Werewolf CXXVIII - The Original Werewolves - VILLAGERS WIN - Page 11

Barkeep49 · 03-25-2011, 10:44 PM

It would have been too good to be true were the matyr in the game. Good news is that we have what should be a solid 6-2 lead.

Autumn · 03-25-2011, 10:44 PM

Next deadline will be Monday at 10 pm unless people so desire it to be different.

JAG · 03-26-2011, 02:40 AM

Day 1

5 Zinto - JAG (52), Darth Vilus (81), saldana (93), dwardzala (94), The Jackal (128)
3 JAG - Lathum (61), mauboy (84), Danny (96)
3 The Jackal - mckerney (66), Barkeep49 (82), bhlloy (85)
2 Darth Vilus - Zinto (70), Chief Rum (83)
1 mckerney - J23 (78)

Day 2

4 Darth Vilus - The Jackal (180), J23 (190), Chief Rum (232), saldana (250)
2 JAG - Lathum (175), Danny (278)
2 Danny - Barkeep49 (203), dwardzala (212)
2 The Jackal - mckerney (209), mauboy1 (240)
2 Saldana - JAG (223), Darth Vilus (273)

Day 3

6 The Jackal - bhlloy (416), saldana (440), barkeep49 (448), Chief Rum (452), danny (477), mauboy1 (483)
1 JAG - Lathum (419)
3 saldana - JAG (441), The Jackal (443), dwardzala (470)

We're likely at 6-2 / 5-2-1 at this point which makes this a rather important vote since barring another BG block, we could potentially have three villagers vs. two wolves + cultist going into D5. With Jackal being revealed as villager, BK, bhlloy, and CR all look worse. I'm still going to stand by a saldana vote as this is twice that he's had only villagers voting for him, he's voted for four different villagers, he's the last remaining unknown on Zinto, and again I felt his response to a post I had D2 was a big overreaction. At this point I would say BK looks the next worst after saldana as he is the only one of CR / bhlloy / himself not to mention saldana as a suspect, his reasoning for voting Jackal was rather weak (I've got a feeling) compared with bhlloy and CR's reasoning, and partially by process of elimination (if CR is a wolf, did he jump on DV with the other two wolves? Seems unlikely).

Vote saldana

Lathum · 03-26-2011, 09:44 AM

So based on the D3 voting all the wolves plus cultist were on Jackal unless Jag is a wolf/ cultist.

Would they bunch up like that? Especially early since the last 2 Jackal voters are known villagers

JAG · 03-26-2011, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

So based on the D3 voting all the wolves plus cultist were on Jackal unless Jag is a wolf/ cultist.

Would they bunch up like that? Especially early since the last 2 Jackal voters are known villagers

Mau was scanned villager, but could be the cultist (I in fact think it's the most likely possibility). He was on me earlier in the day but switched to Jackal when the vote between saldana and Jackal tightened up at the end.

bhlloy · 03-26-2011, 10:05 AM

I think Saldana makes the most sense today, for all the reasons outlined yesterday and the fact that my trust level for JAG has gone way up after Jackal turned up villager (sorry Jackal). I can't believe there were no wolves on Zinto day 1.

My second candidate would be BK, because I know I'm not a wolf and he's got the next worst voting record, plus I am just getting a funny vibe from him the whole game.

CR is an enigma to me. I really wish we'd got a scan of him just to eliminate him from the running. Again he's really quiet and not playing a CR game but I hate voting for people just for those reasons.

Anyway, long way of saying that Saldana is my favorite today and I think we should tie up that loose end (but without letting it get to a runaway, so this might change later)

Vote Saldana

bhlloy · 03-26-2011, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

So based on the D3 voting all the wolves plus cultist were on Jackal unless Jag is a wolf/ cultist.

Would they bunch up like that? Especially early since the last 2 Jackal voters are known villagers

Well the other option would be you (which I assume you aren't proposing) or JAG, and I'm feeling pretty good about JAG. Did we have anyone miss the vote yesterday?

bhlloy · 03-26-2011, 10:11 AM

With the seer gone I see no reason not to reveal now, as this is such an important day and I want to help the village make a better decision.

I am the BG - managed to protect Danny on day 3, just a shame that the martyr couldn't keep him alive for another day. Not going to reveal who I was on the other two days just in case they become targets.

JAG · 03-26-2011, 10:39 AM

Sad to see you felt you had to come out, but I'm glad the BG ended up being someone who was cleared. I felt reasonably sure you were ok as of last night, so glad to see that confirmed.

So why did you protect mckerney N1 (assuming that's what happened, we're far enough removed that it seems reasonable to talk about)?

JAG · 03-26-2011, 10:40 AM

Above, should read, glad to see the BG ended up being someone who wasn't previously cleared.

