Official 2008-2009 MLB Offseason Thread

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

lmao...trust me, JT, this is a discussion going nowhere. You're talking to a one of the most intractable groupings here at FOFC. All you'll do is give yourself a headache. And Crapshoot hasn't even come by yet.

That's true - we actually care about factual basis, rather than basing our statements on what you heard on talk radio today.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

lmao...trust me, JT, this is a discussion going nowhere. You're talking to a one of the most intractable groupings here at FOFC. All you'll do is give yourself a headache. And Crapshoot hasn't even come by yet.

Saves are important.

[lungs]

Please don't let the fuckin Yankees get Teixeira. I want to keep their first round pick for signing CC.

[molson]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

What exactly does BA matter if the OBP is so high? Did you think that Giambi had a bad year last year?!!

I think its premature to completely kill off Batting Avg as a useful tool. Yes, OPS is probably better, but a hit is still, and will always be far superior to a walk. A walk doesn't score a runner in scoring position. A walk doesn't give you runners a chance to take extra bases with speed or a fielding miscue.

[ISiddiqui]

"far superior" is a bit of a stretch. Better in some respects, yes, but not by as much as you think (I believe in adjusted OPS+ measurements a hit is considered 1.6x as good as a walk).

OBP has been shown to be the measure linked the closest to runs scored, which is the point of the offensive game. So, while its not perfect, its the best measure we have and far better than BA.

[RedKingGold]

ISiddiqui has heard the voice of God. And it was good.

[Logan]

With the Yankees no longer interested in Lowe thanks to Burnett (still laughing), apparently the Mets are considered the leader for his services. He's another guy I would be okay with for a few years. Apparently making a move for Saito too now that he was non-tendered.

[Atocep]

Good old Murray Chass...

Murray Chass On Baseball » Morris is the Man

Morris finished his 17-year career with a 254-186 won-lost record and a 3.90 earned run average. It’s the e.r.a. that writers probably hold against Morris. No pitcher residing in the Hall of Fame has an e.r.a. higher than Red Ruffing’s 3.80.


But Morris won in spite of his relatively high e.r.a. Today pitchers often excuse their failure to win by noting what little run support their teams give them.

I quote that part of the article not because its another idiotic statement by a member of the BWAA (although that's part of it), but because in that same article he says Mussina shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

ISiddiqui has heard the voice of God. And it was good.

[molson]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

"far superior" is a bit of a stretch. Better in some respects, yes, but not by as much as you think (I believe in adjusted OPS+ measurements a hit is considered 1.6x as good as a walk).

OBP has been shown to be the measure linked the closest to runs scored, which is the point of the offensive game. So, while its not perfect, its the best measure we have and far better than BA.

Ya, it's probably the best. I'm not really arguing that as much as I'm playing devil's advocate - but isn't batting AVG a more reliable future predictor of a player's performance than OBP? A walk is largely the result of a pitcher screwing up. Getting a hit is more the result of the batter doing something good. Or maybe that's accounted into the 1.6x of OPS+. If a guy walks 4 times in a game - there's a chance ZERO of that was his skill. The pitchers might have just been awful. A 4 hit day, while not 100% the batter's skill, would seem to be a much greater accomplishment, and proof of talent in a way that walks just aren't.

[JPhillips]

If the sample size is large enough past OBP is very predictive.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

lol - i think burnett will be pavano 2.0 and CC will eat his way to 300 sooner rather than later

I hope so but I dunno. I don't think he'll be Pavano 2.0. Pavano had a couple of above average years sprinkled in with a lot of below average before the career year that got him a contract. Burnett has been consistently above average but nothing more.

I'm surprised they haven't gone harder after Lowe. I thought he'd be perfect except he might be this offseason's Jason Schmidt, what with the about to fall off a cliff and all. That one caught me off guard, I'll admit.

SI

[ISiddiqui]

In addition to what JPhillips said:

A walk is largely the result of a pitcher screwing up. Getting a hit is more the result of the batter doing something good.

A hit can also be the result of the pitcher screwing up . There are some players that will get walks were other players will swing at stuff out of the strike zone.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by molson

Ya, it's probably the best. I'm not really arguing that as much as I'm playing devil's advocate - but isn't batting AVG a more reliable future predictor of a player's performance than OBP?

