2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Woohoo for the Federal Court rejecting the Texas lawsuit! I had seen that they were already geared up to locate those voters today if judge had thrown out the votes. Glad they don't have to do it now.

There were some other important nuggets from the case

"If I had found standing, I would *probably* enjoin tomorrow's voting."

— Raffi Melkonian (@RMFifthCircuit) November 2, 2020

"Three other points:"

(a) "If I were voting tomorrow, I would not vote through a drive-through to make sure my vote would be valid."

— Raffi Melkonian (@RMFifthCircuit) November 2, 2020

(b) "I am going to order you to maintain records of who votes drive-through tomorrow."

(c) "I am denying the motions to intervene because I am dismissing the case."

— Raffi Melkonian (@RMFifthCircuit) November 2, 2020

OK - I said the case was over. I meant here. The Plaintiffs can still appeal to the Fifth Circuit under the procedures I outlined earlier.

Given Hanen's ruling, I would expect all appeals to be summarily dismissed. But this is gonna have to play out.

— Raffi Melkonian (@RMFifthCircuit) November 2, 2020

No, he thinks drive-through voting on election day might be unlawful. The statute is different for election day v. early voting.

— Raffi Melkonian (@RMFifthCircuit) November 2, 2020

SI

[ISiddiqui]

Judge Hanan has been known for being a pretty partisan judge. So... it's a good thing that he's basically saying early voting drive thru voting is protected and telling folks to not do it on election day because they may have problems. He could have just not said that part and let people get surprised who voted on election day.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Spoiler: that's only because the USPS didn't deliver any of your mail

SI

GASP!

[Thomkal]

Yeah I mean I won't be surprised if the Republicans try again in Texas, but I think they are unlikely to succeed given this ruling

[JPhillips]

GA African American 65+ is already at 124% of 2016 total.

Turnout is going to be crazy in some states.

[Ben E Lou]

FL is at 69% Biden. It hasn't been that high previously, has it?

[Ben E Lou]

OK, so I wasn't crazy. It was 61% a few days ago...

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Biden has a number of reasonable paths to victory--some that don't include PA. Here's on where he loses PA (85% win per 538), FL (61), GA (50), IA (50), and AZ (66), but still wins.

Also from this post....


PA: 85-->85
FL: 61-->69
GA: 50-->56
IA: 50-->39
AZ: 66-->68


Also pretty sure NC has gone up from a few days ago. It's at 65% now. Definite upward Biden trend in the southeast. Related to black voter turnout perhaps?

[RainMaker]

I saw that turnout in red counties in Florida was way up too so not sure if Biden can count on sheer volume there. Plus we know Florida is going to do some wonky shit.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Also pretty sure NC has gone up from a few days ago. It's at 65% now. Definite upward Biden trend in the southeast. Related to black voter turnout perhaps?

I assumed their model was just polling. If it doesn't include turnout, the massive black voter turnout (esp older black folk) is going to really help Biden a ton in NC and GA.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I assumed their model was just polling. If it doesn't include turnout, the massive black voter turnout (esp older black folk) is going to really help Biden a ton in NC and GA.

I'm not sure offhand what makes up the fundamentals they use, but they've been taken out by now and it's pretty much just state level polling right now.

The only good poll that hasn't been in Biden's favor in Florida recently is an ABC/WA Post poll that has Trump up 2.

[bhlloy]

Closer it gets to the election it becomes pure polling rather than weighting by incumbency and other factors (e.g. economic) IIRC... so this would be expected assuming Biden's poll #'s haven't taken a dive.

I actually am a lot less bullish on FL, TX and NC than I was a week ago, but maybe that's just the nerves talking. 2016 it was pretty clear early on from PA numbers that Clinton was in serious trouble and I expect it to be the same this year... should be relatively simple to extrapolate from what has been counted and when in PA if this will be a laugher or if it's going to play out in the courts. I can't see any inbetween.

[GrantDawg]

The fact that the Republican Speaker of the House in Texas argued against the case, as well as Ben Ginsburg, a former speaker filed a brief against the suit tells you how much they no shot of winning.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[Ben E Lou]

Ok, I giggled.

Dems are up 9 in the polls and panicking like crazy, Republicans are down 9 and still full GOP LANDSLIDE BITCH https://t.co/C0ISgtAq3f

— Jim Newell (@jim_newell) November 3, 2020

[Ksyrup]

Aubrey been Huffin' something, alright. Although it's amazing how many Trumpists believe this is going to be a landslide for Trump.

This is my serious prediction! Biggest shocker is California flipping red! #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/VaUitEGNDz

— Aubrey Huff (@aubrey_huff) November 2, 2020

[CrimsonFox]

I'm back from my final honk and wave plus guerilla sign posting plus dinner at skyline.

