College Football week 14

[Buccaneer]

(4) Head-to-head? Yeah, I guess so, but that was week 2 - may as well have been last year.

lol.

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

VPI97 won't say it, but I will - Virginia Tech got screwed.

By the way, I should emphasize that I said several pages back that Virginia Tech had the next best case for the Championship game after LSU. But the notion that the only reason OU moved up was Stoops "crying to the media" is really silly to me.

[TazFTW]

Early Vegas lines.

USC -14 vs Illinois
Georgia - 8 vs Hawaii
Oklahoma -4.5 vs WVU
Va Tech -1 vs Kansas
LSU -6 vs Ohio St.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

If you'd asked me a month ago, I'd have been thrilled with the Orange Bowl, so I can't really complain, but I did anyway

Exactly...that's why I've rationalized LSU getting the nod. But don't tell me Oklahoma or USC or any other these other deserve to be ahead of us. They don't.

I don't care if you beat Missouri or you beat UCLA or what...all of you others lost to unranked teams and we didn't. We also beat more winning teams that any other team in the country. It sucks that we were treated like a red headed stepchild in the opinion polls.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'm sure a lot of people have read these through already, but ...
http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility

Based on those, this year we had seven automatic qualifiers & just three At-Large teams

Automatics were: Ohio State & LSU, by virtue of being #1 & #2 in the BCS Standings, then conference champs Va Tech, WVU, Oklahoma, and USC, plus Hawaii via the not-auto-but-conf-champ-in-top-12 rule. And that makes 7.

The Rose & Sugar took their replacement picks from the combined pool of non-committed automatic qualifiers plus the teams eligible for an at-large (Georgia, Missouri, Kansas, Arizona St, Florida, Illinois, Boston College, and Clemson.) And the Rose apparently took the first truly At-Large team, since I can't seem to find anything obligates them to take a Big 10 replacement, the Sugar followed suit by taking Georgia, and then the Orange chose Kansas.

So while the Orange sealed Missouri's fate, the Rose in particular seems to have had just as much chance to take them instead of a much lower rated Illinois.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by VPI97

Name value ruled the day in the opinion polls. VT was ranked #1 in the computer polls.

The neutered ELO Chess rankings are an abomination, and Jeff Sagarin has voiced his strong opposition to them. They do not take into account the margin of victory. Three or four weeks ago, Northern Iowa was ranked #12 in them, but they were ranked about 60th in the more accurate method that takes into account the margin of victory. If they're going to use computers as part of the equation, they should allow the algorithms to accurately analyze the strengths of the teams. Right now, if you beat Rice by 1 or by 1,000,000 points the ELO Chess method counts them equally.

[miami_fan]

I know that most of these are insignificant in the title picture but here are all the bowl games

BOWL LOCATION DATE/TIME NETWORK

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia
Utah vs. Navy San Diego Dec. 20, 9 p.m. ESPN HD

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic New Orleans Dec. 21, 8 p.m. ESPN2 HD

Papajohns.com Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati Birmingham, Ala. Dec. 22, 1 p.m. ESPN2 HD


New Mexico
Nevada vs. New Mexico Albuquerque, N.M. Dec. 22, 4:30 p.m. ESPN HD

Pioneer Las Vegas
UCLA vs. BYU Las Vegas Dec. 22, 8 p.m. ESPN HD

Sheraton Hawaii
Boise State vs. East Carolina Honolulu Dec. 23, 8 p.m. ESPN

Motor City
Purdue vs. Central Michigan Detroit Dec. 26, 7:30 p.m. ESPN HD

Pacific Life Holiday
Arizona State vs. Texas San Diego Dec. 27, 8 p.m. ESPN HD

Champs Sports
Boston College vs. Michigan State Orlando, Fla. Dec. 28, 5 p.m. ESPN HD

Texas
TCU vs. Houston Houston Dec. 28, 8 p.m. NFL Network

Emerald
Maryland vs. Oregon State San Francisco Dec. 28, 8:30 p.m. ESPN HD

Meineke Car Care
UConn vs. Wake Forest Charlotte, N.C. Dec. 29, 1 p.m. ESPN HD

AutoZone Liberty
UCF vs. Mississippi State Memphis, Tenn. Dec. 29, 4:30 p.m. ESPN HD

Valero Alamo
Penn State vs. Texas A&M San Antonio Dec. 29, 8 p.m. ESPN HD

PetroSun Independence
Alabama vs. Colorado Shreveport, La. Dec. 30, 8 p.m. ESPN HD

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
California vs. Air Force Fort Worth, Texas Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m. ESPN

Roady's Humanitarian
Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State Boise, Idaho Dec. 31, 2 p.m. ESPN2