And a large portion of batting average comes down to luck. Batting average is a terrible stat to predict future success because of the giant fluctuations it can have from year to year. There's a reason a typical BABIP for a player is in the .300 range. 30% of the time you put the ball in play you're going to simply put it where the defense isn't and there's guys that get that number up close to .400 each year based on luck.

OBP carries over very well from year to year when you pull batting average out of the equation.

If a guy walks 4 times in a game - there's a chance ZERO of that was his skill.

There's also a 100% chance that its a small sample size.

A 4 hit day, while not 100% the batter's skill, would seem to be a much greater accomplishment, and proof of talent in a way that walks just aren't. Today 05:36 PM

If I had never watched two players before and I saw one guy get 4 singles, another guy get 4 walks, and I was absolutely forced to pick one on what I saw I'd take the guy that walked 4 times.

[RedKingGold]

I wish the stats-guys and the five-tools guys can just hug it out already.

I mean, isn't it clear that baseball success really involves both quantifiable and qualitative variables?

[Logan]

You gotta figure out a way to charge $13 a month for that sort of analysis .

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

I wish the stats-guys and the five-tools guys can just hug it out already.

I mean, isn't it clear that baseball success really involves both quantifiable and qualitative variables?

For players that don't have enough stats to matter, maybe, but once a player has enough stats his performance can be predicted ith relative accuracy. There will always be players that greatly over or under perform their predictions, but on the whole the results are far more accurate than basing a prediction on tools.

If you don't believe me ask Jim Bowden. I believe he currently has two dozen toolsy outfielders and none of them can hit.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

If you don't believe me ask Jim Bowden. I believe he currently has two dozen toolsy outfielders and none of them can hit.

Just because you can walk doesn't mean you can hit either. For examples, see Burroughs, Sean, Bellhorn, Mark and Swisher, Nick.

[JPhillips]

Of course, but I'd think we can agree that poor average + high walk rate is greater than poor hitting and poor walk rate.

[lungs]

Branyan, Russell. A traditional guy's nightmare.

[RedKingGold]

Philadelphia re-signs Jaime Moyer for 2-years, 16 million. Chan-Blows-Park has signed a 1-year deal as well.

With getting Ibanez and Moyer signed, looks like the Phils off-season re-tooling is complete before Christmas. I think Philly might look to sign another reliever specialist, but it will be a fly under the radar type of pickup.

[JonInMiddleGA]

from today's Tom Taylor newsletter (available through Radio-Info.com)

Charlie Steiner switches from the TV booth to the radio microphone for the Los Angeles Dodgers, raising the “who succeeds Vin Scully?” question. Charlie has been calling the 40-or-so televised games played east of the Rockies, because the 81-year-old Scully doesn’t travel that far. But now Charlie's back to his radio roots, doing PBP for all 162 games on the radio. The L.A. Times carries this quote: “God’s honest truth, I love baseball, I love radio, I love baseball on the radio. My ego is not that big that I have to be on television.” He’ll pair up with Rick Monday, and former Dodgers pitcher-turned-broadcaster Jerry Reuss is out of the broadcasting rotation. Steiner was asked how long Scully will carry on and says “I think it will be, give or take, roughly…forever.”

and

Darrin Jackson, like Charlie Steiner at the Dodgers, is also returning to radio from the tube – in Darrin’s case, for the Chicago White Sox. Darrin’s been doing TV work for the past nine years, and for 2009 he’ll be the radio analyst, alongside Ed Farmer.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Philadelphia re-signs Jaime Moyer for 2-years, 16 million. Chan-Blows-Park has signed a 1-year deal as well.

With getting Ibanez and Moyer signed, looks like the Phils off-season re-tooling is complete before Christmas. I think Philly might look to sign another reliever specialist, but it will be a fly under the radar type of pickup.

Well, that definitely sews up the award for "worst offseason" out there.

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Well, that definitely sews up the award for "worst offseason" out there.

