07-20-2006, 03:21 PM | #501 | |
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Well that's mostly because Syria held the country for so many years... and Hezbollah is Syria's little proxy. So I don't think it is "hold your enemies too close" really, more as in the situation was already polluted from years of Syrian control and it'll take more than a year to remove the Syrian traces from Lebanon. Though, at the very least, they kicked the forces out last year. Hopefully they don't take advantage of the situation and come right back in.
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07-20-2006, 07:38 PM | #502 |
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13929959/
Not to comment on anything, but looks like Israel is going to step it up. |
07-20-2006, 08:14 PM | #503 | ||||||||
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At risk of receiving more childish cracks about supporting Hezbollah, it appears I'm not alone in seeing the current trajectory of this conflict favoring Hezbollah at the expense of the Lebanese government (and by extension US and Israeli interests in Lebanon).
From a Christian Science Monitor column today: Quote:
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A Slate column from yesterday: Quote:
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And from Slate today, worries over the impact of the conflict on the Lebanese government and a proposal to salvage the situation: Quote:
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It just seems appallingly obvious that this military campaign, like Israel's last military campaign against Hezbollah, like Israel's many campaigns against Hamas, like the US campaign against Iraqi insurgents, and like the Soviet campaign against Afghanistan's mujaheddin, will fail to cripple or destroy Hezbollah. It is disappointing, but ultimately not surprising, that advocating some different approach, one that while less immediately gratifying is, over the long term, more likely to produce actual progress, is interpreted as being anti-Israel or pro-terrorist. |
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07-20-2006, 09:09 PM | #504 | |
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Hezbollah leader says possible surprises, Fox speculates maybe chemical weapons. Lebanese military may join with Hezbollah to fight against ground offensive. What a clusterf**k. The Lebanese military should take this opportunity to attack Hezbollah. |
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07-20-2006, 11:02 PM | #505 |
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more than half the lebanese military have/had taken oathes to support Hezbollah...
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07-21-2006, 01:10 AM | #506 | |
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I don't see what 'right' Israel had to .1% of their land, other than that the Jews were claiming that they should have it and the fact that people of their same religion ruled it hundreds of years ago. Surely you can see how if that was your land, you would call that claim tenuous at best, and want to fight to get your land back. Especially if it wasn't just the land of your ethnicity, but your actual homeland. If you want to talk about the 'genesis of the Middle East problem', you could go back to it being Zionism movement. Or the Crusades of 1099. Or the Arab conquerors of 640. Etc, etc. |
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07-21-2006, 01:15 AM | #507 | |
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07-21-2006, 01:17 AM | #508 | |
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07-21-2006, 05:19 AM | #509 | |
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Don't know about the morality of this but yes, the use of chemical weapons is okay imo. The caveat is, don't complain if Israel takes it up a notch in aggressiveness if Hezbollah uses chemical weapons. At that stage, the gloves are off. I believe this holds true if the Lebanese military sides with Hezbollah in fighting against the pending Israeli invasion. If there is coordinated resistance between L/H against an Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon, then the 'intertwine' logic becomes real. Civilian collateral damage and certainly infrastrucutre all becomes 'understandable'. |
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07-21-2006, 05:37 AM | #510 | |
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I have not read this. Can you quote a source? |
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07-21-2006, 07:17 AM | #511 | |
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Yes, a good point. When doing conflict prediction analyses of this nature, it should be remembered that morality should be kept separate from relative capability and strategy. This is certainly not to say that morality has nothing to do with conflict, but in the end whether a side is "good" or "bad" has very little to do with their chances of winning. As for the point about how modern armies with superior firepower have performed poorly against muslim insurgents, I would say that this is not something to do with Islam, but has more to do with how the tactics of guerrilla warfare and the mindset of those who practice it minimizes the advantages of the technically superior power. Outside the West-Islam sphere, the US vs the Viet Cong, the UK vs Irish revolutionaries in the Irish war for independence, and to some extent the British vs the colonists in the American Revolution are all examples of success of the less powerful side. Were any of these sides any more "moral" or "good" than the other? Who knows, possibly. Did that have anything to do with whether they won or lost? Probably not. |
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07-21-2006, 08:14 AM | #512 | |
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I had heard it on TV, HOWEVER, I will say after reading online about them, either I misheard it or the pundit mis-spoke because everything Im reading on the net - says that they are NOT members of hezbollah but simply unwilling to fight hezbollah, for a plethora of different reasons. I apologize for misleading and being mistook myself.