Brut Sun
South Florida vs. Oregon El Paso, Texas Dec. 31, 2 p.m. CBS

Gaylord Hotels Music City
Kentucky vs. Florida State Nashville, Tenn. Dec. 31, 4 p.m. ESPN HD

Insight
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State Tempe, Ariz. Dec. 31, 6 p.m. NFL Network

Chick-fil-A
Clemson vs. Auburn Atlanta Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. ESPN HD

Outback
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee Tampa, Fla. Jan. 1, 2008, 11 a.m. ESPN HD

AT&T Cotton
Missouri vs. Arkansas Dallas Jan. 1, 2008, 11:30 a.m. FOX

Gator
Texas Tech vs. Virginia Jacksonville, Fla. Jan. 1, 2008, 1 p.m. CBS

Capital One
Michigan vs. Florida Orlando, Fla. Jan. 1, 2008, 1 p.m. ABC HD

Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Illinois vs. USC Pasadena, Calif. Jan. 1, 2008, 4:30 p.m. ABC HD

Allstate Sugar
Hawaii vs. Georgia New Orleans Jan. 1, 2008, 8:30 p.m. FOX

Tostitos Fiesta
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia Glendale, Ariz. Jan. 2, 2008, 8 p.m. FOX

FedEx Orange
Virginia Tech vs. Kansas Miami Jan. 3, 2008, 8 p.m. FOX

International
Rutgers vs. Ball State Toronto Jan. 5, 2008, Noon ESPN2 HD

GMAC
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa Mobile, Ala. Jan. 6, 2008, 8 p.m. ESPN HD


Allstate BCS Championship Game
LSU vs. Ohio State New Orleans Jan7,2008, 8 p.m. FOX

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by VPI97

Exactly...that's why I've rationalized LSU getting the nod. But don't tell me Oklahoma or USC or any other these other deserve to be ahead of us. They don't.

I don't care if you beat Missouri or you beat UCLA or what...all of you others lost to unranked teams and we didn't. We also beat more winning teams that any other team in the country. It sucks that we were treated like a red headed stepchild in the opinion polls.

Does LSU *deserve* to be ahead of Virginia Tech? No, but unfortunately that doesn't matter, since the pollsters essentially got to choose their championship game, and OSU vs LSU is a more sexy matchup than OSU vs VT - even if they could have (and would have) exploited 4/16 to death for the ratings.

[Toddzilla]

FWIW, someone over on TechSideline crunched the numbers, and..

Even if we had been voted #3 in both the Harris and Coaches polls,
we would still be #3 in the BCS. I know we got jobbed by the human
polls, but in the end, it didn't matter. The gap between LSU, Ohio State and #3 was just too wide.

Say La V

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

So while the Orange sealed Missouri's fate, the Rose in particular seems to have had just as much chance to take them instead of a much lower rated Illinois.

Yeah, but the Rose Bowl, even though not obligated, has always and will probably always make it a Pac 10 / Big 10 game, rankings be damned.

[Swaggs]

So, if we had a +1 game, who would get the other two spots?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

Yeah, but the Rose Bowl, even though not obligated, has always and will probably always make it a Pac 10 / Big 10 game, rankings be damned.

It's kind of strange that the four times that it wasn't Pac 10/Big 10, it was a Big 12 school taking the other slot.

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

So, if we had a +1 game, who would get the other two spots?

If there was a +1, then the bowls would have gotten mushed around, likely pitting OSU vs Virginia Tech and LSU vs Oklahoma, with the winners playing for the MNC. OSU and LSU were solid #1 and #2, but VT was just as solid #3. Oklahoma and Georgia were close at #4 and #5, but Georgia didn't even play for their conference title, much less win it, so Oklahoma would have to be #4.

[Noop]

OU is getting double credit for beating a team twice. It just so happens that the second time around they beat Mizzou who was #1.

That being said Mizzou got screwed. They beat Kansas and should be going to a BCS bowl.

[Lathum]

The best part about this is

NO NOTRE DAME

[Young Drachma]

I had no idea there were so many computer ranking systems, developed by random academics, armchair statisticians and others who have marginal web design skills, but who seem really interested in modeling a system that seeks to identify the best team in the highest level of college football.

I find that fascinating.

[Noop]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Just proves what a bullshit system the BCS is.

There isn't a fucking team out there that I don't think OU can't beat on any given day.

Except against Colorado and Texas Tech. You can say the same thing about any team. Any given Saturday anyone can be beat period.(Except for Hawaii this season)

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Noop

That being said Mizzou got screwed. They beat Kansas and should be going to a BCS bowl.

