The Trump Presidency – 2016

[digamma]

Unfortunate page break...now we have to wonder if Easy was talking about Trump, Un or dun dun dun, God.

[Easy Mac]

I tried to make use of capitalization to make it more direct, but I guess all of them consider themselves deities, so...

[Edward64]

We haven't had a religious discussion in a while.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by stevew

Given the distance of a Guam strike, shouldn't it be fairly defensive-able. Maybe I don't totally understand ICBMs but I doubt they have that many to launch.

Serious question: do we believe that they could *hit* Guam with a missile at this point? Part of me thinks that if they were going after the mainland with a nuke right now, they'd aim for Kansas City and hope it hits something besides water/Canada/Mexico. *shurg*

[molson]

A few days late but I think humans will find a way, like they always have. Every major technological innovation destroyed jobs but created many more. The industrial revolution killed jobs, and people had more time on their hands, which eventually spawned brand new industries based on entertainment and leisure. The car killed jobs but built the highways, motels, theme parks, the car industry itself, etc. I don't think the changes in our lifetime will be as drastic as some predict, and that it's more likely that new technologies will create an economic boom. And the role of government and the concept of jobs will evolve, just not overnight. I think we're being too short-sighted in stuck in the present when we fear advanced technology as being a bad thing for mankind.

[thesloppy]

I think it's interesting that in these discussions of future work, which I see going on in many places, that there is literally no mention of service jobs. If you're a kid of the '80s or before it's pretty easy to forget how much larger the service industry was in those days. Every restaurant had at least one host/hostess and twice as many waiters as current standards. I remember taking cross country flights alone as a 6 year old child, based entirely on the number and effectiveness of the air stewards. Calling any customer service line would result in talking to a person actually skilled at customer service. You could seemingly get a tax audit as a result of IRS dudes walking door to door.

I think that dynamic changed, not necessarily because of automation or cost reduction, but because in the 80s and 90s the population demographics of America were upside down thanks to the baby boom, and there were more old workers than young workers in the labor pool, and as a result service industry jobs shriveled in favor of the invention/uprising of middle management.

Now that the population has returned to a more 'normal' pyramid structure, and we have young workers complaining about the dearth of quality work out there for anyone below 50, it seems it would be a perfect time to return service work to a place of significance and prominence in America (and it probably wouldn't hurt AT ALL to reduce our middle management class either).

Unfortunately there are a lot of obvious issues standing in the way, the biggest of which might be that we culturally adapted to make service jobs a symbol of failure at life, and as such the jobs themselves became harder, less fulfilling, and more maligned with each generation. Reversing culture is hard. Perhaps just as much of a hindrance is Walll Street/public ownership, which will reject any idea that increases the bottom line, regardless of almost anything else.

There are certainly attempts to automate customer service, and service jobs in general, but I think that's one field where humans will always be the best option. I'm sure the figures would suggest that modern robo-service has some sterling efficiency numbers, but the experience for the customer is usually horrible and their efficiency figures are surely boosted by not accounting the immense numbers of customers who hang up in frustration in the middle of the process (hell, that's probably considered a positive feature of robo-service in today's bottom-line financial culture). Personally, I'd love to see a return of human service folk, who were compensated well, good at their jobs, and appreciated by American society, and it seems like there's millions and millions of jobs to be had in that sector, even in the future, but it's a cultural shift that we have to choose to make.

[Vince, Pt. II]

The cost of human customer service, especially in comparison to machine based phone answering service, is astronomical. I cannot imagine you will ever see that shift happen again.

[digamma]

We may be talking about the definition of what counts as a services industry job, but it has increased substantially since the 80s.

Growth Of US Services Economy - Business Insider

[NobodyHere]

So Mueller's team persuaded a judge to allow a no-knock raid on Paul Manafort's home.

I hope they got some good loot.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by digamma

We may be talking about the definition of what counts as a services industry job, but it has increased substantially since the 80s.