JAG · 03-26-2011, 10:50 AM

So assuming the reveal is legit, BK looks somewhat worse as the sole uncleared voter on Jackal D1.

mauchow · 03-26-2011, 11:15 AM

Good to see bhhloy come out which means we have lathum jag saldana BK and CR as the last few to look at.

Even if we miss tonight we are still at 4-2 if the wolves hit successfully. We just need to hit one of the next two and if wolves miss once in next two nights we are likely home free.

We have a 40% chance for tonight and most likely we'll have some good info to increase our odds.

vote chief rum

Going this way because he's been a lot quieter than usual and I have a good feeling we'll find our last two(there wouldnt be three more right?) wolves in saldana, jag, and chief rum.

mauchow · 03-26-2011, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

So assuming the reveal is legit, BK looks somewhat worse as the sole uncleared voter on Jackal D1.

Good point. It was so very split up on day one that they each could have been on a different target.

JAG · 03-26-2011, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

vote chief rum

Going this way because he's been a lot quieter than usual and I have a good feeling we'll find our last two(there wouldnt be three more right?) wolves in saldana, jag, and chief rum.

Why CR over saldana? Or me?

JAG · 03-26-2011, 11:34 AM

Here's another Q for you. By your statement above, you obviously think Lathum and BK are not options for wolves. Why?

Lathum · 03-26-2011, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I am the BG - managed to protect Danny on day 3, just a shame that the martyr couldn't keep him alive for another day. Not going to reveal who I was on the other two days just in case they become targets.

I see no reason why you shouldn't say who you guarded. You can always guard them again at this point and the wolves will either be going for you now or one of the cleared players.

Lathum · 03-26-2011, 11:39 AM

FWIW I think Mau is the cultist. He has been pretty agreeable towards me and I know I am a villager. It would be a pretty good strategy for the cultist to buddy up with a villager, that way when they come out as the cultist it throws off the scent from the wolves.

mauchow · 03-26-2011, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

FWIW I think Mau is the cultist. He has been pretty agreeable towards me and I know I am a villager. It would be a pretty good strategy for the cultist to buddy up with a villager, that way when they come out as the cultist it throws off the scent from the wolves.

You are the second to think so and the second to be wrong.

Jag, I am not discounting you or lathum completely. Danny felt you were okay and since he is now 100% cleared i feel a little better about you but not completely satisfied. Yet.

bhlloy · 03-26-2011, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I see no reason why you shouldn't say who you guarded. You can always guard them again at this point and the wolves will either be going for you now or one of the cleared players.

OK cool - just wanted to get the input of a couple of more experienced players, didn't want to make a faux pas

Night 1 protected Chief Rum - this is interesting for obvious reasons. If this was the reason there wasn't a NK obviously it clears him as villager, but there's still the possibility that the wolves just missed the NK or that they hit the woodsman instead
Night 2 protected you Lathum
Night 3 protected Danny
Night 4 protected Chief Rum again (reasoning for this was I had no read on anybody else and I thought if the protect on CR was the reason for no NK on day 1, then he's as good as anyone else)

So take what you will from that. For me it's another reason to go with Sal today over CR (and the reason I haven't really looked at CR in this game so far)

JAG · 03-26-2011, 01:08 PM

I think you misunderstood Lathum, he didn't understand why not to reveal who you guarded N1+N2. Saying who you guarded last night is a bad idea because the wolves know a target they can hit with 100% success. But in this case, since it's CR who isn't cleared, that would be a surprising decision for the wolves to make so I think it's ok.

That you guarded CR N1 and there was no NK that evening is definitely interesting though. He's a frequent N1 target so it wouldn't be that shocking if they actually went for CR, saw mckerney's posts about the BG protecting someone other than themselves, and that's why he went down N2. There are other explanations you mentioned as well, but it's a point in his favor at least as I see it being more likely than the alternatives.

Lathum · 03-26-2011, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy

OK cool - just wanted to get the input of a couple of more experienced players, didn't want to make a faux pas

Night 1 protected Chief Rum - this is interesting for obvious reasons. If this was the reason there wasn't a NK obviously it clears him as villager, but there's still the possibility that the wolves just missed the NK or that they hit the woodsman instead

So either they screwed up and didn't get a night kill, or they hit the woodsman and decided to go role hunting instead of take out a player who they can take out closer to endgame.

Probably the later

Barkeep49 · 03-26-2011, 01:28 PM

JAG - I don't follow your reasoning. Zinto had two votes and a bunch of other people had one. I cast a vote for someone else to have a second vote rather than further spread the votes or pile on Zinto. How is the fact that two other villagers joined me in voting against Jackal evidence of my guilt?

JAG · 03-26-2011, 02:00 PM

Well BK, I'll grant you that all the unknowns remaining to me (sal, Lathum, you, CR) are the only unknowns left who voted for a known villager, so it's reasonable for you to say I singled you out unfairly for that particular criticism.