They beat Kansas and Illinois, both of whom are going to BCS bowls.

So, they go from being the #1 ranked team and playing for a national championship to not even playing in a BCS bowl, while they get to watch two teams they beat play in BCS bowls. And now Missouri gets to go to play in the cold weather in the Cotton Bowl, a shithole of a stadium.

[14ers]

Originally Posted by cartman

It's kind of strange that the four times that it wasn't Pac 10/Big 10, it was a Big 12 school taking the other slot.

I am confused.

I thought that once OSU was out of the picture the RoseBowl had to take Illinois?

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by 14ers

I am confused.

I thought that once OSU was out of the picture the RoseBowl had to take Illinois?

Nope. The Rose Bowl could've taken any BCS bowl eligible team they wanted. (Not counting the conference champs who are automatically locked into certain bowls, and they would've needed the Sugar's permission to take an SEC team since the Sugar lost LSU.) They have always opted to stick with one of their conference affiliations when they could.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by 14ers

I am confused.

I thought that once OSU was out of the picture the RoseBowl had to take Illinois?

Nope. The agreement is that the Rose Bowl will get the Pac 10 and Big 10 champions. But if either (or both) of those teams are in the BCS title game, they are free to pick anyone from the pool of qualifying teams. They have stated however that as long as there can be a Pac-10/Big-10 matchup, they will choose those teams.

That is how a couple of years ago Texas got to face Michigan in the Rose Bowl, because USC made it to the BCS title game, and there wasn't another qualifying Pac-10 team, much to the consternation of Cal fans.

[CU Tiger]

On the pollls there was a great article I rad a while back about one of the polls. That when it was started was 4 college kids who were roomies and made a proposal and got accepted. But they were PAC 10 kids and never watched anything else....it was a fascinating read I just cant remember where or find it now.

As to the end game ACC stuff posted earlier, it seems the ACC offered Clemson $100,000 to compensate for taking a 600,000 pay cut, and theey offered them a smaller overall ticket package...yeah what a tough decision....

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

The neutered ELO Chess rankings are an abomination, and Jeff Sagarin has voiced his strong opposition to them. They do not take into account the margin of victory. Three or four weeks ago, Northern Iowa was ranked #12 in them, but they were ranked about 60th in the more accurate method that takes into account the margin of victory. If they're going to use computers as part of the equation, they should allow the algorithms to accurately analyze the strengths of the teams. Right now, if you beat Rice by 1 or by 1,000,000 points the ELO Chess method counts them equally.

The fact that margin of victory was removed from the computer rankings while the opinion polls take margin of victory into consideration is bullshit.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The fact that margin of victory was removed from the computer rankings while the opinion polls take margin of victory into consideration is bullshit.

I think it's good that they took it out. It doesn't really value IMHO to your algorithm and while it's something that you can look at as a subjective voter and perhaps try to cultivate some meaning from it, the bottom line is, unless you watch at least 3 quarters (and sometimes all) of every game, it's hard to look at those things and really be able to parse sense out of it and so....I think it's better to keep it out.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

On the pollls there was a great article I rad a while back about one of the polls. That when it was started was 4 college kids who were roomies and made a proposal and got accepted. But they were PAC 10 kids and never watched anything else....it was a fascinating read I just cant remember where or find it now.

As to the end game ACC stuff posted earlier, it seems the ACC offered Clemson $100,000 to compensate for taking a 600,000 pay cut, and theey offered them a smaller overall ticket package...yeah what a tough decision....

Didn't BC get screwed a few years ago by finishing pretty high in the conference and then getting shipped out to the Humanitarian Bowl? Looks like, as the "#2" team in the conference, they kind of got hosed again with the Champs Sports Bowl against a 7-5 Michigan State team on December 28th.

[sooner333]

I don't understand this "woe is me, we are Virginia Tech and get no respect" pouting going on. Tech has been in a national championship game under the BCS, has been well-regarded as a national power over the past decade, and got plenty of respect in the preseason. They lose their two games in the regular season against highly ranked teams, one in blowout fashion to the team that is ahead of them by a spot to get in the national championship game.

This wasn't a respect issue, this was looking at the body of work and saying one team was better than the other. You put LSU and VA Tech on the same field, LSU wins (and we know this because it happened).

[molson]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Didn't BC get screwed a few years ago by finishing pretty high in the conference and then getting shipped out to the Humanitarian Bowl? Looks like, as the "#2" team in the conference, they kind of got hosed again with the Champs Sports Bowl against a 7-5 Michigan State team on December 28th.

I know this happened to Syracuse at least 2 of the years I was there between 1996-2000.

