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View Poll Results: So, what do you think? | |||
Great but not enough, keep on going | 8 | 20.00% | |
Good enough (for now) | 13 | 32.50% | |
Bad (but okay, we lost, let's move on and make the best of it) | 5 | 12.50% | |
Bad as in Armageddon | 12 | 30.00% | |
Trout as in neutral | 2 | 5.00% | |
Voters: 40. You may not vote on this poll |
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Thread Tools |
07-31-2009, 01:50 PM | #551 | |
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On the other hand, the majority of voters who make $200,000 or more (roughly 5% of voters) voted for Obama. This effect of rich people voting for Obama and other liberals is especially pronounced in the Northeast and Pacific Coast. The point here is that expressing liberal politics is not incompatible with making a lot of money. A lot of lefty Ivy types don't shed their liberal values when they graduate to jobs as investment bankers and management consultants. There have been theories put forth that the "super-rich" tend to be a lot more liberal than you would expect due to the fact that they make so much money that their tax burden is less meaningful to them and can vote without regard to pure economic interest. This seems to have played out in the 2008 election, where the exit polling suggests that Obama did not carry voters who made between $100,000-$200,000, i.e. the group of somewhat affluent voters below the $200k group, where presumably the tax burden takes more of a bite. |
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07-31-2009, 02:19 PM | #552 | |
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I fit your profile and favored Obama over McCain. Much of that was a lesser of two evils stance though. Palin was pure poison and I'd happily pay higher taxes to keep her from ever ascending to the Presidency. Do take note though of how quickly people are fleeing high tax areas like New York and New Jersey for states with no income tax like Florida and Texas. I think most people beyond just the liberals are fine with a progressive tax system. The struggle is over going further. I'm not looking for tax breaks or credits. I just don't need it getting any worse then it already is. |
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07-31-2009, 03:48 PM | #553 | |
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Do you feel that this prop (can't remember what # it is) is what is killing California's budget? |
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07-31-2009, 03:51 PM | #554 | |
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That's how I feel it went (Obama over McCain). |
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07-31-2009, 03:58 PM | #555 | |
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Prop. 13 was something that definitely affected the California budget process over the past 30 years, but I feel that the ability to decide spending with a simple majority vote, outside of the budget process, is just as big. In California, a spending measure can be put on the ballot, and a simple 50%+1 authorizes the measure. But for any kind of tax increase or bond measure, it has to get a supermajority in order to take effect.
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07-31-2009, 04:55 PM | #556 | |
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The odd thing is that young adults and rich people used to vote Republican. The rich liked the fiscal responsibility which would lead to lower taxes. Republicans stopped being small government and there wasn't as much of a reason to vote Republican for them. They killed one of their strongest issues with that voting block. It's why my compass has swung from slightly to the right to slightly to the left in recent elections. There is no difference in the two fiscally, so you have to judge it on social issues which Democrats win on in my book. It's also funny to see that HW Bush beat Clinton amongst young adults in 1992. That has shifted dramatically now which is real bad long term. If you are a Democrat at 23, there is probably a stronger chance you remain one later in life. Republicans were able to get youth vote because they for the most part didn't want government fucking with us. I contend that while Bush won in 2000 and 2004, those victories will hurt the Republican Party more than anything. Not necessarily his policies like Iraq, but the way he transformed the party. He created huge wedges and when society progressed passed those, the party was left with nothing. Now they sit in a situation where they have a rabid supportive base that is unwilling to budge on issues but is also not large enough to win an election. |
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07-31-2009, 04:59 PM | #557 | |
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Somewhere along the line I read a study that linked feelings toward the President before voting age to later voting patterns. So Reagan built a generation of Republican leaners while Clinton produced a lot of Dems. Carter and Bush1, not so much.
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07-31-2009, 05:06 PM | #558 |
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I think it was done by Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight.
