Official 2009-2010 MLB Offseason Thread

[RedKingGold]

Phillies re-sign Blanton to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal and Victorino to a 3-year, 22 million dollar deal.

Love the Victorino deal, would love the Blanton deal if it did not remind everyone that the Phils should've kept Cliff Lee and dealt Blanton for a B-Level prospect.

Also, curious to see what happens with Jayson Werth. If you had told me that Victorino would've re-signed for three years, I would've told you that Werth was gone. However, it seems like the Victorino deal is palpabale enough that the Phils could afford a Jason Bay-like deal (4 years, 65 million).

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sparkle

The Giants actually did offer Nick Johnson more than the Yankees, he just chose to sign with New York. Can't say that I blame him, with that lineup and the HR bonanza that is right field.

I dunno - seen no evidence for this. But Johnson at a 1-8 is a godsend, especially given the desperate need for OBP in this lineup in particular. FWIW, the Giants by all accounts had plenty of time to wrap this up, but did nothing; the Yankees only came in when talks with Damon collapsed.

[Mr. Sparkle]

They supposedly were around $6 million. Anyways, I'd have been fine with offering him the contract DeRosa signed. Don't know if he'd have accepted, but they could've then used the money they spent on Huff for a true LF. Buuut that's not how the Giants operate.

I desperately wanted one of Johnson or Beltre, and got neither. Hell I'd have been fine with letting Sanchez walk and signing Felipe Lopez, who's still a FA if I'm not mistaken. Oh well, I don't know why I ever expected anything different.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by stevew

I can't wait til Dusty gets ahold of another young pitcher.

Dusty Baker Destroys Aroldis Chapman's Arm Within Minutes Of Arrival | The Onion - America's Finest News Source



CINCINNATI—Within just a few minutes of Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman's arrival in the United States, Reds manager Dusty Baker had already overused and mangled the 21-year-old's arm beyond recognition, team sources reported Sunday. Baker, who has been accused of overtaxing young pitchers' arms in the past, reportedly greeted Chapman with a bucket of 250 baseballs and told him to "hurl them" as fast as he could, later encouraging the fastballer to "go nuts" with his pitching style. "He didn't even let me stretch out first," Chapman told reporters through an interpreter. "And when I started to wince from the pain and soreness, he just gave me a thumbs up, winked, and told me to keep throwing." At press time, Chapman had already been to the hospital for an oblique strain, a torn rotator cuff, and his second Tommy John surgery of the week

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Royals signed Ankiel to a one year deal with a mutual option on a second year. One year for $3.25M seems pretty good for him given that Boras wanted 3 years, $15M initially.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Phillies re-sign Blanton to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal and Victorino to a 3-year, 22 million dollar deal..

Now it is time to ride the Chooch Train and get him signed!

I think they are going to slow play Werth and see if he can stay healthy again this year.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Dusty Baker Destroys Aroldis Chapman's Arm Within Minutes Of Arrival | The Onion - America's Finest News Source



CINCINNATI—Within just a few minutes of Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman's arrival in the United States, Reds manager Dusty Baker had already overused and mangled the 21-year-old's arm beyond recognition, team sources reported Sunday. Baker, who has been accused of overtaxing young pitchers' arms in the past, reportedly greeted Chapman with a bucket of 250 baseballs and told him to "hurl them" as fast as he could, later encouraging the fastballer to "go nuts" with his pitching style. "He didn't even let me stretch out first," Chapman told reporters through an interpreter. "And when I started to wince from the pain and soreness, he just gave me a thumbs up, winked, and told me to keep throwing." At press time, Chapman had already been to the hospital for an oblique strain, a torn rotator cuff, and his second Tommy John surgery of the week

As much as I hate Dusty, I have to admit he's handled the Red's young pitchers pretty well. Pitch counts have appropriate and his really stupid moves, like using Harang for relief or bringing him in after a long rain delay, haven't killed any young arms yet.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Royals signed Ankiel to a one year deal with a mutual option on a second year. One year for $3.25M seems pretty good for him given that Boras wanted 3 years, $15M initially.

ah too bad, was hoping the Cards would resign him. But yeah that's a good deal given what Boras wanted originally.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by Dr. Sak

Now it is time to ride the Chooch Train and get him signed!