I dunno, they still have more pitching than the Braves, who've managed to accomplish nothing positive so far this off-season.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I dunno, they still have more pitching than the Braves, who've managed to accomplish nothing positive so far this off-season.

I would consider losing the AJ Burnett sweepstakes a positive, but that's just me...

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I dunno, they still have more pitching than the Braves, who've managed to accomplish nothing positive so far this off-season.

Still, 0 is better than a net negative. They signed someone worse than they let walk for about the same if not more money than he will get. Then the signed a 46 year old pitcher to a 2 year contract worth $16M. Oh, and they signed Chan Ho Park, who everyone knows that he blows. I mean, just look on FOFC

I mean, Moyer's oldest kid could be past his arbitration years if Moyer had gotten started on kids earlier (apparently he has 7 kids but his oldest is only 17).

SI

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Still, 0 is better than a net negative. They signed someone worse than they let walk for about the same if not more money than he will get. Then the signed a 46 year old pitcher to a 2 year contract worth $16M. Oh, and they signed Chan Ho Park, who everyone knows that he blows. I mean, just look on FOFC

I mean, Moyer's oldest kid could be past his arbitration years if Moyer had gotten started on kids earlier (apparently he has 7 kids but his oldest is only 17).

SI

To paraphrase from several Mets members on the board;

Call me when Kyle Farnsworth (or the Royals for the matter) actually win something before you criticize the defending World Champs.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

To paraphrase from several Mets members on the board;

Call me when Kyle Farnsworth (or the Royals for the matter) actually win something before you criticize the defending World Champs.

Hey, I'm glad it took us out of the running for worst offseason so far. A couple of bad low dollar contracts hurt, particularly in our spending bracket, but those deals are much worse. Not to say we couldn't do anything really stupid like deal Greinke for a bag of baseballs or extend Jose Guillen's contract, but for now we've got to go on what we've got.

And there are some different circumstances surrounding KC and Philly, most of which have to do with a bunch of money. So let's not pretend that's not an issue. But, c'mon, you should still be celebrating and not worrying about next year. Hell, we figured you guys were so good we poached your best front office guy last month.

SI

[RedKingGold]

Hey, if Royals want the trophy for best off-season, then so be it.

I have no complaints.

[stevew]

Don't forget, royals fans have the draft to get geeked up for each summer as well.

[BishopMVP]

Re: the Yankees going after Teixeira, don't they already have 1B/DH covered? Giambi's gone, but Damon and Posada might have to play there a significant amount and Swisher's there too.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Re: the Yankees going after Teixeira, don't they already have 1B/DH covered? Giambi's gone, but Damon and Posada might have to play there a significant amount and Swisher's there too.

I'm assuming its a move to either block the Red Sox or drive up the price for him more than filling a need.

[molson]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Re: the Yankees going after Teixeira, don't they already have 1B/DH covered? Giambi's gone, but Damon and Posada might have to play there a significant amount and Swisher's there too.

Teixeria > Swisher

I'm as confused as I am about the sentiment that the Red Sox don't need Teixeria.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by molson

Teixeria > Swisher

I'm as confused as I am about the sentiment that the Red Sox don't need Teixeria.

Undoubtedly. I was just responding to this tri-dola by pointing out the Yankees don't really have a big 1B hole - they're going to need to move/play current players over there anyways.

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Yanks had plenty of room freed up by enormous expiring contracts like Giambi and Mussina so we should have expected this. I wonder if they still have enough to go after another pitcher or Teixera. I heard they may just re-sign Pettitte as a back end starter. Not sure what they're doing at 1B now with Giambi gone though.

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

That 1B hole is interesting.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I thought they swent after Swisher to fill that 1B hole, not that that would stop them from pursuing Teixeira.

My guess is they're not really interested, because I think the Boras camp would leak news of an actual Yanks' offer to the media to try to get the Sox and Halos to bump their offers.

I'm ambivalent about this deal - Teixeira's a great hitter, and would clearly improve us, but I'd rather win with home grown players than free agents, and this would almost guarantee Lars Anderson being traded (for a catcher?) as well as Lowell or Ortiz.