I don't know if it technically counts as a "hosing", since obviously if it were intended that bowls select team purely on conference rankings, that would be the rule.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

I think it's good that they took it out.

No, that's how we end up with Northern Iowa being ranked #12 in the computer rankings a few weeks ago. If they're not going to allow margin of victory in the computer rankings, then they should do away with them entirely.

[Celeval]

Originally Posted by molson

I know this happened to Syracuse at least 2 of the years I was there between 1996-2000.

I don't know if it technically counts as a "hosing", since obviously if it were intended that bowls select team purely on conference rankings, that would be the rule.

It is, partially the rule - in the ACC, you can only select a team within one game of the "best" team remaining. But yeah, BC in the 4th ACC bowl I think counts as a hosing.

I'd rather be in the Humanitarian bowl than that joke of a bowl in San Francisco, though. At least the teams have separate sidelines in Boise.

[Celeval]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

No, that's how we end up with Northern Iowa being ranked #12 in the computer rankings a few weeks ago.

And now they're ranked 55th. So?

Not that I disagree about margin of victory being included, but what does it matter what the computer rankings show until all games are completed?

[molson]

Originally Posted by Celeval

I'd rather be in the Humanitarian bowl than that joke of a bowl in San Francisco, though. At least the teams have separate sidelines in Boise.

At least San Francisco's something of a "destination". I live in Boise and I wouldn't want to go to the Humanitarian bowl. It's a nice little city to live in but damn, whenever people tell me they want to visit I say don't bother, let's meet in Vegas.

[Joe]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I know that most of these are insignificant in the title picture but here are all the bowl games

ahh the Ol' Ball Coach gets shut out of a bowl game. It's a good day.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

No, that's how we end up with Northern Iowa being ranked #12 in the computer rankings a few weeks ago. If they're not going to allow margin of victory in the computer rankings, then they should do away with them entirely.

There are a variety of other factors and ways to measure performance that produce far better results than including margin of victory. I mean, I can see why it makes sense on paper, but once you actually go through the process of creating an algorithm, it becomes a lot less practical as a vehicle for determining which teams are better versus which ones are not.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by sooner333

You put LSU and VA Tech on the same field, LSU wins (and we know this because it happened).

I think the Virginia Tech team right now is a far, far different beast that the Virginia Tech in Week 2. I don't think for a second that LSU could win in a blowout again. If they did, it'd be a very close game, IMO.

[Noop]

Originally Posted by sooner333

I don't understand this "woe is me, we are Virginia Tech and get no respect" pouting going on. Tech has been in a national championship game under the BCS, has been well-regarded as a national power over the past decade, and got plenty of respect in the preseason. They lose their two games in the regular season against highly ranked teams, one in blowout fashion to the team that is ahead of them by a spot to get in the national championship game.

This wasn't a respect issue, this was looking at the body of work and saying one team was better than the other. You put LSU and VA Tech on the same field, LSU wins (and we know this because it happened).

Speaking for myself I can understand LSU getting a bump ahead of Virgina Tech but I do not understand OU getting bumped ahead of them and thats why I said it was a disrespect to Virgina Tech and the ACC.

[Young Drachma]

Although, after playing 'round a bit, I take that back. It doesn't change much in my particular model, but I know that there scenarios where it does overvalue some teams over others unfairly, IMHO.

w/o MoV factored:

1 Ohio State 85.46
2 Oklahoma 82.67
3 LSU 81.97
4 Virginia Tech 81.81
5 Missouri 81.38
6 Georgia 81.19
7 Illinois 78.23
8 Florida 77.67
9 Hawaii 77.04
10 West Virginia 76.91
11 Kansas 76.82
12 BYU 74.39
13 USC 73.64
14 Wisconsin 73.03

With MoV factored:

1 Ohio State 85.64
2 Oklahoma 83.83
3 LSU 81.97
4 Virginia Tech 81.14
5 Missouri 81.02
6 Georgia 80.23
7 Florida 78.50
8 Kansas 78.40
9 West Virginia 78.21
10 Hawaii 77.61
11 Illinois 77.25
12 BYU 74.30
13 USC 74.18
14 Boston College 72.37

Of course, "fairness" is a subjective exercise to begin with. And I realize this doesn't tell you how much MoV was valued....

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Celeval

And now they're ranked 55th. So?

Not that I disagree about margin of victory being included, but what does it matter what the computer rankings show until all games are completed?

They dropped because they lost to Delaware. If they had won (even by one point), they would still be in the top 15, which is further demonstration of how absurd the ELO ranking system is.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

I think it's good that they took it out. It doesn't really value IMHO to your algorithm and while it's something that you can look at as a subjective voter and perhaps try to cultivate some meaning from it, the bottom line is, unless you watch at least 3 quarters (and sometimes all) of every game, it's hard to look at those things and really be able to parse sense out of it and so....I think it's better to keep it out.

