Werewolf CXXVII -- The Godfather, VILLAGERS WIN - Page 13

Autumn · 03-15-2011, 07:52 PM

I've got a series of inklings, but the best thing I have to go on right now is Jeff. We had a lot of vote movement earlier today, the end result involving moving away from Jeff, with the assistance of Lathum. It could be just random, that Lathum picked one villager over another. But there was enough movement that I'm curious to see what will happen if he's in the mix again.

VOTE JEFF061

JAG · 03-15-2011, 08:15 PM

I'm going to throw this out there for general thought since I've confirmed a few things with Pass. I don't think we're going to find a better candidate than Jeff for today. The way things went down yesterday things look very suspicious for him. That being the case, I can offer an alternative to the road we're wandering down.

Last night I was passed the gun and canoli.

I confirmed that even if NKed the kill will go off. With Danny being revealed as Salvatore, assuming that the guy who started with the gun and canoli passed one to him as was talked about, this means that even if killed the items will be passed along. We can cut out a lynch that looks like it could well be one-sided and have a more useful day of voting if I off him and we act like he isn't part of the vote, and we will remove this potential kill mechanism from the wolves using it on a sure villager instead of this bring a reasonable guess.

Obviously I won't go forward with this plan if there is general disagreement about it, but I think the positives are worth it myself.

JAG · 03-15-2011, 08:17 PM

Also, if you get the gun and canoli and don't use the kill, you can't exercise it even if you get them again. Probably not a big deal to know, but I thought I would get all the info about it out.

Autumn · 03-15-2011, 08:23 PM

I'm not sure why people are painting this lynch vote as a done deal. When I voted I think there were 2 votes on Jeff, and 2 or 3 votes on other people. It's kind of weirding me out that people are casting it as a runaway.

So with that I don't really feel it's certain enough to use a kill on the guy. I was interested in seeing how he and others reacted to the votes on him. He's just one suspicion I have. And while I feel good about JAG, I think this could be a bad idea.

jeff061 · 03-15-2011, 08:36 PM

From what I've seen I'm up 3 to 1 now and discussion on anyone buy me is relatively quiet.

Lathum sure as hell didn't do us any favors(accidential or not) voting for the person that wasn't me. But that's all he did guys, vote for someone that wasn't me. Let's not make this a slam dunk yet

.

I'm just not up for parsing through for other candidates tonight. I'll take a closer look tomorrow morning.

Autumn · 03-15-2011, 08:46 PM

Three to one isn't much with 15 people left. Frankly, when people try to paint a vote as a runaway, it normally means they're hoping to get people to start voting elsewhere, because we always hate a runaway.

I'm curious as hell as to whether Jeff is a wolf, but I'm not sure we want to use a kill to find out. That's about the same as tying the vote, and giving the wolves an extra day. Which JAG, you seemed all right with tying the vote too. What's the rush? It seems to me in this rule set, the longer we can stretch it out the better the village gets.

CrimsonFox · 03-15-2011, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

I'm going to throw this out there for general thought since I've confirmed a few things with Pass. I don't think we're going to find a better candidate than Jeff for today. The way things went down yesterday things look very suspicious for him. That being the case, I can offer an alternative to the road we're wandering down.

Last night I was passed the gun and canoli.

I confirmed that even if NKed the kill will go off. With Danny being revealed as Salvatore, assuming that the guy who started with the gun and canoli passed one to him as was talked about, this means that even if killed the items will be passed along. We can cut out a lynch that looks like it could well be one-sided and have a more useful day of voting if I off him and we act like he isn't part of the vote, and we will remove this potential kill mechanism from the wolves using it on a sure villager instead of this bring a reasonable guess.

Obviously I won't go forward with this plan if there is general disagreement about it, but I think the positives are worth it myself.

I confirm that JAG is indeed the person I passed the gun to. And that was after changing my mind.

Surprised he got the canoli.

CrimsonFox · 03-15-2011, 08:56 PM

Incidently JAG you should play the lottery today.

CrimsonFox · 03-15-2011, 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Also, if you get the gun and canoli and don't use the kill, you can't exercise it even if you get them again. Probably not a big deal to know, but I thought I would get all the info about it out.

So wait, are you saying that if you don't use the kill now, that the items don't work for the rest of the game? Or just that you yourself can never use them again.