Chief Rum · 03-26-2011, 02:22 PM

I realize I am a "person of interest", so this suggestion might fall on deaf ears. But we still have two roles unrevealed out there, the Woodsman and the Duke (whatever he's called in this game, I forget).

It might be worth it to have them reveal as well. That would really tighten the group of potential wolves left, with way too many targets for them to go after before we get them all.

Chief Rum · 03-26-2011, 02:23 PM

Oh yeah, and I don't have a role, so I would be among those in the "potential wolf" group. I know I'll risk likely being lynched for that.

Chief Rum · 03-26-2011, 02:26 PM

Wait: hold on that. It says "possible roles" in the rules.

Questions for Autumn:

1. Can I assume all roles are in the game or that all roles are NOT in the game? Or is either way still possible?

2. Do the wolves know what roles are not in the game (if any)?

JAG · 03-26-2011, 02:49 PM

If the Woodsman is out there, he may as well reveal. Either the wolves hit him N1 or N3 (likely) and know who he is or we would at least know we have an extra lynch to work with. The downside would be if he hasn't been hit, the wolves would know who to take down before the end of the game, but I think it's more valuable at this point to take away one possible scenario for what happened N1, as it would help CR's case a lot if you otherwise have to think the wolves missed the NK (very unlikely). My suspicion is that role is not present however.

I don't see that the Mayor should reveal if you're an uncleared. Just hold your power until you'd otherwise be lynched, then use it to save yourself.

Lathum · 03-26-2011, 03:30 PM

OK, so the missed kill N1 means one of a few things.

1. They didn't send in a kill and screwed up.

2. They hit the woodsman and decided to go seer hunting with their other night kills

3. They went for CR, got blocked, and went away from him N2 because they saw something in McKerneys post that led them to believe he was the BG

The thing I am trying to wrap my brain around is if there was a BG block or the Woodsman hit N1, why go for McKerney N2? They would have had an open kill. If they were blocked N1 and thought McKerney was the BG, it actually is a poor move killing him N2, since you would know he didn't self protect N1, self protecting N2 would be a likelihood.

So what happened N1?

JAG · 03-26-2011, 03:42 PM

Good point Lathum re why kill mckerney. Only thing I would say as Devil's Advocate is from the wolves' point of view, maybe they thought mckerney would try to protect a more likely-to-be killed target than himself. Looking at bhlloy's list, you can see that was the strategy he used, so it seems like they had the right idea, but the wrong target for BG.

Lathum · 03-26-2011, 05:29 PM

OK, so here is where we are at

Bhlloy- Bodyguard
Mauboy1- Cleared by Danny
Dwardzala-Cleared by Danny

Lathum
JAG
Saldana
Chief Rum
Barkeep49

OK, so that leaves us likely 2 wolves out of 5 unknowns. If we have a duke and a woodsman we have a 66% at hitting a wolf.

If we have only one roll left it drops us to a 50%, still not terrible.

I guess the time has come. I'm the Woodsman. If I was attacked N1 I think CR is likely a wolf. Either way I think there is a chance he is a wolf. I know if I am a wolf and try and hit CR N1 and miss, I am coming back for him N2.

FWIW I asked Autumn if the wolves come after me and don't get the kill are they told I am the woodsman or do they just know they missed the kill. He told me they just are told they missed the kill. So they wouldn't be able to leave the woodsman for later.

JAG · 03-26-2011, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

If we have only one roll left it drops us to a 50%, still not terrible.

I guess the time has come. I'm the Woodsman. If I was attacked N1 I think CR is likely a wolf. Either way I think there is a chance he is a wolf. I know if I am a wolf and try and hit CR N1 and miss, I am coming back for him N2.

FWIW I asked Autumn if the wolves come after me and don't get the kill are they told I am the woodsman or do they just know they missed the kill. He told me they just are told they missed the kill. So they wouldn't be able to leave the woodsman for later.

The thing is, we won't know who was attacked N1, you or CR, and I rather don't expect the wolves will be so accommodating to tell us which it was. You say if it was you as wolf you would go after CR twice, but by the same token, they didn't go after you twice. The facts we know are they missed a kill N1 and killed mckerney N2, whoever was the cause of the missed kill they chose not to hit them on consecutive nights.

Doesn't it give you pause that your cultist suspect put vote #1 on CR? I'm not saying he shouldn't be given consideration, but I suspect sal and BK a reasonable bit more.

Also, the duke could possibly be dward or mau, so we're not guaranteed to have that role clear one of our last unknowns.

Lathum · 03-26-2011, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Also, the duke could possibly be dward or mau, so we're not guaranteed to have that role clear one of our last unknowns.

I considered that but would have hoped they had revealed as such.

Either way I thought it was time to reveal. Either the wolves know they can kill me or will have to take 2 nights, and it is getting pretty late in the game. Even having one more trusted villager greatly increases our odds of finding a wolf.

