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Old 09-12-2008, 10:30 AM   #501
jeheinz72
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No wolf kill? Me likey
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Heinz has always been, and will always be a magnificent liar.
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:30 AM   #502
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You all arrive back in NY, except for DT, who got his wish.

This is awesome.
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:30 AM   #503
Lathum
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all PM's are out
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:30 AM   #504
saldana
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anyone remember who the other duel was the night i fought telle?

i am too lazy/busy to go back and look
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:31 AM   #505
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Boo for the cheap shot on Philly.

sorry, I'm from Jersey and hate everything about Filthadelphia.
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:31 AM   #506
hoopsguy
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it is a smelly, nasty city. A vile city with vile imhabitants.

This is also awesome, with all due respect to The Jackal.
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:31 AM   #507
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anyone remember who the other duel was the night i fought telle?

i am too lazy/busy to go back and look

Narcizo and...path? I just saw it too.
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:32 AM   #508
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Narcizo and Heinz
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:35 AM   #509
Lathum
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anyone remember who the other duel was the night i fought telle?

i am too lazy/busy to go back and look

it was Narcizo and Heinze
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:36 AM   #510
jeheinz72
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Yeah I cut up Narc that day
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Heinz has always been, and will always be a magnificent liar.
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:52 AM   #511
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Ok, I'll give out the information now.

I'm Brenda, the seer.

Heinz is a Wolf. I followed him on night 3 when I overheard his conversation about a Good job being done in Boston.

Given that I've known the last 24 hours that Heinz was a Wolf, I tried to intentionally be vague in hopes that I wasn't going to be targeted and could get one more night of viewing before giving out any information. I also did not want to reveal the city I was in on the first night because any Wolf that was in the same city and didn't sense me might have blown my cover so, I went with a city that other people were 'fluttering' in. I really was in Seattle following Schmidty that night.

Day 1 I followed Schmidty
Day 2 Saldana
Day 4 Packerfanatic (who went to Vegas and ate alot of cheese from what I was told)

My Day 4 scan was narrowed down to

DT (Now Dead)
Path12
NTN
Packerfan
Jackal (Connor)
Clap (Kurgan?)
Gram
BK

Clap is presumably Kurgan and Jackal is Connor so, no sense in scanning them at this point. I didn't feel it necessary to scan Gram since Heinz targeted him so, I went with Packerfan who ended up being clean.

So, that leaves us with Heinz as a Wolf probably another Wolf in either Path12, NTN, BK or Gram (although, Gram is last on my list)

At this point, since I trust Saldana and Packerfanatic, I'd like to go to the same city with them in hopes a duel takes precedence over a kill.


VOTE Heinz

I fully expect Heinz to try to reverse this on me. Whether or not it works, I figure my game is done in the next 24 hours, but so will Heinz's game....
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:53 AM   #512
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vote Heinz

Thank you seer
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:55 AM   #513
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I really think NTN and Mustang are likely clean.
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:58 AM   #514
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Obviously Mustang revealed, but both he and NTN voted Jackal which saved me in the lynch yesterday. No wolves would have done that to save in a good guy vs good guy match up. It would draw way too much attention.
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:03 AM   #515
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I do eat a lot of cheese, so he got that right...
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:05 AM   #516
jeheinz72
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I sense wolfy end-game here somehow. I just hope the real Seer (not me) comes up and sets things correct. Couple issues I have with this plan:

- How did I have make a kill in Boston when I was dueling Narcizo in Dallas on Night 2?

- Why did you get to scan Saldana night 2 (in SF) and also overhear my conversation which could only possibly relate to Dallas (where I was) and Boston (where the kill was). Granted that convo didn't even take place

- Why would I rail for killing off the quiet people if I was a wolf and Mrs S was quiet? Why would I also then vote for her early and never even contemplate switching

- Why would I have made any stance at all in clap vs illini, if I was a wolf and knew both were good anyhow?

- Why would I have engaged you (or Gramm) at all yesterday, when it was unnecessary if I was a wolf and not on the block?