JAG · 03-15-2011, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

Three to one isn't much with 15 people left. Frankly, when people try to paint a vote as a runaway, it normally means they're hoping to get people to start voting elsewhere, because we always hate a runaway.

I'm curious as hell as to whether Jeff is a wolf, but I'm not sure we want to use a kill to find out. That's about the same as tying the vote, and giving the wolves an extra day. Which JAG, you seemed all right with tying the vote too. What's the rush? It seems to me in this rule set, the longer we can stretch it out the better the village gets.

First, let me clear something up. I was not trying to make a tie. I was more ok than most were with this one because I felt like Jeff was more worthy of a vote than saldana was. I will say I don't think ties are as bad as we've been discussing. We're better off lynching more people than the wolves are night-killing because they will hit a villager 100% of the time whereas each lynch gives us a chance at taking out a wolf. And yes, I understand what you're saying about us having more information with more votes, but I don't think it's quite the completely unbalanced scale we've been discussing.

But there was another reason I went with my vote. I wanted to see how Jeff would react to a close vote because I knew he was in the thread as it was close. He didn't seem particularly worried at all. Now toss in Lathum's comment about being worried about a tie (he obviously wasn't very worried at all since a. he knew the vote was actually 8-6 without other double vote mechanisms in play b. if they were both villagers having them both lynched would've been perfect for him). Maybe he just wanted to set up a vote on me today for being 'for' a tie. Toss it all together and I don't think it's a good picture for him. I think there's more reason for urgency today as well, but I don't know if it would be a good idea to say why. But suffice to say, if he were to turn up as not a wolf, I know with near 100% certainty who I would vote for the following day (and again I won't say right now, sorry for being mysterious at this point).

JAG · 03-15-2011, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

So wait, are you saying that if you don't use the kill now, that the items don't work for the rest of the game? Or just that you yourself can never use them again.

Just that I can't use them. Same as Clemenzi who started the game with them and anyone else.

jeff061 · 03-15-2011, 09:06 PM

You keep saying I didn't seem particulary worried. Did anyone else at all get that vibe from me? At all?

Or by worried you mean overly emotional and yelling at everyone? Yeah, I try not to get that. This game doesn't work out well if you get too emotional

.

Zinto · 03-15-2011, 09:08 PM

I am torn on this. Using the gun and canoli would take them out of the game and take away a free kill for the wolves if they ever get their hands on them, that being said I feel as though prolonging the game is in the villages best interest. I am not experienced at all in this game so if some other veteran players believe Jag should do it then by all means go ahead.

Zinto · 03-15-2011, 09:09 PM

Dola:

We also can't be a hundred percent sure that Jeff is a wolf so that makes it even more of a riskier play in my estimation.

CrimsonFox · 03-15-2011, 09:13 PM

I understand the mysteriousness as you are trying to avoid a NK. As for the urgency, hell yes we're in trouble. Reason is because the deck is stacked against us. There are so many ways to kill people in this game that the villagers might be going 3 at a time. Granted I don't know if that's the reason YOU were thinking JAG. As for using the items, do whatever your gut tells you. If you aren't getting ANY pings on who is a wolf then of course I wouldn't.

Autumn · 03-15-2011, 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

First, let me clear something up. I was not trying to make a tie. I was more ok than most were with this one because I felt like Jeff was more worthy of a vote than saldana was. I will say I don't think ties are as bad as we've been discussing. We're better off lynching more people than the wolves are night-killing because they will hit a villager 100% of the time whereas each lynch gives us a chance at taking out a wolf. And yes, I understand what you're saying about us having more information with more votes, but I don't think it's quite the completely unbalanced scale we've been discussing.

But there was another reason I went with my vote. I wanted to see how Jeff would react to a close vote because I knew he was in the thread as it was close. He didn't seem particularly worried at all. Now toss in Lathum's comment about being worried about a tie (he obviously wasn't very worried at all since a. he knew the vote was actually 8-6 without other double vote mechanisms in play b. if they were both villagers having them both lynched would've been perfect for him). Maybe he just wanted to set up a vote on me today for being 'for' a tie. Toss it all together and I don't think it's a good picture for him. I think there's more reason for urgency today as well, but I don't know if it would be a good idea to say why. But suffice to say, if he were to turn up as not a wolf, I know with near 100% certainty who I would vote for the following day (and again I won't say right now, sorry for being mysterious at this point).

