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Old 11-04-2020, 01:07 PM   #6451
ISiddiqui
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ironhead View Post
Something I have been trying to find on this - of the votes left to count are they all same day votes or are they mail in votes? Just trying to figure out which way they may break.

Right now, almost all of the votes yet to count are mail in or provisional or same day drop off. Meaning they favor Biden.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:11 PM   #6452
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how does Biden win NE-2 and the Republican wins the district? seems like a weird ticket split.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:13 PM   #6453
Ironhead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ISiddiqui View Post
Right now, almost all of the votes yet to count are mail in or provisional or same day drop off. Meaning they favor Biden.

Thanks. Almost immediately after I just saw this posted:

"The Arizona Republic surveyed county recorders and estimates that 600,000 ballots remain to be counted in Arizona. A full 450,000 of those ballots are in Maricopa County (Phoenix) and break down as follows: 248,000 early ballots (which in Arizona includes both mail-in and in-person votes) that arrived on Monday or Tuesday, 160,000-180,000 mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day and 29,000 provisional ballots. Maricopa expects to release two batches of results tonight: one at 9 p.m. Eastern and one sometime after 12:30 a.m. Eastern."
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:14 PM   #6454
Ben E Lou
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ISiddiqui View Post
Trump is asking for a Wisconsin recount... but there is no way it's going to make up 20k votes.
Even this guy would seem to agree...

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Old 11-04-2020, 01:22 PM   #6455
bhlloy
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In a recount could they challenge which ballots are counted or file injunctions to get certain ballots thrown out? I mean even that doesn't really sound realistic to get 20k thrown out unless they have a certain category in mind, which I'm not sure I've seen mentioned for WI.

I mean there has to be some endgame here right... asking for the recount and losing surely delegitimizes the "I was winning and then things got shady" argument?
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:25 PM   #6456
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Does anyone have any good Georgia sites or updates?

I feel like I have the midwest and southwest covered between a few twitter accounts, but it seems like Georgia is stuck.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:26 PM   #6457
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NBC giving Wisconsin to Biden now
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:30 PM   #6458
Thomkal
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I have not followed the thread here or checked news sites, so I am curoius about one thing-Did any of the state legislatures that pundits felt had a good chance to flip to D actually flip?
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:32 PM   #6459
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Butter View Post
I appreciate your point, but then you run into the same problem that whites have, which is Republicans aren't getting anyone paid except the wealthy. So I guess they're being successful in getting people to either pretend they're wealthy enough to need tax cuts or will be someday vs. voting in their own actual interest... it's a trick the GOP has been pulling for many years.

But that is the thing. What the two presidential election cycles have proven is that for whites that is not a problem. I would argue the same for blacks if there wasn't a consistent pay gap. People are not necessarily trying to get paid like the wealthy, they are trying to make sure they get paid a wage commiserate with their qualifications, quality of work and in line with their co-workers in some order. If that happens and Jeff Bezos makes another $3 billion, I doubt you hear too many real complaints. That is in everyone's own self interest regardless of race. The problem arise when I don't get paid not when Bezos gets paid.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:37 PM   #6460
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The Trump campaign is suing to stop the counting in Michigan. They really should have gotten out in front of this and sued to stop Michigan from voting in the first place.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:41 PM   #6461
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Stop counting in Michigan and Pennsylvania! But keep counting in Nevada and Arizona!
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:42 PM   #6462
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jas_lov View Post
Stop counting in Michigan and Pennsylvania! But keep counting in Nevada and Arizona!

LOL, seriously
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:43 PM   #6463
stevew
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomkal View Post
I have not followed the thread here or checked news sites, so I am curoius about one thing-Did any of the state legislatures that pundits felt had a good chance to flip to D actually flip?

I can't find the article but I think the answer is a resounding "no".

Also House is already -5 dems, they can only lose 8 more seats and have a majority I believe. And a tight majority isn't great when 5 or more house members always seem to disappear mid cycle.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:44 PM   #6464
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Don't know how practical, but I'm okay doing a recount for all states that Trump & Biden want to do a recount for. I can easily believe there were small-med irregularities but not necessarily enough to change the results.

Some may view it as a waste of money, but let's go through the process with the necessary legal/political hacks, identify any issues or discrepancies, and ultimately have SCOTUS resolve them before inauguration day.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:45 PM   #6465
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Thanks Steve, how disappointing
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:46 PM   #6466
sterlingice
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SI
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:48 PM   #6467
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Edward64 View Post
Don't know how practical, but I'm okay doing a recount for all states that Trump & Biden want to do a recount for. I can easily believe there were small-med irregularities but not necessarily enough to change the results.