Growth Of US Services Economy - Business Insider

Interesting. I don't think it's delusion to say that there used to be many more people employed to directly interact with other people, so I guess it's just a case of financial semantics. I think it could also be a case of their being many more service providers currently, while the number of customer facing service people per provider is at a lower ratio. For example there's now 5 times as many fast food providers in my area than there were pre-millenium, and maybe an even higher concentration of restaurants and bars, but they're all relatively under-serviced, one way or the other, even if on the whole there's way more of them.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

So Mueller's team persuaded a judge to allow a no-knock raid on Paul Manafort's home.

I hope they got some good loot.

Happened in late Jul. I'm surprised it didn't leak earlier and no leak of any findings.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Serious question: do we believe that they could *hit* Guam with a missile at this point? Part of me thinks that if they were going after the mainland with a nuke right now, they'd aim for Kansas City and hope it hits something besides water/Canada/Mexico. *shurg*

I'm guessing slim. I still don't think the mainland is at any threat of an attack. I think the threat is that he just lobs a bunch of missiles into South Korea and Japan. This would destabilize the region and destroy the markets which could lead to a global depression. Japan and South Korea are incredibly important to the global economy. Not to mention China if they have to clean up the refugee crisis a war with North Korea would cause.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

So Mueller's team persuaded a judge to allow a no-knock raid on Paul Manafort's home.

I hope they got some good loot.

Trump's go-to outlets is already starting to trash him.

Trump Advisor Sex Scandal — Paul Manafort's Sick Affair

Remember they trashed Flynn right before his issues leaked. Makes you wonder if Manafort has flipped. The guy seems like a mercenary anyway who is out for his own interest. Flynn at least seems loyal for some odd reason.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Serious question: do we believe that they could *hit* Guam with a missile at this point? Part of me thinks that if they were going after the mainland with a nuke right now, they'd aim for Kansas City and hope it hits something besides water/Canada/Mexico. *shurg*

I doubt they could hit Guam.

I do worry about something like the NW Territory of Canada getting hit.

[Edward64]

I saw the autonomous truck first in Logan and the article reminded me of it. I think long haul truck drivers will be in jeopardy although I can see them driving within the city for the final leg.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/tesl...-platoons.html

Tesla is developing a long-haul, electric semi-truck that can drive itself and move in "platoons" that automatically follow a lead vehicle, and is getting closer to testing a prototype, according to an email discussion of potential road tests between the car company and the Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, seen by Reuters.

[tarcone]

And fast food restaurants are going to automation.

50 years from now, what will people do for work?

[Drake]

Because my Facebook feed makes me curious:

The average Republican supporter in this country does realize that the election is over and most libs have moved on from Hillary Clinton as a failed candidate, right?

(Not even in the sense of getting Justice to follow up on Benghazi or emails or anything, but in the "Hillary and her agenda are evil and dangerous and must be stopped!" It's like they're still game-planning for how to stop the 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers.)

[JPhillips]

“If North Korea does anything in terms of even thinking about attack of anybody that we love or we represent or our allies or us, they can be very, very nervous, I’ll tell you what. And they should be very nervous,” Trump said. “North Korea better get their act together or they’re going to be in trouble like few nations ever have been in trouble in this world, okay?”

As of this moment, they are on double secret probation!

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

As of this moment, they are on double secret probation!

Don't make me get your mother!
{10 minutes later}
Alright, just let the boy do what he wants. He'll learn his lesson the hard way.

It's like we're seeing Trump's parenting skills on display and it all makes sense.

[digamma]

Maybe this is the time for his advisors to slip hi lots of positive reviews about how tough he looks, so he doesn't realize how weak he actually looks and fire off a bomb to make his hands look bigger.

[JPhillips]

WTF?

Q: Thoughts on Putin expelling US diplomats?

Trump: "I greatly appreciate the fact that they’ve been able to cut our payroll." (via ABC) pic.twitter.com/iR5JbHLHZj

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 10, 2017

[RainMaker]

He can trash anyone, including his own party and staff, just not Putin. It's remarkable.

[whomario]

Who wouldn't want to work for this awesome company called USA, with such a great man at the helm ? I wish my boss would be so awesome.