- If you followed me on Night 3, you'd be able to tell me what city I was in. So which was it?
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:07 AM   #517
jeheinz72
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If I have to bite it to nab Mustang, that's fine, you all can lynch me. I honestly don't think I have the energy/time for one of my usual he said / she said back-and-forths today anyhow. But I think at the very least we should lay out the major inconsistencies in Mustang's story here. He beat me to the punch though (not that I have anything to reveal here) so I likely expect to get lynched now.

My only thought is that my earlier assumption that we had 3 or less wolves must've been way off. Of course given we haven't had as many duels as I had assumed we would, that makes sense (I was expecting 2+ a day based on odds frankly). My hunch is the starting wolves were

Mrs S, Mustang, one of Sal/PF (sal is my guess) and one of the remaining folks he listed as unscanned.
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:07 AM   #518
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Originally Posted by jeheinz72 View Post
I sense wolfy end-game here somehow. I just hope the real Seer (not me) comes up and sets things correct. Couple issues I have with this plan:

- How did I have make a kill in Boston when I was dueling Narcizo in Dallas on Night 2?

- Why did you get to scan Saldana night 2 (in SF) and also overhear my conversation which could only possibly relate to Dallas (where I was) and Boston (where the kill was). Granted that convo didn't even take place

- Why would I rail for killing off the quiet people if I was a wolf and Mrs S was quiet? Why would I also then vote for her early and never even contemplate switching

- Why would I have made any stance at all in clap vs illini, if I was a wolf and knew both were good anyhow?

- Why would I have engaged you (or Gramm) at all yesterday, when it was unnecessary if I was a wolf and not on the block?

- If you followed me on Night 3, you'd be able to tell me what city I was in. So which was it?

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Old 09-12-2008, 11:08 AM   #519
claphamsa
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nothing makes a quiet game unquiet quite like putting heinze on the block
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:08 AM   #520
jeheinz72
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meeting time, I'll be back in a bit.
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Heinz has always been, and will always be a magnificent liar.
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:09 AM   #521
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vote heinz

if you scan me we can PM, but finding a wolf is more important i'd say
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:10 AM   #522
The Jackal
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that would also prove that you are who you say you are, though
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:12 AM   #523
The Jackal
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sorry, I'm from Jersey and hate everything about Filthadelphia.

I'm not from Philly or anything so I don't really care, just a Flyers fan.

But I've been to both Philly and NJ, and NJ definitely smells worse.
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:31 AM   #524
claphamsa
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depends what part of jersey..... then again i think lathum is from the bad part
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:43 AM   #525
Mustang
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Originally Posted by jeheinz72 View Post
I sense wolfy end-game here somehow. I just hope the real Seer (not me) comes up and sets things correct. Couple issues I have with this plan:

- How did I have make a kill in Boston when I was dueling Narcizo in Dallas on Night 2??

You didn't make the kill. You were on the phone with someone that was reporting back the kill in Boston.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jeheinz72 View Post
- Why did you get to scan Saldana night 2 (in SF) and also overhear my conversation which could only possibly relate to Dallas (where I was) and Boston (where the kill was). Granted that convo didn't even take place?

I scanned you on night 3 so, I wasn't in SF one night and your city the next night. Remember, actions are over an entire week so, one week I was with Saldana and the next week I followed you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jeheinz72 View Post
- Why would I rail for killing off the quiet people if I was a wolf and Mrs S was quiet? Why would I also then vote for her early and never even contemplate switching?

Voting for MrS was a good cover. My guess is that you didn't expect it to go through all the way and you hoped NTN would catch up. You either err'd in your judgement and were hoping something else would happen or you were incredibly sneaky.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jeheinz72 View Post
- Why would I have made any stance at all in clap vs illini, if I was a wolf and knew both were good anyhow??

Because you are an active player and can't help it but to talk. (only thing I have on this point...)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jeheinz72 View Post
- Why would I have engaged you (or Gramm) at all yesterday, when it was unnecessary if I was a wolf and not on the block??