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07-31-2009, 05:23 PM | #559 | |
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I tend to agree that this is how the Repubs lost the center(if thats what you meant) in the last 2 elections (2006 & 2008). But I don't think it is anywhere near as dire as I keep hearing from various pundits. These things always go in waves and very similar to the way Repubs crapped away their "stock value" with center voters, the Dems are trotting down a similar path with the Stimulus and Health Care reform plans. Sprinkle in a major international issue that the center feels Obama handles wrong (or nets an undesirable result) and I think you'll see how quick that stock value swings back. While I think Obama won on his own merits vs. McCain, I dont think Senate and Congressional Dems (generalizing here) won on anything but "not being Republicans". Reverse can very easily occur if they arent more mindful of public perception, IMHO. In regards to the Republican part pandering to right wing loons...yes, I agree this is where they get their whole pitch wrong. Rather than being "pro" anything but states rights to decide moral/social issues, small government advocates (i.e. what the Repubs are supposed to be) should be "anti" federal government interference. They should be acknowledging that there are select issues that do make sense to run at the federal level (military, monetary policy, etc.) but stop advocating things like constitutional ammendments for abortion, gay marriage, etc. Doesnt matter what they "believe"...just matters what role the government should play in deciding this. Or...we can keep giving the fedral government more and more authority so every 4-6 years we can see radical shifts in policy depending on who Americans are more "sick of". |
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07-31-2009, 05:26 PM | #560 |
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Dola,
I think my post probably belonged in the Obama thread...but these things keep confusing me. |
07-31-2009, 05:43 PM | #561 | |
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But where do they make up ground? Look at the demographics. Blacks and hispanics are the two fastest growing voting blocks in the country. Both side heavily with Democrats for a variety of reasons. Now as long as those demographics continue to grow faster every election cycle, Democrats will continue to gain votes. I don't see that changing with the veiled racism that goes on in the party right now. You have a young generation who has decided their stance on social issues. They don't mind gay marriage. They aren't too keen of religion being pushed down their throats. They are pro-science and more environmentally friendly. Unless you see a dramatic shift in social issues on the Right, they can't get a lot of those voters. That's a generation they lose. So with many of the base dying off and not many new voters in the pipeline mixed with the huge gaps in minorities that are growing faster, I don't see where the wave stops. Maybe they pick up a couple house seats in 2010 (they'll lose Senate seats), but I can't foresee a situation where they will be in power for a long time. |
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07-31-2009, 05:47 PM | #562 | |
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I agree with what's you've got here. I also think that the educated and wealthy on the coasts are scared of some of the religious zealots in the Republican Party. I know they scare the crap out of me. People in the Northeast don't really mind gay marriage and support stem cell research. Since we all know neither party is fiscally responsible, might as well go with the one that appeals to your mindset on social issues. Last edited by lynchjm24 : 07-31-2009 at 05:50 PM. |
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07-31-2009, 06:16 PM | #563 | |
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This is their problem at the moment...but they have plenty of arguments that they just have not brought forth that can sway black and hispanic voters. And even if a few Repubs have in small doses...they get drowned out because Repub leadership has felt it better to advocate for social issues that nobody that wouldnt vote for them cares about. Instead of pointing out ways that big federal government coupled with big business winds up creating more poor people with less of a lobbying voice...they opt for gay marriage. I dont care if a majority of blacks in California DID vote gay marriage down...it should serve as an example of states' rights doing the will of the people, and why you should vote Repub, not some percieved support for a new ammendment. Not to mention it just isnt the side of the issue Repubs should be on in the first place...they should not be for ANY side, just the process of determining (which decreases big government). This resonates more with people of all races. Better to be "for" fairness than to be "anti" people that everybody knows. Unfortunately...this would be a titanic shift for them at the moment. But it's a shift that they have to make IMO. Basically, be more like libertarians. |
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07-31-2009, 06:57 PM | #564 |
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People unfortunately rarely vote for the party that says, "Not our problem!" I'm not saying it's right, but it's how modern politics works.