(Oh, btw absent the thread, I hope your friends/family from Fitchburg are doing okay - that whole part of the state is a mess right now, in a literal line about 5 minutes west and north of Concord - places like Shirley and Chelmsford were hit, but we had almost no damage. No power in most places and trees blocking many of the roads. You couldn't even take Rt. 2 out to Amherst for a couple days.)

[ISiddiqui]

Sources are saying that Furcal is going back to Atlanta. Makes me wonder what the plans for Escobar are?

[Logan]

Useful piece for Peavy?

[Big Fo]

The Braves have never lost the NL East with Rafael Furcal on the team. Hopefully this signing means some kind of trade is coming.

edit: Watching ESPN just now, Buster Olney says Furcal is having last minute negotiations with the Dodgers. :/

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

... and Olney just reported to SportsCenter that the Dodgers have come back in strong.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Logan

Useful piece for Peavy?

That's the only way signing Furcal makes any sense at all. Unless of course we enjoy having the entire left side of our infield miss half or more of the season with injuries.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

That's the only way signing Furcal makes any sense at all. Unless of course we enjoy having the entire left side of our infield miss half or more of the season with injuries.

Would that be the Furcal who hadn't played in fewer than 138 games since 2001 until he got hurt this past season, or are you talking out of your ass again, Jon?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Would that be the Furcal who hadn't played in fewer than 138 games since 2001 until he got hurt this past season, or are you talking out of your ass again, Jon?

No, that would be the Furcal who missed time with ankle issues in 07 and virtually all of 08 to injury, and is now 31 years old instead of in his 20's.

I wouldn't have given $1 mil/yr for his lower-career-OBP-than-Kelly-Johnson-ass before he turned into a cripple. He's a head case who spends weeks at a time thinking he's Babe Ruth, sub-par defensively and only a f'n moron like Wren appears to have turned out to be would do so now.

I fully expect him to engineer a blockbuster trade for Andruw next.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I'm ambivalent about this deal - Teixeira's a great hitter, and would clearly improve us, but I'd rather win with home grown players than free agents, and this would almost guarantee Lars Anderson being traded (for a catcher?) as well as Lowell or Ortiz.

Ok I'll bite. Lowell and Ortiz will play their last game with the Sox well before Texeira's contract ends. Why couldn't you just keep Ortiz until Anderson is more than ready? And since when is 7-8 homegrown guys not enough?

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

This guarantees nothing with Lars. Lars is Papi's replacement.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Ok I'll bite. Lowell and Ortiz will play their last game with the Sox well before Texeira's contract ends. Why couldn't you just keep Ortiz until Anderson is more than ready? And since when is 7-8 homegrown guys not enough?

We could keep Anderson around until Ortiz's contract expires, but that's not until after 2010, and I believe Anderson will be ready to start 2010. He would still be fairly young, but I'm not a fan of leaving MLB ready players in the minors (and with top prospects the Red Sox aren't either.) And I'm also not a fan of consigning someone to DH when they aren't a terrible fielder.

As for having "enough" home-grown players I'm not saying we're the Yankees of 2000-present, but all things being equal I'd rather not sign free agents, and I have enough concerns about whether Teixeira will be worth 20m+ a season in 4 years, let alone 8, that I'm not pushing for the deal. But like I said, I'm not against the deal, nor for it - I'm ambivalent. (I also wonder why teams are going crazy in 8/160 territory for Teixeira while Adam Dunn is sitting there, probably available for 3/36 or something - well I don't really wonder because GM's hate Adam Dunn, but it's still odd.)

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

In 2010, Lars will not be an everyday player. If anything, he will get the '04-Youk treatment then. He's only gotten 100-odd ABs at AA so far.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

In 2010, Lars will not be an everyday player. If anything, he will get the '04-Youk treatment then. He's only gotten 100-odd ABs at AA so far.

You're almost certainly correct about what he will be if he's still in the Red Sox organization. Whether he could handle more is a different debate (and one not really worth having until we see how he hits next year.) But AA to the Majors isn't a much bigger jump than AAA-Majors, and a number of players have done it in recent years (Hanley being the most prominent position player, but the list of pitchers is pretty long.)

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

No, that would be the Furcal who missed time with ankle issues in 07 and virtually all of 08 to injury, and is now 31 years old instead of in his 20's.