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07-21-2006, 08:24 AM | #513 | |
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I guess what I don't really understand is, what is the alternative? Ceding the farmland to Lebanon? Every Israeli citizen relocating to Brooklyn? |
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07-21-2006, 09:54 AM | #514 | |
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I guess so. I don't see an alternative. The terror groups have long admitted they won't stop until every Jew is entirely out of the region. Yes, Israel is weakened by fighting back. But they would be weakened further by not fighting back. This cartoon may be a little offensive to some. But it was printed in a mainstram newspaper and I think it's an accurate portrayal of what we're up against with Al Qaeda, and what Israel is up against with Hamas and Hezbollah. hxxp://www.unionleader.com/uploads/media-items/2006/july/717cartoon.jpg Terrorism is a very effective weapon against an unpopular power. To the Hamas/Hezbollah sympathizers here (and when I say sympathizers, I mean exactly that, people who have some degree of sympathy for their cause - I don't mean you necessarily want to wipe Israel off the map, too, though they clearly do...) What would be your reaction if Native Americans began a concerted terror campaign against nearby American cities? Let's say they get Russia to train them in guerrilla warfare and start lobbing missiles at downtown Tulsa or Fargo with the long-term intent of wiping out these populations and claiming specific ancestoral land? What should our army do in response? And keep in mind that Native Americans have far more claim to kick the US out than Hezbollah does with Israel. Jews had a long-term, consistent presence in the region - long before Zionism was even a policy. |
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07-21-2006, 10:18 AM | #515 | |
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But there was no continuous presence in the region until the Jewish settlements. This was nomadic territory for the most part. In 1850, before Zionism was anyone's policy, Jews made up about 3% of Palestine. In 1900, it was about 12%, which is about the time Zionism too hold. In 1948, it was still only 40%. One fact you conveniently ignore is that about 80% of the near-million Arabs living in Israel when it was formed left voluntarily, [b]at the request of the rest of the Arab world[/i], when the Arabs declared war. Second, Arabs migrated to the region with the Jews. The settlements made land habitable. They lived in peace for the most part until the 1920s. Between 1900 and 1948 about as many Arabs migrated to Palestine as Jews. Jews also made up a significant percentage of the rest of the region. In 1900, the Jewish population of Turkey was about 300,000. They're just about all gone now. About 30,000 Jews lived in Egypt. All gone now. About 65,000 lived in the Syria region. All gone now. Another 60,000 in Tunisia. Down to about 1,000 today. Iran had 35,000 in 1900, about 20,000 today, surprisingly. More Jews were forced out of other countries in the region than there were Arabs in Israel as it was founded. Jews lived scattered around the world, and many groups had lived in the Middle East or North Africa for hundreds of years, if not predating Arab conquerers. After the Russian pogroms and Hitler's genocide, the Jews felt a state of their own was necessary. But they were still willing to live in peace, side by side with the Arabs. It was the Arabs who decided that wasn't possible. Why is it that the Jews who were forced out of Turkey and other countries in the region don't count? Why is it only the Arabs who left Israel on their own, as their compatriots promised genocide, who count with you? The Arabs decided they couldn't live with the Jews, not vice versa. They declared war. They're the ones who still, to this day, promise genocide. And still, Israel is 14% Arab, and that 14% has full citizenship rights, affirmative action programs to support them, and their children are dying from Hezbollah missles, too. The Palestinian problem is the result of Arab countries who control 99.9% of the land in the region, but refuse to take in Palestinian refugees? At what point will you see that the Jews have a right to live in peace, just as any other group in the entire world does? Why are they the only group of people in the entire world not entitled to a peaceful existence? |
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07-21-2006, 01:01 PM | #516 | |
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What about you? What would you do? According to your philosophy, if the Native Americans claim our land, we should give it to them, maybe declare the Dakota's a separate country, to be administered and governed by the Native Americans? I mean, that's just a small fraction of the land we have, and most of the area is uninhabited. The people of Fargo should just deal with it. Right? |
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07-21-2006, 01:16 PM | #517 | ||
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I feel for the Jews that were forced to leave Turkey and elsewhere. But that doesn't automatically give them a right to take someone else's land. It isn't the fault of the Palestinians that Turkey kicked out any Jewish people. |
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07-21-2006, 01:43 PM | #518 | |
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I know. It sucks that Jews can't live in peace anywhere. Persecuted in NY, LA, etc. Sad. |
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07-21-2006, 02:12 PM | #519 | |
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Isn't that what the reservations are for? Remember how small Israel is in comparison to the Arab world. There are at least two separate reservations in America larger than the entire country of Israel. |
