11-03-2020, 07:15 PM | #5801 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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11-03-2020, 07:15 PM | #5802 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Lathum, I'm seeing several Senate races called on all the sites, and most not just like with the states. Is there something specific you are looking for?
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11-03-2020, 07:17 PM | #5803 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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11-03-2020, 07:18 PM | #5804 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Gotcha. I'm seeing a 15k vote lead for Harrison, but only 7% of the vote and no decision yet.
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11-03-2020, 07:19 PM | #5805 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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I am on the NYT site now
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11-03-2020, 07:21 PM | #5806 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Biden is overperforming by a considerable amount in Texas so far. Yes its incredibly early but Trump carrying Denton County by only 7 is a big deal.
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11-03-2020, 07:22 PM | #5807 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Still super-early, but Biden's NYT odds in NC just went down to 56%. If Trump wins Georgia and NC, that's when I'll get worried.
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11-03-2020, 07:23 PM | #5808 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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I’m not feeling great that the best news we have is that Biden is kind of doing okay in Texas and Ohio and that NC is still a possibility (per the NYT Needle).
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11-03-2020, 07:25 PM | #5809 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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I will say this and be hammered for it, but if Trump wins, Im glad Im a white, heterosexual, married man.
__________________
Excuses are for wusses- Spencer Lee Punting is Winning- Tory Taylor The word is Fight! Fight! Fight! For Iowa FOFC 30 Dollar Challenge Champion-OOTP '15 |
11-03-2020, 07:25 PM | #5810 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Biden seems to be doing better in Ohio than expected so far.
Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
__________________
"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
11-03-2020, 07:26 PM | #5811 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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NC now "tilting Trump."
__________________
null |
11-03-2020, 07:26 PM | #5812 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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60% in NC, 56% Trump odds per NYT. .
This is fine. I really like it here. I absolutely do not in any way need a sedative. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 11-03-2020 at 07:27 PM. |
11-03-2020, 07:30 PM | #5813 |
Checkraising Tourists
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL
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Slightly off-topic, but I wonder how Bloomberg is feeling about that $100 million he pissed away in Florida?
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11-03-2020, 07:31 PM | #5814 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
Same Ohio is a path I didn't expect opening up but I'm not confident about it SI
__________________
Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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11-03-2020, 07:31 PM | #5815 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Asheville underperforming for Biden.
This is like deja vu. I don't know if I have another 4 years in me.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-03-2020, 07:32 PM | #5816 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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The way this is going, I dont see Ohio going Biden
__________________
Excuses are for wusses- Spencer Lee Punting is Winning- Tory Taylor The word is Fight! Fight! Fight! For Iowa FOFC 30 Dollar Challenge Champion-OOTP '15 |
11-03-2020, 07:32 PM | #5817 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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11-03-2020, 07:32 PM | #5818 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Trump is going to win.
Our nation is truly broken |
11-03-2020, 07:33 PM | #5819 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: May 2003
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I'm getting nervous. But trying to remember that as these states trickle in that Biden can lose FL, PA, OH, NC, GA, AND Texas... and still win. That was my original prediction.
2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map But my question is this: WHY OH WHY are the polls and staticians SO bad at this? |
11-03-2020, 07:33 PM | #5820 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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Hate to pat my back, but I always seemed to tell you guys that people love Trump and will vote for him.
I will say, that I thought a record turn out would favor Biden, but I think even more people are coming out for Trump
__________________
Excuses are for wusses- Spencer Lee Punting is Winning- Tory Taylor The word is Fight! Fight! Fight! For Iowa FOFC 30 Dollar Challenge Champion-OOTP '15 |
11-03-2020, 07:33 PM | #5821 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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A tidbit I caught on twitter was that the D vote was very disappointing in Milwaukee as well. It's going to be a very long night (or not, because it's probably obvious what is going to happen in the next 2 hours)
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11-03-2020, 07:36 PM | #5822 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Quote:
They don't really love him. He will lose my millions of votes. Just has the advantage of electoral college. |
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11-03-2020, 07:36 PM | #5823 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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I really hope this doesn’t come down to AZ after seeing FL.
WI, MI, PA seem to be the ticket though.
__________________
Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal |
11-03-2020, 07:36 PM | #5824 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
I'm having this sick feeling in my stomach but it's not done yet SI
__________________
Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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11-03-2020, 07:36 PM | #5825 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Also Cunningham is going to lose the Senate race. It's basically hoping that the rest of the country isn't going like the SE at this point for another 4 years of the last 4.
Last edited by bhlloy : 11-03-2020 at 07:36 PM. |
11-03-2020, 07:37 PM | #5826 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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tarcone, if Trump wins let me be the first to say that will mean you were very right and I was very wrong. I'm a long way from thinking that's likely the way the map shakes out, but if it does ...
