11-03-2020, 07:00 AM | #5601 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Trafalgar, Susqueanna, Insider Advantage and Rasmussen are all right wing pollsters and they're all included in the PA average to make it look close.
Last edited by Jas_lov : 11-03-2020 at 07:03 AM. |
11-03-2020, 07:00 AM | #5602 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Land O Lakes FL
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Any initiatives down the ballot that you guys are keeping an eye on? Florida has three for me.
Amendment 1 wants to change the state constitution to say that ONLY citizens who are 18 years old can vote in Florida as opposed to the current EVERY citizen. I have no idea why we need to make this change. The Governor has no idea why we need to make this change. This allows me to jump to Amendment 4. Amendment 4 will require voter approved constitutional amendments to be approved by voters in two general elections instead of one. Supporters say this is to prevent frivolous amendments from becoming law. The opposition see this as an attempt to make it harder for initiatives such as the restoring of felon voting rights and the legalization of medical marijuana to become law. Amendment 3 is to move from closed primaries to top two primaries. Of course, the R's and D's are opposing this amendment,
__________________
"The blind soldier fought for me in this war. The least I can do now is fight for him. I have eyes. He hasn’t. I have a voice on the radio, he hasn’t. I was born a white man. And until a colored man is a full citizen, like me, I haven’t the leisure to enjoy the freedom that colored man risked his life to maintain for me. I don’t own what I have until he owns an equal share of it. Until somebody beats me and blinds me, I am in his debt."- Orson Welles August 11, 1946 |
11-03-2020, 07:03 AM | #5603 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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He HATES being President. He just wants to watch Fox News and shitpost and grift and have crowds worship him without all of these boring responsibilities. I think that he gets that he can have everything he likes about the job and none of the bad stuff as the head of Trump TV. But he is incapable of admitting defeat. |
11-03-2020, 07:12 AM | #5604 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Recreational weed on the ballot here in Jersey. It is so funny to read comments on social media about how this will be the destruction of the free world as we know it if it passes.
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11-03-2020, 07:17 AM | #5605 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
That's where I've been for a while, but I'm - tenatively - leaning to the side where it's going be more one-sided. I.e. Georgia, Texas, flipping and Biden getting to around 400 EV. The turnout numbers just look so large that I don't think there's going to be enough Republican votes to even make it competitive. If there's more Trump support on election day than I expect, then I think you're right on the money here. |
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11-03-2020, 07:17 AM | #5606 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2004
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Quote:
Colorado 115 is a 22 week abortion ban with no exceptions. It is interesting as this will b the most liberal state to take up that so far. I expect to go down in flames pretty easily. |
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11-03-2020, 07:18 AM | #5607 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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For reference later, 538's numbers at shutdown time:
OVL: 89/10 Here are the states where the favorite is under 90% AK: 85/15 Trump AZ: 68/32 Biden FL: 69/31 Biden GA: 58/42 Biden IA: 60/40 Trump MT: 82/18 Trump NC: 64/36 Biden NH: 89/11 Biden NV: 88/12 Biden OH: 55/45 Trump PA: 84/16 Biden TX: 62/38 Trump NOTABLES MISSING FROM ABOVE WI: 94/6 MI: 95/5
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! Last edited by Ben E Lou : 11-03-2020 at 07:26 AM. |
11-03-2020, 07:21 AM | #5608 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
Alaska is 85/15 Trump |
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11-03-2020, 07:23 AM | #5609 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
I think it's close but I think it'll fall short by about 2%. I don't see the math there. I'm ok being wrong, though. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" Last edited by sterlingice : 11-03-2020 at 07:24 AM. |
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11-03-2020, 07:24 AM | #5610 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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__________________
The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
11-03-2020, 07:27 AM | #5611 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Fixed, and added WI/MI as "notables missing," as they are well over 90%.
__________________
The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
11-03-2020, 07:29 AM | #5612 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Quote:
Interesting. That would probably explain it.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
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11-03-2020, 07:29 AM | #5613 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
Yeah, that tweet with Biden's own internal numbers yesterday had them losing the early vote in TX by 2%. I don't know how that jibes with a win today, but it doesn't seem like it to me.
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My listening habits |
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11-03-2020, 07:39 AM | #5614 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
I'm just going on my own simple math from yesterday or two days ago, whenever that was based on early voter turnout. That said, if people shift their preferences from Beto/Cruz just a point or two, Texas is in play. I think that's possible but unlikely - there are probably some Trump voters who would vote against Cruz and by 2018, you probably knew if you hated Trumpism already, and turnout was a bit lower. However, the increased turnout of young people and the pandemic/economic downturn could prove me wrong. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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11-03-2020, 07:55 AM | #5615 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Speaking of those little states at the bottom, there's something I can't recall. I know there have been brouhahas in the past when Presidential elections were called before polls close in some states. What if Biden takes FL/NC by, say, 10:30pm? The west coast closes at 11. Do the networks have an obligation to hold the obvious calls of Cali/Wash/Oregon--the ones that would put Biden over 270 in that scenario--until Hawaii closes their polls?