I agree with the assessment of Lathum and Jeff's play there at the end. Just probing you a bit ;-)

We got lucky with Luca's move. I have a good feeling we'd be lucky with offing Jeff, as well, and it's certainly a way to turn the tables and put ourselves in a good position. I'm just worried we might put ourselves in a hole if we're wrong. Luca could make a bad kill, or we could have a tie or some other random kill and end up killing three villagers in a day.

CrimsonFox · 03-15-2011, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061

You keep saying I didn't seem particulary worried. Did anyone else at all get that vibe from me? At all?

Or by worried you mean overly emotional and yelling at everyone? Yeah, I try not to get that. This game doesn't work out well if you get too emotional

.

Yes Jeff, I got that vibe. YOu were like..."Oh. I'm being voted for. I don't think I'll care. Blah."

Autumn · 03-15-2011, 09:15 PM

I'm out for the night. Keep figuring it out guys ;-)

CrimsonFox · 03-15-2011, 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061

This game doesn't work out well if you get too emotional

.

NOW someone tells me.

jeff061 · 03-15-2011, 09:18 PM

You'd figure it out when you got burnt out

.

mckerney · 03-15-2011, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

I'm going to throw this out there for general thought since I've confirmed a few things with Pass. I don't think we're going to find a better candidate than Jeff for today. The way things went down yesterday things look very suspicious for him. That being the case, I can offer an alternative to the road we're wandering down.

Last night I was passed the gun and canoli.

I confirmed that even if NKed the kill will go off. With Danny being revealed as Salvatore, assuming that the guy who started with the gun and canoli passed one to him as was talked about, this means that even if killed the items will be passed along. We can cut out a lynch that looks like it could well be one-sided and have a more useful day of voting if I off him and we act like he isn't part of the vote, and we will remove this potential kill mechanism from the wolves using it on a sure villager instead of this bring a reasonable guess.

Obviously I won't go forward with this plan if there is general disagreement about it, but I think the positives are worth it myself.

I was the one who passed you the canoli last night.

jeff061 · 03-15-2011, 09:22 PM

Out of curiosity, what was the logic behind passing to Jag? Just a good vibe on him or anything more concrete?

mckerney · 03-15-2011, 09:26 PM

Good vibe, I don't have a role that would give me anything more concrete to go on.

JAG · 03-15-2011, 09:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I understand the mysteriousness as you are trying to avoid a NK. As for the urgency, hell yes we're in trouble. Reason is because the deck is stacked against us. There are so many ways to kill people in this game that the villagers might be going 3 at a time. Granted I don't know if that's the reason YOU were thinking JAG. As for using the items, do whatever your gut tells you. If you aren't getting ANY pings on who is a wolf then of course I wouldn't.

I agree with you in theory, but there's a more specific reason as well. It might be stupid for me to keep it to myself for now, but I think it might be best. I will reveal my thinking post-deadline more than likely. I still stand by my thought of killing Jeff and voting for other candidates today, but I would prefer to hear from more people to see if the general populace agrees.

mckerney · 03-15-2011, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

I agree with you in theory, but there's a more specific reason as well. It might be stupid for me to keep it to myself for now, but I think it might be best. I will reveal my thinking post-deadline more than likely. I still stand by my thought of killing Jeff and voting for other candidates today, but I would prefer to hear from more people to see if the general populace agrees.

With the early voting going Jeff's way I think it could be worth trying. I'm not sure how long we'll go without lynching him after the suspicion of the late move and Lathum's vote on Saldana. Not sure if it's our best move at this point, but it's certainly not our worst.

JAG · 03-15-2011, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

I was the one who passed you the canoli last night.

Thats pretty random that it was passed to you instead of Salvatore, but I guess it worked out for Clemenzi. With that bit of info, we don't know for sure what happens if I die with the items on me which makes me feel more uneasy about not using them.

JAG · 03-15-2011, 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

NOW someone tells me.

I laughed.

Night all.

CrimsonFox · 03-15-2011, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061

Out of curiosity, what was the logic behind passing to Jag? Just a good vibe on him or anything more concrete?

I already said my reason. He unvoted for me and he didn't have to.

CrimsonFox · 03-15-2011, 09:51 PM

Hi Pass!

Passacaglia · 03-15-2011, 09:54 PM

mckerney · 03-15-2011, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I already said my reason. He unvoted for me and he didn't have to.

I think we both got fairly lucky that we handed off to the same person and someone who is not a wolf.

mckerney · 03-15-2011, 09:57 PM

Or at least does not appear to be a wolf.

