Werewolf LXXI - Doomsday (GAME OVER. WOLVES WIN!)

[path12]

Crap. I feel a lot better about EagleFan now though.

ntn, who did you view?

[mccollins]

What was the case against Claphamsa again? Just acting weird? That's par for his course!

[PurdueBrad]

Why didn't the wolves kill the seer, worried about a bodyguard block?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Why didn't the wolves kill the seer, worried about a bodyguard block?

How would they know who the seer is?

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Why didn't the wolves kill the seer, worried about a bodyguard block?

my guess is they don't know the seer or bodyguard. ANd if I find them i ain't telling them. but today igot nothing. I looked at ITC and it says he is a villager . so I can't trust him yet.

[The Jackal]

Lost in all the fun of the writeup is the fact that we're down 4 villagers. We best make some better decisions today.

I see pass has avoided lynching two days in a row despite being a high-vote getter. I don't know if this was wolves trying to save him, or even if he's bad, but it's something to consider.

[ntndeacon]

so in case he doesn't get killed tonight . Seer it might not be a bad idea to look at ITC.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Why didn't the wolves kill the seer, worried about a bodyguard block?

no revealed seer yet, and ntn cant identify wolves, he can just distinguish between villagers with roles and villager without roles/wolves, and assuming there are a fair few of vanilla villagers that isnt necessarily helpful

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

my guess is they don't know the seer or bodyguard. ANd if I find them i ain't telling them. but today igot nothing. I looked at ITC and it says he is a villager . so I can't trust him yet.

This seems like a role that's way too easy to fake, especially since it's not even guaranteed to be in the game. I was thinking of waiting for ITC to corroborate your story, but of course he'll say he's a plain villager. Not only that, I don't want people thinking that you were trying to save me with the reveal.

VOTE NTNDEACON

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

my guess is they don't know the seer or bodyguard. ANd if I find them i ain't telling them. but today igot nothing. I looked at ITC and it says he is a villager . so I can't trust him yet.

why ITC?

seems like there are better choices such as SY or Pass.

[PurdueBrad]

Alright, I'm going to check the rules but I guess I want to put this out there before I do so you guys don't think I'm crazy. Inquisitor is not the seer? I just assumed he was, the same way magistrate=duke. If I'm wrong, than I'm just an idiot.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Alright, I'm going to check the rules but I guess I want to put this out there before I do so you guys don't think I'm crazy. Inquisitor is not the seer? I just assumed he was, the same way magistrate=duke. If I'm wrong, than I'm just an idiot.

Heh, sounds like me with the Witness yesterday. NC needs flashier names!

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

This seems like a role that's way too easy to fake, especially since it's not even guaranteed to be in the game. I was thinking of waiting for ITC to corroborate your story, but of course he'll say he's a plain villager. Not only that, I don't want people thinking that you were trying to save me with the reveal.

VOTE NTNDEACON

What? what kind of crap is that? If I am to reveal as a role I imagine there are much more likely roles that aren't in the game. And I would be afraid of duplicating someone elses role. I hadn't really considered that you might be a wolf until this comment.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Alright, I'm going to check the rules but I guess I want to put this out there before I do so you guys don't think I'm crazy. Inquisitor is not the seer? I just assumed he was, the same way magistrate=duke. If I'm wrong, than I'm just an idiot.

Check the rules I figured that's what you thought.
I had never heard of the Inquisitive either.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Alright, I'm going to check the rules but I guess I want to put this out there before I do so you guys don't think I'm crazy. Inquisitor is not the seer? I just assumed he was, the same way magistrate=duke. If I'm wrong, than I'm just an idiot.

nah check the rules, inquisitive can only find out villager's roles, and all wolves appear as villagers to him

[PurdueBrad]

Alrght, got it.

Why fake inquisitor? Meaningless role IMHO PLUS it could backfire if there is another.

I like the scan of ITC and if I understand the role right, the scan of "villager" that got returned means he either has no role or more importantly, is a wolf. I will take the chance after a couple odd votes:

vote I'm the Crew

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Lathum

why ITC?

seems like there are better choices such as SY or Pass.

Why ITC? it was because I knew nothing about him. and I know the effectiveness of staying out of the spotlight. I really figured our seer would view at least one of those.

[PurdueBrad]

Pass and ntn, I'm starting to think you guys are going at each other as villager-villager. I hadn't gotten a wolf-vibe off Pass (although that could change with the ntn vote) and I believe ntn's reveal because the risks are too big. We need to look elsewhere I think.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Pass and ntn, I'm starting to think you guys are going at each other as villager-villager. I hadn't gotten a wolf-vibe off Pass (although that could change with the ntn vote) and I believe ntn's reveal because the risks are too big. We need to look elsewhere I think.