JAG · 03-26-2011, 07:05 PM

It's a good time for that reveal I agree. We can't verify that you really have the role (other than if a kill gets blocked after the BG dies), but considering you came out with this without being under any pressure with the possibility of a counter-reveal by the real role and it seems like that would be a low percentage wolf play.

JAG · 03-26-2011, 07:09 PM

I'm surprised that role is in the game though. I think I'd be surprised if the duke was out there too.

dwardzala · 03-26-2011, 07:46 PM

I have no role.

Sal got the first vote so I am going to put CR in the lead 3-2 to see what happens.

Vote Chief Rum

mauchow · 03-26-2011, 08:10 PM

I think that makes it 2-2.

dwardzala · 03-26-2011, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I think that makes it 2-2.

You're right, I saw the "second" CR vote in a quote.

Barkeep49 · 03-26-2011, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

I'm surprised that role is in the game though. I think I'd be surprised if the duke was out there too.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are more roles out there. From a game design perspective it's more fun to include the roles you have than to leave them out.

Autumn · 03-26-2011, 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

Neither the villager nor the wolves know which, if any, or all, roles are in the game.

I think Chief asked about this.

Lathum · 03-26-2011, 09:33 PM

And we are pretty sure there is no Martyr, so that is one role we are down already

JAG · 03-27-2011, 05:14 PM

Apologies for the length of this...

Some posts of interest with the idea that mauboy1 is the cultist (which I do think is most likely):

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Would three targets be more beneficial? If not ill change my vote to one of the top two. I'll be home in a few hours well before the deadline.

vote jag

Asking the village or asking the wolves? Interesting that saldana, BK, and J23 all have votes on different players and he adds a vote on a different player than them.

This upcoming sequence is the most telling in my opinion. Post 237: (bolding is mine)

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Just re-read the last two pages. There are definitely some weird vibes going on with a few people. Quick defensive posts, odd posts, etc.

I like saldana, bk, j23. danny, jag and dv as my possibilities at this point just based on what I've seen early on. If I go with JAG, danny, saldana or jackal i create a top two tie so obviously my vote is somewhat important.

That's a lot of choices he threw out there. I find it very very interesting that my top two suspects are listed first and second, and the third one is J23, a known wolf. Trying to send a signal to them? Obviously not very wise if he got outed as cultist, but perhaps he thought it would be missed being fairly early in the game. Then three posts later, Post 240:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Ehhh.............

vote jackal

He listed six players as his possibilities, with three of them having two votes...and then voted for a seventh that also had two votes. That's pretty inconsistent with his post just a few earlier. Now 8 posts later, post 248:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Danny's vote did nothing unless someone else changes their vote. If he was really choosing between JAG and Saldana and wanted to feel like making a difference, the vote should have gone JAG as it would have been the leader to be lynched. A vote on Saldana is hiding and forcing someone else to make the move.

He was accurate with his statement, but is he also trying to drive a vote away from saldana?

Post 339:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

What would you guys do if you were a seer (I'm not don't worry). If I was Danny and I was the seer I would probably wait a bit longer to reveal. I'd probably start to put a vote on j23 if he scanned wolf and see if people follow without having to reveal. If the vote isn't falling his way then pull out the reveal card to make sure wolf goes home.

However, I will give him the benefit of the doubt right now as we only have d1 and d2 votes to go off which at face value isn't much.

It'd be a brilliant move by the traitor to rid of the seer. If j23 is says he's the seer what the hell is going to happen? I can't imagine I'd be switching anyway but its something to think about big time.

Not that important, but note that he mentions the traitor here.

Post 374:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

If Danny is the traitor we probably should not be voting him as that would make him a villager. No way a wolf would be claiming seer though. If there was a sure-fire shot at a wolf I'd rather go that route than roll the dice on this showdown. But it does not look to be the case. My vote will either stay on J23 or someone else not named Danny.

Again not that important other than he mentions the traitor again here. (I'll make this point later)

Post 421: (bolding, other than his vote, is mine) Note at this time, the vote is BK 2, JAG 1

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I think I'm leaning jag or jackal myself. I've had small gut feelings on them more than anybody for the first few days. I hate to piggy back but I know lathum is a damn good player so his vote is where I'll go for now.

vote jag

Also... how the hell do I always come across as wolf in my posts. In the last four games now I was a villager for three of them and people thought me to be suspicious of a wolf in every single one. I guess if I sound like a villager in the future I'll be a wolf. At least I'm without a role this time so I wont feel terrible if I die this time around.

Now a day later, saldana and BK are no longer in the picture for his thoughts of being suspicious, yet he gives no reason why all of a sudden they aren't, nor in my opinion have they done anything to that point to lessen suspicion on themselves. He also says he had feelings about Jackal the first couple days, yet again he didn't mention that in his post earlier. More interestingly, he votes me up to tie me with BK...concerned about him getting voted out?

