2007 NFL Week 2 Thread

[Logan]

I'm watching. I like when teams get burned by trying to "ice" the kicker.

[Ironhead]

You must have hated the Raiders game then. As Pumpy said, that was the ultimate Icing by Ninja Timeout.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Cringer

Wow, after 1st and goal from the 2nd yard line right before the half, the Redskins looked like idiots as they moved back on penalties. Can't believe they got that TD.

Am I the only one watching by the way?

I'm a Redskins fan, so I'm definitely watching - I just spent most of the first half in my living room rather than in front of the computer where I am now.

[wade moore]

Is the Eagles offense really this bad, or are the Redskins and Packers good?

[Cringer]

Packers defense is good IMO, but I am a Packer fan. I think the Eagles are struggling though too.

[wade moore]

Campbell has been much smarter about when to run so far this season.

[Radii]

Charles Barkley with the line of the game right now. "I said I want shaq, and they got me charles shackleford" <3 Chuck.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Radii

Charles Barkley with the line of the game right now. "I said I want shaq, and they got me charles shackleford" <3 Chuck.

Yeah, I chuckled.

Get it?

Errr... anybody?

[Neuqua]

"If I didn't eat so much, I wouldn't be fat!"

Nice.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Neuqua

"If I didn't eat so much, I wouldn't be fat!"

Nice.

[Cringer]

It was funny, but this constant yacking with a football game in the background is annoying. You would think it's a blowout the way they are ignoring the game.

[wade moore]

Man. I know he makes young QB mistakes, but Campbell really overall has been impressive this season for a guy that only started 6 games before this season.

A lot of people dog him, but I think he really has the potential to be a very good QB. Not sure if he can be a great QB, but I do think he can be a very good one.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by wade moore

Man. I know he makes young QB mistakes, but Campbell really overall has been impressive this season for a guy that only started 6 games before this season.

A lot of people dog him, but I think he really has the potential to be a very good QB. Not sure if he can be a great QB, but I do think he can be a very good one.

He looks pretty good. I can't compare to last year though. I missed so much of last season I didn't know until the offseason that Campbell is black.

[Rizon]

Man, the Eagles are a horrible team.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by Rizon

Man, the Eagles are a horrible team.

No, the Packers and Redskins are great teams, thank you very much.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Cringer

He looks pretty good. I can't compare to last year though. I missed so much of last season I didn't know until the offseason that Campbell is black.

He looked like a young QB making his first starts on a team that had WR's that still didn't understand their new offense.

That should tell you something .

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by wade moore

Is the Eagles offense really this bad, or are the Redskins and Packers good?

That Packers' defense is good. McNabb looks really off tonight. He's thrown a lot of balls high. His receivers aren't helping him out, either.

[wade moore]

Jaws, IMO, is really at his best when he's breaking down plays like he just did with the covered receivers. I love him on NFL Matchup for instance.

[Rizon]

Originally Posted by Cringer

No, the Packers and Redskins are great teams, thank you very much.

Nah, it's not hard to look good playing against this artard Eagles coaching staff.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by Rizon

Nah, it's not hard to look good playing against this artard Eagles coaching staff.

I said they are both going to be in the NFC Championship game.

[wade moore]

Wow - you can't get more open than that.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by wade moore

Wow - you can't get more open than that.

I felt bad for Campbell on that. He just gunned that ball like he got over-excited about how open the wr was.

[sabotai]

Eagles lucky that one wasn't picked off.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Cringer

I felt bad for Campbell on that. He just gunned that ball like he got over-excited about how open the wr was.

Yup. The way things are going he may REALLY REALLY want that pass back.

[sabotai]

And that should be the game....should be.

[wade moore]

That's what I want out of my top 10 draft picks.

[wade moore]

Whoah - Nice hair Taylor .

[Rizon]

The Eagles just decimated my points this week in my pickem league.

[sabotai]

Redskins could start off 3-0. They got the Giants next week, meaning they'll put up about 35-40 points.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I really love how I "undersell" the Patriots. It's so blown out of proportion it's not even a joke anymore. This all stems from me being wrong about Brady a few years ago and then having the audacity to say NE had a ton of luck in their championship years. Now everything I say about the Pats gets blown out of proportion. I made a very fair and even minded post about them in the "cheating" thread. Didn't jump on the forfeit bandwagon. Didn't jump on the suspend Belichick bandwagon. Didn't jump on the keep them out of the playoffs bandwagon. In fact, the punishment I suggested was damned near the exact one given to the Pats. But I was jumped on for irrationaly hating the team again.

All I've done thorugh this thread is talk about how good of a team the Pats are. Non stop. I haven't insulted them a bit. Yet I'm still underselling them because I haven't annoited them as living, breathing Gods who people should worship.

