2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by timmynausea

Looking at the offshore betting markets makes me nervous. I've been tracking the state by state odds on Pinnacle, widely considered the sharpest book. The good news for Biden is that he has 259 electoral votes that look very secure, ie greater than 75% implied odds per the money line in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Hampshire, all of which have moved strongly in his favor in recent weeks.

That means he only needs to win one of these states (and I'm not attempting to factor in the juice with these implied percentages):

Pennsylvania -189 (65.4%)
Arizona -131 (56.7%)
North Carolina -115 (53.5%)
Florida +122 (45.0%)
Georgia +134 (42.7%)
Ohio +205 (38.2%)

Biden to win Presidency -190 (65.5%)

...if he loses Pennsylvania, and -189 favorites lose daily in baseball, it all rests on hitting one out of five coin flips, more or less, though Ohio starts to veer outside of coin flip range.

Looking back at this post, the offshore betting markets were pretty accurate going into the election, assuming Wisconsin and Michigan pull through for Biden. As polls closed, NC had moved to Trump as a small favorite. I don't think there were any upsets, with Pennsylvania and Georgia pending as possibilities.

Of course, as vote counts started coming in, the markets were all over the place and overreacted. But that's not terribly uncommon with live betting in sports, either.

[Butter]

Let's start with baby steps, step 1 is Trump doesn't get to be president any more. An important first step

[Subby]

And now a look at how much Trump overperfomed the 538 averages in swing states:

OH: +7
WI: +8
IA: +7
TX: +5
FL: +6
NC: +3
GA: +3
MN: +2
AZ: -1

A really rough night for polls and a disastrous night for certain pollsters such as Quinnipiac who showed Biden doing so much better.

— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) November 4, 2020

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Every Republican who fails to call him out for that is a fucking coward.

They'll wait to see which way the wind is blowing and then a couple will issue a politely worded rebuke... maybe

SI

[kingfc22]

Looks like a 3rd party candidate is going to save Susan Collins. Unreal

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Butter

Let's start with baby steps, step 1 is Trump doesn't get to be president any more. An important first step

And once this happens, I hope the major news outlets don't give him any attention. Let him go on Fox News, but I hope everyone else ignores him.

Another point to go along with 'this is who we are'... it doesn't look like Trump fatigue was a big factor.

[Vegas Vic]

For those of thus who don't care for either party, this outcome actually isn't too bad. Biden will not be able to pack the Supreme Court, add new states or abolish the Electoral College. The mid-term elections of 2022 will probably further divide the government, which is also a good thing in my opinion.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Looks like a 3rd party candidate is going to save Susan Collins. Unreal

Nope. Maine has ranked choice. If Collins doesn't get 50% then the third party candidate's votes will get redistributed based on second choice.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

And once this happens, I hope the major news outlets don't give him any attention.

The irony of course is that CNN's and MSNBC's ratings are probably going to take a steep hit over the next four years.

[Butter]

Biden just took the lead in Michigan

[Butter]

MI, WI, AZ, NV come in, he can sue the shit out of PA and it won't make a lick of difference.

[spleen1015]

My boss who is Irish, lives in Ireland, is all over the election this morning. He is telling me things before I even see them.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Butter

Biden just took the lead in Michigan

I am amused reading all the hot takes on this board from last night .

[lungs]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I am amused reading all the hot takes on this board from last night .

You can always tell when a certain Iowa Hawkeye fan is drunk posting

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

And once this happens, I hope the major news outlets don't give him any attention. Let him go on Fox News, but I hope everyone else ignores him.

Another point to go along with 'this is who we are'... it doesn't look like Trump fatigue was a big factor.

Based on what is trending on Twitter (I know) and this article, Fox News is out, Newsmax is in.

Conservatives Turn Against Fox News Over Election Coverage, Change Channel to Newsmax

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Nope. Maine has ranked choice. If Collins doesn't get 50% then the third party candidate's votes will get redistributed based on second choice.

Ah. Did not know that. Just saw the 49/44/4 spread and saw that most of the democratic areas were mostly accounted for.

[JPhillips]

Biden's going to end up winning the popular vote by 5 to 6 million. That's still a recipe for instability at some point.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Looks like a 3rd party candidate is going to save Susan Collins. Unreal

Maine has Ranked Choice Voting. So the 3rd party 2nd choices will decide. And that 3rd party has asked all their voters to put Gideon as the 2nd choice.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Biden's going to end up winning the popular vote by 5 to 6 million. That's still a recipe for instability at some point.

Instability? I don't know if you've noticed, but things seem pretty fuckin' unstable right now.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Butter

Instability? I don't know if you've noticed, but things seem pretty fuckin' unstable right now.

It can, and will, get a lot worse than this is the majority continues to get locked out of power.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Based on what is trending on Twitter (I know) and this article, Fox News is out, Newsmax is in.