Post 483: Note at this time, the vote is Jackal 5, saldana 3, JAG 2 (6 posts earlier it was saldana 4, Jackal 4, JAG 2)

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

unvote jag
vote jackal

Jackal was my original choice, might as well go with my gut on this one.

JAG, sorry I just saw your question posed to me. I essentially voted for you because lathum did; no real rhyme or reason other than I felt like I could follow someone who has good reads most of the time. Before I put my vote in I actually had Jackal down but refreshed and saw Lathum's vote.

Again no mention of saldana being suspicious, switching to Jackal certainly helps saldana out. at this point (now a Jackal voter moving to saldana wouldn't tie the vote, although that would still be a half vote lead for Jackal since he had the tie-breaker)

Post 512: (bolding, other than his vote, is mine)

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Good to see bhhloy come out which means we have lathum jag saldana BK and CR as the last few to look at.

Even if we miss tonight we are still at 4-2 if the wolves hit successfully. We just need to hit one of the next two and if wolves miss once in next two nights we are likely home free.

We have a 40% chance for tonight and most likely we'll have some good info to increase our odds.

vote chief rum

Going this way because he's been a lot quieter than usual and I have a good feeling we'll find our last two(there wouldnt be three more right?) wolves in saldana, jag, and chief rum.

Note how he points out if we miss tonight we are at 4-2, discounting the possibility we could be 3-2-1 even though he acknowledged the traitor as a possibliity D3.

As far as suspects, now again saldana enters his suspicions along with me, CR has also now entered his thoughts for the first time. No mention of Lathum or BK. I then ask the following questions Post 514 + 515:

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Why CR over saldana? Or me?

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Here's another Q for you. By your statement above, you obviously think Lathum and BK are not options for wolves. Why?

His response on Post 518: (bolding is mine)

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

You are the second to think so and the second to be wrong.

Jag, I am not discounting you or lathum completely. Danny felt you were okay and since he is now 100% cleared i feel a little better about you but not completely satisfied. Yet.

Interesting because, 1. He says he's not discounting me completely...an odd thing to say when he listed me as one of the top three suspects for the two remaining wolves. I would think listing me in that group makes it obvious he considers me one of his top suspects instead of being someone he's giving the benefit of the doubt. 2. He throws Lathum in the mix as someone he's not discounting completely. Thus in his mind, BK is the most trusted of the players remaining. I would be very interested to know the reasoning for that. And 3. He basically dodged the questions.

Summary: I think his posts make it fairly clear he's the cultist. He has a record of being inconsistent. He has not tried to use any evidence to explain his suspicions about people, just going completely by feel, and that list of suspects seems to change on a whim. He has an early post that appears to be asking for wolf guidance and one that looks like it could well be him trying to signal the wolves. With him being the likely cultist, I think saldana and BK are the most likely wolves of the unknowns left (among other reasons for them being suspicious).

mauchow · 03-27-2011, 09:03 PM

Jag,

It is very interesting to put all this together; I admire the handiwork and I wish I could see it is for the good of the villagers but unfortunately you're barking(howling?) up the wrong tree here. I wish I could say something else as anything I say will sound defensive but I feel I need to put out this little fire as quickly as possible before we go down the wrong path (heck, it may be the right path, too, I don't know).

If you've played with me in the past I am anything BUT consistent in my play. I have never put much strategy towards any of my votes aside from piggy-backing most of the time in this game and every other game I've played. It's the way I roll and obviously not a good way to roll as it always seems to get me to exit the game early.

I will be honest I haven't put much thought into my voting this game more than others because I feel like there is minimal info to go on and maybe I'm being short-sighted. I wish I could say that I delve into the posts made about vote switches and what vote was made when. I am not hardcore and I think that's where it hurts me most in the end.

Since I'm one of three cleared villagers I have a good shot at going home so this may be cleared up tomorrow night or if the wolves are seeing that this is throwing us off their scent they may keep me around so it screws around with us even more.

Lathum · 03-27-2011, 10:16 PM

I am starting to wonder if we are without a duke

Autumn · 03-27-2011, 10:19 PM

Vote count as of post 543

2 Saldana - JAG (503), bhlloy (506)
2 chief rum - mauboy1 (512), dwardzala (536)

Chief Rum · 03-28-2011, 12:51 AM

We don't lose any major roles if I go, so if the village wishes to remove me, they can. But I am just a villager, and I find it curious that I have votes given the N1 protection and lack of kill. Okay, sure, we have some doubts on what happened that night, but I would think there would be enough there to consider other candidates for the time being.

Lathum · 03-28-2011, 08:44 AM

I'm going to have very limited time today. Still not sure where I want to go with my vote though.

JAG · 03-28-2011, 11:31 AM

In case anyone cares...

