Werewolf CXXVIII - The Original Werewolves - VILLAGERS WIN

[Lathum]

I don't like voting CR just yet because there was a possibility he was attacked N1.

Vote Saldana

[JAG]

Originally Posted by saldana

JAG, first, thanks for the detailed analysis. having not been able to follow along as well as i would have liked, it was very helpful

second, other than my "over the top" reaction to your blatant misrepresentation of my day 1 vote, what exactly is it that is so convincing to you that makes you think i am a wolf?

Interesting revisionist history there. I laid out two strategies for people to follow D2. 1. If you thought there were all villagers on the block D1, you should vote someone with an early D1 vote. 2. If you thought there was a wolf on the block, you should vote the later Zinto voters since there's a reasonable chance they were trying to save a wolf.

Evidence? Here's what I have:

1. Both times when you've been up for votes, only villagers have voted you. This most recent time, my cultist suspect switched to the person you were ip against.

2. Danny, our dearly departed seer, felt you were a wolf and that Jackal and I were good (I am in position to know he was correct on two points).

3. You have only voted for villagers, other than the J23 sweep. Granted this is true for others as well.

4. You are the last remaining unknown for me on the Zibto voters, in a vote where for sure the wolves spread out.

5. The various inconsistencies and oddities surrounding mau's treatment of you when I strongly suspect he is the cultist.

[Chief Rum]

JAG makes for an interesting case there against sal.

Regardless of his reasoning, though, my head's on the block, killing me does the village no good, and sal's the other candidate. So I have to go self-defense anyway.

VOTE SALDANA

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post 553

4 Saldana - JAG (503), bhlloy (506), Lathum (551), chief rum (553)
2 chief rum - mauboy1 (512), dwardzala (536)

[saldana]

Originally Posted by JAG

Interesting revisionist history there. I laid out two strategies for people to follow D2. 1. If you thought there were all villagers on the block D1, you should vote someone with an early D1 vote. 2. If you thought there was a wolf on the block, you should vote the later Zinto voters since there's a reasonable chance they were trying to save a wolf.

Evidence? Here's what I have:

1. Both times when you've been up for votes, only villagers have voted you. This most recent time, my cultist suspect switched to the person you were ip against.

this is hardly evidence. there is only one known wolf exposed to this point, so finding me culpable because the ONE known wolf didnt vote for me is circumstantial at best

2. Danny, our dearly departed seer, felt you were a wolf and that Jackal and I were good (I am in position to know he was correct on two points).

yet he never scanned me...his "feelings" werent strong enough to draw scan of me, but those same "feelings" are supposed to be enough to clear you?

3. You have only voted for villagers, other than the J23 sweep. Granted this is true for others as well.

again, hardly damning, since you yourself admit this is not actual evidence

4. You are the last remaining unknown for me on the Zibto voters, in a vote where for sure the wolves spread out.

you speak with a degree of certainty about what the wolves would "for sure" do? as i asked you earlier regarding Lathum, do you not think people capable of adjusting tactics? spreading out is a very normal strategy, i hardly think it out of the realm of reason to think exactly the opposite.

5. The various inconsistencies and oddities surrounding mau's treatment of you when I strongly suspect he is the cultist.

[/quote]so i am to be held responsible for the posts and behavior of someone else. has it occurred to you at all that Mau may be a wolf and is the one putting out posts designed to push you, since you were so willing to do so on your own, towards me? Unless the rules are incomplete, the wolves have no special roles...they need us to do alot of their work for them, and you are doing nothing but helping them on more or less nothing but very thin speculation

I am nothing but a simple villager, and if i thought i could get enough votes on you, i would vote you, but as i am left with little choice
vote CR

[JAG]

Re 1., I can be more clear and say only people who have been publicly revealed as villagers have voted you (other than me, but that's hardly an argument to sway me).

Re 4., I can speak with absolute certainty because the four remaining unknowns to me are all on different people.

Re 5., Mau was scanned good, as there is no cunning role, he can only be villager or cultist. Should you be held accountable? Absolutely. The cultist knows the identities of the wolves. Therefore, odd behavior in regards to you from him, such as pointing out that you are suspicious on D2 and D5, yet not voting you when he had opportunity D2, D4, and D5, absolutely reflects badly on you.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by JAG

Re 1., I can be more clear and say only people who have been publicly revealed as villagers have voted you (other than me, but that's hardly an argument to sway me).

Re 4., I can speak with absolute certainty because the four remaining unknowns to me are all on different people.

Re 5., Mau was scanned good, as there is no cunning role, he can only be villager or cultist. Should you be held accountable? Absolutely. The cultist knows the identities of the wolves. Therefore, odd behavior in regards to you from him, such as pointing out that you are suspicious on D2 and D5, yet not voting you when he had opportunity D2, D4, and D5, absolutely reflects badly on you.

re 1: again. you have one and only one point of reference

re 5: that is exactly what a wolf or a cultist would like you to conclude. good job falling into their trap and doing their work for them.