I think they are going to slow play Werth and see if he can stay healthy again this year.

They really have no choice but to get Chooch re-signed. Do we even have any other catchers in our system?

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Phillies won the Contreras sweepstakes.

[JS19]

Angels send Matthews Jr. and a shit-ton of money to the Mets for Stokes. World Series, here we come!

[Dr. Sak]

This comment should bring a lot of laughs...I wish Chan Ho would've resigned.

[JPhillips]

Chief: What can you tell me about Jose Arredondo? The Reds gave him a Spring Training invite. I've read he had Tommy John surgery and won't be available in 2010. Does he have significant upside? Do you know why the Reds might try to lock him up given his short service time?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Chief: What can you tell me about Jose Arredondo? The Reds gave him a Spring Training invite. I've read he had Tommy John surgery and won't be available in 2010. Does he have significant upside? Do you know why the Reds might try to lock him up given his short service time?

I would imagine if you get him on a minor league deal, his service time, as you note, kicks in, and you get him for the rest of that time. Seems like an upside move.

Arredondo, going into the 2008 season, was a reliever with an exceptionally live arm; closer type movement and good velocity. He was thought to be the obvious heir apparent to Frankie. Then during that season, the Angels hit some pen depth issues and brought him up and Arredondo was pretty awesome, really, as a setup guy. He's one of the main reasons the Angels made little to no effort to resign KRod.

We get to 2009, and like the rest of the pen, Arredondo is cold to start, ice cold, and he has lingering arm issues, too. But really, even after coming back, he never seemed to have it. Mike Butcher (pitching coach) actually sorta questioned his desire to compete, to be honest (which is shocking, not a move Butcher or anyone on a Scioscia staff normally does), and said they were working with Arredondo to get his stuff right, and it just wasn't happening. Then sometime in August or so, they pretty much shut him down for the season.

We get to the offseason, and I think the plan was for him to go down to Venezuela winter league to try to get back in form, but he was still having pain in his elbow. So the docs finally diagnosed the need for Tommy John surgery in December. Probably three days later or so, Angels don't offer him arb (mild shock, but not really).

Pretty much your classic high risk, high upside type. Not a bad move for the Reds to make, so long as their willing to wait for him. And maybe if there are attitude issues, they can work with him on that, too. Not sure what the Reds have to lose for trying.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JS19

Angels send Matthews Jr. and a shit-ton of money to the Mets for Stokes. World Series, here we come!

THANK...YOU...LORD!!!!

[Terps]

O's bring Tejada back for 1 yr. $6 mil. pending physical, to play 3rd. Atkins moves to 1st, and Scott stays at DH despite saying he wants to play the field.

[Dr. Sak]

The Phillies agreed Sunday on a three-year, $8.85 million contract with catcher Carlos Ruiz, a source with knowledge of the negotiations told MLB.com.

CHOOOOOOCCH!!!

[RedKingGold]

If the Phillies had just kept Lee, then this would have been an awesome off-season for the team.

3-years at 8.85 million is a steal.

[johnnyshaka]

If the A's aren't careful they just might win a few games this season...they just signed Sheets to a one year deal...something like $10 million I think.

The usual "what-if" scenarios have to be getting fans somewhat excited...if Sheets and Duke can return to form and the kids pitch like they did last year, this could be the best staff in baseball.

But, like I said...that's a lot of "what-ifs" that need to play out.

Offense and defense looks like it's improved with Coco and Kouz joining the team this offseason...but I'm not sure that's something to brag about.

Regardless, A's fan rejoice...spring training is near!

