College Football Week 14 (Conference Championship Week) discussion

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Lathum

May as well be the Kibbles and Bits bowl. Boise beating Oklahoma is a huge story, Utah beating Alabama likewise, but whoever wins this game it means nothing because they didn't defy any odds and prove they belong.

No, but their conferences will appreciate the payday more than the kibbles they'd have otherwise received.

[Radii]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagar...terstitialskip

Texas Strength of Schedule: #44
Cincinnati Strength of Schedule: #63

/shrug.

[Young Drachma]

I think I'll run my simulated national championship again this year using NCAA10 on the PS3. But instead of doing like I did last year where I had every bowl eligible team participate in the playoffs, I'm going to do some sort of cutoff. I dunno if it ought to be 8, 12 or 16 though.

8 would be the easiest, of course, but I kinda like the idea of mixing it up a bit.

[RedKingGold]

As a casual college football fan, I'll probably forget that Boise State and TCU are playing, when they're playing, or even if they're playing by the end of the week.

[Radii]

http://www.solecismic.com/frontier/sos9.php

Cincinnati SoS: #42
Texas SoS: #44



GBE College Football Ratings

Texas SoS: 46
Cincinnati: 86


College Football Polls - CBSSports.com 120, BCS and AP Top 25

Texas SoS: 30
Cincinnati SoS: 42


College Football Power Ratings - College FB Strength of Schedule Power Rating on TeamRankings.com

Texas SoS: 31
Cincinnati SoS: 42


Seriously, numbers people. Find some!

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Radii

http://www.solecismic.com/frontier/sos9.php

Cincinnati SoS: #42
Texas SoS: #44



GBE College Football Ratings

Texas SoS: 46
Cincinnati: 86


College Football Polls - CBSSports.com 120, BCS and AP Top 25

Texas SoS: 30
Cincinnati SoS: 42


College Football Power Ratings - College FB Strength of Schedule Power Rating on TeamRankings.com

Texas SoS: 31
Cincinnati SoS: 42


Seriously, numbers people. Find some!

Here's some of the data I had:

Texas Opponents Record (74-61) Cincinnati Opponents Record (56-61) TCU Opponents Record (56-62) Boise State Opponents Record (58-73)

Cincinnati Opp. Opponents Record (273-414) Texas Opp. Opponents Record (200-293) TCU Opp. Opponents Record (200-285) Boise State Opp. Opponents Record (244-311)

SOS: Texas 29, Cincinnati 83, TCU 78, Boise State 87

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by MJ4H

Arkansas vs. East Carolina in Liberty Bowl is official now.

Lot of Hogs fans are gonna travel for that one.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

do away with silly preseason rankings

Bingo. All it proves is that system is about who starts the highest. (what happen to pre-season Top 5 Ole Miss? Oklahoma? )


Hopefully we can get at least a "spilt" national championship (yeah, I know, the AP doesn't matter).

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Radii

USATODAY.com

Texas Strength of Schedule: #44
Cincinnati Strength of Schedule: #63

/shrug.

Sagarin is a shitty system to use. He throws in all the schools including FCS into his formula. So if one school played a good FCS school like Southern Illinois while another played a bad one like Alabama State, it would have a large effect on their SOS. The fact is that no top schools would have trouble beating any of them.

So if you're in a conference where the average of teams are in the 50's vs the 60's, your SOS will be vastly superior. Problem is though that top schools rarely lose to schools outside the Top 30. With those top 30 schools being the only real threat, they should have much more weight in the system.

For instance, take these 3 game schedules.

Schedule A
1) Florida
2) Western Kentucky
3) Idaho

Schedule B
1) Texas A&M
2) Minnesota
3) Virginia

Now schedule B would be the tougher SOS. However, schedule A would be tougher because Florida is the only team in that list of 6 that poses any threat to beat a top school.