I think that they're invalidating the computer polls by forcing them to remove it completely, though. The BCS chose what they thought were the best computer polls to use in their rankings and after the computer polls weighed Oregon down a few years ago they decided that margin of victory needed to be removed from the equation.

If they're going to use computer polls they need to stick with them for better or worse, just like the human polls. By forcing tweaks to the computer polls simply because you don't agree with them you're saying "we want computer polls that mirror human expectations". It goes against the entire idea of having the computer polls in the first place.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

Say La V

You, of course, meant "C'est la Vie", right?

SI

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I think that they're invalidating the computer polls by forcing them to remove it completely, though. The BCS chose what they thought were the best computer polls to use in their rankings and after the computer polls weighed Oregon down a few years ago they decided that margin of victory needed to be removed from the equation.

If they're going to use computer polls they need to stick with them for better or worse, just like the human polls. By forcing tweaks to the computer polls simply because you don't agree with them you're saying "we want computer polls that mirror human expectations". It goes against the entire idea of having the computer polls in the first place.

The biggest example of how flawed it is to take out margin of victory was back in 2003. Kansas State beat Oklahoma 35-7 in the Big XII championship game. OU and LSU ended up ranked 1 and 2 in the BCS rankings, and USC was shut out. If the margin of victory had been included in the computer rankings, then USC and LSU would have played for the BCS championship.

As I said earlier, they need to eliminate the computer rankings altogether, or allow them to do what they are supposed to do.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by molson

At least San Francisco's something of a "destination". I live in Boise and I wouldn't want to go to the Humanitarian bowl. It's a nice little city to live in but damn, whenever people tell me they want to visit I say don't bother, let's meet in Vegas.

Actually, the reviews of Tech's previous trip to Boise from players, coaches, parents and fans were all very, very positive. The bowl evidently puts on a very good show.

[Mike1409]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

+1
Their out of conference (Hawaii's) was at least as tough as Florida's. They played Troy, Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky.

Look if you are going to spout off at least get your facts straight. Florida also played FSU out of conference, as well as 7 bowl teams including the Florida Atlantic team you mentioned.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Mike1409

Look if you are going to spout off at least get your facts straight. Florida also played FSU out of conference, as well as 7 bowl teams including the Florida Atlantic team you mentioned.

11 out of conference games?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I'm not sure why the big outcry over Mizzou not being included in the BCS. Yeah, Mizzou beat some teams that made it into the BCS. But the simple fact was that Mizzou had one game to win to be in the National Championship game and they didn't win it. They didn't, so someone else stumbled in. Most Kansas fans will fully admit that they were gifted a BCS spot and that they weren't better than Mizzou, but that's going to happen under this system. I hope they do well and don't embarrass our conference.

If you want to play with the big boys, you have to put up with the crappy system.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I'm not sure why the big outcry over Mizzou not being included in the BCS. Yeah, Mizzou beat some teams that made it into the BCS. But the simple fact was that Mizzou had one game to win to be in the National Championship game and they didn't win it. They didn't, so someone else stumbled in. Most Kansas fans will fully admit that they were gifted a BCS spot and that they weren't better than Mizzou, but that's going to happen under this system. I hope they do well and don't embarrass our conference.

If you want to play with the big boys, you have to put up with the crappy system.

If what you are saying is true, then they should not post a BCS poll until the end of the season and that poll should only consist of the top two teams. We would still have the "top two" teams in the title game, while the rest of the bowl games can freely choose whoever they want without any concerns to BCS rankings.

[Ajaxab]

Uh, Illinois? Seriously? Yeah, it's tradition, but Illinois? After all, those non-traditional Rose Bowl games have really sucked in recent years.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

If what you are saying is true, then they should not post a BCS poll until the end of the season and that poll should only consist of the top two teams. We would still have the "top two" teams in the title game, while the rest of the bowl games can freely choose whoever they want without any concerns to BCS rankings.

I don't disagree with that. I still have no clue why an eight team playoff isn't an option, but it isn't right now evidently.

[Noop]

I am in favor of a six team playoff myself. Reward the top 2 teams with a bye but then again i am just talking.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Michigan could be the one of the worst teams to play in a New Years day bowl ever.

They will be destroyed by Florida. Spread Offense. Running QB.

Not good times...

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Michigan could be the one of the worst teams to play in a New Years day bowl ever.

They will be destroyed by Florida. Spread Offense. Running QB.

Not good times...

Well it was them or Troy.