Werewolf LVIII: Clash of the Gods (GAME OVER)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

You jumped on my vote on hoops quickly. Which put him WAY out on the lead at the time. Then you unvoted and went to me. It was more the quick jump onto hoops that I found suspicious.

oh yah. I did vote for Hoops early, didn't I

[path12]

Humbug.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I was referring less to that than the idea that the Titans know which Olympians are in the game and can fake reveal accordingly.

Ah. We don;t know that's what AlanT was referring to, but its a good guess. That makes all reveals suspect, and I'm not sure I buy that.

To be fair, Ares seems like a pretty major god to not be in teh game at all.

[Poli]

Bed is calling soon.

[Schmidty]

Holy crap. When I left at like 5:45, there was only 6 pages.

[RendeR]

OK, we have a lot of weird shit going down here. I'm gonna open myself up to scrutiny by listing out the people I trust in the groupings/order that I trust them:


Most trusted:
Barkeep
Daddytorgo
Anxiety - Aries

Sortof trusted, no bad vibes yet:
St Cronin
Lathum
Schmidty
Hoopsguy

Very Suspiciousmostly gut feelings, perhaps some voting isues)
Racer - nothing firm, but the whole be nice to the newbie on day 1 thing really pinged my radar today and its still singing when I ponder him atm.


Anyone else is pretty neutral, Ardent is always someone to consider, he's been real quiet this game, but thats not a huge issue to me. Raiders got pretty defensive when I called his name early day 1, so he may be hiding something too. Then of course there is always Telle. She's a pretty good wol, so she may well be a titan in hiding. (love you honey)

thats what I got atm.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Holy crap. When I left at like 5:45, there was only 6 pages.

yeah we sorta went ape-shit crazy posting abck and forth.

[Lathum]

How on earth can you semi trust me with the great case barkeep made against me?

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Lathum

How on earth can you semi trust me with the great case barkeep made against me?

Well, to be honest, its too easy of a case to jump on. You're never that obvious about anything. You defended path, but I also understand why you did, you believe in not killing off quality villagers on the first day for no good reason.

Also, while you were on the opposite side as barkeep, you had a valid point and you stuck with it. Most players as olves tend to see their argument getting ignored/beaten down and look for something else, you didn't, you stuck with your guns.

Now does that mean I trust you absolutely? NO.

Does that mean I can see another side of your possible game decisions? yes.

I figure at worst you're a monster or perhaps even a human in league with the titans.

My gut tells me yer safe though so I'll hold off judgement on you for now.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hey guys/gals, out for the night. We got a Titan and no first day seer loss, so all in all, not too bad.

Am I the only one a little concerned at the loss of the goddess of Wisdom? The idea that Athena has seer like abilities seems very possible.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So the big question is: Why am I alive and path is dead? Clearly I threw 5 points at path. But that ought not to have been enough. DT is now claiming to have thrown some, which surprises me since he'd given no indication all day he was open to the idea. Were the Titans so arrogant as to assume that the vote count would be accurate? Or were the Titans not around? Seems to me like a line of discussion.

Well, now that I have seen what happened, I will be the first to admit I must be wrong about Barkeep. No way a Titan leads a mad charge at Cronus less than 100 posts before deadline. So BK, you are on my trust list now, for what that's worth. I give similar good support for Render, Neon (duh, obviously attacked anyway) and DaddyTorgo, since they also moved to path late.

But my vote, and I am guessing many others there for Barkeep, was a Day One vote, with little to go on. Not to say there aren't Titans there. The numbers alone say there are (not too many other places to go with their votes). But I suspect Barkeep and Neon were much more a Day One target for most, with a handful of Titans using them as cover. So I would say Titans are in those two voting groups, but there will be Olympians there as well. We have to regard the whole group as suspicious (including myself, I acknowledge) until proven otherwise, but hopefully we will see other indications as to which are actual Titans and which are just your usual poorly guided Day One votes.