[Edward64]

Trump is playing chicken with the crazy kid.

Some news are saying that removing US citizens/dependents will be an indicator but I'm not so sure with Trump who criticized Obama for telegraphing moves. A retired general was saying generals have a duty to not do anything stupid, my read was refusing stupid orders from Trump but I'm not so sure of that either.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/10/politi...rea/index.html

President Donald Trump reiterated his bellicose warning to North Korea from earlier in the week, telling reporters at his golf club in New Jersey on Thursday that his threat to bring "fire and fury" if North Korea continued to threaten the United States may not have gone far enough.

"Maybe it wasn't tough enough," Trump said during a lengthy exchange with reporters.
Trump said that past administrations had not done enough to take on North Korea and that it is time a President "stuck up for the country."

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by whomario

Who wouldn't want to work for this awesome company called USA, with such a great man at the helm ? I wish my boss would be so awesome.

Let's be glad that the "board of directors" can push him out every 4 years.

TBH, I don't think that is a sure thing. We are in a strange political period right now.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Are you thinking about something (e.g. THAAD) that can shoot down the ICBMs? Bits and pieces I've read says its not 100% (or even close).

Two things North Korea actually is quite good at developing missiles albeit mostly short and medium distances ones. They can easily build dozens if not many more ICBMs the constraint will be do they have enough fissile material and able to get it onto a missile that is where they have been focusing on for a while. THAAD is nit going to help with ICBMs or any thing that is longer distances.

[Shkspr]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Let's be glad that the "board of directors" can push him out every 4 years.

TBH, I don't think that is a sure thing. We are in a strange political period right now.

Luckily, only half the Republican base favor postponing or suspending elections. You know, just if Trump wants it. No biggie.

[JPhillips]

We’re Not Out Of Time On North Korea. Here Are Our Options

[molson]

Originally Posted by Shkspr

Luckily, only half the Republican base favor postponing or suspending elections. You know, just if Trump wants it. No biggie.

That just shows the unpopularity of Trump that only half of Republicans would support him in postponing the election.

67% of Dems were in favor of cancelling the 2016 election altogether.

Two-Thirds of Democrats Prefer Keeping Obama Over Clinton Presidency |

The link title is a little editorialized and from a time when a Clinton presidency was apparently the scariest realistic possibility to many Democrats, but the question asked was:

"If you could grant Obama four more years and cancel this election altogether, would you?"

[Shkspr]

The difference, of course, being that one is wishcasting and the other is suggests response to a non-normative position. In other words, the danger is that Trump might actually suggest we don't vote him out.

[Thomkal]

One bit of good news today: Jeffrey Lord got fired by CNN:

CNN fires Jeffrey Lord after Nazi salute tweet

[molson]

I think both polls were going for a certain response, and used irrational fears to get there. The Republican poll was really about voter fraud, and the Dem poll was really about Clinton.

Edit: Though the Dem poll is almost as scary because the question didn't even mention Clinton. There's a reason the Republican poll included the stuff about voter fraud and didn't just frame the question like Dem poll with something like, "If you could grant Trump a second term and cancel the 2020 election altogether, would you?"

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

One bit of good news today: Jeffrey Lord got fired by CNN:

CNN fires Jeffrey Lord after Nazi salute tweet

Personally I found his tweet funny.

[Easy Mac]

We're all going to die because 46% of America picked the dumbest possible people to lead the country.

Here’s the Memo That Blew Up the NSC* | Foreign Policy

Military solutions are now fully in place,locked and loaded,should North Korea act unwisely. Hopefully Kim Jong Un will find another path!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 11, 2017

[Edward64]

At least moving in the right direction trying to reign in NK by China.

China warns North Korea: You’re on your own if you go after the United States - The Washington Post

BEIJING — China won’t come to North Korea’s help if it launches missiles threatening U.S. soil and there is retaliation, a state-owned newspaper warned on Friday, but it would intervene if Washington strikes first.

The Global Times newspaper is not an official mouthpiece of the Communist Party, but in this case its editorial probably does reflect government policy and can be considered “semiofficial,” experts said.