That's why Sagarin and other systems are not real great judges. They make a distinction in playing the 60th best team vs playing the 70th best team when it really matters little to the top ranked team. I know they factor in various things for top 10 and top 30, but it's not nearly strong enough.

I do find some irony in the fact that computer systems like this are used so much in the BCS while completely ignored in the selection of the NCAA tournament. Might as well put Vince McMahon in charge.

[MJ4H]

Originally Posted by Izulde

Lot of Hogs fans are gonna travel for that one.

Bought my tickets like Tuesday.

I'm pretty sure we will have an overwhelming majority of the fans there and it will sellout. Say, 50,000 Arkansas fans and 12,000 ECU fans would be my guess.

[tarcone]

Hey Jon whats the bet?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Anybody want to set the over/under on the number of non-BCS games that have higher ratings than both Boise/TCU and GT/Iowa?

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Cincy is the real victim in all this. do away with silly preseason rankings and they are playing for the title. Texas has an insanely weak schedule.

As others have posted, Texas had the better SOS. Cincinnati at least gets to play one of the elite teams in college football for thier bowl game. TCU just got screwed. If something like a 2 loss USC team was around to play, then I think they get a far more interesting match up.

[Radii]

Rainmaker, the last time this discussion cameup in the week 11 threads, you replied that Cinci's schedule only got tougher and Texas' did not. Now that the end of the season is here and this isn't what happened, all of the systems are flawed?

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - College Football Week 10 discussion


Seriously, your case is extremely subjective and your reasoning changes just so you can carry on the argument. I have no doubt in my mind that if any of these numbers supported your case that you'd be all over them as proof that you're right. Its just really, really tiresome to read through months of college football threads and see you have zero positive to say about anything in the sport. You've already admitted that you don't have a favorite team and just kinda follow the sport. But as much as you hate the current environment, I'd seriously recommend you just stop following the sport.

Everyone else here that has similar feelings about the BCS system finds other things to enjoy within college football and that is why they're here I assume. If you're not able to do that and contribute anything at all other than the shit you spout off non stop, why follow it?

[Radii]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Anybody want to set the over/under on the number of non-BCS games that have higher ratings than both Boise/TCU and GT/Iowa?

just off the top of my head without even looking at the matchups in depth... 6 as a reasonable O/U line?

[Logan]

What the hell...just booked a flight into Tampa for the St. Pete's bowl. I guess a few days in Florida during December can't be too bad.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Radii

just off the top of my head without even looking at the matchups in depth... 6 as a reasonable O/U line?

Maybe a tad high (I'm thinking 5 off hand) but close. To set one for real we have to look at what shows are being counterprogrammed I guess.

Off hand I'd say this might be the least appealing set of matchups overall I can remember in the BCS era. Both the BCS games as well as the rest of the bowls, just not a lot this year that makes me go "dang that might be good viewing".

Of the December games, Utah-Cal looked pretty good, Kentucky-Clemson could be, and maybe Oklahoma-Stanford. In January I thought Penn State-LSU could be good, possibly Oklahoma State-Ole Miss.

And just guessing, I wonder if the largest opening line margin will be Arkansas over East Carolina.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Matthean

As others have posted, Texas had the better SOS. Cincinnati at least gets to play one of the elite teams in college football for thier bowl game. TCU just got screwed. If something like a 2 loss USC team was around to play, then I think they get a far more interesting match up.

Who is Texas's best win?

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Radii

just off the top of my head without even looking at the matchups in depth... 6 as a reasonable O/U line?

I know at least a few people who will be watching and hoping that Georgia Tech shreds Iowa's defense

Seriously, I think that will get some national attention and some decent number just because Georgia Tech has a fun offense to watch. I agree that the Boise/TCU will do poorly in the ratings.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Radii

Rainmaker, the last time this discussion cameup in the week 11 threads, you replied that Cinci's schedule only got tougher and Texas' did not. Now that the end of the season is here and this isn't what happened, all of the systems are flawed?

Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - College Football Week 10 discussion


Seriously, your case is extremely subjective and your reasoning changes just so you can carry on the argument. I have no doubt in my mind that if any of these numbers supported your case that you'd be all over them as proof that you're right. Its just really, really tiresome to read through months of college football threads and see you have zero positive to say about anything in the sport. You've already admitted that you don't have a favorite team and just kinda follow the sport. But as much as you hate the current environment, I'd seriously recommend you just stop following the sport.

Everyone else here that has similar feelings about the BCS system finds other things to enjoy within college football and that is why they're here I assume. If you're not able to do that and contribute anything at all other than the shit you spout off non stop, why follow it?

Of course my views are subjective as that's what the system requires since play on the field doesn't determine a champion. Computer rankings are subjective as well as they are computed using statistics/data that the creator felt are important. I'd say the same crap if TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, Florida, etc got into the NC game instead of Texas. It's absurd to have undefeated teams not have chances to play for championships. It's the only sport in the world that does it this way. I'm just pointing out the absurdity of the whole thing.

As for schedules, I feel that if I was a college football team competing for a NC, I would rather have the Texas schedule vs the Cincinnati schedule. There are more games on the Cincy schedule that pose threats for a loss.

I'd also add if you're going to use rating systems for SOS and other factors, it should be more advanced than what is out there. There are systems that do judge efficiency and factor in score and other game factors. Many of the computer polls being used are heavily flawed and outdated.

And drop the crap about this being about football. The last 5 pages have been about television ratings, how well a school draws, and what a sponsor would want to see. It's more an economics threat than a football one now.

[tarcone]

I really like the match ups. Iowas defense vs. GTs option? Great match up. iowa will be healthy. This will be a great game.
Boise/TCU. Im watching. High flying offenses and a great defense.
I like these match ups better then the Alabama/Texas game.

I really like the PSU/LSU match up.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Who is Texas's best win?

Oklahoma State without Dez Bryant.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I'd also add if you're going to use rating systems for SOS and other factors, it should be more advanced than what is out there. There are systems that do judge efficiency and factor in score and other game factors. Many of the computer polls being used are heavily flawed and outdated.

This is because of public outcry over the years. Every time the computers don't line up with what the voters and fans expect then it's the computers that are the problem and they try to find ways to change them to make them closer to the human polls. Because of that, we now have neutered computer polls.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I know at least a few people who will be watching and hoping that Georgia Tech shreds Iowa's defense

Seriously, I think that will get some national attention and some decent number just because Georgia Tech has a fun offense to watch. I agree that the Boise/TCU will do poorly in the ratings.

Be curious to see what the line is for that one. Despite their flaws, I think GT has too much speed for Iowa. I predict 24-13 GT.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Be curious to see what the line is for that one. Despite their flaws, I think GT has too much speed for Iowa. I predict 24-13 GT.

Iowa handles speed. Check their Bowl history against speedy SEC teams in recent years (LSU, Florida, South Carolina).

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Iowa handles speed. Check their Bowl history against speedy SEC teams in recent years (LSU, Florida, South Carolina).

It won't be about speed, it'll be about discipline. If a defense plays virtually flawless assignment football then the triple option can be stopped. If a defense doesn't ... well, it can be potent

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

It won't be about speed, it'll be about discipline. If a defense plays virtually flawless assignment football then the triple option can be stopped. If a defense doesn't ... well, it can be potent

That is Iowa in a nutshell. They play a very conservative style. I think this is a great match up.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I know at least a few people who will be watching and hoping that Georgia Tech shreds Iowa's defense

I welcome your support!

[Atocep]

Preparing for the triple option when you haven't seen it all year isn't easy. If forced to pick right now I'd probably take GT by 10.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Preparing for the triple option when you haven't seen it all year isn't easy. If forced to pick right now I'd probably take GT by 10.

They have a month to get ready...