Darth Vilus · 03-15-2011, 10:20 PM

Well I'm going to call it a night guys, i have some schoolwork to finish.

Vote tyketime

For the reasons that I've already given and the fact that I don't want it to be a runaway, those don't really tell us that much. if JAG wants to kill jeff there really isn't anything we can do about it (other then telling him not too) and it would be more beneficial for us to look at other candidates if Jeff will be killed anyway.

If JAG decides not to then it's best to just let the lynch go the way it will go.

Darth Vilus · 03-15-2011, 10:20 PM

'Night

jeff061 · 03-15-2011, 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I already said my reason. He unvoted for me and he didn't have to.

Didn't mean to sound accusatory, was honestly just wondering. You've been open about the item from the start.

CrimsonFox · 03-15-2011, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeff061

Didn't mean to sound accusatory, was honestly just wondering. You've been open about the item from the start.

OH, I know, dude.

It didn't sound accusatory. Was just saying I said it before. Not sure why. I think I was going to let you go back and find my post for me then added the other sentence after.

Re: Jag that's my only reasoning so I guess it's just a "good vibe", no real proof.

CrimsonFox · 03-16-2011, 01:34 AM

Day 3: The story so far...

Jeff061 -3- EagleFan (545) bhlloy (591) Autumn (601) <- kinda freaky that Autumn's vote on Jeff 061 was on post 601

tyketime -1- Darth Vilus (633)
Darth Vilus -1- j23 (553)
bhlloy -1- CrimsonFox (560)

MartinD · 03-16-2011, 01:42 AM

I was suspicious of jeff061 before I voted yesterday, and looking back at what happened in the time before deadline yesterday with the knowledge that Lathum is a wolf has only deepened those suspicions.

I'll put this vote out there for now, but will be around at least an hour before deadline to change it if JAG does decide to use his kill option (which I think would be taking a risk, but may be useful to the village further down the line if this ends up being something of a runaway vote on jeff061, which is possible but not certain at this point).

VOTE JEFF061

Narcizo · 03-16-2011, 02:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

Or at least does not appear to be a wolf.

Bingo! How do we know JAG isn't a wolf. Let's assume he is. He doesn't know who handed him the items so if he uses the gun/canoli on a villager without mentioning it he's going to draw an awful lot of heat. He could pass them around to his wolf buddies but then he can't use them and he can't pass both to one person. If there are only three wolves left (which seems the most likely state of affairs, I'll be very annoyed if there's more). If he is a wolf then the wolves won't be able to use the combo tomorrow, as he has to pass it on to two different people, so the next time they can use it (assuming that no more wolves are killed in the interim) would be at the end of day five. If they lose a wolf before then then the whole scheme could be jeopardy. Meanwhile, if JAG is a wolf the easiest way to get a (fairly) suspicion-free kill is to announce it before hand. It buys trust

Just reading the whole thing it looks like the village is being asked to accept that Jeff is the runaway choice for a lynch which isn't my interpretation at all. I think there's plenty other people we might want to take a look at in terms of gaining information. I still don't really get what the case was against Jeff yesterday. I mean I get it now, Lathum picked Saldana instead of Jeff - but I would imagine that a wolf Lathum is more worried of a villager Saldana than a villager Jeff. Unfortunately we've had a server migration at work yesterday so I'll probably be answering phones all bloody day so I don't know how much time I'll have over.

Narcizo · 03-16-2011, 02:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- I see Autumn just made it two again

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Does that mean you think we have two villagers up there?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I dunno what it means yet, but I guess if it is villager-villager it makes your vote suspect since we know there are people in the game whos votes count double

This little exchange kind of makes me think that Jeff and JAG are both villagers but agree that the voting records make a strong case against Jeff. So despite my last post I guess I think JAG looks pretty good (a lot better than me, for example). I think we all want Jeff to be a wolf because then we have something solid to work off of (rather than two days' voting record of villager-villager). But I'm not sure that it's the case. I've looked through the voting record and it does look bad for Jeff. Then again the apparent fixation with making things a two-horse race means that you're always likely to see runs like that. I know that towards the end I had serious doubts about sal being a wolf but by that time the choice was to leave it on him, move it to Jeff (who I didn't really understand the case against) or move it to a third candidate and make it look like a throwaway.

bhlloy · 03-16-2011, 02:52 AM

I have no problems with the DK off Jeff if we feel strongly enough that he's a wolf. I'm wondering where we would think about going with the lynch vote in that case as I don't see a really solid second candidate?