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07-31-2009, 07:07 PM | #565 | |
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I agree with you 100% on the libertarian argument. They should stand back and say "listen, gay marriage is not up to us, it's up to the state". Everything should be about States rights and less federal power. It allows them to somewhat stay on the side of the argument their supporters are on without actually coming across as socially regressive. The problem is that the religious side is anything but libertarian. They want to tell people how they have to live their life and I don't know how the party can persuade those people otherwise. |
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07-31-2009, 07:10 PM | #566 | |
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But it's more about pushing "the people's" agenda. Meaning...newer Republican political figures should be for the people's will vs. being for any of the results. In my mind...this is what small government advocacy should be "for". Not that I'm in any way confused that this is what the Repubs have stood for recently...but still. It's akin to "it's the economy stupid". |
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07-31-2009, 07:13 PM | #567 |
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10-15-2009, 06:28 AM | #568 |
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Wanted to bring this thread back to life focusing on healthcare.
It looks as if the rubber is going to hit the road now and it should be an interesting 2-4 weeks as the proposed bills are reconciled. Still hoping for a public option to keep the insurance companies honest. Appreciated Olympia voting for the Senate version, shows her maturity (?) and puts the republicans, imo, in a bad light. |
10-15-2009, 06:50 AM | #569 |
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The Labor Unions have come out against the plan that came out of committee, so I am now officially all for giving it a whirl.
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10-15-2009, 06:55 AM | #570 |
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10-15-2009, 08:24 AM | #571 |
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I don't know if it is even on the table, but I like the idea someone floated of having a robust public option but letting states choose to opt their residents out of it.
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10-15-2009, 08:28 AM | #572 | |
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I'm intrigued by that too, but apparently Snowe prefers a trigger and Conrad and Lieberman are up in the air about the whole package.
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10-15-2009, 08:32 AM | #573 | |
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From what I heard last night, it sounds like the Snowe vote wasn't exactly a ringing endorsement from her as much as she just wanted to get a bill out of committee so it could move closer to an up/down vote in the full Senate. It sounds like she still doesn't fully support the wording of the bill. If so, I support that move. No need to hang up a bill in committee just for the sake of holding it up. Get it out where we can get a final bill and actually know what will and won't be in it. |
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10-16-2009, 06:29 PM | #574 | |
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Story in today's NY Times about Hawaii and its health care law:
In Hawaii’s Health System, Lessons for Lawmakers - NYTimes.com Quote:
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10-16-2009, 09:17 PM | #575 | |
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Would the federal government have to pay regardless for those states who do opt out? Why are the labor unions against it? |
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10-17-2009, 01:22 AM | #576 |
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Didn't Hawaii have to drop its universal child health care last year and within a year of starting it? If I recall they were not able to fund it.
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10-17-2009, 01:26 AM | #577 | ||
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Hawaii Ending Universal Child Health Care - CBS News Yeah, because of a free-rider problem. Quote:
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10-17-2009, 08:26 AM | #578 | ||
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1.) No. Though it would not have to pay for a public option with no opt-out either. The public option would be self-sustaining based on premiums. The idea is that it will be able to bring down costs b/c it will be able to put all of the premiums back into coverage and not have to keep a certain percentage out as profit. This will force private insurance, the argument goes, to lower rates to remain competitive. See also: FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: George F. Will Admits Public Option Will Cut Costs Quote:
The cost of health care reform will come from covering the currently uninsured, and that is going to happen with health care reform whether or not there is a public option. The two debates--cost and public option--are different. 2.) Unions are against health care reform because unions have been able to negotiate great health plans for their members. When that becomes less of a big deal (because there will be another option for people) unions lose some of their reason for existing. In addition, union plans, by virtue of being so good, tend to be the kinds of "gold plated" plans that some people want to tax to pay to cover the uninsured. FWIW, the unions are being short-sighted here. The reasons GM started shedding jobs like they were fleas was b/c of the "gold plated" plans for retirees that it could not afford. |
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10-17-2009, 11:00 AM | #579 | |
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10-17-2009, 08:22 PM | #580 | |
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The thing that still drives me nuts is do not see any reform in the actual cost control. You're still going to pay the cost for those cancer treatments and obesity problems (would I be accurate to say the cost to treat those who qualify for the public option are more likely to have more health problems?). So the unions want their cake and eat it too? I hate the idea of taxing those who DO have insurance plans. Last edited by Galaxy : 10-17-2009 at 08:24 PM. |
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11-20-2009, 11:43 PM | #581 | |
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Should be an exciting weekend vote, lets see if the Dems can keep all 60 together. Disappointed about the LA bribe though.