Conservatives Turn Against Fox News Over Election Coverage, Change Channel to Newsmax

So I went to the Newsmax Twitter feed to see what they were saying. The anchors there look like they were created from a defective Karl Rove cloning machine.

SI

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I don't get the hate I am seeing for pollsters in a lot of places. Twitter, etc...The election isn't over and they still could be right. Just because 538 gave Biden a 90% chance doesn't mean it would be in a landslide.

His final forecast had Biden winning the Electoral College 348 to 190, and winning the popular vote 53.4% to 45.4%. That doesn't look too accurate to me, even taking into consideration the uncounted votes.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I had to call it quits at 2:15. If I had stayed up to watch Trump speak I'd have been up all night fuming. Good call on my part.

For a guy who lies a lot, he certainly telegraphed what his strategy was on the election. He did exactly what he threatened to do - claim victory, call everything fraud and threaten to go to court. Although I assume the only places where there is no fraud and all votes need to be counted are the states where he's not ahead. Amazing how that happens...

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I went to bed at 10:30 because things weren't going to be decided last night. I woke up at 4:30 and things have improved for Biden quite a bit since then.

Crazy to think Biden could win without FL or PA.

Called it quits at 11:30 when I realized all the networks were spinning their wheels and we weren't getting more info.

all I would have done if I stayed up was switched from beer to vodka.

[cuervo72]

Same as Lathum. Well, sort of. Stayed up a bit later to read along with an audiobook. (I know, seems kind of silly.)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

His final forecast had Biden winning the Electoral College 348 to 190, and winning the popular vote 53.4% to 45.4%. That doesn't look too accurate to me, even taking into consideration the uncounted votes.

yeah, I suppose I am guilty of just looking at the final result.

[albionmoonlight]

The polls underestimated Trump and overestimated Biden. And that was after "correcting" for the Hillary/Trump mistakes. I don't think that anyone can doubt that. It will be interesting to see how the polls respond going forward.

538 gave Biden a 90% chance of winning (as opposed to Hillary's 66% chance) in part because the polls gave him such a large lead that there was a lot of room to absorb error. And that seems to be what will end up happening.

I think that this is Pennsylvania's last rodeo as a swing state. It is funny to think that the big 3 swing states of the Bush years (Ohio, Florida, Penn) will, I predict, all end up as heavy red leaners. The Dems better hope that NC and Georgia hurry up and get purple, because their EC disadvantage seems almost insurmountable without getting some blue leaners with high EC counts.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

For those of thus who don't care for either party, this outcome actually isn't too bad. Biden will not be able to pack the Supreme Court, add new states or abolish the Electoral College. The mid-term elections of 2022 will probably further divide the government, which is also a good thing in my opinion.

Not sure about 2022, but apart from the short-term violence and ugliness I expect, the current state of affairs is—for my tastes—the best I could have reasonably hoped for. Bye-bye Trump, the far right throttled by House and POTUS, and the far left throttled by Senate and SCOTUS.

[Vegas Vic]

One thing that's fascinating to me is that polling in presidential races appears to be getting less accurate over time. Look at the accuracy of the final polls in the 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's.

Hell, now it's almost like being a weather man in south Florida. Just say there's a 50% chance of scattered showers every day, and you can always say you were right.

[ISiddiqui]

Biden seems to be up by 20,000 votes in Wisky right now with 97%. I'd imagine that the remaining 3% are mail in and should add to Biden's lead. Eau Claire and Lacrosse Counties at 93% in, and both are Biden counties.

[JPhillips]

I think it's entirely unclear what happens to the GOP after Trump. Is there anyone that can duplicate his magic?

It would also help quite a bit if people knew what Dems stand for. Nobody knows what Dems want to do with power.

[ISiddiqui]

In Michigan, Wayne County (where Detroit is) has only 70% reported and Biden is up in the state by ~12,000. That lead will grow significantly.

[sterlingice]

You know Mitch is just cackling from his crypt this morning, Bourbon in one hand: he got rid of Trump but gets to play resistance fighter for the next 4 years and keep anything from happening.

SI

[Ghost Econ]

Was speaking with one of the attorneys at work this AM. He is thoroughly convinced Dems are in the process of stealing the election with these "delayed" mail in counts. He's successful, has a normal wife and kids... This is how far gone a good 40% of the country are.

He also says within 2 years Kamala will 25th Amendment Biden.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think it's entirely unclear what happens to the GOP after Trump. Is there anyone that can duplicate his magic?

It would also help quite a bit if people knew what Dems stand for. Nobody knows what Dems want to do with power.

Tom Cotton us their great white knight.

But they need to find a likeable Latino.

[I. J. Reilly]

So if NV, WI and MI hold for Biden he's over the line, right? With a likely recount to come in WI, because it's 2020 and of course there will be.

[Ksyrup]

The thing about cults is that they engender a shit-ton of loyalty and enthusiasm. That's what was missing from any polling. The extent to which flavor-aid drinkers would come out is obviously still not understood or maybe Trump is such an outlier in his ability to reach people at that level that polls can't take themselves to that extreme.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think it's entirely unclear what happens to the GOP after Trump. Is there anyone that can duplicate his magic?