After giving it some thought and reviewing a couple older posts, I am leaning towards the wolves having targeted CR instead of Lathum N1 based on the following evidence:

1. saldana, who I obviously think is a wolf, has been on record saying that he knows Lathum as BG always protects himself N1. I find it hard to believe that if he is a wolf and they targeted Lathum N1 only to find him protected, that he wouldn't convince his fellow wolves to hit him again N2 based on that info.

2. CR's post in the aftermath of the N1 attack:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hmm, just took a look at the roles, and it could also be that the Woodsman was attacked and simply survived the attack. It's possible the Woodsman simply hasn't checked in yet since the deadline.

I think it's possible the wolves may have read that and thought he was being coy about being the Woodsman. Combined with...

3. mckerney's posts:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

Hoping the BG was protecting someone other than themselves.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

If learned the identity of a wolf and guarded himself it is probably be best to come forward. I'm guessing the likely wolf move is to hope for a common self guard move by the bodyguard and to hit the same person tonight.

My best guess as to what happened is I think they hit CR and, after not killing him, figured either a. mckerney protected him and might try to protect another higher profile target than himself N2 or b. CR was the Woodsman and got his personal block in. They decided to hit mckerney and, if he wasn't the BG, could infer that CR might be the Woodsman and they could perform their second NK on him at a convenient future point.

Even if that's true, it doesn't necessarily mean Lathum hasn't been attacked yet. It's possible they randomly chose him N3 when they may have strongly suspected Danny was going to be protected by the BG. But in my opinion it makes more sense that CR was attacked N1, the wolves read the posts by mckerney and CR, and made the interpretation I outlined above.

Just wanted to liven up a quiet day.

saldana · 03-28-2011, 11:59 AM

JAG, first, thanks for the detailed analysis. having not been able to follow along as well as i would have liked, it was very helpful

second, other than my "over the top" reaction to your blatant misrepresentation of my day 1 vote, what exactly is it that is so convincing to you that makes you think i am a wolf?

Barkeep49 · 03-28-2011, 01:57 PM

Can someone recap the case against both people? While I've been reading every post, my mind hasn't really been on the game and I don't have a sense of the flow.

Barkeep49 · 03-28-2011, 01:57 PM

Both people being CR and Saldana.

03-26-2011, 02:22 PM	#524
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	I realize I am a "person of interest", so this suggestion might fall on deaf ears. But we still have two roles unrevealed out there, the Woodsman and the Duke (whatever he's called in this game, I forget). It might be worth it to have them reveal as well. That would really tighten the group of potential wolves left, with way too many targets for them to go after before we get them all. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

03-26-2011, 02:23 PM	#525
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Oh yeah, and I don't have a role, so I would be among those in the "potential wolf" group. I know I'll risk likely being lynched for that. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

03-26-2011, 02:26 PM	#526
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Wait: hold on that. It says "possible roles" in the rules. Questions for Autumn: 1. Can I assume all roles are in the game or that all roles are NOT in the game? Or is either way still possible? 2. Do the wolves know what roles are not in the game (if any)? __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

03-28-2011, 12:51 AM	#545
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	We don't lose any major roles if I go, so if the village wishes to remove me, they can. But I am just a villager, and I find it curious that I have votes given the N1 protection and lack of kill. Okay, sure, we have some doubts on what happened that night, but I would think there would be enough there to consider other candidates for the time being. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

03-25-2011, 10:44 PM	#501
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	It would have been too good to be true were the matyr in the game. Good news is that we have what should be a solid 6-2 lead.

03-25-2011, 10:44 PM	#502
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Next deadline will be Monday at 10 pm unless people so desire it to be different.

03-26-2011, 02:40 AM	#503
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Day 1 5 Zinto - JAG (52), Darth Vilus (81), saldana (93), dwardzala (94), The Jackal (128) 3 JAG - Lathum (61), mauboy (84), Danny (96) 3 The Jackal - mckerney (66), Barkeep49 (82), bhlloy (85) 2 Darth Vilus - Zinto (70), Chief Rum (83) 1 mckerney - J23 (78) Day 2 4 Darth Vilus - The Jackal (180), J23 (190), Chief Rum (232), saldana (250) 2 JAG - Lathum (175), Danny (278) 2 Danny - Barkeep49 (203), dwardzala (212) 2 The Jackal - mckerney (209), mauboy1 (240) 2 Saldana - JAG (223), Darth Vilus (273) Day 3 6 The Jackal - bhlloy (416), saldana (440), barkeep49 (448), Chief Rum (452), danny (477), mauboy1 (483) 1 JAG - Lathum (419) 3 saldana - JAG (441), The Jackal (443), dwardzala (470) We're likely at 6-2 / 5-2-1 at this point which makes this a rather important vote since barring another BG block, we could potentially have three villagers vs. two wolves + cultist going into D5. With Jackal being revealed as villager, BK, bhlloy, and CR all look worse. I'm still going to stand by a saldana vote as this is twice that he's had only villagers voting for him, he's voted for four different villagers, he's the last remaining unknown on Zinto, and again I felt his response to a post I had D2 was a big overreaction. At this point I would say BK looks the next worst after saldana as he is the only one of CR / bhlloy / himself not to mention saldana as a suspect, his reasoning for voting Jackal was rather weak (I've got a feeling) compared with bhlloy and CR's reasoning, and partially by process of elimination (if CR is a wolf, did he jump on DV with the other two wolves? Seems unlikely). Vote saldana