Heard on NPR yesterday about plastic surgeons not happy with it, paraphrasing "should these women be penalize, I don't think so". Have to find the full script but was not sympathetic to the Drs or the patients. Moderate Dems wooed in crucial health vote - Health care reform- msnbc.com Quote:
Last edited by Edward64 : 11-20-2009 at 11:44 PM. |
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11-21-2009, 07:08 AM | #582 |
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The mistake that Unions make is not that they have great plans. The mistake that they make is that they fight for the same plans in retirement.
Last edited by lynchjm24 : 11-21-2009 at 07:13 AM. |
11-21-2009, 07:11 AM | #583 |
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About 6 pages back on this thread we talked about the cost of this legislation and that the estimates coming from the pro-reform lobby are embarrassingly low:
By KEVIN SACK The New York Times While Congress searches for ways to slow the growth of health care spending, a new study suggests that its efforts may be overwhelmed by the surging prevalence of obesity. The report, issued Tuesday, projects that if current trends continue, 103 million American adults will be considered obese by 2018. That would be 43 percent of adults, compared with 31 percent in 2008, according to the research by Kenneth E. Thorpe, a professor of public health at Emory University and an authority on the cost of treating chronic disease. Mr. Thorpe concluded that the prevalence of obesity is growing faster than that of any other public health condition in the country's history. Health care costs related to obesity, which is associated with conditions like hypertension and diabetes, would total $344 billion in 2018, or more than one in five dollars spent on health care, if the trends continue. Mr. Thorpe said in an interview that the health care bills in Congress limited their attack on obesity to a few community-centered pilot programs with insufficient financing. Congress has steered clear of measures that might have a more direct impact, like taxing sugary sodas and fat-laden snacks. ''If we're interested in bending the cost curve, we've got to go back to the source of what's driving spending,'' Mr. Thorpe said. ''And if you go back 5 or 10 years, it's not technology at all. It's the explosion of chronic disease.'' |
11-21-2009, 07:12 AM | #584 |
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Hawaii has the sort of laws that would blow up the entire system within 3 years. The benefits offered in Hawaii need to be so rich it's ridiculous. Plans in Hawaii would make the UAW blush.
The idea that the biggest reason for good health in Hawaii is their insurance system is hilarious. It's a completely different gene pool then what exists in the contiguous United States. They have a totally different diet, different weather and a more active lifestyle. Having richer benefits doesn't change the net payment to health care providers. It's just an issue of how the costs are shared between plan and member. If the people are healthier then the average provider would have less revenue - unless there were that many fewer providers per capita. Whoever dreamed up they have rich benefits therefore the providers have more money and therefore innovate is just plain moronic. If they were innovating cost saving techniques it would take exactly 2 seconds to get to the mainland since the Medicare and the private insurers would force those best practices stateside. Last edited by lynchjm24 : 11-21-2009 at 07:45 AM. |
11-21-2009, 07:15 AM | #585 | |
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Another principled moderate. She'll threaten to deny the opportunity for debate because the bill is too expensive, but throw in another 100 mil to LA and suddenly it's important to give the bill a hearing.
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11-21-2009, 07:22 AM | #586 |
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The thing that really is entertaining about health care reform is the complete lack of awareness of how competitive the market is. Cigna and Aetna and United work just as hard to bring value to their products and take market share from each other as Silver's french fry example. It is quite frankly idiotic to pretend that just because you have reserves that it's easy to make money selling health insurance.