So....I did a lot of little honk and wave rallies. Some in burb Sharonville. like 3 but mostly NE in Mason in Warren County which is more of a solid red county and HEAVILY gerymandered so that half of blue hamilton has to be in the same place as mostly red warren county. Yes VERY stupid.

One thing I noticed is that at at least 4 of the honk and waves that I did, there was at least one asshole trumper that showed up with a trump flag. This is not coincidence. They have been given marching orders to be full on obxnoxious and go aftger any biden groups. I never saw ONE trump honk and wave or anything. Like...why don't they sread their own positive message somewhere. Oh yeah because all they do is bully. We need to vote that sentiment out of this country.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Aubrey been Huffin' something, alright. Although it's amazing how many Trumpists believe this is going to be a landslide for Trump.

This is my serious prediction! Biggest shocker is California flipping red! #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/VaUitEGNDz

— Aubrey Huff (@aubrey_huff) November 2, 2020

hey! that's like mine only a differnt color! She copied my idea!~ I'm suing!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

hey! that's like mine only a differnt color! She copied my idea!~ I'm suing!

It is a guy. Played baseball for the giants and he is certifiably insane. His twitter feed is legit frightening.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Lathum

It is a guy. Played baseball for the giants and he is certifiably insane. His twitter feed is legit frightening.

No I really think it is a little girl

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

It is a guy. Played baseball for the giants and he is certifiably insane. His twitter feed is legit frightening.

He's a great example of a shy Trump voter.

[kingfc22]

He’s a certifiable asshole

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Atocep

He's a great example of a shy Trump voter.

Originally Posted by kingfc22

He’s a certifiable asshole

Sometimes things just line up perfectly, doncha think?

[CrimsonFox]

A shy trump voter is the kind that says things like "Both sides spread misinformation"
like my bitch of a sister

[GrantDawg]

James Carville is saying it is going to be over by 10pm. He predicts a Biden landslide. The Good Lord knows I hope he is right.

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[Lathum]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

James Carville is saying it is going to be over by 10pm. He predicts a Biden landslide. The Good Lord knows I hope he is right.

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Heard this today. I think he said Biden is going to win NC and FL and it will be over early

[Thomkal]

So Aubrey, the one state Trump has railed against the most ever since 2016, where his advice for the forest fires there was to rake the forests, and he turned down (I think) the Governor's request for disaster aid for the latest fires is suddenly going to join the Trump cult?

Man I can't wait to see your twitter feed tomorrow

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

So Aubrey, the one state Trump has railed against the most ever since 2016, where his advice for the forest fires there was to rake the forests, and he turned down (I think) the Governor's request for disaster aid for the latest fires is suddenly going to join the Trump cult?

Man I can't wait to see your twitter feed tomorrow

We will see the word rigged a lot

[CrimsonFox]

[CrimsonFox]

https://www.facebook.com/matt.lovell...25359111830102

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Lathum

It is a guy. Played baseball for the giants and he is certifiably insane. His twitter feed is legit frightening.

Aubrey Huff is a world class douche bag, I would love to give him a free BJJ lesson!

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Aubrey Huff is a world class douche bag, I would love to give him a free BJJ lesson!

I was about to say, whoa there tiger, but, then I saw the second 'j'.

[bhlloy]

Tonight feels very much like the calm before the storm... maybe it's the meds I'm taking for my back. I hope I'm wrong but feels like the next month+ is going to be written about in history books no matter what happens.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

I was about to say, whoa there tiger, but, then I saw the second 'j'.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

OK, so I wasn't crazy. It was 61% a few days ago...Also from this post....


PA: 85-->85
FL: 61-->69
GA: 50-->56
IA: 50-->39
AZ: 66-->68


Also pretty sure NC has gone up from a few days ago. It's at 65% now. Definite upward Biden trend in the southeast. Related to black voter turnout perhaps?

see this is what I never understood. How both Louisiana and Mississippi and like all these deep south states are always red when I thought they had quite a heavy african american and probably latino population. Am I wrong?
Have I watched too much TV?

[CrimsonFox]

so like have all democrats voted already? Is all that's left are republicans and old people that don't want to drive anywhere to the early voting polling stations and didn't trust mailin?

[wustin]

So these southeast spikes for biden is why all of a sudden these black and/or hip hop artists have started announcing their endorsements for trump? Trump is that desperate?

[QuikSand]

Honestly, I think they throw out a variety of flim flam in the last throes of an election cycle -- especially the stuff that they know really doesn't hold any water. The "Hunter Biden's laptop(s)" stuff is pretty clearly bullshit, so you don't unroll that in July when it can get picked apart and debunked -- you use it as a classic October Surprise, trying to get mileage of the same sort the "Comey letter" granted in the final days of the 2016 election. A sort of final argument that XXX is important, in case you're still trying to decide.