I have some thoughts on how the Barkeep versus path12 vote brokedown, which I will get to in a second.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Woops, I found an error, this should be the final vote count I mean:

Barkeep - Ntndeacon (159), lathum (210), Chief Rum (261), Arlington (277), passacaglia (324), path (352), telle (376)
neon chaos - purduebrad (135), Ardent Enthusiast (316), St.cronin (370), hoopsguy (375)
Path - Barkeep (315), render (324), daddytorgo (328), neon chaos (330)
anxiety - anxiety (132), Raiders Army (140), schmidty (201)
Hoopsguy - racer (208)

Okay, here is the final vote.

Barkeep has claimed 4 points on path (of course, since this was the reason I voted for him), and I have no reason to doubt him. Given path was lynched, I have no reason to doubt DT's 4 point reveal either. So at limit, we have at least 10 voting points on path. Neon said earlier today he would be maximizing his ability (which, I guess, still didn't work out so well, or perhaps he was petrified before he got to use his AP points), so I would guess he put on just the one point. Render, did you put down just one point?

I think most people put down 1 point, unless stated otherwise, in order to maximize their abilities (we all have them, I would guess). So I'm going to assume right now that 10 points were on path.

That means that 10 points is the limit Barkeep received from seven players, and it was likely less, 7-9. So most votes on BK had to be of the one point variety. path was in that group, too, so you would guess he didn't just put one point down (unless he was overconfident, not sure). Passacaglia, an Olympian, was also a voter (I would guess one point).

So BK voters around at deadline have to be looked at it with at least somewhat a more positive view, because if they were Titans, they would certainly have increased their points on BK to ensure path gets saved. Not a clear by any means, of course, just food for thought.

I used posting within 15 minutes of deadline as my standard.

Of the seven BK voters, Telle and Lathum both posted just a few minutes before deadline. So that proves to me they were around at the deadline. The other BK voters without "proof" they were around are myself (I last posted around 6 p.m. PDT, an hour before deadline), ntndeacon and Arlington Colt. So I would look at Telle and Lathum with less suspicion right now then the latter three (if I were not me; I, of course, trust me completely).

As for myself, I was online and in the thread reading along until a half hour after deadline (but before Alan posted results). Unfortunately, I didn't post after my 6 p.m. post, just reading along, so I can't prove that. Don;t know if anyone saw me in the thread. Read into that what you will, though. I was around to "up" my points on Barkeep to save path if I was a Titan, but I did not, using but the one point. But I acknowledge that does nothing to clear me (nor should it).

One other thing that occurred to me--Neon had a lot of his voters around at deadline (Purdue, cronin and hoops), so does that clear them or not? Not sure it does so much, because there were less votes on Neon. You could argue with 7 BK votes that a couple Titans in the mix could likely put it away with that many individual votes. Not so much with Neon voters. Even if every Neon voter had 2 points on his vote, eight points is unlikely to beat out Barkeep's votes. So Titans on Neon were unlikely to up their points. If we assume the Titans split their votes, I would guess we have at most a couple (including path) on Barkeep, and maybe as much as two on Neon as well.

Just throwing this all out there to be considered while I am away tomorrow, although I should be back again in the late afternoon like I was today.

[Barkeep49]

CR: Good anlaysis except that I put 5 votes, not 4 on path. I'm not sure from DT's message if he put 4 on path or 5. So it moves up, slightly, the amount of possible votes on path. This makes it somewhat likely that a titan could have bumped up the votes on me, while still doing some other action.

[Raiders Army]

I agree we need to look at the voters for BK. I'm certain there is a wolf in there somewhere.

[Lathum]

well that was a slow overnight...

I'll be out most of the day FWIW.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

One other thing that occurred to me--Neon had a lot of his voters around at deadline (Purdue, cronin and hoops), so does that clear them or not? Not sure it does so much, because there were less votes on Neon. You could argue with 7 BK votes that a couple Titans in the mix could likely put it away with that many individual votes. Not so much with Neon voters. Even if every Neon voter had 2 points on his vote, eight points is unlikely to beat out Barkeep's votes. So Titans on Neon were unlikely to up their points. If we assume the Titans split their votes, I would guess we have at most a couple (including path) on Barkeep, and maybe as much as two on Neon as well.