[GoldenEagle]

I am very surprised the A's would be willing Sheets that much money.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I am very surprised the A's would be willing Sheets that much money.

I agree...I can't help but think Sheets is beyond happy that he's getting that kind of coin.

[DeToxRox]

Baseball Prospectus PECOTA is out .. AL East is projected to be insane:

Baseball Prospectus | Depth Charts

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Baseball Prospectus PECOTA is out .. AL East is projected to be insane:

Baseball Prospectus | Depth Charts

76-86 for the Angels, eh?

Does PECOTA also project massive unexpected and catastrophic injuries to the 5-6 best players on the team?

Because otherwise, that ain't happening. Makes it hard for me to put much wait into those projections.

My guess is that the Angels' median range is around 85-90 wins next year. If they have some serious injuries, they might fall to .500. If things break right, they'll be in the mid-90s again.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

76-86 for the Angels, eh?

Does PECOTA also project massive unexpected and catastrophic injuries to the 5-6 best players on the team?

Because otherwise, that ain't happening. Makes it hard for me to put much wait into those projections.

My guess is that the Angels' median range is around 85-90 wins next year. If they have some serious injuries, they might fall to .500. If things break right, they'll be in the mid-90s again.

Its hard to take someone seriously when they say this.

The Angels lost Figgins, who was their best offensive player last year by wRC (slightly more than Morales), and who played a more premium defensive position; with positional adjustment, they lost their best hitter. They lost Darren Oliver, their best reliever. More importantly, they lost both of those players to a divisional opponent, . They also lost John Lackey, who was their best pitcher (or 2nd best). Their best remaining offensive players are a 36 year old with old player skills (Abreu) and a 1b who has shown no signs of hitting this well before; every projection system has him being good, but not hitting last year's levels.

In addition, every team in the division has improved - significantly. With the unbalanced schedule, that is a significant factor; the Angels will have less in the way of cupcakes to beat up next year. Texas and Oakland have young arms and talent that debuted next year, and premier talent at the AAA level (Chris Carter, Justin Smoak to name the most obvious ones); the Angels do not.

FWIW, Gun to my head, I see the AL West as a toss-up - I'm most skeptical about Oakland, but Texas/Anaheim/Seattle all look like solid teams, and the fact that the division lacks a team like the Royals/Nationals/Blue Jays to beat the crap out of is a significant factor; I think the AL West winner ends up at less than 90 wins. Now maybe this is the year Scocisa realizes Napoli isn't a leper and gives him playing time that benefits his prodigous offensive skills (over Jeff Mathis, who is a zero at the plate) and Brandon Wood gets his shot at 3b and breaks out, but I'm somewhat skeptical.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Its hard to take someone seriously when they say this.

What, because I stupidly put in "wait" instead of "weight"? Mea culpa, not a mistake I usually make. But if you're going to make a snap judgment on that, you probably need to put more thought into it. If that wasn't your point, I guess you need to be clearer on that statement, because I don't know exactly how you're determining my statement above to be all that ridiculous.

The Angels lost Figgins, who was their best offensive player last year by wRC (slightly more than Morales), and who played a more premium defensive position; with positional adjustment, they lost their best hitter. They lost Darren Oliver, their best reliever. More importantly, they lost both of those players to a divisional opponent, . They also lost John Lackey, who was their best pitcher (or 2nd best). Their best remaining offensive players are a 36 year old with old player skills (Abreu) and a 1b who has shown no signs of hitting this well before; every projection system has him being good, but not hitting last year's levels.

In addition, every team in the division has improved - significantly. With the unbalanced schedule, that is a significant factor; the Angels will have less in the way of cupcakes to beat up next year. Texas and Oakland have young arms and talent that debuted next year, and premier talent at the AAA level (Chris Carter, Justin Smoak to name the most obvious ones); the Angels do not.