I can see that. A run on ITC would really disturb me at this point, but a lot of that depends on what he says when he shows up.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I can see that. A run on ITC would really disturb me at this point, but a lot of that depends on what he says when he shows up.

Agreed, and my vote is kind of out there to force some sort of conversation from him as opposed to generating a run.

[The Jackal]

Meh, to play a little devil's advocate, though any fake role reveal is risky, the chances of an inquisitive, witness, and seer in a game with this amount of players is low enough that there may be no inquisitive.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Why ITC? it was because I knew nothing about him. and I know the effectiveness of staying out of the spotlight. I really figured our seer would view at least one of those.

fair enough.

His voting record and tendencies seem like he is trying to steer clear.

We now knoe he voted for a villager day 1 and I know he voted for a villager day 2.

Both throw away votes to boot.

[The Jackal]

I've voted pass two days in a row on really no solid lead, so I'm going to entertain other options today for sure. Let's not let the wolves slip through the cracks by only chipping in on villager arguments. Everyone needs to talk (someone just said that, I echo it).

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Alrght, got it.

Why fake inquisitor? Meaningless role IMHO PLUS it could backfire if there is another.

I like the scan of ITC and if I understand the role right, the scan of "villager" that got returned means he either has no role or more importantly, is a wolf. I will take the chance after a couple odd votes:

vote I'm the Crew

The thing is, ntn's reveal was just meaningful enough to save him. Then he outs ITC, and if says he's just a vanilla villager, he puts himself in danger of getting lynched, but if he says he has a role, he puts himself in danger of getting night-killed. It just seems like a no-win situation for him, and I'd rather not do that to him so early.

[Lathum]

Until there is a counter I see no reason to doubt NTN's reveal. I think we need to look elsewhere.

[The Jackal]

Just me or has Render been sorta quiet?

[PurdueBrad]

Voting breakdown by player's remaining (used the order on the front page):

Lathum- KWhit, Claph
Jackal- Pass, Pass
PB- ntn, Claphamsa
nfg22- Kwhit, Pass
Pass- Kwhit, Claph
Mccollins- Jackal, ntn
RendeR- Pass, Pass
Sonic Youth- nfg, Claph
ntndeacon- Pass, Claph
Path12- Pass, ntn
ImtheCrew- Claph, Lathum

Here are my very quick observations:

RendeR has been quiet and I'm curious about the two straight day's votes on Pass. Same with Jackal. What is pinging you guys so hard?

Sonic's switch today is tough, it even came after my vote, which came at the exact same time as Pass' self-defense vote. That's the closest thing we've had to a late switch I guess.

I'm the Crew has two throw away votes out there, one on a known good guy now.

Assuming we all just accept ntn's reveal, I'm not much better though with votes now on two known good guys.

I discount some of the KWhit votes from day one because people have said that they knew he was the Duke and therefore tried to form the COT, which I don't have any real reason to doubt.

[The Jackal]

With my two straight votes on Pass, it was completely off the idea that he'd make a good wolf teammate, and I had no reason to vote for anyone else that was compiling votes.

[path12]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

my guess is they don't know the seer or bodyguard. ANd if I find them i ain't telling them. but today igot nothing. I looked at ITC and it says he is a villager . so I can't trust him yet.

ITC? Why him? Why not someone who has been getting votes?

[path12]

I think I'd rather the seer took a look at ntn rather than ITC.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by path12

ITC? Why him? Why not someone who has been getting votes?

Hopefully you have read my response to this question that iwrote to Lathum. I am going to be out of pocket for a while. but Ishould be back this evening to address any further issues concerning my pick.

BTW I do not plan on letting it be known who the seer or bodyguard are if ifind them. Iwill simply say I won't say.

[Lathum]

OK, so we have 11 players left. Lets say we started with 4 wolves, there are now 3 left. Lets say we have a seer, inquisetor, fool, holy mark and angel ( bodyguard). That leaves 3 vanilla villagers. Obviously there are other roles available but I am trying to strike a balance.

NTN has a pool of 10 to scan. Of these 10 3 wolves + 3 villagers would come back as a villager, which means it is 50% ITC is a wolf.

obviously this is just guesswork, if anyone has suggestions on roles that started the game or number of wolves that started then the numbers are subject to change.

I went with 4 wolves because we already have 2 confirmed good roles plus NTN's uncountered claim.

I am assuming there are more good roles available which would equal more wolves.

[Lathum]

jesus, I was a threadkiller

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by mccollins

What was the case against Claphamsa again? Just acting weird? That's par for his course!