CR, good analysis. I already admitted to throwing three points on Neon_Chaos although it does sound like everybody else only threw one on him. If there is a Titan on Neon, it isn't me but I'm certainly as worthy of suspicion as anyone else there.

[DaddyTorgo]

i put 4pts on Path because that was the maximum that Alan said I could put on him (1 pt to be reserved for actions, even if you don't use it).

the reason i did this: i didn't feel that D1 was a good day to use my action, although I maintain that I could have up until I saw things suspicious with path and thought that saving Neon and Barkeep was the stronger play

[Raiders Army]

I'll go first today as I might not be in later. Getting bad vibes from ArlingtonColt so...

VOTE ARLINGTONCOLT

[DaddyTorgo]

love love CR's analysis. particularly because it's not self-serving and an attempt to clear himself.

[DaddyTorgo]

hi thomkal - more playing from you please!

[DaddyTorgo]

RendeR - what are your feelings on Neon Chaos? Are you inclined to trust him as much as Barkeep given that the two were in similar situations yesterday?

[RendeR]

I've got the sinus head cold death infection from hell, so I'll be in and out in short spurts (even if I apear to be here I may not be.)

I put 2 points on Path12.

Barkeep - Ntndeacon (159), lathum (210), Chief Rum (261), Arlington (277), passacaglia (324), path (352), telle (376)

Of these voters for barkeep I'm pretty sure we can trust Lathum and Pass is dead. I'd bet by collection of greek tragedies that there is at least 1 more Titan on the remaining list of:

Chief Rum
NtnDeacon
Arlington Colt
Telle

Chief put in some real good analysis there and I'm interested to hear what the others have to say. So lets here some commentary from them.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

RendeR - what are your feelings on Neon Chaos? Are you inclined to trust him as much as Barkeep given that the two were in similar situations yesterday?

I don't have a reason to trust or distrut him at this point. he offered to reveal his role to gain trust, which, personally, seems like a desperate attempt at hiding in plain sight, though I could be wrong.

At this point I wouldn't vote for Neon, but I probably wouldn't move a vote to save him either.

I'm assuming Medusa is in the game since Neon is now a rather sad little statue of himself.

[PurdueBrad]

DT, I know you are asking RendeR about Neon, but my feeling is (unless making a fairly gutsy play) that Neon is good which means I was wrong all day yesterday. So back to the drawing board for me.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Am I the only one a little concerned at the loss of the goddess of Wisdom? The idea that Athena has seer like abilities seems very possible.

It is possible although I'm not necessarily sure that powers are tied to the role as they were in previous games. If we think that is the case though, Ares is probably important as well given the role of God of War.

[DaddyTorgo]

Purdue - Thanks. Always interested in other's insights too. Should have made that a more general question.

I think it's fairly clear that powers are in some ways tied to characters, both from knowing what my power is, as well as from seeing Neon turned to stone (an odd choice unless medusa is in the game, which in turn means medusa is in the game IMO).

[PurdueBrad]

Okay, then the verification is good because mine isn't really tied into mine. It's a rather strange connection actually. That being said though, I should've figured out that most are related with Medusa and Neon's situation.

[RendeR]

My ability matches my role exactly. I'm not sure Athena would specifially be a seer type character. I'm thinking that the abilities that most of us have fit in well with the character we were given and the seer/BG/etc etc are add-ons to those abilities.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

hi thomkal - more playing from you please!

heya DT. That's three "votes" asking me to play. I may have to do it now.

[RendeR]

Always good to have more people thomkal! I'll need at least 18 for my gaqme so feel free to join up for the next one!

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

My ability matches my role exactly. I'm not sure Athena would specifially be a seer type character. I'm thinking that the abilities that most of us have fit in well with the character we were given and the seer/BG/etc etc are add-ons to those abilities.

That seems weird to me. I would agree that Athena isn't necessarily the seer (I can think of another God who I think would, based on their abilities make more sense as a seer) but I think Athena certainly had some ability tied to her role, whether it was wisdom or battle.

[st.cronin]

Barkeep, I think the maximum APs you can put on a vote is 4.