Some may view it as a waste of money, but let's go through the process with the necessary legal/political hacks, identify any issues or discrepancies, and ultimately have SCOTUS resolve them before inauguration day.

I'm ok with making sure it's right.

There's the added bonus that Trump will have resources tied up with the recount that can't be deployed doing other stupid crap.

SI
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:50 PM   #6468
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I think we can all agree this is/was an exciting election.

Fantastic entertainment with emotions & hopes up-down-up-down-rinse & repeat.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:51 PM   #6469
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sterlingice View Post
I'm ok with making sure it's right.

There's the added bonus that Trump will have resources tied up with the recount that can't be deployed doing other stupid crap.

SI

Same here and as long as it follows that laws set in place. I know in some states it has to be 1% or less before a candidate can ask for a recount. But, asking for a recount just because the candidate is losing, that's a whole other ball of wax, but, also is one of the reasons repubs rushed through another supreme court justice if it gets that far.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:54 PM   #6470
timmynausea
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One of the sports books I've been keeping an eye on, Bookmaker, now has Pennsylvania at Biden -205, Trump +158, which would work out to 63% in favor of Biden.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:56 PM   #6471
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bhlloy View Post
In a recount could they challenge which ballots are counted or file injunctions to get certain ballots thrown out? I mean even that doesn't really sound realistic to get 20k thrown out unless they have a certain category in mind, which I'm not sure I've seen mentioned for WI.

I mean there has to be some endgame here right... asking for the recount and losing surely delegitimizes the "I was winning and then things got shady" argument?


I think it's partly appeasing Trump and partly dragging things out as much as possible. They're also suing to stop vote counting in Michigan. Right now their best hope is some weird-ish numbers coming in from the remaining Arizona ballots. Hopefully their scheduled update at 9pm est makes it at least mathematically unlikely.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:57 PM   #6472
ISiddiqui
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Quote:
Originally Posted by timmynausea View Post
One of the sports books I've been keeping an eye on, Bookmaker, now has Pennsylvania at Biden -205, Trump +158, which would work out to 63% in favor of Biden.

Nate Cohn at NYTimes also thinks Pennsylvania is going to swing for Biden.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:58 PM   #6473
sterlingice
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jas_lov View Post
For Nevada I always follow Jon Ralston for the election. He said Biden has already built up a bigger margin in Clark County than Hillary and he predicted Biden would win by about 4.

Ralston has been a great follow over the last 12ish hours

SI
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Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!"
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Last edited by sterlingice : 11-04-2020 at 01:59 PM.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:01 PM   #6474
sterlingice
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Edward64 View Post
I think we can all agree this is/was an exciting election.

Fantastic entertainment with emotions & hopes up-down-up-down-rinse & repeat.

With so much at stake, I'm not really interested in "exciting" I prefer to save that for sports and other "frivolous" pursuits.

SI
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:02 PM   #6475
Ghost Econ
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I have way too much caffeine in me right now trying to stay up to work.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:02 PM   #6476
albionmoonlight
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atocep View Post
I think it's partly appeasing Trump and partly dragging things out as much as possible. They're also suing to stop vote counting in Michigan. Right now their best hope is some weird-ish numbers coming in from the remaining Arizona ballots. Hopefully their scheduled update at 9pm est makes it at least mathematically unlikely.

Nate Cohn had a tweet saying that those ballots being pro-Trump enough is possible, but mainly b/c we just haven't seen what "late earlies" from Maracopa look like. So you hesitate to make a prediction based on something unknown.

He said that the most likely result "by far" (his words) are that they will not be pro-Trump enough to make a difference.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:04 PM   #6477
ISiddiqui
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Biden is up by 3mil in the national popular vote. He'll likely end up 4-5mil up.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:06 PM   #6478
sabotai
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Edward64 View Post
I think we can all agree this is/was an exciting election.

Fantastic entertainment with emotions & hopes up-down-up-down-rinse & repeat.

Whether it's 4 months or 4 years from now, I can't wait for politics to be boring again.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:10 PM   #6479
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Edward64 View Post
Don't know how practical, but I'm okay doing a recount for all states that Trump & Biden want to do a recount for. I can easily believe there were small-med irregularities but not necessarily enough to change the results.