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
11-03-2020, 07:56 AM | #5616 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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In all seriousness, who waited to vote today? Yes, your procrastinators and your "today is election day and I'm voting today because I've always done it this way" people, but my greatest fear is it's mostly MAGA people left to vote. I don't have any idea why on earth someone would willingly wait until today to vote.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-03-2020, 08:00 AM | #5617 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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My wife and I waited to vote in person today. We want our votes to be counted as early as possible. Plus, coronavirus isn't too bad here at the moment.
And as you might guess, they won't be MAGA votes. Last edited by Kodos : 11-03-2020 at 08:01 AM. |
11-03-2020, 08:01 AM | #5618 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2013
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I am going to need a lot of rum and a big bucket of KFC to get through tonight.
__________________
"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
11-03-2020, 08:06 AM | #5619 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
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Voting today. Too hard to get to county election place and didn’t feel need to mail in given those concerns. Live in relative small suburb and don’t think lines will be too bad. I’ll let you know about the lines in about 2 hours. Company also lets us take time off to vote no questions asked.
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"It's a great day for hockey" - "Badger" Bob Johnson |
11-03-2020, 08:12 AM | #5620 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2004
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11-03-2020, 08:13 AM | #5621 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Me - I always vote in person, I like it doing it that way, and my polling place is a well-oiled machine which rarely has a line so - why wouldn't I? Speaking of which ... just voted, and today there was a line. This is anecdotal, but we're definitely in Trump country here. Democrats don't even waste their time running for county offices, so if you win the Republican primary you're in. Busiest I've seen this poll location going back several election cycles and most of the others there agreed with that assessment; one worker said it wasn't much different than '16. Still, this was a big surprise to me given now much this area did not turn out in the '18 midterms. I'm seeing it as evidence of the polarizing effect the last year's events have had. If this ends up being a general trend, maybe Biden just has a solid victory here instead of a blowout, but I still see no way - even extrapolating - that it's likely to overcome all the early voting going the other way. There's just more numbers on that side. |
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11-03-2020, 08:16 AM | #5622 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
In Texas, you don't have much of an excuse. Early voting is fairly plentiful and lines are much shorter than Election Day - it's just easier. There's a reason why people had done it before But I know a lot of states don't have that robust of an Early Voting system and The President has definitely sewed as many seeds of doubt about vote by mail as possible. Even with a pandemic, I can see where "vote in person on Election Day" has the best chance of your vote being counted. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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11-03-2020, 08:16 AM | #5623 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Quote:
I remember that they called Obama over McCain when California closed. So I think that a state needs to close to call it, but if a candidate is >270 with called states, they call the whole thing |
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11-03-2020, 08:16 AM | #5624 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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I guess it depends on whether your state has early in-person voting. Certainly I understand voting today versus absentee ballot if those were your only choices. We've had 3 weeks here in KY to vote (including Saturdays) - I don't know why a single person would vote today.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-03-2020, 08:17 AM | #5625 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Quote:
I am still amazed/impressed that the GOP is having such high turnout. Normally, the people in charge get complacent. Their media has done a great job of keeping them engaged. |
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11-03-2020, 08:21 AM | #5626 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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CT doesn't have early voting, so it was either voting in person today, or doing the mail-in ballots. We have the mail-in ballots, but like someone mentioned, the best chance of our vote counting seems to be voting in person.
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11-03-2020, 08:22 AM | #5627 | |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Quote:
Fixed that for you. |
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11-03-2020, 08:23 AM | #5628 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
I really wish a new voting rights act were towards the top of the priorities of the next four years. Move Election Day to a Saturday, mandatory requirements around every voter getting a paper receipt of who they voted for, and mandatory free voter ID cards with a very easy program to get them. Then set up a bunch of rules for counties with populations >100K (or something like that - reasonable number, tho, not like 500K where hardly any counties fall into this): make 2-3 weeks of Early Voting with reasonable hours mandatory, must have a polling place within 3 miles of every house/apartment, must have X polling places for every Y amount of population, etc. Stop making our elections look like a banana republic so people can stop trying to rule it like one. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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11-03-2020, 08:43 AM | #5629 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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11-03-2020, 08:43 AM | #5630 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Oct 2020
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About 500 people in line to vote at one polling place when I dropped my kid off at school at 7. Early voting and mail has been going for quite some time, but I guess people just like cold lines.
Around us in SC, there's a clear delineation of support depending on which side of downtown you live. Our side, it's 20 to 1 Biden to Trump signs with house prices between 300-800k. The other side of downtown, they don't have signs, just million dollar houses. |
11-03-2020, 08:44 AM | #5631 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
My company allows for people to take the time to vote on Election Day. Yesterday afternoon, my VP sent out an email to everyone telling them they were excused to go vote today. He has people in 4-5 different locations across the US so polling options vary.