I'm very concerned about the potential of killing multiple villagers if we use the gun/canoli but we have to balance that with the likelihood that the wolves are going to get them eventually and use them against us. I think it's a solid play. I don't buy JAG as a wolf. I don't think he'd be proposing to use them against a guy who is the early lynch candidate, I think the wolves would just hang onto it for a couple of turns and use it against somebody else.

bhlloy · 03-16-2011, 02:56 AM

DOLA - the one thing we would lose with a gun/canoli kill of Jeff is he's a wolf is seeing the vote patterns, which could be very valuable. But assuming JAG is villager, it might be better just to get those items out of the game and take an educated guess (and do something that we are probably going to do anyway)

Narcizo · 03-16-2011, 03:01 AM

Guy that's pinging me most is mckerney with his "trusting Autumn". I know I probably shouldn't get caught up with that phrase so much (mau used it on day one which is a reason why I switched to him) but I really dislike it and think it, maybe not screams but says loudly anyway "wolf".

Narcizo · 03-16-2011, 03:24 AM

If we try and track the movement of the gun and the canoli

Peter Clemenza - starts with both

passes gun to CrimsonFox
passes canoli till mckerney

CrimsonFox passes gun to JAG
mckerney passes canoli to JAG

I don't understand why Clemenza didn't pass one of the items to Danny (Tessio), unless he was worried that lots of people saying that he should was a wolf ploy. I presume he handed them out at random then. Seems strange really.

bhlloy · 03-16-2011, 04:38 AM

It is a little strange, I will give you that. I don't think there's enough wolves left out there for it to be a wolf play but it does raise a question.

If we are leaning towards JAG and CF being villagers it seems to reflect well on McKerney, otherwise why pass a free kill mechanism to a villager when the wolves can probably get both at some point just by the law of averages? Do we think it's possible there's a wolf (or more than one) in that sequence trying to throw us off a little?

CrimsonFox · 03-16-2011, 05:08 AM

I received the gun on Monday. Was that day one/the first pass?

Also, you are forgetting the other possibility. That the Clemenza didn't send any orders in, couldn't log because of work and they went out rendomly.

CrimsonFox · 03-16-2011, 05:10 AM

And I"m sorry I may be missing something? WHY is it obvious that Clemenza HAD to pass it to Tessio? I thought it was possible for either to be a wolf. That would be a reason NOT to pass it to them.

JAG · 03-16-2011, 05:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy

DOLA - the one thing we would lose with a gun/canoli kill of Jeff is he's a wolf is seeing the vote patterns, which could be very valuable. But assuming JAG is villager, it might be better just to get those items out of the game and take an educated guess (and do something that we are probably going to do anyway)

That was the biggest downside I saw as well, but I was wondering if the wolves might just cut Jeff loose and throw a vote or two on him to gain trust, which would ruin some of that benefit. I think the D2 vote would probably be more valuable for analysis.

I wasn't all too sure what to think of you, but my opinion of you has improved with some of your recent posts.

JAG · 03-16-2011, 05:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Just reading the whole thing it looks like the village is being asked to accept that Jeff is the runaway choice for a lynch which isn't my interpretation at all. I think there's plenty other people we might want to take a look at in terms of gaining information.

Who would you suggest as your most likely candidates for wolves and why?

JAG · 03-16-2011, 05:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

And I"m sorry I may be missing something? WHY is it obvious that Clemenza HAD to pass it to Tessio? I thought it was possible for either to be a wolf. That would be a reason NOT to pass it to them.

Well, if Clemenza was a wolf, then obviously we'd be screwed because he would've just passed the gun and canoli to a couple wolves, then those two wolves would've passed them to a single wolf, then that wolf would've made the kill. While Clemenza wouldn't have known that Tessio wasn't a wolf, it would've appeared to be worth the chance that Tessio was a villager because then Tessio could've passed the item back to Clemenza. But who knows, maybe he wasn't sure about Tessio in their PMs and sent them out randomly as a result.