FWIW, Gun to my head, I see the AL West as a toss-up - I'm most skeptical about Oakland, but Texas/Anaheim/Seattle all look like solid teams, and the fact that the division lacks a team like the Royals/Nationals/Blue Jays to beat the crap out of is a significant factor; I think the AL West winner ends up at less than 90 wins. Now maybe this is the year Scocisa realizes Napoli isn't a leper and gives him playing time that benefits his prodigous offensive skills (over Jeff Mathis, who is a zero at the plate) and Brandon Wood gets his shot at 3b and breaks out, but I'm somewhat skeptical.

The division is without a doubt tighter. I don't think anyone would seriosuly question that all of the other three teams have made moves that put them in good stance to improve last year, and it's clear the Angels have lost more talent than they have brought in.

But 10 games under .500? From a team that won 100 games in 2008 and 97 in 2009? That has won the division going away three seasons in a row, and five of the past six seasons?

Do you really think the Angels are going to just fall apart? If you do, you clearly haven't paid much attention to the Angels. They lose players every year. Glaus. Guillen. Salmon. Washburn. GA. Cabrera. Teixeira. KRod. Escobar & Shields to injury. But they just keep rolling on and winning.

The Angels lost Oliver, yes. But Scott Shields is back from injury, and Jepsen will have the cutter he learned in midseason from the start. Rodney's no great shakes, but he's decent. Fuentes isn't Mo Rivera, but he's generally effective. Palmer has another year of experience. Guess what? The pen's going to be better this year than last year, despite the loss of Oliver (who, I admit, I do wish we had brought back).

You talk about Lackey, but did you see what sort of season he had lost year? Not exactly ace pitching. Pineiro actually was much better, with that sinker he has learned. He led the majors is ground-to-fly ratio, from what I understand (you probably know that better than I do). He's going from the NL to the AL, from Duncan to Butcher and he'll need to show he can repeat last year's unexpected success, but even a significant drop off, combined with hopefully being healthy all year (as Lackey hardly ever was), will still give the Angels as much value as Lackey has given them the past two seasons.

Kazmir is going to be an Angel all season now. He showed some of his former quality and flair after the trade, and I am expecting a Kazmir a little closer to the Kazmir of old than the one that stunk it up in the first half for the Rays last year. Saunders turned his season around after finally admitting he had been trying to pitch through an injury most of last year. Santana is two years off of a #2 level season and also pitched much better down the stretch after poor early and midseason results. JWeav, your fave, is coming off of his best season and is the new ace.

Keep in mind, the Angels won 97 games, despite their pen being shattered by injuries, missing Lackey and Saunders and Santana for injury time, missing Escobar completely outside of one start in Detroit, not getting Kazmir until late August, and practically holding tryouts to get a consistent starter in the 4th & 5th spots at times.

Losing Figgy at the top of the order is going to hurt, that's undeniable. We will miss the OBP he provided last year. We will also miss his defense at 3B. Aybar is just as fast and might be as good of a contact hitter as well, but you can't expect he will step into the leadoff spot and be as scary on the basepaths, and he is much less willing to take walks than Figgy was last year (although to be fair, prior to last year, Figgy was also averse to taking walks). So there will be a dropoff there, no question. But the vast majority of the offense returns, and that is an offense that was better than every offense in baseball except for the Bombers. And that was despite Kendrick having huge issues and spending time in the minors, Torii Hunter missing a couple months in the middle of the season and Vlad being a shell of himself (and missing a lot of time as well). Matsui is an improvement over what Vlad is now, and while Woods is a different sort of hitter than Figgins, he also provides a lot more power, and is a solid 3B. Abreu-Rivera-Hunter-Matsui-Morales-Kendrick-Napoli/Mathis-Aybar-Woods--there may not be a for sure MVP candidate there, but that's a strong lineup.

This is the team you think is correct in predicting will be 10 games under .500?

I'll take a bet right now if that's what you believe.

BTW, the AL West was actually pretty strong last year, too. Three teams above .500, and the A's were a lot better than the cellar dwellers in the other AL divisions. Not as much the cupcake schedule as you think.