03-26-2011, 09:44 AM	#504
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	So based on the D3 voting all the wolves plus cultist were on Jackal unless Jag is a wolf/ cultist. Would they bunch up like that? Especially early since the last 2 Jackal voters are known villagers

03-26-2011, 10:05 AM	#506
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	I think Saldana makes the most sense today, for all the reasons outlined yesterday and the fact that my trust level for JAG has gone way up after Jackal turned up villager (sorry Jackal). I can't believe there were no wolves on Zinto day 1. My second candidate would be BK, because I know I'm not a wolf and he's got the next worst voting record, plus I am just getting a funny vibe from him the whole game. CR is an enigma to me. I really wish we'd got a scan of him just to eliminate him from the running. Again he's really quiet and not playing a CR game but I hate voting for people just for those reasons. Anyway, long way of saying that Saldana is my favorite today and I think we should tie up that loose end (but without letting it get to a runaway, so this might change later) Vote Saldana

03-26-2011, 10:11 AM	#508
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	With the seer gone I see no reason not to reveal now, as this is such an important day and I want to help the village make a better decision. I am the BG - managed to protect Danny on day 3, just a shame that the martyr couldn't keep him alive for another day. Not going to reveal who I was on the other two days just in case they become targets.

03-26-2011, 10:39 AM	#509
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Sad to see you felt you had to come out, but I'm glad the BG ended up being someone who was cleared. I felt reasonably sure you were ok as of last night, so glad to see that confirmed. So why did you protect mckerney N1 (assuming that's what happened, we're far enough removed that it seems reasonable to talk about)?

03-26-2011, 10:40 AM	#510
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Above, should read, glad to see the BG ended up being someone who wasn't previously cleared.

03-26-2011, 10:50 AM	#511
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	So assuming the reveal is legit, BK looks somewhat worse as the sole uncleared voter on Jackal D1.

03-26-2011, 11:15 AM	#512
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	Good to see bhhloy come out which means we have lathum jag saldana BK and CR as the last few to look at. Even if we miss tonight we are still at 4-2 if the wolves hit successfully. We just need to hit one of the next two and if wolves miss once in next two nights we are likely home free. We have a 40% chance for tonight and most likely we'll have some good info to increase our odds. vote chief rum Going this way because he's been a lot quieter than usual and I have a good feeling we'll find our last two(there wouldnt be three more right?) wolves in saldana, jag, and chief rum.

03-26-2011, 11:34 AM	#515
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Here's another Q for you. By your statement above, you obviously think Lathum and BK are not options for wolves. Why?

03-26-2011, 11:39 AM	#517
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	FWIW I think Mau is the cultist. He has been pretty agreeable towards me and I know I am a villager. It would be a pretty good strategy for the cultist to buddy up with a villager, that way when they come out as the cultist it throws off the scent from the wolves.

03-26-2011, 01:08 PM	#520
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	I think you misunderstood Lathum, he didn't understand why not to reveal who you guarded N1+N2. Saying who you guarded last night is a bad idea because the wolves know a target they can hit with 100% success. But in this case, since it's CR who isn't cleared, that would be a surprising decision for the wolves to make so I think it's ok. That you guarded CR N1 and there was no NK that evening is definitely interesting though. He's a frequent N1 target so it wouldn't be that shocking if they actually went for CR, saw mckerney's posts about the BG protecting someone other than themselves, and that's why he went down N2. There are other explanations you mentioned as well, but it's a point in his favor at least as I see it being more likely than the alternatives.

03-26-2011, 01:28 PM	#522
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	JAG - I don't follow your reasoning. Zinto had two votes and a bunch of other people had one. I cast a vote for someone else to have a second vote rather than further spread the votes or pile on Zinto. How is the fact that two other villagers joined me in voting against Jackal evidence of my guilt?

03-26-2011, 02:00 PM	#523
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Well BK, I'll grant you that all the unknowns remaining to me (sal, Lathum, you, CR) are the only unknowns left who voted for a known villager, so it's reasonable for you to say I singled you out unfairly for that particular criticism.

03-26-2011, 02:49 PM	#527
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	If the Woodsman is out there, he may as well reveal. Either the wolves hit him N1 or N3 (likely) and know who he is or we would at least know we have an extra lynch to work with. The downside would be if he hasn't been hit, the wolves would know who to take down before the end of the game, but I think it's more valuable at this point to take away one possible scenario for what happened N1, as it would help CR's case a lot if you otherwise have to think the wolves missed the NK (very unlikely). My suspicion is that role is not present however. I don't see that the Mayor should reveal if you're an uncleared. Just hold your power until you'd otherwise be lynched, then use it to save yourself.