[Recoil]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Be curious to see what the line is for that one. Despite their flaws, I think GT has too much speed for Iowa. I predict 24-13 GT.

GT has opened up as 3.5 favorites.

Also of note:

UF -10.5
Alabama -4
TCU -4

[CU Tiger]

I wont rant because we did it to ourselves.
But it sucks that Clemson can lose the ACC Championship game and drop to the 5th ACC Bowl Tie and have two teams they beat head to head jump them.

A rematch of the 06 Music City Bowl with Kentucky....wow.
Can't wait.
Nashville is a nice town to visit, but this is now an 8pm game which is gonna be cold as hell.

I will be there, just because it is my last time to see CJ Spiller play in a Clemson Uniform...but it sucks. John Swofford can lick the sweat out of the bottom of my ass crack for allowing this.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Lathum

They have a month to get ready...

But only 8 practices and 10 additional hours of organized meetings.

[Lathum]

Cincinnati continues to get no respect.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

But only 8 practices and 10 additional hours of organized meetings.

RIIIIGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHTTTTTTTTTTTTT.........

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Cincinnati continues to get no respect.

They won the Mountain East.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

They have a month to get ready...

The scout team and film really compares to seeing it in person?

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Oklahoma State without Dez Bryant.

It's still a 27 point victory on the road against a ranked team. Let's be honest, Cincinnati gave up an average of 36.5 points per game in the last four. Yes, they won all of the them because that offense can score on pretty much anybody, but any credible team they have played, ie Pittsburgh and WV is by default in the game due to Cincinnati's D. Heck, they almost let Conn. come back and win the game by giving up 35 in a half to a 4-5 team. It's very hard to argue that they should be deemed worthy of a title shot over other teams.

I actually wished they would just go 1/2, 3/4, 5/6 for match ups as well as they could. It actually works really well this year with Oregon and OSU being 7-8. Cincinnati vs. TCU would of been a hell of a fun ball game.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The scout team and film really compares to seeing it in person?

Michigan and then USC had plenty of time to scout out Vince Young. Oh wait....

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Matthean

It's still a 27 point victory on the road against a ranked team. Let's be honest, Cincinnati gave up an average of 36.5 points per game in the last four. Yes, they won all of the them because that offense can score on pretty much anybody, but any credible team they have played, ie Pittsburgh and WV is by default in the game due to Cincinnati's D. Heck, they almost let Conn. come back and win the game by giving up 35 in a half to a 4-5 team. It's very hard to argue that they should be deemed worthy of a title shot over other teams.

I actually wished they would just go 1/2, 3/4, 5/6 for match ups as well as they could. It actually works really well this year with Oregon and OSU being 7-8. Cincinnati vs. TCU would of been a hell of a fun ball game.

A team ranked based on having the best WR in college football. They are not nearly the team they were with Dez. Take their 27-0 loss to Oklahoma. An Oklahoma team that lost to BYU who got throttled by TCU in Provo.

I don't know if Cincinnati is better than Texas, but I do believe their schedule is tougher to run the table on than what Texas had. Their defense is horrible but that offense is virtually unstoppable. But again, we're arguing about how the team looks on paper and not on the field which is the problem.

TCU/Cincy would be a good game. I'm on record as believing that TCU is the 2nd best team in the country. They don't have the star power of Alabama, but they do remind me a lot of them with their balance on both sides of the ball. I think they'd give Alabama a much better game than almost anyone. Texas won't be able to score on Alabama and I think Alabama would get enough stops on Cincy to win that one as well.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Matthean

Michigan and then USC had plenty of time to scout out Vince Young. Oh wait....

Georgia and Oklahoma handled WVU's offense damn well also.

[MizzouRah]

We play Navy? Um.... ok....