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07-21-2006, 02:19 PM | #520 | |
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07-21-2006, 02:21 PM | #521 | |
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1. The Arabs left voluntarily. 2. The Jews had Jerusalem for more than 1,000 years, then were kicked out by the Arabs. They maintained a presence in the region. They gradually returned to their homeland. 3. If 1,400 years ago doesn't count, then why does 60 years ago count? 4. Yes, it sucks for individual Palestinians who trusted their fellow Arabs. But when you wage war and you lose, sometimes you don't get what you want in the settlement. The Palestinians may have a right to complain, but not about the Jews. They made a dumb choice. 5. Israel didn't wage that war. They would have been happy to share a country with the Arabs, peacefully. The Arabs chose to attack instead. 6. Palestine was not a country, and is still not a country. The Jews were allowed to settle there by the owners of that land. |
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07-21-2006, 02:24 PM | #522 | |
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Ha. This is so awkward. So if Mexicans gradually return to their homeland, and someday a foreign entity awards them California, the people of California are just screwed? |
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07-21-2006, 02:26 PM | #523 | |
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Reservations are sovereign, with internal governments, usually on land familiar to the native group - though remember that they, like the Arabs throughout much of the Middle East, were often nomadic. I'm saying that the Isrealis have just as much claim to the land as the Arabs. And because the Arabs refuse to coexist with them in peace, the Jews are entitled to a sovereign nation somewhere in the region. Palestine, for many reasons, was the best location. |
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07-21-2006, 02:28 PM | #524 | |
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The USA is a sovereign nation. Palestine never was. Mexico gave California to the US in exchange for a lot of money, and citizenship rights. |
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07-21-2006, 02:32 PM | #525 | |
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Well if the Brittish Empire folds up shop in their colony of California, and leaves a large Mexican population the option to declare a new state. Yes then the rest of the people in California would be more than welcome to stay or to leave while the surrounding territories attacked the new Mexican state. If that Mexican state prevailed, then yeah, the folks that lost the war, should accept that reality and consider that the Mexicans had won the right to that land. Those surrounding states who declared war also ought to readilly accept the population that left their homes in support of the war. So yeah what you said. |
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07-21-2006, 02:33 PM | #526 | |
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The principle is the same. Taking ones land, giving it to another. Sorry, if you can't see why people are upset, I don't know what to tell you. |
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07-21-2006, 02:34 PM | #527 | |
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. |
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07-21-2006, 02:41 PM | #528 | |
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It's not that people can't see why the Arabs are upset. What we object to is the solution they propose. |
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07-21-2006, 02:54 PM | #529 | |
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Sounds like that's an issue for Israel to deal with...and if they can't handle themselves, Israel should be punished accordingly. Oh wait, we (the US) don't let that happen. We've pampered this abused child, and now the abused child is acting out. |
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07-21-2006, 03:07 PM | #530 | |
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Actually, pampered is going a bit far. The US support of Israel is not a moral one, it is a completely strategic one--the massive amounts of foreign aid makes Israel more or less beholden to the whims of US foreign policy. Foreign aid has more or less bought us a reliable vassal in an otherwise unpredictable region. The threat of a foreign aid cut-off keeps the Israelis in line. Besides that, we have more or less bankrolled the Egyptian military--that also keeps the Israelis honest. |
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07-21-2006, 03:08 PM | #531 | |
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A child is either pampered or abused - which is it??? But, anyway - your point of view would have more credibility if you would occasionally condemn Hezbollah's launching of missiles into populated areas. Your lack of criticism on the one hand, combined with your inane Zionist conspiracy theories (do you still think Israel is responsible for 9/11?), plus your insistence that Israel has no right to exist, means that nobody will ever take you seriously on this topic. |
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07-21-2006, 03:43 PM | #532 | |
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Both. Abused early on, now pampered. I think the whole situation is regretable. I don't think Israel is responsible for 9/11, I never said that. I think it's worth looking into (their knowledge of the situation), as are their major spying initiatives in the US. My thoughts on a "right to exist" aren't limited to Israel - I think the entire concept is a bit strange. What, does the United States have a "right to exist" and that makes us immune to those who challenge us? Did the USSR have a "right to exist" when we wanted to topple communism (what they were founded on)? Last edited by rexallllsc : 07-21-2006 at 03:54 PM. |