03-15-2011, 08:36 PM	#605
jeff061 Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: MA	From what I've seen I'm up 3 to 1 now and discussion on anyone buy me is relatively quiet. Lathum sure as hell didn't do us any favors(accidential or not) voting for the person that wasn't me. But that's all he did guys, vote for someone that wasn't me. Let's not make this a slam dunk yet . I'm just not up for parsing through for other candidates tonight. I'll take a closer look tomorrow morning. __________________

03-15-2011, 09:06 PM	#612
jeff061 Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: MA	You keep saying I didn't seem particulary worried. Did anyone else at all get that vibe from me? At all? Or by worried you mean overly emotional and yelling at everyone? Yeah, I try not to get that. This game doesn't work out well if you get too emotional . __________________

03-15-2011, 09:18 PM	#620
jeff061 Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: MA	You'd figure it out when you got burnt out . __________________

03-15-2011, 09:22 PM	#622
jeff061 Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: MA	Out of curiosity, what was the logic behind passing to Jag? Just a good vibe on him or anything more concrete? __________________

03-15-2011, 09:54 PM	#630
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Yo.

03-15-2011, 07:52 PM	#601
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I've got a series of inklings, but the best thing I have to go on right now is Jeff. We had a lot of vote movement earlier today, the end result involving moving away from Jeff, with the assistance of Lathum. It could be just random, that Lathum picked one villager over another. But there was enough movement that I'm curious to see what will happen if he's in the mix again. VOTE JEFF061

03-15-2011, 08:15 PM	#602
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	I'm going to throw this out there for general thought since I've confirmed a few things with Pass. I don't think we're going to find a better candidate than Jeff for today. The way things went down yesterday things look very suspicious for him. That being the case, I can offer an alternative to the road we're wandering down. Last night I was passed the gun and canoli. I confirmed that even if NKed the kill will go off. With Danny being revealed as Salvatore, assuming that the guy who started with the gun and canoli passed one to him as was talked about, this means that even if killed the items will be passed along. We can cut out a lynch that looks like it could well be one-sided and have a more useful day of voting if I off him and we act like he isn't part of the vote, and we will remove this potential kill mechanism from the wolves using it on a sure villager instead of this bring a reasonable guess. Obviously I won't go forward with this plan if there is general disagreement about it, but I think the positives are worth it myself.

03-15-2011, 08:17 PM	#603
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Also, if you get the gun and canoli and don't use the kill, you can't exercise it even if you get them again. Probably not a big deal to know, but I thought I would get all the info about it out.

03-15-2011, 08:23 PM	#604
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I'm not sure why people are painting this lynch vote as a done deal. When I voted I think there were 2 votes on Jeff, and 2 or 3 votes on other people. It's kind of weirding me out that people are casting it as a runaway. So with that I don't really feel it's certain enough to use a kill on the guy. I was interested in seeing how he and others reacted to the votes on him. He's just one suspicion I have. And while I feel good about JAG, I think this could be a bad idea.

03-15-2011, 08:46 PM	#606
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Three to one isn't much with 15 people left. Frankly, when people try to paint a vote as a runaway, it normally means they're hoping to get people to start voting elsewhere, because we always hate a runaway. I'm curious as hell as to whether Jeff is a wolf, but I'm not sure we want to use a kill to find out. That's about the same as tying the vote, and giving the wolves an extra day. Which JAG, you seemed all right with tying the vote too. What's the rush? It seems to me in this rule set, the longer we can stretch it out the better the village gets.

03-15-2011, 08:56 PM	#608
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	Incidently JAG you should play the lottery today.

03-15-2011, 09:08 PM	#613
Zinto College Starter Join Date: Jan 2011	I am torn on this. Using the gun and canoli would take them out of the game and take away a free kill for the wolves if they ever get their hands on them, that being said I feel as though prolonging the game is in the villages best interest. I am not experienced at all in this game so if some other veteran players believe Jag should do it then by all means go ahead.

03-15-2011, 09:09 PM	#614
Zinto College Starter Join Date: Jan 2011	Dola: We also can't be a hundred percent sure that Jeff is a wolf so that makes it even more of a riskier play in my estimation.

03-15-2011, 09:13 PM	#615
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	I understand the mysteriousness as you are trying to avoid a NK. As for the urgency, hell yes we're in trouble. Reason is because the deck is stacked against us. There are so many ways to kill people in this game that the villagers might be going 3 at a time. Granted I don't know if that's the reason YOU were thinking JAG. As for using the items, do whatever your gut tells you. If you aren't getting ANY pings on who is a wolf then of course I wouldn't.