[Barkeep49]

So JAG it seems to me that much of your case against saldana rests on mau being culitst right? Since that case also implicates me I am naturally skeptical of it. Going to really dig in to Sunday's post (though my availability will be off and on between now and lynch).

[Autumn]

The weekend stretched out for the villagers and it seemed perhaps a brief reprieve from the terrors of the night. Now as the sun sinks though they are faced once again with the reality that there is some sort of killer still among them. The need to find the culprit, this man who is a wolf, grows more intense as the sky becomes streaked with the colors of the sunset.

Vote count as of post 558

4 Saldana - JAG (503), bhlloy (506), Lathum (551), chief rum (553)
3 chief rum - mauboy1 (512), dwardzala (536), saldana (555)

[JAG]

Sal, to correct your rebuttal of 2. above, I never claimed that Danny's instincts clear me. However, the fact that he is 1. a good player and 2. a confirmed villager, means that his opinion can be trusted as genuine. Is it guaranteed proof? No, but it's another data point.

You certainly aren't making me feel like I've made a mistake when you have misrepresented what I have said numerous times today.

[dwardzala]

Well it looks like there's not going to be much action tonight. If things don't change, Saldana is done.

[Barkeep49]

Since JAG's theory seems to suggest that I am also guilty and that this evidence is similar for saldana, I am going to have to

Vote CR

[bhlloy]

So we have a tie with the two most suspected wolves and the suspected cultist on CR. Nice.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

So we have a tie with the two most suspected wolves and the suspected cultist on CR. Nice.

This has it backwards. Basically JAG has lumped the 3 of us together. I feel by not voting for saldana, I'm also voting for my own innocence. I'm guessing the other two (especially saldana) might feel similarly.

[bhlloy]

Well, if you weren't lumped together before today, you now are inexorably. This vote is basically going to tell us all we need to know if CR turns up villager (and given the day 1 events, the odds strongly favor that). If that happens I'd be willing to wager that you and Sal are wolf and mau or dwardzala are cultist.

Honestly, given day 1 and the increased odds that CR is a villager, I think it's an absolutely mindblowing play to vote for him today. But each to their own.

[JAG]

Yet you've provided no actual evidence or reasoning why anyone should disbelieve the information I've presented. I've poked plenty of holes in Mau and saldana's inconsistencies and misrepsentations.

[bhlloy]

If we lynch a villager today and the wolves get NK, can the village still win?

I think we have a pretty good idea of who is who at this point (or we have some strong theories) but I'm wondering if it even matters too much right... unless we can hit a wolf today

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If we lynch a villager today and the wolves get NK, can the village still win?

I think we have a pretty good idea of who is who at this point (or we have some strong theories) but I'm wondering if it even matters too much right... unless we can hit a wolf today

Presumably we are 6-2 right now. If we kill a villager it becomes 4-2 after NK. So we can still win after lynching a villager.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by JAG

Yet you've provided no actual evidence or reasoning why anyone should disbelieve the information I've presented. I've poked plenty of holes in Mau and saldana's inconsistencies and misrepsentations.

You're right. I simply haven't had the time to play that kind of game. I shouldn't have signed up since despite being on break I remain incredibly busy. Not too busy to vote and play, but busy enough that I can mount the kind of defense that I think is there to be made.

[Barkeep49]

Have we asked if BG blocks wolf kill? That's been a mechanic in previous games and could explain the lack of N1 kill with CR still being a wolf.

[bhlloy]

Let me ask you this BK... why are you so against a Saldana vote? If he's wolf and you vote for him, you will build trust. If he's villager, then JAG's analysis is wrong and his analysis of you is wrong also. Add that to the fact that CR is way more likely to be a villager than a regular player... I don't get it. If you are a villager, your vote makes no sense at all. You just tied a strongly suggested villager against a suspected wolf.

[Lathum]

I still dont trust Jag

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Let me ask you this BK... why are you so against a Saldana vote? If he's wolf and you vote for him, you will build trust. If he's villager, then JAG's analysis is wrong and his analysis of you is wrong also. Add that to the fact that CR is way more likely to be a villager than a regular player... I don't get it. If you are a villager, your vote makes no sense at all. You just tied a strongly suggested villager against a suspected wolf.

I'm not SO against a saldana vote. I feel like I've been back into a corner with it. Basically the case suggests that if saldana is a wolf I'm a wolf. I know I'm not a wolf, so I find the case faulty. And, frankly, I worry that if I vote for saldana and he comes up wolf I'm even more toast. I know my own innocence, so what else can I do?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I still dont trust Jag

So do you have a different case against saldana then? Presumably you think he's guilty, hence your vote.