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11-03-2020, 07:38 PM | #5827 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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Quote:
Again, in all the right places
__________________
Excuses are for wusses- Spencer Lee Punting is Winning- Tory Taylor The word is Fight! Fight! Fight! For Iowa FOFC 30 Dollar Challenge Champion-OOTP '15 |
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11-03-2020, 07:39 PM | #5828 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Rainmaker, thanks for that exit poll on the Hispanic vote. That better not hold up.
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11-03-2020, 07:41 PM | #5829 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
I'll second this SI
__________________
Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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11-03-2020, 07:43 PM | #5830 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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I find the difference in who calls what when to be fascinating. NYT generally calling races faster than NBC, but they still haven't called Indiana when the others seemed to have gone there a long time ago. I wonder why.
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11-03-2020, 07:43 PM | #5831 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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This has gone from talking about all the paths Biden has to victory to the precise thing he needs to win.
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11-03-2020, 07:45 PM | #5832 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Unfortunately, if this continues the main thing he will need is better lawyers than Trump has.
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11-03-2020, 07:47 PM | #5833 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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Quote:
I thought that at first. But if this election goes south, I am going to be powered by pure anger the next four years. And when things go bad -- and they will -- I will be screaming we told you motherfuckers all the way.
__________________
null |
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11-03-2020, 07:49 PM | #5834 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
Not where anyone wants to be SI
__________________
Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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11-03-2020, 07:50 PM | #5835 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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NYT reporting this astounding exit poll in Florida: 42% are better off than 4 years ago, 20% worse off.
In the middle of a pandemic and an attached severe recession, 2:1 they say they are better off. There is a massive disconnect here if this isn't an isolated or unreliable result. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 11-03-2020 at 07:50 PM. |
11-03-2020, 07:50 PM | #5836 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: May 2003
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It's just absolutely unreal how bad the pollsters/data experts/pundits are. The issue too is that because of the nature of statistics any outcome of course has a small chance of happening and there is always plausible deniability that "well our models actually said Trump had a 10% chance and that 10% just so happened so our models were actually SPOT ON." (Not saying that Trump won yet, but...) It's ridiculous. They have the easiest job in the planet because I could have made a "model" that gave Trump a 10% chance and hidden behind the fact that "well the data and model was actually correct"!
Voting is not a "random chance" event. It's inherently NOT. It's people making intentional choice. Basically the opposite of "luck" or "chance." In which case using models that predict "random chance" maybe isn't a good idea for something that "random chance" has no bearing on. How many times are people going to go along with these polls and data experts when their models are way off time and again? Last edited by BillyMadison : 11-03-2020 at 07:57 PM. |
11-03-2020, 07:50 PM | #5837 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Quote:
But it's truly what half the country wants! That's what I can't deal with.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
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11-03-2020, 07:52 PM | #5838 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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11-03-2020, 07:52 PM | #5839 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Agreed KSyrup. At a certain level, I think this; if this many people still want Trump, and the election doesn't turn the other way hard later tonight, at a certain level it's more about the fact that this is who we are as a country than who wins this election in this moment. If this isn't just that steady 35-40% but half of the nation or super-close to it ... we may have tipped already. And their may be no earthly way of righting the ship.
Last edited by Brian Swartz : 11-03-2020 at 07:52 PM. |
11-03-2020, 07:54 PM | #5840 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: May 2003
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Quote:
Are those just in-person voters (obv more Red) though? Or did exit polls poll the mail-in voters who are more favorable for Biden? |
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11-03-2020, 07:55 PM | #5841 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
Probably because of higher % of retirees (likely wealthier) and they aren't in the nursing homes. |
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11-03-2020, 07:56 PM | #5842 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Why in the world doesn't NYT have a needle for Pennsylvania? I kinda get not doing Ohio, but not PA? What?
Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
__________________
"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
11-03-2020, 07:56 PM | #5843 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Quote:
Yup. This isn't the country I want to live in. And that's coming from a place of sadness not anger, but we've already decided we'll be in Switzerland or the UK in 6 months most likely. (cue bye Felicia memes, but that's honestly the way I feel) |
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11-03-2020, 07:56 PM | #5844 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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Quote:
Yep. Time for glass of wine #4
__________________
Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal |
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11-03-2020, 07:56 PM | #5845 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Botonline just moved to favorite in Ohio -130
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11-03-2020, 07:56 PM | #5846 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Biden looking strong in OH, and I don't know what to think about TX.
__________________
The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
11-03-2020, 07:57 PM | #5847 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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I don't know but either way honestly it is still astounding.
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11-03-2020, 07:57 PM | #5848 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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11-03-2020, 07:58 PM | #5849 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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No, we are living in a whitecentric country that knows they will be in a minority in 30 years, so they better get theirs now before its too late.
__________________
Excuses are for wusses- Spencer Lee Punting is Winning- Tory Taylor The word is Fight! Fight! Fight! For Iowa FOFC 30 Dollar Challenge Champion-OOTP '15 |
11-03-2020, 07:58 PM | #5850 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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Quote:
They explained it a few days ago, it has something to do with the manner in which votes are reported, not which states are most important. PA is kind of a mess in terms of order of and timeliness of different kinds of voting. |
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