03-15-2011, 09:15 PM	#618
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I'm out for the night. Keep figuring it out guys ;-)

03-15-2011, 09:26 PM	#623
mckerney Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	Good vibe, I don't have a role that would give me anything more concrete to go on.

03-15-2011, 09:51 PM	#629
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	Hi Pass!

03-15-2011, 09:57 PM	#632
mckerney Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	Or at least does not appear to be a wolf.

03-15-2011, 10:20 PM	#633
Darth Vilus College Benchwarmer Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: SoCal	Well I'm going to call it a night guys, i have some schoolwork to finish. Vote tyketime For the reasons that I've already given and the fact that I don't want it to be a runaway, those don't really tell us that much. if JAG wants to kill jeff there really isn't anything we can do about it (other then telling him not too) and it would be more beneficial for us to look at other candidates if Jeff will be killed anyway. If JAG decides not to then it's best to just let the lynch go the way it will go. __________________ "Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise

03-15-2011, 10:20 PM	#634
Darth Vilus College Benchwarmer Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: SoCal	'Night __________________ "Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise

03-16-2011, 01:34 AM	#637
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	Day 3: The story so far... Jeff061 -3- EagleFan (545) bhlloy (591) Autumn (601) <- kinda freaky that Autumn's vote on Jeff 061 was on post 601 tyketime -1- Darth Vilus (633) Darth Vilus -1- j23 (553) bhlloy -1- CrimsonFox (560)

03-16-2011, 01:42 AM	#638
MartinD High School Varsity Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: East Lothian, Scotland	I was suspicious of jeff061 before I voted yesterday, and looking back at what happened in the time before deadline yesterday with the knowledge that Lathum is a wolf has only deepened those suspicions. I'll put this vote out there for now, but will be around at least an hour before deadline to change it if JAG does decide to use his kill option (which I think would be taking a risk, but may be useful to the village further down the line if this ends up being something of a runaway vote on jeff061, which is possible but not certain at this point). VOTE JEFF061

03-16-2011, 02:52 AM	#641
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	I have no problems with the DK off Jeff if we feel strongly enough that he's a wolf. I'm wondering where we would think about going with the lynch vote in that case as I don't see a really solid second candidate? I'm very concerned about the potential of killing multiple villagers if we use the gun/canoli but we have to balance that with the likelihood that the wolves are going to get them eventually and use them against us. I think it's a solid play. I don't buy JAG as a wolf. I don't think he'd be proposing to use them against a guy who is the early lynch candidate, I think the wolves would just hang onto it for a couple of turns and use it against somebody else.

03-16-2011, 02:56 AM	#642
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	DOLA - the one thing we would lose with a gun/canoli kill of Jeff is he's a wolf is seeing the vote patterns, which could be very valuable. But assuming JAG is villager, it might be better just to get those items out of the game and take an educated guess (and do something that we are probably going to do anyway)

03-16-2011, 03:01 AM	#643
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	Guy that's pinging me most is mckerney with his "trusting Autumn". I know I probably shouldn't get caught up with that phrase so much (mau used it on day one which is a reason why I switched to him) but I really dislike it and think it, maybe not screams but says loudly anyway "wolf".

03-16-2011, 03:24 AM	#644
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	If we try and track the movement of the gun and the canoli Peter Clemenza - starts with both passes gun to CrimsonFox passes canoli till mckerney CrimsonFox passes gun to JAG mckerney passes canoli to JAG I don't understand why Clemenza didn't pass one of the items to Danny (Tessio), unless he was worried that lots of people saying that he should was a wolf ploy. I presume he handed them out at random then. Seems strange really.

03-16-2011, 04:38 AM	#645
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	It is a little strange, I will give you that. I don't think there's enough wolves left out there for it to be a wolf play but it does raise a question. If we are leaning towards JAG and CF being villagers it seems to reflect well on McKerney, otherwise why pass a free kill mechanism to a villager when the wolves can probably get both at some point just by the law of averages? Do we think it's possible there's a wolf (or more than one) in that sequence trying to throw us off a little?

03-16-2011, 05:08 AM	#646
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	I received the gun on Monday. Was that day one/the first pass? Also, you are forgetting the other possibility. That the Clemenza didn't send any orders in, couldn't log because of work and they went out rendomly.

03-16-2011, 05:10 AM	#647
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	And I"m sorry I may be missing something? WHY is it obvious that Clemenza HAD to pass it to Tessio? I thought it was possible for either to be a wolf. That would be a reason NOT to pass it to them.

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