[Chief Rum]

BTW, I completely agree with you on the Naps/Mathis thing. Some of the stuiff Sciosc decides to do frustrates the hell out of me. That said, hard to argue the results most of the time.

[Chief Rum]

BTW, IIRC, these same PECOTA projections took a crapper on the Angels the past 2-3 seasons as well, and were wrong. I'll admit that's off the top of my head, though; I don't remember for sure. But this whole conversation feels eerily familiar, and that can't be from nothing.

I think PECOTA has had some issues with projecting the Angels for some reason, probably because of the style of play. It's another reason why I don't exactly accept PECOTA projections on faith (at least with respect to the Angels).

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

What, because I stupidly put in "wait" instead of "weight"? Mea culpa, not a mistake I usually make. But if you're going to make a snap judgment on that, you probably need to put more thought into it. If that wasn't your point, I guess you need to be clearer on that statement, because I don't know exactly how you're determining my statement above to be all that ridiculous.

No. Because your post reads like I don't like these projections because they are down on my favorite team.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

No. Because your post reads like I don't like these projections because they are down on my favorite team.

Well, I can't argue that that's false. But the implication is shit. And that's that I am down on the projections unfairly because of my bias for my favorite team.

No, I am down on the projections because I KNOW my team, and my team is not going to finish with 76 wins this year, short of some phenomenal stretch of injury issues. And the numbers back me up. The Angels haven't won 76 games or less since 2001. They in fact haven't finished below 89 wins since 2003, and they have more talent now than all but perhaps the last three seasons (2007-09).

Did my ties to the Angels cause me to respond? Of course. But that doesn't mean my argument is flawed.

Logic as I see it:

GIVEN: PECOTA projects Angels to a 76-86 record this year.
My projection (based on the historical record and a reasonable assessment of the talent on the team): too much talent on team to finish with 76 wins or less

Ergo, the projection is shit, or my projection is shit. I think the overwhelming evidence of record is that my projection is accurate and consistest with past results and the talent on the team.

If you want me to amend my conclusion to "the projection is shit with respect to the Angels", I am fine with that. I did not consider if it correctly projected other teams. I don't know other teams nearly as well as I know the Angels.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, I can't argue that that's false. But the implication is shit. And that's that I am down on the projections unfairly because of my bias for my favorite team.

No, I am down on the projections because I KNOW my team, and my team is not going to finish with 76 wins this year, short of some phenomenal stretch of injury issues. And the numbers back me up. The Angels haven't won 76 games or less since 2001. They in fact haven't finished below 89 wins since 2003, and they have more talent now than all but perhaps the last three seasons (2007-09).

Did my ties to the Angels cause me to respond? Of course. But that doesn't mean my argument is flawed.

Logic as I see it:

GIVEN: PECOTA projects Angels to a 76-86 record this year.
My projection (based on the historical record and a reasonable assessment of the talent on the team): too much talent on team to finish with 76 wins or less

Ergo, the projection is shit, or my projection is shit. I think the overwhelming evidence of record is that my projection is accurate and consistest with past results and the talent on the team.

If you want me to amend my conclusion to "the projection is shit with respect to the Angels", I am fine with that. I did not consider if it correctly projected other teams. I don't know other teams nearly as well as I know the Angels.

I think the PECOTA projection has got to be wrong on the Angels - I don't see them winning 76 games. But they're not going to run away with that division I don't think. I could see...88 wins? 87 wins?

[Lathum]

I hate the Yanks and would love to see them out of the playoffs, but I really don't see that happening barring a number of injuries.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I think the PECOTA projection has got to be wrong on the Angels - I don't see them winning 76 games. But they're not going to run away with that division I don't think. I could see...88 wins? 87 wins?