I was throwing the underselling comment out there half tongue in cheek, didn't realize it was quite that touchy... that being said, you did say the Chargers were/are clearly the more talented team and compared this years Broncos to the Pats that won 19 straight and back to back Super Bowls (although I realize that was probably just in the sense of you feel they're lucky, not that you think this years Broncos is as good as that team, which is why I didn't bring it up.)

As for the debate:

QB - Pats, but Rivers is one hell of a QB. Or was one last year. Brady is the second best QB in the game. Rivers would easily be in the top 8 after last year. I'm not sure where the hell I'd rank him at this point.

RB - Chargers, Tomlinson is the #1 back in football. Maroney comes nowhere near his level. He isn't even a top 10 back in the league.

WR/TE - I group em together. Pats have an edge with a motivated Moss. With the normal (unmotivated) version of Moss, it's almost a dead heat.

OL - I'd have given a slight edge to the Chargers to start the year. Both are very, very good.

DL/LB - I'd have given the edge to the Chargers at the start of the year. The Patriots added Thomas, who is a hell of a player, but the Chargers have some incredible lineman. Castillo, Williams and Olshansky is about as good as it gets. Merriman is all world. Last year with Merriman in the lineup, the Chargers D was the best in football, even better than the Bears. I don't think adding Thomas and subtracting Seymour (a guy who I called one of the top ten players in football, showcasing more of my underselling of the Patriots) made the Patriots a better front 7 than the Chargers.

DB - Both have fairly average defensive backfields that get covered up by the front 7 of each team.

K/P - San Diego had by far the better special teams last year. The kicking games at both K/P were superior for SD last year.

You really think WR would even be close without Moss? The Chargers WR's are terrible, above ours from last year only because they're young and should get better. Stallworth and Welker are both starting quality WR's - I don't see one on SD yet (although I like Craig Davis a lot.) And I think it's fairly obvious that Moss will stay motivated this year on a winning team, playing for a new contract and respect. If we re-signed him to a long-term deal next year, I would have very little confidence in him, but this year he has too much to play for to become a cancer.

At TE, Gates is great, the best receiving TE in the game, but the Pats have the better backups which let us run the 2 and 3 TE sets for more variety.

The Chargers O-Line I've heard great things about, but when I've actually seen them they haven't impressed me.

Front 7, they're both very good, but I don't see how you give the edge to the Chargers. Merriman+Phillips=Colvin+Thomas at LB on talent alone, then Bruschi+Vrabel I'd say > Cooper+Wilhelm, but that's probably coaching. Castillo and Williams are a great 1-2 punch, both all-pros, but no better than Wilfork and Warren. I don't know Igor Olshansky well enough to compare him to Jarvis Green, but if we get Seymour back, that's another advantage to us.

DB's I'd also give us the advantage, pretty much solely based on how bad Clinton Hart looks at SS. From watching the Pats a couple years ago when Harrison got injured the first time, I know how badly one weak link at Safety will kill a defense repeatedly.

Kicking, Kaeding had a great year, but Gostkowski only missed 3 more FG's(6 vs. 3), and had to play home games in NE as opposed to SD.


If you want to bring up Football Outsiders, it's probably worth pointing out that last year NE's defense was significantly better than SD's and the Special Teams were less than 2 points apart. And in this year's DVOA projections SD's defense was ranked 29th, even after removing the 4 weeks Merriman was out.

[TroyF]

Ummm, what? The Chargers were signifigantly better with Merriman last year. They were ranked 29th for a couple of specific reasons (red zone D among them)

As far as being touchy, I've simply had it with the constant attacks about how I "hate" the Patriots. Or how I undersell the Patriots. I don't hate the Patriots. I don't hate Brady. I don't undersell a team that's won 3 championships. I'm not even sure that's possible to be honest. But go back to the thread about the cheating and there are more posts in there about how much I hate the Pats and there goes Troy picking on the poor Pats again. It's getting old.

As for tonights game, I'm gonna have to drop my projection of the Eagles. McNabb looks horrible. The teamis pretty good. McNabb is pretty bad. I didn't expect him at 100% this year but I did think he'd be able to hit wide open WR and TE. He's playing horribly and you can't win with your QB playing like that. (see: Chargers, San Diego)

[stevew]

At this rate the Eagles almost have to put McNabb out this offseason, and send Andy Reid on permanent maternity leave. I'm not sure what it is with Donovan, but he just doesn't look as good as I remember him looking. Maybe in years past he could get by with shitty receivers, but now not so much. Depending on the way the season ends up, I can also see Reid leaving to take care of his gangbanger children.