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07-21-2006, 03:47 PM | #533 | |
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Then you don't agree that Palestine has a right to exist? That's a dangerous path to tread upon. |
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07-21-2006, 04:03 PM | #534 | |
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I don't think anyone has an irrefutable "right to exist". Neither does the US. Neither does Canada. It's all subjective. Fact is, everything withstanding, Israel has screwed over the people in that region so hard time and time again, that people simply hate them now. |
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07-21-2006, 04:21 PM | #535 | |
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1. You don't think Israel is responsible for 9/11. 2. You think we should investigate what they knew about 9/11. Are you implying ... a. They knew something was going to happen but did nothing substantial to inform us. b. They knew something was going to happen, got Jews out of the Trade Center and did nothing substantial to warn us. c. They knew something was going to happen, did inform us but we did not pay attention. d. They are some sort of co-conspirators, minor conspirators via funding, intelligence etc. e. (other options) |
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07-21-2006, 04:24 PM | #536 |
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No state has an inherent right to exist. It's not subjective though: the ability to impose and guarantee one's sovereignty (via one's own power or the power of sympathetic states) ultimately determines whether a state exists or not.
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07-21-2006, 04:29 PM | #537 | |
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I believe A & D are plausible and should be looked into. Last edited by rexallllsc : 07-21-2006 at 04:30 PM. |
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07-21-2006, 04:37 PM | #538 | |
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It's genesis comes from this thread: http://fof.sportplanet.gamespy.com//...ad.php?t=47713 |
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07-21-2006, 04:41 PM | #539 |
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The point I have been trying to argue (both through my own words and in the quotations from other sources) is that there is fundamental mistake being made when this conflict is viewed through a military prism. If this were basically a military conflict, Israel's responses would make sense. But then the terrorist actions would not. The style of attacks they make will never, ever destroy Israel militarily. From a military standpoint, the damage that Hezbollah and Hamas do is completely insignificant. To them the war is not military, it is political, and they are very astute and talented political actors. Israel, on the other hand, treats the conflict as military and comes off clumsy and ham-handed in the political arena. For Israel to win (and I would very much like this to happen) they need to wage a political war. I don't disagree that there needs to be some military response, for the usual stated reason of needing to demonstrate that Israel is not toothless. But I think the military response needs to be a) more precise (which is why I would put the focus on Israel's capable and experienced anti-terror agencies and special forces) and b) executed in conjunction with political engagement.
The initial reaction to the kidnapping among the Lebanese public was, in general, not favorable to Hezbollah. If Israel's military response had been more narrowly targetted and combined with diplomatic contact with the Lebanese government (and possibly some coordination of efforts to recover the kidnapped soldiers), the public reaction in Lebanon could have remained unfavorable to Hezbollah. It could have driven a wedge between the majority of Lebanese who want democratic rule and peace with Israel and the minority who seek war. But widespread strikes throughout the civil infrastructure while leaving the Lebanese government completely isolated and helpless has had the opposite effect, driving the Lebanese majority towards Hezbollah and placing the wedge between the entire population of Lebanon and Israel. My frustration is simply that Israel, who actually want peace, so badly misplay their hand by focusing on the military battlefield, where their actual impact is quite limited, and consistently allow themselves to be beaten where it really matters, on the political battlefield. This is not to say that political solutions will be quick or easy. They will almost certainly be painful and slow, but they are the only solutions that can ever bring closure to this conflict. The cartoon Jim posted isn't wrong. That is basically what this scenario is. And here's why: Israel and the US want peace. Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Hamas (or least certain factions thereof) want war. In order to achieve peace the winning of hearts and minds on the other side is critical (roll your eyes if you want, but it's true). But if you want war, that's the last of your concerns. So we have to control our actions while they don't give a fuck. No one said it was easy being the good guys. |
07-21-2006, 04:44 PM | #540 | |
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Klinglerware. Thanks for the link. I don't feel up to reading it right now but will. I found this on Drudge and found it interesting. I wondered why it took the Israelis so long to go Infantry. The article said they were trying the air war option first. If true, I think I could have told them that wasn't going to work. http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtri...986111113.html |
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07-21-2006, 04:44 PM | #541 |
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Rex must have finally put me on ignore.