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Radii

http://www.solecismic.com/frontier/sos9.php

Cincinnati SoS: #42
Texas SoS: #44

GBE College Football Ratings

Texas SoS: 46
Cincinnati: 86


College Football Polls - CBSSports.com 120, BCS and AP Top 25

Texas SoS: 30
Cincinnati SoS: 42


College Football Power Ratings - College FB Strength of Schedule Power Rating on TeamRankings.com

Texas SoS: 31
Cincinnati SoS: 42


Seriously, numbers people. Find some!

If you want to do numbers, Cincinnati was 2nd in the computer rankings.

[ISiddiqui]

NO! You can only use the numbers they want to use!

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I hope your tinfoil hat fits well. You really think bowl organizers are going to agree behind closed doors to have the worst rated bowl in the history of the BCS simply to cover for the BCS conferences?

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yup. Another reason why the BCS system is a pile of crap in particular AFTER it does its primary job of setting up #1 and #2. Because after that, the bowls do the picking, and they're only concerned with money. I don't have a problem with the bowls doing what makes sense for them economically, it's just disappointing as a college football fan that the system is set up to make money the primary consideration for bowl destinations instead of on field merit.

For all the talk of this, the organizers did pick Boise St. over Virginia Tech. It's not picking Boise over Iowa or Notre Dame's fanbase, but it is at least a nod to on-field merit over money.

Originally Posted by Lathum

Umm, what?

UC won on the road against a very good Pitt team and also won on the road against a very good Oregon state team.

Both those wins are better then any single win Texas had. To say Texas is unequivocally the better team is ludicrous.

They looked better when I saw them against Oregon St., and I loved them in the blowout against Rutgers to open the season, but I'm talking about when the spotlight was on and they had 4 straight ABC/ESPN games. They gave up 35 points in the 2nd half to UConn and nearly blew the game, needed a gift of a call to beat West Virginia, gave up 36 points to an Illinois team that was averaging 17.5 against FBS teams and then gave up 44 points and won on a botched XP against a Pitt team that isn't actually all that good. Good DL, solid RB and one good WR, but Pitt wouldn't be favored against Oklahoma or Nebraska, and would be giving at most 3 to Texas Tech and Oklahoma St.

There really isn't much of a difference between those 6 teams, and that's why almost all the computers have Texas' schedule equal to or better than Cincy's (UCF and Wyoming also ended up better than they're given credit for.) The same people that lambast Texas for the schedule discredit Oklahoma as a good team when they lost 4 games to ranked teams by a combined 11 points (and had one bad game against Texas Tech, a common opponent). Rainmaker also uses a matchup between common opponents (Oklahoma blowout of Ok St) to say Texas' schedule is weak, but we all know where he's coming from at this point.

I was all ready to say Cincy was the better team, I wanted to be able to say the BCS screwed up, but despite Texas looking shaky Cincy looked worse. So while I can't say they are unequivocally the better team, I can say that based off what the two teams have shown Texas would be favored by 7-8 points. Flip where Cincy and Texas are going and there would be a double digit underdog in the national title game.

Originally Posted by RainMaker

A team ranked based on having the best WR in college football. They are not nearly the team they were with Dez.

With Dez Bryant 1-1. Without him 8-2. I thought they would collapse without him too, but the 10 weeks of results showed otherwise.

Originally Posted by Lathum

Cincy is the real victim in all this. do away with silly preseason rankings and they are playing for the title. Texas has an insanely weak schedule.

As for the latter, pretty much every computer ranking says otherwise. The former I find interesting as everyone is saying that because Cincy jumped TCU for #3 they would be playing for the title but it's not the case. The difference is that Cincy is already ahead of Texas in all but 2 (of the BCS-neutered) computer polls, so would only gain .010 in their computer numbers, and .005 in their overall BCS number. TCU meanwhile is behind Texas in 5 of 6, and assuming they went ahead of Texas in all of them they would gain .040 there and .020 overall. Since the two teams were at .8878 and .8836, TCU would actually jump back on top by .9036 to .8928. Then of course both teams would get bumps from the polls, but since Texas is #2 on almost every ballot it wouldn't make a difference between the other two and TCU would be in the title game. Even if only 2 of the 5 moved TCU ahead of Cincy they would be ahead, but by a razor-thin margin (.8936 - .8928) that may have been changed by the polls.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Off hand I'd say this might be the least appealing set of matchups overall I can remember in the BCS era. Both the BCS games as well as the rest of the bowls, just not a lot this year that makes me go "dang that might be good viewing".