Some may view it as a waste of money, but let's go through the process with the necessary legal/political hacks, identify any issues or discrepancies, and ultimately have SCOTUS resolve them before inauguration day.

I completely disagree unless everyone including voters and the USPS get a redo. The issues that we have now were identified months ago and both parties chose not to do anything about it. In what be the slogan for the election.

This is who we are.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:10 PM   #6480
sterlingice
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Speaking of Twitter follows, etc - what tabs does everyone have open right now?

2020 Election: Live Results And Coverage | FiveThirtyEight Five Thirty Eight's election coverage - for general returns and news
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn Nate Cohn, NYTimes - for general returns news
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...president.html NYTimes - for their accursed needle to get a handle on GA, NC
https://twitter.com/lennybronner Lenny Bronner, WaPo - for their data models
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports Jon Ralston, The Nevada Independent - for NV
https://twitter.com/johnkruzel John Kruzel, The Hill - for legal stuff
https://twitter.com/TimAlberta Tim Alberta, Politico - news updates, lots of good retweets, and some snark

SI
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Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!"
Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!"



Last edited by sterlingice : 11-04-2020 at 02:11 PM.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:13 PM   #6481
ISiddiqui
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I generally look at Nate Cohn, Nate Silver with a little glances at Tim Alberta and Jon Ralston.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:20 PM   #6482
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ABC took AZ out of the likely Biden column. I've been hearing it's not a done deal.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:20 PM   #6483
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Somehow we all missed the news that Kanye West has admitted defeat.


But he is running in 2024!
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:20 PM   #6484
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Quote:
Originally Posted by albionmoonlight View Post
Nate Cohn had a tweet saying that those ballots being pro-Trump enough is possible, but mainly b/c we just haven't seen what "late earlies" from Maracopa look like. So you hesitate to make a prediction based on something unknown.

He said that the most likely result "by far" (his words) are that they will not be pro-Trump enough to make a difference.


Cohn is also bullish on Biden coming out ahead in PA
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:26 PM   #6485
ISiddiqui
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Georgia now down to a 78k difference... still showing 93% of the state counted with blue urban counties (Dekalb, Cobb, Clayton, Muscogee, Richmond, Chatham) making up the vast majority of the difference.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:27 PM   #6486
kingfc22
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Originally Posted by Ksyrup View Post
ABC took AZ out of the likely Biden column. I've been hearing it's not a done deal.

ABC never had AZ in the Biden column. Fake news from the right wing twitter trolls.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:28 PM   #6487
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I thought Fox was the only one to call AZ?
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:31 PM   #6488
Drake
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Fox and Rahm Emmanuel on the ABC broadcast last night (and they kept correcting him...it was kind of funny. It became a bit of a running joke every time AZ came up.)
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:36 PM   #6489
ISiddiqui
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Trump's lead in PA is under 380k with 1mil+ mail in ballots yet to be counted.
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Last edited by ISiddiqui : 11-04-2020 at 02:38 PM.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:39 PM   #6490
miami_fan
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This scene I am seeing of the counting location in Detroit is insane.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:40 PM   #6491
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Trump campaign claiming victory in PA, lol.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:40 PM   #6492
Lathum
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:43 PM   #6493
JediKooter
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trump declaring Pennsylvania is his
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:44 PM   #6494
I. J. Reilly
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post

Is this the coded message for the lawyers to swarm?
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:45 PM   #6495
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I think I would be fine with Twitter being deleted. Facebook too.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:46 PM   #6496
kingfc22
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Originally Posted by miami_fan View Post
This scene I am seeing of the counting location in Detroit is insane.

This is a cult. Come on AZ, MI, PA. Let's end this nonsense.
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:47 PM   #6497
Thomkal
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Originally Posted by NobodyHere View Post
Somehow we all missed the news that Kanye West has admitted defeat.


But he is running in 2024!

I'll be sure not to vote for him
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:48 PM   #6498
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miami_fan View Post
This scene I am seeing of the counting location in Detroit is insane.

Whats happening there?
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:49 PM   #6499
spleen1015
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PA stuff

https://www.votespa.com/About-Electi...Dashboard.aspx
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Old 11-04-2020, 02:49 PM   #6500
kingfc22
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
Whats happening there?

Bunch of Trumpers trying to gain access to where the votes are being counted saying they are "poll watchers"
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