I never really saw this addressed. Though, here is Lathum's reasoning before his vote switch:

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK< so Clap is the other person pinging me right now...

As of now, the only thing I really have to go on are the people that switched off of ntnDeacon to claphamsa instead of Passacaglia.

Lathum made his switch last night and the others were in response to ntn's reveal. I look more at the late switchers since Pass had more votes than clap when they switched. If you're just looking to change the lynch target, why not switch to the person with the next highest number of votes?

[Lathum]

I can't speak for anyone else but I switched to Clap because he cast an ultra early vote both days.

[ImTheCrew]

im not a many of many words, or good at wording words but...

[ImTheCrew]

man*

[ImTheCrew]

my first vote for clap, just a random first day. i find it very hard to spot anything on day1.

Lathum, my second vote, still tried to accouse me for voting for clap day one( early Throwaway) when he himself led the charge for him getting elminated


other thoughts: maybe coverd but why was NTN not killed?
Not important enough?
wolf wasnt on between the time he came out and the lynching?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

other thoughts: maybe coverd but why was NTN not killed?
Not important enough?
wolf wasnt on between the time he came out and the lynching?

because the seer is more important and NTN can't out wolves 100%

[Lathum]

led the charge on Clap?

I cast the first vote. If anyone in the clap vote looks guilty it's sonic youth, he put the nail in the coffin.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

other thoughts: maybe coverd but why was NTN not killed?
Not important enough?
wolf wasnt on between the time he came out and the lynching?

maybe they were afraid the bodyguard would block them

[Lathum]

looking back on Sonic youth he threw his vote away day one then day 2 cast the final vote on Clap.

[The Jackal]

why did he cast the final vote on clap?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Lathum

led the charge on Clap?

I cast the first vote. If anyone in the clap vote looks guilty it's sonic youth, he put the nail in the coffin.

That's the one I'm curious about. Pass wouldn't move from ntn to himself. However, Sonic was 7 posts later (472-479) and was probably just following the crowd after the reveal (since PurdueBrad's first and only vote was 473).

[Lathum]

Vote Sonic Youth

Day 1 his vote was a total throw away

Day 2 he had a choice with his late vote to go with Pass or Clap and he went with Clap. Now it could be possible it was villager vs. villager. But I think if we find out Sonic Youths alligence we may learn alot about Pass.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

With my two straight votes on Pass, it was completely off the idea that he'd make a good wolf teammate, and I had no reason to vote for anyone else that was compiling votes.

This is basically my reasoning as well. Pass is an excellent player on either side of the game, I've yet to see or hear any reasoning that pulls me away from worrying MORE that he was selected by the alpha wolf.

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote Sonic Youth

Day 1 his vote was a total throw away

Day 2 he had a choice with his late vote to go with Pass or Clap and he went with Clap. Now it could be possible it was villager vs. villager. But I think if we find out Sonic Youths alligence we may learn alot about Pass.

I am concerned with this as well lathum. You make a compelling argument here.


As for why I've been quiet, hrm, deadline is 10am, I've been busy with things at work and today I spent 3 hours at the dentists office to find out I have dirty teeth, so realy, its just been lack of time on my part. I'm here, I'm reading, I just don't have a lot to say lately. All part of my "New and Inproved RendeR the WW player" persona.

Its far better than Admiral Furious, dontcha think?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Its far better than Admiral Furious, dontcha think?

after seeing your picture I think so

[ImTheCrew]

im off till 7 am tommorow morning im sticking with Lathum as of right now

VOTE LATHUM

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote Sonic Youth

Day 1 his vote was a total throw away

Day 2 he had a choice with his late vote to go with Pass or Clap and he went with Clap. Now it could be possible it was villager vs. villager. But I think if we find out Sonic Youths alligence we may learn alot about Pass.

The same can be said about Render(387) and Jakal(396). How is that different from what you said about Pas and mine? It's much too circumstancial at this time.

I gave ntndeacon the benefit of the doubt of his saying in post 466 that he was the inquisitive was the reason for my vote change.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Sonic Youth

The same can be said about Render(387) and Jakal(396). How is that different from what you said about Pas and mine? It's much too circumstancial at this time.

I gave ntndeacon the benefit of the doubt of his saying in post 466 that he was the inquisitive was the reason for my vote change.

I think that's a key point. Also, doesn't anyone find it odd that ITC didn't even mention ntn's scan? I guess there's really not much to be said about it, but you'd think he would have at least acknowledged it. I'm willing to wait and see what happens -- my hunch is that ITC is waiting to see which way the wind blows before saying too much.