[stevew]

dola

Campbell made some impressive throws last night. If he can get more consistant, I'd say he could be a pretty good one.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by stevew

At this rate the Eagles almost have to put McNabb out this offseason, and send Andy Reid on permanent maternity leave. I'm not sure what it is with Donovan, but he just doesn't look as good as I remember him looking. Maybe in years past he could get by with shitty receivers, but now not so much. Depending on the way the season ends up, I can also see Reid leaving to take care of his gangbanger children.

Let's not forget that McMabb had a serious knee injury that he has come back from as fast as anyone. It usually takes another year until a player is back to himself. I expected them to struggle this year, even though I hoped that wouldn't be the case. However, considering the injury, McNabb and the staff should get next year to prove they haven't lost it. If they don't perform next year, then I would agree with your statement.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by stevew

dola

Campbell made some impressive throws last night. If he can get more consistant, I'd say he could be a pretty good one.

Yeah, as you can see scattered throughout discussion last night - as a Redskins fan, I'm very excited about the possibilities there.

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Let's not forget that McMabb had a serious knee injury that he has come back from as fast as anyone. It usually takes another year until a player is back to himself. I expected them to struggle this year, even though I hoped that wouldn't be the case. However, considering the injury, McNabb and the staff should get next year to prove they haven't lost it. If they don't perform next year, then I would agree with your statement.

I was going to say the same thing. McNabb even clearly pulled up a bit on the end of some of his scrambles. As the announcers were saying, he is clearly not 100% imo.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Cringer

It was funny, but this constant yacking with a football game in the background is annoying. You would think it's a blowout the way they are ignoring the game.

Is this about Chuck? I could've sworn I read something on ESPN about how they're going to get rid of the stupid guest commentating during actual gameplay.

[MikeVic]

I like Charles Barkley, but hate it when most anyone else is in the booth talking. I especially hate when they get some actor or something up there. I don't care what they have to say. Barkley at least could talk about playing in Philly. I like how he said that of course athletes take it personally, and of course they watch TV and read the paper lol.

[MikeVic]

So, the Redskins can be 3-0 after next week...???

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I can't win. When I suggested Seymour was valuable, a lot of Patriots fans jumped on me and said the loss of Harrison would be felt more. So he's more valuable than a guy I consider a top ten player in the game but not as valuable as 7 others on the team? Nonsense.

As for the lines, the Chargers had the best ranked line in football last year. They were tops in just about every category you can have for an offensive line. From sack rate, to short yardage, runs around left end and right end. (in fact the Chargers ranked #1 in runs to RE and #2 to runs around left end while the Pats finished #31 in RE and #4 in LE. The Chargers have only one weak link compared to the NE line, that's at C where Koppen beats Hardwick. Even with that, the Chargers G's were better at opening up running lanes up the middle than the Patriots.

Now you can say the Pats have Maroney while the Chargers have Tomlinson if you want, but that negates the fact that Turner also runs amazing behind that line.

Again, that was last year. At this point in the year, weather it's coaching, a slow start, over confidence or an "off" year, the Chargers line isn't playing like the unit they are. Part of that comes down to Rivers and his horrible play.

Either way, if it's silly to think the Chargers had the better offensive line, than Scouts Inc, the Footbal Outsiders, and pretty much every analyst in the league this year is silly. Because nearly all of them had the Chargers ranked as the best O Line in football. And the numbers backed them on it.

But it's irrational hate. I know.

The Chargers did have a very good offensive line last year, when they went 14-2. But if you look at more than just last year, my guess is that the two best O-lines in football are Indy and New England, and that nobody else is really close. That's just based on personal observation, though, maybe there are other teams that have better stats.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The Chargers did have a very good offensive line last year, when they went 14-2. But if you look at more than just last year, my guess is that the two best O-lines in football are Indy and New England, and that nobody else is really close. That's just based on personal observation, though, maybe there are other teams that have better stats.

Denver has an alright O-line? At least that's the impression I got the last few years.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Logan

I'm watching. I like when teams get burned by trying to "ice" the kicker.

While annoying, it has been proven to work.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Denver has an alright O-line? At least that's the impression I got the last few years.

Yeah, I guess you can put them in the mix as well.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The Chargers did have a very good offensive line last year, when they went 14-2. But if you look at more than just last year, my guess is that the two best O-lines in football are Indy and New England, and that nobody else is really close. That's just based on personal observation, though, maybe there are other teams that have better stats.

Over a period of years, the NE line has been the best. But. . . keep in mind the Chargers made two huge changes to their OLine last year, the biggest being Marcus McNeil, a rookie who played at a pro bowl level. Football changes from year to year, I'm not going to base impressions off of two years ago unless there were injuries that played a role. (If Brady were to break three fingers, play through the pain and throw 25 INT's, I'm not saying he sucks next year)

Last year the stats were pretty clear. The Chargers had the better offensive line. We'll see how things end up this year.