__________________
Why choose failure when success is an option? |
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11-03-2020, 08:46 AM | #5632 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
aren't companies legally required to provide people time off to vote? |
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11-03-2020, 08:56 AM | #5633 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
Not all states have these laws. Indiana is one of the states that doesn't. Can I take off time from work to vote? State-by-state guide - Business Insider
__________________
Why choose failure when success is an option? |
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11-03-2020, 08:57 AM | #5634 | ||
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
As we all know Colorado and Washington state are complete shitholes because of weed . Quote:
Hahahaha... I mean, yes, they are... but no one ever enforces it.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
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11-03-2020, 08:57 AM | #5635 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
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Quote:
Yeah, but what is "legally required to do anything" in an "at will" state where they can fire you for any reason? Like they literally can't fire you for voting but they can fire you "just because" and the reason might be because you agitated for time for voting. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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11-03-2020, 09:00 AM | #5636 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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One thing I've seen mentioned in a couple places is how partisan RCP has been as this polling season closed. They've phased out some really strong polls in favor of right wing polls that makes the election look far more competitive than it should be. For example their 2 week tolling average hasn't really been that. They've kept trafalgar polls in the average longer than far more accurate polls.
It's like they're trying to hedge their bets in the event Trump wins so they can claim their model was better than 538 and others. |
11-03-2020, 09:00 AM | #5637 | |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Quote:
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
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11-03-2020, 09:01 AM | #5638 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Quote:
I think so. If Trump wins, then they were "right." And, if Trump loses, then they can say that they were just averaging other's polls. And they can become part of the right-wing media ecosystem, which seems like a pretty profitable place to be regardless of whether they were "right" or not. |
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11-03-2020, 09:33 AM | #5639 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Lines are longer than I’ve ever seen, even at 10:30.
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11-03-2020, 09:40 AM | #5640 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Oct 2020
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The right leaning polls are trying to factor in shy Trump voters. Those people probably existed, but that shame died a long time ago. Shy Trump voters don't exist anymore.
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11-03-2020, 09:46 AM | #5641 |
Checkraising Tourists
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cocoa Beach, FL
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I don’t think Trump has any chance in Michigan or Wisconsin. This election will be decided by Pennsylvania. Whoever wins this state will win the election. I don’t see anyone winning Pennsylvania without also carrying the other battleground states.
In the unlikely event Trump wins Pennsylvania, the deciding factor won’t be taxes, race relations or COVID policy. It will be because of energy policy. |
11-03-2020, 10:00 AM | #5642 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Quote:
people in high populated areas that don't want to travel away from home to vote I'm guessing. |
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11-03-2020, 10:03 AM | #5643 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Land O Lakes FL
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I don't believe this for a second. I admit to overestimating how many of them there are. To say they don't exist ignores what the shy Trump voter has been saying the entire election cycle. They will vote for him because he will speak for them and take the arrows that they have no desire to take.
__________________
"The blind soldier fought for me in this war. The least I can do now is fight for him. I have eyes. He hasn’t. I have a voice on the radio, he hasn’t. I was born a white man. And until a colored man is a full citizen, like me, I haven’t the leisure to enjoy the freedom that colored man risked his life to maintain for me. I don’t own what I have until he owns an equal share of it. Until somebody beats me and blinds me, I am in his debt."- Orson Welles August 11, 1946 |
11-03-2020, 10:09 AM | #5644 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Quote:
I really don't understand what RCP is doing. I think there's a business model in being Trafalgar and just flat out rigging polls to say what right-wing media wants to hear. There's also a business model in trying to be as accurate as possible regardless of what that says. I don't understand the model where the goal is only to be slightly skewed to one side. It seems like that's most likely to piss everyone off eventually.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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11-03-2020, 10:26 AM | #5645 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
Ok, but last election there were 12% undecided voters late that overwhelmingly broke for Trump. This time undecideds are more like 2%. Wouldn't that further the narrative that the shy Trump voter is dead?
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My listening habits |
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11-03-2020, 10:47 AM | #5646 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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It's funny watching the voting lines on TV.
Mask = Biden vote No Mask = Trump vote I mean it really is that simple and ridiculous that we are at this point.
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Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal |
11-03-2020, 10:52 AM | #5647 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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Quote:
So who's winning then-Masks or No Masks?
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Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time! |
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11-03-2020, 10:55 AM | #5648 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2013
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__________________
"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
11-03-2020, 10:56 AM | #5649 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
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Just voted. Line was 30 minutes long. Almost everyone had a mask on waiting in line but that is consistent with normal life in my town. Unlike kingfc22, I'm sure the majority were voting for Trump given the demographics of my town. I saw 1 husband/wife without a mask while waiting in line outside, but had her mask in while voting. No surprise she was wearing a MAGA hat.
One interesting note, is that we signed with a q-tip to prevent sharing the electronic pen which we could then throw away.
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11-03-2020, 11:08 AM | #5650 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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I'm looking forward to getting way fewer texts and targeted FB posts about voting, encouraging others to vote, and donating to whoever's campaign.
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My listening habits |
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