It would also help quite a bit if people knew what Dems stand for. Nobody knows what Dems want to do with power.

Your first two sentences don't matter because of what you wrote in your second two sentences.

[Jas_lov]

I wonder if a non Trump generic R can get the high rural turnout or if that's specific to Trump. That's where he runs up the score.

[miked]

The Dems seem to be in the business of cleaning up after republican messes these days, hard to do much when nearly ever time they are in power, the Senate throttles everything. I think they stand for environmental regulations, clean energy, and improved healthcare delivery. Whether their ideas are great, who knows, but I think it's pretty clear where their priorities are. Now of course, the republicans will get religious about the debt that they blew up (again) and most of the spending will require raising the taxes they cut, so they will be labeled as tax and spend.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by I. J. Reilly

So if NV, WI and MI hold for Biden he's over the line, right? With a likely recount to come in WI, because it's 2020 and of course there will be.

With those plus AZ the other states don't matter and Biden is up 21k in WI so a recount isn't changing that outcome.

Biden is going to win. It hasn't gone anything close to script though.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Biden seems to be up by 20,000 votes in Wisky right now with 97%. I'd imagine that the remaining 3% are mail in and should add to Biden's lead. Eau Claire and Lacrosse Counties at 93% in, and both are Biden counties.

Yeah, it looks like the much ridiculed Trafalgar Group is the only polling agency that nailed Wisconsin in their final poll, predicting a 0.4% Biden win.

[Jas_lov]

Trafalgar was more accurate than others. I hope they get rid of polls going forward. They were off by more than 5 points in the upper midwest. Ohio and Iowa weren't close.

[ISiddiqui]

Georgia is really something. COBB County is going for Biden by 12% and they are only at 89% counted, meaning the rest are mail in that is likely going to increase that (for those from metro Atlanta, you will share my shock).

The big counties that are outstanding are Dekalb (80% of the vote in), Clayton (86%), Rockdale (89%), Douglas (91%), Cobb (89%), Muscogee (89%), Bibb (85%), Richmond (86%), and Chatham (80%). All are Biden counties. Biden has a very good shot to take Georgia.

[BYU 14]

People probably need to start giving Trafalgar a bit more credence.

That said, I feel so much better waking up to a Biden lead in NV, MI and WI. Please just hold serve!

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by I. J. Reilly

So if NV, WI and MI hold for Biden he's over the line, right? With a likely recount to come in WI, because it's 2020 and of course there will be.

I think this is where we are.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by I. J. Reilly

With a likely recount to come in WI, because it's 2020 and of course there will be.

Maybe not. Biden is up by 0.6% and still about 3% to count. I can see him go over 1% based on how the mail in voting has been looking. That means no ability to do a recount.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

People probably need to start giving Trafalgar a bit more credence.

That said, I feel so much better waking up to a Biden lead in NV, MI and WI. Please just hold serve!

The thing about Trafalgar is, their end numbers are closer, but their cross tabs arent overly accurate. It's like they polled for what they wanted and filled in the rest later.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The thing about cults is that they engender a shit-ton of loyalty and enthusiasm. That's what was missing from any polling. The extent to which flavor-aid drinkers would come out is obviously still not understood or maybe Trump is such an outlier in his ability to reach people at that level that polls can't take themselves to that extreme.

I can't get over how high the enthusiasm was for him. When those early voting numbers started coming in, I thought this was a center-right mixed with all of the left and a number of non-voters coalescing behind a lukewarm centrist candidate out of fear of Trump.

There didn't seem like any avenues for Trump to grab more votes from. But Trump's went up at almost the same rate - I just didn't get it.

SI

[albionmoonlight]

Anyone watching FoxNews?

What's their spin right now?

Is it "we are still waiting, but Trump has a great shot?"

Or is it "Trump has won, but there are shenanigans going on and Bill Barr will need to investigate?"

I think that Fox is a great barometer of how the GOP establishment will play this. So what's their stance right now?

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I can't get over how high the enthusiasm was for him. When those early voting numbers started coming in, I thought this was a center-right mixed with all of the left and a number of non-voters coalescing behind a lukewarm centrist candidate out of fear of Trump.

There didn't seem like any avenues for Trump to grab more votes from. But Trump's went up at almost the same rate - I just didn't get it.

SI

Yep, that's where I am. I think where we stand right now, it's really disappointing that the Senate is gone. There's a lot that goes up in smoke without it, and a lot of hopes for some changes to be made are gone. Having said that, this result is a whole, helluva lot better than trump winning. I really struggle to see just what the people who stuck with him and voted for him were thinking when they look at him. I get the whole Cult of Personality thing, and maybe that's what it is, but he will be back in 2024 and he'll begin his candidacy the moment that the result here is finalized. You thought a 2 year campaign was bad, wait until you see the four year campaign.