Agree completely. 87-88 wins probably a good call, and I think it's going to be tight the whole way. The rest of the division has definitely improved their talent. I still think the Angels come out on top by an edge, if only because they have been there, done that, but I wouldn't care to make that call for 2011, as the M's continue to improve and the A's/Rangers young talent continues to gain experience.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I hate the Yanks and would love to see them out of the playoffs, but I really don't see that happening barring a number of injuries.

yes please

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I hate the Yanks and would love to see them out of the playoffs, but I really don't see that happening barring a number of injuries.

I want them to make the World Series again...with a different result this time

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I have difficulty seeing the Yankees regressing much.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I think the PECOTA projection has got to be wrong on the Angels - I don't see them winning 76 games. But they're not going to run away with that division I don't think. I could see...88 wins? 87 wins?

Don't get too caught up in the wins/losses, instead look at runs scored and runs allowed. That's where people can present good arguments in support or in disagreement.

In 2009 the Angels scored 883 runs and are projected to score 830 in 2010.

In 2009 the Angels allowed 761 runs and are projected to allow 882 in 2010.

It would be great if we had all the player projections as well, but just runs scored/allowed should be able to focus the debate a bit.

[Shkspr]

Well, keep in mind that right now all the depth chart projections are really good for IS the mean indvidual projections as well. They've been quite up front about how playing time projections and rotations are going to change based on what happens in the spring. They'll probably update those several times. Looking specifically at the Angels, it's pretty clear that the system is predicting both a general rise in runs allowed due to losing Figgins, as well as individual setbacks for the Angels' starters.

Weaver's career, for example, prior to 2009 compared well to a lot of firebreathers who had world beating potential but never seemed to get it together for very long before imploding: Ben McDonald, Cal Eldred, Black Jack McDowell. Weaver had a better year than about 85-90% of those guys at age 26. His 2010 projection looks a little better, but until he shows it for a second year, PECOTA is going to project him back at slightly better than league level. You look at all the guys on last year's comps, and any one of them was capable of one big year. It's the second year in a row few of them delivered on, and Weaver is going to HAVE to have that big year for the Angels to contend this season, looking at the projections. You can go through the same exercise for the rest of the startrs, and see that PECOTA is pessimistic on Saunders and Santana, that Kazmir is going to split the difference between his Angels and Rays stints, and that Piniero is going to bust without Dave Duncan around.

Since we don't have PECOTA's individual projections for 2010 yet, we don't yet know about each player's upside. The veteran Angels have had good success in outplaying their projections as long as they're with the organization, and in underperforming once they leave. If that trend follows, then when the individual pages hit, we can tally up 60% projections instead of weighted mean and find that they are going to pop up at 8-10 wins better than that initial projection.

I think Crapshoot is spot on - it's going to be tight. I kinda like the Rangers in that division, with the Angels, and Mariners within four or five games. I think the Rays are going to find a way to underperform, and so I think the top team in the West will hit 90 wins.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Shkspr

Well, keep in mind that right now all the depth chart projections are really good for IS the mean indvidual projections as well. They've been quite up front about how playing time projections and rotations are going to change based on what happens in the spring. They'll probably update those several times. Looking specifically at the Angels, it's pretty clear that the system is predicting both a general rise in runs allowed due to losing Figgins, as well as individual setbacks for the Angels' starters.

Weaver's career, for example, prior to 2009 compared well to a lot of firebreathers who had world beating potential but never seemed to get it together for very long before imploding: Ben McDonald, Cal Eldred, Black Jack McDowell. Weaver had a better year than about 85-90% of those guys at age 26. His 2010 projection looks a little better, but until he shows it for a second year, PECOTA is going to project him back at slightly better than league level. You look at all the guys on last year's comps, and any one of them was capable of one big year. It's the second year in a row few of them delivered on, and Weaver is going to HAVE to have that big year for the Angels to contend this season, looking at the projections. You can go through the same exercise for the rest of the startrs, and see that PECOTA is pessimistic on Saunders and Santana, that Kazmir is going to split the difference between his Angels and Rays stints, and that Piniero is going to bust without Dave Duncan around.