[ntndeacon]

If Athena isn't the seer then great. Still the idea of losing wisdom is not a pleasant one.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I've got the sinus head cold death infection from hell, so I'll be in and out in short spurts (even if I apear to be here I may not be.)

I put 2 points on Path12.

Barkeep - Ntndeacon (159), lathum (210), Chief Rum (261), Arlington (277), passacaglia (324), path (352), telle (376)

Of these voters for barkeep I'm pretty sure we can trust Lathum and Pass is dead. I'd bet by collection of greek tragedies that there is at least 1 more Titan on the remaining list of:

Chief Rum
NtnDeacon
Arlington Colt
Telle

Chief put in some real good analysis there and I'm interested to hear what the others have to say. So lets here some commentary from them.

I'm not sure Lathum is trusted. I'm also not sure I trust RendeR. But I'll probably vote for one of those players, anyway, as it seems like a good place to start.

[ntndeacon]

I will say that I was not near a computer from about 5:30 until after the deadline. So I was unable to affect my points after that point in any way.

[ntndeacon]

in terms of insights A lot of what I think currently goes along with what several have said. (I realize that isn't a big help, but i will say it regardless) The path voters are more trusted now. (not completely trusted mind you. I know I was even the convicting vote for a wolf in one game when I was a wolf...But trusted enough though.)
I suspect that the wolves split up thier votes. So I am more apt to vote for someone who voted for someone besides Barkeep and path.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Barkeep, I think the maximum APs you can put on a vote is 4.

This keeps getting floated around. Where are people seeing this? I must be wrong, I just don't see it in the rules as we get 5 APs have to use 1 to vote. WE're then limited to place 3 of our remaining 4 APs on powering up the vote?

[st.cronin]

Alan has posted that 1 AP is reserved for voting, and 1 AP is reserved for action. The other 3 can be used to strengthen either action. So the maximum APs for an action is 4, and the maximum APs for a vote is also 4.

That's my understanding.

[Poli]

I told Alan I wanted to use 4AP last night in my action. I wasn't told that was impossible.

[Poli]

Nevermind. That doesn't fit with what you're saying, does it.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

This keeps getting floated around. Where are people seeing this? I must be wrong, I just don't see it in the rules as we get 5 APs have to use 1 to vote. WE're then limited to place 3 of our remaining 4 APs on powering up the vote?

Its mentioned briefly in the rules, but I also posted this clarification:

Originally Posted by Alan T

This is correct. You have 5 total APs each day (unless your role says otherwise). You MUST use 1 AP on a vote for that day or be penalized. You have 1 AP reserved for an action (which is optional and does not have to be performed if you do not choose). The remaining 3 AP can be spent either on strengthening your vote or strengthening your Action, or just left unused.

Anyone who sends in a PM stating a vote of 5 AP will be assumed to be 4 AP on the vote and the 1 AP for the action left unused/wasted. Anyone who votes but does not send in a PM will be assumed to spend 1 AP on the vote and leaving 4 AP unused/wasted.

Unless your role says otherwise, you are capped at 4AP for the vote regardless if you use an action or not. Anyone who submitted a 5AP vote yesterday will have been capped at 4AP for their vote with 1 wasted point regardless if they got a PM or not, unless their role dictates otherwise.

[Barkeep49]

Thanks Alan.

[Poli]

I'll get this out of the way quick.

VOTE LATHUM


(currently 1 AP)

[Abe Sargent]

I agree with Chief Rum's really good analysis, which points to ntndeacon, CR himself, or AC as good votes. I'll be looking this way today probably.

[ArlingtonColt]

I agree on the good analysis... I know I am an Olympian and I'm against revealing, but I will if i have to save myself. I only put1 point on my vote last night, because really it was a random day 1 vote and I had nothing to base it on (except lathum's theory).

[Lathum]

wow, hit and run by Ardent...

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Lathum

wow, hit and run by Ardent...

Its weird, when I can't possibly trust you, everyone else does, when I do trust you even a little, no one else does.

Just weird.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Its weird, when I can't possibly trust you, everyone else does, when I do trust you even a little, no one else does.

Just weird.

that's my game

[Lathum]

VOTE ARLINGTONCOLT

[Poli]

Hit and run? I've been here all day.