Just setting me up for lynch consideration later in the game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jeheinz72 View Post
- If you followed me on Night 3, you'd be able to tell me what city I was in. So which was it?

Las Vegas. Not that it matters beyond removing a shadow of any doubt that I am the seer in your mind.
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:51 AM   #526
jeheinz72
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You're missing my point on the call thing.

Night 2; you're in SF chasing Sal, I'm in Dallas, the kill is in Boston. How do you overhear a call from Boston to Dallas or whatever if you're in SF?

Night 3: Icing on the cake, I wasn't in Vegas, it wouldn't be possible for me to be in Vegas even! Clap and PF dueled in Vegas and I think most of us have realized that duels don't occur if there are too many highlanders in the same city. I was in Philly that night
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:02 PM   #527
jeheinz72
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I guess I should actually

Vote Mustang
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:23 PM   #528
saldana
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well heinz, the bad news is, unless you are claiming to be brenda, there is no other role you could have other than a regular highlander.

so, with the number of players still in the game, there is no way this could be an endgame move (there would have to be 3 wolves left), which makes a 1 for 1 exchange acceptable to me

vote heinz
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:25 PM   #529
Barkeep49
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Vote heinz

I'm not worried about the wolf end game. After all there can only be one and right now there are many more than one.
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:26 PM   #530
claphamsa
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eh, keep arguing heinze
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:42 PM   #531
saldana
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welcome back barkeep. where the hell have you been
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:42 PM   #532
Barkeep49
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Remember if we get a 1-1 ratio, it's not necessarily game over for the villagers.
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:46 PM   #533
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Vote Heinz
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:47 PM   #534
jeheinz72
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well heinz, the bad news is, unless you are claiming to be brenda, there is no other role you could have other than a regular highlander.

so, with the number of players still in the game, there is no way this could be an endgame move (there would have to be 3 wolves left), which makes a 1 for 1 exchange acceptable to me

vote heinz

Yeah I'm not Brenda. I figure the real Brenda has no problem with this exchange since it eliminates 2 lynch possibilities either way and they can scan for the final two wolves.

I'd disagree on end-gamed-ness though (just as an aside, as I mentioned earlier, I fully expect no one to believe me, unless Brenda foolishly reveals her/himself, which I'm not expecting either).

10 players left, 7:3 right now

Lynch me today, Mustang tomorrow and let's say 3 night deaths over the next two nights (combo of duels and wolf kills). 5 deaths total, likely only 1 will be wolf. So then it's 3:2 pending a lynch. That's endgame. And that's assuming we don't have 2 2-death nights in a row.

And while the village will always have a chance in this game, giving the wolves vote control pretty much eliminates it.

But it's neither here nor there, I'm sure most of you could tell from my tone immediately following Mustangs hole-filled reveal, I'm not expecting to avoid death here. Since everyone's goal is to get to 1 player left, no one really is going to care who goes first, me or him, just that people are going who aren't them.
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:49 PM   #535
claphamsa
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weak
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:49 PM   #536
claphamsa
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vote heinze
vote night fall :P
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:50 PM   #537
jeheinz72
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weak

? I'm not even arguing, how can it be weak?
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:54 PM   #538
claphamsa
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cuz ur supposed to argue! and convince us the world is wrong. then we can lynch you anyways
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:54 PM   #539
claphamsa
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giving up is weak sauce!
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:55 PM   #540
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there is a big hole in your reasoning though heinz,. Let's pretend Mustang is a wolf and has made this claim. The wolves must consider the possibility that Brenda would come out to attack a false prophet. So I do not buy the false reveal idea.
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:56 PM   #541
jeheinz72
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Why would Brenda come out? She has to outlast us all as well. No sense giving up her ghost to wolf-hunt with no BG. She's as good as gone if she does that.