[Easy Mac]

There's no logical reason for China to get involved at all. What reason do they have to help us, NK isn't going to attack them. Helping us or not, Trump will continue to blame China for 33% of the problems with the economy.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

There's no logical reason for China to get involved at all. What reason do they have to help us, NK isn't going to attack them. Helping us or not, Trump will continue to blame China for 33% of the problems with the economy.

If something bad happens, the fear is there will be a bunch of NK flowing across the Chinese border in addition to global economic & market instability

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

We're all going to die because 46% of America picked the dumbest possible people to lead the country.

We've all made "Darwin Award" jokes about dumbasses who tried to strap rockets to their backs, etc, right?

Perhaps the same principle applies here, on a national level. Ugh.

[JPhillips]

I know both parties are well past the point of caring about war powers, but there's no way the founders intended for the President to be able to strike a foreign state preemptively without Congressional approval.

[albionmoonlight]

Dan Carlin did a hardcore history episode a few months back called Destroyer of Worlds about the development of nuclear weapons. It is worth listening to now.

The idea of one guy having the unchecked power to launch them seems insane. But if you look at how these weapons developed and apply game theory to the situation, you can see how we ended up here.

The check on the system isn't to put layers between the president and the nukes. It is to not have elected a nuclear-bomb-obsessed insecure narcissist with the IQ of a salt shaker to be the president.

[Kodos]

Hey. Go easy on salt shakers!

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

There's no logical reason for China to get involved at all. What reason do they have to help us, NK isn't going to attack them. Helping us or not, Trump will continue to blame China for 33% of the problems with the economy.

War is bad for China but so is peace and prosperity for North Korea. Making sure North Korea keeps up what they're doing without destabilizing the region is what's best for China.

[stevew]

Let's see if this is in the correct format

SWIM might be, in theory, in favor of a military coup at this point. SWIM really thinks that unless adults step in, that The manbaby is going to get a ton of people killed. SWIM thinks that our nation is probably underestimating NK.

[CrescentMoonie]

Kid Rock gains GOP backing for U.S. Senate run - POLITICO

[Edward64]

Not sure what to think, this seemed to have come out of nowhere. Obviously less dangerous than NK and most of them might actually welcome us.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/11/politi...rea/index.html

President Donald Trump on Friday would not rule out the possibility of a military intervention in Venezuela.

Asked about the possibility of a military intervention in response to a mounting crisis in the country, the President said that is something the United States "certainly could pursue."

"We have many options for Venezuela. And by the way, I am not going to rule out a military option," Trump said. "We have many options for Venezuela. This is our neighbor. You know, we are all over the world and we have troops all over the world in places that are very, very far away. Venezuela is not very far away and the people are suffering, and they are dying. We have many options for Venezuela, including a possible military option if necessary."

[RainMaker]

I guess Venezuela is on the table too.

Trump threatens Venezuela with 'military option' | Reuters

Remember when Hillary was going to get us into some wars and that's why we should vote for the isolationist Trump?

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Not sure what to think, this seemed to have come out of nowhere. Obviously less dangerous than NK and most of them might actually welcome us.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/11/politi...rea/index.html

There does come a point where the cost in both staging intervention and aftercare for the veterans of these conflicts becomes unsustainable. And this is both in dollars and the health/resiliency of our armed forces. Our military kind of needs a break.

Hell sex feels good, but after 10 straight years of it, you start to chafe a bit

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

There does come a point where the cost in both staging intervention and aftercare for the veterans of these conflicts becomes unsustainable. And this is both in dollars and the health/resiliency of our armed forces. Our military kind of needs a break.

Hell sex feels good, but after 10 straight years of it, you start to chafe a bit

Temporary heel spurs only knows options that make people talk about how awesome his power is which makes his dick hard. The military advisors will never talk about it or bring it up because it's job security and budget security.

[Radii]

We need as many invasion options as possible for when the heat gets turned up on the russia investigation again.

[Easy Mac]

as long as we get a video game classic a la contra out of it, i'll allow it.