I mean seriously Nate, if you don't get how hard employers negotiate their health insurance on behalf of their employees because most of them pay the majority of the cost then you should really stop blogging about the subject. Since someone as smart as Silver doesn't get huge parts of the debate, it's not a shock that average people have no idea what they are talking about. JetBlue isn't a ridiculous comparison. JetBlue at times WILL raise their fares quickly based on what fuel costs them. The difference in why it isn't usually so sharp is that, A: Fuel doesn't always go up and B: You can use purchasing strategies to hedge your future costs. Cigna can't hedge against future medical costs with a futures market. It's not jet fuel where there is speculation. The only thing Cigna can do is try to negotiate the best deal they can get with providers and then try to build value added services that keep people from getting sick in the first place. Also, it's nice to use JetBlue... what about the other airlines that are in complete shambles and have used bankruptcy and government bailouts and loans to even survive. Almost every airline in this country wouldn't exist if not for the grace of the federal government. Last edited by lynchjm24 : 11-21-2009 at 07:38 AM. |
11-21-2009, 09:26 AM | #587 | |
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Health care will only get worse unless something is done about it. It needs a transformational change. Not saying either House plans is perfect or is the solution, but at least they are trying to do something about it, above and beyond the $5K tax credit that McCain and the Reps were trying to sell me. Last edited by Edward64 : 11-21-2009 at 09:28 AM. |
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11-21-2009, 10:08 AM | #588 | |
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That's not why the cost goes up 3 and 4 times faster then general inflation. Sure, they are doing something... it will have the same impact as if they replaced the water that comes out of fire hydrants with gasoline. That is also making a transformational change. There isn't one provision in any government option that would lower costs. Last edited by lynchjm24 : 11-21-2009 at 10:11 AM. |
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11-21-2009, 10:17 AM | #589 | |
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Sorry if I missed your answer in previous posts, why are costs going up 3 to 4 times faster than general inflation? Last edited by Edward64 : 11-21-2009 at 10:26 AM. |
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11-21-2009, 10:45 AM | #590 |
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For the first time in years, our 2000-staff company will not see an increase in premiums next year (and only a tiny increase in what the company pays out). The reason is that we have been very pro-active in a personal wellness program (and in educating about emergi-care and generics), so much that we have won a national wellness initiative award or something like that. For 2009, with the same number of people, our claims and out-of-expenses actually went down compared to 2008. Therefore, we keep the same level of coverage for 2010 without having to pay more. Healthcare costs don't always automatically go up, there is some personal responsibility in keeping costs lower.
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11-21-2009, 10:54 AM | #591 | |
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11-21-2009, 11:25 AM | #592 |
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I'm curious as to what's going to happen when we start seeing the next-generation of medicine come on-board down the line. The cost to research and develop these products and technologies will be even more insane. Who's going to pay for it? I believe a MRI machine costs around $1 million alone. A proton therapy center costs between $140 million to $200 million for a multi-room facility.
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11-21-2009, 11:34 AM | #593 |
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I don't think either bill goes far enough to contain costs. At some point we have to realize there's no way to sustain the huge year to year increases in costs. Either providers or services or both will have to see a significant reduction in the growth of expenses.
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11-21-2009, 12:28 PM | #594 | |
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I'd be curious of your take on this...since I know you are in the insurance business...but others who I know will disagree strongly as well. I can't help but to think that one significant way to lower costs is to do away with the $0 co-pays & "everything is covered because I have insurance" mindset. IMO, it isnt much different than the mindset of 0% down homeloans, easy credit, etc. It is all intended to help "some" while dragging down the rest. Taxing, or confiscating profit, of others in order to fund something is not making it "free"...it's why you see massive inflation of costs. I recall a time when "good" insurance meant you paid 10-20% of the actual bill (up to a max deductible)...at whatever medical facility you went to...up to a maximum benefit per year. You had a vested interest in not overdoing how often you went to the doctor, or the amount of tests you allowed them to run...but obviously not underdoing it either if you had some value for your own life. This was all left up to individuals to decide for themselves...nobody forced them. This allowed your monthly premium to be cheap...maybe 2x/3x your dental. So...if you maintained a healthy lifestyle and only needed to go to regular checkups, get minor things done, etc...you were easily able to afford your health coverage. If you had more serious chronic issues, or just a really bad year (i.e. accident)...it was a bit more difficult to afford so you were more inclined to avoid the things you could control (obviously not talking about every chronic illness...but most of it being preventable by behavior). Have we (as a country) just gotten to the point where we no longer care that those with bad behaviors are screwing those with good behaviors...because there might be a "some" persons who's illness was not their "fault"? We don't have a single idea for how to just solve those situations as opposed to every situation? We really have no better solution than to create an extension of government...which will employ people with no reason to create efficiency (you think insurance companies have no benefit to create efficiency?)