As for the Broncos offensive line, it's good, not great. The undersized guys they use do a few things:

1) Give Denver an incredible running game between the 20's. Their size and manuverability make them a great positional run blocking team.

2) Make them struggle badly inside the red zone. (a flaw we need to correct and quickly)

3) Make them pretty good agianst speed rushers and pretty bad against power rushers. (see Gerard Warren sacking Cutler for a safety)

The line isn't in the same class as the Colts, Chargers, or Pats. The problem with rating the Chargers offensive line now is Rivers. No defense can stack the line agianst Manning or Brady. When you have a QB having epileptic attacks at midfield throwing it at LB's, you can. Bress has dropped off this year and the Saints line looks like crap. What came first, the chicken or the egg? I think in a lot of cases the QB can make his line better or worse and a QB who takes a huge plunge or makes huge gains can make a line look like something it's not. (a great example of this is the Texans line)

[MikeVic]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3024857

Let's go Morten!!!

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

While annoying, it has been proven to work.

Unless there is something in a human being's leg or brain that stops functioning after a timeout is called, nothing has been proven. Correlation does not imply causation.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Cringer

Because of the six turnovers the Bengals defense got last week, it made people wacko over them. I kept hearing how it was such a good defense and that is all it was based on. Not saying I knew this would happen, but it is nice to see.

It was the same thing 2 years ago, during the run up to Palmer's knee blow-out against PIT. The Bengals had some ungodly amount of forced turnovers during the season, but their aggression masked the fact that behind it was nothing.

All you have to do is pick up the blitz and you can do whatever you want. Still can't believe that the Bengals continued to blitz in the 2nd half and leave all receivers in single coverage (or, more correctly, no coverage whatsoever) to allow Derek Fucking Anderson to have the game of his career.

Frankly, if McNair doesn't look 52 years old on the opening MNF, the Bengals are 0-2 and heading for a hard fall. As it is, something needs to change fast with this team, or Lewis needs to hit the road and take his defensive "staff" with him. There is no excuse for a team playing this poorly on defense against such a weak offensive team.

[MikeVic]

I like these captions and images:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2...7&sportCat=nfl

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Ummm, what? The Chargers were signifigantly better with Merriman last year. They were ranked 29th for a couple of specific reasons (red zone D among them)

.

Originally Posted by http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/09/05/ramblings/dvoa-rankings/5437

the teams that moved up:

• San Diego: up 0.31 wins; see below
• However, I realized over the last couple of months that it might be worthwhile to project San Diego using only the weeks when Shawne Merriman was in the lineup. The defense was significantly worse without him, and he should be there for the entire 2007 season, barring injury. This change improved San Diego’s overall projection by a small amount — not enough to suggest that they might match last year’s 14-2 record, but enough to move the Chargers ahead of the Broncos as the most likely winner of the AFC West.

Why didn’t removing Weeks 9-12 have a larger effect? While the overall San Diego defense was much better with Merriman in the lineup, both of these negative indicators were actually even more negative once we removed the weeks without Merriman.

Clearly they were better with Merriman, but according to their projection system where things like 3rd Down Run D and Red Zone D aren't as transferrable between years. Those DVOA ratings above where SD is 29th are after Merriman's missed 4 games are factored back in.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Logan

Unless there is something in a human being's leg or brain that stops functioning after a timeout is called, nothing has been proven. Correlation does not imply causation.

Well, if you told me that I could increase the chances of someone missing a kick by 10% if I called a timeout, I wouldn't care whether it was the true cause or not.

http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/...3/mathtrek.asp

"Using their model, Berry and Wood calculate that, for an average kicker, the estimated probability of a successful 40-yard kick in sunny weather is 0.759. The estimated probability under the same conditions for an average kicker who has been iced is 0.659."

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

Well, if you told me that I could increase the chances of someone missing a kick by 10% if I called a timeout, I wouldn't care whether it was the true cause or not.

http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/...3/mathtrek.asp

"Using their model, Berry and Wood calculate that, for an average kicker, the estimated probability of a successful 40-yard kick in sunny weather is 0.759. The estimated probability under the same conditions for an average kicker who has been iced is 0.659."

I think it was the fact they thought the game was over and then had to regroup and kick again. That's not classic icing.

They really should only let players on the field call timeout. That way all the guys out there can see what is going on. Some "secret" timeout from the sidelines is dumb IMO.

Way unfair considering the kicking team can't know if the coach is there on the sideline whispering timeout to the official standing there. Now if they had videotape of this maybe it's ok.