[dwardzala]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I still dont trust Jag

This, plus I did not want a run away on Saldana, as it doesn't tell us as much as a close race.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I still dont trust Jag

His move will either be a brilliant villager move or a brilliant wolf move as I see it. I'm undecided on this. I'm leaning wolf move as I know what I am.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

His move will either be a brilliant villager move or a brilliant wolf move as I see it. I'm undecided on this. I'm leaning wolf move as I know what I am.

Or I guess a dumb villager move..

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

His move will either be a brilliant villager move or a brilliant wolf move as I see it. I'm undecided on this. I'm leaning wolf move as I know what I am.

We all know what you are. It really would be a brilliant wolf play to make one of our scanned villagers seem guilty.

[bhlloy]

Voting record speaks for itself. If things stay the way we are and somebody is forced to switch and lynch CR, and he shows up villager, then you've made a huge wolf play.

Lathum - another reason we need to lynch Sal today. A CR lynch tells us nothing about JAG. I will say that JAG bought a lot of trust with his defense of Jackal and I generally think his analysis is solid. I don't think he's playing a wolf game, but that's just my feeling.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by dwardzala

This, plus I did not want a run away on Saldana, as it doesn't tell us as much as a close race.

lol, a tie doesn't tell us anything at all

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

lol, a tie doesn't tell us anything at all

Sure it does. We still get a lynch. JAG got out early so he owns the tiebreaker.

[Barkeep49]

DOLA - But I agree. It would be better to get a clean lynch. Come join us voting for CR.

[bhlloy]

Here's how I see it. We can discuss JAG and mauboy and what we think of them tomorrow. Right now we're tied and the other candidate is somebody who is very likely to be a villager. We have at least one villager on CR right now who is participating in the thread.

So what's it going to be? Does anybody actually think that lynching CR makes sense today? I'll switch to him to avoid a tie, but it just seems like a stupid play.

[dwardzala]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

lol, a tie doesn't tell us anything at all

A tie lynch's saldana because the mechanism is first vote.

[bhlloy]

ah ok, cool

[bhlloy]

Lathum - what's your gut say on this one?

[dwardzala]

I have no problem switching to Saldana to ensure we get the most info out of this lynch.

Unvote CR
Vote Saldana

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post 587

5 Saldana - JAG (503), bhlloy (506), Lathum (551), chief rum (553), dwardzala (587)
3 chief rum - mauboy1 (512), saldana (555), Barkeep49 (562)

[Autumn]

Deadline

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Here's how I see it. We can discuss JAG and mauboy and what we think of them tomorrow. Right now we're tied and the other candidate is somebody who is very likely to be a villager. We have at least one villager on CR right now who is participating in the thread.

So what's it going to be? Does anybody actually think that lynching CR makes sense today? I'll switch to him to avoid a tie, but it just seems like a stupid play.

If Saldana ends up as a wolf, it doesn't mean there needs to be discussion on me and JAG only. We know I'm a villager and everyone seems to be gung-ho about me as the cultist. If Saldana comes up as a wolf I still will have my eyes on JAG possibly. We have NO way of knowing if JAG is a villager and his move would be absolutely awesome if we claimed him as a villager and he made the move to vote out his last wolf buddy. He gains trust but not a pass.

That being said lets cross our fingers for a freakin' wolf tonight.

[Autumn]

As the sun is almost sunk, and the moon beginning to rise the villagers finally swing into action. Action must be taken, whether it's folly or not, as only lynching a werewolf can stop the murder tonight.

Only two candidates see their names put down today and when all is counted it is Saldana who is chosen to die. He is hauled up to the gallows, the bodies of the innocent villagers buried, but the body of a werewolf still hanging nearby. Saldana says nothing as the noose is put on him and he is dropped. The villagers let out a cry of fear and relief though as they watch his body change, twisting into a powerful and evil form, half lman and half wolf. They watch in fear until they are sure that he is dead.

Saldana was a werewolf.

[Autumn]

Night descends on the village. Perhaps this is the end to their terror?

Submit all night actions by 11 pm EST.

[Barkeep49]

Well I'm glad this outcome came out well.

[JAG]

Hallelujah.

[JAG]

Good luck bhlloy.

[mauchow]

Great BLOCK! It was basically a 1 out of 3 shot at getting the block; pretty good chances if you ask me. If his announcing his blocks for the previous night caused them to pick himself, that's a pretty sweet maneuver.

[mauchow]

And not fully disclosing the truth, that is.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Great BLOCK! It was basically a 1 out of 3 shot at getting the block; pretty good chances if you ask me. If his announcing his blocks for the previous night caused them to pick himself, that's a pretty sweet maneuver.

umm, night actions aren't processed yet

[bhlloy]

could you be trying harder to be the cultist?

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Night descends on the village. Perhaps this is the end to their terror?

Submit all night actions by 11 pm EST.

lol I thought by his first sentence the night was over, I didn't even read the second line. I'm distracted watching the Amazing Race; my bad. I'm off to bed.