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11-04-2020, 10:27 PM | #6681 |
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Join Date: Jan 2001
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Wow, now 164k lead in PA. 89% counted. Philadelphia County still at 70% counted.
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11-04-2020, 10:30 PM | #6682 |
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Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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CNN just showed these “patriots” outside the counting station in Arizona, but the radical left.
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11-04-2020, 10:31 PM | #6683 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2004
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Quote:
Yeah not quite the same as these folks dedication but my wife a public school teacher took the day off to be a election voting poll worker. She did a 16 hour day almost on standing up with a 30 minute lunch and a 15 minute break. This is in a heavy R country so she had to some fun stories of having to deal with disruptive MAGAs. |
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11-04-2020, 10:32 PM | #6684 |
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11-04-2020, 11:18 PM | #6685 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Those patriots outside a counting station threatening the staff inside... in a state and county that Trump is behind and they really need them to keep counting for him to have any chance nationally. Geniuses.
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11-04-2020, 11:19 PM | #6686 |
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11-04-2020, 11:27 PM | #6687 |
Head Coach
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Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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GA down to 28k vote difference
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11-04-2020, 11:54 PM | #6688 |
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11-05-2020, 01:47 AM | #6689 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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The news from Maricopa County continues to be worrying for Biden... just bled about another 11k votes off the latest chunk that was processed. Not sure if that carries through the end of the count (and a decent chunk is from Pima rather than Maricopa) but I can definitely see how the math can be there for Trump to pull ahead in the next 12 hours.
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11-05-2020, 03:58 AM | #6690 | |
College Prospect
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: TX
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Quote:
Charlie kirk was jumping up and down when last drop was over 55 percent feels last drops are going to be higher than the big city drop they doing now. Plus he said around midnight Georgia had 14k votes left with trump winning by 23k. Should check him out unless he getting bad data from counties.
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I try to open things I probably have no chance of opening. Last edited by TCY Junkie : 11-05-2020 at 03:59 AM. |
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11-05-2020, 04:42 AM | #6691 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2007
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Can someone explain to me how analysis from Exit Polls (like how many of a certain demographic voted for whome or for what reason) as a tool of analysis make any sense in a year where sooooo many people did not actually visit a polling station and those are by all accounts vastly 'different' from those that did in their preferences, reasoning and maybe even demographic ?
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11-05-2020, 04:47 AM | #6692 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Go for it you wish - I'm not particular on what thread I discuss it in. I always assume that percentage is upwards of 90% myself. |
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11-05-2020, 05:30 AM | #6693 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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... taking a well deserved rest in Portland drinking their chai latte with coconut milk. Good thing the radical right protests are peaceful (so far). Last edited by Edward64 : 11-05-2020 at 05:34 AM. |
11-05-2020, 05:31 AM | #6694 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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11-05-2020, 05:32 AM | #6695 | |
College Prospect
Join Date: Oct 2020
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Quote:
He's literally a Trump troll. |
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11-05-2020, 05:33 AM | #6696 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2007
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But hasn't a lot of this to do with them being heavily outdated in at least a sizable number of questions/areas ? This rings to me similar to the "let's interpret 200+ year old documents based on what they actually wanted" (never mind it being a "want" for an utterly different time) school of thought re: Law.
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“The only people for me are the mad ones, the ones who are mad to live, mad to talk, mad to be saved, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing, but burn, burn, burn, like fabulous yellow roman candles exploding like spiders across the stars and in the middle you see the blue centerlight pop and everybody goes "Awww!” |
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11-05-2020, 06:13 AM | #6697 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Trump's lead is under under 19K in Georgia now. PA bout 164K. NC will not update again until 11/12.
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11-05-2020, 06:40 AM | #6698 |
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11-05-2020, 06:40 AM | #6699 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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If I'm reading GA right though we are basically done with Atlanta and just general absentee ballots to come, so I'm not sure Biden is still favored there?
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11-05-2020, 06:49 AM | #6700 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
I think the theory is absentee ballots will favor Biden but uncertainty is how many is left. I read somewhere (don't know accuracy or timing) there is about 25,000 ballots left to be counted, so there may not be enough for Biden. Either way, I wouldn't be surprised for a GA recount. Momentum has swung to Trump on AZ so Trump does still have a "better-than-Wed-morning" chance to victory. Last edited by Edward64 : 11-05-2020 at 06:50 AM. |
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