03-26-2011, 03:30 PM	#528
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	OK, so the missed kill N1 means one of a few things. 1. They didn't send in a kill and screwed up. 2. They hit the woodsman and decided to go seer hunting with their other night kills 3. They went for CR, got blocked, and went away from him N2 because they saw something in McKerneys post that led them to believe he was the BG The thing I am trying to wrap my brain around is if there was a BG block or the Woodsman hit N1, why go for McKerney N2? They would have had an open kill. If they were blocked N1 and thought McKerney was the BG, it actually is a poor move killing him N2, since you would know he didn't self protect N1, self protecting N2 would be a likelihood. So what happened N1?

03-26-2011, 03:42 PM	#529
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Good point Lathum re why kill mckerney. Only thing I would say as Devil's Advocate is from the wolves' point of view, maybe they thought mckerney would try to protect a more likely-to-be killed target than himself. Looking at bhlloy's list, you can see that was the strategy he used, so it seems like they had the right idea, but the wrong target for BG.

03-26-2011, 05:29 PM	#530
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	OK, so here is where we are at Bhlloy- Bodyguard Mauboy1- Cleared by Danny Dwardzala-Cleared by Danny Lathum JAG Saldana Chief Rum Barkeep49 OK, so that leaves us likely 2 wolves out of 5 unknowns. If we have a duke and a woodsman we have a 66% at hitting a wolf. If we have only one roll left it drops us to a 50%, still not terrible. I guess the time has come. I'm the Woodsman. If I was attacked N1 I think CR is likely a wolf. Either way I think there is a chance he is a wolf. I know if I am a wolf and try and hit CR N1 and miss, I am coming back for him N2. FWIW I asked Autumn if the wolves come after me and don't get the kill are they told I am the woodsman or do they just know they missed the kill. He told me they just are told they missed the kill. So they wouldn't be able to leave the woodsman for later.

03-26-2011, 07:05 PM	#533
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	It's a good time for that reveal I agree. We can't verify that you really have the role (other than if a kill gets blocked after the BG dies), but considering you came out with this without being under any pressure with the possibility of a counter-reveal by the real role and it seems like that would be a low percentage wolf play.

03-26-2011, 07:09 PM	#534
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	I'm surprised that role is in the game though. I think I'd be surprised if the duke was out there too.

03-26-2011, 07:46 PM	#535
dwardzala H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2004	I have no role. Sal got the first vote so I am going to put CR in the lead 3-2 to see what happens. Vote Chief Rum

03-26-2011, 08:10 PM	#536
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	I think that makes it 2-2.

03-26-2011, 09:33 PM	#540
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	And we are pretty sure there is no Martyr, so that is one role we are down already

03-27-2011, 09:03 PM	#542
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	Jag, It is very interesting to put all this together; I admire the handiwork and I wish I could see it is for the good of the villagers but unfortunately you're barking(howling?) up the wrong tree here. I wish I could say something else as anything I say will sound defensive but I feel I need to put out this little fire as quickly as possible before we go down the wrong path (heck, it may be the right path, too, I don't know). If you've played with me in the past I am anything BUT consistent in my play. I have never put much strategy towards any of my votes aside from piggy-backing most of the time in this game and every other game I've played. It's the way I roll and obviously not a good way to roll as it always seems to get me to exit the game early. I will be honest I haven't put much thought into my voting this game more than others because I feel like there is minimal info to go on and maybe I'm being short-sighted. I wish I could say that I delve into the posts made about vote switches and what vote was made when. I am not hardcore and I think that's where it hurts me most in the end. Since I'm one of three cleared villagers I have a good shot at going home so this may be cleared up tomorrow night or if the wolves are seeing that this is throwing us off their scent they may keep me around so it screws around with us even more.

03-27-2011, 10:16 PM	#543
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I am starting to wonder if we are without a duke

03-27-2011, 10:19 PM	#544
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Vote count as of post 543 2 Saldana - JAG (503), bhlloy (506) 2 chief rum - mauboy1 (512), dwardzala (536)

03-28-2011, 08:44 AM	#546
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I'm going to have very limited time today. Still not sure where I want to go with my vote though.

03-28-2011, 11:59 AM	#548
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	JAG, first, thanks for the detailed analysis. having not been able to follow along as well as i would have liked, it was very helpful second, other than my "over the top" reaction to your blatant misrepresentation of my day 1 vote, what exactly is it that is so convincing to you that makes you think i am a wolf?

03-28-2011, 01:57 PM	#549
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Can someone recap the case against both people? While I've been reading every post, my mind hasn't really been on the game and I don't have a sense of the flow.