Of the December games, Utah-Cal looked pretty good, Kentucky-Clemson could be, and maybe Oklahoma-Stanford. In January I thought Penn State-LSU could be good, possibly Oklahoma State-Ole Miss.

Oregon St-BYU should be a fun early Tuesday night diversion, and Nevada-SMU could be a shootout on Christmas Eve. Miami-Wisconsin on the 29th is two pretty good teams for December, and Dec. 31 Houston-Air Force is always a fun contrast in styles, plus I'm definitely in for seeing Oklahoma's D vs. Gerhart. Jan 1 I could foresee a decent line-up - PSU/LSU at 1, Oregon-Ohio St at 430 (Terrelle Pryor vs. the offense he should be in) and then Cincy/Florida at night - it might turn into a blowout, but between the chance for a UF letdown and getting the chance to see Cincy's offense vs. a good defense it's worth it. Agreed on Ok St/Ole Miss, and while it's dumb Troy-CMU is on Jan. 6th, it will have some offensive fireworks.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

If you want to do numbers, Cincinnati was 2nd in the computer rankings.

And in the ones that include margin of victory (that the creators have shown statistically are more accurate predictors) they fall to 12th.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

For all the talk of this, the organizers did pick Boise St. over Virginia Tech. It's not picking Boise over Iowa or Notre Dame's fanbase, but it is at least a nod to on-field merit over money.

Boise is much, much closer to Arizona than VA Tech.

[SackAttack]

I know there are people saying that TCU/Boise State are getting screwed by being pitted against one another rather than against a team from a "power" conference in a BCS Bowl, but I almost wonder if it wouldn't be counterproductive for their programs if they WERE so pitted.

I mean, you think about it, and what's the line if they lose in such a matchup? "Huh. I knew they had no business on the same field as the big boys." Jon may feel free to substitute his response of choice, as it would probably epitomize the response a little better.

If, on the other hand, they win - as happened in BSU/OU a couple years ago - you have the return to the "gotta schedule the big teams if you want a chance to play for all the marbles" line, as well as a growing reluctance by the big teams to actually schedule your team as opposed to a weaker non-BCS school.

So what you've effectively done is either a) play martyr in sacrificing your ability to advance your program in the hopes that ultimately a level playing field comes around for other teams like yours, or b) choose to be the Gonzaga of college football; always in the mix for a BCS berth, but never much more than that, and only so long as the coach who brought you there doesn't make like Urban Meyer and go to a program where he *does* have a chance to collect all the marbles.

If you beat another midmajor, you're still going to run into difficulties, but you don't necessarily inspire the fear of your program that might make it difficult to schedule power schools in the future, and that might align things in a way you otherwise wouldn't get for a future national title run.

The way the BCS is set up is such that a non-BCS school has practically no chance of playing for the national title in a one-off scenario, but if a non-BCS program can establish itself such that it's nearly always in the mix for *a* BCS bowl, they may gain enough familiarity with the voters to get in after a sustained, several-season run.

It's a long view, and it means that no individual player who goes to such a school has a quality shot of seeing that outcome, but it seems to me like the only way TCU/BSU/future darling gets a shot at the big game under the current setup. That being so, this might be the best matchup either school could hope for, despite appearances of being a slap in the face.

[Kodos]

Although I dislike Saban and have no love for Alabama--good job kicking Florida's ass this weekend.

[Dr. Sak]

I just want to say I agree with BishopMVP