That said...I fully expect the Republican Party (whatever that even means now) to shift gears in its approach to minority communities, and try to reframe their policies as "pro-success." You connect with someone like, say, Lil' Wayne (to the extent there's any logic there i cannot translate) and you can get him behind you based on his thinking that he's primarily a millionaire rather than primarily a black man. He's not going to get pulled over by one of the right-empowered thug cops, he's not going to lose out on an educational opportunity due to a conservative court's elimination of diversity programs, he's not going to have his Section 8 housing voucher limited to rotten neighborhoods ... but he is going to enjoy a fat tax cut for the super rich, and he is going to appreciate more legal ways to make even more money off his lowest-paid underlings.

Cynicism aside, I think this is a productive line for a party that really doesn't advance traditional "minority issues." If Democrats are going to remain the party of government handouts (and they are), the downside is that exudes a future pinned to those programs. Republicans have a lane to argue to minority communities that they are about promoting opportunity and success... damn right they're the party of millionaires, don't you want to be one?

[Ben E Lou]

My map prediction. (I think Biden actually wins GA, but shenanigans prevail.)

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

And yeah, there seems to be a fairly solid chance that NC and FL are called for Biden tonight, and that's that.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

My map prediction. (I think Biden actually wins GA, but shenanigans prevail.)

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

And yeah, there seems to be a fairly solid chance that NC and FL are called for Biden tonight, and that's that.

That's my prediction map as well minus Maine-2 going to Biden.

[Ben E Lou]

Just re-ran the maps based on what's likely to be reported tonight. It's reasonable that Biden could get to 283 or 284 tonight (needs FL + either GA or NC to do that.) Trump's 11/3 ceiling looks like 248 from where I'm sitting, and that would mean him winning NC, FL, GA, TX, and OH tonight, then we'd probably have to wait on AZ (sounds like Wed morning,) and then whenever MI and PA finish. In that scenario, it's 243-238 Trump tonight, and 2 outta 3 wins the election for either side.

[Kodos]

On Morning Joe, they seemed to think Texas is really in play for Democrats. We’ll see.

[Ben E Lou]

So, here's a fun thought: it's not out of the realm of possibility that the FAKE NEWS ends the night with the race uncalled, but OANN calls it for Trump and he claims victory based on that.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Honestly, I think they throw out a variety of flim flam in the last throes of an election cycle -- especially the stuff that they know really doesn't hold any water. The "Hunter Biden's laptop(s)" stuff is pretty clearly bullshit, so you don't unroll that in July when it can get picked apart and debunked -- you use it as a classic October Surprise, trying to get mileage of the same sort the "Comey letter" granted in the final days of the 2016 election. A sort of final argument that XXX is important, in case you're still trying to decide.

They definitely had a big plan for October, which included the lap top and the Durham report, along with an early vaccine announcement. The lap top and a damning report from Durham along with what they hoped would be an indictment would put them over the top.
Of course the problem was Durham found nothing Durham Investigation: How Trump’s October Surprise Went Bust. Then the FDA and the CDC made clear they were definitely not approving an early vaccine candidate. All they had left was the laptop. I am sure they were still surprised they couldn't get any traction from the main stream media on the story.

[GrantDawg]

Ummmmm....what?

The National Guard has arrived in Atlanta pic.twitter.com/q4RikGrfge

— Fifty Shades of Whey (@davenewworld_2) November 3, 2020

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Ummmmm....what?

The National Guard has arrived in Atlanta pic.twitter.com/q4RikGrfge

— Fifty Shades of Whey (@davenewworld_2) November 3, 2020

Assuming they are for possible violence, seems prudent to me.

[Edward64]

I just want to say "thank the gods that this f*cking day is finally here".

[Ksyrup]

So my GOP friends/co-workers who feel confident Trump is going to win are pointing to RealClearPolitics poll averages, which have the races way tighter than any of the poll averages I've seen anywhere else. I don't have much context for RCP - are they a GOP lean site, are they averaging in crappy polls that others leave out? What gives?

[albionmoonlight]

Speaking of October Surprises that never arose, my "Will Obama face charges before Nov. 3" bet on PredictIt finally resolved to NO at midnight.

At 3c, I thought it was worth betting on Trump to be just petty enough to do it.

[Butter]

I was reading something yesterday that referred to RCP as a right-leaning site, but I could've been reading it on a left-leaning site. So.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Butter

I was reading something yesterday that referred to RCP as a right-leaning site, but I could've been reading it on a left-leaning site. So.

RCP has always been right leaning but credible.

That has apparently changed.

If you click this tweet, he goes on to explain

One small casualty of this election: the RealClearPolitics average. It's never been perfect, but I've cited it in the past as a simple no-questions-asked average. Unfortunately, that's not possible anymore.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2020

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

I guess RCP might have made the (probably correct) financial decision that there's more clicks to be had as part of the right-wing media ecosystem than the mainstream media.