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07-21-2006, 05:28 PM | #542 | |
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thats ok he may be the first ever that I will put on ignore. Dave Chappelle stopped doing his show because Bill Cosby and Oprah were going to have him killed. Both are plausible, I guess, but theyre also ridiculously incomprehensible as having any foot in reality....but if it opens even a crack in the door that Jews are bad, or that Oprah and Bill have that sort of power than plant the seed and watch it grow. So ignorant.
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07-21-2006, 05:43 PM | #543 | |
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You think it's "ridiculously incomprehensible" that another country may have had intelligence on 9/11? Edit: Who said Jews are bad? You should get something straight, Israel does not represent all Jews. That would be like saying I said blacks are bad because I believe OJ killed his wife. Last edited by rexallllsc : 07-21-2006 at 05:44 PM. |
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07-21-2006, 06:04 PM | #544 | |
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yup, couldve had as much as we did and you saw that it was almost impossible to put the clues together, so I do NOT suspect another country wouldve put them together either....ESPECIALLY when it wasnt red flagging their country in the "static". Jew comment = youre right, sorry.....however your conspiracy theory WOULD paint a very broad picture that I DO Think is idiotic.
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07-21-2006, 10:41 PM | #545 |
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new news tonight rearding the impending humanitarian crisis...
I DO think it is imperative AND the responsibility of the world U.S., Israel, Syria, all of us to make sure that the food, medicine, water, etc. get into the civilians that did not heed the warnings OR couldnt leave of their own volition. THAT I do believe is the responsibility of everyone ESPECIALLY Israel, to protect the health of those citizens caught in the middle of their attempt to rout Hezbollah and I certainly hope they move with God Speed in this direction.
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07-22-2006, 12:33 AM | #546 | |
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I didn't want to get back into this thread, and will stay out of the Israel-Lebannon thing (Jim, I wouldn't keep arguing, your not going to change the minds of others), but this got my interest: A) Why is it the US's responsibility for humanitarian relief of something that is happening way outside of our borders, and something we can't control (the war)? Just wanted to understand why you said the "US", without mention of others. B) Should we risk our own men and resources (when they could be spent here helping our own) to support those who decide to stay, after Israel and others are telling them to leave? Just some questions I wanted to ask. |
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07-22-2006, 12:35 AM | #547 | |
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a - when I said "us" I meant all countries with the capability to help....and the reason is the same as when I say "we" should go into countries to stop genocide, help save people from starving, etc. Its my opinion of how the world order works. b - yes
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07-22-2006, 12:42 AM | #548 | |
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Thanks.... Now slowing backing out the thread again. |
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07-22-2006, 12:45 AM | #549 | ||
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yeah, the US is just a disinterested bystander with no ability to affect events in Lebanon. Quote:
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07-22-2006, 06:22 AM | #550 | |
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a) I do agree it is the world's responsibility to do humanitarian relief but the reality of the situation is in some specific cases (ex. post-War Europe) the world lacks the political will, military might, logistical resources to pull off a humanitarian relief without the US. Say what you will about the UN and its politics, but it allows countries to collaborate better in humanitarian relief than without. Ex. UNICEF might be rife with corruption, but there has certainly been people that have benefited and would not have without the UNICEF organizationl. b) No if this group is able bodied etc. Yes if this group also consists of children, elderly etc. (which it probably does). |
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