Hell, that above all else should be prime reason #1 that the reveal is false. So Mustang is the Seer and is effectively just giving up on the game here? Why on earth would he do that?
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:57 PM   #542
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cuz ur supposed to argue! and convince us the world is wrong. then we can lynch you anyways

Haha, I proved to everyone the world was wrong in the Congress game and man, that whole proving-the-world-is-wrong thing takes a lot of effort.
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Old 09-12-2008, 12:57 PM   #543
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VOTE JEHEINZ72
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Old 09-12-2008, 01:04 PM   #544
claphamsa
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Haha, I proved to everyone the world was wrong in the Congress game and man, that whole proving-the-world-is-wrong thing takes a lot of effort.
I know! its also entertaining
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Old 09-12-2008, 01:11 PM   #545
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OH MOTHERFUCKER!!!!

DAMN YOU PATH!!!

Philly's a tough town, DT.
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Old 09-12-2008, 01:13 PM   #546
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Narcizo and...path? I just saw it too.

Naw, that was my first duel just then. I thought it was Narcizo and Heinz but I'm not sure.
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Old 09-12-2008, 01:13 PM   #547
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Why would Brenda come out? She has to outlast us all as well. No sense giving up her ghost to wolf-hunt with no BG. She's as good as gone if she does that.

Hell, that above all else should be prime reason #1 that the reveal is false. So Mustang is the Seer and is effectively just giving up on the game here? Why on earth would he do that?

come on...you have been around long enough to know the answer to your own question and if the roles were reversed you would be expounding upon it....there is a point in ever game where the seer NEEDS to reveal...he has a wolf dead to rights and can clear a handful of villagers...if that means he has to die, so be it..thats his job.

as far as your math goes, first of all, you think this game started with 4 wolves...no way, not with as many PKs from non wolves as there has to be. second, if you are right and it is 7-3 right now...you die (6-3), say there is a duel that doesnt get a wolf , which there is a 1 in 3 chance of, plus a wolf kill tonight, to go to 4-3, mustang is automatic tomorrow, which makes it 4-2....we already have 2 cleared villagers so the chances for the wolves is slight at best.

no matter what way we cut it, you dying tonight is a good thing.
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Old 09-12-2008, 01:18 PM   #548
jeheinz72
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come on...you have been around long enough to know the answer to your own question and if the roles were reversed you would be expounding upon it....there is a point in ever game where the seer NEEDS to reveal...he has a wolf dead to rights and can clear a handful of villagers...if that means he has to die, so be it..thats his job.

as far as your math goes, first of all, you think this game started with 4 wolves...no way, not with as many PKs from non wolves as there has to be. second, if you are right and it is 7-3 right now...you die (6-3), say there is a duel that doesnt get a wolf , which there is a 1 in 3 chance of, plus a wolf kill tonight, to go to 4-3, mustang is automatic tomorrow, which makes it 4-2....we already have 2 cleared villagers so the chances for the wolves is slight at best.

no matter what way we cut it, you dying tonight is a good thing.

In a regular game of WW, where the ultimate goal for the villagers is a "team" win, I agree with you 100%.

Here though, there isn't a team win. There can only be one. Brenda has zero chance at being that one by revealing.

And look at the night kills? 1 in 3 nights? Only 4 duels in 3 days when I'm sure we all expected more. I think that points to there being 4 starting wolves.

But like I said, I'm resigned to dying, I get it, and frankly if the wolves picked on you sal and you made the same points, I'd see the tact of just voting you anyway which is what I surmise many are doing here. But you have to at least admit that you in all likelihood even realize what's going down here (a wolf is fake revealing), even if you're not changing your vote (since it doesn't matter as it pertains to you winning the game anyhow)
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Old 09-12-2008, 01:18 PM   #549
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VOTE JEHEINZ72

I see no reason to not trust Mustang's reveal.
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Old 09-12-2008, 01:25 PM   #550
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Here though, there isn't a team win. There can only be one. Brenda has zero chance at being that one by revealing.

I thought of that, but honestly, I have no idea how I could be 'the one' regardless. I have no dueling skills and I'm not a highlander. My major victory is rooting the wolves out.
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