Since we don't have PECOTA's individual projections for 2010 yet, we don't yet know about each player's upside. The veteran Angels have had good success in outplaying their projections as long as they're with the organization, and in underperforming once they leave. If that trend follows, then when the individual pages hit, we can tally up 60% projections instead of weighted mean and find that they are going to pop up at 8-10 wins better than that initial projection.

I think Crapshoot is spot on - it's going to be tight. I kinda like the Rangers in that division, with the Angels, and Mariners within four or five games. I think the Rays are going to find a way to underperform, and so I think the top team in the West will hit 90 wins.

Assuming you're speaking of Crap's last paragraph, there isn't much disagreement there from anyone. I don't think anyone is saying this division is going to be a walk for any team, and it's going to be tight all season.

Your specific reference to the starters, I can see where that's coming from, but all of those SPs except Pineiro are more or less entering or at the prime age for top performance. Short of injury, I believe they will all have strong seasons.

As for Pineioro, last year looks like an outlier, so I do expect a drop off. That said, Butcher's not a bad coach. He's not Duncan, but he's not bad. I don't think Pineiro's going to completely bust.

There were a lot of issues last year with underperforming starters and injuries. The staff was actually was not as good as it has been historically last year as a result. So predicting a further 16% rise in runs allowed on top of a poor season of pitching, IMO, is a pretty strong reach. The Angels aren't allowing that many runs. My guess is they will allow about the same this season as last season.

I like the offensive projection. Given Figgins' loss, that drop off is a realistic projection, IMO.

[DeToxRox]

Tigers and Verlander are apparently working on a new contract. Detroit is offering 5 years/75 mil, but JV wants a 6th season. Regardless it looks like it'll be around the Felix deal and should be done soon.

Great news. Despite the risk on a long term deal with a pitcher and the obvious workload JV has taken on, he has a very effortless motion and no real history of arm injuries in the past so he is as good a bet as any to stay healthy for most of the deal.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Tigers and Verlander are apparently working on a new contract. Detroit is offering 5 years/75 mil, but JV wants a 6th season. Regardless it looks like it'll be around the Felix deal and should be done soon.

Great news. Despite the risk on a long term deal with a pitcher and the obvious workload JV has taken on, he has a very effortless motion and no real history of arm injuries in the past so he is as good a bet as any to stay healthy for most of the deal.

Good. I don't have any realistic belief Verlander will ever be an Angel, so any deal that keeps him off of the market and away from New York/Boston is a good thing.

Sorta the same with King Felix, although that's a little different from my prespective, since he pitches for a division rival.

[DeToxRox]

This was released today where BP admits they messed up on PECOTA and are working on a fix:

Regarding PECOTA

by Eric Seidman

Reading through the comments of yesterday’s announcement that the PECOTA projections have been released, it is evident that there is a lot of concern over several aspects of the data, ranging from the projected standings to individual quirks. We understand and appreciate that this reflects a lot of passion for what we do here at Baseball Prospectus. To be blunt: we messed up, and are working to fix the issues.

One issue involves the run environment: individual player projections do not match up with the run totals on the projected standings.

Another problem revolves around BABIP, as defense was being double-counted (double-counted).

These and other issues are being worked on and we hope to have an update provided by the end of the day, to unmess up. Please stay tuned for further updates.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Good. I don't have any realistic belief Verlander will ever be an Angel, so any deal that keeps him off of the market and away from New York/Boston is a good thing.

Sorta the same with King Felix, although that's a little different from my prespective, since he pitches for a division rival.

Hey, I'm a fan of a New York/Boston team, and I think it's good if these guys stick with their original teams. It's better for the game that way, no question. I hope Mauer does the same thing.

[dawgfan]

While I expect the LAnaheim Angles to slide back a bit and the division as a whole to be very much up in the air, I was very surprised to see PECOTA peg them at 76 wins.