He played in 138 games in 2007.
Played in 159 and 154 in 2006 and 2005, respectively.
143, 156 and 154 going back through 2002.

I'm sorry. Did I miss something? Did Emperor Selig lengthen the season to 300 games without telling anybody? He missed virtually all of last year, that's true, but I fail to see where one season in the last seven constitutes sufficient sample size to make a comment like that.

I wouldn't have given $1 mil/yr for his lower-career-OBP-than-Kelly-Johnson-ass before he turned into a cripple. He's a head case who spends weeks at a time thinking he's Babe Ruth, sub-par defensively and only a f'n moron like Wren appears to have turned out to be would do so now.

I fully expect him to engineer a blockbuster trade for Andruw next.

Hey, Dodger fans would cheerfully send Andruw home. We'll even pack his bags for you.

[molson]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

(Oh, btw absent the thread, I hope your friends/family from Fitchburg are doing okay - that whole part of the state is a mess right now, in a literal line about 5 minutes west and north of Concord - places like Shirley and Chelmsford were hit, but we had almost no damage. No power in most places and trees blocking many of the roads. You couldn't even take Rt. 2 out to Amherst for a couple days.)

Thanks man....My parents, now living in nearby Gardner, were without power between Thursday and Tuesday. But they got through it OK with a fireplace and some helpful neighbors bringing by hot water every day for coffee. I think my father would actually be happier without electricity permanently.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Whew.

Furcal back to the Dodgers after some shady dealings by his agent. Frank Wren pretty much struggling to keep a civil tongue about it all when talking to local media tonight. (edit to add) On Monday night, according to the source, Kinzer asked Wren to fax him a signed term sheet containing the Braves’ offer – three years, $30 million with a fourth-year vesting option. Wren complied on Tuesday morning. The Braves then believed they had a deal. No member of the Braves’ front office – not Wren, not longtime former GM John Schuerholz – could recall a time when a signed term sheet was not the equivalent of a handshake agreement, ethically – if not legally – binding. Instead, the Braves believe, Kinzer shopped the term sheet to the Dodgers. ... “When people deal with you in this manner, they lose credibility,” Braves GM Frank Wren said Wednesday. “You don’t forget these things."

I'm relieved to have dodged this bullet, although if somebody plants one right between Furcal's shoulder blades on his first trip to Atlanta I can understand why.

Worth noting in all this is that Escobar might as well pack his bags. Three guesses who the young star recently signed as an agent? Braves history says he's likely to be packaged sooner rather than later for something, as they are not prone to forgive & forget on things like this.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Whew.

Furcal back to the Dodgers after some shady dealings by his agent. Frank Wren pretty much struggling to keep a civil tongue about it all when talking to local media tonight. (edit to add) On Monday night, according to the source, Kinzer asked Wren to fax him a signed term sheet containing the Braves’ offer – three years, $30 million with a fourth-year vesting option. Wren complied on Tuesday morning. The Braves then believed they had a deal. No member of the Braves’ front office – not Wren, not longtime former GM John Schuerholz – could recall a time when a signed term sheet was not the equivalent of a handshake agreement, ethically – if not legally – binding. Instead, the Braves believe, Kinzer shopped the term sheet to the Dodgers. ... “When people deal with you in this manner, they lose credibility,” Braves GM Frank Wren said Wednesday. “You don’t forget these things."

Yeah, shades of J.D. Drew a couple years ago. Not cool.

I'm relieved to have dodged this bullet, although if somebody plants one right between Furcal's shoulder blades on his first trip to Atlanta I can understand why.

Depends on how universal your viewpoint of Furcal is in Georgia, huh? If "whew" is the prevailing sentiment, is the principle of the thing more important than dodging the bullet?

Worth noting in all this is that Escobar might as well pack his bags. Three guesses who the young star recently signed as an agent? Braves history says he's likely to be packaged sooner rather than later for something, as they are not prone to forgive & forget on things like this.

Well, from context with the Furcal negotiations in the first place, it didn't seem like the Braves were real keen on giving him the job. The issue with the agent just might be the catalyst to get him out of Atlanta sooner rather than later.