...because we feel we are entitled to be fat, lazy, and not have to own up to our own problems and stop burdening our neighbors? Or do we just think our neighbor needs more help than they actually should be expecting? |
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11-21-2009, 12:47 PM | #595 |
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I talked to someone not too long ago that had a sister that worked for a place that specializes in CT Scans, MRIs, etc. We were waiting for our LASIK appointments and were speculating on how much the machines for LASIK must cost (started out as "I wonder who is getting the biggest piece of the bill we paid."). I said something like "I think an MRI machine costs around $1 million, so I can't imagine how much these new LASIK machines must cost." Anyway, he told me that not only are MRI machines really expensive, it's also the cost to run the machines. He said that it costs $20,000 just to turn an MRI machine on, so places that have them leave them run all day and try to schedule as many MRI appointments as they can on the same day. I forget the specific reasons he told me on why it costs $20,000 to turn an MRI machine on. And the guy (or his sister) may have just been full of shit, I don't know. I never bothered to look up what he said. |
11-21-2009, 12:55 PM | #596 | |
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Do you have any data to back up these claims? What percentage of people have 0 co-pay? Are people with those plans less healthy than people with less/no coverage? Can you connect inflation of medical costs to more comprehensive plans? You may have something here, but a lot of your assumptions need data to back them up.
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11-21-2009, 01:17 PM | #597 | |
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I don't know if you'd see a correlation between health and the plans themselves unless you're talking over time as a whole...since policies are run through employers and employers want to compete for top employees...which 0 co-pays tend to be more attractive. Not being an insurance expert, personally, that's something I was curious if lynchjim might have a grasp of. Some of it I can probably dig up myself (i.e. avg monthly premiums over time, certainly my own anecdotal monthly premiums anyway)...some of it is just from my understanding of how businesses transfer "finance" (which is what 0 co-pays are in my mind). Maybe I can try to find some data on the relative costs of healthcare, automobiles, & housing to "avg income" or "median income" over time. Pretty sure its common knowledge of the relative "finance" cost inflation in regards to housing...but interesting to contrast that to things like automobiles & healthcare. Difficulty I see is that "healthcare costs" have to include insurance, direct cost, etc. over time which may be difficult to determine (if not publicly available) the ratio of each. So it may end up being a real gray "sliding" bar which you could debate on how fast it went from minimal financing (i.e. you paid a healthy portion out of pocket when you used services) to near 100% financing today (or whatever that real number is...of course not 100% is paid by insurance companies). Maybe I can dig something up worth looking at by tomorrow. |
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11-21-2009, 01:39 PM | #598 |
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I'm away from home for the weekend and typing on a Netbook so I don't have time to get into medical trend until I get home.
I did just teach a class that was eligible for continuing education credit that brokers need to keep their licences and I did 4 hours on what drives medical trend. I'll put together some of the material and post it. It doesn't take someone being very expert in the subject to see that the legislation being kicked around doesn't do anywhere near enough to lower costs. Short answer on benefits like 0 copays is that they are almost obsolete except for labor unions and the public sector. The vast majority of private business has been shifting costs their employees very quickly over the last 10 years. Last edited by lynchjm24 : 11-21-2009 at 01:41 PM. |
11-21-2009, 01:51 PM | #599 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Woo hoo. Finally. The real work begins.
Senate Democrats assured of 60 votes to debate health bill - CNN.com Quote:
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11-21-2009, 02:03 PM | #600 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2005
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Quote:
$20,000 to turn it on? I wonder why it costs that much. I think the $1 million number might be higher, btw. That doesn't include creating the space for it either and the people to run it. Last edited by Galaxy : 11-21-2009 at 02:06 PM. |
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