Earlier projections by Mariner fansite Lookout Landing author (and FanGraphs contributor) Matthew Carruth had the Angles pegged as roughly an 85 win team:

AL West projections

Granted, that was from January 9th and a few big moves have happened since, but not really anything significant affecting the Angels IIRC. Also, it's important to note these are just projected WAR values and not actually trying to simulate W/L records by projecting the entire league.

Bottom line, I tend to suspect PECOTA's first projections are underestimating LAnaheim.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

While I expect the LAnaheim Angles to slide back a bit and the division as a whole to be very much up in the air, I was very surprised to see PECOTA peg them at 76 wins.

Earlier projections by Mariner fansite Lookout Landing author (and FanGraphs contributor) Matthew Carruth had the Angles pegged as roughly an 85 win team:

AL West projections

Granted, that was from January 9th and a few big moves have happened since, but not really anything significant affecting the Angels IIRC. Also, it's important to note these are just projected WAR values and not actually trying to simulate W/L records by projecting the entire league.

Bottom line, I tend to suspect PECOTA's first projections are underestimating LAnaheim.

Ya might have missed it but a couple posts up I posted a thing from BP saying they screwed up the initial PECOTA.

I agree though Anaheim seems like an 85 win team or in that area.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

While I expect the LAnaheim Angles to slide back a bit and the division as a whole to be very much up in the air, I was very surprised to see PECOTA peg them at 76 wins.

Earlier projections by Mariner fansite Lookout Landing author (and FanGraphs contributor) Matthew Carruth had the Angles pegged as roughly an 85 win team:

AL West projections

Granted, that was from January 9th and a few big moves have happened since, but not really anything significant affecting the Angels IIRC. Also, it's important to note these are just projected WAR values and not actually trying to simulate W/L records by projecting the entire league.

Bottom line, I tend to suspect PECOTA's first projections are underestimating LAnaheim.

Probably the main move that wouldn't be there is the signing of Pineiro. Even if he takes a significant step back, he's probably better than the group of pitchers the Angels were going to tryout for that spot. So I would say bump the Angels up a couple wins based on that. 87 seems a good number right now.

[dawgfan]

Dola - sounds like the M's have signed Eric Byrnes to a 1-year deal.

[Young Drachma]

Mike Bacsik, the guy who gave up Barry Bonds record setting home run was called out Tim Redding after Redding implied -- for no really good reason at all -- that Bacsik grooved on to Barry Bonds that night.

Bacsik was just on Baseball Tonight via phone to give his side of the story, saying he had no reason to do that and that Tim Redding is a horrible teammate and had 18 months to call him out after that and never did and waited for some reason to do it 3 years later.

I do recall the conversations back then and that Bacsik specifically gave interviews saying that he realized it could happen and that it might be cool to be remembered in history for being part of something memorable.

But it just seemed like a strange thing for Redding to bring up, especially since he's still in the majors, but Bacsik called him the worst teammate he'd ever had. So that's a ringing endorsement to those Rockies fans.

2. Credit where credit is due: Bacsik showed a lot of humor in dealing with the questions from Redding's quote. Here's one of his tweets from Thursday: "For everyone on my page that needs a denial; I didn't try to give up the home run. I was crappy enough to do it without trying." Bacsik is expecting his third child today and we wish him luck. @MikeBacsik

D12: Bacsik responds to Redding, denies that he's ever grooved - Big League Stew - MLB Blog - Yahoo! Sports

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

5 years/$80M is great news for M's fans. Zduriencik is having a hell of an off-season...

I think I mention this every time he makes a move, but I am so jealous of your GM right now. He's barely been on the job and he's one of the best in the game

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'm almost finished with Posnanski's The Machine. One item really stood out as never happening again. In game four of the 1975 World Series Louis Tiant threw an incredible 163 pitches!

Dusty Baker has been managing the Reds for how long?

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I hate the Yanks and would love to see them out of the playoffs, but I really don't see that happening barring a number of injuries.

I think the Rays projection is awfully generous

SI